Monday, October 31, 2011

Monday cinema & library

Every now and then I visit American Bulls for their take on the market. Here's what their candlestick analysis looks like as of Oct 31.

FXP - Buy confirmed
FCX - Sell if
FAS - Sell if
MF - Wait
BAC - Wait
NBG - Sell if
STD - Wait
JPM - Sell if
GS - Sell if
GLD - Sell Confirmed
DGP - Sell Confirmed
SLV - Sell if
AGQ - Hold
UUP - Buy Confirmed
FAZ - Buy Confirmed
EUO - Buy Confirmed
SPY - Sell if
AAPL - Hold
NFLX - Wait
CSTR - Wait
LULU - Sell if
GOOG - Hold
BIDU - Hold
GMCR - Sell if

Reggie Middleton: The ironic, prophetic nature of MF Global bankruptcy (Oct 31)
Le Fly: Haunted banks (Oct 31)

endlessmountain: Accounting, gold and silver (Oct 31)
endlessmountain: JPMorgan to silver price ratio (Oct 31)
James Turk: Guest Adam Fergusson (Oct 31)
Hit the Bid: End of days with Daytrading Dina (Oct 31)
Hit the Bid: Krull to Arms (Oct 31)
silverfuturist: Margin Call - best movie this year (Oct 31)
Real News: Bank of America's death rattle (Oct 29)

Chris Martenson: Guest Paul Tustain (Oct 31)
Tim Monk Radio: Guest Turd Ferguson (Oct 28)

Reuters: All eyes on Euro downside (Nov 1)

Fantasy Football
dereksdiary: Tape review of Tebow and Broncos (Oct 31)


FAZ daily
A break from the downtrend?

FAZ daily
If this is a true break higher, doesn't mean FAZ streaks back to 81.
Until the next catalyst - did MF Global's bad news today really
hurt banksters? - 36 to 42 looks probable.

FAS daily
Consolidation is coming to finnies. Already here, in some ways.
Betting against the banksters is hard but until the biggest cheaters
absorb all of the MF Globals of the world, FAS will swing wildly.

FAS daily
The intraday volatility can be traded by few. A buy at the
lower trendline and a sell at the higher level has proven
profitable for some traders. Don't look at me. I sold at 11.33.

9:45 am (Hawaii) Took a nice time off to get a breather from the market, enjoy other aspects of life and feeling fine. Got up around 7:00 am Hawaii time, watered my garden, kept track occasionally on the market. Dow was down around 140 then. Now -230 going into the close. FAZ had hit a high of 38+, dropped to 37+, but is now near its HOD at 39.30. I'm all cash and have been for a few days. In and out, not holding anything overnight.

MF Global declared bankruptcy, due primarily to sovereign debt. They're going to survive one way or another, almost guaranteed to be bought out by one of the big whale banksters for pennies on the dollar. My take is MF Global takes the pain now for an easier landing later while other banks and financials stall out the process and eat dirt later. Better to purge now but these guys don't want to deal with it.

FAS is down near its lows of the day at 14.85 and could start retracing its recent climb to 15+. Will FAS drop back to 12 and 9? Who knows? FAZ was attractive at 35+ but I would not pull the trigger then. Unfortunately. Europe is Europe and will remain staunchly divided on bailouts and details for a long time. It's a tangled mess with too many voices and not enough action. Real action. Not posturing and politics. The US is in a worse mess but there are fewer voices and it's a little easier to read, obviously.

Volume in FAZ was solid today, but not so much to persuade me that we have a crash week in store. My guess is FAZ fluctuates between 36 and 42 for awhile. Any break above 44-45 would be spooky for the banksters, who are running out of provisions, barriers and ammo against the Grim Reaper storming the castle gate. Eventually FAZ returns to 81, then hits 100. Just don't know when.

Thursday, October 27, 2011

Thursday cinema & library

Note: Adding links later today (after work).

10:41 am (Hawaii) Took a spin with FAS, in at 16.55, rose to 16.73 or so, and dropped. Stopped out at 16.40. Very small loss, but the size of position is clearly affecting my exit strategy. Had I doubled the position, I would've bailed at 16.60 or 16.65. But because the position was so small, I was willing to ride a swing back up. After getting stopped out, FAS dipped to 16.15 or so before rallying back to 16.50 afterhours.

That's all I did today. Planning to rework strategy to lock in small gains rather than "lock in" small losses in this turbulence. How long will the ECU's decision have an effect? Could be weeks, days, hours. Maybe the market dives tomorrow. As Max Keiser (above) noted, there has been no sustaining solution. It's all printing fiat and bullshit politics. Not that I want to go long FAZ yet, even at 35+.

There are desperate fund managers out there. Everyone with a toe in the market will be bobbing and weaving through the torrent of bad, dumb news coming out of the banksters and EU and Fed. The managers will keep dipping in, though, to salvage a lost year. It's not about economics or fundamentals or technicals right now. It's about big money and where it swims. Pilot fish time.

Turd Ferguson: Fast market = fast update (Oct 27)

Hit the Bid: Dow 20 thou believe it (Oct 27)


(video) Fox: UKIP leader Nigel Farage (Oct 27)
(video) Euronews: China welcomes EU debt deal (Oct 27)


11:32 am (Hawaii) Technical Knockout? Huge volume in both FAS and FAZ. Even with normal profit-taking, FAS is up 17% to 16.45, blasting through that 15.00 level. If the myth/lie can be perpetuated out of Euroland, FAS could rise into the 20s rapidly.

FAZ is barely able to hold above 35, which had been my hope for a new entry point. I'm waiting this out to see how the market reacts. Fuck theory and logic. If hedge funds and mutual funds pour in for Nov and Dec madness, it doesn't matter how smart or clever your theory is about the disintegration of the Fiat monetary system. Not until 2012, anyway.

FAS daily
Completely ripped through megaphone levels
without QE3, unless this Euro Bailout is the same.
15.00 was a possibility, now 25 is in the picture!

FAS daily
The first uptrend lasted 7 days.
The new one barely lasted 7 days, seemed ready
to dip on day 8 (yesterday) and has surged back
to the top of the current level. 

FAS daily
Major volume - short covering? - today.

FAZ daily
42 was the new thin ice. 
Now 35 is in play, new territory.

FAZ daily
Snapback action could be coming, but I'm not
inclined to bet against the banksters yet. 

FAZ daily
Currently below 1-year lows.

FAZ daily
Previous 1-year lows are history now

For a little more fun, a look at SPY.

SPY daily
Basically a clone of FAS daily, if less volatile.

SPY daily
As the EU turns, so does the days of our market.

Waka Wakaa! (updated 8:51 am HST)

8:17 am (Hawaii) I'm not quite as excited as Fozzie Bear used to get on the Muppet Show. I'm not long, I'm not short. Just flat. All cash since yesterday. I got up an hour ago, watered my garden and had peace of mind. Then I turn on the TV and the Dow is up 330 points. HOLY SHIT.

I can't say I'm shocked that the Euro league of superheroes found some form of resolution and compromise. They were locked in a room together and to do anything but a constructive (?) plan would've unleashed the dragons and sent both Euro and US markets into a whirlpool of epic proportions. So there. The bulls win this battle. The bears lose. In a way, I lost, too, by not being long.

AAPL 405.88 +1.3%
AGQ 71.02 +11.1%
DGP 60.35 +2.8%
FAS 16.21 +15.4%
QQQ 58.93 +2.9%
SPY 128.47 +3.3%
TMV 19.62 +10.7%
TNA 52.45 +7.1%
GOOG 600.81 +2.4%
FXE 141.72 +3.2%
PNRA 136.59 +2.2%

I tossed PNRA onto my Modified Trade X list for fun since it was up huge yesterday. Add another 2.2% today and you know there are a lot of believers in this run today. More so than with AAPL or GOOG, which are sexier. For PNRA to jump after yesterday's move up is impressive.

I'm glad for my little stack of physical metal. I didn't buy more physical while gold was below $1650 and I didn't buy more silver while it was below 30. I just held. It's savings. But I didn't buy AGQ or DGP, though I'll be looking for an entry point . AGQ was available after the opening bell below 66. DGP was below 59. It's probably not too late but I'm picky at price here.

Here's a weird looking 1-min chart of DGP. It always looks sketchy when any price is capped like this to either up or down side.

DGP 1-minute
Strange but nice for bulls

FAS. I had it at 11.09 and sold twice below 11.50. The charts of FAS and FAZ, which I've been posting daily, clearly showed that FAZ was on thin ice and barely able to hold support at 42. I surmised that it might be attractive again at 35, and we have it standing at 36+. I'll wait before touching FAZ and it'll probably be a long wait. There will be fluctuations due to the nature of haughty, deceptive talk out of Euroland — any plan that involves cuts that go to 2026 is fraught with bullshit — but for the most part, the Euro is rising and so will markets.

FAS at 16.30 is near its high of the day. I'm cautious here. There's already been a selloff off the opening gap up, then a run higher. Is there another one coming in the final 90 minutes before the bell? Or will this sell off by half?

Is this another melt-up run like QE1 or QE2? The market sure feels that way. With just over 2 months left in the year, hedge funds will be working like mad to make all the easy money possible, especially since most of them are flat or negative YTD. Like a pilot fish, I must catch that free ride. It's been too hard the past month or two.

Debt Spiral (banksters) list
SCGLY 6.70 +24%
DB 47.64 +18.8%
MS 19.38 +16.9%
FAS 16.38 +16.5%
RBS 9.07 +12.6%
BBVA 9.90 +12.4%
UBS 14.14 +11.7%
NBG 0.61 +11.6%
STD 9.30 +10.7%
IRE 6.39 +10%
C 34.07 +9.4%
GS 116.11 +9.2%
BAC 7.17 +8.8%
JPM 36.94 +8%
HBC 44.98 +6.2%
AIG 26.84 +6%
WFC 27.14 +5.3%
FAZ 36.20 -16.4%

As I've penned for awhile, they simply won't let the Euro (and US) banksters fail. Period. Not for now, anyway.

Update 8:51 am Intraday double top in FAS? Glad I didn't chase at 16.50.

FAS 1-minute
Waiting this out.

Wednesday, October 26, 2011


FAZ daily
Dying on the vine, this is. The global market is
no better off than it was in July, yet FAZ is out
of fuel. Can't and won't fight the trend overnight.

FAZ daily
Again, 42 held as support, but for how much longer?

FAS daily
Financials have overall been losers this quarter,
yet buying pressure is strong in bankster stocks.

FAS daily
Price is teetering near a key point.
Today's late-day surge despite uncertainty in Europe
proves once again that "they" won't let Euro banks
or US banks fail. Again.

12:24 pm (Hawaii) Tomato, to-mah-toe. Potato, po-tah-toe. Up, down, down, up. I traded FAZ twice in the earlier hours for two very small losses. Yes, would've been better off asleep, but I was quite awake at 4 am so . . . . . Woke up near the close to see the indices much higher after dipping below break even. What explains this? I can't think of a sane, logical reason. It is what it is. The charts on FAS and FAZ prove it. No matter what your thesis, volume is on the buy side of the market, even though there are a remarkable number of strikeout stocks again today. Last week we had Goldman Sachs missing, but the stock rallied. Now we have AMZN, NFLX and a ton of huge losers this week. (Panera beat solidly. I should follow bread/restaurant stocks a little.)

Whatever the market does, I refuse to hold a thing overnight as long as it trades on Merkel/Sarkozy/China headlines. The only thing that comes close to making sense is that gold is moving up. A China intervention to save the Euro monetary system requires more fiat printing, bottom line, and that makes gold (and silver) more valuable. Still, is it the machines programmed by plunge protectors that keeps this putrid market afloat? Or is it simply retail traders? Hedge funds/HFTs comprise a vast majority of the market, so what else would explain it? The market is rigged, as always, and I aim to be a pilot fish, not a hero. A pilot fish with a little sack of metal and a constant aversion to extreme risk.

Today, we learn that the EU is nowhere near a common plan to solve this crisis. They won't even meet face to face. Not good. Bank stocks sell off. Then they rally big into the close. Makes no sense, but that's what happens in a casino where every deck is funny. 

How long until Bank of America is majority owned by the Bank of China? Not very, I say. Not very.

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Tuesday cinema & library (updated 900 pm HST)


Upside Trader: Why I shorted financials twice in 2 days (Oct 25)
Le Fly: You are cordially invited (Oct 25)
Cain Thaler: I told you they'd disappoint (Oct 25)
Le Fly: Hedge fund relief rally stalled (Oct 25)
Cain Thaler: QE3 is coming (Oct 25)
Le Fly: There is only one long trade here (Oct 25)
Le Fly: Devil is in details (Oct 25)
Rajun Cajun: What I'm looking at this morning (Oct 25)
Golden Truth: Housing continues death spiral (Oct 25)


(new) streetmoney21: Gold, silver finally make a move (Oct 25)
(new) bullorbearreport: Silver rebound, markets looking bullish (Oct 25)
Truth Never Told: The Riddle (Oct 25) Russell Simmons on End the Fed (Oct 25)
ScrapGoldBusiness: Time has come to buy silver (Oct 25)

Peter Schiff Radio (Oct 25)
Chris Martenson: Guest Eric Sprott (Oct 25)



10:55 am (Hawaii) Back to banksters.

Bank stocks were on a tear in the past few weeks. At 13.31, FAS is up big from its intraday low of 8.43 on Oct 4. FAZ is off its Oct 4 high (81.20). It'll be interesting to see how FAZ, now in the 45-46 range, can hold here. Sans headline news, Euroland skittishness, the inevitable fiat printing machinery and eventual implosion of the monetary system, FAS will run higher on bullish bankster days (France and Germany agreeing on a compromise deal) at the open and close, normally. When the Euro scene is negative, FAZ will open strong and finish strong. The HFT programs are under strict orders, after all. 

When, not if, but when the fiat printing machines go into overdrive, FAS may get to 27+, which was its recent high before the recent avalanche to sub-9. 

FAS daily
Pause that refreshes?

FAS daily
When the fiat printing machines start overheating,
FAS could go back to the recent high at 27+ and
trade in a truly insane new range as Euro cities
are filled with protests, nations default and new
"creative" (temporary) solutions are drawn up.

FAZ daily
So 42 might be the new floor, a dip that was
predictable to an extent. Sure FAZ could see 35,
but it will eventually return to 81, and then 100.

FAZ daily
For now, the bounce was due.
The trend is still on the side of bankster bulls.
However, the math is undeniably bearish no matter
who gets left holding the bag. 

Today's Debt Spiral list +/-

FAZ +7.6%
FAS -8.6%
IRE -4.9%
SCGLY -4.6%
BAC -3.5%
BBVA -3.4%
GS -3.4%
MS -3.3%
JPM -3.1%
WFC -2.9%
AIG -2.4%
C -2%
STD -1.8%
HBC -1.6%
RBS -1.2%
NBG -0.7%
DB -0.4%
UBS +0.1%

Tail end: I noted earlier that I was in and out of FAZ three times today. The bounce was due, but holding FAZ overnight is fraught with risk and can wipe out a week or month's worth of profits. Very near term, I don't mind trading FAZ intraday. In a slightly longer time frame (a few days), FAS could explode. Over the longer term, FAZ will prevail and the banksters will collapse in breadth. Consolidation will be the norm. The monetary system will look much different than it is today. 

Sleep vs Trading

10:40 am (Hawaii) Was in and out of FAZ today for a very small loss. Bought FAZ at 44.70, stopped myself out at 43.96. Bought FAZ at 44.80, stopped myself out at 44.96. Bought again at 45.33, stopped myself out at 45.64. FAZ ran above 46 before the bell, then predictably sold off to mid-45. Currently 45.91 after hours.

Between the first trade and later trades, I got a few hours of sleep while the Dow sat in the -90 to -120 range. The Dow finished -207, basically giving back yesterday's gains. October has been a beastly month for bulls, so some profit-taking is normal. But what's exceptional is some of the crashes in certain stocks today.

AMZN -18.6%
FSLR -25.2%
GMCR -13.1%
NFLX -35%
WNR -9.8%
X -9.8%

Precious metals did very well today on solid volume, as Brother Turd forecasted yesterday. AGQ up 10.3% to 63.60. DGP up 5.4% to 57.31. Miners up big. EXK +6.1% to 10.43. GDX +2.4%. SLW +3.4%. XG +7.9%. I still have no interest in trading miners. Too many invisible factors, ie puppeteers.

AAPL was above 406 early, but led the way down (along with copper, NFLX, etc) and is -2.3% to 396+.


3:10 am (Hawaii) Been awhile since I stayed up for the opening bell and kept the TV on. I haven't examined FAS and FAZ in almost two days, I think, and it feels more like two years. The market leaps up. The market sinks down. Futures this morning, pre-opening bell, are slightly negative. No real huge news to either direction, just near-term skittishness about a possible delay to the Euro crisis solution. Blahblah.

FAS daily
The run to (near) 15 was almost inevitable. Let's face it - Geithner
didn't travel across Europe for a week to do sightseeing. 
Strings were pulled and everybody was on board
for the latest chapter of Fiat Dreamland.

FAS daily
When the EU announces that it will print fiat by the trillions,
14 will be a distant memory.

FAZ daily
Held support at 42 and is bouncing a bit this morning.

FAZ daily
Nothing much to feel bullish about here.
All that's preventing a crash through thin ice at 42
is the lack of a QE-ish announcement in Euroland.

It's hard to enter FAZ here. The deck is rigged, the dealer is cheating and people betting in a pair of deuces are somehow raking in big profits. People? Okay, let's just say they're under orders to stack the deck. Under orders to bet on crap. They're all the same and logic has nothing to do with the results.

The market could melt up through the rest of the year. Or we could see another huge rally get kneecapped with a couple of incredible flash crashes. I'm still all cash.

Friday, October 21, 2011

FAS vs FAZ (updated 100 pm HST)

9:41 am (Hawaii) 20 minutes or so left until the closing bell. I got up around 8:30 and saw the Dow up more than 200 points. Just about everything was up, including gold and silver. Interesting how Europe remains dismantled going forward, Greece is 100% on strike, and somehow the markets are up big. Not only big, but the price action in the past hour has been serene. Odd? Smells like plunge protection, absolutely. Another reason to stay on the sidelines.

Below, FAS and FAZ. With the benefit of hindsight, the 7-day surge of August was basically matched by the 7-day dip of October. In FAZ, the big moves sandwiched a few pennants. I've permanently adjusted the first pennant, which was a stretch in previous charts. Now it's clearly a matter of up and down trends in Aug and Oct. A major, huge move is followed in each 7-day move by a bit of consolidation (micro pennant). After the Aug run, price agitated but generally rose higher. This time, price consolidated for several days, but now has broken lower on today's gap down, below the micro pennant and well below the recently formed megaphone channel.

FAZ daily
The previous range of 42 to 51 is in play now.
Merkel and Sarkozy hold the cards but it's the Fed/White House
who is the dealer and the game is absolutely rigged, ain't it?

FAZ daily
Today's gap down sends a message to bankster shorts
but I'm more interested in seeing how cheap FAZ gets.

Is the run done in FAZ? It seems so, but there's no assuming anything. I just try to get some sense of perspective, but there's no way to prognosticate what happens on Monday, let alone November or December.

I felt that FAZ would possibly dip to 44 or 42, maybe lower at some point, before the inevitable re-run to 81 and then 100. I still think it's probable, though the plunge protection of banksters — don't you love how the White House talks down the banks and describes future investigations on top of the current ones just before the plunge protection is enacted? — plants doubt.

FAS daily
Finally broke into a new megaphone range.
Next stop could be 15 though a dash of QE3
would send it much higher.

FAS daily
Doesn't matter who provides the fuel.
This motor is at full throttle as the banksters
truly show who's still in control. 

Update 1:02 pm The algos tend to trade on technicals, and this gap up and strong close lead me to believe the machines will pour in on Monday morning, boosting FAS and burying FAZ. Howeverrrrrrrr . . . there is the Euro debt crisis and the supposed talks/resolution/bs coming over the weekend. Anything could happen to trigger a market rally or selloff. So believe what you will and peg your hard-earned fiat currency to it, as you put your money where your mouth is. My mouth is uttering simple words like, "hell no" and "this shit is crazy." So I remain all cash, not trusting anyone or anything.

The banksters have many tricks up their sleeves, but if I can get a pocketful of FAZ at 35 and leave it alone for a year or two, I may do just fine. Sooner or later, the poopoo will hit the fan.

Thursday, October 20, 2011

Thursday cinema & library (updated Fri 100 am HST)

(new) endlessmountain: Nonsense - Silver, dollar index, TLT bonds (Oct 21)
(new) MoneyBags73: Massive conflicts of interest at Fed (Oct 20)
(new) Jim Comiskey: Daily market insights - metals futures (Oct 20)
(new) Peter Schiff: Listener questions (Oct 20)
RT: Athens chaos: Cop-protester crossfire (Oct 20)
Keiser Report: Live and let fail (Oct 20)
ScrapGoldBusiness: Perth Mint update (Oct 20)
bullorbearreport: The revolution has begun! (Oct 20)

(new) Peter Schiff Radio (Oct 20)


Eye candy
Street Low: Impala '64 clowning with Desire (Oct 15)

FAS vs FAZ (closing bell edition)

10:18 am (Hawaii) Euro banks down, US banks up. Well, there's NBG up 1.8%, but that's the exception. Of course it's a lot more fun sitting out than riding a whipsaw roller coaster. Flat, all cash. Stay tuned for the resumption of funny business anytime soon.

FAZ daily
Yesterday, it traded between 51.50 and 52.25 in the late hours.
Today, more like 49 and 50. Too spastic for me.

FAS daily
Pushed higher late in the day but the constant heave and ho
make the closing action irrelevant.
More of the same churning until the next
catalyst/Merkel-Sarkosy rumor/downgrade/etc.

Below, the 2-year charts for FAS and FAZ. Clearly, the time decay effect is what makes both more effective as short-term trading vehicles rather than holds. Over the long haul, traders who shorted both were better off than testing the long side, it would seem.

FAS weekly (2 year)
Hate the banksters or not, over the long term,
those bloodsucking pencil pushers show resiliency.
In other words, they find ways to get their way.

FAZ weekly (2 year)
The "easy" money was made in July.


8:19 am (Hawaii) Gridlock on Honolulu's roads and highways. Partly cloudy, moderate trade winds. All is normal for a Thursday morning here. The market looks strapped down, unable to move forward up or down. Indices are flat flat flat. AAPL is down 0.6% to 396+. Precious metals down big (again). Yet FAS is up 1.3%. UBS, WFC, NBC, JPM, C all up. SCGLY, IRE, DB, BBVA, STD all down more than 2%. BAC is down 1.4% to 6.35, which is practically nothing. 5 or 10% moves happen often these days.

FAS and FAZ remain in their ranges. No surprise there. No catalyst, no rocket move. FAZ could be a bargain below 50 or maybe it's just doomed to go lower in this downtrend. FAS could be setting up for a bullish move to 15 and beyond, but the news out of Europe and the US regarding this systemic downfall is far from done. But I remain all cash.

FAZ daily
Another pennant formation? Still perched on a ledge
and not very promising - as it usually is before takeoff.

FAZ daily
Range narrowing, 50 becoming thin ice

FAS daily
Unable to sustain momentum

FAS daily
No direction in sight, 13 still there for the taking

Simple as ABC?

1:17 am (Hawaii) I like my little charts and trendlines and megaphone and pennant patterns. I like candlesticks too, however reliable (or not) they may be. But it's fun now and then to visit American Bulls for their view of stocks. Here's what they say through their candlestick analysis as of Wed Oct 19:

AAPL - Sell confirmed
AGQ - Sell confirmed
DGP - Sell confirmed
SPY - Sell-if...
QQQ - Sell-if...
QID - Buy confirmed
FCX - Wait
EUO - Buy confirmed

Isn't this interesting? All the indicators (at least in my book) of a bullish short-term view are negative, from AAPL to precious metals to bear indice ETFs. So how about financials?

FAS - Buy-if...
FAZ - Buy-if...

So that confirms the confusion and hesitancy of not just me, but of plenty of traders and investors regarding the banks. No surprise that the bank stocks remain choppy, range-bound and largely untouched lately. Or is that really the case?

BAC - Buy-if...
AIG - Sell-if...
C - Sell-if...
GS - Sell-if...
JPM - Buy-if...
MS -  Sell-if...

Less positive than I expected. I don't like the banksters, but even this is more bearish than I would've guessed just by the way they've held up through the past week with JPM and GS announcing far less stellar earnings than expected.

NBG - Wait
IRE - Wait
DB - Buy-if...

There are more Eurozone banks but that's enough. As I fall asleep for the night (and premarket opens in 30 minutes), I'm content to stay the heck out for today. The most bullish thing that could happen is Merkel and Sarkozy release the details of their grand plan to save the European monetary system. That would take the US market and precious metals higher since printing all that fiat money will be nothing but a short-term fix. Then the junkie becomes more dependent on the juice (fiat printing).

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Wednesday cinema & library (updated 115 am HST)

Update 11:45 am (Hawaii) I urge you to give Scott Bleier's latest post a read: 'The entire rally is bullshit'.
"All the low volume volatility of recent weeks has served to scare the remaining individual investors out of the game. The rest of the market has become dominated and overpowered by the correlation between currencies, commodities, stocks and bonds. The programs work in milliseconds to run over any intra-market movements with instantaneous results. By the time you hear or read the news, the market move is over and you as an investor are forced to chase."
Found in the comments of Bleier's blog: Fed/POMO buying $44 billion in Treasurys this month, up from the usual $14-16 billion.

6:35 am (Hawaii) Started this yesterday, but the eyelids wouldn't stay open, so now it's a Wednesday edition. It's been a relatively quiet week of ups (two tiny profit trades on Monday) and one butchered trade on Tuesday. I got FAS at 12.99 before the bell, it went to 13.08 and I debated whether to sell immediately or put in a trailing stop. While I debated myself, it sank to 13.05, then 12.95, then to 12.60. I got out at 12.68 for a small loss. Again, it's not wise to enter late and wing it. Always have a stop in the final minutes of the session especially after the machines have taken anything more than 5% or 10% higher.

It was due for a major selloff and I screwed up. Protect protect protect.


(new) RajunCajun: Not feeling it (Oct 19)
(new) Le Fly: Mandatory listening (Oct 19)
Scott Bleier: The entire rally is bullshit (Oct 19)
Le Fly: Zero reasons to be long (Oct 19)
Zero Hedge: Now Bundestag demands a say (Oct 19)
Turd Ferguson: Beyond the pale (Oct 19)
Turd Ferguson: Silver bull market of 2012 (Oct 18)
Chris Duane (Silver Shield): Great minds think alike? (Oct 18)


ScrapGoldBusiness: Is JP Morgan ready to crash silver again? (Oct 19)
endlessmountain: Silver Log - Midweek report (Oct 19)
Christopher Greene: I am extremely concerned (Oct 19)
Casey Research: Guest Rick Rule (Oct 19)
Casey Research: Guest Eric Sprott (Oct 19)
Chris Garcia: Gold and silver news (Oct 18)
Keiser Report: Live by fraud, die by fraud (Oct 18)
silverfuturist: Silver to peak 2017-20? (Oct 16)

Peter Schiff: Guest Sen. Rand Paul (Oct 19)
Chris Martenson: Guest Nate Hagens (Oct 19)

(video) Press TV: Max Keiser: 'US bankers stole billions' (Oct 19)
(video) Euronews: EU probes interbank lending rates (Oct 19)

Eye candy
Street Low: Carnales Unidos Car Show (Oct 19)


8:46 am (Hawaii) Woke up 6:15 to see the market flat and I was satisfied to get a good night's rest. Then I looked at FAS. I sold it yesterday for a loss at 12.68. It ran to 13.32 or so today before pulling back to the 12.68 level. I guess I missed that gain if sleep is not necessary. I know I've had sleep debt for the past week or so. Getting that sleep back helps. I was terribly off-center yesterday due to that shortage of rest, plus not eating right/enough.

Today I feel better, have some time off and just watched FAZ leave a flat market behind, running from an early low at 46.90 to a high of 50.91. Pulled back now to 50.05. When I got up, it was around 49, then made its run. What's interesting is that it's bouncing without any legit volume. That tells me this bounce won't last, but Greece is on fire and bankster stocks are declining again. It's just a yoyo market. The effect of Sarkozy and Merkel "agreeing" to a deal yesterday has no lasting effect. Not even 24 hours.

FAS daily
This megaphone level is a tough one to crack

 FAS daily
Dead man hanging, 1+ hour left today

 FAZ daily
Hanging off a cliff, but rallying

FAZ daily
The trend is down but can it hold at 49-50?

AAPL shocker
I regretted selling at 377 a couple of weeks ago
Now? Not so much