Idling and parking (updated)

8:26 am (Hawaii) Some long, fun days for me with summer here, which means I've slept through the past two sessions for the most part. Even though I knew futures were up more than 100 points last night. The Dow is +203 with about 90 minutes left. AAPL is hovering around 570, off its intraday high of 573.85. AGQ is up 5.1% to 43.86, one of the most obvious signs that sentiment is with the bulls, i.e. euro printing is about to crank into full madness.

DGP is barely green today, however. Also note that volume is a pittance, so this move could pop any moment. It's a three-legged chair. It's a lack of sellers more than an onslaught of buyers. Even social media are up: FB +0.9%, YELP +4.3%. Even GRPN +7.4%.

Finnies are rallying again. JPM is +2.6% and FAS is +6.66 percent (not making that up). VXX is down 4.8% and TVIX is -8.9%.

I have some work to do, in and out this morning (yes, it's still morning here in the middle of the Pacific), and I'm not convinced about this move higher. I may dip into DGP or even NUGT with a tight stop, but that's it. This arena is half empty, and if the balloon pops in Europe, the tankage will resume. My gut tells me they have to print, though. It's a conundrum.

Update 10:04 am In and out of FAS for a quick little profit. Got in at 77.70 a few minutes before the closing bell. Swung lower to about 77.45 before it closed strong. A few minutes after the bell, sold at 78.45. They'll puppeteer this thing back to 77.70 or so at some point today, I'm guessing.

Of course, now that I'm out, it will go to 80, then 85, then 90. They must print euros. Simple as that. So why am I not in gold and/or silver? Both have made big runs recently. I'll wait until things cool off a little more before walking into that. Because any whiff of bad news regarding the ECB, eurozone, Germany ... and FAS goes back to 68. And lower.

Looking ahead (updated)

2:39 pm (Hawaii) Kinda regretting not holding any FAZ. Realizing that smaller positions, even smaller than what I've sometimes traded, will work best through the choppiness.

Business Insider: Nikkei tanks right away as industrial output comes in weak (May 30)

But @TraderFlorida has been spot on in regard to technical analysis, riding AAPL down until last week, and now he's bullish on it for the short term.

TraderFlorida (video): Nice bounce today (May 30)

I'm all cash for now. Who knew AAPL would jump $10 while the Dow would plunge 160?

From earlier today:


Business Insider: ECB sends out rejection of FT report that it blocked Spanish bank recap (May 30)
Business Insider: Here comes the busiest 48 hours in history of economics (May 30)
Telegraph: Spain faces 'total emergency' (May 30)

Update 8:53 pm 


AZ Daily Sun: Asia stocks fall as Italy, Spain bond costs rise (May 30)
Orange County Register: Robert Samuelson: Why is there no Greek bank run? (May 30)
Bloomberg: Spain's banking rescue should become example for Europe (May 30)

Weekend cinema & library (updated)

10:37 am (Hawaii) Gold (and silver) got a nice gap up this morning thanks to the CME mafia's loosening (death) grip on margin requirements. Most of the market though was flat, meandering, aimless. The skeptic in me wants to be in FAZ since we have Memorial Day weekend ahead and that gives the Euro boneheads three entire days to keep screwing their system up. (Is it reasonable to expect such disparate cultures and nations to be unified? We would never enter a union with Canada, Mexico, Panama and Haiti, would we? Bad comparison, I know, but how can Germany not despise Greece at this point?)

So gold's leap higher appeals to the optimist in me. Maybe the puppeteers are ready to jolt this market to new highs like 2011. But craziness in the euro zone is going to happen, just a matter of when. So I remain neutral, all cash.

Bloomberg: Deutsche Bank's Fitschen said failed Greece lacks leaders (May 25)
Zerohedge: About that European stress test (2011) and where pain in Spain is raining next (May 25)
Zerohedge: Greece has proved that ECB bailout scheme based on lies, fraud (May 25)

Update Monday 8:14 pm The pessimists/realists/skeptics could be right 99% of the time. I could agree with them 99% of the time. But that 1% they're wrong could be precisely when the market bounces. Probably when more fiat starts rolling off the digital presses. Then what? What good will it do anyone to be short the market?

Still, it's good to hear both sides of the story.

Economic Collapse: 25 signs that smart money has written off Southern Europe (May 28)
Reggie Middleton (video): Breaking down muppetology (May 28)
Le Fly: One more great trade until September (May 28)

Wednesday wind-down

2:39 pm (Hawaii) Not holding any FAZ, but the more I catch up on news, the more I wonder why I don't have at least a half-position. Chris Martenson's piece at Zero Hedge breaks it down best.

NY Times: Softening, Merkel says she is open to stimulus for Greece (May 16)

Zero Hedge: Martenson - 'We are about to have another 2008-style crisis' (May 16)

Washington Post: How a bank run could force Greece out of the euro (May 16)

BBC (video): Greek Syriza leader Tsipras attacks EU and Merkel (May 16)
BBC: Watch deposit flight, not the eurocrats (May 16)
CBC (video): Greek bank run (May 16)
NY Times: Flight of Euros Accelerates, Adding to Greece's Worries (May 16)
Zero Hedge: This is the Greek ELA Borrowing Capacity (May 16)
Zero Hedge: What Happens if Greek Payments Stop: Goldman's Thought Experiement on 'The Day After' (May 16)
RT (video): Greek bank run starts (May 16)
Bloomberg: Greek Presiddent Told Banks Anxious as Deposits Pulled (May 15)
Zero Hedge: Has the Greek Bank Run Started? (May 15)
Economic Collapse: Bank runs in Greece will be followed by bank runs in other European nations

Funny how CNBC didn't show any footage of Greek bank runs today. Nada.

Windup Wednesday (updated 12:29 pm)

3:34 am (Hawaii) Feels like a pitcher on the mound, finally out of the dugout and throwing his first few pitches. I had bet against that hurler, thinking he'd get hit and hit deep by Europe. But the market is net positive this morning. Green everywhere. It's probably more of a dead cat bounce than anything, but it was enough to chase me out of my position in FAZ at 24.60, taking a loss of 0.70/share. That's a small loss, but it's still a loss and the losses are racking up.

Of course, soon as I sold, FAZ bounced right up to 24.82. So this rally isn't going straight up. Looks and feels more like a range bound move. Still holding GSVC, down a dime or so, not bad.

Update 5:09 am Still holding GSVC, which rallied off its low and is hovering at 18.25. FAZ exploded in the past 7 minutes from sub-25 to 25.27. In other words, had I held, I'd be almost break even.

Dow Jones nearly gave back all of its gains, was at +7 a minute ago. Are the algos buying up dips today? AAPL barely in the green. GRPN exploded to 13+ before pulling back to 12.65.

Update 5:23 am Bloomberg reporting that the ECB will not enact stimulus until June or July. That may explain the jump in FAZ and the selloff in the indices. Or not. Long FAZ at 25.10.

Update 7:10 am Reggie Middleton talked about insolvency in the banksters long ago and he's still right. This video is from around New Year's. He'll continue to be right until the next QE.

 

Update 7:46 am Indices biting the dust again. This has been far more predictable than I ever imagined. Wish I'd noticed the pattern sooner. Interesting piece on a Lehman/Greece comparison. But seeing AAPL plunge from 551 to 546 in the last several minutes is a stunner. I've anticipated AAPL doing a Fibonacci retrace to 546 and here it is. 

Update 8:16 am FAZ running above 25.60 as traders pile on the banksters. Below, the string of afternoon (Eastern time) upswings by FAZ.

Indices are fractionally down, AAPL still holding on at 546.

Update 9:20 am JPM was in the green much of the day, now struggling to stay above 35. That's rock bottom and it will probably dip a little more and remain stagnant for some time. AAPL at 541 ... spooky. This morning, when I sold FAZ (for a small loss), 70% of my Debt Spiral Dance (banksters) list was green. Now? It's 19% green, 76% red. Fugly, indeed.

FAZ his at 25.99. That's green for me, but the downturn in the indices means GSVC sold off in a fugly way, so I'm net down for the day so far.

Update 9:32 am Out of FAZ at 25.95, locked in profit of 0.85/share. There's plenty of upside from here, but 1) there's a huuuge load of shares waiting on the sell block at 25.98, 25.99, 26.00, and 2) this will likely sell into the close as traders rake in profits, and 3) I don't want to hold this overnight again.

This puts me just barely over break even for the day on closed trades. I still have GSVC sitting out there at 17.78, down from my buy yesterday at 18.35. Fugggly.

Update 12:29 pm All kinds of coverage of David Einhorn at the hedge fund conference in NYC. He doesn't say anything about HLF and it spikes 9%. He pans a few other stocks, they crash (get halted too). He raves about AAPL and it goes from 542 to 546 in the final minutes before the close.

streetmoney21: Fed, ECB and ponzi

FASter (updated 318 am HST)

2:32 am (Hawaii) FAS on the move again. Haven't read any headlines and the TV has been off all night. But FAS closed yesterday at 13.75 and is hovering above 14.20 now in premarket trading. Fib retrace would bring it down to 14.04.

Update 2:39 am A lot of speculation yesterday is becoming fact today, possibly, with the Greek PM stepping down today. That opens the door for a new PM, basically a puppet, and that would make the referendum "acceptable" to the United States of Europe, and allow Greece to bounce out of the Euro monetary system. Win-win for all sides, and from what I read yesterday, this trail of madness makes sense in its insane way. In other words, as Turd Ferguson and others have penned, the route to printing paper continues.

Catching up with all this news in Greece as I lay here in bed with my laptop, watching Bloomberg TV online. Yes, I am in bed with Betty Liu. Again.

Obama side by side with Sarkozy. Was this ever really going to fall apart? There's no way the banksters would have let that happen, not this week.

Update 2:47 am FAS made ludicrous surge from 14.15 to 14.53 (in a 2-minute span) before selling back down to 14.35. Bloomberg reporting that the new ECB boss is cutting the base interest rate. The puppet show is ON.

New Fib retrace level for FAS is now 14.23. Currently 14.36.

Update 3:18 am Betty now says Greece PM is "fighting on" and will not resign. I'm glad I'm not trading on these contrary bizarro headline news. FAS is holding at 14.36 so far, but 14.23 (Fib retrace) is in range. I don't like these wacko reports though. They're all lying, aren't they?

More likely, the Greece PM is Dr. Jekyll when he's corralled by Euro interests, then is back to Mr. Hyde when he is back home.

Greek party mode

10:12 am (Hawaii) Regular watch list 49% up, 50% down, 1% neutral. Apple -1.5% to 390+. Former high flyers are down. YOKU -18.3%. NFLX -11.2%. BIDU -9.2%. SINA -9.2%. Top gainers in the Regular list: FAS +7.6%, AGQ +7%, UCO +4.6%, PSLV +4.2%, BBEP +4%, C +3.8%, GNK 3.6%, SLV +3.4%, X +2.8%, SWY +2.8%, GE +2.6%.

US Steel? This smells like a dead cat bounce.

FAZ at 60.37 afterhours, touching the lower line of its near-term pennant. Still right about in the center of its megaphone longer term. 

FAZ (daily) filling the near-term pennant, soon to go ... where? 

The Debt Spiral list was all green except for FAZ: SCGLY +9.8%, FAS +7.4%, MS +6.6%, DB +6.5%, STD +6.3%, BBVA +6%, RBS +4.8%, IRE +4.8%, C +3.9%, BAC +3.7%, GS +3.7%, JPM +3%, HBC +2.5%, NBG +1.5%, AIG +0.8%. All of Euroland is ecstatic that the party isn't over yet. 

Was this actually the day to go long financials? Could be in the near term. But I think this is a champagne, pop-the-cork moment for finnies. Temporary. A lot of getting drunk, patting backs and double kiss on the cheek hellos. It won't last. Real money has to come from somewhere real, and printing fake money (fiat) isn't going to cut it for much longer. Real production? Not in the US or Euroland. The puppeteers sent jobs elsewhere. 

Today's German parliament vote was a measure to delay the inevitable. Will the people of Germany vote out these politicians who have put the people's savings on the chopping block? Is it their duty to save dysfunctional neighbors? 

FAZ now at 59.94 (10:36 am HST), running with momentum to the downside, opposite of yesterday's afterhours trading. I know what I did wrong yesterday (not selling most/all of the position into strength above 65). I know what I did wrong today (not selling most/all of the position into strength above 65). Taking the belief and logic, not just emotion, out of trading is difficult. Boil it down to basic elements, and it's about price. Sell above 65, buy below 60. Or wait for a bargain at 55 or lower.

New mantra: Less chatter, more price discipline. 

Set your bets and go to sleep? (updated 1010 am HST)

8:16 am (Hawaii) Not so long ago I got a handful of FAZ at 60.53. Not the optimum price like 55 or 53, but it suited me okay. That was at the end of Tuesday. Today, right now, FAZ is at 64.92. Had I done a Rip Van Winkle, slept through all this political economic hoohaa, I'd wake up and be pleasantly surprised with a gain of more than 4 bucks a share. Instead, I sawed away and gave away what would've been a profit yesterday. Only in the past hour am I back to break-even on the latest position.

For now, predators are feasting on imbeciles, and the carnage is just beginning. Nothing's free and if you can't protect it, you get eaten. Can't help that it's just a little funny to watch sometimes.

Update 9:02 am Did anyone see that move in the minutes before the final hour began. That was 8:55 to 9:00 here. Dow rallied as if there was going to be some mad upswing, got up to +13. Yesterday, there was a distinct move at the top of the hour. Today, 9:00 arrived and the Dow started tanking. It's 9:04 am now and the Dow is now -38. I have no idea where it finishes in 56 minutes. But that looked like a trap for the traders who might be playing a move right at that 9:00 tick.

Update 9:12 am FAZ went from 64 to 65 in a hurry, now 65.36. I'm now in the living room, TV is on (mute) and I'm watching the daily chart only. As long as I line it up with my megaphone and pennant patterns, I'm not switching over to the 1-minute. Otherwise I'd have to draw it all over again. That's one odd way of implementing self-discipline.

As I type, a major battle between bulls and bears is in place. Le Fly is right, despite the relatively up or flat numbers today, so many stocks have been forked that it looks very much like an avalanche is not far away. In the past few minutes, the Dow has gone from about -35 to +15 or so, then back to -35. Wild swings and battles in the trenches.

Update 9:37 am How horrendo. I watched as FAZ rallied to 65.41 and I was in the green by 1.30 or so. Then the indices rallied and FAZ went down, down, down. I had to get out or get piled over in an avalanche due to the nature of 3x short ETFs. If the algos go bullish, get out of the way. I exited the position at 62.20 62.26. FAZ is now at 61.86. It went from a winning trade to a loser in what felt like seconds. If this was going on at mid-day, it's a different decision. In this final 30 minutes, I can't take that kind of chance, the odds stacked against me. Should've sold most or all of the position above 65. Absolutely unpredictable.

The only good thing is that FAZ rallied off today's low, saving me $3/share. Scaling out is going to be a necessity from now out. The market may be wrong. Being right doesn't mean making a profit.

Update 9:55 am It's less about the hows and whys. It's about price. The ancient adage, "Buy low, sell high." It made no sense for the market to rally in the last 30 minutes after going back and forth for hours. If anything, the algo machines sensed that peon traders (me) were leaning one way, and the machines went the other way, raking in profits all the way up. I'm not saying the German vote in favor of a Greek bailout wasn't going to boost the market. But for the market to go from indecisive to straight-up-and-away without any catalyst is just the new norm. 

FAZ is at 60.37 in afterhours trading. From here, does the market go blindly into melt-up mode for the near term? I tend to think so. That'll lead to higher gold and silver price, which I like.

FAZ at 65 was a very so-so entry point. FAZ at 60 a little better. At 55, 50, 45, far better. It's probably coming. And as Greece and other Euro party states get closer to default in the coming months, FAZ will return to 65, 73, 81. 100 will come, too. Just not today. 

Tomorrow? Will Sept 30 be a one-day free-for-all window-dressing blastoff? Maybe. 

Europe blah blah blah ...

BP shares in Europe are down more than 13% today, according to Bloomberg TV. Euro banks are slogging through the muck after the ECB said there are major bond and writedown issues.

Lovely.

On with the helmets, everyone. If you're long and haven't hedged your positions, good luck. If you're in 100% cash like I am, you can rest assured, indeedy.