Thursday, June 30, 2011

Thursday afternoon library & cinema (updated)

Dominion Southall, London

(new) RT: UK grinds to a halt as half-million march against gov cuts (June 30 2011)
(new) bigdad06: Gold channel interview with Demcad (June 30 2011)
Ashraf Laidi: Oil release from SPR is QE3 (June 30 2011)
• Laidi: 'The weak dollar is here to stay'
paladex77: Economic Armageddon and You (June 29 2011)
(new) WealthCycles: Mike Maloney, David Morgan (part 1) (Jan 26 2011)
Financial News: An Irishman abroad tells it like it is (Dec 7 2010)
(new) David Morgan: Buying silver coins vs. buying silver bars (Nov 18 2010)

Reports & Blogs
(new) Harvey Organ: Open interest in silver drops to 112,000; 12 mil silver oz standing for delivery (June 30 2011)
• "Right on queue, the cartel initiated the raid due to the jobs report tomorrow morning."
(new) Bill Wilson: The new danger to US independence (June 30 2011)
• "Iceland averted a sovereign debt crisis in 2008 by refusing to bail out its banks that had bet poorly on housing."
(new) European Voice: Iceland seeks speedy progress in EU bid (June 30 2011)
(new) Eric Sprott, Andrew Morris: Caveat Venditor! (June 30 2011)
(new) Bloomberg: Geithner to consider leaving after debt debate (June 30 2011)
Turd Ferguson: Sprott latest (must read) (June 30 2011)
(new) CNN: Ron Paul: US should declare bankruptcy (June 28 2011)

Rare earth Thursday

5:23 am (Hawaii) This week's bull run continues. DJ up 142 points (+1.1%) to 12,404. Nas up 30 points (+1.1%) to 2,771. S&P up 12.25 points (+0.9%) to 1,319. Metals list is 47% green, 48% red, 5% neutral. Rare earths are tearing higher. MCP (+6.6) is up $3.76 to 60.78. It was at 52 last week, dipping on news of major insider sales. REE is up 6.1% to 11.14. AVL is higher by 5.8% to 6.89.

The rest of the metals are up fractionally, none more than 1.5% with a few exceptions like CU, COPX, SVM, XME.

XG (+1.3%) and GDXJ (+1.2%) have decent gains so far. It smells like the run is petering out.

My Regular watch list is 68% green, 32% red. Ford (+3.5%), TSO (+3.2%) and RLOC (+2.7%) are among the leaders. Is this the end of the end-of-month window dressing? Tomorrow is July 1, so we'll find out soon enough. Today's supposed to mark the end of QE2, but all signs point to almost no fear of a prolonged hiatus until QE3. It appears improbable, even impossible, for the Fed to rule out the option of printing more dollars. There is no tangible alternative on the table, nor the political will to truly explore a cure for the ailing system.

Is the American public willing to take the medicine necessary? Are the powers that be willing to go down so we can transition to a new system? Of course not, not when it means losing billions of dollars. But the lie can't last forever.

Update 5:43 am (Hawaii) Financials are up across the board. SCGLY (+3.1%), NBG (+2.9%), BBVA (+2.7%), STD (+2.4%), DB (+1.6%) showing strength across the Eurozone. JPM, C, GS up fractionally. BAC down 1.2% on bad news yesterday. IRE down 1.8%. Finnies basically leading the run this week.

Raquel Welch

Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Wednesday afternoon cinema & library (updated)

10:30 am (Hawaii) Just a lazy morning in Honolulu, partly cloudy, 80 degrees, light tradewinds as I enjoy the coolness out on my lanai. Haven't touched the TV remote all morning and enjoying zero white noise. DJ +0.6% to 12,261. Nas +0.4% to 2,740. S&P +0.8% to 1,307. End-of-month window dressing continues. Crude oil up; UCO +4.5% on roughly double of yesterday's volume.

AGQ, GPL, NUGT, COPX, PAAS, NGD, CU, GDXJ, DBS, AG, SLV, SLW top my Metals list (74% green). The miners: NUGT, GD XJ, SLW have significantly higher volume today, but the rest of the leaders had matching numbers to yesterday. Miners were long overdue for a bounce. Beware of dead cats.

(new) StormCloudsGathering: Why the national debt will never be repaid (June 29 2011)
RealDemocracyGr: Greek police vs. Protestors (June 29 2011)
ABC: Fire surrounds New Mexico nuclear lab (June 29 2011)
morganslv: Silver update (June 29 2011)
MSNBC: Greece OKs austerity plan as riots grip Athens (June 29 2011)
James Turk: Philipp Vorndran interview (June 29 2011)
Robin Griffiths: Gold, silver will behave as money, not as commodities (June 29 2011)
Wafdawg: The psychology of silver and independence (June 29 2011)
MoneyBags73: 5 weeks to US default on debt obligations (June 28 2011)
Ron Paul: People are finally waking up to the tyranny (June 28 2011)
Sean Brodrick: Big stocks with big, fat dividends (June 28 2011)
(new) syyenergy7: Bob Chapman article from 2003, Silverado Gold (June 25 2011)
Robert Kiyosaki: Food storage, guns for coming 2012 Depression (Mar 22 2011)

Reports & Blogs
Silverfuturist: Master Pattern silver: $26 then $50 this year? (June 29 2011)
• Reasonable enough, though I don't expect 26. Then again, Spot silver went from 21 to 9 (57% pullback) before running to 49. A 57% pullback from 49 would take spot to 21. Again, I doubt that scenario.
Turd Ferguson: ChartDaddy (June 29 2011)
• Copper as a predictor?
Mineweb: China's first precious metals spot exchange opens in 'Silver City' (June 29 2011)
Chris Whalen: $200 billion in claims against JP Morgan, banks (June 29 2011)
Max Keiser: Live blogging from witness in Syntagma Square (June 29 2011)
Doug Groh: Not adding gold bullion now (June 29 2011)
CNBC: Apple may offer older iPhone for free in fall (June 29 2011)
Info Wars: Ron Paul: Obama's Libya War power grab impeachable (June 29 2011)
Jeb Handwerger: Investors around the world monitoring expiration of QE2 (June 29 2011)
Salt Lake Tribune: Lee: Gold, silver should be treated like currency (June 29 2011)
Gary North: Geithner's victims of last resort (June 29 2011)
(new) U. of California Dept. of Nuclear Engineering: Radiation sampling results (June 28 2011)
New York Sun: A first step to sound money (June 28 2011)
Jason Hommel: How I felt when I bought silver (June 28 2011)
• Tim Geithner: Letter to Sen. Michael Bennet (May 13 2011)
Vedran Vuk: China becomes choosy (June 29 2011)
Marin Katusa: America's oil supply: keystone for survival (June 29 2011)
Michael Johnson: Five muni ETFs to watch if Meredith Whitney's call is right (June 29 2011)
Tony Sagami: Latin stocks that are making a bundle from China (June 29 2011)
Le Fly: The Great Spectacular Continues (June 29 2011)
• He went long financials
Zero Hedge: US Mint to start selling 2011 ASE proofs at 75% premium (June 29 2011)
Doug Hornig: The great nugget scam (June 28 2011)
Wallet Pop: Food stamps for fast food? (June 28 2011)
New America Now: Economic collapse, top 5 places not to be (June 26 2011)
Gary North: Bernanke channels Benchley (June 25 2011)

Denise Milani

49ers hacking the Bears

7:08 am (Hawaii) If this were an NFL game, the 49ers (gold miners) would be stomping the Bears. NUGT is up 5.2% (29.70) on impressive volume. After trading 78K shares yesterday, NUGT has already traded 200K today, and it's only the halfway point. GDXJ is also up (2.8%) on solid volume, and same with GOLD and GDX.

Silver is also spiking this morning. AGQ is up 5.1% (164.95), though volume is sluggish throughout the silver sector. The sellers are sold out, or were, as of Monday-Tuesday, apparently. GPL (+4.6%), AG (+3.7%), PAAS (+3.4%) look nice on the surface, but again, volume is miniscule.

CU and COPX are gaining (3.5%) again, but volume is nothing special.

Rare earths are also up, but volume there is the same: middling. MCP is up 2.7%, possibly because of talk of a merger.

75% of my Metals list is green. Crude oil is rallying, the dollar is down and things appear to be "normal" for an upside day in metals. Even XG (+0.8%) and DGP (+1%) are up. How long the metals rally is a matter of how much the market believes QE3 is actually underway with the Fed buying Treasurys again. Can anybody eat tainted food without eventually keeling over?

Gold, silver rally

6:26 am (Hawaii) Shaking off the cobwebs on an early morning in the islands. It's interesting to find gold and silver have rallied nicely for a second day in a row. Yesterday and Monday, volume was anemic and I wasn't convinced of anything in the market. But it's possible we're in for a short-term melt-up similar to what happened on the way up last year, a run of +40 point days in the Dow. I doubt, if this is the case, that it would last very long, though. Maybe a week. There's no justification for the banksters to run high in any scenario over a period of a month or more. QE3 or its stepbrother will be no cure whatsoever for the long term. Getting the timing on this will be the challenge.

Wednesday morning library & theater

An oldie but goodie: Mike Maloney speaking in Russia, September 2010. He laid it out in plain, blunt, colorful language. It was the truth and remains the truth. Still compelling to watch months later as everything he predicted unfolds before our eyes. Sure, QE/bailouts/extended ponzi can delay the inevitable, but the puppet show won't last forever. Oz will be revealed and it will be best to be prepared.

Mike Maloney: $10 oil? Maloney schools bankers on deflation, gold and silver (part 1) (part 2) (Sept 21 2010)

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Tuesday afternoon library & theater

Ketchikan Library, Alaska, 1908

(new) Turd Ferguson: Mid-day update (June 28 2011)
(new) Ben Davies: Revolting PIIGS (June 28 2011)
AP: Treasurys fall on hopes Greece will avoid default (June 28 2011)

(new) Mark Hulbert: Is gold entering a bear market (June 28 2011)
(new) David Rosenblerg: US at risk of post-QE2 downturn (June 28 2011)
(new) National Geographic: Doomsday Preppers (part 1) (part 2) (part 3) (part 4) (June 28 2011)
(new) Nigel Farage: Free Europe, ditch the Euro (June 28 2011)
(new) CNBC: New Jersey takes out $2.58 billion loan (June 28 2011)
(new) pdlumina: Can we just get this economic beatdown over with (June 28 2011)
Frank Holmes: Gold will double in 5 years (June 28 2011)
Max Keiser: Waterboard Bernanke again (June 28 2011)
Minyanville: 10 things you never knew about outsourcing (June 28 2011)
(new) chamaflauge: Riots, violence, silver, gold and Shanghai (June 26 2011)

Easy come, easy go

9:10 am (Hawaii) Is this a paper mache market today? I woke up a few times in the past few hours, checked volume, and went back to sleep. Traders who stepped in on Monday and early today made their profits, but beyond today, it's all fluff, I'm guessing. Though my Regular watch list is 82% green, just about every upside play has anemic volume. A few have similar volume to yesterday or volume that's close to average. But a large majority are up on hardly any trading. Major caution sign!

Monster Worldwide (MWW) is an exception. Big volume, nice candlestick. CYB (Wisdom Tree Chinese yuan fund) is also up on huge volume. I'm always interested in ways to play yuan long term. Anyone (not me) with a huge stack of benjamins in the bank has to think about buying a significant amount of yuan to hedge against inflation.

73% of my Metals list is green, but it's the same trap there with light volume. It's true that there have been big moves, week-long moves, right after stocks trade lightly. Maybe we just don't have any sellers left. Maybe China saving the Eurozone (temporarily) is enough. Maybe the Fed buying up Treasurys is enough. Maybe Nike beating expectations is plenty. But I'm not sold on this.

The one byproduct of today's gains (DJ +1.1%, Nas +1.3%, S&P +1.1%) is that silver's downward momentum has finally stopped, at least for today. GPL (+5.9%), EXK (+4.6%), AG (+2.7%), SIL (+2.5%), SLW (+2.4%, PSLV (+2.2%) all helping the miners sector. But it's hard to get excited when volume is so restrained.

Gold also has a bunch of healthy players, including NUGT (+2.9%), NGD (+2.3%) and GDXJ (+2%), but again, thin volume. XG and GG are up on massive volume. Crude oil is up. Copper is up. But on the whole, it all smells more like end-of-month buying by hedge funds to pretty up the books, not a legit turnaround. There isn't another clear catalyst in sight, which means we could see a slow meltdown for days to come. Perhaps weeks. Same scenario we had a week ago, but in slow-motion. It's thinnish markets like this that set up the average guy for a beatdown via flash crash. I'm content to be mostly cash and getting my sleep.

Monday, June 27, 2011

Monday night library & theater (updated)

Tokyo National Library

2:06 pm (Hawaii) Catching up on the past 24 hours of info. China bailing out Eurozone? Not shocking. No wonder the market was giddy today even before Greece agreed officially to semi-austerity measures.

5:36 pm (Hawaii) Some new links.

Reports & Blogs
(new) Corey Rosenbloom: Interesting patter repetition to monitor in gold (June 27 2011)
(new) Tom Mullen: Can Ron Paul really be right about everything? (June 27 2011)
(new) Ron Paul: The keys to economic growth (June 27 2011)
(new) Mark Faber: Why it's too late for the dollar (June 27 2011)
(new) Vedran Vuk: Releasing the US oil reserves (June 27 2011)
(new) Dian L. Chu: Poorly-timed SPR oil release could cost US taxpayers $1.5 billion (June 27 2010)
(new) Washington Post: MySpace expected to lay off at least 150 employees on Wednesday (June 27 2011)
(new) MarketWatch: Panasonic to cut 10,000 Sanyo staff (June 27 2011)
(new) Andrew Malone: The Big Fat Greek Gravy Train (June 27 2011)
(new) Chuck Butler: To raise or not to raise the debt ceiling (June 27 2011)
(new) William Norman Grigg: How Whitey Bulger bought Boston (June 27 2011)
(new) Justin Raimondo: The war against 'Isolationism' (June 27 2011)
(new) Survival Blog: The case for silver spoons (June 27 2011)
(new) Merv Burak: Technically precious with Merv (June 27 2011)
(new) Rick Mills: 'Cash in, not out of, $1,500 gold' (June 27 2011)
(new) Ben Parry: Playing with fire in a cashless society (June 27 2011)
Le Fly: Tech is revving up (June 27 2011)
Turd Ferguson: The Dipman Cometh (June 27 2011)
Zero Hedge: China says it will bail out insolvent European countries (June 26 2011)
Market Oracle: Silver looks like dipping below $30 (June 26 2011)
WSJ: OPEC bristles as West taps reserves (June 25 2011)
(new) Lone Ranger Silver: 100 items to disappear first in a currency crisis (June 3 2011)

(new) Jim Rogers: Europe will have to love China like never before (June 27 2011)
(new) Silverfuturist: Every metal went bubbly in past decade except gold (June 27 2011)
Stellaconcepts: Silver mythbusters #1: 100:1 paper backing physical (June 27 2011)
David Morgan: The foundation of our monetary system is rotting away (June 27 2011)
James Turk: Ronald-Peter Stoferle interview (June 27 2011)
(new) Lindsey Williams: Signs that it's 'Game Over' (part 3) (June 26 2011)
(new) Silverfuturist: Andrew Maguire to speak in August (June 26 2011)
(new) wafdawg: Debt detonation is the endgame (June 26 2011)
(new) Tony Sagami: 6 ways to play China's booming hotel business (June 25 2011)
(new) wafdawg: Economic storm — market volatility and oil (June 25 2011)
Robert Ian: Audit the gold (June 24 2011)

Kyoto, Japan

'Flash sales' and fiat currency cash cows

11:59 am (Hawaii) I slept through nearly the entire session. Yeah, after being jolted by an energy drink on top of my normal nocturnal hours, I slept precisely between 4 am and 9:45 am, which is when the market is in action during Hawaii time zone hours. I didn't miss much, from what little I've seen, other than seeing that a small position in ZSL (silver ultra bear) would've been nice. I am 80% cash, have a small position (still) in DGP and a growing pile of physical metal.

With that said, Apmex has another "flash sale" going. Catching up on e-mail (I'm in summer slumber mode and I deserve that), Apmex sent a long, long e-mail recently. I just read it and was surprised by the tone of it. Didn't expect something like that from a big metals dealer. It was refreshing. Yet, the sense of urgency has me thinking that like all dealers, Apmex does not want to be washed out to sea for days or weeks or months at a time. They're no different from you and me. When they buy their metal, they don't want to see the spot price manipulated by some "invisible" entity without TRUE price discovery. Anyone who says otherwise, fuck 'em. It is what it is. Not a complaint. Just the truth. And yet, no matter what the puppet masters do, in the long run (one week, one month, one year, one decade), silver and gold will float to the surface no matter who severe the wreckage inflicted by the banksters/Fed/Wizard of Oz/(you fill in the blank).

The fact that Apmex, which charges quite the premium on its American Silver Eagles, has presented several flash sales in the past few months is cool. I haven't taken full advantage yet, not because I don't like the flash sales, but because of timing and better offers (not always in price) elsewhere. Today, they have their own Apmex 1-ounce silver bars at 99¢ above spot. Can't really go wrong with that. Of course, the dilemma for any silver bug right now is whether to buy with spot price at $33.62, or wait for a drop to 29. Or Jeff Christian's 26 level.

Common sense says to average in. Buy a bit here. Buy a bit more at a lower level, if price gets there. Nobody can really know what's going to happen. Maybe 33 is a bottom. Maybe not. Part of me wishes I'd held all my dry powder and waited for sub-30 to get any physical silver. But the truth is I have no regrets whatsoever about my silver buys, and it really is a small amount to this point, being a latecomer to the "revolution."

So no, I don't recommend buying physical silver at 33.62 if you're looking for the ultimate bargain. I do suggest getting silver here to start the process of protecting your hard-earned dollars against the perils of inflation and hyperinflation. The Euro scored a small victory today with Greece's vote in favor of pseudo-austerity measures. That works against the US Dollar and in favor of precious metals. But whatever the case, a 5-10% slice of the pie should be in PMs, if not more, and that's where I'm going.

They cannot milk gold and silver like a fiat currency cash cow. Eventually, cows die. Gold and silver last forever.

Apmex: Flash sale (June 27 2011)

Monday afternoon library

Denise Milani still loves the Dodgers

5:15 am (Hawaii) Believe Bloomberg? They posted a report that the Fed is likely to spend $300 billion on Treasuries without having to print another US Dollar.

In other news, the Dodgers have declared bankruptcy.

Reports & Blogs
Bloomberg: Fed may buy $300 billion in Treasuries after QE2 (June 27 2011)
Cain Tailer: Crude to $60 (June 27 2011)
Turd Ferguson: Gold due for July dip, maybe to 1440 (June 27 2011)
LA Times: Dodgers bankruptcy: Frank McCort says Bud Selig forced the move (June 27 2011)
Bloomberg: Ron Paul's anti-Fed message drives bid (June 26 2011)

Friday, June 24, 2011

Weekend Theater & Library (updated)

Sanskrit Theater, Bengal, India

Minyanville: 10 things you never knew about gold (June 13 2011)
bigdad06: Bankster Nation (June 24 2011)
George4title: Raising children during the Great Recession: Get Faith (June 24 2011)
CNBC: Apmex CEO Michael Haynes: Why central banks are buying gold (June 24 2011)
CNBC: Geithner interview, re: debt reduction negotiations (June 24 2011)
CNBC: Why isn't lower oil lifting stocks (June 24 2011)

(new) Turd Ferguson: Saturday Stuff (June 25 2011)
• His chart analysis is as good as any
(new) chessNwine: 5 possible breakout stocks (June 25 2011)
(new) Le Fly: Bullish on UCO, EXK (June 24 2011)
(new) Scott Blier: But I had no idea ... (June 24 2011)
(new) Dan Norcini: CCI signaling deflationary forces are in ascendancy (June 24 2011)
(new) Scott Strzelczyk: Our Wily Coyote moment has arrived (June 23 2011)
(new) Longrangesilver: Living through a currency devaluation (June 20 2011)
Ynetnews: Japan: Fukushima drone loses control, lands on reactor building (June 24 2011)
Don't Tread On Me: The Silver Stealers (June 24 2011)
CTV News: House refuses to give Obama power to continue in Libya (June 24 2011)
CNN: Ron Paul worries Fort Knox gold is gone (June 24 2011)
Gonzalo Lira: IBG-YBG: Owning vs. Managing — Democracy vs. Kleptocracy (June 24 2011)
Apple Investor: Zynga now owns four of largest Facebook games (June 24 2011)
CNet: Ten ways to work smarter on your iPad (June 24 2011)
Reuters: Money mangers up net length in gold, silver-CTFC (June 24 2011)
Apple Insider: Apple's second beta of iOS 5.0 enables wireless sync with iTunes 10.5 beta 2 (June 24 2011)
Charles Hugh Smith: Why the Eurozone and Euro are both doomed (June 23 2011)
From Pimco: "IEA Action yesterday continues policymaker efforts to cap bad inflation (silver margins etc.) Nonetheless – higher inflation ahead." (June 23 2011)

They can't milk gold and silver dry this time

12:54 pm (Hawaii) Charts and ETFs don't mesh often times, but with Spot Silver and Gold prices locked in a range, it's possible, just possible that we see certain patterns remain for the coming weeks.

• ZSL has run from 17 to 19+, back to 17, and up to 19.58, all in the past two weeks.

• DUST ran to 52, down to 44, then up to 48.92 since June 16.

• QID went from 54 to 57, back to 54, up to 56 since June 14.

• MCP pure kookoo in two weeks. 46 to 52 in two days, then down to 47 and up to 54 in another two-day span. then 52 to 56 between yesterday and today. It's one of those you can trade like a madman, or just pocket it and forget about it for a year. Rare earths are here to stay and the Chinese are going to make sure supply (they control 97% of the stuff) is limited.

• Other rare earth princes like REE have been roller-coaster nauseating. REE went from 9.00 to 11.40 in two days. Sank to 9.40, rode up to 11.10 and is at 10.67 after hours today. All in two weeks.

• Puppet masters knocked gold down as it was about to break to new highs, which means DZZ went from 6.35 to 6.89 since Wednesday. Same move for GLL, from 22.40 to 24.12 in the same time frame.

• FAZ is hovering between 46+ and 52. As more and more banksters (and insurance companies) announce huge writedowns and losses in the coming weeks due to Euro debts, fear of bank collapses and closings should drive FAZ much higher. Nothing would surprise me, though, including some devious plan that would keep the banksters solvent and maintain their current levels of stock price and Monopoly currency.

• JJC, the copper subindex ETN, has been stuck between 53 and 55. Currently 53.83. If stagnant, almost predictable action is your thing, let 'er rip. China's not coming to a complete standstill anytime soon.

• AGQ is a sight. From 165 to 186 in steady action for almost two weeks, then blindsided by the CME mafia the past two days. By CME mafia, I do mean all the powers that manipulate the "Free Market" of commodities, such as crude oil. I am NOT for blatant naked shorting, but I don't see the point of kneecapping any price discovery, especially when the LONG-TERM effect will be negligible at best.

Same goes for all the silver plays that were hammered the past two days, even though MINERS SHOULD BE GAINING DUE TO DECREASED ENERGY COSTS! It's mind boggling to see it all play out. I'm not advocating a full swan dive into miners (gold and silver) here, but AGQ is among many  metal plays now near YTD lows. At 160, AGQ is only a couple of bucks higher than its low a month ago.

It all comes back to what Mike Maloney has said for years and years: The Fed, that private entity that runs our finances, may not have any gold and silver in its vaults. Meanwhile, central banks across the globe have wizened up in recent years and started to accumulate mass quantities of metals to hedge against their valueless US fiat currency/IOUs. So how does the Fed respond? By holding gold and silver hostage.

It ain't pretty. They've got one, maybe two bullets left and they're up against Justice. You can't fuck over the world this long, borrow to the hilt, and not pay back WHILE STILL ASKING FOR MORE FUNDS TO BORROW. It would be best to restructure and concede rather than drag out the hostage crisis. By doing this to us, the Fed and banksters are simply prolonging the inevitable. I have no doubt that they are personally stocking up on all the gold and silver they can at these levels, and I would not be surprised if this is also a way to benefit all our debt masters, particularly China. This gives them ample opportunity to stock up at low prices.

Meanwhile, the value of the dollars we make by working every day (if we have jobs) is eroding by the day. A fucking candy bar at Safeway costs $1.29 now. This is like shopping for snacks at the movie theater. It's just getting worse. And it's been far worse in other countries for a much longer time.

I am not sweating the decline of spot price. I am just anxious to buy at the best discount I can get. That might come on Monday in two weeks or two months, but it's coming. I'm loading. I'm stacking. I'm not waiting for my bank to re-open after some strange "inventory" closing when one of our debt masters calls our bluff at the poker table. I think some of the experts are right. Jeff Christian is probably right when he says silver will drop to 26, then go up, up, up from there late in the year. Jim Sinclair is probably right when he says silver will rocket this year. Maybe not this summer, but eventually, yes.

By then, it won't be a question of how much we paid to protect our assets. It'll be a matter of how much protection we accumulated. I feel for the hard-working folks who were stretched to the limits, but there are also a lot of lazyass bitches who borrowed off their credit cards to the hilt. They bought stuff they couldn't afford for decades, and I'm not about to let them get me again. If they aren't ready this time, that's their effing problem.

Denise Milani

Not quite minus squared

9:37 am (Hawaii) Market is down (Dow -99.83/-0.8%, Nas -31.77/-1.2%, S&P -13.09/-1.0%), but it's not convincing of an onrushing disaster, either. Dollar is up 6/10th of a percentage point, crude oil down again (SCO up 1%). The Metals list is 27% green, 73% red with a majority on the plus side being bear plays. But the key is low volume up and down. Maybe it's a respite of sorts and Monday begins a bloodbath. Or maybe this market will remain choppy, indignant and petulant.

ZSL is up 5.3% to 19.46. DUST, QID, gold bears GLL and DZZ are among the leaders on the list. REE, MCP and AVL have kept rare earths near the top.

Meanwhile, the finnies faded. Three were in the green in the opening minutes today, but now all are in the red. NBG, which got up to 1.43 yesterday on the positive news of austerity psuedo-measures, is down 7% to 1.32. Pulling back is no surprise, but I thought there might be continued momentum after profit-taking. It's tough to make it when you're a bankster.

Silver plays are getting minced again, not a shock. AGQ down 5.4% to 161.54, EXK (-5.2%), SLW (-4.3%), PAAS (-3%), GPL (-4.5%), SVM (-5.1%) are among the bruised silver miners. XG (-2%), NUGT (-5.3%), GG (-3.7%), GDXJ (-3.1%), DGP (-3%) are among the gold plays getting stomped. DGP's descent is unusual; it's normally not a big mover up or down. It's my lone play, a small position, and Spot Gold has room to fall, maybe to 1450. Not fun, but the puppet masters will do what they deem necessary to justify implementation of the next bailout/quantitative easing/big lie.

My Regular watch list is 26% green, 74% red. AAPL is down 1.6% to 325.95. TVIX (+7.5%) and VXX (+3.7%) are up big, as is QID (+3.5%). No buyers, and it seems some hedge funds have emptied out. It's nice to rest easy on summer vacation.

It gets interesting on the Regular list. CMG (+1.1%), RLOC (+0.8%), CSTR (+0.3%) are up. Then it's red, red, red, red ...

Silver, gold squished, but rare earths are hot

3:41 am (Hawaii) A rare morning of no sleep, just stayed up through the night. Being a night owl, that's not hard. But I will crash out soon enough and leave the market to the rest of you crazy people, trying to trade this madness ...

Well, the bad news is silver plays are getting scorched. ZSL is up 2.3% to 18.92. But a sidelight is the way rare earth plays are also near the top of my Metals list. MCP is +2.3% to 55.18, off its early high of 55.50. REE is also pushing toward the top, up 1.6% to 10.67. AVL is hot, too (+2.4%).

Gold is also getting sandblasted. Crude oil is down again, which is positive for SCO (+1.8%). Metals list is 41% green, 49% red.

AAPL is fractionally higher. All in all, a blaaah kind of open. No catalyst in sight for bulls. The bear view is middling at best, though things could get interesting going into the close for something like FAZ. Or if Spot Silver is ready to drop through 34, ZSL would be a possible ride.

Thursday, June 23, 2011

Thursday night library & theater (updated)

Tama Art University Library, Tokyo

Zero Hedge: 'China will convert quite a bit of US trade deficit from dollars into oil' (June 23 2011)
Zero Hedge: Cantor will propose balanced budget amendment (June 23 2011)
Mike Krieger/Zero Hedge: 'They have no freaking clue' (June 23 2011)
Zero Hedge: Another algo gone wild (June 23 2011)
David Galland: US monetary system, descent into facism: Edwin Vieira (June 23 2011)
Vedran Vuk: Russia's grip on gas (June 23 2011)
Chuck Butler: Trichet deep sixes Euro's rally (June 23 2011)
Jason Hommel: The temple tax (June 23 2011)
Zero Hedge: Another exchange halts levered OTC gold, silver trading (June 22 2011)
Frank Holmes: Will gold equity investors strike gold? (June 21 2011)
Eric Janszen: The Next Ten Years: There Will Be Blood (June 21 2011)
(audio) Norm Franz: Financial armageddon (2008)
• Franz has a lot of interesting observations, but be warned he ties everything to biblical prophecy, in case that's not your belief. 
(audio) Norm Franz: The world wide financial collapse (Sept 26 2007)
(audio) Norm Franz: America's financial humpty dumpty (Feb 21 2008) 
(audio) Norm Franz: Debt for equity swaps

streetmoney21: The 2-minute bell just hit and the stadium is real quiet (June 23 2011)
CNBC: Mark Fisher on 'government bringing a knife to a gun fight' (June 23 2011)
• Fisher enters at 3:40
Bob Chapman: Trolls, sock puppets and the world we live in (June 23 2011)
Bob Chapman: The Fall of the Euro and Greece (June 23 20110
James Turk: Bruno Bandulet interview (June 23 2011)
Pam Aden: Gold and silver not in a bubble yet (June 23 2011)
• El-Elarin: 'We can't find another buyer for treasurys.'

Attack of the Euro castle

11:45 am (Hawaii) An astute poster on Turd's magnificent site noted that the CME mafia attack on gold and silver this morning may have had more to do with Spot price in Euros than Dollars. His thesis is compelling, and with gold price at all-time highs in recent weeks in Europe, it also makes sense.

ScottJ: Raid to protect Euro Gold closing? (June 23 2011)

bigdad06 points to the White House's move to kneecap crude oil this morning as an indication that the Fed/CME mafia is running out of methods to control the price of gold and silver.

(video) bigdad06: Emergency update! (June 23 2011)

On Fast Money, Doug Kass stated what a lot of retail traders and investors have noted: the Fed has no clue of what to do.

I'm debating whether to acquire some First Spouse 1/2 oz gold coin today from the US Mint. Today, they began selling Julia Grant gold coinage. I prefer the proof, never owned one before. But at $929 for the half-ouncer, that's roughly $170 over spot. I don't mind paying premium for the 5-oz America The Beautiful silver coinage, but the First Spouse gold? It's a tough call, especially when American Gold Eagles are available much cheaper. There's a side of me that is practical and has remained sealed to lower bullion prices. But a small part of me is digging the numismatic flavor of coins. Tough call. In addition, a new ATB is out next Wednesday, and on Thursday, new American Silver Eagle proofs go on sale.

I like the ATB that came in the mail a couple of weeks ago, even if it doesn't have that shiny, proof look.

12:37 pm (Hawaii) Did some checking on eBay regarding the First Spouse coins. There have been previous series (2007, '08, '09) of First Spouse half-ounce gold coins, and some of them are selling below spot. They include a half-ounce Dolley Madison ('07) currently going for $676 (with 2 days left).

I don't know how limited their mintages were, but I'm not encouraged. 

(Note: This site lists the Dolley Madison mintages at 18,355 for proof, 12,541 for uncirculated. I think that Dolley coin will get much higher before the deadline.)

Paying $170 over spot for a new Julia Dent proof or even a Mary Todd Lincoln proof doesn't make sense, especially with the possibility of Spot Gold prices dropping this summer. 

Leaning toward waiting a day. If spot prices tank again tomorrow, I'll avoid premium prices; US Mint's prices are locked and will not adjust to the spot. In that case, I'm better off waiting and getting American Gold Eagles elsewhere at "only" $100 over spot. If I wait, I may miss out on the First Spouses, but I like my chances by being patient. 

I don't have a lot of trust in eBay, but prices there are definitely superior for shoppers compared to premium at the US Mint. 

Greecian formula?

10:17 am (Hawaii) Major momentum swings today. Jobs report bad. Greece austerity good. Looking over several charts from AAPL to NBG to AG, could it be remotely possible that this bullish vibe — increased volume, heavy momentum from lows to highs by the close — is the real deal? I would find that preposterous to conceive. This is late June, QE2 is almost done and the Fed is in no rush to usher in QE3. In fact, the Fed seems content to see the market tank, even crash, to justify any further fiat currency destruction, i.e. printing trillions more US Dollars.

Yet there are massive numbers in some of these equities/etfs. Are they spurred by high-frequency trading? Probably, but some of those are direct from the hedge funds, and moves on big volume don't lie in the near term. Usually.

I got out of FAZ despite my long-term pessimism about the debt crisis. I am not going to wait around and get cut to pieces by market momentum to the downside. But I am willing to re-enter FAZ once the financials' true colors show up vivid and bright again. Like maybe tomorrow morning. If Spain and Portugal opt for more austere routes, like Greece, that does NOT help US banksters one bit. So it can be possible for NBG to rocket higher on austerity measures while financials stateside swallow another plate of poison.

I looked hard at NBG before the close and had an order at 1.41, but never got it filled. Bad timing. Or good, depending on how the market follows through tomorrow. It could easily pull back into the 1.30s after today's robust gain. A tiny position would be interesting, but a fast move up isn't in the cards. I can see NBG at 2.00 in a few months, but the constant downturns of other banks will keep it leashed. A move to 2.50 or higher could happen within a year. A double is never a bad thing.

Apple held high ground even when the market was still down big. AAPL closed is at 330.20 after hours (+2.3%). Today's candlestick is not exactly bullish, but it is not bearish either.

Baidu has been bullish, as well, with good news earlier in the week. It wasn't long ago that BIDU split 3-for-1 and was sitting at 70. If there's a "safe" play in China, this would be one. Big Brother protects its little brothers.

LULU and other stocks look bullish, but in this bizarro market, LULU could easily lose its recent gains. That small float cuts both ways.

Silver was a roller coaster ride today. Silver Wheaton, like AAPL, showed strength when it was a sea of red. Net-net, SLW had slightly more volume and is up 1% to 33.13 after hours.

First Majestic (AG) also had a positive day (+0.8%) despite the pummeling on silver. Like Silver Wheaton, First Majestic's fundamental numbers are impressive, particularly in profit margin. I think that gets tampered with as energy prices fluctuate, but AG is still a solid miner.

I still like EXK (8.49 after hours), which was down nearly 1% but is still among the stronger plays this week among silver miners. 7.50 is support, and some shrewd traders got in at about 7.60 recently for this elevator ride.

AGQ, GPL, PAAS, SLV for your viewing.



ZSL was a solid play on the short side, but was well off its intraday high (19.11). ZSL is at 18.49 (+6.4%) after hours.

If the CME mafia continue to pull strings on silver, a little ZSL would make good protection.

DGP (double gold bull) looked horrible on the chart, big gap down on increased volume. If the puppet masters knock gold down, as I expect, to further their argument in favor of QE3, so be it. They will not and cannot hold gold down for long, though. Eventually, the debt crisis will overwhelm all factors, and the US will have to take severe action one way or another. Every way benefits real money: gold and silver. So I will hold my little position in DGP and continue to accumulate hard assets.

Rangold (GOLD) was a rarity today, a gold play that finished green (80.03, +0.5% after hours). I don't trade it, know little about it.

There were a few gold plays that showed some strength, like NGD.

GLD was GLD.

I still like Extorre Gold Mines (XG), even with its huge run in the past several months. They are great marketers and have been successful as of late with their finds in Argentina.

DZZ is one way to play a downturn in gold. GLL is another way (+3.7% today). On the whole, however, I don't plan to short gold. If I bet against anything, it would be the financials or silver, maybe the Nas (QID). I've never played QID, and unless there's a complete breakdown, I won't touch it. But the Nas does fall apart in a big way from time to time, so QID is worth keeping an eye on.


I'm mostly cash, same as the last several months. Small, but growing pile of physical metals.