Showing posts with label Motley Fool. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Motley Fool. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 10, 2007

Luv Alibaba, not so much Yahoo

Alibaba, Alibaba, Alibaba. That name has tantalized and tormented me for the past several months. Great company, huge growth, superb location (China and expanding). But there's no way for the common man (me) to get in the coming IPO on the Hang Seng. So what to do?

Rick Aristotle Munarriz suggests the back door: Yahoo. Yes, Yahoo, which owns 44% of Alibaba not including the 10% slice of Alibaba's IPO.

Alibaba and the IPO Thieves

Much as I love Alibaba, I can't stand Yahoo ($28.36, down 0.03% today) and its bloated (lack of) maneuvering in the U.S. My visualization of Yahoo is Jabba the Hut. Maybe not as slimy and smelly, but really, the blobby guy needs a good 15 minutes to make a 180-degree turn.

And yet, as Munarriz writes, Yahoo has its clutches on Yahoo Japan (the clear winner there), Alibaba and even Gmarket, a Korean stock that I love (but don't own). So Yahoo, with its Softbank connections perhaps, is a champion overseas and a chump domestically. Hmmm... maybe it's worth a closer look, but I've already looked at Yahoo's numbers. Then again, those numbers don't include the huge IPO proceeds that Alibaba is about to rake in. Munarriz forecasts a possible market cap greater than Baidu's.

Maybe the ultimate move by a swift Alibaba would be to IPO in the states. Alibaba, Alibaba, Alibaba. Tempt me no more.

Monday, October 8, 2007

How Foolish they are about RIMM, CROX

Not only did the herd at Motley Fool label CROX as the "Worst Stock of 2007" back in January, they also had a special place for RIMM. According to this story at the MF site, Research in Motion was rated a lowly 2-star stock by the herd.

Motley Fool: Get Ready for the Fall

Amazing. Two stocks that I grade "A" are rated poorly by the Fools. Even with one of their own, Rick Aristotle Munarriz, constantly touting great growth stocks like CROX, the Fools refuse to listen. Oh well. I suppose being independent has its advantages. I won't be lured over a cliff by any herd of Fools.

Tuesday, October 2, 2007

Munarriz: Pigs do fly

Leave it to the Big Aristotle, Rick Munarriz, to say it out loud: Being a pig ain't all bad.

4 Words That Will Make You Poor

Munarriz is one of my favorite market writers, and he declares that holding great stocks for the long, long term is the best approach. I think that's true most of the time with truly sound growth stocks. His best examples, RIMM and GOOG, are undeniable. I don't think using Warren Buffett as a role model works in this day and age, not for growth but definitely for wealth preservation and slow growth.

Munarriz notes that a high P/E for a big growth stock "is not expensive." Well, I beg to differ slightly. A high P/E is proof of an expensive stock. But sometimes paying higher yields greater rewards, so I'm not gonna deceive myself by thinking that any stock is cheap when its P/E is above 30. I just want the growth and dominant position of the Co. That's why BIDU was expensive, but a good, calculated risk at 93. (Not that I bought at that price.)

Tuesday, September 25, 2007

Munarriz touts Crocs again

My favorite Motley Fool writer has struck again. Rick Aristotle Munarriz highlighted four growth stocks of his liking, including Crocs. Why is that notable? Contrary to the herd at Motley Fool, Munarriz has been high on CROX for a long time. At MF, CROX was voted "Worst Stock of 2007" when the new year began. The cumulative rating of the stock was one star out of five.

The big Aristotle also likes 4Kids (KDE), XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) and TiVo (TIVO).

Munarriz: 4 Catalyst Stocks for the Fourth Quarter

I wonder how much longer the MF herd will keep dissing CROX. The stock hit a new (mid-day) high of 64.95 today.

Monday, August 20, 2007

Barker bites off a chunk of fundamental wisdom

This well constructed piece by Bill Barker at Motley Fool is worth reading for all of us who rely on fundamentals.

Barker: The best buying opportunity in 12 years

Though the piece is more than a week old, it's still timely. The market has rebounded, as expected, with positive news from the Fed, but today's slowdown in a sizable segment shows me that there will still be underpriced stocks worth watching this week. (Like a lot of us, I regret not having a lot of dry powder when the market hit its recent bottom last week.)

As far as low P/E stocks go, CNOOC (CEO) still blows me away with its 11 P/E, huge growth and upside potential in Asia. Oil and natural gas are not going to die there. The stock is up from its recent low of 92, but even at 104 is at a discount to its all-time high. Before the recent selloff, CEO hovered around 120.

CEO would make an interesting 'handcuff' buy along with a growing alternative energy play in Asia like Yingli Green Energy (YGE).

Pupule Paul has no position in these stocks.

Thursday, August 9, 2007

Munarritz: NILE is a 'nervous hold'

My favorite Motley Fool writer — OK, the only MF writer I like — shares his perspective about Blue Nile. Rick Munarritz admits he was wrong about NILE, but wouldn't be buying or selling here.

See Mac Greer's video interview with Munarritz. Good conversation includes issues about potential competition in the online jewelry field.

NILE is down 6% to $89 with 50 minutes left in today's market. Significant haircut from yesterday's mid-day high of $98.50, but still well above its moving averages. I'll be waiting for some consolidation.

Pupule Paul has no position in NILE.

Monday, August 6, 2007

Foolish Fools love Volcom, hate Crocs

I enjoy, to some degree, reading Motley Fool. I'm not a subscriber, but the Gardner Brothers have been right far more often than wrong about many great growth stocks, most notably (in my mind) AOL in the 1990s.

As for the ratings of stocks by Fools at the MF forums, that's a different tale. I found their disdain for Crocs quite baffling. In fact, MF gave CROX the not-so-esteemed title of "Worst Stock of 2007" at the beginning of the year.

But that's fairly old stuff. What caught my eye recently was a post at MF about one of their cherished 4-star rated stock, Volcom. Matt Koppenheffer insists that VLCM is worth buying here at a discount. This is more intriuguing to me than most comparisons because my nephew and I debated the merits of both Volcom recently when I did my monthly $100 stock purchase on his behalf.

My nephew is young, but he understands enough about fundamentals like profit margins, return on equity and total cash/debt to know how important they are. When he learned about Volcom's shrinking growth rate, he didn't hesitate for a second to shake his head and give Volcom, a company whose products he loves — I got a Volcom surfer wallet from him for Christmas — a clear No. The bad news from that conference call meant demoting VLCM from my B+ list down to a more pedestrian B. Though CROX is a meager 1-star pick by the Fools, for me, it remains an A- pick.

VLCM is up 4.6% today to $35.88. I agree with Koppenheffer that this is a solid company. But with so many great growth companies around, like Crocs and Apple, I wouldn't settle for Volcom. Until the Co figures out how to get back on the fast track, I'm staying out.

As of today, just for the Fools who diss CROX and applaud slowing VLCM, I'll start keeping track of the two head to head based on today's closing prices. I don't doubt that Volcom will rebound as it did starting last fall. I just don't see Crocs easing up growth anytime soon.

My nephew? He wound up choosing Under Armor (UA), a Co he's liked since he wore his first long-sleeved workout shirt.

Pupule Paul is long CROX and UA, and has no position in VLCM.

Thursday, July 19, 2007

Fools bearish on Hoku

Motley Fool is a source of broad financial information, an online educational niche like few others.

But lately, it seems that MF's sound, fundamental approach to analysis has teetered a bit. After all, MF missed the boat on Google. MF has also panned Crocs to no end. CROX is still a "one-star" stock by M-Foolers who collectively give companies ratings of 1 to 5 stars.

Today, MF writer Matt Koppneheffer explored a number of low-rated stocks, at least by their own brethren. Among them is Hoku Scientific (HOKU), which is up 6 cents for the day to $12.58 on miniscule volume, at least by recent trading standards.

For every reference to Hoku's enormous contracts, there are always bears who contend that the company is a "scam." In all likelihood, this won't change until that first contract is fulfilled and polysilicon is delivered. By then, every bear will turn into an apologist and claim that he covered his shorts and went long while HOKU was still at $12 or whatever the PPS will be when the polysilicon plant is completed in Pocatello, Idaho.

A lot of ifs in the air. Speculation has a place in a portfolio. With HOKU, it's a matter of how much risk you can bear until the first half of 2009.

Disclaimer: Pupule Paul is a teeny bit long HOKU.