Friday, July 6, 2012

Dollar dollar bill y'all

The weekend is upon us after a strange week thanks to the 4th of July being on a Wednesday. AAPL roared higher, up to 614 yesterday, but is now at 603+ as the market pulls back. A lot of that is due to the LIBOR scandal, another bankster scam that has every stock on my Debt Spiral Dance list red. Deutsche Bank is under investigation, down 5.3% to 33.55 and near its low of the day. Soc Gen (SCGLY) is down 5.9%. It's going to be industry wide and FAZ is ripping higher for a second day in a row.

The US banksters aren't being hit as hard, but it's still a bloody mess: BAC -2.1%, C -2.4%, JPM -1.5%, MS -2.4%. The dollar (UUP) and euro ultra short (EUO) march higher, as does TVIX. Oddly, gold and silver are being bludgeoned along with financials. Most stocks are moving on miniscule volume today. Buyers have run from the market like it's a house on fire.

Taking precaution yesterday turned out to be good given that my sleeping hours overlap with the market. Holding AAPL from 95 or whatever would be different, but since I didn't do that, playing with AAPL at 600+ is turbulent to say the least. With the Dow (-161), Nasdaq (-49) and S&P (-16) down 1.2% to 1.9%, it's not the time to try and be a hero.

Thursday, July 5, 2012

No messing with Uncle Sam (updated)

Dollar is powering higher this morning, taking most stocks lower. AAPL was somewhat of an exception, off its premarket high (602.98). The skittish mood was enough to bump me out at 601.50 for a small profit (+8.60 or so). AAPL could hold this morning's gain, but after running the past few sessions, it's due for a minor drop.

Economy is doing a little better with this morning's strong payroll number, strong meaning better than expected. That's part of the reason why the QE bulls are tentative for the time being. I'll be getting some sleep.

Update 9:40 am HST: AAPL ran hot in the face of head winds in the market. While the Dow (-34) and Nasdaq (-3) were ragged, AAPL rose to 614+ as I slept. Now at 611.75. In hindsight, holding my position with a stop-loss at 600 or 599 would have done well. But I did sleep well.

Apple Inc earnings are on July 16. Coupled with the news late last week about the 7-inch iPad, the stock is doing its usual pre-earnings explosion. AAPL defies the market; FAZ is up 2.7%. TVIX up 2.2%. UUP (US dollar) up 1.3%. EUO up 3.5%.

Tuesday, July 3, 2012

Apple crunch?

Weird mix of good and bad news for AAPL as the market was generally flat in a low-volume, pre-holiday, half-day session. I got back in AAPL yesterday afterhours at slightly below 593. Shares hit 600 today and closed above 599. I'm holding the position over the holiday.

Whatever weirdness came out on AAPL, this just came out several minutes ago: a 7-inch iPad will be (reportedly) released this year. Good news? I own no iPad, no iPhone, not even an iPod. But this sounds good for AAPL longs.

Business Insider (via Bloomberg): Apple will launch smaller, cheaper iPad this year (July 3)

Monday, July 2, 2012

Apple turnover

In AAPL on Friday at 583.95. Out today at 591.50.

Woke up a few minutes ago to find the market generally flat on lower volume. AAPL has lower volume, too, but was up above 593 in the first half of the session. I almost forgot about that position. That's how deep into summer mode I am. But I locked in a decent gain, not interested in re-entering. The only possibility would be a catalyst late in the day, and AAPL would see another jolt of volume as it did early in the session.

Thursday, June 14, 2012

Thursday cinema & library

We're on the verge of some potentially titanic movements in the next few days. Sit tight and avoid the turbulence, or at least take a barf bag with you. Better yet, get on your bike and enjoy a fine summer evening.

Tyler Durden: Positioning for weekend: BofA's risk cheat sheet (June 15)
TraderFlorida (video): Thursday wrap (June 14)
streetmoney21 (video): Currency markets prepare for total chaos on Monday (June 14)
Le Fly: Come get it (June 14)
Charles Biderman: How to benefit from global financial mess (June 14)
Street Insider: Unusual mid-day movers (NBG) (June 14)
Barron's: Apple potential 'game changer' in mobile payments (June 13)
Reggie Middleton: As predicted last year, French and Greeks in race (June 13)

Titanic or Titillating Thursday

2:24 am (Hawaii) The Spanish 10-year is at 7%. How fricken outlandish is that? No nation can survive long with something like that. It's just ... implausible. No country was built to survive something like that. Yet there it is. Infuckingcredible.

But the world is not coming to an end. If there's one good thing about the internet, it's this: the masses share everything, good and bad ideas, at warp speed. So long as there is power, ideas and solutions spread at a rate we as a species have never seen before. So it's impossible to measure that component and believe with all certainty that we're up shit creek for good.

It just feels like it sometimes.

Here's what amuses and/or infotains this morning.

Business Insider: Initial unemployment claims MISS BIG (June 14)
Joe Weisenthal: I just got a ride to my hotel in Athens and BOY was it depressing (June 14)
Business Insider: Holy Crap: Spanish 10-year yield hit 7.0% (June 14)

Monday, June 11, 2012

No wind behind Spanish sails (updated)

7:41 am (Hawaii) The Spanish bailout had Dow futures +140 at one point last night. My guess was that AAPL would hit 590 today. So I got up a little while ago, turned on the TV to see the Dow down 30 points. Stunning. No +100 or +200 day?

AAPL nearly hit 590, hitting 588.50 intraday, but is now back at 581+, barely positive even though its annual developers conference has begun. (They've released new and improved MacAir.) The bailout lasted for the blink of an eye. FAZ, which gapped down nearly a dollar to 25.00 at the open, is now at 26.56. I'm still all cash and probably will leave this mess alone. But it's telling how any bailout is having almost no effect on the overall market.

Update 10:16 am Took a shot at FAZ at 26.92, ran to 27.04 and fell. Got out at 26.80 for a teeny loss. Got back in at 27.09. (Missed a buy at 26.93 on the way back up.) Sold at 27.34 before the closing bell. Net positive for the day, basically break even. Had I held from 26.92, would've been a small, but decent paper profit. The after-hours puppeteers have FAZ at 27.39.

Almost impossible to hold anything overnight unless you have a major cushion, like say AAPL since 95. But even AAPL took a couple of roundhouse blasts to the face, falling to 571+ before the bell after being up nicely early in the day. Dow -142 (-1.1%), Nas -48 (-1.7%), S&P -16 (-1.3%). Surely another bailout coming this week, likely for Italy, which means another gap higher for the indices. I'd rather wait for the pop and fade that. Or just watch from the top row with my binoculars.

Thursday, June 7, 2012

Status quo

On the road again and it's nice to be out of the traffic mess and snarl, the craziness of people in tight quarters. No, out here it's quiet, less traffic and even with a job to do, I can relax almost instantly. Catching up with today's price action. China cut interest rate, but Bernanke was predictably stoic after a huge two-day run-up in the market. Don't forget the bullish comments coming out of Fed bankers recently, and Bernanke had to stay quiet, ie douse the flames with a sprinkling of cold water.

Would've been profitable to short financials after the open today via FAZ, but I was asleep at 3:30 am and later was on the road. It's looking more and more like a dead-cat bounce, though this one is completely attached by umbilical cord to monetary easing (or not) and Eurozone politics. That's what makes it difficult to hold FAZ overnight. Had I tried this yesterday, I would've started today's session down an full buck. Not worth the risk.

Looks like a lot of jibber-jabber on the way from people like Fed bankers, and that'll make for a lot of useless running in place between now and those key Eurozone elections in about 10 days. Just enough time to really take a deep breath and enjoy the view.

Wednesday, June 6, 2012

Wednesday cinema & library (updated)

Abigail Doolittle: Runaway day likely to fail (June 6)
Keiser Report: Paper money collapse (June 5)
David Fry: Big Wednesday short squeeze (June 7)
The Guardian: Spain calls for new tax pact to save euro (June 6)
Wall Street Journal: Lockhart says Fed must stand ready to provide more support (June 6)
Le Fly: 'We are going the fuck higher' (June 6)
Turd Ferguson: 'DO NOT be surprised by a dip/profit-taking' in metals (June 6)
Financial Post: Gartman admits he made bad call on gold (June 6)
Jim Rogers: 'Please get worried' (June 4)

Idling and parking (updated)

8:26 am (Hawaii) Some long, fun days for me with summer here, which means I've slept through the past two sessions for the most part. Even though I knew futures were up more than 100 points last night. The Dow is +203 with about 90 minutes left. AAPL is hovering around 570, off its intraday high of 573.85. AGQ is up 5.1% to 43.86, one of the most obvious signs that sentiment is with the bulls, i.e. euro printing is about to crank into full madness.

DGP is barely green today, however. Also note that volume is a pittance, so this move could pop any moment. It's a three-legged chair. It's a lack of sellers more than an onslaught of buyers. Even social media are up: FB +0.9%, YELP +4.3%. Even GRPN +7.4%.

Finnies are rallying again. JPM is +2.6% and FAS is +6.66 percent (not making that up). VXX is down 4.8% and TVIX is -8.9%.

I have some work to do, in and out this morning (yes, it's still morning here in the middle of the Pacific), and I'm not convinced about this move higher. I may dip into DGP or even NUGT with a tight stop, but that's it. This arena is half empty, and if the balloon pops in Europe, the tankage will resume. My gut tells me they have to print, though. It's a conundrum.

Update 10:04 am In and out of FAS for a quick little profit. Got in at 77.70 a few minutes before the closing bell. Swung lower to about 77.45 before it closed strong. A few minutes after the bell, sold at 78.45. They'll puppeteer this thing back to 77.70 or so at some point today, I'm guessing.

Of course, now that I'm out, it will go to 80, then 85, then 90. They must print euros. Simple as that. So why am I not in gold and/or silver? Both have made big runs recently. I'll wait until things cool off a little more before walking into that. Because any whiff of bad news regarding the ECB, eurozone, Germany ... and FAS goes back to 68. And lower.

Friday, June 1, 2012

Weekend cinema & library (updated)

Bokor Mountain Church, Cambodia

Le Fly/iBankCoin: Germany's third World War (June 3)
Scott Bleier/iBankCoin: Growth at any cost? (June 3)
Business Insider: Soros reveals exact moment Merkel started Euro collapse (June 2)
Business Insider: Former hedge funder presents terrifying version of end game (June 2)
Bloomberg: Merkel rejects debt sharing (June 2)
Reuters: Funds pull out of commodities, most bearish since end-2011 (June 1)
Zero Hedge: 'The End Game' (June 1)
Zero Hedge: The deer is back (June 1)
Zero Hedge: Santelli and Kaminsky on broken rules, unpredictability, deleveraging (June 1)
Zero Hedge: Sorry folks, QE3 ain't coming, even the Fed doves admit it (June 1)

News trumps all

7:50 am (Hawaii) I've been disgusted with myself all week, which is no way to prepare for the market. Heck, in that mindset, it would've been best to leave home for awhile, get outside and get some clarity, which I did a few times. It's not the amount in trading losses that bothered me; it was relatively fractional. It was the whipsaw nature of price action and my inability — or unwillingness — to respect the lack of direction.

But I was all cash most of the week after the close, and that game plan was best. Though I wasn't long FAZ overnight, I wasn't long the market either and this -247 point move in the Dow comes on the back end of these negative PMI numbers across the world in the past 36 hours. It's tempting to go short (via FAZ or TVIX), but the risk here is that with all the bad news absorbed, and Obama done speaking (the indices dove again as he began), the market is done puking for the time being.

DJ -2%
Nasdaq -2.6%
S&P -2.3%

Overnight futures were at -110 before I hit the sack, so getting up to see this isn't a major shock. But gold is UP. DGP is +8.2%. AAPL is down 2.5% ($14) to 563. Even some of the stocks that had been resilient, like JACK, are down more than 4%.

The strange thing is, volume is SO LOW. In some cases, it is miniscule. So is this a true capitulation move even without volume? Maybe there are simply no sellers left and this really is the bottom. But I'm not willing to go long here. Not yet.

Update 8:13 am In FAZ at 29.75.

Update 8:20 am Out FAZ 29.62. It was up to 29.83 and topped out. Should've protected myself and stopped out (manual) for break-even. Tiny loss, but it's the principle. During that intraday top by FAZ, AAPL bottomed at 560.52. AAPL now 562.50, FAZ at 29.50. Anything with a gain over 10% like FAZ is due to sell off, no surprise.

Thursday, May 31, 2012

Late night munchies (updated)

9:47 pm (Hawaii) Had another couple of very small losses today despite being up in one at an early point, and the fact that FAZ finished the day up off its lows didn't bring me any consolation. It finally fricking dawned on me: I've been trying to time breakouts (as was the case successfully last week) instead of simply, simply trading the ranges.

Yeah. It's that fricking simple. In hindsight, of course. We are now in the midst of all this PMI economic news across the globe, not that any of it changes the banking nightmare in the Western world. It's bad enough that one Mr. Fly, who has always insisted that the puppeteers will have no choice but to print en masse sooner or later, is cautioning against hero behavior in this wretched market.

Under a do nothing scenario, stocks will crash. Economies will grind to a halt and life as you know it will change. I am fairly certain, under a full retard scenario, the markets will close, possibly for months until shit gets figured out. They’d have to do this in order to avoid bank runs.
My advice to you: keep the majority of your net worth out of the market. It’s okay to play with stocks, since we all like to gamble. But it won’t be funny if your net worth gets halted for trading for 6 months, while you starve to death in your fucking Mcmansion. This advice applies to short sellers too. Your fantastic tailwinds will be kept away from your purse, if the markets go on holiday.
A bit more from Le Fly regarding the possibility of deflation:
This is as bad as it gets. The markets are tame because people believe QE3 or some bailout is around the corner. If we do not get either, bear with me as I prepare this next sentence: WE ARE GOING DOWN 5,000 DOW POINTS IN SHORT ORDER. 
Rumors that Greece cannot secure credit to buy oil, are running rampant, and have been forced to secure it from large European corporations, with onerous conditions. Spanish and Italian credit is in danger too, which is why oil is tanking so hard. See, boys and girls, that’s what deflation does. Credit is non-existant and money becomes scarce. Food, oil and basic materials will not be delivered.

Update 11:08 pm Business Insider reports that European markets and US futures are sinking because of the PMI data. An hour ago, futures were roughly -45. They're now at -81. But really, the more this teeters off center, the closer the market gets to a reprieve from the central banksters. Or not.
Josh Brown:
In 2008, with global markets in free-fall and the Beijing Olympics looming, the Chinese Ministry of Doing Whatever The Fuck It Wants pulled a stimulus package out of its ass so large that it represented almost 20% of the country's GDP. We're talking General Tso's Shock and Awe. 
And it did the trick - a little too well. Chinese real estate and infrastructure spending went banoodles, getting to the point where they were building ghost cities just to keep the machinery cranking and home prices greatly exceeded what anyone could actually afford to pay. The central government decided enough was enough and began to use policy to tamp down on the bubble. And things haven't been the same ever since.

This story in the NY Times is more than two years old, but already Spanish citizens were stuck between a rock and a hard place, unable to return to farm labor jobs. Like China, an unprecedented construction boom preceded the inevitable downturn in the economy.

Not a pretty place for the average joes of the world. Always getting screwed over, sure 'nuff.

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Looking ahead (updated)

2:39 pm (Hawaii) Kinda regretting not holding any FAZ. Realizing that smaller positions, even smaller than what I've sometimes traded, will work best through the choppiness.

Business Insider: Nikkei tanks right away as industrial output comes in weak (May 30)

But @TraderFlorida has been spot on in regard to technical analysis, riding AAPL down until last week, and now he's bullish on it for the short term.

TraderFlorida (video): Nice bounce today (May 30)

I'm all cash for now. Who knew AAPL would jump $10 while the Dow would plunge 160?

From earlier today:

Business Insider: ECB sends out rejection of FT report that it blocked Spanish bank recap (May 30)
Business Insider: Here comes the busiest 48 hours in history of economics (May 30)
Telegraph: Spain faces 'total emergency' (May 30)

Update 8:53 pm 

AZ Daily Sun: Asia stocks fall as Italy, Spain bond costs rise (May 30)
Orange County Register: Robert Samuelson: Why is there no Greek bank run? (May 30)
Bloomberg: Spain's banking rescue should become example for Europe (May 30)

Wacked Wednesday? (updated)

3:46 am (Hawaii) Didn't like my trades yesterday. Liked the market whiplash even less. Aimless but I got myself stuck in that merciless washing machine. This time, the market shows direction (down) and I'm back in with FAZ (at 26.78) and TVIX (at 8.48). The TVIX position is quite small this time, meaning I can withstand a 2% or 3% drop. Stop losses, as always, are in place.

Why the drop in indices today (1% to 1.3%)? China says no stimulus, serious stimulus is coming. Is this really news? No. But volume is in this negative market today.

Update 3:56 am A wtf moment indeed. FAZ dipped to 26.69 and stopped me out. But TVIX went even more dippy down to 8.45 and stopped me out. It touched 8.45 for a few seconds and ran back up to 8.55. In other words, they played me and my stop loss orders. I'm at a net loss (very small) but it sucks that I was up (small) for the past 25 minutes or so and got suckered. Yeah. Note to self, no stop losses on TVIX from now on.

Update 11:08 am Woke up about 25 minutes ago to see the Dow closed -160. Indices were off by 1 to 1.4%. But the move in financials, FAZ, TVIX are major. My entire Debt Spiral list is red with big losses today. FAZ fell to 26.99, then ran into the close and is at 27.55 after hours. In other words, I would've had a winning trade if I'd stayed in. (I wouldn't have held all the way down below 27, but I could've started a new position in that area.)

TVIX, which I bought early today at 8.48, dipped to 8.32 by 2 pm Eastern time before running hard. TVIX was at 9.10 after hours and is now at 8.94. I traded in and out of FAZ and TVIX with zero success today. Time to change strategy. I had the right picks, but the wrong timing.

It's unpredictable even though so many bloggers and analysts claim it is not. Sure there's a bounce ahead, but when? Nobody really knows anything except that when it bounces, it will be big. Until then, the dollar keeps rising, the euro keeps dropping (below 1.24) and my timing needs to be better.

Oddly enough, AAPL ran to 579.99 before cutting back to 578.10 after hours, up 1% for the day. @TraderFlorida, as usual, is dead on about AAPL's bounce. His call was bullish if AAPL gets above 576 on big volume. Today's volume, 13.4M shares, is a bit more than Monday and Tuesday levels, but not close to last week's numbers (22M+).

AAPL up, Apple plays down

Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Bouncy indeedie (updated)

4:11 am (Hawaii) Volume plus a bounce on the bull side got me into FAS at 81.75. I was up a teeny bit when the consumer confidence report was released and I got stopped out flash crash style for a small loss. Within a couple of minutes, FAS rallied off 81.25 and head right up to 82. I re-entered at 82.25, put my stop loss order in and it has ranged around that price since.

AAPL had been up to 570 briefly, came down to 566+ and is now back at 570. If there is no bad news coming down the pike, this bounce could last a few sessions or more. Short squeezes galore.

Update 4:38 am Out of FAS at 82.15, teeny loss. JPM tanked horribly even as FAS stayed above 82. In the meantime, AAPL surged higher. So that ended the FAS trade. Whatever happened with JPM, I wasn't going to stick around waiting to see FAS drop like a rock, too. Got in AAPL at 573 with a stop loss in. AAPL is already up $10 (+1.8%) but if today turns out to be pivotal, even just for a short-term bounce, there's way more upside coming. If.

Update 1:59 pm In AAPL at 573, stopped out at 570.50. Wicked churning and I should've had the sense to stay the hell out. AAPL closed above 572, but dipped below 571 in the past hour or so after hours. Three trades today, three small losses, but psychologically not good. Need to protect confidence and capital.

Friday, May 25, 2012

Weekend cinema & library (updated)

10:37 am (Hawaii) Gold (and silver) got a nice gap up this morning thanks to the CME mafia's loosening (death) grip on margin requirements. Most of the market though was flat, meandering, aimless. The skeptic in me wants to be in FAZ since we have Memorial Day weekend ahead and that gives the Euro boneheads three entire days to keep screwing their system up. (Is it reasonable to expect such disparate cultures and nations to be unified? We would never enter a union with Canada, Mexico, Panama and Haiti, would we? Bad comparison, I know, but how can Germany not despise Greece at this point?)

So gold's leap higher appeals to the optimist in me. Maybe the puppeteers are ready to jolt this market to new highs like 2011. But craziness in the euro zone is going to happen, just a matter of when. So I remain neutral, all cash.

Bloomberg: Deutsche Bank's Fitschen said failed Greece lacks leaders (May 25)
Zerohedge: About that European stress test (2011) and where pain in Spain is raining next (May 25)
Zerohedge: Greece has proved that ECB bailout scheme based on lies, fraud (May 25)

Update Monday 8:14 pm The pessimists/realists/skeptics could be right 99% of the time. I could agree with them 99% of the time. But that 1% they're wrong could be precisely when the market bounces. Probably when more fiat starts rolling off the digital presses. Then what? What good will it do anyone to be short the market?

Still, it's good to hear both sides of the story.

Economic Collapse: 25 signs that smart money has written off Southern Europe (May 28)
Reggie Middleton (video): Breaking down muppetology (May 28)
Le Fly: One more great trade until September (May 28)

Sandstorms and saliva (updated 9:46 am)

1:25 am (Hawaii) Traded just once on Thursday (small loss in TVIX, a truly wicked bitch of an ETF), just busy running errands, getting things done. No choice. Had to be done. Trading in a thin market that does nothing but eat its own vomit? Yes, I can take a pass on that even if I'm not running around away from from home.

This morning, CME mafia is lower margin requirements. I haven't kept track much of precious metals for months, so if this is a first this year or last, this might be huge news. Remember when CME kept raising margin requirements awhile back? They did it four times in nine sessions and gold spot price cratered.

So, my conspiracy theorists out there, is this an engineered move to get the market rolling higher?

MarketWatch: CME Group cuts margins for gold futures (May 25)
NY Times: In Spain, bank transfers reflect broader fears (May 25)
CBS News: EU summit ends with lots of uncertainty, few plans (May 24)
Bloomberg: Monti says Germany can be persuaded on euro bonds (May 24)

Update 8:43 am Back in FAZ at 26.91. I bought (impulsively) on a spike from 26.72 to 26.93. Soon as I re-entered, it sold off back to 26.75 or so. My stop loss was in place had it gone lower. Now FAZ is back to 26.91. Volume that spiked in the past 30 minutes. Roughly an hour and a half ago, both FAZ and gold rose and held their gain. Banks selling off and gold rising? Unusual.

AAPL also made a run during that time, from 560 to 563, but gave back all of it and more in short time. AAPL fell to 559+ and is now above 561. Thin market, unpredictable, a lot of games being played.

Not planning to hold FAZ over this three-day weekend. There's always the possibility of some form of compromise out of the euro zone. There's also the possibility of ugliness as tension rises in Greece and Spain.

Update 9:46 am Out of FAZ at 26.93 (+0.02/share) for a break-even trade. It ran a bit to 27.13, but I just raised my stop loss instead of selling for a smallish profit. The market is indecisive as ever going into the close.

Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Postmarket prognasticating

11:31 am (Hawaii) Well well. On TV, the jabbermouths at CNBC claim that EU leaders went into tonight's summit with an open mind about Eurobonds. Yet this story in Ireland's Journal notes that Merkel remains staunchly against such things.

“I believe that they are not a contribution to stimulating growth in the eurozone,” Merkel said, adding that such instruments were expressly forbidden by the EU’s own treaties.

Can't blame her. This story came out roughly at 5 pm Eastern (35 minutes ago), which may explain the little pop in FAZ after hours. It's at 26.85 on the usual thin volume. AAPL is smoking hot, now at 573. I'd love to re-enter, but anything negative out of that summit will knock the market down immediately.

Huge hump day (updated 9:55 am)

5:31 am (Hawaii) It could be huge. Or just a puff of smoke blowing by. Will anything really change with the "informal" EU summit?

Re-opened a position in FAZ at 28.05. With each passing day in May, it's easy to say in hindsight that it's better to just let a position run. Just hold it overnight; Europe is a long way from printing more euros. But I've been burned before on overnight holds of FAZ. And mornings like this when I can't get wake up before 5 am, too risky. There's time to catch any (Eastern time) afternoon runs.

RTE News: What can the EU summit deliver? (May 23)
Bloomberg: European Banks Unprepared for Greek Exit from Euro (May 23)

Update 6:44 am Stopped out of FAZ at 28.25 (+0.21/share). Tiny profit, I'll take it. Volume at its softest of the day as FAZ faded from its high. Indices are all roughly -1.3%. Nothing bullish (or bearish) out of the EU summit. Yet.

Update 6:58 am Re-entered FAZ at 28.24 as it bounced off a swing to 28.15. Stop loss as always is in place. Volume low, whipsaw action could get more drastic. Maybe at the top of the hour.

Update 7:23 am Stopped out of FAZ at 28.07 (-0.17/share) for a tiny loss. I'm now break even for the day. The chart looks like it's tiring and the indices are starting to rally a bit. (DJ -1.1%, Nas -1%, S&P -1%.) FAZ could jump from here, but I'm not going to force a trade.

AAPL back in the green, now 559.40, up more than $2. No idea if it will stick, though @TraderFlorida has a clear-cut view of where it will go.

Update 7:52 am The Fibonacci retrace from today's high (off yesterday's close of 27.03) is at 27.90. FAZ was at 27.88 just a minute ago, now bouncing to 28.03. Funny how that usually works. A little more volume and I might be convinced.

Update 7:58 am Back in FAZ at 28.06. Stop loss in place.

Update 8:03 am Need to check news far more frequently. This hit the wire at about 7:15 Hawaii time (45 minutes ago):

Bloomberg: Greek Capital Boost May Help Banks to Staunch Deposit Outflows (May 23)

FAZ was at 28.20 before this headline. Then it plummeted to 27.88, which I saw earlier. But I left my stop loss alone after buying at 28.06, and it's now back at 28.10 after wavering below 28. The injection of 18B euros ($23B in dollars) is a band-aid on the bank jog problem.

Update 8:34 am Stopped out of FAZ at 28.12 (+.06/share) for the teeniest of profits. It was up to 28.32 and yanking back violently in the past several minutes on strong volume.

Update 8:44 am That was ugly. Entered FAZ at 28.03, and the second it hit, it slumped to 27.98 and it got fugly after that. Dropped to 27.83 in a matter of 1 minute if that and I was stopped out for a small loss. Volume was big, and I should've taken the cue from a long red candle on the 3-min chart just 12 minutes ago or so. Trying a bit too hard here, time to step away.

Update 9:35 am In AAPL at 568.80. Passed on it earlier at 566. Stop loss is fairly tight. Strictly a day trade. Nasdaq crossed over to green a couple of minutes ago. The summit in Europe has the market bullish for the time being.

Update 9:47 am Out of AAPL at 570.80 (+2.00/share) for a tiny profit. I raised my stop loss a few times, but once it hit 572.80 and sold off fast, I needed to get out. I wanted to change the stop loss to a limit sell for a higher price, but it moved a little faster to the downside and I chose not to get too greedy. Just wanted to get out with a profit and took a price below bid due to the speed of price action downward. (Stop loss was at 570.30, so I did better making the quickie adjustment.)

No way I would've held AAPL overnight. Too much risk at the summit.

Update 9:55 am Euro madness? More like euro anxiety. Tempting to get a little position in FAZ here, being pessimistic on Greece, but probably staying out until we get some news from the summit.

Reuters: Eurozone tells members to make contingencies for Grexit (May 23)

Furious anger awaiteth?

12:02 am (Hawaii) "Awaiteth" surely can't be a word, but I like the way it sounds right after "furious anger." Here's another piece by one of my favorite stock bloggers, Le Fly. He's very somber, not a lick of humor. That kind of saddens me. Here, Fly asks, 'Can it possibly get any worse?'

I had my share of a bad trade or two this month. But I managed to avoid getting long and deep these past couple of days. That's nothing to be proud of; my quick triggers and paranoia prevent me (often) from those nice, large gains, while a pro like Le Fly banks and banks and banks. But he's up a river of worry right now. Hope it works out.

Scott Bleier, who blogs on Le Fly's site, suggests going all cash in the 401(k) before the market crashes. In an earlier blog, Bleier notes this:
This year is just like last year. And the year before. And being an election year won’t help. Remember what happened in 2008?

Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Bankster purgatory

11:45 am (Hawaii) Morgan Stanley (MS) hit 13.90 early in the day as the RobotMarket pushed financials higher and higher for a second day in a row. But it is now at 13.10 and falling after hours on news that Massachusetts has subpoenaed the company over the Facebook mess.

Add to this the coming congressional hearings into JPMorgan that will give every media channel an abundance of Jamie Dimon footage (ie plank walking interrogation) and it's unlikely FAS and the finnies will rally again for awhile. So why am I not long FAZ?

The whole Greek show tomorrow is going to set the table tomorrow. I'd rather wait for that first.

Rudderless market (updated 12:32 pm)

8:08 am (Hawaii) I still think the robots are in control, just not as firmly as yesterday. AAPL ran to 573 and ran out of steam. The buying ended and it has since pulled back to 563 where it drifts in an abyss. The indices looked about ready to give all its gains back today, but have stayed positive in the past hour.

Somehow someway the financials are getting a "lift". That's where I think G8 hit the switch and got the robots cranked up. Again. 95% of my Debt Spiral list is green, and that includes NBG and STD. JPM is up 5.3% to 34.24 even though it is (in my mind) almost certain that their losses are about to double or triple (or worse).

Sure no stock goes to 0 in a straight line, but this is borderline comedy that insolvent institutions are being propped up on nothing (that we peons can know about). In the end, the printing presses will hum. In the end-end, they will not. But that's not today and I haven't hit a buy order yet. All for the best.

Some reading for your pleasure and education:

Jim Wyckoff: Top 10 mistakes traders make (May 21)

Update 9:25 am Back in FAZ at 26.85. I wanted in at 26.70, missed it by a hair. Was looking for a breakout above 26.80 or a pullback to the range low of 26.55. Indices pummeled in the past 15 minutes. Nasdaq in the red with AAPL back to 557.

Greek/Eurozone has a big day tomorrow. Not looking to play either side, just watching FAZ price action, have my stop loss in place. So much for that dead cat bounce. JPM had been up large today, pulling back now to 34.09. It was at 32.99 early today. Might close there, who knows.

When AAPL started to crater, I just didn't have the guts to short it. I've never shorted anything directly, only through something like FAZ. But AAPL has already hit 546 recently, my Fibonacci retrace price (from 396 to the 644 high), and it was at 521 just two sessions ago. Strange times indeed.

Update 9:41 am FAZ reached higher, above 27.40, before pulling back some to 27.29. My stop loss target has been raised three times already. Maybe four.

Greece's former PM feels no obligation to toe the party line, the EU line, the ECB line, any line. His words today are fuel for the fire on financials like JPM, which is now sub 34 (33.93) and eroding.

BBC (video): Papandreou: Greek euro exit would 'destroy' economy (May 22)

Updated 9:52 am Out of FAZ at 27.33 (+0.48/share). Sticking to price discipline even though FAZ could easily open tomorrow above 27.50 or even 28.00 with the way the whole Greek bank run/Eurozone paranoia is shaking out. Just had to secure a decent profit before traders do the same in these final minutes before the bell.

Might try a very small position right before the bell to play tomorrow's scenario. Just don't see the Greeks coming to any kind of compromise with eurozone. It's too early for the new politicians.

Updated 12:32 pm In all, I changed my stop loss on FAZ eight times in that last trade. It was worth it each time.

Monday, May 21, 2012

Machines rule earth

7:44 am (Hawaii) I woke up early enough to get out of DGP at 47.74, taking a small loss (-0.46/share) on a weird open. I was totally worn out by this cold and sleep debt though, and crashed out until now. The indices are up and strangely enough, internet/social stocks started poorly and spiked after that roughly 30 minutes in. YELP, for example, sank to 16+ but rose to 20 or so.

FB is down 9% to 34.79, but it was at 33 earlier. AAPL is up 4.4$ to 553. It hit a recent low of 521+ on Friday and closed that day at 530. FAS is up 2.6% though JPM is down 2.7%.

Strange day, indeed. DGP has drifted, still red, now at 48.00. The G8 effect has been minimal, did little to help bulls or bears. gold bugs or bank haters.

Volume is weak. AAPL volume is at 15M+ shares; it was at 26M+ on Friday.

The machines are in control. Again. I suppose this is the one thing that was generally agreed upon at Camp David over the weekend. It feels like melt-up time again.

Friday, May 18, 2012

Weekend library & cinema (updated)

G8 gathers at Camp David this weekend

"We think the worst is over for the euro," said David Bloom, currency chief at HSBC. "The central banks will have to step in massively and that will be a soothing balm for the markets. The Fed is already leaving the door open for more QE. We could see quite a powerful rally."
Financial Times: Spain hit by rise in bad bank loans (May 18)
ABC News (Australia): Greece tops G8 agenda as markets tumble (May 18)
The World: Moody's downgrades Spanish banks (May 18)

Library of Barcelona

No fizzling out for FAZ (update 11:37 am)

9:02 am (Hawaii) Back from doing some work on the road. Between that and this cold, I've been feeling ragged and had to get sleep this morning. I missed the run for FAZ, which opened in the 27.50s/27.40s area and would've been a great re-entry point. (I sold yesterday at 27.54.) It ran to 28.51, then pulled back to the 28.00 area by the time I woke up. I almost put in a buy order, but the possibility of profit taking at the end of huge week — FAZ was 22.88 a week ago — had me willing to go do my work and be patient.

I re-entered after returning at 27.65. That was just a few minutes ago. It went to 27.76 (and I raised my stop loss), but now it seems profit taking is truly kicking in and my stop-loss price is about to kick in. If that happens, it's a quite small loss and I can live to fight another day. That's the biggest takeaway for this week. Stop-loss is necessary. Mandatory with a fast mover like FAZ (3x ETF). Mandatory with a pushover like GSVC. The big losses are rare but they knock me down and erase all of the small wins. Price discipline is key.

FB is now at 38.65, just over its IPO price, despite a lackluster market. That's being kind. This is a correction we're in. I'll be happy to get some FB at 25 or 30. They always pull back, the IPOs. Doesn't matter how great the stock and company are. Patience is key.

Update 9:20 am Stopped out of FAZ at 28.53 (-0.12/share). Tiny loss. As expected, traders holding from 27.50 this morning or all the way down to 22+ a week ago are cashing in for the weekend. FAZ has bottomed near term at the 28.40 area, now rising again. Should be interesting how the new buyers do against the heavy selling.

Update 9:36 am Back in FAZ at 28.66. Stop loss in place. Seems preposterous to be buying it when I sold yesterday more than a dollar lower, but that was a long time ago in the FAZ universe.

Update 9:39 am FB pulling back to 38.00, but there's a huge wall of buyers there with orders of 16K, 27K, 65K, 51K, 3360K (3.36 million shares?) protecting the price.

Update 9:47 am Stopped out of FAZ at 28.72 for a teeny gain. Thought about selling when it hit 28.92, but that was so quick. It went from that high to 28.80 in an instant. Let the trade ride instead of trying to change, adjust on the fly. That can be dangerous if a stop loss order is changed to a limit order while the price is sprinting either way.

Update 9:52 am It's hard to listen to gold. Spot gold is up big the past three days, an indication that the Fed/puppeteers are ready to unload trillions in new fiat currency. Damn austerity, they cry. So gold is tempering my desire to trade FAZ one more time before the closing bell.

Update 9:57 am Entered DGP at 48.10 before the closing bell. There will be some consensus out of Europe this weekend about stimulus, new bonds, whatever the hell the can imagine and create to soothe the overheated markets. I'm staying out of FAZ here. The only way I'd stay in is if I'd stayed long since 22.88 (a week ago).

Update 10:28 am DGP moving higher after hours, now 48.31 on thin volume. My position is small and it would take a serious move higher for me to consider selling. Weekend in Eurozone at the G8 meeting will be interesting. If there's some progress, FAS will run. If not, the weight of these "bank jogs" will take a toll.

Update 10:38 am I've probably underappreciated the effect of JPM on FAZ today. JPM hit an intraday low of 33.01 or so today, and the news from them continues to be horrible. Loss on that botched "hedge" trade is likely $5B, not $2B or $3B. I won't be surprised when it turns out to be $10B. They can't unwind it so they just keep betting against it on the other end.

So, even if/when Europe starts taking steps toward really dealing with the issues in Greece and Spain (and Portugal, France, etc), FAZ could still jump on problems at JPM. How much, don't know. But the kryptonite will be a new round of stimulus, and there's nothing that will help FAZ by then.

When that round of QE/whatever you want to call it is over, though ... gold and FAZ will spike like nobody's business.

Update 11:37 am FAZ coming down, like yesterday, in after hours trading. Now at 28.65. If it can pull back lower, say to 28.30, I might pull the trigger. Why hold DGP and FAZ? The onset of fiat currency printing alone fuels gold. The bank runs and political schemes to control ban runs, even with G8 strategies, are just a thumb in the dike. Banks are in deep, deep kim chi.

Thursday, May 17, 2012

Why I avoid overnight holds

11:37 pm (Hawaii) I try not to hold overnight in this murderous hellhole of a market. One reason is that you never know what the banksters will cook up next. In Spain, they're asking for short-selling bans.

MarketWatch: Europe stocks fall after Spain bank downgrades (May 18)
Other Spanish banks such as Banco Santander SA ES:SAN +2.18% STD -1.94% —dropped two notches by Moody’s—and BBVA SA ES:BBVA +2.79% BBVA -2.93% added 2% and 3% after a report in Spanish daily Cinco Dias said Spanish banks were going to ask regulator CNMV to reinstate a ban on short-selling of domestic banks. A spokeswoman for the regulator said there had been no changes.


8:28 pm (Hawaii) Not that I'll buy a single share of FB in the morning, but this is worth storing away for (possible) listening later. The Facebook conference call, May 16 (yesterday).

Facebook conference call

Update 11:40 pm My guess? First day, FB reaches a high of 69, closes at 51.

All things bankster (updated 12:30 am)

4:58 am (Hawaii) Even without making another trade, I find it fascinating, a bit scary and definitely entertaining that the common man in Greece — and now Spain — is taking his and her hard-earned money out of the banks there. The banks can lie to us forever, but how long can we keep believing them?

Update 6:11 am Back in FAZ 25.75. Wish I'd gotten back in at 25.25, but played it safe. Price consolidated for awhile (ie about an hour?) before it jumped at noon Eastern time. Now at 27.24. Put in a stop loss right away and have raised it twice. TZA (3x Small Cap Bear) is interesting too but I'm late on that).

Update 6:21 am Stopped out of FAZ at 27.05 (+0.30/share). Pros and cons of stop loss on a play that has done nothing but go up for the past week. (I had it at 22.88 just a few days ago, sold it too soon.) But FAZ will swing and swing and swing. That is a guarantee. Now at 26.98. Will re-enter at a lower price. Or not.

Update 7:23 am Back in FAZ at 26.82. Stop loss in place. A drop from here to the bell would be the end of a daily streak that takes the price higher from morning/mid-day to close. A lot of "tweezer" candles (as StockGuy22 would say) on the 3-min chart. Not promising.

Update 7:43 am FAZ at 27.00, raised my stop loss. CNBC reports that Fitch has downgraded Greece again.

Update 8:41 am FAZ hit 27.32, high for today. Raised my stop loss again. Debating whether to hold overnight, but price action will dictate before I get to decide, probably.

Update 9:08 am Almost got stopped out of FAZ again, but since it has exploded from the 27.18 area to 27.34 (again). It was tempting to get more shares but I'm comfortable with this position size. Can't make it all back in one swing.

Update 10:08 am Holding FAZ for now. It hovered around 27.70 near the close, then jumped to 27.80 at the bell and is above 27.90 after hours. No question the banksters are shorting themselves and will ride all financial bear ETFs until the money printing machines start humming again. Decided against adding more FAZ (or starting a position in TZA). Stop loss still in place after raising it several times. Giving it more room than usual. Still leery about holding this overnight.

Dow Jones -156 (-1.2%), Nasdaq -60 (-2.1%), S&P 500 -19.94 (-1.5%).

Is this bloodbath the market has "needed"? Or is there more to come? Facebook IPO has priced at 38.

SPY is still positive year to date. JPM closed at 34.05; it opened the new year at 34.06. How close is the market to getting stimulus? All the puppeteers are former bankers or ex-banking lobbyists, Obama needs bankster funding for his campaign, and it's an election year. It's a matter of when, not if, stimulus kicks in.

Update 12:30 pm Chickened out, sold FAZ after hours at 27.54 (+0.72/share). That's well off the high of the day (27.92) and I had plenty of opportunity to sell after the bell when it jumped above 27.80. But by then I started thinking seriously about holding overnight. But I can't do it. It's psychology. If I was making a big profit this year, this would feel like house money I'd be risking. But with the earlier loss today on GSVC, I feel obliged to make up for it. This sale of FAZ covers more than half of that loss. (Though if I'd sold at 27.90, that would've almost made up for the entire loss.)

After hours, the first plan was to hold the FAZ position and a stop loss order at 27.60 (good until cancelled). But as they moved the price into the 27.80s and 27.70s, I thought about selling right there instead. When it dropped to 27.60, that rang bells. Europe will probably be fugly in the morning with bad news and nothing good will come from JPMorgan. But after 11 down days out of 12 in the indices, plus Facebook's IPO, I prefer to stand aside and wait for the next opportunity than risk losing the profit.

Damn I'm a chickenshit!

Blood in the streets?

4:05 am (Hawaii) There's no blood in the streets. Yet. But one blogger/writer yesterday insinuated that the set up is there for an almost necessary bloodbath-type selloff for a couple of days. It was ChessNwine of who put it so frankly, and it makes sense. There are just no buyers for a number of reasons. Vacation. Fear. Lack of will.

There's blood in my account, no joke. I held GSVC overnight, it opened at 18.11 and I breathed a little sigh of relief, being down only about a quarter instead of 75 cents a share. Then it sold off for the next 30 minutes to sub 17. And it looked like the orders were after-hours style. In other words, lack of liquidity had the market maker manipulating price action. I got out at 16.80 for a major loss (-1.55/share) that adds up to more than 3% of my entire account.

That may sound insignificant to you, but I'm a small player and every dollar matters. I violated Rule No. 1: Don't lose money. In this instance, the only way I could've prevented this would've been by putting a stop-loss sell order in. I would've done it at 17.50 or so. But there's no question, this little stock is absolutely controlled and somebody cleared out all the stop losses to get the price back down. Another rule I broke: I didn't know that there had been a secondary on Friday (?) with shares at 16.25, which explains why the price tanked that day.

But price discipline, PRICE DISCIPLINE is always key no matter what events occur, and I had none this morning. It's a different time from the flash crash year; stop loss is almost necessary with a small stock in an extremely thin market. I hope this rant of mine helps someone reading this. Get your stop-loss in on a selloff day like this. Sure, the indices are down fractionally, but just about EVERYTHING is red. There are no buyers, and games will be played that take your stocks to shit.

FAZ rocketed above 27, so of course I regret not holding my shares overnight. The JPM news (losses now $3B) set the tone, along with the Greek bank run. FAZ was available at 26.20 or so early on today, but I was preoccupied with GSVC. They moved almost inversely, simultaneously. One plunged, the other surged.

Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Wednesday wind-down

2:39 pm (Hawaii) Not holding any FAZ, but the more I catch up on news, the more I wonder why I don't have at least a half-position. Chris Martenson's piece at Zero Hedge breaks it down best.

NY Times: Softening, Merkel says she is open to stimulus for Greece (May 16)
BBC (video): Greek Syriza leader Tsipras attacks EU and Merkel (May 16)
BBC: Watch deposit flight, not the eurocrats (May 16)
CBC (video): Greek bank run (May 16)
NY Times: Flight of Euros Accelerates, Adding to Greece's Worries (May 16)
Zero Hedge: This is the Greek ELA Borrowing Capacity (May 16)
Zero Hedge: What Happens if Greek Payments Stop: Goldman's Thought Experiement on 'The Day After' (May 16)
RT (video): Greek bank run starts (May 16)
Bloomberg: Greek Presiddent Told Banks Anxious as Deposits Pulled (May 15)
Zero Hedge: Has the Greek Bank Run Started? (May 15)
Economic Collapse: Bank runs in Greece will be followed by bank runs in other European nations

Funny how CNBC didn't show any footage of Greek bank runs today. Nada.

Windup Wednesday (updated 12:29 pm)

3:34 am (Hawaii) Feels like a pitcher on the mound, finally out of the dugout and throwing his first few pitches. I had bet against that hurler, thinking he'd get hit and hit deep by Europe. But the market is net positive this morning. Green everywhere. It's probably more of a dead cat bounce than anything, but it was enough to chase me out of my position in FAZ at 24.60, taking a loss of 0.70/share. That's a small loss, but it's still a loss and the losses are racking up.

Of course, soon as I sold, FAZ bounced right up to 24.82. So this rally isn't going straight up. Looks and feels more like a range bound move. Still holding GSVC, down a dime or so, not bad.

Update 5:09 am Still holding GSVC, which rallied off its low and is hovering at 18.25. FAZ exploded in the past 7 minutes from sub-25 to 25.27. In other words, had I held, I'd be almost break even.

Dow Jones nearly gave back all of its gains, was at +7 a minute ago. Are the algos buying up dips today? AAPL barely in the green. GRPN exploded to 13+ before pulling back to 12.65.

Update 5:23 am Bloomberg reporting that the ECB will not enact stimulus until June or July. That may explain the jump in FAZ and the selloff in the indices. Or not. Long FAZ at 25.10.

Update 7:10 am Reggie Middleton talked about insolvency in the banksters long ago and he's still right. This video is from around New Year's. He'll continue to be right until the next QE.


Update 7:46 am Indices biting the dust again. This has been far more predictable than I ever imagined. Wish I'd noticed the pattern sooner. Interesting piece on a Lehman/Greece comparison. But seeing AAPL plunge from 551 to 546 in the last several minutes is a stunner. I've anticipated AAPL doing a Fibonacci retrace to 546 and here it is. 

Update 8:16 am FAZ running above 25.60 as traders pile on the banksters. Below, the string of afternoon (Eastern time) upswings by FAZ.

Indices are fractionally down, AAPL still holding on at 546.

Update 9:20 am JPM was in the green much of the day, now struggling to stay above 35. That's rock bottom and it will probably dip a little more and remain stagnant for some time. AAPL at 541 ... spooky. This morning, when I sold FAZ (for a small loss), 70% of my Debt Spiral Dance (banksters) list was green. Now? It's 19% green, 76% red. Fugly, indeed.

FAZ his at 25.99. That's green for me, but the downturn in the indices means GSVC sold off in a fugly way, so I'm net down for the day so far.

Update 9:32 am Out of FAZ at 25.95, locked in profit of 0.85/share. There's plenty of upside from here, but 1) there's a huuuge load of shares waiting on the sell block at 25.98, 25.99, 26.00, and 2) this will likely sell into the close as traders rake in profits, and 3) I don't want to hold this overnight again.

This puts me just barely over break even for the day on closed trades. I still have GSVC sitting out there at 17.78, down from my buy yesterday at 18.35. Fugggly.

Update 12:29 pm All kinds of coverage of David Einhorn at the hedge fund conference in NYC. He doesn't say anything about HLF and it spikes 9%. He pans a few other stocks, they crash (get halted too). He raves about AAPL and it goes from 542 to 546 in the final minutes before the close.

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

Remorse in the rear view (updated)

8:09 am (Hawaii) It was premarket and I was in bed. The alarm went off, I check my sole position, FAZ. It was down in the 24.30s, not long after I'd gotten back in at 24.76 (the day before). I knew it was higher risk than usual since the financials (and JPM) had been beaten to a pulp for such a long time. The bounce had to come at some point, and this was it. I got out at 24.31 and took a small loss.

From there, FAZ eked its way higher, all the way to 24.87 several minutes ago. Now trading at 24.62. I haven't turned the TV on all day, but obviously, the JPMorgan shareholders meeting, the scuttle about possible investigation by Capitol Hill, etc are having an effect. JPM had rallied to 37.27, but is now back at 36.78. Is it a clean bounce or a dead cat bounce?

More annoying than frustrating, it's the trades I didn't make in GRPN and GSVC that I'll remember more. I got in GRPN yesterday at 13.30 and got out at 13.56.

Decided not to re-enter GRPN even though it seemed highly probable that the increase in Facebook IPO share price would have a ripple effect. That on top of the earnings beat and heavy short covering. GRPN opened with a huge gap up at 14.93, and has sold off since to 13.07. Still a 1.3% gain from yesterday's close, but all the after hours trading action has come and gone. This was 9.92 at the close on Friday, so there's going to be plenty of range trading.

GSVC and SVVC are pure beneficiaries of FB's bullish news. GSVC closed yesterday at 17.89, opened at 18.69 and has stayed up here. Now trading at 18.88, up 5.5%. SVVC is up 5.1%. This should've been easy money, but I was overly cautious.

Indices are barely green, but it wouldn't matter for the FB plays. AAPL is trying to stay above 560. No strength there. Today is a chance for bulls to reclaim the market. It's not happening.

9:17 am Back in FAZ at 24.96. Sure, it sucked selling in premarket way back at 24.31, but that's the past.  Moving on. AAPL cratered, as did much of the market, in the past 15 minutes or so, and FAZ began to take off. The Eurozone circus is too much and any big money that thought it would stay long today has pulled out and run for shelter. Can't blame 'em.

FAZ at 25.13, not assuming it stays here or goes higher. Ready to jump with my little parachute any time.

9:25 am Out of FAZ at 25.11, +0.15 per share, small gain. Now FAZ is 25.17. Timing...

10:08 am Traded FAZ for a quickie again, tiny loss. Would've been better off holding that buy at 24.96. I re-entered FAZ at 25.28, goes against my intuition, but today's closing momentum was decidedly negative thanks to Euro circus and continuing lack of confidence stateside. Also got back in GSVC at 18.35 after it sold off from 18.97 in the final hour.

Monday, May 14, 2012

Facebook roller coaster (updated)

12:07 pm (Hawaii) After the negativity from mainstream media last week on Facebook, two sources are saying FB will "increase its IPO price range to $35-40." One is CNNMoney's Maureen Farrell. See her tweet here.

That info was posted a few hours ago and I didn't see it. Otherwise I might have jumped back on board GSVC, which is at 18.20 after hours. (bid 17.93, ask 18.20.)

Here's MarketWatch saying basically the same thing about "large orders from retail investors." See the info via MW via IPO Botique

SVVC is practically unbuyable AH too: bid 28.87, ask 38.39. The move in GRPN plus the FB news is creating momentum, and the shorts are under fire.

Update 3:18 pm Kara Swisher reports that FB will debut at "$34 to $38."

Official pricing will be done on Thursday, she adds. 

GRPN fireworks show (updated 11:41 am)

10:19 am GRPN beat estimates and the stock spurted to from 11.76 (closing price) to 13.47 in 4 minutes. The Fibonacci retrace for that range is 12.86, and GRPN dropped to 12.72. Now it's at 13.16.

Too bad for me I broke price discipline and jumped in at 13.30 instead of waiting for the bounce (StockGuy22 is a master at that technique). The good thing is, momentum is on the stock's side for a change. This is strictly a short-term trade, definitely no gimmie since it's already up 33% for the day.

The effect of GRPN's beat is tough to measure right now. LNKD, SVVC and GSVC trade very lightly after hours, and the spread is enormous. But it's not a bad guess that they'll gap higher in the morning.

Update 10:53 am Here comes the pre-Fast Money move on GRPN, back to 13.30. Could pop a little more or fizzle depending on what the FM panel says. I expect a mixed bag from them. Nobody really likes the company's business model, but short-term momo is with the stock.

Update 11:07 am GRPN conference call underway, stock hit 13.44. Nearly sold half at 13.23 before the call. Hear it here. They've added more customers in Q1 than 2011 Q4, cut marketing costs big time. margins are 7% compared to a loss previously. They also have $1.2B in cash money. And 75% revenue growth in N. America. (info from Brian Bolan (@bbolan1)

GRPN now at 13.50. Looks like the shorts and pessimists have to acknowledge a better business model now.

Upate 11:12 am More info via Brian Bolan (@bbolan1) ... GRPN has added board members from AXP and Deloitte - deep financial and operating experience ... 30% of deals were done on mobile compared to 25% four months ago ... now does 1.5M purchases ... high online satisfaction survey, strong rollout of new merchant systems (Groupon rewards) - 2,500 merchants signed up ... more than 100K unique merchants in the quarter ... intl on a different technology platform, which is why the growth in NA was better ... first tech initiative underway ...

With 8.4% short interest, the covering is well underway, as well.

Update 11:41 am Got skittish and sold the position at 13.56 as it dipped (+0.26/share). Gave up a lot of paper profit after the run to 13.80, but I got a small profit on a quick trade, cannot complain about a + trade.

Always tempting to hold an earnings winner, but this run from 9.90 (yesterday's close) is massive and there will be fluctuations as traders take profits and new retail dives in. I'd rather play the swings than hold from 13.30. If GRPN is at 20 soon, then I'm wrong and it would be better to just buy and hold. But if it bounces between 13 and 15 all summer, it's a nice way to play the social trade.