FAZalanche

11:16 am (Hawaii) Much as I would enjoy holding AAPL from 372 to 520 (Goldman Sachs' new target), the ride will take a little bit longer than we would've imagined a year ago. AAPL, like gold, is a cash cow for hedge fund managers. When the market hits the fan, they always unload their winners to cover margin on their losers. So AAPL is cursed in that sense, but it still will never tank like a small-fry stock struggling to get above 5.00. That stuff belongs far away from any trading strategy.

As for FAZ, what a day. I slept through the first 3 hours of the session, having no position. But what an insane move to 81+. I knew it was coming, but this soon, not really. Then the selloff and another run to 79+. A lot of itchy trigger fingers out there with the market severely sold off and bankster stocks at "cheap" prices. My Debt Spiral list had FAZ as one of the few plays in green, while most everything else banksterish was 2-11% down. Then came the reversal in the final hour, and MS finished +11.5%. FAS up 9.7%. BAC, which was down to 5.24 in the last few hours, closed at 5.71.

So was Bernanke's chatter part of the game plan? If that's true, it was a clever way to keep BAC from falling below $5, where many hedge funds would not be able trade it at all. Bernanke had to do it. It's not like he can talk Obama into some kum-ba-ya soliloquy about the beauty and goodness of the forking banksters.

My FAZ updates below. Huge volume today on what is a negative candlestick. Still, on my daily chart, FAZ is still in range, marking its territory in the second megaphone after spending a couple of weeks in the lower megaphone. The pennants keep rising higher each time. Though I'd really like to get back in FAZ at 55 (or lower), price looks comfortable here above 66. It's all about headline risk, and there is zero good news from the Euro banksters ahead, no Fed to bail their butts out. SCGLY, NBG, STD, on and on. They're all stuck deep in kimchi and today's move was just more proof that the market is ready and able to short these banks to dust.

FAZ daily: huge volume today

FAZ daily: The moves to 81 (twice) don't deter price from a gradual gain

Since the run to 81 in early August, there have been eight instances (including today) of a long green/white candle followed the next day by a similar or longer red/black candle. In each short-term time span, FAZ went lower in the days after. Back in August, FAZ went from 81 to 61 in the same day, and bottomed at 54 later in the week.

Then came a move to 74, followed by a decline to 50. That was followed by a move to 67, then down to 52. In the past two weeks, FAZ went to 74 before dropping to 56. Is there reason to believe that today's drop from 81 to 66 won't continue? If 66 is the new floor, that's clearly a sign of strength in FAZ and bad news for the banksters, as if things weren't smelly enough.

No burying gold for long

photo: MSNBC

10:36 am (Hawaii) Gold continues to show a tendency to quietly draw attention from near and far, high and low. Spot is at 1567, slightly off its high of the day. Spot silver recovered some today after yesterday's butchery by CME mafia. It opened lower, giving friends of JP Morgan and the govt ample opportunity to collect more silver at discounted prices. Why offer your friends a gift at all-time highs (50+) when you can give them a price at a 30% discount (35)? Yeah, it's a theory, but until we straighten things out with our creditors, there's no quicker way to appease them than by keeping silver price low as possible without inciting deadly riots in every major American city.

It's one of the few mechanisms left to the puppet masters, so applaud them for their concerted, if short-sighted attempts. Thank them for lower physical prices.

The flight to gold helped miners, naturally. XG ran as high as 14.67 before pulling back a bit as daytraders cashed out. The presence of metal royalty like Eric Sprott in the stock only solidifies the foundation. Getting out of AGQ yesterday and holding XG didn't take much thought. They — the puppeteers — will bitch slap silver in a way that they would never do to gold for very long.

XG up 3.3% (14.50 afterhours). DGP up 1.5% to 50.79. I've held this through some minor ups and downs. No plans to sell in the near term.

After rallying to the plus side, the indices finished down. DJ -58.88 (-0.5%), Nas -20.71 (-0.7%), S&P -5.85 (-0.4%).

AAPL finished down by a fraction after being up most of the day. AMZN, also down fractionally. BIDU down 2.3% after a nice run. Also down just by a hair, NFLX (290.50).

As for the banksters: NBG (+2.5%), BBVA (+0.8%) were up. IRE (-3.8%), C (-1.8%), BAC (-1.3%), GS (-1.2%). FAZ swung from a big early gain down into the red before finishing at 46.80 (+0.8%). Moody's downgrade Ireland govt bonds today. Story in the NY Times.

This is the roller coaster of trading in — for or against — bank stocks. Anything can alter direction. I would love to be a zillionaire and bet on FAZ big time, not worry about a paper loss for a day or two. I don't have that luxury, so I sit here and whine about it on a blog. Though Obama is long treasurys, I still wouldn't bet on the banksters with my own money. There is no long-term solution to the currency/inflation crisis. Just a bunch of stop-gap tactics.

I wish I still had my shares of FAZ at 43.33. End whine.

Greecian formula?

10:17 am (Hawaii) Major momentum swings today. Jobs report bad. Greece austerity good. Looking over several charts from AAPL to NBG to AG, could it be remotely possible that this bullish vibe — increased volume, heavy momentum from lows to highs by the close — is the real deal? I would find that preposterous to conceive. This is late June, QE2 is almost done and the Fed is in no rush to usher in QE3. In fact, the Fed seems content to see the market tank, even crash, to justify any further fiat currency destruction, i.e. printing trillions more US Dollars.

Yet there are massive numbers in some of these equities/etfs. Are they spurred by high-frequency trading? Probably, but some of those are direct from the hedge funds, and moves on big volume don't lie in the near term. Usually.

I got out of FAZ despite my long-term pessimism about the debt crisis. I am not going to wait around and get cut to pieces by market momentum to the downside. But I am willing to re-enter FAZ once the financials' true colors show up vivid and bright again. Like maybe tomorrow morning. If Spain and Portugal opt for more austere routes, like Greece, that does NOT help US banksters one bit. So it can be possible for NBG to rocket higher on austerity measures while financials stateside swallow another plate of poison.

I looked hard at NBG before the close and had an order at 1.41, but never got it filled. Bad timing. Or good, depending on how the market follows through tomorrow. It could easily pull back into the 1.30s after today's robust gain. A tiny position would be interesting, but a fast move up isn't in the cards. I can see NBG at 2.00 in a few months, but the constant downturns of other banks will keep it leashed. A move to 2.50 or higher could happen within a year. A double is never a bad thing.





Apple held high ground even when the market was still down big. AAPL closed is at 330.20 after hours (+2.3%). Today's candlestick is not exactly bullish, but it is not bearish either.

Baidu has been bullish, as well, with good news earlier in the week. It wasn't long ago that BIDU split 3-for-1 and was sitting at 70. If there's a "safe" play in China, this would be one. Big Brother protects its little brothers.

LULU and other stocks look bullish, but in this bizarro market, LULU could easily lose its recent gains. That small float cuts both ways.

Silver was a roller coaster ride today. Silver Wheaton, like AAPL, showed strength when it was a sea of red. Net-net, SLW had slightly more volume and is up 1% to 33.13 after hours.

First Majestic (AG) also had a positive day (+0.8%) despite the pummeling on silver. Like Silver Wheaton, First Majestic's fundamental numbers are impressive, particularly in profit margin. I think that gets tampered with as energy prices fluctuate, but AG is still a solid miner.

I still like EXK (8.49 after hours), which was down nearly 1% but is still among the stronger plays this week among silver miners. 7.50 is support, and some shrewd traders got in at about 7.60 recently for this elevator ride.










AGQ, GPL, PAAS, SLV for your viewing.

 

 

ZSL was a solid play on the short side, but was well off its intraday high (19.11). ZSL is at 18.49 (+6.4%) after hours.

If the CME mafia continue to pull strings on silver, a little ZSL would make good protection.

DGP (double gold bull) looked horrible on the chart, big gap down on increased volume. If the puppet masters knock gold down, as I expect, to further their argument in favor of QE3, so be it. They will not and cannot hold gold down for long, though. Eventually, the debt crisis will overwhelm all factors, and the US will have to take severe action one way or another. Every way benefits real money: gold and silver. So I will hold my little position in DGP and continue to accumulate hard assets.

Rangold (GOLD) was a rarity today, a gold play that finished green (80.03, +0.5% after hours). I don't trade it, know little about it.

There were a few gold plays that showed some strength, like NGD.

GLD was GLD.

I still like Extorre Gold Mines (XG), even with its huge run in the past several months. They are great marketers and have been successful as of late with their finds in Argentina.










DZZ is one way to play a downturn in gold. GLL is another way (+3.7% today). On the whole, however, I don't plan to short gold. If I bet against anything, it would be the financials or silver, maybe the Nas (QID). I've never played QID, and unless there's a complete breakdown, I won't touch it. But the Nas does fall apart in a big way from time to time, so QID is worth keeping an eye on.

 

I'm mostly cash, same as the last several months. Small, but growing pile of physical metals.

Bizarro world

9:07 am (Hawaii) Just saw FAZ sell off like mad from 51.00 to 49.73 in a few minutes, now dropping again after a brief rally. FAZ at 49.60 on no news. Simultaneously, NBG (National Bank of Greece) ran from 1.28 to 1.37, going from the worst on my bank list (Death Spiral) to the top, the only banksters in green today. Market is rallying; Dow is only -106 now.

Too late to get out of FAZ right now, but as the stochastics and MACD improve, I might get out then. Still up a little bit from yesterday. Or I could let it ride for a few days or weeks as the entire Euro drama unfolds from Greece to Spain and Portugal to France ...

Precious metals had a nice little spike during that bit of volatility, but I'm not assuming that will continue much longer.

9:15 am (Hawaii) CNBC just broke the austerity plan agreement in Greece. The market reacted before the news was out on TV. As usual. I sold my little FAZ position at $1.07 profit. Not as good as it would've been 30 minutes ago at 51. That would've been a $2.72 profit. I did think about selling on that first huge move (1-minute chart) downward, but opted to wait. If I'd had a large position, that would've been time to sell at least half and book the profit.

FAZ showing strength even with the news, now back up to 49.50. Should be an interesting close. As for DGP, it's showing some boost, too, now back to 47.97. Whatever I "lost" in FAZ as it declined, I gained some in DGP (on paper).

Reuters: Greece seals deal with EU, IMF on austerity plan: sources (June 23 2011)

Thesis and substance

6:41 am (Hawaii) It helps tremendously to back up a thesis with some commitment, if just a partial position. I seem to lack the cajones to do this, apparently. FAZ is one of the preferred vehicles of choice in this June swoon. Come on, didn't you think most traders would run from the possibility of no QE3? I did. But I bought FAZ at near a recent high, then sold yesterday at a loss. The one day in the past week it drops, and I sell. (Last week, I bought at 46.40 and sold at a small loss, too.)

So much for thesis. Finnies? GS (-0.3%), BAC (-1.5%), JPM (-1.7%), C (-1.8%), NBG (-2.8%), STD (-3.3%), IRE (-6.2%). They'll slide and more banks will close, but it's all just a path to consolidation. What the big money lacks in breadth and depth, it will hold even more in the way of pure power. If things get to that dire scenario — hyperinflation, no cash in the ATMs, etc. — it'll still be important to be self-sufficient. But even if things don't get extreme, I still don't trust them banksters. They could jack up service fees far beyond what they do today, always to the brink of pissing the public off, but never too far. They need to keep us borderline solvent, the better to bleed us to death over time. That's why I'm figuring out how much actual fiat, physical metal, food and ammo to have on hand before things get to that point. It's a necessity I don't like.

I just woke up to find FAZ at 51.63, which would've been a paper profit of about $475 or so. Pretty decent. But since I lack commitment in my thesis, it's just chatter. 21% of my Metals list is green. 79% red. This was expected. Yesterday's dead-cat bounce came on horribly low volume. Today's volume is stronger; we're only halfway through and most stocks/etfs are close or above yesterday's totals.

MCP, which is up 2.8%, has strong volume today. XG is up 3.2%. But most of the green gainers on the Metals list are bear plays. ZSL (+5.1%), DUST (+2.9%), FSG (+2.1%), DZZ (+1.4%).

Still 90% cash with a small position in DGP. If Spot Gold (1535) and Silver (36.66) can't regain today's smallish decline, I'll look to add physical below 1520 and 34. Summer and gold have not been a good combination for the past two years, but conditions are exacerbated this time. Picking my spots.

So much for Mutual Fund Monday

Dow Jones 10,190.89 -20.18 -0.20%
NASDAQ 2,243.96 +0.36 +0.02%
S&P 500 1,089.63 -1.97 -0.18%

Back from some work, catching up with today's flop-a-roo action. Bull stampede out the exits. How lame.

I once was a diehard Apple fiend. Even without ownership of an iPod or iPhone, I was and still am a lover of Apple products. Hell yeah!

But ask me if I'd trade AAPL here and I'll tell you, hell no. Today was a prime example. AAPL was up to 258 early and traded down to 254.01 after hours. I'm watching my recorded Fast Money Halftime and they're all bullish about the morning move. Can't blame 'em; Dow was up big. NASDAQ was up bigger on Apple's push.

Things closed badly. Life on thin ice goes that way most times.

METALS
FCX barely held its gain, finishing at 65.26 (+0.51%) while FXI dipped a bit (40.11 -0.40%) and X was down 0.58% to 44.56. SLV flat (+0.06%) at 17.86. This sector was due for a time out, but any time rally leaders hit a pit stop, it's wise to be cautious that it doesn't turn into a complete stall-out.

EURO MADNESS
FXE closed up at 121.89 (+1.09%), a nice gain, but off its intraday high (122.61). UUP down almost 1% to 28.43.

SAFE PLAYS
GLD down fractionally (-0.34%) to 119.60 and TLT down 0.51% to 96.91.

ENERGY
USO up by a hair (+0.29%) to 34.33 and inverse ETN SCO down a skosh (-0.07%) to 14.93. Interesting since BP got chomped by 9.71% down to 30.67. Just when it seemed BP got a nice technical bounce, it may have turned into more of a lower high than a climb back to the mid-30s. BP dropping to the mid-20s?

Natural Gas simply seems so much palatable at this point. My weekly update on the 40 natty gassers on my list was very informative, but I still didn't enter a position in any of them, not even my five favorites. Today's action was interesting. Little more than an hour before the close, 32 of the 40 were in the green. By the bell, only 17 were green and a handful of those were basically break-evens.

MMR continued its astounding rise since Obama's clean energy speech 11 days ago. MMR rose 6.18% today and is now up 13.51% to 11.68 since Obama's declaration. WPRT remained hot, picking up 5.21% to 18.99 and is now up a whopping 29.24% since Obama. This is one of my five faves, being a pure play with a solid balance sheet. It's not the finest of fundamentals, though, so some drastic profit-taking could hit the share price any time. Come on, 29% in less than two weeks ... are you going to be greedy? You can always re-enter after it sells off. I'd sell half and trade that amount for now, and let the rest ride. That's just me.

UNG, the notorious U.N.G., was up 4.65% today to 8.61. Quite nice considering it lagged while the entire sector caught fire last week. Clearly a buy below 8.00 and a sell above 8.50. PETD was up 4.04% to 25.98 and is now up 24.72% since Obama. Also up nicely was PQ, +2.70% to 7.60. PQ now up 22.19% since Obama.

The natty gassers I really like — CLNE (16.99 +0.83%), HGT (21.45 -1.7%), PSE (24.96 -0.64%) and SWN (43.54 -0.84%) — were middling at best today. I'd rather stick with these issues, which have solid balance sheets and little to no debt, than risk the acidic atmosphere of so-so natty gassers that are trading mostly on daytrader momentum (low floats).

FINANCIALS
FAS down 1.43% to 22.49. FAZ up 1.26% to 15.30.

GS dropped 1.62% to 133.44. It's just ugly down there. When financial uber-bull Dick Bove adjusted his estimates lower for GS last week, that was as rock-bottom as it gets. Or does it get worse? C broke even today (3.88), while Euro banks were varied. IRE (4.05 +0.25%), NBG (2.43 +2.53%) and STD (10.45, -0.95%) doing their usual quirky moves. STD has been more steady, bouncing out of the 9-10 range every time. Spain has major unemployment issues, but as a whole seems far more sane than Greece.

Thin ice. Please avoid.

I'm staying 100% cash. Didn't touch VXX after hours. That means it'll probably pop in the AM. Whatever. Take caution. This market is icy hot. Or hot icy. I'll get my sleep, trail at a safe distance and be selective.

Hump Day Candles

[Note, 10:16 pm Hawaii time: Adds candlestick analysis by American Bulls on daily (black) charts.]

2-day charts (5-minute bars)

Apple (AAPL 263.95 +3.12 +1.20%)

Bear trap to close Tuesday ... bull trap to close Wednesday?

FAS (24.42 +1.82 +8.06%)

I don't trust the financials, but watch closely. US fins still coupled with Euro banks.

FAZ (14.60 -1.32 -8.29%)

SCO (15.56 -1.84 -3.77%)

Inverse oil ETN leveling out as BP finds its footing

Daily charts from AAPL to VXX

American Bulls: AAPL was a buy at 259 on Tuesday; currently a "hold"

American Bulls: BIDU is a "buy-if"

American Bulls: BP is a "wait"

American Bulls: C was a buy on May 21 (3.63) and remains a "hold"

American Bulls: DNDN remains a "wait"

American Bulls: FAS remains a "wait"

American Bulls: FAZ was a buy on June 1 (15.43) and remains a "hold"

American Bulls: FXE is a "wait"

American Bulls: GLD was a buy on May 25 (117.16) and is now a "sell-if"

American Bulls: GOOG was a buy on May 27 (484.86) and remains a "hold"

American Bulls: GS remains a "wait"

American Bulls: IMAX remains a "wait"

American Bulls: IRE was a "buy confirmed" today at 4.92

American Bulls: JMBA is a "buy-if"

American Bulls: NBG remains a "wait"

American Bulls: NFLX was a buy on May 25 (101.62) and remains a "wait"

American Bulls: QQQQ remains a "wait"

American Bulls: SLV remains a wait

American Bulls: SPY is a "buy-if"

American Bulls: STD was a "buy confirmed" today at 9.84

American Bulls: TLT was a buy on May 19 (95.98) and remains a hold

American Bulls: TYH is a "buy-if"

American Bulls: USO remains a "wait"

American Bulls: UUP remains a "wait"

American Bulls: VXX was a buy on May 6 (24.01) and is now a "sell-if"

American Bulls: X is a "buy-if"