Showing posts with label QE2. Show all posts
Showing posts with label QE2. Show all posts

Friday, July 15, 2011

Weekend cinema & library - updated Sun pm

Vista Theater, Hollywood

Note: Watching Peter Schiff talk on CNBC, pointing out the same as always: PIIGS are in no position to avoid default, which helps the Euro long term, while the US prints its way into inflation. Funny how he shows up on Money in Motion Currency instead of Fast Money.

Video
(new) John Birch Society: Overview of America (part 1) (part 2) (July 17)
TheStreet: Cramer: Two sectors to sell (July 15)
The Weekly Telegram: Jim Sinclair and gold mining stocks (July 15)
> Note: Interesting that the host asks if he will sell the physical, and he says GLD. Does he ever talk about physical gold?
HBO: Too Big to Fail (20-min trailer) (June 9)
(new) Journeyman Pictures: Ghost Cities - China (Apr 18 2011)
• Mike Maloney called this a few years back, a real estate bubble burst in China

Vlogs
(new) SilverGoldSilver: Here we go ... silver, gold on the move (July 17)
(new) wafdawg: Debt debate outcome so predictable (July 17)
(new) Turd Ferguson: Blythe and Ruprecht Return (updated) (July 17)
(new) SilverMapleLeafs: Sell your house and buy silver? (July 17)
(new) george4title: Why America needs to collapse (July 17)
(new) H1INC: Debt limit go ya bummed? (July 17)
(new) george4title: Transition into healthy eating and living (July 17)
(new) Alexiscom1: Silver update (improved audio) (July 17)
chessNwine: Weekly market wrap (July 16)
BrotherJohnF: Silver update - Value (July 15)
Jim Comiskey: Daily market insights - metals (July 15)
bigdad06: Gary Yantis returns! (July 15)
Gary Yantis: An engineer's look at silver (July 15)
endlessmountain: (pm) Silver Uptrend - Failed moves, options (July 15)
PastorDowell: Gold and silver on the rise again (July 15)
PastorDowell: Max Keiser 1 oz silver round (July 15)
george4title: Sweet potato leaves (July 15)
Peter Schiff Radio: Obama administration vs. Amish (July 15)
BrotherJohnF: Silver update - Blast off (July 14)
stellaconcepts: Silver up $4.50 in 3 days, what's next? (July 14)
FinancialSense.com: John Williams talks with Jim Puplava (July 14)
Howard Lindzon: Talking coffee and social media stocks (July 12)
Larry Edelson: Contagion! (July 12)
> Two weeks ago, Edelson predicted a drop in Spot Silver to 26. "I don't believe we'll get higher than 40, we won't get new highs for a couple of years. I still expect a retest of the 30 and 28 levels."
MrWoodeye: Season of Treason (June 14)
Silver100oz: Gold and silver (anime) (Dec 12 2010)
Matrix Rebellion: The Money Masters (part 1 of 22) (Jan 2 2009)

Audio
Contrary Investors Cafe: James Turk interview (June 30)

Reports
> Note: FAZ flat today (47.70). Still regret selling at 43.03!
Wall Street Journal: China stumbles in yuan grand plan (July 15)

Blogs
(new) Wall Street Examiner: Fiscal suicide (part 1) (part 2) (July 17)
(new) Wakeupfromyourslumber.com: Occupy Wall St - Tahrir style (July 16)
Martin Armstrong: Clarification (July 15)
Jim Sinclair: Jim's mailbox (July 15)
Turd Ferguson: Turd back (July 15)
> "When it begins printing numbers that begin with '4', open interest will explode as big money will rapidly return to the pit. ... I expect silver to rapidly advance toward 48-50."
Jesse's Cafe Americain: Global gold reserves update (July 15)
The Silver Log: 07.15.2011 (July 15)
> He is still bullish on GSVC, sees $24 near term
Le Fly: (am) Going back in (July 15)
> He likes VCLK, CRZO
Jake Gint: Bullish on NUGT (July 15)
chessNwine: Breakout in SWN (July 15)
Peter Schiff: It ain't money if I can't print it! (July 15)
Robert Blumen: US to return to gold standard, really (July 15)
David Galland: The greater depression is upon us (July 15)
George Maniere: How far can GLD run? (July 15)
> Berry: 'Look for $1,700/oz gold by the end of year.'
Brian Hicks: The best (and worst) silver rounds (July 15)
(new) Martin Armstrong: Spending v. Systemic Reform (July 14)
Survival Blog: A prepper goes to college (July 14)
(new) Martin Armstrong: Gold - The final frontier? (July 13)
Gary North: Baloney (July 13)
Gary North: On the road to govt default (July 9)

Press release

Blog comments (good stuff from regular blog readers)
Fortinbras: @Gramp (July 16)
TheGoodDoctor: Trading in this environment (July 15)





Thursday, July 14, 2011

Thursday cinema & library


Video
James Turk: QE3 is inevitable (July 14)
CBS: Obama - No guarantee on August SS checks (July 12)
Bloomberg: Faber likes gold, silver (June 23)
Dylan Ratigan: Fed causes Middle East unrest (Feb 23)

Vlogs
SilverGoldSilver: SLV calls, LULU, the Ben Bernanke (July 14)
chessNwine: Stock market recap (July 14)
Le Fly: The gold is mine, all mine (July 14)
bullorbearreport: Closer to paper collapse (July 14)
endlessmountain: The Silver Log (July 14)
(new) george4title: My heart is not in this anymore (July 14)
Demcad: The debt ceiling crisis (July 13)
(new) pdlumina: Modern-day mass slavery and collapse (July 10)

Reports
Wall Street Journal: McConnell debt plan gains steam (July 14)
Wall Street Journal: Gold rally cools as Bernanke snuffs QE3 hopes (July 14)
Wall Street Journal: Many investors are their own worst enemy (July 13)

Blogs
Turd Ferguson: One more day (July 14)
Cain Thaler: You want QE3? (July 14)
(new) GIC: Gold in Euro terms - Gartman (July 12)



Wednesday, July 13, 2011

Wednesday cinema & library


12:40 pm (Hawaii) Remember now, Helicopter Ben respects the TRADITION of reserve banks acquiring gold as an ASSET, not as MONEY. I think he's a fine actor, this Bernanke guy. He knows what he's doing. He's going to keep printing fiat dollars until the Fed implodes, then the US can start all over with a gold-standard based (40%? 100%?) standard. It's part of the grand plan. He's a professor. He's got theories. This is an experiment unlike any in fiat currency history.

Really. How else can his statement today to Ron Paul be explained? Tradition? And it's my tradition to use toilet paper when using the toilet, and sooner or later, I may be using dollars for TP because they'll be cheaper than TP. Even when TP is on sale.

Video
Ron Paul to Bernanke: Why do central banks hold gold? (July 13)
Yahoo: The truth about taxes (July 13)

Vlogs
GoldMoney.com: Monetary History - 11 parts (July 13)
Jim Comiskey: Daily market insights - metals (July 13)
stellaconcepts: Ron Paul and Ben Bernanke - TRADITION! (July 13)
silverfuturist: Silver explodes! Gold all-time high (July 13)
endlessmountain: Trend line analysis (part 3) (July 13)
endlessmountain: Bernanke {Tradition}, silver-gold ratio (July 13)
Financial Survival Radio: Kerry Lutz: A precious metals star is born (July 13)
chessNwine: Stock market recap (July 13)
Wide Awake News: Dollar blowing up? (July 13)
Silveready1: Precious metals spike (July 13)
Peter Schiff: On China, US (July 1)
USInflation: The day the dollar died (Nov 24 2010)

Audio
Dylan Ratigan: Rep. Ron Paul (July 10)

Reports
Indie Research: Sprott forecasts another silver rally (July 12)

Blogs
Turd Ferguson: Wow! (July 13)
Don't Tread On Me: Silver mentality shifts (July 13)
JakeGint: Please come join the bandwagon (July 13)




Tuesday, July 12, 2011

Fear and no fear


10:14 am (Hawaii) Not long ago, perhaps a few days, the market seemed to tremble with the end of QE2 — the lingering aftereffects. But today? Stuff like Orbitz (OWW) shot up 26%. It was already up from recent lows in the 2.20s to 2.76 in the final half hour of the session. Then, from what I understand, CNBC touted the news of Orbitz's new deal with Virgin Australia.

How good is the deal? I've yet to see any numbers crunched down to specify even the potential of what it means for OWW. But it was enough for daytraders to take OWW from 2.76 to 3.18 before the closing bell. I bought OWW on its last short squeeze a month ago at 3.45, only to sell my teeny weeny position at 2.35 or so a week later. Of course, when the pain is too much, that's usually when smart shoppers open a position, not sell out. But for OWW, it's another day in the daytrader zoo. Where does it go in afterhours? In tomorrow's premarket?

Let's just say that fear is not in the market right now. Obliterated. OWW is back to being a favorite toy. So is GSVC, which hit a new high of 18.70 in the morning, but finally pulled back below 18 before the close. One thing is certain: whether it's an overhyped deal for a stock related to the wonky travel/airlines industries, or a knee-high stock that has a little toe in the sexiest IPO of the future (Facebook), daytraders have a sense of urgency. They have no fear of the present, but fear of the future — say Thursday or Friday or Monday — is coming. They trade recklessly and jump ship at the first sneeze, lest they also catch that dreaded piggy virus that plagues the majority of short-term traders.

Though OWW seems like the better value at 3.25 (afterhours), will it ever get a trigger mechanism like Facebook under its wings? No way. GSVC has a float of 3.34 million shares and could go to 10 just as easily as it could go to 25. But I'm touching neither here. With short-term daytraders and high-frequency robots dominating the action, it makes more sense to plant a seed, take a tiny or small position in an underappreciated name. Then wait. And wait. It breaks out, take half the profit off the table. Let the rest ride.

All that would matter is, who is the next GSVC or OWW? That would be a patient soul's game. Trying to time the ride when the world is typing frantically on CNBC hype is far too crowded far too often. I haven't mastered a darn thing, but I'm getting closer each day.


Friday, July 1, 2011

Stocks up, metals mostly down


7:24 am (Hawaii) Rise and shine. It's cool and cloudy in Honolulu, good sleeping weather. The market is up: Dow +143 points (+1.1%), Nas +36.42 (+1.3%), S&P +15.05 (+1.1%). AAPL is up $5.41 to 341.08 (+1.6%). AMZN up 1.9%, BIDU up 1.4%.

Financials continue to lead the market. Every bank on my Debt Spiral list is up except IRE (flat). NBG is up 4.2%, SCGLY +3.3, Citi +3.2%. In effect, this week has been QE3 Effect week. The $25 million purchase of Treasurys was, arguably, enough to tilt the scales in favor of the bulls. Maybe the news about China attempting to buy more Treasurys while bending the "rules" was a factor. But the result is the Dow is up hundreds of points this week, while volume is below par.

While my Regular watch list is 63% green, my Metals list is red. 28% green, 70% red. The beatdown in silver began in the middle of the night and ZSL is up 5.7% to 20.07. DUST, GLL, DZZ are all up at least 2%. Oddly enough, XG is up 1.5% to 13.00, an all-time high. (XG is one of the miners that Sprott has been buying up recently.)

AGQ, NGD, FSG, NUGT, EGO, TWM, SLV, EXK are at the bottom of the list. Quite ugly on the whole. I remain almost entirely in cash, with small positions in DGP and physical metals. I missed this run, but I also slept well. With a three-day July 4th weekend ahead, I expect shenanigans to the hilt from Comex and all the puppet masters. The long weekend and summer doldrums are why I limited my physical buying this week. If we get a major discount on Tuesday, I'll be ready.

Monday, June 27, 2011

Monday afternoon library

Denise Milani still loves the Dodgers

5:15 am (Hawaii) Believe Bloomberg? They posted a report that the Fed is likely to spend $300 billion on Treasuries without having to print another US Dollar.

In other news, the Dodgers have declared bankruptcy.

Reports & Blogs
Bloomberg: Fed may buy $300 billion in Treasuries after QE2 (June 27 2011)
Cain Tailer: Crude to $60 (June 27 2011)
Turd Ferguson: Gold due for July dip, maybe to 1440 (June 27 2011)
LA Times: Dodgers bankruptcy: Frank McCort says Bud Selig forced the move (June 27 2011)
Bloomberg: Ron Paul's anti-Fed message drives bid (June 26 2011)

Thursday, June 23, 2011

Growing hedges


8:19 am (Hawaii) Safety and preparation matter. I was not planning on touching this filthy market beyond my little position in DGP, but with FAZ running higher (now 50.77) and spot prices for gold and silver dropping, it's worth exploring more hedging. With QE2 ending in a week and no sign of "intervention" by the Fed and powers that be, PMs are helpless to stay above 1510 (gold) and 35 (silver). If that's the implicit plan of the Fed, to drive PMs down to painful levels (say 1400 and 30) and incite public demand for QE3, then it's better to ride that train and make some fiat. (Then buy more physical at discount prices. After all, gold and silver "sales" rarely happen.)

More FAZ is a possibility as a near and long-term play against the crumbling banks. ZSL is a possibility as a play against declining silver price. Even a tiny ZSL position could net a decent profit. As my metals sit and protect me from potential hyperinflation, hedging toward the downside would be useful.

Trying to play crude oil is wild. The White House could pull out more trump cards and whack away against oil "speculators" and bring price below 85/barrel. That would make SCO a lingering temptress. SCO (53.26) is already up 7.1% today, but off its high of 54.31.

GLL (double short gold) and DZZ (short gold) are possibilities for the doldrums.

The one sector I won't touch is miners. They've been beaten to a pulp and remain near lows even with the recent rally. But with energy prices falling, that should work in favor of miners eventually. The hedgies are or were long gold and short miners, but as Euro citizens move out of fiat currency and into hard assets like gold — which has been their behavior in recent years — miners should get a massive bounce. I'll keep watching for EXK and XG at bargain prices, even AG.

Monday, June 13, 2011

Monday Night Library


1:40 pm (Hawaii) Tentative here. I want to start stockpiling my junk silver pile, but spot price appears to be heading back to 33 this week. Maybe 29, 26, even 19 (where the recent run began (19 to 49). I'm willing to wait, but if a whiff of a rumor of QE3 hits the market, who will be left behind? Best approach may be to buy any physical silver in increments, at least for us peons. If you're a billionaire, have fun buying 10,000 ounces at a time.

SCO up a bit after hours to 47.25 (+4.5%). Hard to bet against the decline of crude price this week, but my guess it will be very choppy, but ultimately down toward $90-92 a barrel.

Gold in stronger hands than silver. Waiting for some discount entry points in the coming days and weeks.

Monday readage
WSJ: Fischer's 11th-hour entry adds twist to IMF race (Jun 13 2011)
(video) SGT: Bob Champman on bond fraud, metals fraud, 9/11 (June 13 2011)
CNBC: Gross ays US is in worse shape than Greece (June 13 2011)
Jeff Berwick: Attacks on gold retailers, student loan debters (June 13 2011)
(video) James Turk interviews Sean Fieler (June 13 2011)

Oldies but goodies
(video) News10 (ABC): DOE breaks down Stockton man's door (June 8 2011)
(video) von NotHaus convicted of making currency (May 30 2011)
John Perkins: Libya: It's not about oil, it's about currency, loans (Apr 29 2011)
(video) Alex Jones interviews Bernard von NotHaus (Apr 5 2011)
WSJ: When private money becomes a felony offense (Mar 31 2011)
Valerie Strauss: Education dept. buys 27 shotguns (Mar 11 2010)
David Morgan: Upside down gold (May 8 2009)
(video) Glenn Beck interviews Bernard von NotHaus on liberty dollar (Nov 20 2007)
Star-Bulletin: Mainland FBI raid included Hawaii Dalas, Bernard von NotHaus (Nov 17 2007)

Tuesday, June 7, 2011

Weighing in on Helicopter landing



Turd Ferguson: Waiting for The Bernank (June 7 2011)
Before The Bernank, takes the podium, please take a moment to ponder from where the U.S. government will find its $1,650,000,000,000 needed for next year without continued Quantitative Easing.
1) China? Nope.
2) Japan? Good one.
3) Europe? Mmmm, no.
4) The Middle East? Negative.
5) TBTF banks. Jim Rickards says so. He's fooling himself. $1.65T? From the banks? Hahaha.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said that when it comes to the central bank bond buying program referred to as QE2, "it's over at the end of June," as planned. "My vote will be not to extend it, and I doubt there will be much discussion about extending it" among other policymakers, Fisher said.
... the bets being placed in the XLF for July contracts show that there is a large portion of investors that feel the Fed, and Ben Bernanke just might bring QE3 into discussion, or give hints to its future implementation.

This is what debt really is ... nothing but a gold digger! Just say no, Big Ben!


Thursday, May 26, 2011

This Ass knows



9:24 pm (Hawaii) He's known as the Golden Jackass, but don't be deceived. He is smart as heck and his latest piece covers just about every key issue of the US economy's slow, inevitable decline. I'm not a subscriber and don't plan to become one. But this free essay is a great read.

Here, he writes:
The new Shanghai silver futures contracts are most likely not welcome to the COMEX and its Wall Street overseers. The common practice of ambushing the Gold & Silver prices overnight or immediately after hours in the late afternoon might soon come to an end. 
And this:
Expect no change to the 0% policy (ZIRP) with no change to the heavy monetary inflation (QE), as the path to ruin is set, and the policy of Inflate to Infinity cannot be stopped. Gold will not stop until it surpasses at least $5000 to $7000 in price. Silver will not stop until it surpasses at least $150 to $200 in price. Such forecasts invite mockery, but in two years they will seem prescient.
About CME Mafia:
Few are aware, but the events in the first week of May are what a COMEX default looks like, in its preliminary phase!!! JPMorgan could not meet the schedule of May silver deliveries, that simple. In time, the distance between paper Gold & Silver and physical Gold & Silver will be great. Then the COMEX shuts down, unless they act as a Cash & Carry exchange. Doubtful.
Golden Jackass via Goldseek via Silver Gold Silver: Green shoots, exit strategy, no QE3 (May 25 2011)

So what does this make Jeff Christian? Is he a jackass too? He's forecasting $26 silver.

(video) CPM's Christian forecasts silver at $26, gold near $1400 (May 25 2011)

Monday, February 14, 2011

The Obama Plan for Technology and Finance

I am SO, SO buying AAPL first thing in the morning. It's destined for 500, 600 ... 1,000 ... 2,000 ... 5,000... but it could sell off to 300 first. Maybe I'm not buying AAPL in the morning. No. Well, yeah. Nah ... maybe.


If this comes to pass, I'll christen it my O.R.P. Fiscal Strategic Plan. But really, AAPL is probably due for a selloff when amateurs are forecasting magnificent gains with top-grade graphics. Here comes the crassssshhh...

Update, 9:21 am (Hawaii). OK, I'm not really expecting a crash. A normal pullback of 5 or 10% wouldn't shock me. But if I were long AAPL, I'd cover my backside with some QID should there be a disturbance in the Force. It came in handy for some traders back in Fall 2008.