Friday, September 30, 2011

Abstain? (updated 120 pm HST)

8:32 am (Hawaii) I have no problem sitting out for hours, days, weeks at a time. The past year has been erratic to say the least. It takes conviction to trade or invest in this market. To trade well of course, it takes more than belief and empirical data. I wondered yesterday whether the pullback in FAZ to 60 was a discount or a trend to come. I looked up the 2-year chart and found that FAZ meandered for a week back around May 9, 2010, when the first Greek bailout was approved. After that, price exploded in FAZ, not because of Greece necessarily, but external, regional blowups related to Euro debt crisis, political cowardice. When you get down to it, nobody willingly accepts a lower standard of living. Of course there will be anger and conflict and violence in the streets.

Bankster stocks, which exploded yesterday on bailout approval from German politicians, are down from 2.5% to 9.3% today. Banks are being targeted more and more, fairly or unfairly, as the culprits behind this vice-tightening threat. So I lacked conviction this week when I traded four round trips (Wednesday) on an up day (from 60+ to 59+ to 65+) and didn't make a profit. I lacked belief when I held FAZ from 63.60 (Wednesday) to 65+ to 59+ before selling at 62+. This is something that I now realized has more to do with the mechanics of my trading process than actual thesis.

Today, I still have very, very little doubt that the banksters will suffer as the people have suffered. They can put it all off over and over, but the flames below get higher and higher. I went long FAZ at 64.00 and 64.40 today, used a stop sell order to manage my process, got stopped out with a tiny loss. I don't like using stops normally, but with FAZ, it's a necessity for me. The Dow is down 134 points (-1.2%) with 75 minutes left in the session.

The weekend. Few will go long. More will go short. I am undecided.

Update 9:33 am Little boxes. I wonder what Nicholas Darvas would do with FAZ. Hell, what would he think of FAZ? The man could trade from 6,000 miles away in an era long before the internet just on numbers. Boxes. A bouncing price within a box that breaks down or breaks out. If I apply a version of this theory to FAZ, today's trading can be "contained" in a sense. It helps some. I don't normally like buying on breakouts like I did before, just a sign of the times, the difference between a bull market and a bear market. FAZ clearly is used by the big algos to take out stop sell orders down. That's how they make the bulk of their money, my guess, regardless of how flat the market may be.

I just re-entered at 64.60 based on a breakout and massive volume. The most recent intraday box I see was at 63.80 to 64.40. But I didn't draw this out until after my earlier trades.

FAZ intraday wackiness in little boxes.
A late-day run to 66+ followed.

Update 9:52 am Stopped myself out at 63.87, fished out by the algos, I know I know. But I re-entered at 64.50 and it's been parabolic since. FAZ high today is 65.82 with 7 minutes to close. Now 65.31. Tempted to get out here. If I hold over the weekend, I'd be slightly comfortable. If this trend continues, I can add more on Monday. It's a long 2 1/2 days...

Update 12:07 pm The last time FAZ propelled to this area (65-66) I held and saw it dip the next morning. It gets tempting to hold a position for the longer term (anything longer than 2 days) and another position strictly for intraday trades. Yesterday and today prove it might be better to be two-pronged. FAZ went from 60 to 59 to 65 to 60 yesterday. This morning, it gapped up to 63, dropped to 62 and went to 66+ before the close. Now at 65.85 after hours.

So, those "cheap" shares I got back at 56 (and sold at 61), I could've held. And kept holding. And trade all the noise in between. But in noise trades would be disciplined with little exception. Sure as FAZ can close at 65, it can open at 60 the next morning. Or close at 60 and open at 65. Simpleton thinking might work best.

FAZ daily: Each pennant is followed by big upside move, big downside move.
Net-net: Higher.

I do believe: FAZ can return to 55, 50 and 40; FAZ will return to 73 and 81; FAZ will eventually hit 100.

Update 12:18 pm Didn't like the FOUR PENNANT look, though it supports a thesis of higher-then-lower post-pennant. Here's my previous THREE PENNANT look. Not as sexy. Ups and downs follow closing pennants. So what. FAZ is hyperactive and it's basically the same difference. If you think banksters are eventually going to face the grim reaper, your position will win. Me? I'd like to get discount shares, even if I have to sell for a small loss soon.

FAZ daily with only 3 pennants.
Third pennant closing, big move ahead? 
Maybe we consolidate here for a few more days.

Update 1:11 pm Out of FAZ at 66.00, made $1.50/share. Not bad for a late-day trade, but overall I was down a teeny bit today. I'd love to have a longer-term position in FAZ, but I want that entry point to be closer to 60, ideally 55 or 50. It's more see-saw action next week, might get my wish. For now, keeping my eyes on gold (DGP), silver (AGQ), AAPL and FAZ. If we get mixed news every day next week, I might start trading FAS and FAZ, flip-flop between each based on what I see in my little boxes.

Thursday, September 29, 2011

Thursday cinema & library

Brad Pitt, Jonah Hill in Moneyball

A lot of reading and viewing to catch up on. Missed out on a lot of good stuff yesterday, posting it all with today's goodies.

Below is FAZ daily chart over 2 years. The small box at bottom left is the week of May 9, 2010. Note the meltdown leading into that month, then the runup until the bailout was approved. FAZ sold off, naturally, but stayed in a tight range for about a week before exploding again as the riots in MENA escalated. The initial support during that time was roughly 72, the same level that the recent highs were at in the past few weeks.

The difference this time around is that chaos and riots aren't expected to be as numerous across the continents. Maybe, just maybe this time FAZ skips the wild range of the large box and goes into a gradual decline as it did in Fall of 2010 through Spring of 2011. I don't imagine it would be that long of a time span because we not only have pending defaults of entire nations, but exploding debt. Plus, the new bailout is a stop-gap, a band-aid, not a solution, not much different from the first bailout.

FAZ 2-year chart
Price is just about the same with today's official approval by
Germany (for a Greek bailout) as it was on May 9, 2010,
when Greece received approval for its first bailout.

With Euroland going the route of Fed-flavored death by toxic debt, that should be bullish for gold and silver. The question about sovereign debt and banksters and dependence on fiat printing has one fundamental answer: it ends in catastrophe, revolution and/or compete overhaul. It's not a matter of if, but when.

Update 3:37 pm Won't be long now until we see whether FAZ at 60 was a discount or just regular price. 66 is the high end of this megaphone pattern. 54 is the low end. I hesitated before buying at 65 yesterday (among other prices), so why would I avoid buying at 60? Human psychology. FAZ could go lower just on momentum. When it turns around, I'll be watching and ready. Next time I'm holding FAZ, I'm going to much much, much quicker, in and out. Holding it is like holding lit dynamite sometimes.

(new) SGS: TA on paper silver chart (Sept 29)
Reggie Middleton: Foolish talk of German bailouts once again (Sept 29)
> "This was the problem that I had with Paulson's original TARP idea. It just won't work because it doesn't solve the problem. Instead it attempts to conceal the problem."

Dan Norcini: Gold market has calmed down a bit (Sept 29)
Le Fly: Insane S&P losing streak (Sept 29)
Zero Hedge: The 'muddle through' has failed: BCG says only painful ways out (Sept 29)
Le Fly: Crazy fucking trading robots (Sept 29)
Zero Hedge: Market snapshot: What a day! (Sept 29)
Woodshedders: Russell 2K intraday: Probing the 200-day lows (Sept 29)
Le Fly: A final warning of sorts (Sept 29)
Le Fly: Fuck this shit (Sept 29)
> "We're going under 1,000 of the S&P and there is nothing you or your stupid fucking friends can do about it."
Le Fly: Run for the hills (Sept 29)
Le Fly: Extreme weakness, just beneath the surface (Sept 29)
Cain Thaler: Greece will still default (Sept 29)
Zero Hedge: Boycott Bank of America, which is about to institute $5 debit card usage fee (Sept 29)
Jake Gint: Bloody exhausted (Sept 29)
SGS: Paging Blythe (Sept 29)
Scott Bleier: My version of copper chart-art... (Sept 28)
Rajun Cajun: Real estate next to go (Sept 28)
SGS: No title needed. Yawn. (Sept 28)

(new) Keiser Report: Alessio Rastani telling truth (Sept 29)
(new) endlessmountain: Nine reasons Dow crashes in Oct (Sept 29)
streetmoney21: It's not over playa - part 2 (Sept 28)
BrotherJohnF: Silver Update - Saving silver (Sept 28)

Peter Schiff Show (Sept 29)
Turd Ferguson: Podcast #3, guest Bill Murphy (Sept 28)


Metal bling

Greek party mode

10:12 am (Hawaii) Regular watch list 49% up, 50% down, 1% neutral. Apple -1.5% to 390+. Former high flyers are down. YOKU -18.3%. NFLX -11.2%. BIDU -9.2%. SINA -9.2%. Top gainers in the Regular list: FAS +7.6%, AGQ +7%, UCO +4.6%, PSLV +4.2%, BBEP +4%, C +3.8%, GNK 3.6%, SLV +3.4%, X +2.8%, SWY +2.8%, GE +2.6%.

US Steel? This smells like a dead cat bounce.

FAZ at 60.37 afterhours, touching the lower line of its near-term pennant. Still right about in the center of its megaphone longer term. 

FAZ (daily) filling the near-term pennant, soon to go ... where? 

The Debt Spiral list was all green except for FAZ: SCGLY +9.8%, FAS +7.4%, MS +6.6%, DB +6.5%, STD +6.3%, BBVA +6%, RBS +4.8%, IRE +4.8%, C +3.9%, BAC +3.7%, GS +3.7%, JPM +3%, HBC +2.5%, NBG +1.5%, AIG +0.8%. All of Euroland is ecstatic that the party isn't over yet. 

Was this actually the day to go long financials? Could be in the near term. But I think this is a champagne, pop-the-cork moment for finnies. Temporary. A lot of getting drunk, patting backs and double kiss on the cheek hellos. It won't last. Real money has to come from somewhere real, and printing fake money (fiat) isn't going to cut it for much longer. Real production? Not in the US or Euroland. The puppeteers sent jobs elsewhere. 

Today's German parliament vote was a measure to delay the inevitable. Will the people of Germany vote out these politicians who have put the people's savings on the chopping block? Is it their duty to save dysfunctional neighbors? 

FAZ now at 59.94 (10:36 am HST), running with momentum to the downside, opposite of yesterday's afterhours trading. I know what I did wrong yesterday (not selling most/all of the position into strength above 65). I know what I did wrong today (not selling most/all of the position into strength above 65). Taking the belief and logic, not just emotion, out of trading is difficult. Boil it down to basic elements, and it's about price. Sell above 65, buy below 60. Or wait for a bargain at 55 or lower.

New mantra: Less chatter, more price discipline. 

Set your bets and go to sleep? (updated 1010 am HST)

8:16 am (Hawaii) Not so long ago I got a handful of FAZ at 60.53. Not the optimum price like 55 or 53, but it suited me okay. That was at the end of Tuesday. Today, right now, FAZ is at 64.92. Had I done a Rip Van Winkle, slept through all this political economic hoohaa, I'd wake up and be pleasantly surprised with a gain of more than 4 bucks a share. Instead, I sawed away and gave away what would've been a profit yesterday. Only in the past hour am I back to break-even on the latest position.

For now, predators are feasting on imbeciles, and the carnage is just beginning. Nothing's free and if you can't protect it, you get eaten. Can't help that it's just a little funny to watch sometimes.

Update 9:02 am Did anyone see that move in the minutes before the final hour began. That was 8:55 to 9:00 here. Dow rallied as if there was going to be some mad upswing, got up to +13. Yesterday, there was a distinct move at the top of the hour. Today, 9:00 arrived and the Dow started tanking. It's 9:04 am now and the Dow is now -38. I have no idea where it finishes in 56 minutes. But that looked like a trap for the traders who might be playing a move right at that 9:00 tick.

Update 9:12 am FAZ went from 64 to 65 in a hurry, now 65.36. I'm now in the living room, TV is on (mute) and I'm watching the daily chart only. As long as I line it up with my megaphone and pennant patterns, I'm not switching over to the 1-minute. Otherwise I'd have to draw it all over again. That's one odd way of implementing self-discipline.

As I type, a major battle between bulls and bears is in place. Le Fly is right, despite the relatively up or flat numbers today, so many stocks have been forked that it looks very much like an avalanche is not far away. In the past few minutes, the Dow has gone from about -35 to +15 or so, then back to -35. Wild swings and battles in the trenches.

Update 9:37 am How horrendo. I watched as FAZ rallied to 65.41 and I was in the green by 1.30 or so. Then the indices rallied and FAZ went down, down, down. I had to get out or get piled over in an avalanche due to the nature of 3x short ETFs. If the algos go bullish, get out of the way. I exited the position at 62.20 62.26. FAZ is now at 61.86. It went from a winning trade to a loser in what felt like seconds. If this was going on at mid-day, it's a different decision. In this final 30 minutes, I can't take that kind of chance, the odds stacked against me. Should've sold most or all of the position above 65. Absolutely unpredictable.

The only good thing is that FAZ rallied off today's low, saving me $3/share. Scaling out is going to be a necessity from now out. The market may be wrong. Being right doesn't mean making a profit.

Update 9:55 am It's less about the hows and whys. It's about price. The ancient adage, "Buy low, sell high." It made no sense for the market to rally in the last 30 minutes after going back and forth for hours. If anything, the algo machines sensed that peon traders (me) were leaning one way, and the machines went the other way, raking in profits all the way up. I'm not saying the German vote in favor of a Greek bailout wasn't going to boost the market. But for the market to go from indecisive to straight-up-and-away without any catalyst is just the new norm. 

FAZ is at 60.37 in afterhours trading. From here, does the market go blindly into melt-up mode for the near term? I tend to think so. That'll lead to higher gold and silver price, which I like.

FAZ at 65 was a very so-so entry point. FAZ at 60 a little better. At 55, 50, 45, far better. It's probably coming. And as Greece and other Euro party states get closer to default in the coming months, FAZ will return to 65, 73, 81. 100 will come, too. Just not today. 

Tomorrow? Will Sept 30 be a one-day free-for-all window-dressing blastoff? Maybe. 

Not there, not close (updated 745 am HST)

Could've used one today

7:00 am (Hawaii) It's not necessarily the speed nor the size. Playing in this headline-risk market isn't Russian roulette. It's still about risk management. Normally, I avoid it, step to the side, get lots of sleep. This time, not so wise. Work has been busy and so has the market. Yesterday, I was up through the session, losing small again and again until the final hour. But instead of selling most or all of my position in FAZ, I was stuck. My online broker didn't automatically cancel my order for more than 20 minutes after the bell. Then I committed the sin of not selling in this Edward Scissorhands market: I had more than 2 hours to sell and didn't do it even as FAZ climbed back above 65.00 in the final minutes of afterhours trading.

I went to work after that, didn't get home until late night. Wired a little, I stayed up until 30 minutes before today's premarket. Then I finally crashed. When I should sleep through it all, I'm awake. When I need to be awake, I crash. I set my alarm, but I couldn't stay up even then. So I woke up a few minutes ago. It's no shocker that Germany voted to support another Greek bailout, and with that, the market is up. Dow Jones is +140, though from what I see the indices are off their highs.

FAZ was above 63 when premarket opened. I could've sold then a slightly below break-even. But I was sound asleep. Risk management. Sleep and lack of it is part of the big equation. It dipped below 60 but rose and is now at 61.68. Long way from 65+, but there I am with a sizable position (by my standards). How did it happen? Why didn't I sell? It's simple if I'm totally honest: greed. Lack of discipline. Arrogance? Overconfidence. Whatever. It comes down to risk management. I should've sold at 65+.

Now that's history. FAZ is back to where it was yesterday morning. It's still trading in its range. Down almost 6%, but leveled off. It's stunning to see AAPL down slightly while the market is up. Nasdaq is the exception, down fractionally. The algo machines could've taken this a lot higher. I'll probably lighten up on this losing position even though logic dictates that it will go higher over time.

Metals are doing better today. AGQ dipped to 99 yesterday but is at 110+ now. DGP is up to 52.33. Still not touching either. No paper gold or silver trading for weeks. This morning would've been the right time for a quick trade.

At mid-61, I'm down roughly $2.65/share on FAZ. That's around -2.65 from my cost basis, not yesterday's price at 65+. At mid-61, is FAZ a buy or sell here? The answers are different depending on a trader's time frame. Long term, it's a buy. Near term, I'm surprised after today's German parliament vote that it isn't at 55 or 50.

Update 7:42 am I step outside for a few minutes and what happens? The Dow is down to +66, the Nas is down 1.3% and FAZ is back above 63. Contagion. Euro disarray is one thing, but is China all of a sudden the pulldown factor that was sitting in the shadows through all this? China still has billions of consumers, so I'm not buying any propaganda. Slowdown, yes. Euroconomy dives, China manufacturing slows down. But there's more to it in the US market. Hedge funds are taking knockout punches to the groin, liquidating out of necessity.

It's very interesting and educational to see what Le Fly has to say all the time, but never more so than these past few days. He spells it it out without discretion. There is no frosting on the cake. That's why mainstream info can only go so far. They'd never publish with the candor of Le Fly.

Update 8:04 am I am almost numb to my position in FAZ, just freaking amazed at the fall in the indices. I happen to read this through the translation of FAZanese. FAZ went from 61.50ish to 64.07 in 16 minutes. Then came a 50% (or so) retrace of that gain to 62.88, where the sharks jumped in an devoured the carcass once again. It's on a hyperbolic rise above 64 now. Dow is +25, Nas is -47 (-1.9%) and S&P is holding it all off somewhat, -3.9 (-0.3%). Le Fly maintains that S&P 500 is going to 1,000. It's currently 1,147.

Yep I'm glad to be nearly back at break-even on this trade. Going higher in FAZ is not a surprise. It's the speed that is breathtaking. I'm not going to add or subtract from my position yet.

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Wednesday cinema & library

Jonah Hill as Peter Brand, the technician behind Moneyball

2:44 pm (Hawaii) Hardly a safe harbor.

AGQ 99.62, -21.61, -17.8%
DGP 51.99, -2.52, -4.6%
ZSL 17.71, +2.78, +18.6%
DZZ 5.31, +0.16, +3.1%
FAZ 65.37, +4.93, +8.2%
ERY 21.93, +1.92, +9.6%
TVIX 81.53, +9.41, +13.1%
TZA 51.47, +5.38, +11.7%

And, for good measure, AAPL 396.54, -2.72, -0.7%

That's right. AAPL was down less than 1% today as the indices sold off from 1.6% to 2.2%. My concern about spot silver and gold taking another dump was justified, it turns out. I haven't looked at spot prices all day, but I will now. Then, after witnessing the carnage via charts, will it be time to get physical? Or is there yet more carnage to come? I think Le Fly and many others are right about the liquidation. It's like AAPL getting sold at its highs over the past 3, 4, 5 years when traders and hedge funds need to meet margin requirements on their losing trades.

I don't use margin, learned my lesson, quite a painful one many years ago. Not worth the danger.

Le Fly: LIQUIDATION (Sept 28)
> "Today marked the wholesale liquidation of metals and basic material stocks."

Le Fly: Credit Crisis, part two (Sept 28)
> "The obvious thing to do is sell short banks; but it gets better. In a tight credit environment, any company saddled with debt, maturing near term, will either fold tent or dilute the fuck out of shareholders. This time around, the credit crisis is for keeps. Provided you can withstand the overwhelming volatility, there is a great deal of money to be made as the crisis goes from 2nd to 9th inning. One of the side effects of hedge fund liquidations is monstrous drops in commodities and commodity related shares."

Cain Thaler: End of month window dressing (Sept 28)

Le Fly: Waiting for the GERMAN SLAVES (Sept 28)
> "Let's say Europe passes the ESFS and German slaves agree to fleece themselves for the degenerates on the beach in Italy and Greece. We will have a nice Liberace styled rally... Things will appear to be normal, until the fucking clawhammer of certain death smashes your brains in with horrible economic data."

Rajun Cajun: Afternoon update (Sept 28)
Turd Ferguson: Crime scene evidence (Sept 28)
SGS: No title needed. Yawn. (Sept 28)




What works and what don't (updated 200 am HST)

7:53 am (Hawaii) This market could easily sway one way or another. How it closes would just be a matter of "who has the ball last." It's not like the market ever needs a day like today with light volume and no conviction north or south, but it probably doesn't hurt trader psychology. That is, unless the trader is me and tried to work too hard. 

I've buried the 1-minute chart on FAZ, at least for now, and I'm sticking with the daily chart to keep PERSPECTIVE. You know what? Now I can actually breathe normally and demonstrate adequate patience. Beautiful thing. To those of you who can trade FAZ well on a 1-minute chart, tip of the hat to you. Learning something new every day.

The daily chart of FAZ, which I've been drawing daily for a week or so with my Amateur Issue "pen," continues to work reasonably well with megaphone patterns and flag/pennant patterns. 1) the megaphones are rarely violated on the top and bottom, and when they are, FAZ price returns. A gravitational pull of sorts. 2) The pennant formations, three since late July, are incrementally higher each time. The first had a endpoint of 57. The second, 60. The third is probably two or three days from endpoint, and it looks to be 64 or so. 

FAZ daily chart, 2 hours before the close
Why did I stray and stick my nose into the hyperinsane 1-minute chart?
The daily works just fine.

Nothing is concrete, this I know. I don't dare assume that the chart and any patterns in my fantastical imagination can predict the future. Each time the candlesticks completed a pennant/flag, they resumed higher or lower. Neither time did they stay flat at 57 or 60. After doing my novice version of charting, I should've been viewing entry and exit points far more explicitly through this perspective. 

FAZ is now at 62.95 (8:01 am Hawaii), nearly at the midpoint of its pennant/flag, and leaning more toward the higher trendline of this channel. The trendline above tops at about 68. The next channel above tops at about 82-83. I don't assume that will be reached, either, not with the possibility (probability?) of bailout/TARP programs worth trillions. But if there is no resolution in Europe, the recent high of 81+ won't be a problem for FAZ. And it will touch 100 sooner rather than later. 

If there is resolution in Euroland, FAZ craters to 50, 45, probably 40 (last spring's range). That won't last. Printing more fiat, creating a bubble in the monetary system will just delay the inevitable. 40 would be a steal. 

Dow down 101 points (8:05 am Hawaii). Again, reversal would not be shocking, but there's a lack of conviction from the bulls. Many of them have taken their profits since this three-day rally ran out of steam. My Debt Sprial list (Banksters) is red: 14 down 1.2 to 4.9%. The two greenies are FAZ and NBG.

Update 9:10 am Bummers. Market is rallying and FAZ sank from 63.10 to 62.40 in seconds. I'm not kidding. I looked down to take care of a bill, looked up, and the price dropped instantly right at 9:00 am on the nose. FAZ is roughly at the midpoint of its current range, so there's not much upside here in the very near term, so I got out at 62.15 for a small loss. That's four small losses today and I'm not happy. But I am okay about cutting losses short. That's never a bad habit.

The time to scale in was yesterday below 56 or last week at 53. I didn't do it, and now I literally pay the price. The Dow was at -34 when I sold this last trade. It's now at -29 and I won't be surprised when it clears the field and finishes up for the day.

Gold and silver in the red today. AGQ is down 11.4% to 107+, no surprise considering that candlestick yesterday, indicating a shortage of buyers in the final few hours. DGP is down 5.1% to 51.71, which means I'm glad I didn't buy any yesterday. I'm also glad I didn't buy any physical over the weekend or yesterday. I'm not the only one thinking spot prices could go much lower. I still think 21 for spot silver is a possibility, though I wouldn't really enjoy seeing that happen. But if it does, it would correlate with my rubberband snapback theory from last week. After all, spot silver went from 21 to below 9 not so long ago. It could easily go from 49 to 21, which would be the same percentage pullback. Then boomerang way up.

And FAZ is now at 62.98. Boy I wish I could ignore the minute to minute action. Dow is -75.

Update 9:37 am Back in. Again. At 63.60. Dow is down 135 and sliding. A part of me knows this is going to happen, especially after three big up days for the market, and yet I doubt myself, I doubt my analysis and I doubt what I see in front of me. Think I'll put in a stop order to sell FAZ at 60. Or 55. And walk away from the computer.

FAZ edging closer to the upper trendline of this megaphone range. The flag/pennant near-term pattern still indicates an endpoint of about 63, but that's all just lines and bars on cyberpaper. To think I bought a few shares yesterday at 60.53, FAZ is now 64.23, and I've lost money. Will I learn?

Update 10:11 am Two things happened and neither is particularly good, even though my paper profit is decent right now. 1) I added a few more shares at 65.00 about 8-10 minutes before the closing bell. I almost went big, but talked myself out of it. FAZ's momentum went from 65 to 65.49 like wildfire. 2) Instead of selling part of the position or all before the bell for a decent profit, I decided to wait and possibly sell in afterhours trading. I'd put in that stop sell order just for peace of mind, so I tried to cancel it. No luck. Apparently, it can only be processed and cancelled during market hours if it's a stop order. Did not know this. So here I am with a large (by my standards) position in FAZ, unable to sell a share.

Price has been rattling around at 64.80 to 65.10 or so since the bell. What's done is done. I'm handcuffed to this position whether I like it or not. I only want to sell because chances are somewhat strong that FAZ could sell off tomorrow morning or even today in afterhours. It's moved from 56 to 64 in 24 hours. If I'd been long from 53 or 44, I wouldn't mind being cuffed to it overnight.

Update 1:54 pm Turns out the stop order automatically killed the order. It just took 24 minutes after the bell. FAZ fell from 65.48 to below 65.00 during that time. But that was almost 4 hours ago. With 5 minutes before afterhours trading ends, FAZ is back above 65.30.

All of this is so intertwined with what goes down in Germany tomorrow. Will the Germans back Merkel and give the Greeks all the fiat they need to live life as they know it? Or will she be forced to yield to the will of the German people, who really don't want to pay for everyone else's debts. Can you blame the people?

FAZ now pushing higher again. Bid is 65.45 and ask is 65.50. If Merkel gets her way — as Geithner "advised" recently — more printing of fiat ensues, Greece has a big party, Germany ends up subsidizing all the other Eurozone countries and goes broke within a few years, just as Le Fly penned yesterday.

Me? I'm tempted to sell and get out of this before FAZ makes a move one way or the other.

Update 2:00 pm I'm too late. Was going to sell 2/3rds of my position. That would be the 2/3rds I got at 63.60, not the extra I picked up at 65.00.

Anyway... Tomorrow's scenarios?

a. Merkel gets her way, Timmy gets his way, the banksters get their way and the Greeks go into further debt to ensure a life undisturbed, though at the expense of hard-working, frugal Germans.

b. The German people get their way, Merkel yields and austerity measures paint the day, causing markets to tumble. Greece sets itself on fire, German people celebrate with lots of pints, bratwurst and sauerkraut.

Is there another possibility? 

Recess time? (updated 730 am HST)

2:52 am (Hawaii) Dow Jones futures were well into the 100+ range when I went grocery shopping a couple of hours ago. Now? 36 points. That's not much. I don't know or really care how that works, the whole business of futures in the "pre-premarket" where peons (like me) can't trade. But if I had been at home at 2:00 am when the peon premarket opened, I might have sold my little handful of FAZ at 59.12 just to get out. But I wasn't home. I was in the store, grabbing everything that I didn't plan to buy, but all necessities. (No candy bars.) I did get some potato chips. But the rest are all needed since I rarely shop and I needed everything from a wash rag to detergent.

But to the point — FAZ has ranged between 59.10 and 60 and with no catalyst in either direction so far, I'm better off waiting just a bit. I won't wait forever, though. One thing I've learned about quick trades is that it's usually better to get out at break-even or a small loss rather than let the tide push you all over the ocean, leaving you vulnerable and susceptible to a surprise tsunami.

Update 3:05 am My Regular watch list is 42% green, 37% red, 21% neutral. Oddly heavy on the neutrals. Could be a light volume day ahead. Govt stats/numbers were released about an hour ago, CNBC reported. Slightly lower than expected. Not a catalyst at all.

FAZ hovering at 59.67. AGQ down 4.3% to 115.94. DGP flat at 54.50. That's down 1 cent. Amazon about to reveal a new tablet within the hour. Not exciting.

My Metals list is 43% green, 45% red, 12% neutral. AGQ leads the losers. REE is up 4.2%. I don't trust anything about the rare earths sector. Too much yo-yo manipulation and politics.

For the first time in awhile, there's a possibility that PMs and FAZ might go up together. Not expecting it, but it could happen on a day like today.

Update 3:25 am FAZ still sitting below 60 and more than half my Debt Spiral (Banksters) list is green in premarket. However, about half of them are fractionally up: DB +0.6%, BAC +0.4%, MS +0.3%, NBG +0.3%, GS +0.1%. The list had just two in the red an hour ago. Now there are six, including FAZ, C, AIG, RBS, HBC and IRE.

I'm going to sit tight on my FAZ.

Update 3:51 am FAZ made a nice move to 60.75 and I could've sold at basically break even. But the market is more bullish than bearish and FAZ dipped to the mid-59 area and I sold for a tiny loss. There will be other days and opportunities. Dow went from +60 or so to +105 since the open. Can't fight the tape!

Update 4:21 am Back in at 60.80 with a small position. Guess I should've left my earlier position alone. Dow only +15 now, FAZ up to 61.17. Catalyst?

Update 4:40 am Added more FAZ in the 61.80ish range. Dow Jones now in the red. Looking for FAZ to reach higher to the top of the current megaphone pattern range, possibly push through (at around 63). But this could reverse so quickly. No real catalyst out there today.

Update 6:13 am Right place, wrong timing. FAZ moved up to 62.44 and I thought about selling. But I was stubborn and held. FAZ then dropped below 61. I got out at around 60.50 for another small loss. Hate the losing, but I usually keep it tight and small.

My initial entry point was 60.53. Without adding any shares, A sell over 62 would've been a small profit. Had I doubled down at 59+ earlier today, a nicer profit. But I bought at 61.80, saw FAZ drop below 61, then push above 62 and that should've been the end of this trade. Gotta let go in this weird, almost flat market, as soon as I can get a decent profit rather than hold out for some big run ... it's not coming today with no catalyst whatsoever. I knew that, but didn't apply it fully to the strategy today.

Price action should taper down to almost nothing during this lunch hour on the East Coast. FAZ has ranged from 58.88 (premarket) to 60.75, down to 59.10, up to 62.44, down to 60, up to 61.30. Now at 60.95. Had I slept in, I'd be up. I bought FAZ yesterday at 60.53. I wonder if being up all night and staying up on a 12 oz of Red Bull is detrimental. I don't think so. I just executed poorly! Need to place actual stop sell points or have them mentally, automatically with me pulling the trigger on that exact price.

I don't mind selling at small losses. If my profit-loss ratio is 2:1 or 3:1 and I continue to stick with active, liquid issues that have a built-in edge (FAZ, DGP, AGQ) thanks to this dead-end fiat global bankster economy, the pile will grow. I don't need to win every trade or even half. Disciplined management on the exit side of the trade is KEY. That's one of the few things I did right with this trade.

Update 7:01 am In FAZ at 61.35, out at 60.65. Another small loss, three in a row. FAZ is up 0.86% for the day, yet I'm down 1.3% or so because I'm trying too hard. Time to pull back. There's hardly any momentum today, especially in the banksters. Of the 16 on my list, 12 are either up or down 1% or less. I have no less confidence that FAZ has a high probability of going higher over the long term. But my intraday trading needs some serious tuning.

Update 7:34 am Back in at 62.35. Really could've been so much easier. Micromanaging FAZ is not the way to go, not for me. I'm going to stick with a more medium-term view because it will move 1.50, 2.00, 2.50 in an hour or less, and the market seems to indicate that FAZ needs to go higher (+2.8% today) even with no catalyst event or news today.

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Tuesday cinema & library (updated 1100 pm HST)


Update 8:49 pm (Hawaii) Re-entered FAZ with a handful of shares at 60.53 before afterhours trading closed. Not an exceedingly logical reason to enter, especially after it ran from 55+ in the final hour before the closing bell. But if Euroland has more noise overnight, FAZ can make the jump to 65 and 70 rather easily. If there's any sense of resolution for Euro unity, FAZ can go back to 55+ just as quickly. Longer term, FAZ is going to 100. This is a near-term bet. Wouldn't shock me to see FAZ make it back to 50 or 40 along the way.

(new) Woodshedder: Don't get punked by bear market rally (Sept 27)
> The action of the past few days reminds me a lot of what happened after Sept 18, 2008, when Paulson and Bernanke met with members of Congress to propose the $700 billion bailout. The next day, SPY gapped up over 5.5% but reverse to close up 3.4%. After that day, SPY began falling and almost never stopped until it found a temporary bottom in November."

Scott Bleier: Instability is rising (Sept 27)
Scott Bleier: Episode VI: The new, new hope (Sept 27)
Le Fly: German slaves (Sept 27)
Le Fly: Farewell iBC! (Sept 27)
Le Fly: I've retired from investing (Sept 27)
Jake Gint: Premature emasculation (Sept 27)
> Chart AGQ daily
Le Fly: Golden geese and silver too (Sept 27)
Turd Ferguson: Max Q (Sept 27)
Chris Duane (Silver Shield): Do not f@ck with us (Sept 27)
Chris Duane (Silver Shield): 'We deal in illusions, none of it is true' (Sept 27)
Dan Norcini: Gold chart and comments (Sept 27)
> Chart Gold 4-hour
Chris Duane (Silver Shield): Strong like bull (Sept 26)
(new) Cain Thaler: On the subject of cash (Sept 26)
(new) Cain Thaler: Rampaging in silver market (Sept 26)
Jeff Nielson: Precious metals vs US treasuries (Sept 25)

(new) Warren Pollock: The Power Elite (Sept 27)
(new) BrotherJohnF: Silver Update - Occupy silver (Sept 27)
Realist News: Greek people attacking politcians (Sept 27)
Realist News: Silver jumps 26% in 26 hours (Sept 27)
endlessmountain: Gold technical analysis (Sept 27)
endlessmountain: The tell of guilt, regret, ashamed (Sept 27)
ScrapGoldBusiness: Gold and silver report (Sept 27)
Realist News: Media downplaying silver, gold (Sept 27)
morganslv: Silver @ 30.00 (Sept 26)
silverfuturist: Silver down $10 in 2 days (Sept 25)

(new) Richard Maybury: When money dies (Sept 27)
(new) Gold Silver Radio: Fundamentals don't lie (Sept 27)
Kerry Lutz: Guest Chris Duane (Silver Shield) (Sept 27)
King World News: Guest John Embry (Sept 26)
Radio Liberty: Guest Bob Chapman (Sept 26)

(new) (video) CNBC: Fast Money final call: Brian Kelly - Gold (Sept 27)
(new) Business Insider: Zynga's Q2: Numbers more horrible than they look (Sept 27)
(new) Business Insider: Carlos Slim: How to fix the US economy (Sept 27)
New England Complex Systems Institute: Predicting economic market crises using measures of collective panic (Sept 27)
Financial Express: Gold buyers rush in after price slump (Sept 27)
Financial Times: Why gold forward rate inversion is important (Sept 14)

Eye candy

Happy Chicken Studio: Ayaka Uchiyama (Dec 27 2010)
Yoko & Kaeda dance (May 18 2010)
Aya Fukunaga dance (Jan 1 2009)
Micro bikini dance (Jan 21 2009)
Yoko dance (Sept 30 2008)

Cheer this

11:15 am (Hawaii) Yes, I'm totally overboard on megaphone patterns. But in these incredibly adrenaline-laced swings up and down, they give me some sense of perspective. No way do I ever think they are predictors. Headline risk out of the ECU, various Euro nations and the Fed do that for us all.

Here's a look at the banksters (FAZ), silver (AGQ) and gold (DGP). I added another pennant/flag to the FAZ chart, going back almost to the start of this latest push higher. It doesn't include the parabolic move to 81, but the general pattern(s) are there, and they are each a bit higher than the previous one.

FAZ: Hovering in lower range, nearing the latest pennant

I was hoping to see 50 or 55 today, but it rallied off 56+ 55.86 to 60+ in the final hour. I've tended to buy on a move off a near-term dip rather than actually trying to time the actual low of the day. If the rumor is true that the latest ECU-Greece deal is getting wobbly (again), FAZ gobbles its way back to 65 and 70 like Pac-Man on screen 1.

FAS: Fiat Assets Stuck

A few years back I traded FAS up and down for huge (by my peasant standards) gains and losses in minutes. Since then, I've avoided it and never thought to really trade it until this week. Then I remembered that the banksters are backed into their office corners and have no escape route unless or until the Fed rolls out the red carpet for them with another QE/what have you. This chart shows a long pennant (my description) longer term and a short pennant in the past two weeks. FAS has moved up an above both the near-term pennant and the longer-term trendline, but there's no conviction from the bankster bulls. This does not look like a 3x ETF at all. The stadium is half-empty for one of the worst teams in the league. Nobody's buying tickets to get in. The popcorn is getting stale and the hot dogs are getting cold.

 AGQ: Promising for silver bugs? Not exactly

I've got my little sack of physical silver and I don't need it to be worth $100 an oz to like this fact. But AGQ ran out of steam today. Nothing that's up 13-14% can really hold that through the closing bell, but losing half that gain was not bullish in my eyes. If AGQ had kept more than 60% of today's gain - a bit Fibonacci-ish - or more, or at least closed higher than its morning price of 128.67, I could've scaled in a bit. But at 120.46, AGQ looks and smells like a dead fish. It was fresh and ready to consume, some great sashimi. But it's now starting to rot. Demand tapered off. I'd like to see the recent gap downs filled, but today's final few hours were totally unconvincing. 

I think I luv the Redskins

People can go back and forth about whether the puppeteers are evil or just horrible. It doesn't matter whether spot price is engineered by devil dogs or not. The reality is that silver goes up and down like a roller coaster and if you try to get on while it's at full speed, you get what you deserve. That's why I prefer to wait until it slows substantially and get in with some relatively low risk. That may sound preposterous with a 3x bull ETF, but you get my drift. Used to be a buy below 180 was a good entry point for AGQ. Now? Is it 100? 120? I'd rather wait to see how this newest box settles. If the price action resembles the earlier box (after the fall from 382), it's likely the puppeteers have no plans to unleash the silver puppy and this range is here to stay for awhile. I'm fine with that. My physical stash is not about AGQ at 382. It's about safety in a possible worst-case scenario. 

DGP: Oh no, you di-int...

Oh yes, it did. Gold's parabolic move higher was met with (koff koff) a free-market move back to the latest launching point. Whatever. Maybe it really was central banks unloading the pretty yellow metal to free up desperately needed fiat to offset the sovereign debt chaos. I bought a little DGP yesterday, sold it today in premarket for a solid profit (+5%) and went to sleep. I woke to find DGP lower and it's going to stay at 54.53 in after-hours trading since it's lightly traded this time of day (wide spread). So any re-entry is going to have to wait until tomorrow.

When DGP has traded above or below the four megaphones I lined up in this chart, gravity has pulled it back in soon enough. Is the newer box action similar to the earlier box action yet? The machines could easily interpret this gap up as a reason to buy up more more more in the morning, but the lower closing price vs higher opening price clouded my eternal optimism about guh-guh-golllllld.

Isn't this the buying season for gold? Where's India and China? I doubt anyone puts much stock into that, no pun intended. Maybe they've stepped in and become the primary reason (aside from hedge funds) why spot gold bounced hard off that 1520ish level yesterday. One of the down trendlines (not drawn) puts a lid on DGP at about 62. I don't know what to think about that, just watching the action and levels.

I think I luv the Dolphins

Can't touch this

10:08 am (Hawaii) Some days, I regret that sleep is a necessity and miss opportunities. Some days, I'm just grateful for warm weather, a cool breeze and a modest profit. In those seconds (or minutes) it takes to log onto the internet from my bed after I get up, my brain can't help pondering what happened since I went to bed two or three hours into the session. Did gold and silver keep rallying? Or did something hit the market hard and send prices crashing?

When I hit the sack this morning, the Dow was up 240 points or so. It just closed the session +146. I mentioned this earlier today, and I'll say it again. This feels like a wanna-be rally. People generally want to get happy and go long and just forget about it. But it ain't happening. The gap-up moves were instantly piggy-backed by the algo space-alien superduper trading machines, which is partly why spot silver was up big and AGQ was up around 14% early in the day. (Puppeteering notwithstanding.) AGQ is now at 121.22, up 7%. That's still a humongous move from 90 yesterday (or was it the day before). Insanely massive move from the bottom when spot silver was at 26.00.

I'm not convinced spot silver is going up. I'm not convinced it's going down. If the HFT computers are searching for patterns and feeding off momentum, as usual, what happens when there's nothing conclusive in the near term? AGQ looks like it should go back to 200, that this run from 90 to 120 is just the beginning. But I'm not touching it. Yet.

DGP and gold should be done bottoming, but again, I'll let the puppeteers and machines do their thing before I step in again. The market, the precious metals ... most everything that moved up today couldn't sustain those beefy gains. I'm holding off and maybe something will be attractive before afterhours trading ends. But I'm not assuming it will happen. The relatively quiet front of Europe always bears watching, no pun intended.

Say it ain't so

Bianca Beauchamp

4:22 am (Hawaii) This can't be true. The Fly, Le Fly, retiring from the market? He may be convinced, but I say no. Why? He's had an emotionally draining few days recently. If he were to "retire" after a few boring days, successful or not, that would be a sticker. Not this. Not when he's exhausted, busy and tagged with the daily grind of being a parent/megamillionaire trader/interweb boss.

Other than that, the Dow is +255, Nas +41, S&P +23, all up 1.6 to 2.0%

I haven't tried anything since selling DGP in premarket. Things are positive for bulls, but the stuff I like are waffley. Indecisive. Lack of conviction from the buy side. I'll stay on the sideline in that case. I wanted to re-enter DGP, maybe even enter AGQ. But the run may be done for the morning, maybe the day. DGP sits above 55, which refuses to break. AGQ is sitting in the 126-127 area.

FAZ stays above 56. I'm looking for 50, greedy pig that I am.

My Regular watch list is 86% green, 14% red. Hasn't been that bullish since ... ever. AGQ, MCP, FAS, CHGS, GNK, YOKU, PSLV, MWW, SLV, DGP, YZC, SINA, UCO up 5.5% or more. Volume? Not a factor yet, but these steep gains have me thinking that we may be at a pivot point today, or we had one yesterday or Friday.

Bianca Beauchamp Black Transformation from Martin Perreault on Vimeo.

Sweet spot Tuesday? (updated 330 am HST)

2:40 am (Hawaii) I try not to be an emotionalist, though I am particularly opportunistic of general market sentiment and "hyperemotion." Gauging this market, premarket, that is, it seems that the world wants to go higher while ignoring the visible shades of austerity out of Europe. Gold and silver are finally catching up to the uptrend, and DGP reached 56.20 in premarket before pulling back on profit-taking.

There's no negative flavor so far in the 40 minutes since premarket opened, but I sold my handful of DGP at 55.00 to lock in a modest profit. I've found often times that selling a gap up did me better — or would have done me better — than holding it through the inevitable profit-taking. There are usually many chances to re-enter, sometimes before the opening bell, sometimes after it.

DGP couldn't sustain above 55 and make a move back to 56, so I got out. It's now hovering at 54.75, still up 5.2% this morning. The action in AGQ was a tell for me. After reaching 133.53, it leveled out for several minutes at 130, then 129 and 128. Once it got to 127, I knew it couldn't do much more. There's too much uncertainty even with the shred of hope that's prevailing so far from bulls. AGQ doesn't have enough buyers, especially while up 12-13%, so it sold more and is now at 124.75 (+10%).

But if the market doesn't lean too much lower (bearish), sentiment today still seems rather emotional, hopeful, bullish. In other words, it might be hard to lose as long as I don't fight the direction. I'll try and make a little more fiat along the way. It's all about generating enough revenue to stack more metal/savings. Simple reality.

Update 3:04 am FAZ dipping lower to 57.78 in premarket as the opening bell nears. 55, 50 and lower are on my radar. It's not just Greece. There is no way out for everyone in Euroland, and Germany can't escape the leeches. Anything sub-50 is a steal in FAZ.

AGQ 127.45 and DGP 54.81. Looks like a possible push higher after the opening bell, met by lack of buyers and a trend lower. In that scenario, a buy before the open would work. But that would be screwed if the market sells off immediately after the opening bell, wouldn't it?

Think it might just be simpler and more efficient to wait for a FAZ pullback to 55 or 50.

Update 3:27 am A look at FAZ and FAS just before the opening bell.

FAZ (daily) - Forming a new pennant? Violated already?

FAS (daily) has a lot of overhead room, stuck between worlds

Monday cinema & library (updated Tue 200 am HST)

Saw Moneyball last night. Great flick. Great minds coming up with a better way to succeed.

11:47 pm (Hawaii) Late start on today's cinema & library. Busy work day, busy other stuff day. Just busy. But I'm nowhere as busy as gold and silver spot prices, which are both ripping higher overseas. If you were brave and/or logical enough to grab a load of physical gold and silver last night when prices were slashed  to remarkable discount levels, a standing ovation to you. If you stepped into AGQ below 100, more power to you. At this rate, with spot silver at 33 now (it was 26 little more than 24 hours ago) and spot gold at 1675 (it was at 1520 or so about 24 hours ago), this is either a sign of the "normal" volatility to come... or the Great Takedown has finally ceased.

Was it enough for the puppeteers to empty out the last of their naked shorts in silver? Probably not, and that's not really a concern in this moment. All I need to know is how to deal with my modest position in DGP once premarket trading opens in about 2 hours. If the market rallies (I have no idea), my eyes will also be peering in on FAZ and FAS. As there were discount prices on gold and silver, there will again be low, low prices on FAZ soon enough. I plan to ride that express from 55 or 50 or 40 to 100, but I won't pretend to know when that particular train is leaving.

Golden pukefest?No anxiety for physical owners

Hi ho Silver! Already 30% above yesterday's low. 

Update 2:02 am AGQ at 130+ (+14.9%) and DGP at 55.84 (+7%) as premarket trading opens. AGQ was available yesterday below 100. In and out is the way for traders. Quick and efficient preserves capital. Or as Robert Nesta Marley once said, "He who fight and run away live to fight another day."


BrotherJohnF: Silver Update - Hidden bottoms (Sept 26)
Keiser Report: Pax Americana pyramid nightmare (Sept 26)
MoneyBags73: So many more people would want to have gold if they understood (Sept 26)
MoneyBags73: IMF may need bailout to bail out Euro nations (Sept 26)
drutter: Vancouver physical silver inventory update (Sept 26)
King World News: Why central banks smashed gold, silver (Sept 26)
Four Horsemen Film: Fiat Money (Sept 22)


Monday, September 26, 2011

Technical difficulty (updated 315 pm)

 FAZ returns to the lower megaphone range, but for how long? 

FAS in a near-term pennant/flag with room to go higher? 

10:28 am (Hawaii) Price still matters.

There's really no reason why technicals need to be discounted in a market as schizo as this. Almost everything is subject to headline risk, more on the bear side than bull, and today's move up in the indices - Dow +272, +2.5%, 11,043; Nas +33, +1.35%, 2,516; S&P 500 +25, +2.3%, 1,162) - was no shock. Yet I tried to trade against it early in the day even while it should've been clear that selling FAZ and buying FAS was best in the financials.

I finally quit on FAZ as a daytrade at 65+, taking a second small loss on the day. Totally avoidable, and even my own chart with megaphone patters and the fairly recent pennant/flag pattern, FAZ looked ready for some profit-taking. FAZ is at 61.71 after hours, off the intraday low of 60.86.

FAS climbed 11.3% to 11.72. Once it gapped up at the open (while FAZ gapped down), it should've been clear as day. The machines that own this market often trade on patterns and technicals, particularly when there is no headline risk in the near term. Gap up, finishes strong. Gap down, closes weakly. That's just what happened in FAS and FAZ.

One true oddity is that AGQ and ZSL finished in the red. AGQ hit a near-term low this morning at 96.75, but rallied and is at 114.74 after hours (-3.3%). ZSL is down 7% to 17.99. How can a bull ETN and a bear ETN on the same metal (silver) each be down that much? Yes, there is something fucking rotten in Denmark. That's paper silver. No regrets about steering clear of paper silver for weeks and months now. I'm still convinced that the puppeteers are generally long gold and short silver. The price action says it all. Bear Stearns' massive short position was left on JPMorgan's lap, and with the backing of govt power, they keep shorting silver and/or covering shorts.

AGQ 1-year

ZSL 1-year

That's not going to cause me to unload a single ounce of physical metal. I just like to know what the realities and probabilities are.

Gold spot price

Silver spot price

Gold at 1520 or so earlier today must've been painful for some people. DGP is well off its day low of 49.66, now at 52.79 after hours. That's still -2.2% for the day, putting DGP at early July levels. After four down days in a row with massive gap downs, can this support level hold? The practical reasons for owning gold are still in play. Whether people believe price is manipulated by puppeteers or we've simply had a massive profit-taking run, gold may not get any cheaper here at the 1600 level. 

DGP 1-year

DZZ 1-year

This just might be a good time to average in with the physical rather than try and time a grand slam homer. If spot silver keeps selling and later bounces off 21, it'll make some sense to me based on the snapback/rubber band theory I posted recently. It's more fantasy fun than concrete and factual. But it's enough to make anyone think about what could happen if all the stars lined up and gold sold at an untethered, unleashed price. Silver would become the tail of that comet. 

My Regular watch list is 62% green, 37% red, 1 neutral. Many of the leaders traded on solid volume today. FAS was atop the list with strong volume and FAZ closed at the bottom on fairly soft volume. In other words, there are still a lot of traders holding FAZ, probably since the recent dips to 55, 53, even going back a month or two to 50. Whatever dips happen (maybe as low as 40-44), I still see FAZ at 100 eventually due to Euro and US debt crises.

Noticed that GSVC is off the board or something right now. Basic info on my trading platform is "n/a" though Yahoo Finance has it at 14.15 for its last trade. It's going through a secondary offering real soon, not my cup of tea though I tried trading this a couple of months ago. It was a classic case of buying high and selling low. Sure the market was going through effed up gyrations, but price does still matter. Any buy of GSVC below 12 and any sell above 18 would've been Basic Trading 101 regardless of whether you believe in this company (the next CMGI?) or not.

Winners on my Regular watch list were WNR (+10.4%), YOKU (+9.1%), CRR (+8.1%), EXK (+7.5%), TSO (+7.4%), C (+7%), STR (+5.3%), SWY (+5.2%). A load of big winners (above 2%), even NFLX (+2.4%).

My Metals watch list was 43% green, 56% red, 1% neutral. AVL (+17.2%), SVM (+7.5%), EXK, GSS (+4.9%), DZZ (+4.8%) were the leaders.

My focus is still narrowed down to FAZ (and now FAS), paper gold (DGP, DZZ) with an eye on paper silver (AGQ, ZSL) and the leader of retail, AAPL, which rallied from its intraday low of 391 to 402 (-0.4%).

Maybe today was the only big-gain day of the week. Maybe we're in for choppy waters, but range bound. Maybe selling is mostly done for now. Maybe buying also done. I like FAZ below 60. Like it better at 55 or 50. I have more confidence that spot gold has hit a bottom than silver. All cash works fine right now. If the indices are up and precious metals still finish red overall today, I'm not going to fight facts, even with momentum in PMs late in the day.

Update 2:01 pm Could be a trap. Could be the bottom. Gold is going back up at some point. I'm willing to wager that the process has begun, so I got a handful of DGP before after-hours trading closed.