Titilating Thursday

10:20 am (Hawaii) Quite a stimulating session for bulls. I was asleep, away in Dreamland. Must've been good. I don't remember a thing, but my countenance is even. Meanwhile, the indices finished positive. The Nas up for an eighth day in a row.

I stayed out after watching the open. I missed this run up and I didn't want to catch the inevitable fall down. As expected, hotties XG and EXK made pit stops today after major moves higher. XG down 0.8% to 14.37 (afterhours) and EXK down 0.5% to 9.66.

More numbers came out today, more positive for the market, but really, it's all momentum based on the assumption that the debt ceiling will be raised and that the Eurozone has a better grip on its debt crisis for now. It's like this: FAS and FAZ are at extremes from one day to the next, regardless of how the indices are doing. Logically, FAZ should be crushing, but there's JPM (+1.9%), Citi (+1.7%), BAC (+1.7%), STD (+1.2%), GS (+0.9%) and so on. All these banksters eventually will run out of government handouts. Just a matter of when the plug gets pulled and they start gagging on their own poison. I don't think the big boys will die. They'll just languish until the market corrects itself without the life support provided by the doomed fractional reserve system.

My Metals list is 71% green, but the depth of huge gainers has been reduced. "Only" 18 issues gained at least 1.5%. FAS and UCO are in this list as convenient indicators for the broader view, but both were up more than 4% today. REE (+3.8%), PALL (+2.8%), MCP (+2.5%), CU (+2.4) were very strong for the rare earths and non-gold, non-silver traders. Copper's recent run hasBrother Turd pointing to a possible repeat of its run of last year.

You've probably been wondering about that, too. With Greece and the global debt crises, so much is similar to last year's market behavior: Lackluster in the spring, total launching pad in July and rocket ship action to the end of the year. Is that going to happen again in 2011? If they kick the proverbial can down the road again, it's clear the big money would like this to be so. Self-fulfilling prophecy and all that.

But I would add this: volume is sinking as this hot streak of the past week-plus continues. Here's a look at today's big winners on my Metals list.

FAS - volume up today compared to yesterday

UCO - volume way up, nearly double

REE - volume lower

PALL - volume lower

MCP - volume lower

CU - volume higher

AGQ - volume lower

PSLV - volume similar

AVL - volume lower

JJC - volume lower

COPX - volume HUGE

GG - volume higher

XME - volume lower

PLTM - volume higher

PGM - volume lower

AG - volume lower

DBB - volume similar

GOLD - volume higher

AGOL - volume higher

PPLT - volume HUGE

SLV - volume lower

WITE - volume lower

DBS - volume lower

Those are the metals on my list that were up more than 1%. For the most part, volume was lower today going into tomorrow's key report. It's been a quiet week, news wise, in Europe, and last week's end-of-month window dressing has carried over.

My Regular watch list is 78% green with PSUN, yes that PSUN (occasionally loved by Le Fly) up 10.2% today. There's better depth here than in my Metals list.

PSUN - volume HUGE

WNR - volume up big

VCLK - volume up

VLO - volume up HUGE

FCX - volume up HUGE

LVS - volume up HUGE

MNW - volume up

SWY - volume lower

RLOC - volume lower

CLNE - volume lower

GOOG - volume higher

ENY - volume similar

USO - volume higher

AMRN - volume higher

APC - volume similar

OWW - volume lower

FORM - volume higher

MSFT - volume higher.

All of these are stocks that gained at least 2% with the exception of MSFT (+1.8%). AAPL (+1.6%) moved up to 357 on lower volume. AMZN up 1.5% on higher volume. BIDU up 0.8% on similar volume. NFLX up 0.8% on lower volume.

It's good to be aware of the surroundings. Not everyone had the foresight to park money in NFLX, PCLN and AAPL below 50 and forget about it for a few years.

Wrestling with Oil

8:45 am (Hawaii) It's the 1st of April, but there is hardly a fool in the market today. 64% of my watch list is green. With so many bear plays on my list, 64% is pretty close to Pure Bull Pandemonium. 

Oil is breaking higher. WNR, Le Fly's first oil-refinery play since the Japan disaster, is above 18. Holy cash cow! WNR is up 6.6% to 18.15, a HOD, after closing below 17 yesterday. I'm still in bed, observing the world through my laptop, and haven't watched or read any global news yet. Has Libya blown up? Have the Saudis raised the price of crude? 

I see UCO up 2.5% to 58.47. APC is up 1% to 82.77. But really, refiners have been the play of intelligence. Fly was right about the need for crude particularly when Japan went into rebuild mode and WNR is a logical play no matter what else happens bullish or bearish. 

YZC, that crazy China coal play, is up 4.6% to 37.96. As oil costs rise, the Chinese continue looking to manufacture cheap energy. Coal is logical. 

Also up: HAIN (+3.2%, 33.34), NFLX (+2.4%, 243.60), MOS (+2.2%, 80.47), LVS (+3.7%, 43.77), F (+2.6%, 15.29). 

AAPL opened above 351 (while I slept soundly), but has retreated again and is below 348. I've been busy attending other matters this week, but managed to catch a piece of Fast Money late last night on the DVR. The traders are skeptical about AAPL going higher from here due to the (perception of?) parts shortages due to Japan. The one trader who I tend to agree a little more with on this was Brian Kelly, who emphasized the huge demand for Apple products (iPad 2). What's a couple more weeks of waiting? I agree. AAPL won't hit 400 as soon as most of us thought, but it'll get there. 

Big losers with 75 minutes left in the session: AZK (-4.6%, 6.70), EDZ (-4.2%, 17.12), CHGS (-3.9%, 2.92), PSUN (-3%, 3.51), TVIX (-2.7%, 35.30), GG (-1.4%, 49.11). The metals were flat earlier, but have filled up the red side of my watch list. Besides AZK, there's EXK (-0.7%, 9.75), SLW (-0.8%, 43.00) and PHYS, GLD are slightly down. GLD actually rallied some after gapping down to 138 at the open. 

It's obviously a trader's market. If I can get more comfortable with sectors like crude oil — UCO would be a great hedge to the rising cost of gas ($4.19 in Honolulu) — it wouldn't be so hard to get a grasp of. 

Monday bull party

(11:30 am, Hawaii) Talk about complete melt-up. At one point, when I wasn't sleeping through the session, my watch list was 83% green. That's basically bullish to the extreme since the other 17% are mostly bear plays.

DJIA +1.5%, Nasdaq +1.8%, S&P 500 +1.5%.

Volume wasn't great in AAPL (14.7M), but the 2.7% run from 330.67 (Friday) to 339.73 (afterhours today) is incredible. The 100-day moving average was tested three days in a row (Wed/Thur/Fri) before bouncing today. Will the 50-day MA (346+) prove to be a ceiling?

Everything with a pulse move up, from BIDU (+3%) and GOOG (+2.6%) to Japan (EWJ (+2.2%). The yen softened; FXY slightly down (-0.4%).

LVS gained 6.4%, while other recent gainers like OPEN (+2.4%) and HAIN (+2.5%) rose.

Precious metals roared. SLW gained 5.9% to 42.25 (afterhours). EXK +5.1% to 9.62, PAAS +3.6%, PHY +2.4%, SLV +3.2%. NGD +3.4% and GLD +0.7%. Great day for the metal bugs. SLW and EXK ranked second and third on my list of gainers.

WNR, Le Fly's favorite oil refiner play, gained 4.4% to 21.59. UCO gained 1.1% (53.33).

Big losers were TVIX (-15.4%, 44.85), VXX (-7.5%, 32.70), TZA (-7.1%), EDZ (-5.1%) and QID (-3.6%). PSUN also sold off again, down 1.9% to 3.62. C also fell 1.6% to 4.43. Interestingly, X dropped 0.6%.

I'm content to stay in cash here until the puzzle is solved. Which is probably never going to happen. AAPL is my vehicle of preference, and if the runway clears for a flight to new highs, I'll get a ticket. Until then, this is a range-bound titan, from 326 to 360, and there is money to be made in that space. Hat's off to those who bought at 330 on Friday.

Bloomberg: Tokyo Electric says Fukushima fuel rods damaged, leak to sea (Mar 21 2011)
Reuters: Oil lifted by Mideast unrest, Libya conflict (Mar 21 2011)
Bloomberg: Japan futures, nuclear stocks advance as reactor crisis eases (Mar 21 2011)
Business Times: AT&T's big deal lifts Wall St (Mar 21 2011)
AP: Developments in Japan's disasters, nuclear crisis (Mar 21 2011)
Business Insider: What about the Plutonium MOX? (Mar 21 2011)
The Guardian: Google accuses China of interfering with Gmail system (Mar 21 2011)

Freaky Friday: Options Expiration

Watch list preview for the day. It's options expiration and the market is teetering at a level that could lead to a healthy pullback. In other words, any trader not exercising caution could get shredded.

If you like candlestick charts, here's the status of my watch list, courtesy of American Bulls.

AAPL — hold
AMZN — buy if
APC — buy if
ARMH — sell if
BIDU — hold
C — sell if
CLR — buy confirmed (Thursday)
CMG — hold
CSTR — wait
DIS — hold
EGPT — buy if
EXK — sell if
F — sell confirmed (Thursday)
FAS — hold
FCX — sell confirmed (Thursday)
GLD — hold
GMCR — wait
GNK — sell if
GOOG — hold
HAIN — sell if
IPI — buy confirmed (Thursday)
LULU — buy if
LVS — hold
MOS — hold
NFLX — hold
NGD — sell confirmed (Thursday)
OIH — hold
OPEN — buy if
PSUN — wait
QID — buy if
RLOC — hold
SBUX — buy if
SLV — buy if
TBT — buy if
TLT — sell if
TVIX — n/a
UCO — hold
VCLK — wait
VXX — wait
VZ — buy confirmed (Thursday)
X — wait
XVIX — n/a

Update, 5:44 am (Hawaii). So dependent on Red Bull. I kept an eye on the "buy if" watch list (six stocks only) and SLV really intrigued me. Always has for many reasons. But it was trading above its opening price of 31.08 on up to about 31.17, in that range, while the rest of the market was flat. Then I nodded off. It was a few minutes at most. Woke up and SLV was at 31.25 or so. Kept right on going, big run and settled into the 31.30s. I opened a position, with the stochastics swinging low, saving a lot of powder for other opportunities.

SLV has made a massive run from 26 in the past three weeks, and with equities peaking short term and so much uncertainty in the Middle East (oil), metals are so shiny and attractive. For now. I still don't trust the possibilities on options expiry. I think SLV holders are ready to cash in profits after holding from 26, 27, 28, 29. It's human nature to collect that beautiful bounty before the weekend begins. So I hope to be out of this trade before lunch hour hits the East Coast.

My position is small, so even another big run today won't make a huge profit for me, but I am aiming to get familiar with the price movement and rhythm of SLV. It could be a nice, steady trading vehicle for some time, especially with AAPL in the doldrums (355).

Update, 6:18 am (Hawaii). Added more SLV at 31.56. Hesitated on stochastics (low) and MACD at 31.51, but no regrets. Huge buys came in moments after my addition, now at 31.68. This is too hot and I don't assume anything about where SLV will close today, but the news surrounding the physical metal is bullish, bullish, bullish. For today.


Bob Kirtley: Silver prices just starting to warm up (see Chinese demand)

Update, 11:27 am (Hawaii). It's been so long since I actually stayed up through the night and morning to follow the market. Normally, I sleep in or get a decent nap. This time, Red Bull and a position in SLV had me buzzed and stoked. That's where I have to deal with this plain fact: once emotion enters the realm of any trade I'm in, good goes bad. 

It was roughly 7:30 am when SLV was hovering at 32 and I had a decent paper profit, far more than I expected that quickly. I'll take a 1.2% profit for just three hours of "work" any time. But I took a phone call that was lengthy and the topics were both sad and happy. Emotion. By the time I hung up, SLV was still slightly above 32. Knowing that I entered midway through today's momentum, exiting at lunchtime (Eastern time) was the game plan. 

But I realize now that emotion clouded my thinking. I was shaking off the effects of the conversation, but also feeling a bit high about the fun of a daytrade. I haven't bought and sold anything on the same day with a solid profit in a long time. Most trades cover a few days. So I sat there and watched. And watched. And eventually, right on cue, the selling began after lunch. I held and held all the way down to 31.55, a shade above my cost basis.

I knew it was too late to get out. The old adage, Get out fast or don't get out at all, so true, true, true. My mental stop was right above my cost basis. If SLV froze at 31.55, I wouldn't mind holding it over the weekend, either. But the game plan was in and out, and I failed. I couldn't stay locked in that failure, though.

The market remained somewhat robust, closing in the green. SLV picked up, dropped off, repeat ... eventually, buyers returned, i.e. traders going long rather than the shorts who got squeezed royally in the morning. SLV is at 31.85 afterhours. 

The retrace today from its high of 32.13 down to 31.55 is EXACTLY 61.8% (going back to yesterday's closing price of 31.03). For you Fibonacci devotees out there, this is proof that you are geniuses. 

Watching SLV trade for hours was quite an experience. The MACD is undeniably indicative of direction of price. That never failed. I didn't want to believe, but I don't matter to MACD. Also, by the final hour, I gave up watching the 1-minute chart. It was exhausting. The 5-minute did just fine for a position like mine, which is not huge, not tiny. 

Another observation: Once the lots on the Ask side become smaller than the Bid size, SLV goes poof! Early on, during the run to 32+, lot sizes of 20,000 and more poured through on the Ask side. After it hit is high of the day, the Asks shrank until the final 45 minutes. Numbers just don't lie. 

So, I screwed up. Maybe I should turn off the phone during market hours (3 am to 3 pm Hawaii time). Maybe I should tune out human existence in my life 12 hours a day. But if I'd sold at half of 1 percent or 1 percent flat off the top, I'd have my pocket-change profit. I'd have satisfaction. I would probably not have reestablished a position, though. 

I'm prepared, though, to roll with this trade and see it through to Tuesday. Unless SLV does something unexpected in AH. Note to self: write up every possible scenario and have a solution.


Update, 12:47 pm (Hawaii). A look at how today's "buy if" stocks turned out. The market opened flat, so the buy-if mandate is to see how each stock fared after the opening bell. If it stays above opening price, potential buy. If it opens lower, no deal. 

All "buys" listed here are in theory only.

SLV — previous close 31.03; open 31.08; 31.95 afterhours (+2.8% since opening bell)

SBUX — previous close 33.50; open 33.37; not a buy (but turned out +1.9% since opening bell)

TBT — previous close 39.97; open 40.28; 40.14 afterhours (-0.03% since opening bell)

LULU — previous close 82.44, open 83.24; 82.13 afterhours (-1.3% since opening bell)

APC — previous close 81.30; open 81.15; not a buy (dropped to 80.96 in afterhours)

AMZN — previous close 187.76; open 187.55; not a buy (dropped to 186.31 afterhours)

EGPT — previous close 18.99; open 19.00; not a buy (18.73 afterhours)

OPEN — previous close 92.89; open 92.52; not a buy (89.96 afterhours)

So, the only two buys based on the candlestick approach would've been SLV and TBT. The best performers were SLV and SBUX. Aside from theory, I actually did open a position in SLV, still holding here.


Update, 2:49 pm (Hawaii). Some charts of SLV. First, a one-year chart with comparison to GLD, AAPL and the S&P 500. Then a two-day chart. Note: there are some concerns that short attacks may arrive next week. I may still unload my position in the next 10 minutes before the AH session closes. 

Turnaround Thursday

10:03 am (Hawaii). Got up an hour ago and the market has bounced back moderately. Manufacturing numbers out of Philadelphia, CNBC says, were the catalyst.

AAPL still hovering at 358, but metals continue to rock. SLV (+3.5%) and EXK (2.3%) are up big thanks to chaos in the Middle East (Day of Rage). SLV up almost in a straight line since January 26.

VXX (+1.4%) still up. Won't be touching that due to overnight contango effect.

LVS is up again (1.2%), now 48.82. I remember it trading to the low 46s after its earnings report two weeks ago. AMZN, VZ, CMG all up.

AAPL was actually at the bottom red end of my watch list early in the session, but has been replaced by RLOC and GMCR (-4.5%).

I've come to accept that the protests and rioting of the Middle East have become a combined catalyst that will not cease for weeks, if not months. That makes oil, gold and silver prominent, almost on par with a former "safe haven" like AAPL. Not interested in chasing SLV here, but I'll stay tuned for the next news event. Will there be another Day of Rage? Of course. People there are pissed.

EXK has traded in a range of roughly 5.50 to 7.50 for since November. At 7.20, it may be ready to break out. I wrote last year that speculators and traders had pointed out silver as an unappreciated vehicle, that there was massive hoarding going on. Whether that's true or ever was, the extremes of the past few months in the price are a great opportunity. EXK has a  float of 68.6 million shares and miniscule debt ($337K). The numbers are positive up and down, but this is a tiny company ($82.3 million revenue). At 5.50, a great buy in this environment. At 7 plus, watch out. Is it worth the risk? Will the rubber band yank it back when it touches 7.50?

SLV is also almost too hot to touch by most indicators. Traded between 26 and 30.50 since November and today is at a threshold (31) on increased volume. Tempting. I've always liked physical silver — looking at it more than owning it — so the appreciation of the metal is something to handle. As a piece of paper, it will always be a risk. Any government can seize paper assets of metals. It's happened before (long ago). But right now, SLV and EXK are alluring.

AAPL might be a great buy here at 357, but even without any Steve Jobs health issue, it always has pullbacks after earnings. I'm not willing to park into a position and wait for a catalyst. I'm willing to wait for a great price. But clearly, this is not just about Steve Jobs or app subscriptions. It's also about our personal issues with diseases like cancer. If we're comfortable enough with how the disease is treated, how it has affected our families and how we've dealt with it, the media circus around Mr. Jobs matters less. But there are still many traders and investors with panic buttons when it comes to anything negative or perceived as negative about the CEO. 

One nice healthy photo of Mr. Jobs and Mr. Obama tonight could set shares on fire again. 

NFLX, LULU and other momo movers are fun if you can take the heat. I prefer something cooler with a P/E I can trust. Doesn't mean I won't touch momos. But I know my preference and I'll work with it.

Purely momentus

3:25 am (Hawaii). Is the pit stop already over? In lieu of a real pullback of 5 or 10%, the market is awash in green numbers on my iMac screen. It's stunning, confounding ... I'm all cash and happy to be there, but sans bad news, the market is possibly ready to take flight once again without me.

AAPL is set to gap higher if it holds here at 361.44. A 50% retrace from today's premarket high to 360.74 or so, would've been a nice entry point for a short-term trade, but it wouldn't even come back to 361 even. I may be a whore for this stock, but there's a limit to how much I'll chase. Must maintain a shred of dignity and discipline. Or not.

A gap here could be a runaway freight train, a cliche that invites an image of a perilous crash. Whatever. I just think that above 360 AAPL could run several more dollars higher. Pull back. Run again. Pull back. It's a fund manager's must-have. Who can blame any of them? The world's reigning filthy-rich megastock with a ridiculously low P/E, 75% growth YOY and $59 billion under the matress.

Yesterday, AAPL touched 361 in premarket and never got close after the opening bell. But with 3/4ths of my watch list green, is it reasonable to assume that all of these stocks are being played by the specialists? Don't think so.

What else is green in premarket? VCLK (+12.9%), POT, LVS, NFLX, EGPT, on and on and on. More like, what's not green? That would be HAIN (big run lately), TBT, OPEN, QID, ARMH, VXX, RLOC.

Update, 4:33 am (Hawaii). Missed the 50% retrace of AAPL. Came all the way down to 360.50 or so but I was cautious about such a steep drop after the opening bell. Then it moved back to 361.50-plus within a minute. Volume is definitely there. This may be liftoff, after all.

Update, 5:20 am (Hawaii). AAPL to the moon, now 362.68. Major buying pressure the past 10 minutes, from 361.20 almost nonstop higher. The move came along with positive divergence in MACD. Missed my chance at the opening bell on the 50%-plus retrace from yesterday's close. Oh well ...

Next retrace (50%) entry is 361.35. Not expecting a pullback to that level, but I won't chase.

Update, 5:26 am (Hawaii). 50% retrace would be 361.45 now. HOD is 363.00. Likely was a short squeeze. AAPL longs having a party.

Update, 8:36 am (Hawaii). Somewhere, the angel in charge of stock moves is shaking his head and giggling at me. Really. As I drifted into slumber — hey, it was early morning and even two Red Bulls overnight couldn't keep me up longer — Newton's Law took effect. AAPL came back down to earth after touching 364.90. In fact, AAPL retraced even mote than 50% (of the day's gain) and bottomed at 361.42. (Retrace was nearly 70%.)

Maybe I should've put in a limit buy order, but falling asleep wasn't in my plan and I don't care for hard orders of any kind. Anyway, after hitting that level, AAPL ramped up and rose to 363.44, a gain of $2. In the past hour or so, shares have meandered around 363 and change.

So, I've been in cash all day, amazed by the spike in AAPL, not a penny made. Not a penny lost either. The market remains in the green, but gains are not as broad as they were earlier.

Update, 9:21 am (Hawaii). The two major drops in AAPL (and to an extent, the general market) were at 11:21 am (Eastern) and 12:01 pm (Eastern). There aren't many steady declines in the stock nowadays. It's gradual, no-selling pressure climbs that peak and get sold off violently. Whether they're activated by robots or retail stop-loss orders is not the issue. AAPL is top-heavy, a big dude who can bench press 700 pounds who also has pencil legs and tips over at the slightest breeze of 1-2 mph.

Shares are still up more than 3 bucks for the day (almost 1%). Without a catalyst, the guess here is that late-arriving funds have established their positions since Monday. There's no edge to buying here at 363 as a retail trader unless a final-hour buying spree kicks in. I'll be much more willing if shares get below 362 again.

9:55 am (Hawaii). So, Disney and Apple drawing new lines in the sand today. Disney tells Netflix and Coinstar wholesale rates are going up for its films. Apple making that 30% cut the anchor rate of sorts across its app store. Anyone still think Steve Jobs really isn't working behind the scenes at both companies? His prints are all over this. Good for profit margins at DIS and AAPL.

11:01 am (Hawaii). Opened a position in AAPL before the closing bell. Today's volume (16+ million shares) and the short-term base at 363+ provided an opportunity off the HOD (364.90). Not a perfect entry point (sub 362 was ideal) and shares could trade down to 360 (options expiry in two days). Rumor on Boy Genius Report about Verizon and Apple disappointed with iPhone 4 sales.

12:52 pm (Hawaii). Out of AAPL with a small loss (-2.83/sh). I saw shares dip excessively from 363 to 362 in a flash, then head lower and lower. Finally saw links on Twitter about Steve Jobs being spotted leaving Stanford Cancer Center. Instead of waiting around, I just stepped out of the trade and took the small loss. (Half of 1 percent of bankroll.) Figures that no matter how cautious I am, trying not to hold overnight most of the time, the slightest bit of negative news can send AAPL off a cliff. Soft landing, at least this time. Shares bounced off sub 360 and are now at 361+. Back to 100% cash. Best wishes to Mr. Jobs.

9:59 pm (Hawaii). Free time once again. Nice to see that Steve Jobs is meeting with a bunch of techies and a certain individual named Barack Obama tomorrow night for dinner. Looking back, I don't regret erring on the side of caution and getting out of my AAPL trade. That was no mistake. My concern about the public's perception of Jobs going to the doctor was the only factor, and I was right to get out in case AAPL went off the rails (far lower than 360+.

My position did not give me an edge of any kind. Longs who got in at 50 or 100 easily brushed the Enquirer and Daily News stories off like nothing. But those of us who are trading AAPL now are probably much more sensitive to unexpected news and price movement because our position is far more vulnerable. Therein lies the rub. I chased AAPL afterhours, and in the end, I paid the price. It was an odd set of circumstances, but the crux of it all is it was my own fault. The trade itself didn't cost me much, but the execution and price point were mediocre. There's much to learn from today's trade gone bad. It's not about the dollars. It's about discipline. I'm still learning.

The lack of discipline goes back to the opening bell, when AAPL sold off after gapping up. I had my entry point in mind, but did not follow through. Soon enough, AAPL ran from 361 to almost 365.

Two examples of a lack of discipline. To trade AAPL requires a modicum of faith sprinkled on solid discipine. I need both, really.

Catching up, Thursday

Business Insider: Murabak Supporters Storming Cairo, two NYT reporters arrested
Daily Mail: One journalist killed, dozens more attacked
Wall Street Journal: Egyptian VP: Protestors must go home
Emerging Markets: Muslim Brotherhood disavows radical rhetoric
CNBC Fast Money: China's Commodities
CNBC FM: Khouw bullish on LVS (earnings after the bell)

Bulls run wild

S&P 500 closed at 907.24, above that magical 903.25 threshold. Dow up 214, Nas up 44. Positive housing numbers fueled it, plus Obama's speech about eliminating loopholes for corporations that take jobs overseas.

I did a little of everything. Held core positions in LVS, AAPL (small but growing), debated whether to sell DRYS (I held) and F (I held). Traded some LVS for a gain twice. It was so hot, would've been better off letting it run. Closed at 9.50. Amazing. Felt like black jack dealers were dealing the stock all day. Best profits in awhile, but still cautious about losing paper profits.

Used some discipline, not chasing much at all today. Would love to catch LVS and DRYS on a pullback tomorrow. Market has to breathe sooner or later.

LVS at pivotal point

Las Vegas Sands. Debt. Gambling. Overage (buildout). However you describe it, LVS is true to its DNA. They risk big, win big, lose big. Quite awhile back, I took a look and found that LVS was interesting but not attractive. That was about $100 ago.

Now, even after rising from an all-time low of 1.38 to a recent intraday high of 9.05, it's a risk. Not everything has been resolved, though I tend to think LVS will bounce back strong. Just a hunch. It'll be a long, long time before the stock returns to 120. For now, resistance at 9 is a thick ceiling. If and when LVS busts through, it has to take out 16.81. Then it might be off to the races.

For anyone who bought below 5, you're sitting pretty, I think. I got in a little at 5.77, sold at 6.95, forgetting that Guy Adami had handicapped LVS to hit 8.00-8.50. Now that LVS is at 8.00, it could sell off again and get buyers a better price. Then again, it's sold off since hitting 9.05 on Thursday.

Never took a close look at WYNN or MGM. Why? I never stayed there. My only trip to Vegas, I was put in the Venetian (work-related conference). That stuck.

I'm long LVS just a bit and may add if it dips to 7ish. Holding for 10. Maybe 16.80. Possibly 50.

Wish List

For core holdings:

AAPL (tech/retail/electronics)
AMZN (retail)
ATVI (gaming)
AXP (credit card)
BIDU (China/search/advertising)
F (possibly the lone US automaker by 2010)
FLS (infrastructure)
GOOG (search/advertising)
GS (financial)
LVS (casino)
MCD (dining/international)
NTES (China/gaming)

Tying down loose ends

It's a must. Two of the past three days have been the biggest trading losses for me in the past month. Otherwise, most trades have been wins. One huge reason was the 6-week bull run from the market's bottoms. Another reason was selectivity, something I had more of before this week.

The biggest reason, though, is that I didn't use stop-loss sell orders on trades for BAC and FAS. That takes consistency and discipline. I used them earlier in the day (losses on FAZ), but simply acted the dunderhead later. Chances are that the two stocks will swing back up and I'll break even. Nothing is guaranteed, though. That's why trailing stops are key.

Also added a few LVS shares at 5.77 in after hours yesterday. I missed a chance to get them on Tuesday at 5.07 in AH after learning about some positive news. Trading above 6 in premarket today. Adami says it should be above 8.50. We'll see.

Stress test results for financials tomorrow. Stress for shareholders, too. In a perfect world, I'll be out of financials by then.

Punting WFC

Of course, as soon as I sell, WFC runs up a bit.

Sold my shares at 19.12 after seeing it dip to 18.33 earlier. Choppy, down market overall, but WFC has been churning through this 19 area for a few days now. I have some freed-up cash now, but it's slim pickins.

C is doing well, up to 4.48 earlier and holding strong in the 4.40 area despite the market. Watching LVS, DNDN (talk about an old heartbreak), BAC and something called ONTY, which could be a sympathy play to DNDN's prostate cancer drug.

Second wave

7:35 a.m.
Citigroup powering through 3.50. Remarkable.

After laboring through 3.45 for a better part of the morning (well, it's 1:35 p.m. in NYC), C is blasting off again. So is WFC, which slid back after gapping down and pushing up (and slipping to 19).

Still watching GS, BAC and LVS. My long-term wish list includes AAPL, but it's up to 120 again. GS earnings report before the bell tomorrow sets the tone. Even if Goldman announces dilution (to raise funds to offset TARP), C might not get hit hard; Citigroup has already announced plans to reverse split the stock, so there won't be any further (proposed) dilution. It's already factored into the stock price.

Strong opening hour

Haven't gone long GOOG yet. No need to. In fact, I'd go long AAPL first. For now, an hour into today's session, C is up 12% to 3.42. Serious resistance at this level, but no complaints from me. It moved fluidly, not the usual million-share blocks on either side to slow it down.

WFC gapped down with the rest of the market (Dow -77 points), but is back at break-even (19.60). BAC is still moving, now at 10.31.

LVS hit 5.00 earlier. I sold it on Thursday at 4.45. I didn't know Steve Wynn would interview on 60 Minutes over the weekend. If I had some extra cash, I'd look for a pullback on LVS and maybe BAC. But I'm up 9% so far. With GS reporting tomorrow, I'm not looking to sell C or WFC yet.

No dice

Out of LVS at 4.45 for a tie. At this price, it's already 10% up today, but it was a calculated risk on my part to see if it would get back to 5.00 (which it hit on Monday).

No question, I'll use the new cash to get into another financial. Maybe GS. Maybe BAC, which ran from 9.40 to 9.78 in the past 10 minutes. Might hit 10 before close. Crazy, but BAC has quite a bit in common with Wells Fargo ... Tempting to buy more C, but I'm overweight there. C is finally topping the 3.00 mark (3.02) again.

Banking on Vegas, Macao

Wind back the clock a bit to 4:40 a.m. HST.
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) was available at 4.45
Bank of America (BAC) was at 8.48.

I opted to "diversify" even with short-term trades and picked up a few shares of LVS. (I already have shares of Citigroup and Wells Fargo.)

Fast-forward more than 4 hours. LVS is hovering at 4.46. BAC surged and is at 9.35.

Crud. Not complaining, but I'll keep an eye on this. Might be a lesson to it. When one sector has such bullish news from premarket on, I might approach things a little differently next time.

In for now

Back in WFC at 18.93 ... not the ideal entry point, but I'm willing to chisel in and accumulate. Once the institutions pile in, it will be at 18 no more.

Also dipped into LVS at 4.45, which is off its recent high around 5. (I stayed at The Venetian once and indulgent as that was for a working trip, how can I forget?)

Hated to see STP trading at 14.50 earlier -- after I sold yesterday at 12.95. Oww. But if I can make it up by staying fluid and trading the next day in an up market, it should balance out enough. Minimizing risk versus making a profit.

C is nowhere near its premarket level (3.05) and has been in a rut between 2.92 and 2.94 for most of the morning. Are the MMs sitting on C? Who knows? Tempted to sell a big chunk of shares here for a 8.5% gain (from yesterday).

Is the run done? LVS is a gamble

Up close, too close to the fire, it's always disappointing not to register profits while the market is spinning and springing up and down. But given time, there's a better perspective. I don't feel bad about holding C, STP and WFC for more than a day or week or month.

I liked Las Vegas Sands more than a year ago, almost two. I never bought any -- it was pricey with a high of 138 in November of 2007. The foray into Macao (along with competitor Wynn) was a big question mark. Today, the question is whether the run is done for LVS, which hit a low of 1.38 last month, but has since run to 4.40 after the CEO bought $7.7 million of stock. Barron's played it up yesterday, noting that the CEO bought shares at 2.95.

Now that it's up 50% since Tuesday, I can't touch this. But if the economy truly is recovering, if the recession really is over, then LVS is not a 4-dollar stock. Or is it? Even at this bottom-of-the-barrel level, LVS is trading at 29 times future earnings. Yoikes. The Co is also strapped for cash.

People like to gamble and I don't see LVS going out of business, so I'll keep close watch. This might've been more of a yes/buy below 2 or 3. Tomorrow's unemployment numbers might just knock a lot of stocks down to buyable levels again.

More bull about Macao gaming

Hard to argue against the booming world of gaming in Macao.

Goldman Sachs Bets On Wynn, MGM and Las Vegas Sands

There is also an increased likelihood that these three major players will be able to create future growth by capitalizing on new opportunities in the U.S. and abroad – in places like Japan, Taiwan and South Korea, the analyst said in a note to clients.

A rare Monday down day

So much for fears over the People's National Congress in China. While Chinese stocks held ground and some even soared to new highs — unexpectedly in the eyes of some concerned investors and traders — it was the U.S. market that folded a bit. The Dow Jones fell 108 points (0.77%), Nasdaq dropped 25 points (0.91%) and S&P 500 dipped 13 points (0.84%). The Dow fell under 14,000 to 13,984. Was it Citigroup's dismal earnings report? Possibly, but the Co had already warned about lower earnings. Was it crude oil, which finished the day above $86 a barrel? Not really. The market has gained significantly on oil's up days in the past few weeks.

Maybe it's just a little more fear and profit-taking than usual. More financials will report this week. But with Yahoo (Tuesday), eBay (Wednesday) and Google (Thursday) reporting this week, the Nasdaq will have some volatility. I'm not expecting much from the first two, though Yahoo's earnings from Asia could be significant. How soon will eBay penetrate the Chinese market? I won't be holding my breath. Google failed to meet expectations last quarter, but their game plan is sound. Spending on R&D and new hires as they expand in China is acceptable in my book. The G-phone is a bonus.

China held up, which still sounds a bit surprising. Just a little. New Oriental Education and Technology (EDU) launched to a new high after announcing earnings before the open. EDU closed on Friday above 66, opened today at 71 and closed at 75. That was a nice response to the PNC's first day. Nearly all the Chinese stocks that I watch are virtually the only greenies on my lists. CMED is at 42 (after hours). FMCN is up 1.7% to 59.15. CHL is up 1.9% to 88.80.

China and oil continue to be a glorious combination. PTR is up 9.2% to 236 and CEO is up 5.7% to 188 (after a mid-day high of 192). CEO was at 92 on subprime meltdown day (August 16). The stock was up big in premarket on less than 10,000 shares, triggered by crude oil's gain. I think.

CHL is up 1.9% to 88.80. STV was surprisingly positive, now at 50.15 (up 2.1%).

No, China wasn't perfect. BIDU dropped 2.7% to 314. SINA and YGE were down. Even Macao plays LVS and WYNN were down.

Note to self: don't fight the trends. Oil rules. China energy and pollution are going to be Quarry Logic fixtures for decades to come. The Chinese middle class will not be deprived.