Say it ain't so

Bianca Beauchamp

4:22 am (Hawaii) This can't be true. The Fly, Le Fly, retiring from the market? He may be convinced, but I say no. Why? He's had an emotionally draining few days recently. If he were to "retire" after a few boring days, successful or not, that would be a sticker. Not this. Not when he's exhausted, busy and tagged with the daily grind of being a parent/megamillionaire trader/interweb boss.

Other than that, the Dow is +255, Nas +41, S&P +23, all up 1.6 to 2.0%

I haven't tried anything since selling DGP in premarket. Things are positive for bulls, but the stuff I like are waffley. Indecisive. Lack of conviction from the buy side. I'll stay on the sideline in that case. I wanted to re-enter DGP, maybe even enter AGQ. But the run may be done for the morning, maybe the day. DGP sits above 55, which refuses to break. AGQ is sitting in the 126-127 area.

FAZ stays above 56. I'm looking for 50, greedy pig that I am.

My Regular watch list is 86% green, 14% red. Hasn't been that bullish since ... ever. AGQ, MCP, FAS, CHGS, GNK, YOKU, PSLV, MWW, SLV, DGP, YZC, SINA, UCO up 5.5% or more. Volume? Not a factor yet, but these steep gains have me thinking that we may be at a pivot point today, or we had one yesterday or Friday.


Bianca Beauchamp Black Transformation from Martin Perreault on Vimeo.

So ... now what?

11:47 am (Hawaii) Just a look at some ideas, possibilities for tomorrow and the rest of the week.

• A lot of big, fat companies are sitting on big, fat cash. Is this when they start to buy back stock en masse? Or are they anticipating a market meltdown through the end of the year? Would you buy these stocks at these levels?

AAPL 389
AMZN 211
BIDU 153
GOOG 593
LULU 59.10
NFLX 256

I can't imagine touching any of these here, even after the post-earnings pullbacks. I still love AAPL, but you know 50-dollar swings are the norm between catalysts. AAPL could return and retest 376 (pre-earnings price). BIDU would also be interesting at a cheaper price. Not touching NFLX or LULU. No way.

Playing the downside:

FAZ 53.22
QID 51.45
TZA 42.23
TVIX 22.70
VXX 24.37
ZSL 12.91

I liked FAZ in the 40s but didn't have the nuggets to step in last week. If it pulls back below 50, I'm looking. ZSL I threw in here only because spot silver is always subject to puppeteering by the CME mafia. But now's not the time, not with the possibility of elephants stepping in for the parade higher.

TZA, TVIX and VXX are off my menu. TVIX (+17%) and TZA (+10%) were up huge today. Too hot and due for a drop. QID is interesting now that the techs are almost done with earnings reports.

What's going to stay hot in a cold market? These were hot today in metals.

AGQ 222
DGP 56.60
EXK 10.22
GPL 3.67
GSS 2.70
GORO 26.49

I don't plan to add more mining shares, period. I'd rather play the ultra bull metal ETFs like DGP and AGQ when the timing is right. I'm prepared to acknowledge that it may be too late to pile back on the gold and silver express trains. I might have to be content with small positions in DGP and XG.

Note: Brian Kelly's "first trade" tomorrow is SLV, he says. There are nearly 20 silver plays that were up at least 3% on my Metals list today. That's unprecedented. In all, almost all of the 30 that were up at least 1.5% were silver plays. The Metals list was only 56% green; MCP, REE and AVL were among the bottom dwellers. Silver and gold left the other commodities far behind.

Note #2: Take a look at AGQ at the end of March. Traded from 225.95 (opening price, Mar 24) down to 217.75 (close, Mar 29). AGQ was down three times in a span of four sessions. From there, volume was up on that fifth session, starting a steady ascent to 382 by Apr 28. Then the astounding fall caused by the CME mafia's five margin requirement hikes in nine days.

In the four sessions prior to today, AGQ was down three times, dropping from 229.22 to 206.30. Today, volume was up. It's just something to note, and with a different tone and footing to the silver market, I hardly expect a one-month run to 382. But also note that the RSI crossed over with the slow stochastic during this period, just as it did in late March. Both scenarios followed months-long spans of consolidation. Unlike the springtime run, the market is teetering and on the verge of collapse this time. Does that create a more bullish environment for gold and silver?

Coffee, cream and METAL MANIA! (updated)

8:24 am (Hawaii) It rained overnight in Honolulu. Weather was cool for a July night. Perfect sleeping weather. I just got up after a productive workout last night, and it's almost the end of the session. Did I miss anything?

Hell yes. I remember Turd Ferguson noting yesterday that, technically, he expects gold to break out to a new high, and if that happened ... fully bullish. Turn on the TV. Turn on the computer. I sorta dread this. If gold breaks out, good. My XG and DGP will do nicely, even at small quantities. But I sold out of AGQ two days ago at a loss of $12/share. Small, small position, but still.

The Metals list I keep is almost all green (79%). It's a wipeout day for Metals bears. Only the bearish ETFs and ETNs are red. The indices are all up. XG is up 5%, DGP up 1.3%. AGQ is up 10% to 195. I sold at 172. Again, my timing ... not so good. I'm glad I held some gold stocks. It's like selling FAZ last Friday instead of holding until Monday. That cost me some. But the AGQ sell just cost me roughly $600. That's on a small position, really small. And if silver continues to rise, AGQ keeps going up at double warp speed, who knows, maybe to its all-time high at 382 (April 28).

I can imagine it's been a wonderful day so far for metal bugs. But Turd's site is down. Has it been overwhelmed by all the excitement? I need my Turd & Turdites fix.

James Turk, in his consistent, almost monotone voice, has been pounding the table for gold for a few months. He keeps repeating that this will be (not could be) a breakout summer for gold. Yesterday, he said it would be like the summer of 1982, when Mexico's default led to a golden rocketship. Holy cow, Mr. Turk is probably correct.

Everything at the top of my Metals list gapped up and is already enjoying bigger volume than yesterday: AGQ, AG, NUGT, EGO, SVM, SIL, DBS, XG, SLV, PSLV, GOLD, GDXJ, SLW, PLTM, EXK, REE, GDX, COPX ... wait, I take that back. PLTM hasn't matched yesterday's volume yet. It's all almost too good to be true. Like a setup. But on this kind of volume? I doubt it. It's usually a thin market that gets toyed with and peon traders like me get puppeteered.

Is it this simple? Obama threatens to yank Social Security, and the market reads it as a desperate threat and confirmation that QE3 is on? Or what's-his-face on Capitol Hill, the Republican who caved in and compromised on the Democrats' offer yesterday ... that's what's driving this? I haven't had time to check yet. Maybe after a bowl of cereal.

Update 8:51 am (Hawaii) On the 15-minute chart, AGQ has never exploded like it did this morning at the open. There was major volume two days ago, when shares sold off. But this morning was to the upside in a gap up. Trying find an entry point is difficult here. After closing yesterday at 177.68, there's a lot of room to pull back.

Has the CME mafia and the govt lost control of the price? Is the manipulation over? Probably not on both counts. But yesterday and today show that even in the middle of what's supposed to be the summer doldrums, the market may be too powerful to shackle 100% of the time — especially when it comes to gold. That is where old money resides. Old BIG money.

Update 9:07 am (Hawaii) Excellent post at SilverGoldSilver.com by guest writer SRSrocco about commercial shorts losing grip on silver. I'll add it to the library reading list later today. I got to eat some cereal. Kept watching AGQ but couldn't find a suitable point of entry. Now it's pulling back below 196, it looks like ... feeling desperate to get in near the highs is never a good feeling, and rarely leads to good results. I like the feeling of buying cheap, it's just that I really don't expect AGQ to go back near 177 any time soon.

Only a rocket ship loaded with 10 trillion ounces of gold and silver from another galaxy could save the US economy here. And that would be bullish for PMs. Production/GDP/jobs aren't about to spike high in the next several months. Not even space aliens can repair that.

Greecian formula?

10:17 am (Hawaii) Major momentum swings today. Jobs report bad. Greece austerity good. Looking over several charts from AAPL to NBG to AG, could it be remotely possible that this bullish vibe — increased volume, heavy momentum from lows to highs by the close — is the real deal? I would find that preposterous to conceive. This is late June, QE2 is almost done and the Fed is in no rush to usher in QE3. In fact, the Fed seems content to see the market tank, even crash, to justify any further fiat currency destruction, i.e. printing trillions more US Dollars.

Yet there are massive numbers in some of these equities/etfs. Are they spurred by high-frequency trading? Probably, but some of those are direct from the hedge funds, and moves on big volume don't lie in the near term. Usually.

I got out of FAZ despite my long-term pessimism about the debt crisis. I am not going to wait around and get cut to pieces by market momentum to the downside. But I am willing to re-enter FAZ once the financials' true colors show up vivid and bright again. Like maybe tomorrow morning. If Spain and Portugal opt for more austere routes, like Greece, that does NOT help US banksters one bit. So it can be possible for NBG to rocket higher on austerity measures while financials stateside swallow another plate of poison.

I looked hard at NBG before the close and had an order at 1.41, but never got it filled. Bad timing. Or good, depending on how the market follows through tomorrow. It could easily pull back into the 1.30s after today's robust gain. A tiny position would be interesting, but a fast move up isn't in the cards. I can see NBG at 2.00 in a few months, but the constant downturns of other banks will keep it leashed. A move to 2.50 or higher could happen within a year. A double is never a bad thing.





Apple held high ground even when the market was still down big. AAPL closed is at 330.20 after hours (+2.3%). Today's candlestick is not exactly bullish, but it is not bearish either.

Baidu has been bullish, as well, with good news earlier in the week. It wasn't long ago that BIDU split 3-for-1 and was sitting at 70. If there's a "safe" play in China, this would be one. Big Brother protects its little brothers.

LULU and other stocks look bullish, but in this bizarro market, LULU could easily lose its recent gains. That small float cuts both ways.

Silver was a roller coaster ride today. Silver Wheaton, like AAPL, showed strength when it was a sea of red. Net-net, SLW had slightly more volume and is up 1% to 33.13 after hours.

First Majestic (AG) also had a positive day (+0.8%) despite the pummeling on silver. Like Silver Wheaton, First Majestic's fundamental numbers are impressive, particularly in profit margin. I think that gets tampered with as energy prices fluctuate, but AG is still a solid miner.

I still like EXK (8.49 after hours), which was down nearly 1% but is still among the stronger plays this week among silver miners. 7.50 is support, and some shrewd traders got in at about 7.60 recently for this elevator ride.










AGQ, GPL, PAAS, SLV for your viewing.

 

 

ZSL was a solid play on the short side, but was well off its intraday high (19.11). ZSL is at 18.49 (+6.4%) after hours.

If the CME mafia continue to pull strings on silver, a little ZSL would make good protection.

DGP (double gold bull) looked horrible on the chart, big gap down on increased volume. If the puppet masters knock gold down, as I expect, to further their argument in favor of QE3, so be it. They will not and cannot hold gold down for long, though. Eventually, the debt crisis will overwhelm all factors, and the US will have to take severe action one way or another. Every way benefits real money: gold and silver. So I will hold my little position in DGP and continue to accumulate hard assets.

Rangold (GOLD) was a rarity today, a gold play that finished green (80.03, +0.5% after hours). I don't trade it, know little about it.

There were a few gold plays that showed some strength, like NGD.

GLD was GLD.

I still like Extorre Gold Mines (XG), even with its huge run in the past several months. They are great marketers and have been successful as of late with their finds in Argentina.










DZZ is one way to play a downturn in gold. GLL is another way (+3.7% today). On the whole, however, I don't plan to short gold. If I bet against anything, it would be the financials or silver, maybe the Nas (QID). I've never played QID, and unless there's a complete breakdown, I won't touch it. But the Nas does fall apart in a big way from time to time, so QID is worth keeping an eye on.

 

I'm mostly cash, same as the last several months. Small, but growing pile of physical metals.

Monday Afternoon Theater

The Byrd Theater

Richmond, Virginia

(video) SilverGoldSilver: SLV trading like a POS (June 20 2011)
• I like how he's about to wrap up halfway through (around 4:50), then goes on with some blunt observations about the price action in SLV. You can disagree with him about the coming end of SLV or not, but it's GREAT to hear his commentary via video/audio. Rated R (language).

(video) GoldMoneyNews: James Turk and Steffen Krug (June 20 2011)
• Krug is founder of the Institute for Austrian Asset Management, based in Germany.

(video) GoldMoneyNews: James Turk and Lawrence Parks (June 18 2011)
• Parks is executive director of FAME, an educational group with a strategy based on sound money.

(video) Silver-Investor.com: Fast effects of massive hyperinflation (June 18 2011)
• A look at the insane dollar bills of Zimbabwe's fiat currency.

Library time
Turd Ferguson: Monday charts (June 20 2011)
• Turd the Great notes that Gold needs to consolidate at 1540 before making a move above 1550 (resistance). Also, that Silver needs to stay above 36.25 to make a run at the key 38 level. He says much, much more, of course.

Dean Henderson: The Federal Reserve Cartel: The Eight Families (June 1 2011)
• Part 1 of a 4-part series

Andrew Gavin Marshall: Bilderberg 2011: The Rockefeller World Order and 'High Priests of Globalization' (June 16 2011)

Michel Chossudovsky: The Destabilization of Syria and the Broader Middle East War (June 17 2011)

This brawl ain't over

12:00 pm (Hawaii) Yesterday's moves were almost entirely on sharply lower volume. Today?

AGQ: Tue 1.7 million shares, Wed 1.6 mil

DGP: Tue 688k, Wed 997k

EDZ: Tue 2.3 mil, Wed 2.3 mil

FAZ: Tue 13.0 mil, Wed 13.3 mil

GLD: Tue 10.9 mil, Wed 13.3 mil

GPL: Tue 2.1 mil, Wed 3.3 mil

SCO: Tue 1.4 mil, Wed 2.3 mil

SLV: Tue 30 mil, Wed 40 mil

And so on. I'm not a fan of SLV or GPL (due for a pullback after a massive run). But AGQ doesn't lie. It was up on almost even volume. Gold plays, even GLD, up on significant increased volume.

FAZ is perplexing at times, but it's neither bearish or bullish after today's 6% gain. I'm tempted to open a small position but I'm leaning toward waiting overnight. Same with SCO, though for different reasons. SCO and UCO are just wickedly flip-floppy. Obama wanted lower gas prices and he's getting it. But crude oil could bounce back on any craziness in the ME. Depends on how you feel about the presence of US Navy in the region; does it quell resistance and lead to US takeover of Iraqi/etc oil fields? Or does it lead to conflict?

Here are the biggest losers off my Metals/etc list:

UCO 43.25, -7.4%, Tue 2.5 mil, Wed 3.9 mil

FAS 22.54, -6.6%, Tue 23.9 mil, Wed 27.5 mil

CU 38.58, -4.9%, Tue 75k, Wed 4.9 mil

COPX 17.48, -3.8%, Tue 46k, Wed 236k

AG 16.88, -2.6%, Tue 1.1 mil, Wed 1.1 mil

Miners make up a big chunk of today's losers. But note how copper got destroyed (CU, COPX). Is this a blow-off top? Or is all this exiting volume an indication that the market will be dead money for some time. I think it's the latter. Plenty of people went on vacation, and a lot of the leftover traders got out today. AAPL at 325-326 ... that's dead money for awhile. 

This is looking like a knock-down, drag-out alley fight that could go on for days or weeks. Months maybe. But the scent of positive economic numbers will give us a quick dead-cat bounce opportunity here and there.

Content to sit in mostly cash and let it all shake out. Acquire more physical metal bit by bit.

One small morsel at a time

4:35 am (Hawaii) The sky is black and hungry baby birds are starting to sing. The air is cool and the early morning has brought no rain, no humidity ... just a pleasant and cool, and quiet, time of day. Maybe the best time of day, all things considered, in this pit of traffic and overcrowding. Yes, Honolulu is still picturesque. It just ain't what it used to be. Sometimes, you just can't go back.

I have yet to turn on the TV, being satisfied with my place in bed and the aforementioned solitude. But the indices are down due to abysmal manufacturing numbers. Senor Turd notes that this shouldn't be any kind of surprise to the market, but one result is that gold shot up 10 bucks.

That's good for my small portion of DGP (+1.1%), bad for most of my Metals list. At one point after the opening bell, 78% were in the red. Now it's only 71%. ZSL and FAZ have taken turns leading the way. FAZ was at 44.14, dropped to 43.85 and I thought maybe a rally was underway. But really, there is no rally coming this morning because there just isn't any good news for now. So FAZ is now up to 44.32.

Gold is hanging in there. NGD is up a half percent, GLD is fractionally higher, and even PALL is still green. But DUST, the gold miner 2x bear, is still up 0.8%. It's tough sledding for gold plays today. It's much rougher on silver plays. ZSL is up 2.6% while AGQ struggles to stay above 200. AG, EXK, SLV are all down. So much for slightly bullish hammers on yesterday's charts. Just goes to show, technicals mean nothing in the face of economic thresholds.

Rare metals (MCP, AVL) are being hammered, as is LNKD, which is now below 79 (-3.5%).

The one, buoyant leader is AAPL, which is up 2.3% to 350. It was at 337 yesterday early, then sat at 343 for hours after the news about next week's presentation featuring Steve Jobs. AAPL closed above 347, then traded today above 352. Major show of strength. Question is whether it can sustain this move while the rest of the market is in the red. Though my metals list is bleeding, my regular watch list (non-metals) is 76% red.

Update 4:53 am (Hawaii) FAZ now 44.55. It appears not everyone in Greece is geeked up about austerity measures. Still. Once again, Euro possessors seek refuge in gold.

AP: Greek banker dismisses euro exit as review looms (June 1 2011)

Reuters: Stocks fall as manufacturing slows (June 1 2011)

Turd: ADP vs. BLS (June 1 2011)

Update 5:16 am (Hawaii) This would be known as a Viagra.

This, even more so.

Update 5:33 am (Hawaii) Metals list is now 56% green. That was quick. Most silver plays went straight up, lower left to the upper right of their charts, in the past 30 minutes or so. Many of them are green now, or close to it. This is a daytrader's joy ride.

Bad credit, bad hair and Europe?

10:17 am (Hawaii) So what does this half-assed solution to the Greek debt crisis mean? How did it spur the indices higher through the closing bell? Was it all just AAPL?

How much of it was end-of-month window dressing? How many of those same fund bosses sell their AAPL and other assorted non-essentials tomorrow before the peon premarket?

A meltdown in Greece, then Portugal, then Spain, France, UK ... wouldn't all of this have left gold and silver alone to run higher and higher? Are we really that much closer to the stack-your-cans-of-sardines-and-Spam days?

One thing is clear. The daily charts show many, many silver plays with fairly bullish candlestick charts. I don't think it's an all-clear that silver shoots up vertically from here, but it's something to watch.

Big Apple

A major gap open and strong finish on increased volume. Under normal conditions, what's not to like, right? But even AAPL can't withstand the unnatural currents of the global market.

Crude activity

What's good for crude oil is good for the market? Not necessarily, but Sensei Turd Ferguson has been forecasting a crude move to the upside.

Silver hammers

AGQ, AG, EXK, SLV all have hammer candles that are somewhat bullish. It's not enough for me to jump in head first, so I'm still 90% cash. But it's getting attractive.

In an afternoon update, Turd pointed to 37.50 as an area of "stout support", with a re-test of 39.50 soon. I suppose I'm selfish wanting prices below 35 to buy physical.

Gold isn't looking as interesting, which is expected after last week's move (and the sputter action of silver). I don't know what to make of XG's candle today except that it finished with some momentum. An oddity.

The gold junior miners ETF looks nice, but GLD looks tired. It might be time for some consolidation. I'm still positive on gold in general, still holding a small piece of DGP, which also looks tired here.

Rare earths are foreign to me, but MCP looks full of vigor here.

If you look hard enough, the palladium ETF chart looks a little bit like XG. Bullish, but something's not quite right.

Copper ETF looks positive, but is all the news out of China already baked in? Copper was a good play a week ago when China's growth turned up strong, but this is a tightrope here. Long term, I wouldn't fear this trade, but I can't hold anything that long in this market.

I'm sticking to my gut for now and staying mostly out. AAPL will be interesting if it holds its ground, but much of that depends on the chaos in the Euro zone and, well, just about everywhere else.

SGS is skeptical about PMs and noted earlier that if gold can't keep up, silver will be ravaged by the puppet masters.

A pullback in PMs would be par for the course. Gold, in particular, tends to pull back on any gains during the summer. It has the last two summers. I'd look to add more physical on discount prices as volume wanes and the lulls take over.

Hustle and wait

7:23 am (Hawaii) An old ex-military friend once told me, "The military is all about hurry up, get there quick and wait. Wait and wait. All the time." He has a point there. What's the point of efficiency unless you're so good at it, you end up waiting a majority of the time. But to be there, armed and prepared, conditioned for any circumstance, that's the essence of success. The trophies and glory are byproducts.

I've been up since 4:20 am or so, which would be 10:20 am Eastern. I shined up an old coin I found among my pile of dirty pennies, nickels, dimes and quarters. I took in the morning light, which was obscured by light gray clouds over our green mountain. It's good here.

The market? It's stuttering. It's meandering. It has no real direction, just a head fake here and a head fake there. AGQ looks good for a few minutes, then ZSL takes the ball and runs, but before it can turn the corner, it tanks.

I'm still all cash here. Greece and other Euro zone spots are getting media excited. But all in all, things are somewhat calm with crude oil at 98 or so. Spot Gold sank from 1515 overnight to 1492 this morning as the Dollar gained. Spot Silver is at 34.73 after dipping to 32.20 early yesterday. It went to 36+ overnight. We're just five days away from the debut of Hang Seng's Hong Kong's gold futures, an 18-hour/day market that may challenge Comex.

Yesterday, in a post that was stolen and sent into the Blogger.com Bermuda Triangle, I noted that AGQ and ZSL were both in the red at the same time for a long stretch. Made no sense until I revisited that this morning. The reason both ultra ETNs were down big? Outflow. Traders were taking their money out of the market. They were frustrated and decided to get the eff out, as I have done for months. That explains today's lethargic activity. That explains a lot. Liquidity is drastically different. It's not bone dry, but traders are mentally worn out and fatigued. They cashed out. Can't blame them.

Today, AGQ is up 3.9% to 172.10 even though 64% of my metals list is red. Silver in general is red: AG, EXK, PAAS. But some are positive: SLW, PSLV, SLV. ZSL is off by 8.1%.

I still want much more physical silver, but the thesis here is to make as much fiat as possible (without major risk), then collect physical when spot prices decline. Maybe that's later this month, or maybe in early June if the Fed doesn't indicate a bias toward or against QE3. But it's coming, and if the Fed is successful in driving down commodities (especially crude oil), the equation to justify more easing becomes acceptable (?) to the general public and its shills in D.C. They're going to do all they can to stave off the austerity movement.

So what does that have to do with physical? A lot, no doubt about it. So I'll play it as we see it, and if they drive down the price of Spot, I'll come along for the ride. But that means resisting any tempting price today. Example: Scottsdale 10-oz stacker got down to $385 last night. I almost pulled the trigger. It went back to $395 later. But this morning, it's back down to to $385. If Spot gets back to 33, then 30, I'm probably shopping. Shiny metal. So pretty.