Showing posts with label Jim Cramer. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jim Cramer. Show all posts

Tuesday, July 12, 2011

Tuesday library & cinema


Vlogs
(new) bigdad06: Second chance for America? (July 12)
(new) BrotherJohnF: Silver Update - Collapse (July 12)
(new) SGTbull07: Bob Chapman: The world financial system will collapse (part 2) (July 12)
The Weekly Telegram: Dollar index illusion and business index journalists (July 12)
endlessmountain: The Silver Log - Debt Ceiling (July 12)
bigdad06: QE3, Pump it! (July 8)


Reports
(new) James Turk: Huge base will propel silver to record highs with gold (July 12)
Wall Street Journal: US stocks end lower after Moody's downgrades Ireland (July 12)
Zero Hedge: 'Some FOMC members think QE3 would be appropriate' (July 12)
(new) James Turk: Something more important than the debt limit (July 12)

Blogs
(new) Robert McGrath: Terror level hit a new high (July 12)
Turd Ferguson: Wising up? (July 12)
Le Fly: Gold is my only option (July 12)

Friday, June 4, 2010

Why I'm feeling titillated today

Breakfast: Sugar-free Red Bull, 16-oz. Almost empty already.

Oil has long been a proxy of sorts for the market. When crude gets beaten down, the market usually follows like a shadow. When crude has a good day, the market is up. Opposite has been true of the dollar. And that's that.

Now, however, oil is down and nat gas is up in the teeth of a hater's market. Dow Jones is down 158, yet UNG is up 1.4%, WPRT is up 2.1%, CHK is up 2.1% and UPL is up 1.3%. Granted, nat gas was hammered in recent years and there is a reasonable argument to be made that the sector has been oversold. I look at the numbers, though, and see that just about all of these companies have underperformed — expectedly so in an anti-nat gas environment. Now that Obama has spoken the magic words — that the Fed will "embrace" clean energy like nat gas, it's a whole new world and these 15 and 19 and 7 percent gains in nat gas plays since Obama's speech at 2 pm Eastern on Wednesday ... may just be the beginning.

I'm not totally sold on nat gas. Apparently, there are serious byproduct issues and a groundswell of opposition. But nat gas is superior to coal at this point on balance, and certainly more golden than oil sands, which strip the environment and ecosystem. Whatever the case is, nat gas is the antidote to nasty crude oil swings, it appears.

Washington, D.C. in the house! Belfast, Ireland! Wow. Herndon, Va.!

Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Wednesday wonders

Some premarket thoughts and ramblings from the middle of the Pacific Ocean...

• Is it just me, or is there a correlation between National Bank of Greece stock (NBG) and the number of riotous footage shown on CNBC and Bloomberg? NBG down to 2.71 premarket with three dead after a fire was set on a Greek bank.

• AAPL down to 253.33 in the face of Fed antitrust scrutiny regarding apps. I don't think a company stipulating certain limitations to app makers constitutes a monopoly, but what I think matters squat. AAPL is about 18 bucks below its high. 256 was its immediate support level. If it its 250 or 249, a hell of a lot of stop-loss sells will kick in. Or it bounces. I have no idea. I like AAPL long term, but I can only bend over and get kicked so many times. If this is a one-week correction, I can bear it. Any longer, and I might add a few more shares way down below...

• IMAX deathly silent in premarket. Not a single share has traded, but the bid and ask are both below yesterday's closing price (19.10).

• BIDU dipping to 686.37 on very limited volume.

• Probably safe to say that FAZ and VXX will leap into green pastures when the bell rings. For one minute, one week ... who knows? FAZ booming to 13.20 premarket (12.52 close) on decent volume (2.9 million shares) and VXX up to 22.58 on minimal volume.
According to Cramer, the market will stop selling off at mid-day, the coast will clear and buying shall commence. Love him or hate him, he went on a limb saying that yesterday.

Being out of dry powder at the wrong time really sucks. I miss the flexibility of cash. There are two reasons to liquidate: 1. prevent further losses and 2. load up ammo for the coming bounce.


Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Cramer: C worth $4

Even $10 if allowed to unwind, but he says that's not likely. Hmm, Cramer plus Faber ... C trading at 2.79 (up 2.5%) while Dow is down 171 points. Oddly delicious.

Friday, April 3, 2009

The Bear is dead?

Still have my Apple withdrawls, but it's getting better.

Instead of trying to micromanage and weave in and out of the market today, I let my trades sit. C, STP and WFC struggled to tread water for a good part of the day. So did the market. But all three wound up positive. C moved from 2.74 to 2.85. STP went from 13.95 down to 12.62 back up to 14.00. WFC from 15.33 to 16.34. No complaints here.

I scribbled down a projection yesterday of a 20% gain for this trio within the next three weeks.

C
2.72 (Apr. 2)
3.26 (Apr. 18, after 1Q earnings)

STP
13.95 (Apr. 2)
16.74 (Apr. 18)

WFC
15.33 (Apr. 2)
18.39 (Apr. 18)

Too optimistic? Maybe. Too pessimistic? Maybe. By the time Citigroup reports, most of the big boys in the financial sector will have reported. I think Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and others will report on the positive -- not perfect -- side of the ledger. I may wind up selling most or all of my C shares before earnings (Apr. 17). But I'm convinced and have been for the past few days that selling at a loss this early would not be prudent. I didn't sell at 2.32 and I'm not selling at 2.85. Ideally, I'll keep a small position after taking profits by the 18th.

Suntech Power really might be strictly for daytrading. Had I sold near 14, I could've bought back in at 13 for the ride back up. This is not going down very much despite the huge rally in the past week. There are 30 billion reasons in China why the nation's top solar company will thrive from the subsidies and stimulus money. Not a tough hold.

WFC? The 'W' could stand for wacky. Stock has made drastic turns up and down between 13 and 17 in the past two weeks. It's just strange to recognize that a bank stock is being played by daytraders, hedge funds, whomever. I'm fine holding these shares. Just might daytrade all or most of the shares, though, with this volatility.

The jobs/unemployment report this morning did have an impact for a half-day. Maybe it bought buyers some time to get in, if Cramer is right and we're in a new bull market. I'm not quite as optimistic, but this is no bear market either. I'll be content to stay long with 25% of my portfolio and use the rest as a trading vehicle.

I still want them Apples.

Thursday, March 26, 2009

Sunny day for solarites

As I slept soundly through the night (and early morning), solar stocks soared through the atmosphere. China's government will subsidize solar energy development at an unprecedented level and pace. Great news, huh? Too bad I was asleep while STP (up 43% today) and the entire sector went nuts.

Would I have jumped in? I dunno. One of the stocks I looked back at jumped huge at the open. Of course, it's being daytraded and will sink in a few days. But there's no question solar stocks have seen their bottom. Yingli (YGE), a former favorite of mine, also took the leap today. But if I had to choose, I'd stick with STP and the top Western solar play, First Solar (FSLR).

Apple jumped to 109 today, leading a tech revolt. The Dow was up big, too. Just about everything was up except financials, which sucks since I'm overweight in Citigroup. It's tempting to unload my C shares here (closed down at 2.82), but the stock has consistently bounced between 2.60 and 3.15 the past few days. I've already sold at 2.56 once (Friday) only to regret that decision by Monday (opened well above 3).

AAPL will do its usual pullback after big gains. It was at 83 just a couple of weeks ago, but the market turnaround and a bunch of cool news about iPhone and iPod developments did the trick. I might take those profits and watch the solars carefully. Then again, if Cramer is right, mutual funds are stampeding back into techs. AAPL's run might be long from over. AAPL back at 200? Wouldn't shock me. Question is, which would double first: Apple or Sunpower Tech? Citigroup or Goldman Sachs?

Aside from China's solar subsidies, the stimulus package there is bullish for all stocks. Baidu could double, even though the government has shackled the country's internet.

Thursday, February 28, 2008

Cramer fired up over satellite radio

I figure my pal Kyle and everyone else who is long XM Satellite Radio would get a kick out of Jim Cramer's rant about the XM-Sirius merger delay.



Photobucket

Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Cramer revisits 1990

Sure, I'll admit it. Cramer was right. If I had approached the market with at least half of positions in pure trade mode instead of buy-and-hold-forever thinking, my account would be much, much healthier. When Cramer called for taking at least some profits off the table when Apple ripped its way above 140 several months ago, I scoffed.

But it wasn't holding or not trading Apple that hurt me. It was the small-cap growth monsters that ran up huge, and then fell off a cliff in the blink of an eye. I coulda, shoulda taken big profits out. I didn't. And with those painful experiences now converted into lessons, I am holding only three stocks, and more than half of my position in RIMM is for swing trading only. Instead of a portfolio of 13 stocks, it is much simpler to manage three. Much quicker and less emotional effect when I'm keeping my attention on just three stocks, and it feels much more fluid.

As of today, Cramer's thinking that we're back in 1990 and that in some ways, the market is bottoming out. Maybe. The past few weeks haven't been too painful for me. I have a lot of confidence in my Apple, RIMM and Nintendo shares, and they've held up quite well lately, even before the rally of Tuesday and today. In my mind, if the market were to crash, I wouldn't hesitate to get out completely, and that kind of thinking is absolutely necessary because we are in an atmosphere unlike any other in the past. My tendency is still to hold through downturns — I rode my swing shares of RIMM from 114 to 106 and back up to the current 121. But I'm becoming more and more comfortable with trading, as opposed to buy and hold, and I'll stay on that track until the U.S. economy regains its bearings.

And that could be years from now. More than likely, Cramer will be more right than wrong during that time.

Friday, November 2, 2007

Crocs faces poachers

By nature, I'm a buy-and-hold investor, but the best thing I've learned from Cramer is that the street owns. If the street wants something, it gets it one way or another, sooner or later. That's why he pushes the profit-taking mantra daily. Take half off if you have a huge profit. He knows and now I know it's been a Trader's Market for a while now, and there's extra money to be made by trading a half-position, 2/3 or 3/4 position, whatever, in your best stocks.

Crocs is a classic example. The street was far behind the common investor on this stock, and the street has been trying to punish us little guys forever (high short interest). Well ... they finally got to us, street gets the last laugh. Bank the short, put cheap CROX shares on the books. Twofold win. Manipulation? What manipulation? The street wouldn't do that, would they?

Of course they would. Legal or otherwise. But there's no crying in investing. Who can be poached by the street when profits are already in the bank? That's why Cramer, in his own way, is absolutely right ... much as I hate to do short-term trading. I'm just glad the bleeding has finally stopped. In 2006, AAPL went from 87 to 53 (July). If Crocs maintains growth rates above 100% and the dollar remains weak, numbers from overseas could surpass anyone's imagination. Maybe an Applelicious type of run ahead. I don't doubt it could happen.

Apple is at 187 today. If Crocs has a similar buying psychology (it doesn't because of immense hatred from bears/shorts) and we have a similar reversal, the sky is still the limit.

Back to Cramer. He implores the masses (his groupies) to take significant profits as quickly and prudently as possible, in effect beating the street whenever there's a run. The street knows this, and takes profits earlier and earlier. We have an accelerating pattern of sells on surges, and thus, mammoth volatility. Cramer did some of us a favor by hating Crocs overnight. Those of us with dry powder.

Remember, he always said the time to sell Crocs would be after it had four big-time analysts following it. Never happened. A string of good news will send shorts covering.

Tuesday, October 9, 2007

Not your ordinary digital TV package

Shares of China Digital TV (STV) hit a high of 49.49 in premarket trading, roughly 25% up from yesterday's close. This follows yesterday's 39% gain. Is there something the Co offers to its subscribers in those 26 provinces that we don't know about? Are customers giving tons of hard cash to the cable guy when he shows up to set up the box and smart card? Is the Playboy Channel secretly stashed among the hundreds of channels and the government doesn't know it yet?

But seriously, the run-up kinda scares me. What goes up so easily can come down just as quickly even though the Co has superb growth rates and real cash in its coffers. Maybe it's just uncomfortable because this stock is taking all the pain out of making money. That would mean that something is really wrong with me!

What's happening may be this: the tiny float (12 million ADRs) plus Cramer's hyper-bullish 'Buy' tag on the stock during yesterday's Mad Money Lightning Round are in effect. It's all highly entertaining, whether I'm long in the stock or not. It's just a heckuva lot more fun to have a few shares.

Monday, October 8, 2007

Cramer: 'China Digital TV is another Baidu'

Amazing. STV refuses to rest.

Lightning Round, Mad Money

Caller Roger in California: "I'm a huge believer in China. They're consuming, consuming, consuming. There's an IPO on Friday, China Digital TV that's been popping. What do you think?"

Cramer: "I gotta tell you, man, you know, I read through the prospectus. I have to admit that this is as good as a Baidu. It's as good as a China Tel. The problem is, is my God! This thing was up — I mean it was up again today! It was up, uh... (checks the computer) It's up another 12, 11 points!! But it does feel like VM Ware, honestly. At 40 bucks, could it add another 20 points? Yeah, it could add that quite easily. It's got that kind of momentum."


STV was at 41 plus when the caller asked about the stock, but it promptly ran more and hit 43 plus after Cramer's summary. Up $15 (55%) today.

CHEEE-HOO!!

Thursday, September 20, 2007

Pumping the lemon

Cramer is pumping LULU right now, likening it to Under Armor and Crocs. This is not just a quick pump. He's devoting an entire segment as he wears a headband and sits on the floor in a faux yoga position. Cramer insists that lululemon athletica is not just a yoga apparel company, but a women's apparel company.

Sounds good to me (the guy who just bought some shares at 38.38 the other day). Now he has LULU's CEO, Bob Meers, on the phone.

"We do not need to be in (big) markets. In fact, we do well in college towns," Meers says. And yet, LULU is about to conquer America, with stores opening in rapid succession.

"They're going to quadruple their number of stores," Cramer squeaks. The CEO is rather deadpan and low-key, not a rah-rah guy. Fine with me. I just hope they reel in Mike Myers as Austin Powers and get him and his posse of babes to do the first lululemon TV commercial.

The stock was at 40 (after hours) even before the segment began, then went to 40.95. TV is a funny thing.

Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Hawaiian energy showdown?

Sorta. Today, Jim Cramer gave a thumbs' up to Hawaiian Electric during the "Lightning Round" on Mad Money.

HECO reported a dismal Q2 recently, and as a resident of Oahu, I'm not surprised. How is any utility here supposed to grow when population growth is stagnant? On the other hand, HECO has a partnership with Hoku Scientific in regard to solar panels. So I wonder, which is the better long-term investment: HECO or HOKU?

My money is literally on HOKU. Just a bit of money. No question, Hoku could swing and miss. Hoku could also knock a series of pitches out of the park come 2009. HECO has limited growth prospects, though it is (finally) trying to venture into alternative energy with a real sense of commitment.

I'll put more cash into my A grade picks any time before HOKU or HECO, but the local angle is compelling for me.

Pupule Paul is slightly long HOKU.

Wednesday, August 8, 2007

UA putting on the squeeze

While Crocs (CROX) moves forward and distances itself step by step from Q2 blowout earnings and raised guidance, the stock continues to consolidate in the mid to high 50s. With the Nasdaq up 42 points (1.6%) today, CROX has pulled back. The stock is down 1.2% to $56.69.

Meanwhile, Under Armor (UA) continues to gain steadily. UA's report annihilated estimates last week and short interest was 50%. Insane. At $67.30, UA is up nearly 5% so far today.

Cramer was right. He called UA a better move in the short term. Depending on how you look at it, though, CROX is still selling at a discount.

Pupule Paul is long CROX and UA.

Tuesday, August 7, 2007

Cramer's rant

For posterity's sake, a last look at Jim Cramer's astonishing rant/meltdown on CNBC on Monday morning. By Tuesday afternoon, Ben Bernanke left the interest rate alone — at 5.25%. By Tuesday evening, Cramer vowed to continue pontificating against the stagnation, completely unapologetic about his rant.

Friday, August 3, 2007

The Mad Pump: LULU

Cramer is pumping lululemon athletica today. Again.

But this time more in depth, calling it "Under Armor in 2004." He could be right, of course, because the growth numbers for LULU are extraordinary. As he put it, the "Under Armor for the New Age crowd." He did advise that this is not the time to buy in. I'm pretty sure buyers will keep buying LULU, which tailed off with the market today, only its second down day since debuting last week.

As long as Cramer pumps LULU on his show, the stock will be vital. Same happened with Spartan Motors (SPAR), a great Co with great numbers that went from $14 (pre-3 for 2 split) to $25. The stock cratered, though, after its growth rate slowed (couldn't get enough new contracts to satisfy the market) and is now trading at $12. Still the same great Co. Just a different mentality from the traders.

LULU is in a different space, downward dog and all. It can grow in its niche, just as UA and CROX do. I just think CROX still has the most widespread effect and potential. I think LULU will be more alluring after the 15-day, no-short period ends and the stock finally levels out, just as most IPOs do. Even Google dropped to $85 awhile after its debut.

Friday, July 27, 2007

Hoku bulls hoping for bottom

Has Hoku Scientific stock finally found a bottom?

After hitting a mid-day high of $14.55 on July 16, HOKU went into a tailspin. Shares have been down in seven of the 10 trading sessions since.

With 3.2 million shares traded, today's action was the biggest volume on an up day since July 13. HOKU reached an intra-day low of $8.30 today before closing at $9.28, up 4.2%. Hoku was in a minority of stocks that were up on another bloody day for the Dow Jones and Nasdaq.

With its polysilicon facility still in need of funding, bears are salivating over the prospect of a failure at Hoku headquarters. With $1.2 billion in contracts on the table to global customers, Hoku bulls see a buying opportunity.

Jim Cramer had his take on HOKU during yesterday's "Lightning Round" on Mad Money. Cramer said the stock is a buy at $6 or $7, noting a definite upside there.

With a float of 11 million, this is not a stock for weak stomachs.

Pupule Paul is a bit long HOKU.

Wednesday, July 25, 2007

Will Cramer 'fess up on dubious Apple call?

On Friday, I wrote about Jim Cramer's "advice" to Mad Money groupies regarding Apple's coming earnings report.

Cramer strongly recommended that Apple longs take some of their positions off the table. He didn't say take out the cost basis. He didn't say, Well, you'll have a 35% cap gains tax to pay. No. He adamantly said, Take some off the table.

What he didn't say is that Apple is a great growth company, perhaps the greatest on Earth. What he didn't say is that Apple's products are superior — not flawless — to any other offering by any other company. Superior. Cooler. Better.

AAPL closed that day (Friday) at $143 with no inkling of bad news ahead. So, when iPhone numbers didn't jive yesterday on AT&T's information, panic selling set in and the stock plummeted to $134. The real longs dug in and held their shares. They were rewarded today, and AAPL hit $150 in extended hours after another brilliant earnings report.

What will Cramer tell his groupies now? That they should've bought back in at $134? That this is a buy at $150?

Will he even dare to tell them that he screwed up on this call, that they would've been FAR better off just holding their shares and avoiding the major cap gains tax? Doubt it. Hey, Cramer does a service for us average Joes with his hour-long daily show and I try not to miss it. The man does hustle his ass off.

But anyone who took his word about Apple was a weak hand to begin with. Fortunately, it won't be too late to get back in AAPL for another nice climb. Next time, the groupies might not be so quick to dump shares on Jimbo's word.

Disclaimer: Pupule Paul is a teeny bit long AAPL.

Saturday, July 21, 2007

Cramer's picks: 4 months later

Continuing on this series of stocks that I began tracking earlier in the year, I found a long list that originated from Mad Money, Jim Cramer's daily show on CNBC.

For a few days in Febuary and March — Feb. 26, March 7 and March 20 to be exact — I jotted down a truckload of stocks that Cramer was bullish on. Now, to be fair, he didn't say that these would be stocks to marry, to love for life. Cramer's a trader, first and foremost, of course. But it's still worth a look back to see how his recommendations have panned out more than four months later.

So, here's a look at 43 stocks that Cramer machine-gunned his way through.

ACI > Then: $32.78. Now: $33.44. Change: +2%
AMGN > Then: $62.30. Now: $56.18. Change: -9.8%
BBI > Then: $6.94. Now: $4.28. Change: -38.3%
BDC > Then: $52.66. Now: $57.41. Change: +9%
CAT > Then: $63.62. Now: $83.20. Change: +30.7%
CHE > Then: $46.05. Now: $66.42. Change: +44.2%
CHTR > Then: $3.22. Now: $4.73. Change: +46.9%
CSCO > Then: $25.96. Now: $29.59. Change: +14%
CSH > Then: $39.80. Now: $37.22. Change: -6.5%
DGX > Then: $51.88. Now: $54.02. Change: +4.1%
DYN > Then: $8.49. Now: $10.38. Change: +22.2%
EBAY > Then: $33.42. Now: $33.53. Change: +0.3%
ECOL > Then: $18.55. Now: $21.24. Change: +14.5%
FSLR > Then: $47.62. Now: $110.14. Change: +131.3%
FWLT > Then: $59.58. Now: $119.28. Change: +100.2%
GIS > Then: $57.23. Now: $58.47. Change: +2.1%
GSF > Then: $56.89. Now: $74.74. Change: +31.4%
GSIC > Then: $20.21. Now: $23.37. Change: +15.6%
GT > Then: $28.40. Now: $34.95. Change: +23%
HPQ > Then: $40.29. Now: $48.54. Change: +20.5%
IACI > Then: $40.74. Now: $33.19. Change: -18.5%
JBLU > Then: $11.97. Now: $11.33. Change: -5.3%
JCP > Then: $79.80. Now: $74.95. Change: -6.1%
K > Then: $49.50. Now: $51.76. Change: +4.5%
KMB > Then: $68.75. Now: $66.56. Change: -3.2%
KO > Then: $47.07. Now: $53.21. Change: +13%
MHS > Then: $67.76. Now: $81.33. Change: +20%
MRVL > Then: $19.86. Now: $19.64. Change: -1.1%
PAY > Then: $37.81. Now: $37.85. Change: +.1%
PEP > Then: $63.69. Now: $64.67. Change: +1.5%
PG > Then: $62.46. Now: $62.15. Change: -.5%
PRU > Then: $92.37. Now: $94.63. Change: +2.4%
Q > Then: $8.74. Now: $9.42. Change: +7.8%
RIG > Then: $78.19. Now: $109.97. Change: +40.6%
SUNW > Then: $6.27. Now: $5.33. Change: -15%
TIN > Then: $58.72. Now: $64.35. Change: +9.6%
VDSI > Then: $18.00. Now: $25.06. Change: +39.2%
VIA.B > Then: $39.25. Now: $41.22. Change: +5%
XTO > Then: $52.10. Now: $60.77. Change: +16.6%
YHOO > Then: $32.12. Now: $25.35. Change: -21.1%

Cramer's best pick? First Solar (FSLR), up 131%. Other top performers for Cramer on this list are: Foster Wheeler (FWLT), up 100%; Charter Communications (CHTR), up 46% and Chemed (CHE), which is up 44%.

All in all, 31 of the 43 picks are up, a hit rate of 72 percent. Bull market or not, that's respectable.

Friday, July 20, 2007

Will Jim Cramer pay your cap gain tax on AAPL?

Jim Cramer had something perplexing to say today about Apple Inc.

Cramer adamantly encouraged his groupies to sell AAPL ahead of earnings. The rationale is that the market is on a tightrope and it's better to sell ahead of the inevitable pullback. Take profits, pay the tax and move on. Sounds good on the surface.

But really, Apple has been as constant and bullish as any stock. Since hitting the low $50s last summer, AAPL has run up and pulled back to a measly $143 as of today. Is Cramer right to have investors attempt to time the market? Does he even believe in investing? The answers are no and no. He believes in trading. Everything's a trade.

Even though though Cramer has a lot of sensibilities that work for many retail investors, is it really sensible to advise them to sell, get hit with a big tax, only to re-enter with a 10- or 15-percent pullback, if that? I could see selling a quarter of half of a position in Apple if there were big question marks about growth. But if you do the math, AAPL longs are quite possibly better off adding a small number of shares on any pullback this month rather than slicing them.

There's merit to taking profits, no question. But calling for an automatic sell just because ... well — just because Mr. Booyah says so — makes no sense when the numbers don't add up. Sell now, pay big tax. Don't sell for another year, pay a significantly smaller tax.

With most stocks, I think that rule of thumb certainly applies. Sell the cost basis. Play with house money. But this is Apple, and Cramer's logic applies more to a street trader than us average Joes. After all, when a hedge fund or mutual fund makes a trade, there's no cost to them. It just gets passed along.

When the average Joe jumps in and out of stocks, he gets stuck with commissions. When it comes to AAPL, the rule is nonsensical.

Disclaimer: Pupule Paul is slightly long AAPL.