Dual duplicity

7:08 am (Hawaii) Just got up from a good night's rest. Such a flat market. My recently-made Metals Watch List is only 15% green, lowest level ever, with only bear ETFs green with one exception: XG (Extorre Gold). XG is up 6.9%. That's it. Spot Silver is below 40 as of the past hour. Spot Gold plunged to 1509.

The chameleon traders who rode Spot Silver up and are riding it down are banking big buccos. ZSL, the double silver bear ETF, is up 11.7% today. That's on top of the 30% gain already this week. Traders are making more money more quickly on ZSL than they did on Spot Silver. There's no way I would've leaned toward a position in ZSL yesterday when it was at 17.50. But there seems to be no apparent reason for anyone to buy silver, even at this level, and the lack of buyers is killing the price.

Nimble traders riding momentum. You can understand fundamentals to the fullest, but knowing where the big money is going matters most. ZSL was at 14 on Monday. Can it climb more today and tomorrow? Certainly. But again, as selling a decliner early or not at all is sometimes best, buying a rocket launcher like ZSL early rather than at the near-term top is preferable. After gaining 40% in 3 1/2 days, this is thin ice territory.

As for Spot Silver, 37.50 looks like a reasonable support level, a 50% retrace of the recent run to 49+. Great for physical silver buyers and swing traders on the bullish side. Painful for traders on the buy-and-hold side. AGQ, the double bull silver ETF, was at 370 or 380 last week. I got out with a $4/share loss. Now it's at 235.61, close to its low of 231.10. My regular watch list is only 20% green. The only stock worse off today is OPEN, down 14.3%.

Up today: GMCR (77.20 +20.6%), VCLK (18.48 +12.3%), HAIN (35.12 (+5.5%), TVIX (25.94 +5.3%), EDZ (18.07 +4.7%), TZA (35.89 +4.3%).

Game plan remains simple: 100% cash.

Update 7:39 am (Hawaii) It's always interesting to see bloggers with strong convictions get more balanced with changing climates. SGS (SilverGoldSilver.com) is one of my favorite blogs. I disagree with some things there, but generally, I appreciate the candor and intensity of his convictions. He realized that buying puts would help protect his assets, but his critics are flaming him. I've never used puts, but I understand the practicality and profitability of protection. It's insurance in a bloody market.

It's no far-fetched guess that if all of us had known Spot Silver would crash like this, most of us would've protected our positions by getting some ZSL. I got out with SLV at 46.75 and AGQ at 369.44. That was that. But if I'd opened just a tiny position in ZSL — it was at 13 last week — it would've been a good momentum read. I'm just not that astute.

Update 7:53 am (Hawaii) The news on Extorre Gold Mines (XG) last week was about "high grade to bonanza grade gold-silver results from the first 3 of 21 diamond drill holes completed to date on a discovery named Zoe at Cerro Moro, Santa Cruz Province, Argentina." Now XG says it's up to 10 drill holes that are showing this level of gold and silver. The Zoe spot is familiar for anyone who watched the company's video recently. I like the way they market their stuff. The co-chairman seems quite transparent. But I didn't believe enough to invest even a tiny position.

ZG closed at 9.03 yesterday. Now at 9.64, off the HOD of 9.91. XG has pulled back 31% on its gain today, which is approaching a level I like. I am NOT a gold bug, never bought a miner stock before. But this video from last week is entertaining enough, especially on a rotten day for precious metals.



Update 8:14 am (Hawaii) Other gold miners with positive news today are Continental Gold (CNL) and Kirkland Lake Gold (KGI). See the story here.

Also, PAAS is one of the rare silver plays that is positive today, up 1.6% to 34.37. A report says PAAS has "provided an update on the situation in Boliva and San Vicente."

Update 8:43 am (Hawaii) Spot Silver is rebounding a bit. EXK has risen steadily and is now back above 10. PAAS continues its comeback and is at 34.50.

Some thoughts on the smaller gold and silver miners. NGD has floundered lately, but is one of the gold miners that really pops when momo is on its side. Currently down 1.8%to 10.01. No news lately.

Extorre is a spin-off from Exeter. Yale Simpson, a co-chairman at Extorre Gold Mines, is executive chairman of Exeter, which is trading just above $3/share. Exeter's focus is in Chile; Extorre is in Argentina. The company logos are virtually twins. Here's a video of Simpson talking about Exeter's projections last November.

As the host of the video (done by Even Keel Media) indicated at the end of another video, Extorre is a sponsor of the program and the program is an investor in the company. Good transparency, but I'm more impressed by their marketing/PR efforts than anything. I don't know jack about mining.

Spot Gold was below 1510, but is now at 1517. Spot Silver is off its low, now 39.75.

Update 9:25 am (Hawaii) This video is a couple of weeks old, Max Keiser with Brad Cooke, CEO of Endeavour Silver. 

Part 1

Part 2

2010 Financials

This is pretty funny.

Update 10:37 am (Hawaii) This guy figured out how to cast his own silver ingot out of scrap silver and a tiny bit of .999 silver. He created a .925 sterling silver bar. Looks like a lot of work, but he probably had fun doing it. If the world ever goes to shit, this guy's skills will be invaluable. 

Wrestling with Oil

8:45 am (Hawaii) It's the 1st of April, but there is hardly a fool in the market today. 64% of my watch list is green. With so many bear plays on my list, 64% is pretty close to Pure Bull Pandemonium. 

Oil is breaking higher. WNR, Le Fly's first oil-refinery play since the Japan disaster, is above 18. Holy cash cow! WNR is up 6.6% to 18.15, a HOD, after closing below 17 yesterday. I'm still in bed, observing the world through my laptop, and haven't watched or read any global news yet. Has Libya blown up? Have the Saudis raised the price of crude? 

I see UCO up 2.5% to 58.47. APC is up 1% to 82.77. But really, refiners have been the play of intelligence. Fly was right about the need for crude particularly when Japan went into rebuild mode and WNR is a logical play no matter what else happens bullish or bearish. 

YZC, that crazy China coal play, is up 4.6% to 37.96. As oil costs rise, the Chinese continue looking to manufacture cheap energy. Coal is logical. 

Also up: HAIN (+3.2%, 33.34), NFLX (+2.4%, 243.60), MOS (+2.2%, 80.47), LVS (+3.7%, 43.77), F (+2.6%, 15.29). 

AAPL opened above 351 (while I slept soundly), but has retreated again and is below 348. I've been busy attending other matters this week, but managed to catch a piece of Fast Money late last night on the DVR. The traders are skeptical about AAPL going higher from here due to the (perception of?) parts shortages due to Japan. The one trader who I tend to agree a little more with on this was Brian Kelly, who emphasized the huge demand for Apple products (iPad 2). What's a couple more weeks of waiting? I agree. AAPL won't hit 400 as soon as most of us thought, but it'll get there. 

Big losers with 75 minutes left in the session: AZK (-4.6%, 6.70), EDZ (-4.2%, 17.12), CHGS (-3.9%, 2.92), PSUN (-3%, 3.51), TVIX (-2.7%, 35.30), GG (-1.4%, 49.11). The metals were flat earlier, but have filled up the red side of my watch list. Besides AZK, there's EXK (-0.7%, 9.75), SLW (-0.8%, 43.00) and PHYS, GLD are slightly down. GLD actually rallied some after gapping down to 138 at the open. 

It's obviously a trader's market. If I can get more comfortable with sectors like crude oil — UCO would be a great hedge to the rising cost of gas ($4.19 in Honolulu) — it wouldn't be so hard to get a grasp of. 

Monday bull party

(11:30 am, Hawaii) Talk about complete melt-up. At one point, when I wasn't sleeping through the session, my watch list was 83% green. That's basically bullish to the extreme since the other 17% are mostly bear plays.

DJIA +1.5%, Nasdaq +1.8%, S&P 500 +1.5%.

Volume wasn't great in AAPL (14.7M), but the 2.7% run from 330.67 (Friday) to 339.73 (afterhours today) is incredible. The 100-day moving average was tested three days in a row (Wed/Thur/Fri) before bouncing today. Will the 50-day MA (346+) prove to be a ceiling?

Everything with a pulse move up, from BIDU (+3%) and GOOG (+2.6%) to Japan (EWJ (+2.2%). The yen softened; FXY slightly down (-0.4%).

LVS gained 6.4%, while other recent gainers like OPEN (+2.4%) and HAIN (+2.5%) rose.

Precious metals roared. SLW gained 5.9% to 42.25 (afterhours). EXK +5.1% to 9.62, PAAS +3.6%, PHY +2.4%, SLV +3.2%. NGD +3.4% and GLD +0.7%. Great day for the metal bugs. SLW and EXK ranked second and third on my list of gainers.

WNR, Le Fly's favorite oil refiner play, gained 4.4% to 21.59. UCO gained 1.1% (53.33).

Big losers were TVIX (-15.4%, 44.85), VXX (-7.5%, 32.70), TZA (-7.1%), EDZ (-5.1%) and QID (-3.6%). PSUN also sold off again, down 1.9% to 3.62. C also fell 1.6% to 4.43. Interestingly, X dropped 0.6%.

I'm content to stay in cash here until the puzzle is solved. Which is probably never going to happen. AAPL is my vehicle of preference, and if the runway clears for a flight to new highs, I'll get a ticket. Until then, this is a range-bound titan, from 326 to 360, and there is money to be made in that space. Hat's off to those who bought at 330 on Friday.

Bloomberg: Tokyo Electric says Fukushima fuel rods damaged, leak to sea (Mar 21 2011)
Reuters: Oil lifted by Mideast unrest, Libya conflict (Mar 21 2011)
Bloomberg: Japan futures, nuclear stocks advance as reactor crisis eases (Mar 21 2011)
Business Times: AT&T's big deal lifts Wall St (Mar 21 2011)
AP: Developments in Japan's disasters, nuclear crisis (Mar 21 2011)
Business Insider: What about the Plutonium MOX? (Mar 21 2011)
The Guardian: Google accuses China of interfering with Gmail system (Mar 21 2011)

It's all about a cheapskate mentality

12:00 pm (Hawaii). Isn't it? Haggling for a great, not just good, but great price. Sure, there are breakout strategies, which is akin to betting on football teams that throw 10 or 15 bombs per game. Not all breakouts lead to touchdowns, unquestionably. Why should any of us overpay?

There are always indicators that lead to profits. Clues. Little hints in between earnings reports and fantastically great (or horrendous) catalysts. I like a good book real cheap. Used is fine with me as long as it's almost new. Paying 2 bucks online for a slightly worn 20-dollar book is great. So with Borders shuttering a third of its stores, will we have brand-new books at yard-sale prices? Probably not so much. CNN.com reports that most books at Borders will be moved to stores that will remain open.

Boo.

What else might be cheap? Le Fly indicated, uh, well, something about PSUN. A quick check showed that Pacific Sunwear shares went from 24 to below 1 buck in the past five years. Now at 4.44, it still has ugly numbers, but manageable debt. Float is just 41.4 million shares and short interest as of January 31 is 26.6%. Are sales about to go gangbusters? Does Mr. Fly know something neat-o about California clothing retail? One fact: Greek Investments made a $1.55 million investment, buying 350,000 shares recently. That's an average price of 4.43.

During the same time span, Carl Icahn invested $1.16 mil in HAIN, and HAIN shares have been explosive. Maybe if Icahn would invest in PSUN, it would shoot to the moon. A little digging, a little interest, but nothing constructive enough to make me open a position. Well, maybe a teeny one.

The reason I go into the notion of being a cheapskate, spendthrift, haggler, etc. is simple. I am so NOT a haggler. Sure, I look for cheaper prices when I buy groceries or gas. But the lack of extreme cheapskateism probably hurts me more than helps me in trading. Why else did I walk into that AAPL trade yesterday afterhours at 363? Was it buyer's remorse for not entering (as my technicals indicated) at 362.35 early in the day? (It quickly rose to 364.90 before reversing.) Or was I fatigued, impatient and/or bored? It made me think and think and think. If I were truly a tighwad willing to accept ONLY the best price at the best time, how much better off would my trading account be?

So I need to study and adopt more techniques and, more so, the mentality that being cheap involves. I'm not saying being cheap means being stupid or stubborn. But it goes back to the most basic of market mantras: buy low, sell high. I did this to an extent in the past month, but not well enough.

Update, 12:28 pm (Hawaii). SLV up almost 20% since late January, from 26+ to 31. Just can't get bubbly and excited over a position here.

Updated, 2:55 pm (Hawaii). Afterhours market closes in five minutes. Amazing to see PSUN, which was mentioned by Le Fly earlier today, up quite a bit. PSUN closed the session at 4.44, but is now at 4.58. Sure, it's AH and tiny volume, but this is exactly why I don't touch anything flying this high at this time of day. Watching PSUN closely, though. Something might be up, and with such a heavy boat of shorters, it could sink or soar.

Taking a closer look at metals — SLV, EXK, GLD, NGD, even X — though I probably won't touch anything tomorrow (options expiry).

AAPL at 358.50. Twitter search for "Steve Jobs" is getting 15 to 80 new tweets per minute right now. Would love to see a photo of him and the prez at their dinner meeting.

Purely momentus

3:25 am (Hawaii). Is the pit stop already over? In lieu of a real pullback of 5 or 10%, the market is awash in green numbers on my iMac screen. It's stunning, confounding ... I'm all cash and happy to be there, but sans bad news, the market is possibly ready to take flight once again without me.

AAPL is set to gap higher if it holds here at 361.44. A 50% retrace from today's premarket high to 360.74 or so, would've been a nice entry point for a short-term trade, but it wouldn't even come back to 361 even. I may be a whore for this stock, but there's a limit to how much I'll chase. Must maintain a shred of dignity and discipline. Or not.

A gap here could be a runaway freight train, a cliche that invites an image of a perilous crash. Whatever. I just think that above 360 AAPL could run several more dollars higher. Pull back. Run again. Pull back. It's a fund manager's must-have. Who can blame any of them? The world's reigning filthy-rich megastock with a ridiculously low P/E, 75% growth YOY and $59 billion under the matress.

Yesterday, AAPL touched 361 in premarket and never got close after the opening bell. But with 3/4ths of my watch list green, is it reasonable to assume that all of these stocks are being played by the specialists? Don't think so.

What else is green in premarket? VCLK (+12.9%), POT, LVS, NFLX, EGPT, on and on and on. More like, what's not green? That would be HAIN (big run lately), TBT, OPEN, QID, ARMH, VXX, RLOC.

Update, 4:33 am (Hawaii). Missed the 50% retrace of AAPL. Came all the way down to 360.50 or so but I was cautious about such a steep drop after the opening bell. Then it moved back to 361.50-plus within a minute. Volume is definitely there. This may be liftoff, after all.

Update, 5:20 am (Hawaii). AAPL to the moon, now 362.68. Major buying pressure the past 10 minutes, from 361.20 almost nonstop higher. The move came along with positive divergence in MACD. Missed my chance at the opening bell on the 50%-plus retrace from yesterday's close. Oh well ...

Next retrace (50%) entry is 361.35. Not expecting a pullback to that level, but I won't chase.

Update, 5:26 am (Hawaii). 50% retrace would be 361.45 now. HOD is 363.00. Likely was a short squeeze. AAPL longs having a party.

Update, 8:36 am (Hawaii). Somewhere, the angel in charge of stock moves is shaking his head and giggling at me. Really. As I drifted into slumber — hey, it was early morning and even two Red Bulls overnight couldn't keep me up longer — Newton's Law took effect. AAPL came back down to earth after touching 364.90. In fact, AAPL retraced even mote than 50% (of the day's gain) and bottomed at 361.42. (Retrace was nearly 70%.)

Maybe I should've put in a limit buy order, but falling asleep wasn't in my plan and I don't care for hard orders of any kind. Anyway, after hitting that level, AAPL ramped up and rose to 363.44, a gain of $2. In the past hour or so, shares have meandered around 363 and change.

So, I've been in cash all day, amazed by the spike in AAPL, not a penny made. Not a penny lost either. The market remains in the green, but gains are not as broad as they were earlier.

Update, 9:21 am (Hawaii). The two major drops in AAPL (and to an extent, the general market) were at 11:21 am (Eastern) and 12:01 pm (Eastern). There aren't many steady declines in the stock nowadays. It's gradual, no-selling pressure climbs that peak and get sold off violently. Whether they're activated by robots or retail stop-loss orders is not the issue. AAPL is top-heavy, a big dude who can bench press 700 pounds who also has pencil legs and tips over at the slightest breeze of 1-2 mph.

Shares are still up more than 3 bucks for the day (almost 1%). Without a catalyst, the guess here is that late-arriving funds have established their positions since Monday. There's no edge to buying here at 363 as a retail trader unless a final-hour buying spree kicks in. I'll be much more willing if shares get below 362 again.

9:55 am (Hawaii). So, Disney and Apple drawing new lines in the sand today. Disney tells Netflix and Coinstar wholesale rates are going up for its films. Apple making that 30% cut the anchor rate of sorts across its app store. Anyone still think Steve Jobs really isn't working behind the scenes at both companies? His prints are all over this. Good for profit margins at DIS and AAPL.

11:01 am (Hawaii). Opened a position in AAPL before the closing bell. Today's volume (16+ million shares) and the short-term base at 363+ provided an opportunity off the HOD (364.90). Not a perfect entry point (sub 362 was ideal) and shares could trade down to 360 (options expiry in two days). Rumor on Boy Genius Report about Verizon and Apple disappointed with iPhone 4 sales.

12:52 pm (Hawaii). Out of AAPL with a small loss (-2.83/sh). I saw shares dip excessively from 363 to 362 in a flash, then head lower and lower. Finally saw links on Twitter about Steve Jobs being spotted leaving Stanford Cancer Center. Instead of waiting around, I just stepped out of the trade and took the small loss. (Half of 1 percent of bankroll.) Figures that no matter how cautious I am, trying not to hold overnight most of the time, the slightest bit of negative news can send AAPL off a cliff. Soft landing, at least this time. Shares bounced off sub 360 and are now at 361+. Back to 100% cash. Best wishes to Mr. Jobs.

9:59 pm (Hawaii). Free time once again. Nice to see that Steve Jobs is meeting with a bunch of techies and a certain individual named Barack Obama tomorrow night for dinner. Looking back, I don't regret erring on the side of caution and getting out of my AAPL trade. That was no mistake. My concern about the public's perception of Jobs going to the doctor was the only factor, and I was right to get out in case AAPL went off the rails (far lower than 360+.

My position did not give me an edge of any kind. Longs who got in at 50 or 100 easily brushed the Enquirer and Daily News stories off like nothing. But those of us who are trading AAPL now are probably much more sensitive to unexpected news and price movement because our position is far more vulnerable. Therein lies the rub. I chased AAPL afterhours, and in the end, I paid the price. It was an odd set of circumstances, but the crux of it all is it was my own fault. The trade itself didn't cost me much, but the execution and price point were mediocre. There's much to learn from today's trade gone bad. It's not about the dollars. It's about discipline. I'm still learning.

The lack of discipline goes back to the opening bell, when AAPL sold off after gapping up. I had my entry point in mind, but did not follow through. Soon enough, AAPL ran from 361 to almost 365.

Two examples of a lack of discipline. To trade AAPL requires a modicum of faith sprinkled on solid discipine. I need both, really.

Sell Apples, Make Cash

8:16 am (Hawaii). Sold the AAPL position at 358.70 for a 2% (almost) gain over two days. No complaints other than I should've pulled that trigger sooner (yesterday and today). The intra-day lower highs and lower lows (the past couple of hours) convinced me to step out. I'm relieved.

I can breathe a little better rather than wait for the herd to stampede out, though some of them already did above 359. I reserve the right to re-enter later today, maybe around 355-356. Could happen after that mad dash from 356 to 359 (and later 360). Not really expecting a drop today, though. Just wanted to lock in a decent profit, especially since I might fall asleep. These all-nighters are only fun with a profit in the pocket.

Update, 8:58 am (Hawaii). Got out in the nick of time. A few minutes after my sell, AAPL began to cascade over a major cliff. Most AAPL fans knew it was due for a selloff, but it went from 358 to 348 in a span of 17 minutes or so. This is exactly why I insist on trading AAPL short-term only at this point. The long-timers who got their shares at 95 or 200 can rest easy; this is basically a blip. But for traders who entered at these levels (I entered on Tuesday just below 352), sitting through a 10-dollar plunge is useless. Not sure how or why volume was so freaking huge to the downside, but it bounced off 348, came back to 354+, and is now settling at 352+.

Cleared out all the stop loss orders along the way, one more reason why I prefer to have a mental stop instead of relying on anything else. Whoever picked up shares this week with plans to hold it to 500 or 1,000, this is a blip, as well. I'd rather get out and see if I can get a cheaper price.

Update, 9:19 am (Hawaii). Should add that if I seem a bit paranoid about stop-loss orders in a momo situation, it's because I've been burned royally in bear raids before (DNDN).

Update, 10:02 am (Hawaii). Still no clear indication of what caused the early afternoon crash of AAPL.

Philip Elmer-DeWitt: Snapshot of an Apple flash crash

Here, the mini-crash puts a dent right through what had been a robust gain (after shares opened to the downside along with the rest of the market). I lucked out and exited just before that at 358.70. 

The two-day chart shows exactly how oddly AAPL behaved while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ went about the afternoon as if nothing happened. 

AAPL still near its all-time high. Retouching 360 is going to be a challenge after a lengthy run. 

Update, 3:02 pm (Hawaii). Kept an eye on AAPL and the Egypt coverage on TV afterhours, but didn't trade a thing. VXX was somewhat interesting, rising about 30¢ to 28.79 AH after Mubarak told his nation that he ain't resigning yet. Just not worth the move with contango and the way it hits VXX each morning to the downside regardless of externals.

Market finished flat, basically. APPL finished AH at 354.10, down roughly a buck after a flash-crash-like free-fall (see above).

DIS was barely in the red (43.31 AH) after yesterday's huge jump on great earnings. OPEN, ECA, BIDU, TBT, LULU, HAIN, POT and MOS all 1.3% higher or more. NFLX, AMZN, GLD fractionally higher.

Here's an excellent summary of why hardly anyone showed up at the stores for the new Verizon iPhone 4.

Philip Elmer-DeWitt: Why are the Verizon lines so short? 

As I stalk my shares of AAPL ...

The rest of the market is soaring much higher. Not to be greedy, of course, with a $3+ move since yesterday AH. But I look at my growing watch list and DIS is at the top with a 4.2% gain. Mickey Mouse hasn't been atop a space mountain this high since May, 2000. That's some ride down and back up!

Imagine a Disney longtimer who saw his stock options sag monumentously TWICE in the past 11 years. Getting back to even never felt so good.

Other big gainers today: HAIN (Cramer with a big pump yesterday), AMZN +3.7%, SLV +3.1%, NGD +2.9%, EXK +2.7%, LULU +2.7%, RLOC +1.9%, VCLK +1.8%, TBT +1.8% (go figure), FAS +1.3%), OPEN +1.2%, IBM +1.1%, GLD +1.1%.

AAPL trading afterhours at 354.92 after brief spurt to 355.69. BIDU, F, VZ, GOOG, MOS fractionally higher.

In the red: NFLX -0.1%, POT -1.5%.

As for AAPL, I'm 30% tempted to sell for a nice little profit. I'm 20% cautious about another pre-catalyst bad-news lightning bolt (re: MLK Day/Steve Jobs health issue). If Apple has an overnight bad-news announcement, I won't be shocked. Fortunately, the 50% in me that says, "Let the winner run" is prevailing.

2-day

 2-month

10-year: extreme slope up tempts shorts, but 76% growth is monstrous