Wednesday cinema & library (updated 1200 am HST)

Blogs

(new) SGS: Silver coiling like a cobra (Aug 31)

Turd Ferguson: The PAGE is turning (Aug 31)
Business Insider: Former Reagan adviser: US debt is actually $211 trillion (Aug 31)

Zero Hedge: Is it time for the financial world to panic? (Aug 31)

Dan Norcini: Monthly gold charts, August 2011 (Aug 31)

King World News: Louise Yamada - Critical levels to watch on gold, silver (Aug 31)

King World News: Michael Pento - Here is why gold shorts are worried (Aug 31)

Zero Hedge: Lockhart of Atlanta Fed hints at more QE (Aug 31)

Zero Hedge: Greece ridicules Europe's lies of Greek 'stability' (Aug 31)

Goldcore: Silver ready to break out - Technicals, fundamentals suggest $50/oz early autumn (Aug 31)

Financial Times: China and copper (Aug 31)

Coin World: Mint reprices gold commenms, resumes sales (Aug 31)

Gonzalo Lira: Mr. Cheney's victory lap (Aug 31)

Rob Dietz: Why do so many believe in fantasy of infinite growth on finite planet? (Aug 31)

Reggie Middleton: What's new in the 'avoid debt destruction by any means' soap opera (Aug 30)

SGS: Perth Mint rebuttal (Aug 30)

Deena Stryker: This is why we do not hear about Iceland anymore (Aug 30)

Money Morning: Why gold will replace US Treasuries as world's last risk-free investment (Aug 30)

Coin World: Maple Leaf sets silver record (Aug 30)
Reggie Middleton: Banking industry still looks dismal despite rising share prices (Aug 29)

Coin World: Liberty dollars may be subject to seizure (Aug 29)
Reggie Middleton: US follows Japan into balance sheet recession (Aug 26)

(new) Jason Hommel: 10 biblical skills for managing wealth (Aug 22)

Vlogs

(new) Heretic Productions: Shit and shinola on banks of river of darkness (Aug 31)

(new) Christopher Greene: Time to acknowledge that US is collapsing (Aug 31)

(new) BrotherJohnF: Silver update - Jobama (Aug 31)

(new) Endless Mountain: The Silver Log (Aug 31)

(new) ScrapGoldBusiness: Talking about gold and silver (Aug 31)

(new) Alexiscom1: Why paper silver is in danger, T-bond crisis, bank insolvency (Aug 31)

(new) GuildF40: Metal and channel update (Aug 31)

(new) george4title: Costs of working in US creep upward (Aug 31)

(new) MoneyBags73: Chicago Fed president says QE2 worked but was not big enough (Aug 30)

Tony Sagami: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Profits (Aug 30)

Audio

(new) Peter Schiff Show (Aug 31)

> 1 hr, 14 min

King World News: Stephen Leeb (Aug 30)

King World News: Gerald Celente (Aug 29)

Reports

WSJ: Choice for EU: Bail out Greece or bail your banks (Aug 31)

CBBC: World's biggest gold reserves (Aug 31)

China Business News: State Bank of Vietnam to mobilize more gold from public (Aug 31)

Forbes: US elites begin to confront paper dollar (Aug 29)

Gallup: Americans choose gold as best long-term investment (Aug 25)

Video

CNBC: ETF volatility playbook (Aug 31)

Bad credit, bad hair and Europe?

10:17 am (Hawaii) So what does this half-assed solution to the Greek debt crisis mean? How did it spur the indices higher through the closing bell? Was it all just AAPL?

How much of it was end-of-month window dressing? How many of those same fund bosses sell their AAPL and other assorted non-essentials tomorrow before the peon premarket?

A meltdown in Greece, then Portugal, then Spain, France, UK ... wouldn't all of this have left gold and silver alone to run higher and higher? Are we really that much closer to the stack-your-cans-of-sardines-and-Spam days?

One thing is clear. The daily charts show many, many silver plays with fairly bullish candlestick charts. I don't think it's an all-clear that silver shoots up vertically from here, but it's something to watch.

Big Apple

A major gap open and strong finish on increased volume. Under normal conditions, what's not to like, right? But even AAPL can't withstand the unnatural currents of the global market.

Crude activity

What's good for crude oil is good for the market? Not necessarily, but Sensei Turd Ferguson has been forecasting a crude move to the upside.

Silver hammers

AGQ, AG, EXK, SLV all have hammer candles that are somewhat bullish. It's not enough for me to jump in head first, so I'm still 90% cash. But it's getting attractive.

In an afternoon update, Turd pointed to 37.50 as an area of "stout support", with a re-test of 39.50 soon. I suppose I'm selfish wanting prices below 35 to buy physical.

Gold isn't looking as interesting, which is expected after last week's move (and the sputter action of silver). I don't know what to make of XG's candle today except that it finished with some momentum. An oddity.

The gold junior miners ETF looks nice, but GLD looks tired. It might be time for some consolidation. I'm still positive on gold in general, still holding a small piece of DGP, which also looks tired here.

Rare earths are foreign to me, but MCP looks full of vigor here.

If you look hard enough, the palladium ETF chart looks a little bit like XG. Bullish, but something's not quite right.

Copper ETF looks positive, but is all the news out of China already baked in? Copper was a good play a week ago when China's growth turned up strong, but this is a tightrope here. Long term, I wouldn't fear this trade, but I can't hold anything that long in this market.

I'm sticking to my gut for now and staying mostly out. AAPL will be interesting if it holds its ground, but much of that depends on the chaos in the Euro zone and, well, just about everywhere else.

SGS is skeptical about PMs and noted earlier that if gold can't keep up, silver will be ravaged by the puppet masters.

A pullback in PMs would be par for the course. Gold, in particular, tends to pull back on any gains during the summer. It has the last two summers. I'd look to add more physical on discount prices as volume wanes and the lulls take over.

London bridges and beyond

8:40 am (Hawaii) So are we to believe that the closing of London's exchange tomorrow and Monday for some royal wedding is enough to stifle Spot Silver (and Gold) for a few days? I'm not even close to a guess on that. I do know that there will be speculation now that Spot Silver has entranced traders. Whether Spot Silver tops out at 50 or not, there will be renewed interest beyond silver and gold. Platinum has its share of bulls. And now, so it seems, so does copper. This story by The Canadian Press claims that copper will become the new gold and be more profitable.

Pure hogwash? Doesn't matter. All that matters is whether enough people believe it and whether enough traders buy it. Making a market has less to do with complete truth and more to do with momentum, emotion and belief. Right now, I believe Spot Silver and SLV are a tough place to be. In fact, any return to SLV for me will be strictly for scalping. (Why do I doubt that will hold true?)

Looking ahead and exploring will help. If copper is going to be the next king, I want to be in a favorable position, to be ahead of the crowd, as Jim Rogers often says (words to that effect).

Update 9:07 am (Hawaii) SLV gives me the willies with its empty vaults and all. So I'm leaning toward daytrading AGQ from now on instead, but that's no piece of cake either. Though AGQ rallied huge yesterday from 320 to 380 this morning (Bernankepalooza effect), it fell to 345 mid-day today. Even with a small position, that's a huge range that requires micromanaging. That's the nature of an ultra-bullish ETF. AGQ vs. SLV. I know the biggest advantage for AGQ, but the speed is blinding in either direction. Currently at 364.47.  

Silver vs. Gold vs. Platinum vs. Copper. Gold seems poised for a big move, and both gold and silver remain in high demand by China and, to a lesser extent, the public at large (for investment). Platinum and copper may be interesting, but are they worth trading on dips? Or are prices stuck in the mud because of energy costs? 

Precious metals vs. Cash. No contest. Inflation is eating us alive, whether it's gas prices or food prices. That's why the right PM was the place to turn fiat into a growth vehicle at the start of this year (and last year). Right now, the environment is tricky. I think Spot Silver will consolidate here in the 40s after that huge surge recently. I'd rather buy on the south side of 45 than north. Simple as that, though it might not happen again for a long time. AGQ would be a nice start at 350, and it dipped below there during today's selloff. I wasn't ready for a trade at that time, not after getting out of SLV just before that. I need an algorhythmic tradebot to overcome my emotional state. 

UCO vs. Cash. Again, no contest. A buy in UCO (ultra crude oil ETF) just two months ago would've netted any trader a 50% gain. Even a modest gain in UCO is better than cash. I still want a small position just to hedge against rising gas costs. We pay $4.50 a gallon here. I'd like a piece of UCO below 60.50. 

Silk Road

Update 11:35 am (Hawaii) Right on cue: SLV was trading at 47.25 after hours with a tiny ask lot size and a large (35k) bid when Fast Money starts talking Spot Silver and SLV. A guest talks about the 160M that came into double-bear silver ETF ZSL yesterday compared to the 230M that's been in SLV year to date. Then Pete Najarian talks about the options activity on the bear side, spells out the name of the ETF and instantly, SLV plunges to 47.16. The big bid disappears. SLV is down to 47.10. 

Small fries like me can't beat the big boys. The space-alien machines rule. I'm still not ecstatic about selling my position too low, but I don't miss having to wonder about SLV blowing up sooner or later. 

Longings of a madman

9:24 pm (Hawaii). One convenient aspect of watching futures charts is that I don't have to follow global news to figure out what might be going on. Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are tanking overnight. Crude oil was back above 105 (now 104.85). Gold is back over 1430 and silver is staying above 36. For now.

Copper continues to be ravaged and pillaged. Who knows what happens by the opening bell, but apparently, someone in Libya is not in a good mood.

Day of Rage just two days, no, 1 1/2 days away.

I don't trade futures, have no plans to do so. I don't care much about the details of copper and cotton, etc., except for the one thing the commodities tell me in general: when demand for industrial metals plummets, we're all in for a long, mediocre ride. The market goes flat (especially without QE3) and there are few winners on either side of a trade. 

I'd love to see silver explode as much as the next guy, but it still reeks of overconfident, arrogant bullish mania as Dendreon did a few years back. We don't know exactly who's playing who, and we don't know exactly who's a shill or not in some cases. We don't know if JP Morgan is truly teetering on the brink of collapse due to (fill in your theory here), or if they're simply honoring a longtime tradition of planting shills among the rest of us, encouraging the average Joe to dive headfirst and 100% into a "sure thing" like silver. Then came the rush of DNDN naked shorts that hammered the masses in "flash crashes" that were precursors to the actual market-wide Flash Crash of two years ago. 

That's part of the reason why I enjoy the view from the rafters. I'll get in and out occasionally, but long-term holding is out of the question. Marrying any stock (or short) right now warrants a thorough mental examination. 

Update, 9:52 pm (Hawaii). Adding EDZ and TZA to the watch list in the morning. Still like UCO as a hedge if I dare go long AAPL, but that's not a comfortable situation, not even close. The only way I'd go long AAPL is if the situation in Libya, Yemen and Saudi Arabia were cooled off, starting with the removal of said madman. Appears that won't be happening anytime soon, at least not with help from US naval forces. Unless this info is all a trick. Then that would be a very cool trick.