Say it ain't so

Bianca Beauchamp

4:22 am (Hawaii) This can't be true. The Fly, Le Fly, retiring from the market? He may be convinced, but I say no. Why? He's had an emotionally draining few days recently. If he were to "retire" after a few boring days, successful or not, that would be a sticker. Not this. Not when he's exhausted, busy and tagged with the daily grind of being a parent/megamillionaire trader/interweb boss.

Other than that, the Dow is +255, Nas +41, S&P +23, all up 1.6 to 2.0%

I haven't tried anything since selling DGP in premarket. Things are positive for bulls, but the stuff I like are waffley. Indecisive. Lack of conviction from the buy side. I'll stay on the sideline in that case. I wanted to re-enter DGP, maybe even enter AGQ. But the run may be done for the morning, maybe the day. DGP sits above 55, which refuses to break. AGQ is sitting in the 126-127 area.

FAZ stays above 56. I'm looking for 50, greedy pig that I am.

My Regular watch list is 86% green, 14% red. Hasn't been that bullish since ... ever. AGQ, MCP, FAS, CHGS, GNK, YOKU, PSLV, MWW, SLV, DGP, YZC, SINA, UCO up 5.5% or more. Volume? Not a factor yet, but these steep gains have me thinking that we may be at a pivot point today, or we had one yesterday or Friday.


Bianca Beauchamp Black Transformation from Martin Perreault on Vimeo.

Beware, the streets could become lawless

2 pm (Hawaii) No sheriff, no protection. Not that feeble-minded innocents are safe in any market, but if the Fed has a shutdown of any sort, the SEC won't be fully loaded. (Please save your puns for another time.)

My guess is that the naked short sellers of the world are salivating fantastically at the prospect of a Fed shutdown. Some serious scamming could go on. Another flash crash? You bet. Or, I would not bet against it. The market is at nosebleed levels with the threat of no QE3, still a few weeks from quarterly earnings reports and plenty of complacency among traders. Hedgies would love nothing more than to short every long's ass, then load the truck with discounted shares of any decent stock and ride back up.

I've been dozing off the past couple of days regarding trading. Missed a potential winner here and there, but all in all not worried about that stuff. I got my sleep and there's a massive workload, so first things first. Catching up on today's action...

AAPL stuck at 336-340 today, now 337.80 minutes before afterhours trading ends.

Silver still bouncing higher. EXK at 11.96, near its high of the day (+3%). I sold at 8.55 just a few weeks ago. Oh well.

PAAS (+0.5%) and SLW (+0.4%) moderate gains, while SLV was flat (+0.05%). Gold is quiet today after a breakthrough earlier in the week.

WNR is down 2.9% to 18.17 after a strong run. Natural-born profit-taking is all.

YZC is still killing bears and shorts, up 4.1% to 39.41. Coal continues to explode and China needs it.

MCP up 12.4% to 69.73. CHGS up 9.8%. MWW up 3.8%. UCO up 3.1% as crude settles above $110/barrel. I should've bought a small slice of UCO just to hedge against higher gasoline prices for my car. A hundred shares of UCO would've been sufficient. Oh well.

53% of my watch list is green after swinging all over the place early in the morning. A daytrader's paradise, it seems. Caution and protection still strongly advised.

CNBC: Japan rattled by major quake; stocks, dollar and oil fall (Apr 7 2011)

Dressing up

12 pm (Hawaii) So is this it? Has the end-of-month/end-of-quarter window dressing begun? When I hit the sack around 5 or 6 am Hawaii time (noonish Eastern), it seemed the market was going to drift in small currents forever. Of course, nothing stays the same in the market for long. The market went bozo bullish as I slept, sending 75% of my watch list to the green side after being inept earlier.

DJIA 12,279 (+0.67%), Nasdaq 2,756 (+0.96%), S&P 500 1,319 (+0.71%). Again, volume wasn't impressive, but it was about 20% higher in the "axis" of stocks, AAPL. Monday was a low in volume for the year. Tuesday saw more action. Wednesday is the 30th of March and Thursday is the end of the month. I'd say odds are 70% that window dressing has begun. By that math, the edge is 40% (70 vs. 30), but am I willing to indulge myself with 40% of my roll in play? Or to be risk-addicted about it, place some bets that allow for 40% swing down? Yes to the former and no the latter. We're still somewhat toppy here and the chances of a) a selloff after window dressing and b) negative news about QE3 would easily send the market down the mountain like a wild eagle pushing goats off the ledge.

For now, however, just about everything finished green today, and big on the win side. WNR gained 1.9% to 17.10 after being in red early. Le Fly wins again on his call for oil refiners to slice through any market turmoil. He's right.

AAPL, which sold off to a hair above 346 early, is at 351.30 in afterhours trading. My position in AAPL at the end of last week was opened at 346.75 and I sold at 350.65, which clearly is a range within the larger range (326 to 365). There are too many AAPL bulls who want this stock to lift, for the PE to hit 25 or 27 or 30, and that would be fair. But with the slowdown due to Japan's tragedy, I really don't see any eye-popping sales numbers in the near term. Demand huge, but customers will have to wait. AAPL will be fine long term, but it just won't hit 400 as soon as I or anyone else had expected.

This is not a bad thing. I could buy at 345 (mid-point of the larger range) and sell at 350 over and over again without extreme concern over risk. I didn't do it today, but it's there. What other stock are you going to ride as comfortably? CHGS? LULU?

CHGS 3.54 (+20.4%), MCP 60.10 (+8.3%), CLNE 15.20 (+4.8%), LULU 89.37 (4.8%), CMG 268.00 (+3.9%), RLOC 20.55 (+3.2%), VLO 30.50 (+3.2%), AMZN 174.62 (+3.1%), EXK 9.28 (+3.1%), YZC 34.50 (+2.9%). It goes on and on. Huge gains for momo stocks. Silver plays. Even coal (YZC). China is in heat. US stocks hot, and that's with crude oil up. UCO is at 54.78 (+1.7%).

It almost didn't matter what people bought today. The bull gored every bear in sight. Big losers on my watch list were TVIX 37.49 (-5.5%), EDZ 19.12 (-3.3%), DG 30.52 (-3.1%), TZA 36.84 (-3%), VXX 29.95 (2.7%), QID 51.65 (-1.9%). Also OPEN 102.90 (-1.3%). OPEN's huge run had to stop for a breather at some point.

I wouldn't be shocked if the market reverses before tomorrow's opening bell. There's still time for hedgies to take it down fast and still re-enter before the end of the month. Unlikely, but entirely possible. I'll be waiting for a unlikely discount on my favorite plays with 100% loaded gunpowder.

Peaks, valleys and necklines

3 am (Hawaii) Examining AAPL and QID from yesterday's afterhours trading and this morning's premarket action, QID is roughly where it was at yesterday's AH close, 52.79.

AAPL, however, is among the bottom-feeders on my watch list so far today at 347.71, down 0.78%. It gives me a little more credence in my theory about the trading range, 326 to 365. The midpoint of that range is 345.5, and though volume and momentum always fluctuate without clear, definite reason, the price tells so much. Price is one of the reasons why I'll check futures and stock prices before I catch up on global or domestic news.

In a skittish, flimsy market like this, we have peaks and valleys often based on nothing more than big-money manipulation. When the hedgies have had their fill at the AAPL buffet line, they dive out of the building after setting the gas lines on fire, and all us little peasants are still in the line, loading up on fattening desserts like the fine gluttons we are. This is why I'm always wary about AAPL above 350 and always willing to consider a position below 345. It's a chickenpoop approach, you might say, but I'd rather manage risk and ride it between 340 and 350 than buy above 350 with such thin volume.

Elephants on melting ice. Bad combination. Everything sinks to the bottom of that cold pond when the elephants dance too hard.

In an environment like this, issues like CHGS go flying to the moon. CHGS (China Gengsheng Minerals) was up more than 20% earlier in PM but has pulled back a bit and is now at 3.45. CAUTION advised. Don't get caught in that tsunami now that the early traders have begun booking big profits. You could get swallowed up and pummeled a loss far larger than you ever feared. If you go XL on CHGS, please for mercy's sake have the sense to hedge your bet with puts. Protect your ass. The market never will do so much for you.

LULU is also up, 2.15% to 87.10. Another sign that this market is in risky territory. A LULU top is often followed by a painful pullback for those who are all-in.

UCO flat. EXK, PASS, SLW, SLV all flat. GLD and NGD are fractionally down, too.

Times like this, in between earnings seasons, media has little to do but dwell on danger spots. There is no catalyst in the short term for AAPL or any other substantial mover. Daytraders will move in and out quickly, sending the CHGS and LULU stocks of the world soaring, then right down off a cliff.

Still 100% cash and watching with another wondrous piece of technology.

Necklines? I know it's not just me noticing that CNBC has Mark Haynes off-air (vacation?) and in his place is a blonde anchorwoman with big hair and a seriously low neckline. Probably the most boobage seen on CNBC since that Hugh Hefner special. Or that porn industry documentary. Comparing ratings today versus when Haynes is on air would be interesting. 

Some Amanda Drury photos off Google. 

Maybe she doesn't mind being eye candy. Otherwise, at what point does she tell the producer, "Bugger off, bitch!" 

Zero Hedge: NYSE reports third-highest net margin debt amount ever (Mar 29 2011)