Just another dysfunctional day at Dendreon

This is the kid you love, the kid who has all the potential in the world.

Time and time again, though, he needs help. Someone has to bail him out, not literally. Not yet, anyway.

The good news for Dendreon today was that a late-session surge vaulted the PPS to $8.15, a 4.6% gain. Nice.

Then came the bad news. For those of us who caught the close but ignored after-hours trading, it was a body blow. News of the SEC's inquiry — informal, they say — regarding prostate cancer immunotherapy treatement Provenge scared off the weakest of hands. DNDN traded at $7.63 by the end of the day.

That's 16 cents lower than Monday's close.


It's the latest in the long, unpredictable history of Dendreon. Shareholders are, once again, feeling powerless to help. Only the most patient and optimistic are still in the stock.

Along with the SEC's inquiry, Dendreon announced that it received a letter from shareholders. The letter, addressed to the board of directors, requested immediate investigation and action against exeuctives who may have acted improperly after the FDA's advisory counsel approved Provenge in late March.

Whatever the case is with the SEC — there's no clear indication that it will be as "informal" as suggested — Dendreon may have more than a little scuffle ahead with angry shareholders who have filed lawsuits. If Dendreon execs have, indeed, gained financially by witholding vital information from shareholders, ugly won't begin to describe the train wreck.

Then again, those of us who are long Dendreon already expect the worst, and in fact, all of the worst-case possibilities are probably built into the stock already.

It's just that ... shareholders just want to breathe some air here, and Dendreon management shows no signs of providing an oxygen tank. Par for the course.

How bad is perception plus reality for shareholders? If Gold were fired tomorrow, the PPS would probably spike. Yet, even a dysfunctional family has better prospects if Daddy can just straighten out rather than be removed from the home.

Two days into the week, two days of major news. What more could happen tomorrow?

Disclaimer: Pupule Paul is still long DNDN.

Northwest Bio beats Dendreon to the punch

For those of you who are long Dendreon, today was either

a. disheartening, or

b. encouraging

I write this because a little-known Co called Northwest Biotherapeutics became the first to gain approval for a cancer vaccine today. Northwest Biotheraputics (NWBO.OB) announced early this morning that its Phase 1 (yes, that is not a typo) treatment for brain cancer has been approved for use in Q3 in Switzerland.

How is it that a Phase I treatment is already going to market in Europe, while Dendreon's Phase 3 Provenge sits idly with prostate-cancer patients waiting month after month, year after year?

Can it be that Northwest Biotheraputics simply has more finesse and maneuverability? Can it possibly be that Dendreon couldn't find a partner if it were the only boy at an all-girls school dance?

In other words, what the frick is going on here?


Northwest Biotherapeutics had a market cap of $29 million before today's session opened. (The Co is so small, Google Finance doesn't have a summary or quote price, though Yahoo has one.) After trading around $2 in recent days, the PPS spiked up at the open before bottoming around $2.50.

From that point on, NWBO.OB rocketed and finished at $7.33, a gain of 249%. Pink-sheet stocks don't trade in after hours, but there is almost absolute certainty that the stock will continue to climb.

European investors will get word of this news when the sun rises there. Media will also pick up the story. They'll learn that Northwest Bio not only has a treatment ready for market this quarter, but also has a treatment in the pipeline for other cancers. The tiny Co from Bothell, Wash. could trounce the bigger boys in Seattle. With all its eggs in one basket — prostate-cancer treatment Provenge — Dendreon could soon be left in the dust.

Full enrollment for Provenge Phase 3 trial 9902B may not be completed until next year, and the FDA clearly has its scopes set on shooting down Dendreon even if interim results are positive. Sure, the FDA is corrupt, but the game still plays on. The clock stops for no one.

Still, NWBO.OB is a risky stock to delve into. With a float of only 4.17 million shares, it's possible the continued rise in the PPS would make Dendreon's zany ride in March and April feel like slow motion. As quickly as the price goes up, however, it can come down. There's definitely risk in trading a stock like NWBO, but the good news is real.

For the Dendreons of the world, stockholders can only ponder and wonder, what the hell? What is it that Northwest Bio CEO Alton Boynton has that Dendreon's top brass does not? Before I leave you with a forecast of more doom and gloom, however, let's sit on the sunny side of the street. Maybe this will encourage CEO Mitchell Gold to pursue Europe with more vigor. If he has, as rumored, already turned down opportunities there in recent weeks, Northwest Bio's Great Leap Forward could prove to be a catalyst.

In other words, Dendreon's Board of Directors might pull their heads out of the sand and light a fire under Gold's okole. If a $29 million Co can do it, what's stopping Dendreon and its well-heeled (re: new slate of options) executives?

Gloom for longs? Yes. But the pressure is mounting. Good pressure.

Disclaimer: Pupule Paul is long DNDN and wishes he had been long NWBO.OB.