Tilson: Not covering GMCR

Whitney Tilson was right about GMCR even as it ran parabolically above 100 a year ago. Today, it closed at 49, then cratered after the bell on a horrendous earnings report. GMCR reopened at 35 and continued to sink, now trading at 28.81. 

Tilson was also right about NFLX awhile ago. He shorted it and gave up while NFLX was near its peak last year, but it eventually broke down and sank big time. I don't know if he continued to add short powder to it at those nosebleed levels, but it sounds like it. 

Tilson's fundamental analysis is supreme and inspiring. It might be too late to short GMCR, but a bullshit stock is a bullshit stock. I might actually short something one day. 

Whitney Tilson as Spock

Is there really anyone on Wall Street who is as logical and stoic as Mr. Whitney Tilson. Sure, he screwed up on the Netflix trade, but he wasn't wrong. He was too early. Then there was that short position on housing before the subprime mess. He was quite right on that.

Sleep vs Trading

10:40 am (Hawaii) Was in and out of FAZ today for a very small loss. Bought FAZ at 44.70, stopped myself out at 43.96. Bought FAZ at 44.80, stopped myself out at 44.96. Bought again at 45.33, stopped myself out at 45.64. FAZ ran above 46 before the bell, then predictably sold off to mid-45. Currently 45.91 after hours.

Between the first trade and later trades, I got a few hours of sleep while the Dow sat in the -90 to -120 range. The Dow finished -207, basically giving back yesterday's gains. October has been a beastly month for bulls, so some profit-taking is normal. But what's exceptional is some of the crashes in certain stocks today.

AMZN -18.6%
FSLR -25.2%
GMCR -13.1%
NFLX -35%
WNR -9.8%
X -9.8%

Precious metals did very well today on solid volume, as Brother Turd forecasted yesterday. AGQ up 10.3% to 63.60. DGP up 5.4% to 57.31. Miners up big. EXK +6.1% to 10.43. GDX +2.4%. SLW +3.4%. XG +7.9%. I still have no interest in trading miners. Too many invisible factors, ie puppeteers.

AAPL was above 406 early, but led the way down (along with copper, NFLX, etc) and is -2.3% to 396+.

Like nothing ever changed

7:57 am (Hawaii) Just closed your eyes, breathe deeply and this could be a month ago, a season ago. LULU up 10%. GMCR up 9.4%. BIDU up 6%. NFLX, oh, Netflix, up 5.5%. AAPL up 2.5%. Just beautiful, mindless moves higher. YOKU up 5.1%. GOOG 3.5% higher. The effect of free monopoly money, printed to no end by Helicopter Ben.

Problem is, the market is up today without provocation. It was due for a bounce in the midst of this 2 or 3 week slow-motion crash. Gold is down into the 1860 area after flirting with 1915 or so overnight. Silver has backed up to 42.50 after visiting 44.00 again. All natural, as they say. I don't suspect CME mafia involvement this time. It feels like normal profit-taking. Come on. AAPL shouldn't be below 350 anyway. It's up more than $10 to 366+.

When Helicopter Ben alludes to any form of QE3 on Friday, the indices will race higher than today's gains (DJ +1.8%, Nas +2.5%, S&P +1.8%). It could be good for 1,000 points on the S&P 500 (currently 1,142). But there probably won't be another run like QE2. The general public is past the point of fantastical whims and lies. More people know the fractional reserve banking system is the real bubble. Video of riots in major cities across the globe do not lie. So I expect plenty of turbulence and roller coaster action.

I'm trying to leave my modest position in DGP alone, whether it hovers near its high (72.25) or today's low (69.15). I got up around 7 am Hawaii time, so it was much too late to ride today's momentum on the bullish route. Keeping my eyes on AAPL, FAS, DZZ, ZSL. Also QQQ, BIDU. More than likely I do nothing. With DJ up 180 points, maybe it catches fire into the close, or maybe it fizzles a little.

Update 8:08 am CNBC reporting that an earthquake hit Virginia and was felt as far as headquarters up near New York City and far west as Detroit. Market remains near its highs for today. It was a 6.0 quake.

Dual duplicity

7:08 am (Hawaii) Just got up from a good night's rest. Such a flat market. My recently-made Metals Watch List is only 15% green, lowest level ever, with only bear ETFs green with one exception: XG (Extorre Gold). XG is up 6.9%. That's it. Spot Silver is below 40 as of the past hour. Spot Gold plunged to 1509.

The chameleon traders who rode Spot Silver up and are riding it down are banking big buccos. ZSL, the double silver bear ETF, is up 11.7% today. That's on top of the 30% gain already this week. Traders are making more money more quickly on ZSL than they did on Spot Silver. There's no way I would've leaned toward a position in ZSL yesterday when it was at 17.50. But there seems to be no apparent reason for anyone to buy silver, even at this level, and the lack of buyers is killing the price.

Nimble traders riding momentum. You can understand fundamentals to the fullest, but knowing where the big money is going matters most. ZSL was at 14 on Monday. Can it climb more today and tomorrow? Certainly. But again, as selling a decliner early or not at all is sometimes best, buying a rocket launcher like ZSL early rather than at the near-term top is preferable. After gaining 40% in 3 1/2 days, this is thin ice territory.

As for Spot Silver, 37.50 looks like a reasonable support level, a 50% retrace of the recent run to 49+. Great for physical silver buyers and swing traders on the bullish side. Painful for traders on the buy-and-hold side. AGQ, the double bull silver ETF, was at 370 or 380 last week. I got out with a $4/share loss. Now it's at 235.61, close to its low of 231.10. My regular watch list is only 20% green. The only stock worse off today is OPEN, down 14.3%.

Up today: GMCR (77.20 +20.6%), VCLK (18.48 +12.3%), HAIN (35.12 (+5.5%), TVIX (25.94 +5.3%), EDZ (18.07 +4.7%), TZA (35.89 +4.3%).

Game plan remains simple: 100% cash.

Update 7:39 am (Hawaii) It's always interesting to see bloggers with strong convictions get more balanced with changing climates. SGS (SilverGoldSilver.com) is one of my favorite blogs. I disagree with some things there, but generally, I appreciate the candor and intensity of his convictions. He realized that buying puts would help protect his assets, but his critics are flaming him. I've never used puts, but I understand the practicality and profitability of protection. It's insurance in a bloody market.

It's no far-fetched guess that if all of us had known Spot Silver would crash like this, most of us would've protected our positions by getting some ZSL. I got out with SLV at 46.75 and AGQ at 369.44. That was that. But if I'd opened just a tiny position in ZSL — it was at 13 last week — it would've been a good momentum read. I'm just not that astute.

Update 7:53 am (Hawaii) The news on Extorre Gold Mines (XG) last week was about "high grade to bonanza grade gold-silver results from the first 3 of 21 diamond drill holes completed to date on a discovery named Zoe at Cerro Moro, Santa Cruz Province, Argentina." Now XG says it's up to 10 drill holes that are showing this level of gold and silver. The Zoe spot is familiar for anyone who watched the company's video recently. I like the way they market their stuff. The co-chairman seems quite transparent. But I didn't believe enough to invest even a tiny position.

ZG closed at 9.03 yesterday. Now at 9.64, off the HOD of 9.91. XG has pulled back 31% on its gain today, which is approaching a level I like. I am NOT a gold bug, never bought a miner stock before. But this video from last week is entertaining enough, especially on a rotten day for precious metals.



Update 8:14 am (Hawaii) Other gold miners with positive news today are Continental Gold (CNL) and Kirkland Lake Gold (KGI). See the story here.

Also, PAAS is one of the rare silver plays that is positive today, up 1.6% to 34.37. A report says PAAS has "provided an update on the situation in Boliva and San Vicente."

Update 8:43 am (Hawaii) Spot Silver is rebounding a bit. EXK has risen steadily and is now back above 10. PAAS continues its comeback and is at 34.50.

Some thoughts on the smaller gold and silver miners. NGD has floundered lately, but is one of the gold miners that really pops when momo is on its side. Currently down 1.8%to 10.01. No news lately.

Extorre is a spin-off from Exeter. Yale Simpson, a co-chairman at Extorre Gold Mines, is executive chairman of Exeter, which is trading just above $3/share. Exeter's focus is in Chile; Extorre is in Argentina. The company logos are virtually twins. Here's a video of Simpson talking about Exeter's projections last November.

As the host of the video (done by Even Keel Media) indicated at the end of another video, Extorre is a sponsor of the program and the program is an investor in the company. Good transparency, but I'm more impressed by their marketing/PR efforts than anything. I don't know jack about mining.

Spot Gold was below 1510, but is now at 1517. Spot Silver is off its low, now 39.75.

Update 9:25 am (Hawaii) This video is a couple of weeks old, Max Keiser with Brad Cooke, CEO of Endeavour Silver. 

Part 1

Part 2

2010 Financials

This is pretty funny.

Update 10:37 am (Hawaii) This guy figured out how to cast his own silver ingot out of scrap silver and a tiny bit of .999 silver. He created a .925 sterling silver bar. Looks like a lot of work, but he probably had fun doing it. If the world ever goes to shit, this guy's skills will be invaluable. 

Bumpy hump day

Somehow, we'll survive

9:11 am (Hawaii). One of these days, my sleep cycle will adjust and I'll sleep from 9 pm to 4 am, getting a reasonable amount of sleep before the opening bell. Until then, I'm not awake until midway through the session. Not that I'm missing a lot.

Less than two hours until the closing bell and stocks are a mixed bag. Oil and silver have cooled off significantly this week. Oil futures keep getting shot down below 105 despite violence and turmoil in Libya and neighboring states. The stabilization, however precarious, of crude oil prices has allowed some equities to move forward.

GMCR 43.84 (+7.2%), CSTR 43.27 (+2.6%), NGD 10.59 (+2.4%), LULU 76.45 (+1.6%), AMZN 169.47 (+1.6%)

Smells like retailers are getting some bang for their springtime buck, but they're at the mercy of Middle East madness.

TVIX is also up there, to no surprise, with a 3% gain to 44.72. NGD is up 2.2% (10.57) even though gold is basically flat as a whole.

42% of my watch list is in the green; 56% red.

SLV is up fractionally, but SLW is down again, losing 1.4% so far (44.04). Silver futures have bobbed and weaved at the 36 level today. The mad rush to get in has reversed this week. Was it just a mania? Or is this a short pause on the way to 50? I'm not risking my hard-earned, inflation-ridden dollars to find out.

IPI (-3.7%), EXK (-3.2%), PAAS (-2.9%), X (-2.7%) and FCX (-2.4%) are the big losers on my watch list so far. That's an ag, two silver plays, a steel and a copper. Whether we believe the top is in or not for silver is irrelevant. It's getting sandbagged on every thrust toward a new high and the puppetmasters keep tying new knots on those thinning strings.

AAPL is hanging on at 352.42, off its LOD (350.60). Can a lousy market knock AAPL off its feet as the iPad 2 hits stores Friday afternoon?

Still 100% cash and watching with trusty binoculars from the rafters.

Hump day reading
Cafe Americain: Harvey Organ: targets $2,000 gold and $125 silver (Mar 9 2011)

Friday forkway

3:15 am (Hawaii). Up. Down. Left. Right. Spend. Hoard.

America is at an economic crossroads today. Depending on who you believe, we are on the brink of prosperity (again). So says Alan Greenspan, per CNBC this morning. "Momentum" is with the improving U.S. economy, he says. Then you have precious metal bugs, some who are heavily invested in gold, silver, ammunition and years worth of canned food, who believe the U.S. dollar is doomed.

All I care about is making a smart trade. One at a time. I've missed the ride up with AAPL despite my bullishness about the stock and company. With 20 minutes until the non-farm payrolls report, AAPL is trading a buck higher in premarket at 360+. It was a couple of weeks ago, when Steve Jobs was spotted at the doctor's office, when I got out at this price. I knew the public would overreact. "He's at the doctor? OMG!" Well, shares dipped much lower from there as hedge funds took profits. Now things are so much better, a catalyst is in play and a new trading range is being formed.

Premarket, 60% of my watch list is green, 22% red, 18% flat.

NGD +6.4%, UCO +2%, EXK +1.7%, PAAS 1.4%, USO +1.1%, FCX +1%, SLW +0.9%, SLV +0.8%

TVIX -7.5%, CLNE -1%, GMCR -0.9%, CSTR -0.8%, OPEN -0.7%, LVS -0.6%, VZ -0.4%, QID -0.3%

Update, 3:41 am (Hawaii). Non-farms payroll report was ho-hum. In line, according to CNBC.

AAPL has retraced more than half of its premarket gain, now 360.33. I don't feel confident about entering here, however. Wait-and-see mode.

Update, 3:50 am (Hawaii). Watch list still mostly green: 51% positive, 33% neg, 16% neutral. Crude oil futures are above 103. Is there a surer bet out there? Maybe AAPL. The assurance from Libya's rebel leader that they will fight to the death probably put the spike in today's price.

NGD +2.4%, UCO +2.3%, USO +1.5%, PAAS +1.4%, EXK +1.2%, SLW +0.9%, SLV +0.8%, LULU +0.7%, FCX +0.6%, APC +0.5%

GS -1.3%, C -1.1%, GMCR -0.9%, CSTR -0.8%, OPEN -0.7%, TVIX -0.6%

Update, 3:59 am (Hawaii). Divergence in gold and silver. While gold, Dow Jones, S&P and Nasdaq futures have eroded in the past hour, silver headed higher. Weirdness.

Update, 4:02 am (Hawaii). Watch list bullishness declining still. 47% green, 35% red, 18% flat. 

Update, 4:22 am (Hawaii). Crude oil is a tempting play (again), but it's important to remember that many of the oil crises of years past were stopped in their tracks by the presence of the US armed forces. Total Investor noted this yesterday in a thorough examination of crude prices before and after American intervention. UCO dipped to about 54.50, close to the 50% retracement of today's premarket gain, but has bounced and is now back up to 54.80. Considerable as a daytrade. but probably too late now.


Update, 5:16 am (Hawaii). Not sure who the gold analyst/bull was, but he showed up on CNBC 30 or 45 minutes ago and noted that Mark Haynes had been negative on gold when he was on the show several months ago. Haynes was pissed, but his body language said it all: it was the truth.

Silver futures chart online is behind most other charts by 15 minutes. This divergence began as silver hit $35. Not sure why, but anything is possible. Gold was fresh and live, but not silver. SLW cracked 45 for the first time, making me regret selling at 43.10 on Wednesday. EXK, PAAS, SLV also doing extremely well.

NGD, UCO, and now TVIX atop my list. So is NFLX, which had been beaten down recently. Not touching that, but the metal plays and UCO continue to appeal to me.

50% retracement levels (on today's gains): SLW 44.37, UCO 54.44. SLW actually dipped to retrace level at 44.36, but I froze up. On cue, SLW ran up immediately back toward 45. My loss.

Hi Ho Silver!

Update, 6:02 am (Hawaii). Most mornings, I'd be in bed by now, peacefully asleep. This time, even without Red Bull, I'm wide awake. The precious metals, silver in particular, are screaming out loud. It's an ecstatic sound. I'm not in, no skin in, all cash. But it's an amazing move up for silver. It makes me remember that though the masses (like me) are interested now, the huge move in the past year probably means silver is nearing a top at some point. Could be next week. Maybe next month or next year. But irrational exuberance is nearing.

EXK exploded above 9 to an HOD of 9.22, now at 9.10. PAAS +3.1%. SLV +2.8%. SLW +2.2%, well off its HOD of 45.13, now 44.68. I want a position at 44.37 (50% retracement of today's gain).

In all, my watch list is 56% green, 41% red. Markets are generally slightly red. AAPL is back in the green, just barely, at 359.59. Needed a breather after that nice move the past couple of days.

UCO still appealing, though I wouldn't want to hold over the weekend if naval ships from around the world converge on Libya. But who knows? Maybe Quadaffi blows up every oil field out of spite.

Update 3:35 pm (Hawaii). Selloff. Upside for precious metals, crude oil. And it would've been more extreme if not for the strange moves. Artificial intelligence, indeed.

Saved by the bell?

Does it matter?

AAPL may never see 350 again

Movin' on up no matter the manipulation stateside

Up up up

Absolutely untainted by equity manipulation

Pump on Fast Money didn't hurt either

All indications point toward continued stampede-like behavior in crude and PMs. How did JP Morgan not pull the rug out on PMs by yesterday or today? Are they shackled now? Is silver going to hit $40 next week? 

I have a very hard time believing that the dollar will implode, that the puppet masters won't pull the rug out from the masses (moving into PMs) soon. Real soon. I hope it doesn't happen that way. Where else is the small-fry citizen to trade or invest when all else is failing? Shorting equities is dangerous with QE2 at full bore. Metals make sense, but strange things happen overnight, or over a weekend. 

In other words, I trust no one. To those of have the gumption to go long silver (rather than sell early as I did), a toast to you. And a merry weekend, also. I caught a bit of a ride on SLV last week, but missed the ride to 34.87 (after hours today). UCO was appealing, but I stayed out and it closed AH at 56.50 today (5.3%). Big cajones means you were still long EXK (+12.2%), which closed AH at 9.36 today. 

EXK 9.36 (+12.2%), UCO 56.50 (+5.3%), NGD 10.79 (+5.2%), SLV 34.93 (+4.5%), NFLX 211.80 (+4.1%), TVIX 42.74 (+4.1%), SLW 45.15 (+3.3%), PAAS 39.70 (+3.2%), CRR 122.90 (+3.2%)

FAS 30.69 (-3.7%), CLNE 13.51 (-2.9%), C 4.55 (-2.8%), VCLK 14.80 (-2.4%), GS 160.80 (-2.2%), EGPT 17.57 (-2.1%), F 14.45 (-2.1%), X 55.70 (-1.9%), GOOG 600.24 (-1.5%), FCX 51.69 (-1.4%), TBT 38.78 (-1.3%)

All (mainly) because of Libya and the contagion of protest across the Middle East. The violence. Quaddafi. But intervention is imminent. Them big ships loaded to the gills with peacemaking weaponry are closing in on Libya sooner or later. Crude will return to 'normalcy.' 

Didn't trade today. I'm starting to realize that even when the direction of the market is fairly clear, the artificial vapors are affecting my judgment. Otherwise I would've jumped in when SLW pulled back roughly 50% on today's gain. I would've trusted what I've seen and bought UCO. I definitely would've opened a UCO position as a hedge if I were long AAPL. Instead, I stayed all cash, as I have since early in the week. 

A coward, yes, but a coward who can relax this weekend and return Monday morning fully locked and loaded. Takes a bit of a twisted mind to attack this particular market. Will work on that this weekend. 

Friday reading
AP: Oil settles at highest level since Sept. 2008 (Mar 4 2011) "Oil prices rose past $104 a barrel to end the week at a 29-month high..."

AP: Burst of hiring could mark turning point for jobs (Mar 4 2011)

The Telegrah: Libyan rebels vow 'victory or death' (Mar 4 2011)

King World News: John Hathaway: $50 to $60 silver, US dollar in danger (Mar 3 2011) "If we have a continuation of QE2 past June 30th, I wouldn't be surprised to see silver in the $50, $60 an ounce territory. PMs and oil top the list in what is becoming, apparently, an every-other-day switcheroo between equities and metals/oils.

The Fly: Yelp is a partner of Open Table, i.e. Asshat of the Week Award to Herb Greenberg/Brad Safalow (Mar 3 2011) "You f**king imbecile, Yelp is a partner of OPEN's. And, to top it off, the only relevent website that could ever threaten OPEN's dominance, Tripadvisor.com, have a partnership as well."

Zero Hedge: Utah pushes to accept gold, silver as alternative currency (Mar 3 2011)

Turd Ferguson: Silver consolidating above 34 (Mar 3 2011)

Turnaround Thursday

10:03 am (Hawaii). Got up an hour ago and the market has bounced back moderately. Manufacturing numbers out of Philadelphia, CNBC says, were the catalyst.

AAPL still hovering at 358, but metals continue to rock. SLV (+3.5%) and EXK (2.3%) are up big thanks to chaos in the Middle East (Day of Rage). SLV up almost in a straight line since January 26.

VXX (+1.4%) still up. Won't be touching that due to overnight contango effect.

LVS is up again (1.2%), now 48.82. I remember it trading to the low 46s after its earnings report two weeks ago. AMZN, VZ, CMG all up.

AAPL was actually at the bottom red end of my watch list early in the session, but has been replaced by RLOC and GMCR (-4.5%).

I've come to accept that the protests and rioting of the Middle East have become a combined catalyst that will not cease for weeks, if not months. That makes oil, gold and silver prominent, almost on par with a former "safe haven" like AAPL. Not interested in chasing SLV here, but I'll stay tuned for the next news event. Will there be another Day of Rage? Of course. People there are pissed.

EXK has traded in a range of roughly 5.50 to 7.50 for since November. At 7.20, it may be ready to break out. I wrote last year that speculators and traders had pointed out silver as an unappreciated vehicle, that there was massive hoarding going on. Whether that's true or ever was, the extremes of the past few months in the price are a great opportunity. EXK has a  float of 68.6 million shares and miniscule debt ($337K). The numbers are positive up and down, but this is a tiny company ($82.3 million revenue). At 5.50, a great buy in this environment. At 7 plus, watch out. Is it worth the risk? Will the rubber band yank it back when it touches 7.50?

SLV is also almost too hot to touch by most indicators. Traded between 26 and 30.50 since November and today is at a threshold (31) on increased volume. Tempting. I've always liked physical silver — looking at it more than owning it — so the appreciation of the metal is something to handle. As a piece of paper, it will always be a risk. Any government can seize paper assets of metals. It's happened before (long ago). But right now, SLV and EXK are alluring.

AAPL might be a great buy here at 357, but even without any Steve Jobs health issue, it always has pullbacks after earnings. I'm not willing to park into a position and wait for a catalyst. I'm willing to wait for a great price. But clearly, this is not just about Steve Jobs or app subscriptions. It's also about our personal issues with diseases like cancer. If we're comfortable enough with how the disease is treated, how it has affected our families and how we've dealt with it, the media circus around Mr. Jobs matters less. But there are still many traders and investors with panic buttons when it comes to anything negative or perceived as negative about the CEO. 

One nice healthy photo of Mr. Jobs and Mr. Obama tonight could set shares on fire again. 

NFLX, LULU and other momo movers are fun if you can take the heat. I prefer something cooler with a P/E I can trust. Doesn't mean I won't touch momos. But I know my preference and I'll work with it.