Cobwebs and scopes

8:40 am (Hawaii) Well that was a waste of half a morning. Getting up (or staying up) early this week caught up with me. I slept right through what turned out to be an interesting open. AAPL has been stagnant, now bordering on 601 and possibly lower. The big money is playing everywhere else. EXPE opened at 39.20 and ran to 43; it was at 32 at the closing bell yesterday. AMZN, which I bought at 220 and sold at 219 afterhours yesterday in a pure chickenshit move, opened at 224.83 and ran to 228.69. Now at 225.37 after selling off to 220.22. It just won't die or pull back below 220, though it closed yesterday at 195.99 (before earnings were released). Was it accounting deception that produced a $0.28 quarter (versus $0.07 expectation)? Not a worry at all, not to traders.

Still keeping a close eye on SWKS, CRUS and ZAGG. The latter reports on May 3, CRUS has a tasty P/E (still below 13) despite the run-up. PCLN is riding EXPE's coattail, up 3.4% today. Tough to hold anything into next week; I want a selloff day to get cheaper prices. ZAGG below 12 would be nice; it was at 11.82 earlier. While I slept. Now at 12.29, up 2.5%.

Even GVSC, which got pounded yesterday, is up 4.1% to 17.65. Thinly traded issues (403k so far today) are too annoying. Indices pared down in the past 30 minutes. Maybe I'll get the prices I like. Careful out there.

Update 9:11 am So how is it possible that Spain gets downgraded/degraded and the market blows it off completely (after an early swoon)? This shit doesn't disappear in the long term. For now though it's just a rowdy boy at the fair. Drunkard at the carnival. They kick him out and he's ignored until his return. But he will return. That's what makes a buy of ZAGG or PCLN (May 9 earnings) difficult on this day, Apr 27. Plenty can hit the market between now and then. ZAGG and PCLN could still explode then. But it may ride lower before that. Or more likely both will simply climb (like today) on anticipation and peak out by earnings day. 

Price action dictates. And if/when the market gets rattled by the usual May fear, there won't be much reprieve for those holding the bag. 

So all's good when it comes to Spain, right? For today, the answer's yes. 

If you think bankers tell the truth, see what Santander's CEO claimed today. 

Out of orbit?

11:23 am (Hawaii) Soon as Bill Griffith of CNBC passed along news of Orbitz's courthouse victory over American Airlines, the stock rocketed. It had already risen off its closing price of 2.21 and was in the 2.80 range. I deliberated and passed. Just don't know enough about that industry. But sure enough, it paused and ripped higher and higher going to 3.58 before pulling back.

The Fibonacci level on a retrace was 3.05, and that's precisely where OWW dipped. Unfortunately, I was occupied with work, so OWW bounced off 3.05 back up to 3.40 and has been leveling out since. Now at 3.22. I don't know if I'll try a small position at 3.05 or so, but it's not a horrible risk. This is a stock that started three years or so ago at 14 and found its level halfway down at 7, and has struggled since. This looks like the anti-PCLN. But at some point, profitable companies (is this one, I don't know) are worth more than $1 or $2 per share.

Tough call on where OWW goes tomorrow. Realistically, this would've been strictly a quick trade off the news had I stepped in at 2.80. I would've probably have sold around 3.30-3.40. A quick, decent profit. Everything else is too convoluted, too heavy and too much pain to deal with. How bad can a travel company be when Priceline has shown how it should be done? Anyone arguing that OWW should go back to $7 had better have some proof, especially with crude oil prices above $100/barrel and fewer dollars for travelers to spend.

I approve of these

Vehicles for short-term trading

• AAPL. The next catalyst, 3G iPad, is near. Anticipation is there, though this is probably baked into the stock price. Nothing, though, would've indicated a month or two ago that the iPad absolutely would have the Apple store filled to the gills like it is — at least when I'm there.

So that's in a week or two. After that, nothing, really, until the new iPhone is launched this summer. So, any breakout above 271 has to be handled carefully. Maybe a move to 280, and then 271 would become a new support level. Maybe.

Would it come with the 3G iPad? Probably. If not, AAPL will likely continue trading in this 256-271 range.

• C. Definitely ranges between 4.30 and 5.05, give or take a few cents. Discard emotion and trade this vehicle like a machine.

• DNDN. Great day for all supporters of Dendreon and prostate cancer patients. But emotion has no stake in these new levels, 51-52. I first bought DNDN at 7, saw it sink to 4 with the FDA's rejection of Provenge in 2007. There must be some folks who had the same experience, but let their shares sit still for the past three years. Hat's off to them. Not touching DNDN here, though it could start moving again with any kind of partnership or takeover talk.

• F. Ford moved nicely today (2.5%) to 13.60. It's stabilized at 13 plus and worth exploring again as a swing trade.

• GS. Closed at 160 today, up from 152 earlier in the week during the public flogging by Congress. With interest rates still basically zero, GS and the banks are printing money, making easy profits. So why am I not in GS or C?

• IMAX. Not happy about this morning's blunder, but I am expecting a run to 23 or 24 as Iron Man 2 premiere day nears (May 7). This is not a long-ter hold for me. It's strictly in and out, maybe even from week to week. Buy Thursday or Friday; sell Monday. Rinse and repeat all of May and June.

• NFLX. Up to 103 today, but smells too much like Blue Nile to me in price action. Too much competition coming soon. A day trade at best.

• PCLN. Have never studied this.

• SBUX. Howard Schultz is king of all coffee. Missed this comeback.

Specs like JMBA and NBG are on the backburner. I'd love to toy with them, but I've got to make some solid profits first.

Allocation comfort zone

I'm almost 100% in equities right now. My game plan was to be out of IMAX and BIDU by the opening bell this morning. Fail.

I'd rather be in 60% cash (and still 40% long AAPL). I'm leaning toward short-term trades in stuff I can rely on, like AAPL. Speaking of which ...

Reliability ranking

Stocks that have both good growth and relative stability.

1. AAPL. New stores to open in Europe and China. Coolest products on Earth.
2. C. Pandit has cleaned house, cut toxic assets and plays the PR game astoundingly well.
3. F. On a roll. Earnings were superb. Mullaly is king.
4. GS. The worst is over. Higher-percentage move more likely in C, however.
5. BIDU. No real competition and serious China penetration is still in the early stage.

There are a ton of good stocks I don't mention. That's fine. I'm interested in narrowing down to a group of vehicles that I can get comfortable with and understand well. I don't need a list of 100 stocks to make a good profit every day. And when I'm interested in going outside the box, there are great traders with great ideas I can glance at.