Not quite minus squared

9:37 am (Hawaii) Market is down (Dow -99.83/-0.8%, Nas -31.77/-1.2%, S&P -13.09/-1.0%), but it's not convincing of an onrushing disaster, either. Dollar is up 6/10th of a percentage point, crude oil down again (SCO up 1%). The Metals list is 27% green, 73% red with a majority on the plus side being bear plays. But the key is low volume up and down. Maybe it's a respite of sorts and Monday begins a bloodbath. Or maybe this market will remain choppy, indignant and petulant.

ZSL is up 5.3% to 19.46. DUST, QID, gold bears GLL and DZZ are among the leaders on the list. REE, MCP and AVL have kept rare earths near the top.

Meanwhile, the finnies faded. Three were in the green in the opening minutes today, but now all are in the red. NBG, which got up to 1.43 yesterday on the positive news of austerity psuedo-measures, is down 7% to 1.32. Pulling back is no surprise, but I thought there might be continued momentum after profit-taking. It's tough to make it when you're a bankster.

Silver plays are getting minced again, not a shock. AGQ down 5.4% to 161.54, EXK (-5.2%), SLW (-4.3%), PAAS (-3%), GPL (-4.5%), SVM (-5.1%) are among the bruised silver miners. XG (-2%), NUGT (-5.3%), GG (-3.7%), GDXJ (-3.1%), DGP (-3%) are among the gold plays getting stomped. DGP's descent is unusual; it's normally not a big mover up or down. It's my lone play, a small position, and Spot Gold has room to fall, maybe to 1450. Not fun, but the puppet masters will do what they deem necessary to justify implementation of the next bailout/quantitative easing/big lie.

My Regular watch list is 26% green, 74% red. AAPL is down 1.6% to 325.95. TVIX (+7.5%) and VXX (+3.7%) are up big, as is QID (+3.5%). No buyers, and it seems some hedge funds have emptied out. It's nice to rest easy on summer vacation.

It gets interesting on the Regular list. CMG (+1.1%), RLOC (+0.8%), CSTR (+0.3%) are up. Then it's red, red, red, red ...

Terrifying Tuesday

8 am (Hawaii) Isn't it odd that the root of terror is also the root for terrific? Terra, terra, terra. Tora, tora, tora. I woke up a half-hour ago and enjoyed a local morning chit-chat show. I admired the flow of news, stuff about traffic (slow as molasses) and enjoyed the fact that I am not sitting in it.

Switching over to CNBC and seeing the Dow down more than 100 points also made me grateful to be out of this bitchy market. I can watch the flow of traffic and stay far away, getting my beauty sleep. While geniuses like Le Fly continue to pound the table for oil refiners (crack spread is now over $26), it is always intriguing to see lifers like Cramer acknowledge (early in the week) that though there are numbers on the bullish side, he was staying clear out of this market. Hate Cramer all you like, but when he gets word from the Street that shit is about to hit the fan, he usually shares the information.

As always, the dude who bought truckloads of AAPL at 12 is relaxed and sleeping until noon, for he has not a worry in the world. The rest of us need to be nimble and astute.

Update 8:18 am (Hawaii) My watch list is 31% green, 69% red. Not as extreme as yesterday (20% red). AAPL has stabilized at 330 and stands at 332.46 (+0.5%). This is clearly not showing signs of an all-out collapse. The machines are still buying MWW (+3.6%), CMG (+2.9%), HGSI (+2.8%), NFLX (+2.1%), GMCR (+1.8%).

Crude oil continues its pullback. UCO is down 5.6% to 56.41. EXK is down 4% (10.94) after lifting above 12 recently. WNR, the oil refiner I Should Have Entered, is up nearly 1% (17.30) thanks to those increasing (aforementioned) crack spreads. Sure, the few stocks that are up could join the selloff before the close in 100 minutes.

QID, TZA, the usual bear plays in skittish markets are doing okay. But they often break down when a catalyst arrives. Earnings season is here. The bear play could turn into a bear trap.

I'll stay away from the forest and leave the trapping to professionals. Still 100% cash.

Update 8:36 am (Hawaii) Taking a closer look at WNR. If crude continues to fall but crack spreads stay up (or get higher, as is the case in recent weeks), somebody's going to eventually make money when the selloff is over. If not for today's pullback, WNR would not be up just 1%. It would be 3-4%, my guess. 

WNR doubled from below 9 to 18 between mid-December and mid-February. That's why this pullback to 17ish is not a big deal long term. Demand for energy will grow as summer nears. Japan needs to import more than ever. America is willing to pay $4/gallon, it appears, but chaos will ensue if it gets near $5 for any duration. As long as business owners are willing to figure $4 gas into the equation, it is possible the economy can continue to recover. Therein lies the rub. Most CEOs and mom-and-pop operators will look to slash costs. The current climate is exactly why they refrained from hiring en masse in the past year. 

But all in all, WNR is very appealing here. I refuse to play the crack spread. Human psychology matters more, and so far, the populace is content to let crack spreads spiral into deep space without a current correlation to refiner stock prices. For now. 

Fantastical Friday

Gold up. Silver up. Oil up. Stocks up. Everything (almost) is up, and mostly up big with less than 20 minutes left in the session.

I haven't made a trade since Tuesday early morning (premarket). I don't feel satisfied, but I don't feel greedy, either. Good place. Still feeling the ailment, still achy and headachy and it sucks. When I woke up, the market was already 90 minutes in (almost 6 am Hawaii time) and everything was green. I've had some long naps since and there is simply an abundance of buyers and a shortage of sellers. Who would've figured that for a Friday. It's almost like a parallel universe, or an opposite world. Instead of the sell-into-strength tendencies of Fridays, it's almost a fantasy.

The first price that had my eyeballs boinging out of my cranium was UCO, which was listed at more than 300% up. I was drowsy when I saw that and immediately thought, 1) must be a typo, and 2) it's not a typo, so maybe Libya just got turned into dust. Holy crude! But no, it's a reverse split in UCO, the one I'd heard about earlier in the week. QID also did a reverse split.

But generally, the top of my watch list is ruled by silver entities. EXK (+5.1%), SLW (+5%), SLV (+4.1%), PAAS (+3.7%). AAPL, BIDU, other momo names like CMG and LULU all up roughly 1% or more. But on the red side, CSTR and NFLX can't get out of the hole. Even AMZN is fractionally down; as the No. 1 contender to usurp NFLX's throne in streaming movies, AMZN should be rolling today, right?

VXX and TVIX are the bottom of my list. Did they actually stop bombing unarmed protestors in Libya today. If so, how can oil stocks still be above water for the day. Weird. Fantastical. Everybody (but the shorts) is happy.

The only negative? Volume is low.

Turnaround Thursday

10:03 am (Hawaii). Got up an hour ago and the market has bounced back moderately. Manufacturing numbers out of Philadelphia, CNBC says, were the catalyst.

AAPL still hovering at 358, but metals continue to rock. SLV (+3.5%) and EXK (2.3%) are up big thanks to chaos in the Middle East (Day of Rage). SLV up almost in a straight line since January 26.

VXX (+1.4%) still up. Won't be touching that due to overnight contango effect.

LVS is up again (1.2%), now 48.82. I remember it trading to the low 46s after its earnings report two weeks ago. AMZN, VZ, CMG all up.

AAPL was actually at the bottom red end of my watch list early in the session, but has been replaced by RLOC and GMCR (-4.5%).

I've come to accept that the protests and rioting of the Middle East have become a combined catalyst that will not cease for weeks, if not months. That makes oil, gold and silver prominent, almost on par with a former "safe haven" like AAPL. Not interested in chasing SLV here, but I'll stay tuned for the next news event. Will there be another Day of Rage? Of course. People there are pissed.

EXK has traded in a range of roughly 5.50 to 7.50 for since November. At 7.20, it may be ready to break out. I wrote last year that speculators and traders had pointed out silver as an unappreciated vehicle, that there was massive hoarding going on. Whether that's true or ever was, the extremes of the past few months in the price are a great opportunity. EXK has a  float of 68.6 million shares and miniscule debt ($337K). The numbers are positive up and down, but this is a tiny company ($82.3 million revenue). At 5.50, a great buy in this environment. At 7 plus, watch out. Is it worth the risk? Will the rubber band yank it back when it touches 7.50?

SLV is also almost too hot to touch by most indicators. Traded between 26 and 30.50 since November and today is at a threshold (31) on increased volume. Tempting. I've always liked physical silver — looking at it more than owning it — so the appreciation of the metal is something to handle. As a piece of paper, it will always be a risk. Any government can seize paper assets of metals. It's happened before (long ago). But right now, SLV and EXK are alluring.

AAPL might be a great buy here at 357, but even without any Steve Jobs health issue, it always has pullbacks after earnings. I'm not willing to park into a position and wait for a catalyst. I'm willing to wait for a great price. But clearly, this is not just about Steve Jobs or app subscriptions. It's also about our personal issues with diseases like cancer. If we're comfortable enough with how the disease is treated, how it has affected our families and how we've dealt with it, the media circus around Mr. Jobs matters less. But there are still many traders and investors with panic buttons when it comes to anything negative or perceived as negative about the CEO. 

One nice healthy photo of Mr. Jobs and Mr. Obama tonight could set shares on fire again. 

NFLX, LULU and other momo movers are fun if you can take the heat. I prefer something cooler with a P/E I can trust. Doesn't mean I won't touch momos. But I know my preference and I'll work with it.

Phil Town know his bidness

He's right about the scam of almost all mutual funds. He's also right about basic, no-frills investing in the best growth stocks.

#25 Chipotle Mexican Grill

A review of my Top 25 stocks. It's been awhile and the market has been happy. Recession? What recession? I can't pretend to understand a bit of it. But it's always interesting to look at the chart anyway.


If anyone doubts that the U.S. economy is in a recession, this chart says otherwise. I don't know Chipotle Mexican Grill from Chili's, but it doesn't matter. That gap down in the past week is very not good for longs.

Top 25: #16 Chipotle Mexican Grill

CMG hit 103 a few days ago. What a stinkin' conspiracy. Could Chipotle disappoint the street with the next earnings report? Of course. But I doubt it will disappoint. Hovering just above its 200-day SMA, CMG could be a steal here.

Top 25: #16 Chipotle Mexican Grill

Damn, they're bouncing CMG off the concrete floor and hammering a stake through it. Can CMG brass overcome a recession? Lesser miracles have happened.

Top 25: #16 Chipotle Mexican Grill

CMG 120.38 +5.31 (+4.6%)
50-day SMA: 132.88 | 100-day SMA: 127.72 | 200-day SMA: 107.18
Chipotle Mexican Grill ended a string of four down days with slightly increased volume. They have yet to fail with an earnings report so far.

The Starbucks Response

This guy offers 10 potential responses that Starbucks can give to McDonald's in wake of this all-out war (from Mickey D).

Here's my suggestion to Starbucks: merge with Chipotle Mexican Grill. Ha!

Pupule portfolio

The market is beyond ridiculous now. Bear market? Or just a sharp correction? Whatever the case, here are more additions to the faux portfolio.

AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

AAPL | in at 177.64 (11 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

AAPL | in at 171.25 (18 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
BIDU | in at 344.31 (6 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

BIDU | in at 345.21 (9 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

CEO | in 167.22 (60 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07



CHL | in at 84.65 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
CHL | in at 85.44 (23 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08

CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
CHL | in at 85.22 (47 shares) | 40% of position | 1/7/08



CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
CMG | in at 123.98 (16 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

CMG | in at 117.87 (25 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

EBAY | in at 32.49 (30 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08

EBAY | in at 32.84 (61 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08

EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
EBAY | in at 30.44 (131 shares) 40% of position | 1/7/08

FLS | in at 90.50 (11 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08

FLS | in at 90.45 (22 shares) | 20% of position | 1/8/08

FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
FMCN | in at 56.14 (36 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

FMCN | in at 56.20 (54 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

FWLT | in at 149.94 (7 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08

FWLT | in at 143.49 (14 shares) | 20% of position | 1/8/08





GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
GOOG | in at 649.25 (3 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

GOOG | in at 631.68 (5 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

GS | in 214.32 (47 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07

ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
ISRG | in at 299.98 (7 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

ISRG | in at 271.73 (11 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

LFC | in 80.70 (124 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07



LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
LULU | in at 38.45 (52 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

LULU | in at 36.93 (81 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08



MCD | in at 57.93 (17 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08

MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
MCD | in at 58.03 (52 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08

MCD | in at 57.08 (70 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08



MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
MSFT | in at 34.61 (58 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

MSFT | in at 33.45 (90 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08



NKE | in at 62.71 (16 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08

NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
NKE | in at 62.11 (48 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08

NKE | in at 61.83 (65 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08

NTDOY.PK | in at 67.00 (15 shares) | 10% of position | 1/8/08

PTR | in 181.72 (55 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07



RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
RIMM | in at 99.83 (20 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

RIMM | in at 96.44 (31 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

VMW | in at 83.95 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
VMW | in at 72.99 (41 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08

VMW | in at 74.50 (53 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08

Bargains?

These are the stocks among my Top 25 that are trading below their 100-day simple moving averages.

Chipotle Mexican Grill

















eBay

















Goldman Sachs

















China Life Insurance

















lululemon athletica

















PetroChina

















Research in Motion

















VMware

Pupule portfolio

Includes new additions to the faux portfolio

AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

CEO | in $167.22 (60 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07

CHL | in at $84.65 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
CHL | in at 85.44 (23 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08

CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

EBAY | in at $32.49 (30 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
EBAY | in at 32.84 (61 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08

FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

GS | in $214.32 (47 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07

ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

LFC | in $80.70 (124 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07

LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

MCD | in at 57.93 (17 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08

MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

NKE | in at 62.71 (16 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08

PTR | in $181.72 (55 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07

RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

VMW | in at 83.95 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08

Pupule portfolio

Friday, Jan. 4 additions to the faux portfolio
AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08

Ins and Outs

Jon Najarian says the Fed must act, but even if the Fed were to slash rates, wouldn't they take their sweet ol' time as usual? That's why papertrading is no substitute for the real deal. With my Ins and Outs of the Top 25, it's easy to say, 'Yup, dive in on the cheap stocks today.' It's tempting only in real life. On paper, easily done. AAPL at 180? Deal. RIMM at 103? In.

Worst-case scenario: Fed refuses to act until its end-of-January meeting (if it acts) and the market crashes. Best-case scenario: Fed makes a bold move, earnings reports (which begin on Monday) are more bullish than expected. Market rises.

How bearish has the market become? Last week, only eight of my Top 25 were below their 50-day simple moving averages. yesterday, the number increased to 12. Today? Eighteen. Those of us in cash will reign.

1. AAPL 180.05 -14.88 (-7.6%) | 50-day SMA: 183.26 | 100-day SMA: 164.98
Big money got out of the big growth stocks today. AAPL is below its 50-day SMA for the first time since mid-November. Volume was the biggest since that period, too. MacWorld is around the corner. Inch in.
2. GOOG 657.00 -28.33 (-4.1%) | 50-day SMA: 684.78 | 100-day SMA: 621.23
Interesting price point here. Inch in is fine with an eye on a dip to the 100-day SMA (621). If GOOG falls through 621, it's a horror film in real life.
3. RIMM 103.35 -9.47 (-8.4%) | 50-day SMA: 112.82 | 100-day SMA: 103.10
Unlike AAPL and GOOG, volume in RIMM today wasn't as extreme. That doesn't give RIMM long any semblance of comfort. How can RIMM fall below its pre-earnings price? RIMM blitzed estimate and raised guidance. The patient will be rewarded. When the market recovers, RIMM will be among the rally leaders. Price is nice here to start inching in.
4. ISRG 305.00 -16.75 (-5.2%) | 50-day SMA: 313.95 | 100-day SMA: 271.47
Amazing. ISRG was so far above its moving averages just days ago, and now it's below its 50-day SMA. Inch in, though I think it may pull back to 275 if the Fed does nothing.
5. NTDOY.PK n/a

6. POT 142.65 -4.23 (-2.9%) | 50-day SMA: 123.57
Potash is almost immune to market turbulence and it's not the only fertilizer stock rocking the free world. Too pricey still.
7. CHL 83.88 -1.56 (-1.8%) | 50-day SMA: 89.83 | 100-day SMA: 81.82
Bears are in charge of this great stock. Four of the last six sessions have been down for China Mobile, and those four trading days had big volume compared to the up sessions. I'd continue to inch in here with an eye on 80 as a key support level.
8. PTR 176.00 +5.36 (+3.1%) | 50-day SMA: 199.40 | 100-day SMA: 184.71 | 200-day SMA: 157.72
PetroChina was due for a rally, and with crude oil hovering near $100/barrel, why not now? I started inching into PTR in the Pupule portfolio recently and will continue to do so at these levels. The world will always need oil. China needs oil. OK, maybe alternative energy becomes substantial within five years. That's plenty of time for PTR to run.
9. FSLR 245.58 -20.29 (-7.6%) | 50-day SMA: 215.47 | 100-day SMA: 163.93
Finally, a gap down, and yet, First Solar is miles from any kind of a fair price. Wait.
10. MCD 57.05 -0.88 (-1.5%) | 50-day SMA: 58.61 | 100-day SMA: 55.15
A pullback like this in McDonald's is absolutely stupid. Now 11% down from its recent high, MCD is still selling a ton of latte, a ton of snack wraps (kids love 'em) and basically stealing customers from Starbucks. (A Mickey D and Starbucks were built next to each other recently in Honolulu. Guess which one is always packed and which one is half-empty?) The "Dollar Menu" at McDonald's is BUILT for recessions. Certainly worth inching in here.

11. STP 81.84 -6.38 (-7.2%) | 50-day SMA: 71.64
Buy here? Fuggedaboudit. Today's pullback is a speck of dust compared to this insane run from 45. Wait.
12. CMG 127.01 -14.69 (-10.4%) | 50-day SMA: 135.77 | 100-day SMA: 124.02
Chipotle Mexican Grill is getting cheaper and cheaper. This is a nice price to inch in, but will consumers opt to buy fast, healthy Mexican food rather than the dollar menu at Mickey D's?
13. BIDU 361.00 -14.09 (-3.7%) | 50-day SMA: 367.50 | 100-day SMA: 313.93
After five down days in a row, Baidu is worth inching in here. Still easily capable of falling to support level at 300.
14. FWLT 159.69 -9.48 (-5.6%) | 50-day SMA: 150.46
Recession proof? Possibly. But this price is still too high.
15. FLS 93.20 -2.95 (-3.1%) | 50-day SMA: 91.71
Another stock that thrives in global growth, but pricey here. Wait.

16. FMCN 55.71 -3.27 (-5.5%) | 50-day SMA: 57.00 | 100-day SMA: 52.83
Down big on moderate volume, worth inching in here.
17. GS 199.93 -4.91 (-2.4%) | 50-day SMA: 218.79 | 100-day SMA: 209.50 | 200-day SMA: 212.21
Goldman Sachs is king and emperor of the financials, the Godfather of Greenbacks. And yet, the stock is on thin ice right here; 200 is a key support level. If GS falls through, next stop is 180, and then 160. Inching in is a good idea, but don't dive head first.
18. NKE 61.74 -0.97 (-1.5%) | 50-day SMA: 64.06 | 100-day SMA: 60.86
Fair price, almost good. Six down days in a row, but I like the growing international exposure (China) and commitment.
19. CEO 170.50 +0.66 (+0.4%) | 50-day SMA: 176.57 | 100-day SMA: 159.95
Like PetroChina, CNOOC Ltd. is a state-owned entity in the Middle Kingdom. I missed the boat on CEO twice: once at 91, later at 111. With the latter, the P/E was only 12. Then it ran to 215. Here, CEO is still a fair price, but I'd inch in only. The stock has run up with increasing volume for two days and could be due for a pullback.
20. VMW 80.49 -3.46 (-4.1%) | 50-day SMA: 94.54 | 100-day SMA: 87.04
Dead money for a few weeks now unless you're a short. Nice price for a near-term trade, though. Inching in for the Pupule portfolio with an eye on support at 71.

21. LULU 40.54 -4.22 (-9.4%) | 50-day SMA: 43.95 | 100-day SMA: 42.03
Today's hellacious jobs report casts a bad omen for retailers. Pricey yoga pants ($100/pair) aren't a big priority if and when we head into a recession. But I do think that lululemon athletica's core customers are not affected by layoffs in the financial and homebuilding sectors. LULU's customers will continue to work out, and they will show off the results by purchasing lululemon pants. Women 18-35 will keep on keepin' on. They will keep spending. It's the vanity factor. It works well.
22. MSFT 34.38 -0.99 (-2.8%) | 50-day SMA: 34.65 | 100-day SMA: 31.86
The Halo effect is done. What drives Mister Softee from here? As Sgt. Schultz often said, "I see nothing!" Scaling in here for a near-term trade on the Pupule portfolio.
23. AMZN 88.79 -6.42 (-6.7%) | 50-day SMA: 87.82 | 100-day SMA: 87.19
Another stock, like RIMM, that will lead a market rally if the Fed cuts. Amazon bluntly told the world that unlike other struggling online retailers, its sales were quite fine, thank you. Price is better, but not quite good yet. Wait.
24. EBAY 31.30 -1.54 (-4.7%) | 50-day SMA: 33.51 | 100-day SMA: 35.19 | 200-day SMA: 34.20
If the country is heading for a recession, it will be the eBays of the world that will benefit. Still, the stock took a hit today. Inching in on the Pupule portfolio.
25. LFC 73.00 -1.64 (-2.2%) | 50-day SMA: 83.99 | 100-day SMA: 81.68 | 200-day SMA: 66.44
Does anyone really think life insurance won't work in China? This is a land, as I've mentioned before, where ancestor worship was once the rule. As the middle-agers accumulate wealth, they will put their hard-earned money into life insurance while the younger generation plays the stock market.

On the cusp: Taking a close look this weekend at Costco and Altria as additions to the Top 25.

No. 12 Chipotle Mexican Grill: Hot year indeed

I've never eaten in a Chipotle Mexican Grill. There isn't a location here in Hawaii and I rarely travel outside the state. But there's no denying that CMG has found ways to produce major numbers while catering to the health-minded consumer. The stock, meanwhile, is completely off the hook.



















Pupule's Top 25 (Dec. 25)

Up, down, all around since August bottom

I formed a mock portfolio a few months back, not long after realizing that Aug. 16 was the bottom of the initial subprime mortage fiasco. Now, more than three months later, it's easy to see whether the current market is really doing as horribly as the media presents. So here's what I found, comparing the intra-day low of Aug. 16 versus Wedneday's closing prices.

Then versus Now

Apple: then 111, now 168, +50.9%
Amazon: then 70, now 79, +13.8%
Crocs: then 44, now 38, -12.1%
Garmin: then 86, now 91, +5.5%
Research in Motion: then 61, now 111, +80.4%
Baidu: then 161, now 307, +91.2%
CNOOC: then 92, now 159, +71.9%
Chipotle Mexican Grill: then 92, now 123, +34.1%
Flowserve: then 62, now 90, +45.6%
Google: then 480, now 660, +37.5%
Blue Nile: then 71, now 74, +4.4%
Nintendo: then 52, now 69, +33.9%
Under Armor: then 54, now 46, -14.1%

As a whole, with an evenly weighted investment in each of these stocks, they would be 34.1% in the positive. Even with the horrendous selloff of the past two weeks, 34% up isn't bad at all for three months of holding. Doesn't mean I'm going to return to a buy-and-never-sell practice, but the numbers appear to be more healthy than I had imagined. Far more.

Bargain hunting in a nervous market

What is great? What is cheap? Phil Town did it his way, the way he learned from a mentor: buy great companies on the cheap. Of course, we all have different definitions of "great," but we probably can agree on cheap. For me, a bargain has less to do with P/E and more to do with discount, particularly of a growth stock. So, with those notions in mind, here's a look at what's on sale. Or not.

Apple 191.79
On paper: Back in the 90s, 120s and 130s, the stock had longs feeling impatient. After all, when AAPL hit an all-time high of 85, it promptly sunk into the 50s and took 10 months to return to the 80s. That's one hell of a wait. But since breaking out of the 90s with initial news of the newfangled iPhone, the stock has been on a tear. A double in six months is something magnificent. The stock has traded above its 10-day moving averages almost all the time since August.
The skinny: holiday season is upon us, but it is still more than two months until the next earnings report. Can AAPL continue to ramp up without news?
Of course, the best and simplest approach is to buy and hold. My faux buy-Apple-only (monthly) portfolio is nothing but green, green, green.
Pupule says: As much as I love the company and the products, I will wait.

Google 741.79
On paper: Screw paper. This is a "holy shit" stock and has been since mid-September, when GOOG traded at 520. The stock is well above its 10-day moving averages. There is not much to be said for a stock that has traded up nearly every day for two months. The news keeps coming out, good, great and peerless.
The skinny: The good news won't be endless, and there will be a pullback sooner or later. Then again, this stock sat at 460-500 for such a long time that those of us who passed on GOOG (me) deserve to suffer as fans on the sidelines.
Pupule says: Wait. Do not chase.

Intuitive Surgical 317.07
On paper: This was below 140 three months ago. Holy crud. The stock is trading below its 10-day SMA (320.79), but above its 10-day EMA (311.38).
The skinny: Cramer helped move the stock with his "buy-buy-buy!" directive a couple of weeks ago. Until major buying volume returns, ISRG is too hot to handle.
Pupule says: Wait.

Research in Motion 131.64
On paper: Upgrades and hype, like Citigroup's new label as the "best stock of 2008" don't hurt. The stock is far above its moving averages.
The skinny: RIMM is one of the very few stocks I feel comfortable viewing as a long-term hold. It is also a stock that moves in boxes (re: Nicolas Darvas), which makes it attractive as a trading vehicle.
Pupule says: Until there is a kryptonite for RIMM, it is almost a "can't lose" stock. Still, best to wait until it comes down below its moving averages, hopefully some time in this decade.

Baidu 407.70
On paper: Far above its moving averages. Frothy.
The skinny: No news to lift it any further. BIDU has gone straight up from 310 to 430 (Tuesday) without a breather.
Pupule says: Wait, wait, wait.

China Life Insurance 92.98
On paper: The China selloff hit LFC in a nice way. At 92, it is trading at the same levels it did at the end of September. A bargain? Relatively, yes, for a stock that has doubled in six months. Trades well below its 10-day EMA (95.78) and SMA (97.16).
The skinny: I always thought of LFC as a "safe" play but had no idea it would explode. All of the more sedate sectors seem to explode in China thanks to the influx of new arrivals to the growing middle class. Family-oriented societies are going to invest in life insurance, no ifs, ands or buts.
Pupule says: A fair buy here. Still down 13% from it's all-time high.

China Mobile 92.06
On paper: stock hit 104 on Oct. 29, more than double since Aug. 16. The recent selloff brought the stock below 90, and it had a moderate comeback on Tuesday to 92. Still below its 10-day averages (EMA 95.26, SMA 98.01). Nowhere close to its 50-day EMA (83.78) and SMA (81.96).
The skinny: The stock has bounced off every gap down since the August low.
Pupule says: Yeah, I got out at 87 the other day, but this a classic red chip stock on sale — 16% off its high. Buy.

Chipotle Mexican Grill 131.88
On paper: CMG is down from its all-time high of 141, now touching its 10-day EMA (131.71) and under its 10-day SMA (132.31).
The skinny: The stock has run to two new highs in the past month, but volume really kicked up on the second leg up. Is there another leg left? Dunno.
Pupule says: Wait. Yesterday's volume was very weak, and it's a big if whether there are still more buyers out there than sellers.

CNOOC Ltd. 190.03
On paper: After hitting 218 on Halloween, CEO has sold off and now trades below its 10-day moving averages.
The skinny: Crude is at its all-time highs, which means the weakness in the stock right now is not a happy signal. After doubling in less than three months, the stock could be in for a long stretch of consolidation.
Pupule says: I loved this stock in the 90s, but didn't have the foresight to buy at a P/E of 11. Anyone with insights about this stock, please chime in.

PetroChina 229.42
On paper: Like CNOOC, PetroChina has tumbled as quickly as it spiked. After running from 190 to 266 in just five sessions (mid-October), PTR went stagnant, then dropped on Monday. It trades below its 10-day moving averages (EMA 239, SMA 244).
The skinny: Do you trust a state-owned sector leader that is charged with geopolitical undercurrents? If so, then this is your cup of tea.
Pupule says: The price screams buy. Buying PTR and/or CEO almost feels (I imagine) like buying a piece of the mob. They won't be defeated, and you'll never really get a clean look at their books. I'm not picky that way. I wish I'd been long PTR and CEO all along.

VMware 110.04
On paper: After debuting at 50 in mid-August, the stock has risen as high as 150%. VMW is down 12% from its high of 125, now below its 10-day EMA (112.89). Four down days in a row with shrinking volume is a good sign for longs.
The skinny: Virtualization. Dominance. Most likely to succeed? Probably.
Pupule says: For VMW groupies, this is clearly a buy. For bargain hunters, worth waiting more. At 110, the stock is at a pivotal point. Market gyrations could give us a cheaper price. Those of us who pass on VMW will be lamenting our ineptitude when it hits 300 in one year. Just my little guesstimate.

Chipotle stuffs the shorts again

In case you missed it: Chipotle Mexican Grill again served up a hearty plate of huge growth yesterday. Moving CMG up from A- to A, with a side dish of caution due to the forecast of increasing food costs. But this Co, no question about it, is kicking tail and then roasting it, too. Organic tail, that is.

Chipotle Dishes Out Another Big Quarter: Net Up 72%, Sales 36%, Beating Views

Tasty rewards in Chipotle Mexican Grill

Time for a main entree at Chipotle Mexican Grill? Maybe not. Sure, Cramer spent a good 2 or 3 minutes pontificating about the need to sell CMG now, but that's based on ... what? He wants profit-taking to ensue, more than anything.

Sure enough, the stock has dropped 10% since Cramer's sermon, and the stock is well below its 10-day SMA (126). In fact, at one point on Friday, CMG traded below 115. After going up in a straight line since early September, the stop losses and profit-taking are expected.

Pupule says: Buy. This A- stock needs to take a pit stop, breathe and consolidate. Though it's below its 10-day SMA, the gap is huge. Support is at 110 if you can wait for more retreating.