The Apple effect is golden

Does someone here want an iPad?

7:35 am (Hawaii) You can probably remember the sight of AAPL going up dramatically - from 80 to 200 in one year, for example - only to sell off drastically. You made a great realized or paper profit, wondering what was the justification for a selloff. Sometimes, it was about profit-taking. Sometimes, it was about hedge funds on the verge of collapse, having to raise case (from profitable trade) immediately.

I think gold (down 2.1% to 1,776/oz) and silver (down 4.1% to 39.15) are selling off in this down session for that reason. The hedgies are desperate to raise cash, and they realize they can always go back into gold, particularly, at another time. I woke up a few minutes ago to find the Dow Jones down 255 points. Not a shock since futures were down more than 100 points when I hit the sack last night.

What is a surprise is that AAPL is at 408 after hitting an all-time high of 411. The only news I found in a brief search is that 1 in 6 Americans are now using an electronic reading device. I suppose that's bullish for AAPL and AMZN. But trading in this cut-throat environment means there will eventually - later today? - be immense profit-taking in those two. Last one out, rotten egg.

My Regular watch list is 20% green. TVIX, EDZ, FAZ (+8.7%), ZSL, TZA, VXX ... it looks like 2008 or '09. CMG, GMCR, TLT, AAPL and LULU are also up more than 2%. SBUX is 1.9% up.

My Metals watch list is basically the same, 21% green. FAZ, ZSL, SCO, are the few leaders. ZSL is up 6.6% and DZZ is up 1.8%. Silver continues to be shorted by the banksters, probably the same banksters who claim to be long gold. They are stuck with these immense short positions (JPM), so what else would they do?

I might actually turn on the TV this morning, but they were chattering about Greek default and yadayada yesterday. It's probably more of the same Euro debt crisis/contagion fear. US Dollar up 1.5% to 77.78 and Euro is down 1.1% to 1.36. The FOMC meets on the 21st (Wednesday). I do not want to be extended in any way until after that meeting. Staying all cash for now.

There goes AAPL, back up to 409.90.

Photo: MKT 300 Rodgers

This brawl ain't over

12:00 pm (Hawaii) Yesterday's moves were almost entirely on sharply lower volume. Today?

AGQ: Tue 1.7 million shares, Wed 1.6 mil

DGP: Tue 688k, Wed 997k

EDZ: Tue 2.3 mil, Wed 2.3 mil

FAZ: Tue 13.0 mil, Wed 13.3 mil

GLD: Tue 10.9 mil, Wed 13.3 mil

GPL: Tue 2.1 mil, Wed 3.3 mil

SCO: Tue 1.4 mil, Wed 2.3 mil

SLV: Tue 30 mil, Wed 40 mil

And so on. I'm not a fan of SLV or GPL (due for a pullback after a massive run). But AGQ doesn't lie. It was up on almost even volume. Gold plays, even GLD, up on significant increased volume.

FAZ is perplexing at times, but it's neither bearish or bullish after today's 6% gain. I'm tempted to open a small position but I'm leaning toward waiting overnight. Same with SCO, though for different reasons. SCO and UCO are just wickedly flip-floppy. Obama wanted lower gas prices and he's getting it. But crude oil could bounce back on any craziness in the ME. Depends on how you feel about the presence of US Navy in the region; does it quell resistance and lead to US takeover of Iraqi/etc oil fields? Or does it lead to conflict?

Here are the biggest losers off my Metals/etc list:

UCO 43.25, -7.4%, Tue 2.5 mil, Wed 3.9 mil

FAS 22.54, -6.6%, Tue 23.9 mil, Wed 27.5 mil

CU 38.58, -4.9%, Tue 75k, Wed 4.9 mil

COPX 17.48, -3.8%, Tue 46k, Wed 236k

AG 16.88, -2.6%, Tue 1.1 mil, Wed 1.1 mil

Miners make up a big chunk of today's losers. But note how copper got destroyed (CU, COPX). Is this a blow-off top? Or is all this exiting volume an indication that the market will be dead money for some time. I think it's the latter. Plenty of people went on vacation, and a lot of the leftover traders got out today. AAPL at 325-326 ... that's dead money for awhile. 

This is looking like a knock-down, drag-out alley fight that could go on for days or weeks. Months maybe. But the scent of positive economic numbers will give us a quick dead-cat bounce opportunity here and there.

Content to sit in mostly cash and let it all shake out. Acquire more physical metal bit by bit.

The next move

Update 11:40 am (Hawaii) Sure, Spot Silver and the rest of the PMs could continue lower. I'm thinking Spot Silver goes to 30 even though there's been enough correcting (i.e. carnage) and 34 should be the pivot point. But are physical silver buyers waiting? Looks like they aren't. I already wrote about one site running out of Johnson Matthey 10-ounce silver bars. Now another shop has gone out of stock of Silvertowne bars. This comes after the shop ran out of Academy bars and an "our choice" bar, both being the cheaper end of their collection. I still haven't talked myself into buying bars, especially since I decided yesterday to wait ... and prices declined huge today. 

If the physical buyers are right — and traders like Jon Najarian have already ended their SLV put/ZSL call trades — then Spot Silver may bounce soon enough. But there's also this: Spot could bounce here for a day or two, then sell off again next week. I wouldn't put it past CME and the Fed to shoot down commodities to square one, as a talking head said earlier. Nope, if I'm getting in it'll be with a very small position, both paper and physical. 

So what is the next move? I already missed the 'easy money' with ZSL. I'll project and reject out loud here ... if Spot Silver sinks to 30, ZSL will be around 30. If and when Spot Silver then rallies to 40, ZSL will pull back to 18 or 19. Then, if and when Spot Silver craters back to 25, ZSL would run to 35, closer to 40. I don't know exactly why Spot Silver will sell off more in empirical, fundamental terms. I do know human nature, and the metal bears in control will continue to devour without end, with a bit of a pause coming soon. 

Is that enough of a projection? 

So, if equities then follow commodities into the toilet in a week, maybe by mid or late May, what would be the short-term play, especially as June (QE2 coming to an "end") nears? There's always FAZ, which I haven't touched in at least a year. There's QID, EDZ ... and not a whole lot more. And DUST, DZZ, GLL, DGZ — all gold and gold miner bear ETFs. And there's UUP if the dollar keeps climbing, which I doubt will happen. But it all comes back to Spot Silver and ZSL. If CME and the Fed decide to punish Spot Silver to the fullest, it goes back to 19 and ZSL could go to 50, where it was last fall. 

Going into tomorrow's economic news and the end of the week, I probably will remain out of the market. Nothing is worth holding over this weekend. I could buy some Spot Silver and/or Gold plays, but I'd be forced to get some bear ETFs as a hedge. A net zero result, probably, which is a waste of time for peon retail traders like me. The thesis here is no thesis, and therefore no game plan. Yet. 

Update 1:19 pm (Hawaii) Leaning toward no physical purchases for now. Much as I love the look and feel of metal (granted I have a teeny collection of silver coins), it makes no sense to buy physical when it's still at a relatively high level. The time to get physical was a year ago, when Spot Silver was 18 or less ... when Spot Gold was at 1000. When a lot of people did not want to buy ... two years ago. The lack of access to trade for physical PMs is the deciding factor for me. Sure, there are dealers that will pay over spot for your physical. But that's worthwhile only while Spot prices are rising, not declining. So I'm holding off. Probably. 

Meanwhile, ZSL is up to 24.41 in afterhours trading. The volatility of PM tools like ZSL and SLV provide far more opportunity for profits (and losses) than hoarding gold or silver coins/bars. So the plan here for physical is to wait for continued bottoming, and if that means wait until Spot Silver loses another 30%, so be it. Until then, my focus will be on trading. 

And ZSL is now at 24.50 with 35 minutes left before afterhours trading ends. A lot of fear still in the PM market? Isn't the 5th margin hike already built into prices? Then again, this may encourage me to finally get my first silver bar or a few more coins. 

Update: 1:27 pm (Hawaii) I'd love to get both a few more coins and a bar. The Scottsdale Silver Stacker (10-oz) is beautiful and aesthetically appealing, but it hasn't come off its $394.99 price since the new price was posted earlier today. At that time, Spot Silver was roughly at 38 or 37/oz. With Spot Silver now at 34.40, I don't see the Stacker fairly priced until it gets to 375 or lower. I'm a little greedy that way. 

Same with the Scottsdale Silver Academy (hand poured 10-oz) bar. It's been at $397.99 since the price change earlier today. Needs to get lower. 

Sydney taking Spot Silver lower and lower ... Spot Gold, too. 

Silver American Eagles are murky to me. Sure, they're minted by the US, but paying $5 over spot ... I'm more interesting in accumulating PMs, not the collectible panache. That might sound hypocritical since I like the look of that Scottsdale stacker, but the American Eagle just isn't overly pretty to me. I'd take a few at a cheap price, though. 

Scottsdale Silver "stacker" = $394/10-oz bar

Update 2:02 pm (Hawaii) Spot Silver at 34.33. Sydney not bullish. Hong Kong opens shortly. 

Spot Gold at 1474. 

ZSL closed AH trading at 24.57. 

Update 2:54 pm (Hawaii) Avery Goodman's piece on the roiling silver market. He believes both silver and platinum will rise sooner rather than later. 

Hong Kong has opened. Spot Silver at 34.70. Spot Gold at 1486. 

Avery Goodman: The last great opportunity in silver and platinum (May 4 2011)

Update 7:31 pm (Hawaii) Always a welcome sight, a chart interpreted artistically by The Fly. I think this one should auction off in the six figures, minimum. 

But seriously, he has already indicated that Spot Silver is heavily oversold according to his in-house algo, the PPT. In fact, Le Fly has noted that there has never been a single vehicle as oversold as silver. Then again, when machines are running everything, there's no telling when the end of the carnage will happen. If ever. 

Dual duplicity

7:08 am (Hawaii) Just got up from a good night's rest. Such a flat market. My recently-made Metals Watch List is only 15% green, lowest level ever, with only bear ETFs green with one exception: XG (Extorre Gold). XG is up 6.9%. That's it. Spot Silver is below 40 as of the past hour. Spot Gold plunged to 1509.

The chameleon traders who rode Spot Silver up and are riding it down are banking big buccos. ZSL, the double silver bear ETF, is up 11.7% today. That's on top of the 30% gain already this week. Traders are making more money more quickly on ZSL than they did on Spot Silver. There's no way I would've leaned toward a position in ZSL yesterday when it was at 17.50. But there seems to be no apparent reason for anyone to buy silver, even at this level, and the lack of buyers is killing the price.

Nimble traders riding momentum. You can understand fundamentals to the fullest, but knowing where the big money is going matters most. ZSL was at 14 on Monday. Can it climb more today and tomorrow? Certainly. But again, as selling a decliner early or not at all is sometimes best, buying a rocket launcher like ZSL early rather than at the near-term top is preferable. After gaining 40% in 3 1/2 days, this is thin ice territory.

As for Spot Silver, 37.50 looks like a reasonable support level, a 50% retrace of the recent run to 49+. Great for physical silver buyers and swing traders on the bullish side. Painful for traders on the buy-and-hold side. AGQ, the double bull silver ETF, was at 370 or 380 last week. I got out with a $4/share loss. Now it's at 235.61, close to its low of 231.10. My regular watch list is only 20% green. The only stock worse off today is OPEN, down 14.3%.

Up today: GMCR (77.20 +20.6%), VCLK (18.48 +12.3%), HAIN (35.12 (+5.5%), TVIX (25.94 +5.3%), EDZ (18.07 +4.7%), TZA (35.89 +4.3%).

Game plan remains simple: 100% cash.

Update 7:39 am (Hawaii) It's always interesting to see bloggers with strong convictions get more balanced with changing climates. SGS (SilverGoldSilver.com) is one of my favorite blogs. I disagree with some things there, but generally, I appreciate the candor and intensity of his convictions. He realized that buying puts would help protect his assets, but his critics are flaming him. I've never used puts, but I understand the practicality and profitability of protection. It's insurance in a bloody market.

It's no far-fetched guess that if all of us had known Spot Silver would crash like this, most of us would've protected our positions by getting some ZSL. I got out with SLV at 46.75 and AGQ at 369.44. That was that. But if I'd opened just a tiny position in ZSL — it was at 13 last week — it would've been a good momentum read. I'm just not that astute.

Update 7:53 am (Hawaii) The news on Extorre Gold Mines (XG) last week was about "high grade to bonanza grade gold-silver results from the first 3 of 21 diamond drill holes completed to date on a discovery named Zoe at Cerro Moro, Santa Cruz Province, Argentina." Now XG says it's up to 10 drill holes that are showing this level of gold and silver. The Zoe spot is familiar for anyone who watched the company's video recently. I like the way they market their stuff. The co-chairman seems quite transparent. But I didn't believe enough to invest even a tiny position.

ZG closed at 9.03 yesterday. Now at 9.64, off the HOD of 9.91. XG has pulled back 31% on its gain today, which is approaching a level I like. I am NOT a gold bug, never bought a miner stock before. But this video from last week is entertaining enough, especially on a rotten day for precious metals.



Update 8:14 am (Hawaii) Other gold miners with positive news today are Continental Gold (CNL) and Kirkland Lake Gold (KGI). See the story here.

Also, PAAS is one of the rare silver plays that is positive today, up 1.6% to 34.37. A report says PAAS has "provided an update on the situation in Boliva and San Vicente."

Update 8:43 am (Hawaii) Spot Silver is rebounding a bit. EXK has risen steadily and is now back above 10. PAAS continues its comeback and is at 34.50.

Some thoughts on the smaller gold and silver miners. NGD has floundered lately, but is one of the gold miners that really pops when momo is on its side. Currently down 1.8%to 10.01. No news lately.

Extorre is a spin-off from Exeter. Yale Simpson, a co-chairman at Extorre Gold Mines, is executive chairman of Exeter, which is trading just above $3/share. Exeter's focus is in Chile; Extorre is in Argentina. The company logos are virtually twins. Here's a video of Simpson talking about Exeter's projections last November.

As the host of the video (done by Even Keel Media) indicated at the end of another video, Extorre is a sponsor of the program and the program is an investor in the company. Good transparency, but I'm more impressed by their marketing/PR efforts than anything. I don't know jack about mining.

Spot Gold was below 1510, but is now at 1517. Spot Silver is off its low, now 39.75.

Update 9:25 am (Hawaii) This video is a couple of weeks old, Max Keiser with Brad Cooke, CEO of Endeavour Silver. 

Part 1

Part 2

2010 Financials

This is pretty funny.

Update 10:37 am (Hawaii) This guy figured out how to cast his own silver ingot out of scrap silver and a tiny bit of .999 silver. He created a .925 sterling silver bar. Looks like a lot of work, but he probably had fun doing it. If the world ever goes to shit, this guy's skills will be invaluable. 

Dressing up

12 pm (Hawaii) So is this it? Has the end-of-month/end-of-quarter window dressing begun? When I hit the sack around 5 or 6 am Hawaii time (noonish Eastern), it seemed the market was going to drift in small currents forever. Of course, nothing stays the same in the market for long. The market went bozo bullish as I slept, sending 75% of my watch list to the green side after being inept earlier.

DJIA 12,279 (+0.67%), Nasdaq 2,756 (+0.96%), S&P 500 1,319 (+0.71%). Again, volume wasn't impressive, but it was about 20% higher in the "axis" of stocks, AAPL. Monday was a low in volume for the year. Tuesday saw more action. Wednesday is the 30th of March and Thursday is the end of the month. I'd say odds are 70% that window dressing has begun. By that math, the edge is 40% (70 vs. 30), but am I willing to indulge myself with 40% of my roll in play? Or to be risk-addicted about it, place some bets that allow for 40% swing down? Yes to the former and no the latter. We're still somewhat toppy here and the chances of a) a selloff after window dressing and b) negative news about QE3 would easily send the market down the mountain like a wild eagle pushing goats off the ledge.

For now, however, just about everything finished green today, and big on the win side. WNR gained 1.9% to 17.10 after being in red early. Le Fly wins again on his call for oil refiners to slice through any market turmoil. He's right.

AAPL, which sold off to a hair above 346 early, is at 351.30 in afterhours trading. My position in AAPL at the end of last week was opened at 346.75 and I sold at 350.65, which clearly is a range within the larger range (326 to 365). There are too many AAPL bulls who want this stock to lift, for the PE to hit 25 or 27 or 30, and that would be fair. But with the slowdown due to Japan's tragedy, I really don't see any eye-popping sales numbers in the near term. Demand huge, but customers will have to wait. AAPL will be fine long term, but it just won't hit 400 as soon as I or anyone else had expected.

This is not a bad thing. I could buy at 345 (mid-point of the larger range) and sell at 350 over and over again without extreme concern over risk. I didn't do it today, but it's there. What other stock are you going to ride as comfortably? CHGS? LULU?

CHGS 3.54 (+20.4%), MCP 60.10 (+8.3%), CLNE 15.20 (+4.8%), LULU 89.37 (4.8%), CMG 268.00 (+3.9%), RLOC 20.55 (+3.2%), VLO 30.50 (+3.2%), AMZN 174.62 (+3.1%), EXK 9.28 (+3.1%), YZC 34.50 (+2.9%). It goes on and on. Huge gains for momo stocks. Silver plays. Even coal (YZC). China is in heat. US stocks hot, and that's with crude oil up. UCO is at 54.78 (+1.7%).

It almost didn't matter what people bought today. The bull gored every bear in sight. Big losers on my watch list were TVIX 37.49 (-5.5%), EDZ 19.12 (-3.3%), DG 30.52 (-3.1%), TZA 36.84 (-3%), VXX 29.95 (2.7%), QID 51.65 (-1.9%). Also OPEN 102.90 (-1.3%). OPEN's huge run had to stop for a breather at some point.

I wouldn't be shocked if the market reverses before tomorrow's opening bell. There's still time for hedgies to take it down fast and still re-enter before the end of the month. Unlikely, but entirely possible. I'll be waiting for a unlikely discount on my favorite plays with 100% loaded gunpowder.

Monday bull party

(11:30 am, Hawaii) Talk about complete melt-up. At one point, when I wasn't sleeping through the session, my watch list was 83% green. That's basically bullish to the extreme since the other 17% are mostly bear plays.

DJIA +1.5%, Nasdaq +1.8%, S&P 500 +1.5%.

Volume wasn't great in AAPL (14.7M), but the 2.7% run from 330.67 (Friday) to 339.73 (afterhours today) is incredible. The 100-day moving average was tested three days in a row (Wed/Thur/Fri) before bouncing today. Will the 50-day MA (346+) prove to be a ceiling?

Everything with a pulse move up, from BIDU (+3%) and GOOG (+2.6%) to Japan (EWJ (+2.2%). The yen softened; FXY slightly down (-0.4%).

LVS gained 6.4%, while other recent gainers like OPEN (+2.4%) and HAIN (+2.5%) rose.

Precious metals roared. SLW gained 5.9% to 42.25 (afterhours). EXK +5.1% to 9.62, PAAS +3.6%, PHY +2.4%, SLV +3.2%. NGD +3.4% and GLD +0.7%. Great day for the metal bugs. SLW and EXK ranked second and third on my list of gainers.

WNR, Le Fly's favorite oil refiner play, gained 4.4% to 21.59. UCO gained 1.1% (53.33).

Big losers were TVIX (-15.4%, 44.85), VXX (-7.5%, 32.70), TZA (-7.1%), EDZ (-5.1%) and QID (-3.6%). PSUN also sold off again, down 1.9% to 3.62. C also fell 1.6% to 4.43. Interestingly, X dropped 0.6%.

I'm content to stay in cash here until the puzzle is solved. Which is probably never going to happen. AAPL is my vehicle of preference, and if the runway clears for a flight to new highs, I'll get a ticket. Until then, this is a range-bound titan, from 326 to 360, and there is money to be made in that space. Hat's off to those who bought at 330 on Friday.

Bloomberg: Tokyo Electric says Fukushima fuel rods damaged, leak to sea (Mar 21 2011)
Reuters: Oil lifted by Mideast unrest, Libya conflict (Mar 21 2011)
Bloomberg: Japan futures, nuclear stocks advance as reactor crisis eases (Mar 21 2011)
Business Times: AT&T's big deal lifts Wall St (Mar 21 2011)
AP: Developments in Japan's disasters, nuclear crisis (Mar 21 2011)
Business Insider: What about the Plutonium MOX? (Mar 21 2011)
The Guardian: Google accuses China of interfering with Gmail system (Mar 21 2011)

Now that is a beautiful wig

5:21 am (Hawaii). What else would you say if someone asked you about their beautiful wig? Would you ask why they had to wear one? Isn't the truth sometimes not so preferable? It is what it is. The market is wearing a wig.

After being away for most of the night, I'm home in early morning. I knew futures were imploding and the market was way, way down at the opening bell nearly two hours ago. My watch list is 18% green, 82% red and I figure it was far worse at the opening bell. But AAPL has rallied from its LOD of 340.10 and is now trading at 345.10. I didn't step in. I'm still watching from the rafters, amazed and horrified by everything going on in this global village of ours. I've been in 100% cash for many days now, with the exception of an overnight trade in AAPL (more like over-weekend) that broke even.

Though AAPL and many stocks are off their lows, I hardly believe they're about to return to yesterday's closing prices. There will be a penalty assessed to the market whether justified or not. The heroism can be someone else's trait. I'll wait until the aftershocks wane and the radiation levels peter out. It could be awhile.

Off the edge: NGD 9.40 (-7.5%), UCO 49.21 (-6.8%), FAS 27.80 (-6.7%), EXK 8.42 (-6%), SLW 39.40 (-5.5%).

The few: TVIX 53.45 (+12.4%), EDZ 22.63 (+7.5%), VXX 35.35 (+6.1%), NFLX 211.48 (+5.1%), TZA 43.98 (+4.9%), QID 55.65 (+3.9%).

These winners, all contrary plays with the exception of NFLX, are off their highs as the market rallies from today's lows. TVIX opened at 57.94. EDZ opened at 23.49. VXX opened at 37.05. TZA opened at 44.73. QID opened at 56.70.

Can't help but wonder how much of the mini-comeback today is due to Fed injection and how much is truly coming from retail and street.

Also, Le Fly remains genius. His call on oil refiners, namely WNR, remains stout. WNR is up 1.6% to 16.24. It opened at 15.50.

Update, 6:32 am (Hawaii). AAPL above 347 for some time, a nice bounce off LOD (340+). Trader's dream. If anything is going to rally off a low, it would the maker of iPad 2 (and the whole smorgasbord of space-alien technology). If only Apple had a solution to the potential meltdowns in Japan. 

Market is remotely healthy now: DJIA -1.5%, Nasdaq -1.5%, S&P 500 -1.46%. 

WNR up 2.75% to 16.43. Refiners look rock solid today and possibly for some time to come. So why won't I step in? 

Odd movers include PSUN (+3.1%), NFLX (+6.7% to 214.57) and F (+0.9% to 14.42). NFLX up on an upgrade. Really. 

Update, 6:41 am (Hawaii). AAPL finally cooling off after the runup off the LOD. Another case of 50% factor. AAPL closed yesterday at 353.56, bottomed today at 340.10. A 50% retrace of the drop puts AAPL at 346.83. AAPL wound up rallying to 347.84, now at 345.87. Human nature can't be measured perfectly, but there are often some fairly reliable areas worth observing. 

Tuesday reading

Sign of the times: Nukalert keychain

AP: Security official says Saudi soldier shot dead by opposition protester in Bahrain (Mar 15 2011)

Run Red Hot: Silver toppings 2 (Mar 12 2011)

Business Insider: Did lunar perigee amplify the Japan quake? (Mar 11 2011)

Business Insider: Dennis Gartman: Nobody's laughing at me anymore for my warning about the 'super moon' (Mar 11 2011)

Timeout Tokyo: Japan earthquake: How you can help

ChessNwine: Defense wins championships (Mar 15 2011)

Ladies and gents, a little turbulence

3:25 am (Hawaii). For your Thursday morning pleasure, strap on those seat belts and hold on for the ride. Premarket is 25 minutes in and only 22% of my watch list is in the green. 57% is red, and there's 21% that haven't traded yet.

GMCR is still riding its momo from yesterday, as is HGSI (FDA approved their new drug). SBUX is up, as is AZK. But everything else that's up is money running to safety: EDZ (+3.9%), TVIX (+3.1%), VXX (+2.7%), TZA (+2.4%), QID (+1.6%).

Silver plays are scraping the bottom of the barrel. SLW (-3.8%), SLV (-2.4%), PAAS (-2.8%). Gold plays like NGD (-1.3%) are also struggling along.

If the S&P 500 peels back half of its two-year gain (from 666 to 1333), that would take it back to 1,000. That's a 25% crash if the house of cards falls again. Are you prepared for that possibility? I am. I'm still all cash, paranoid but willing to dip in for a quick trade here and there.

If this is simply a 5% or 10% pullback, so be it. It was going to happen sooner or later. When NFLX and LULU finally burst their bubbles, what else did the market need to tell us? LULU ran wild about three or four years ago, marking the inferno of that run. NFLX at 247 was preposterous, and now at 192, it seems far more reasonable. As the old saying goes, if you're going to get out, get out fast or don't get out at all.

If you are certain QE3 is coming, it would make no sense to sell anything that was bought at the recent top. Unless you're also certain that equities are going to fall much, much more (and give you a cheaper re-entry price) between now and the end of June.

EDZ trading at its high of premarket (21.17, +4.3%). Tempting, but I'll wait.

AAPL? Inching back toward its premarket low (below 350).

Update, 3:40 am (Hawaii). El Stinky. Futures are all over the place. Crude oil has been driven down below 103 after being near 105 early in the morning. Gold has started to rally after being beaten down, but silver has been punished mercilessly, hovering just above 35. Copper, meanwhile, has rallied after taking a pummeling this week.

The three worst performers on my watch list are now all silver plays: EXK (-4.8%), SLW (-3.5%) and PAAS (-2.9%). UCO is right there, too, down 2.5%.

21% green, 68% red on my watch list. That's astounding, considering the number of contrary plays involved. It's been awhile since an early Friday selloff turned around by the closing bell. As always, watching from the rafters with superpowered technology for my sight. Keeping my cash buried in its treasure box nearby.

Update, 4:13 am (Hawaii). This is downright ugly. 19% of my watch list green. 70% now red. Egad.

TZA keeps climbing higher, now up 3.9%. Just an hour ago, it was up "only" 2.4%. Interesting fact: Two years ago, in March of 2009, TZA traded at a "translated" 1,494, or more than 37x its current price of 40.13. I can't imagine any catastrophe that would send TZA to that level again, but it's amusing to think about. Unless you're short TZA. Then today sucks.

Update, 11:49 am (Hawaii). Dow Jones -228.48 (-1.87%). Nasdaq -50.70 (-1.84%), S&P 500 -24.91 (-1.89%). Where was Big Brother? Maybe it would've been worse without him putting a floor under the market. But suggestions that tomorrow, the Day of Rage in several Middle East nations, will have no POMO support for the US market is intriguing. If this is true, why is UCO down 1.5% today? True, UCO is off its LOD of 52.91 after Saudi Arabia opened fire (non-lethal weapons) on protestors today. But at 54.02, is Day of Rage already baked into this level for crude oil? Is there really plenty of supply domestically? Or is something else going to keep a lid on the price?

Crude oil futures went from 101.50 or so to 104+ in a span of 15 minutes when the shooting began. Now trading at 102.45. I've always believed that the Fed can and will put a ceiling or a floor on any market for the best the interests of America. No different here.

Afterhours, 30% of my watch list is green, a nice improvement from earlier levels (17%). GMCR is up 41.4% on the news of its deal with Starbucks. SBUX up 8.8%. HGSI is up 12.7% and NFLX made a run (+3.6%) after the recent beatdown. OPEN (+1.6%), CLNE (+1%), BIDU and CMG all showed signs of life.

EDZ (22.10, +8.9%) and TZA (41.89, +8.4%) were bulldozers. Triple-short ultra ETFs aren't exactly my preference, but both finish much higher than they opened (gap ups). TZA (small-cap bear) gained another 6% from where I first saw it in premarket. Can EDZ (emerging-cap bear) change direction while Day of Rage begins in hours? Hard to chase something almost up 10%; Few stocks can maintain momentum past that level of gain no matter how hot.

TVIX (49.63, +11.2%) and VXX (34.02, +5.5%) ran well today. QID (53.86, +3.1%) was another gainer.

AAPL is at 347.45 (-1.4%) afterhours after a low of 344.90. Silver plays were pillaged, to no surprise. SLW (40.85, -5.9%), EXK (8.82, -5.7%), PAAS (35.39, -4.5%), SLV (34.42, -2.4%) all sucked, but after huge gains in a short time, that's the nature of the beast. Can the regular retail trader/investor really beat JP Morgan and the Fed? The smart, willing puppets traded in and out on the momentum before this week's dip. Stubborn puppets are being toyed with. SLW dipped all the way to 40.22; a drop below 40 would be a major psyche-out move and spook out remaining weak hands.

I want to believe in a resumption of a silver explosion, especially when so much of the demand is driven by China. But if China inflation continues, will it continue hoarding silver or simply take a pause? How dangerous would it be for silver longs if China silver imports stalled or pulled back? Silver has doubled in the past year, which had even silver bulls cautioning newbies about consolidation. It's a fascinating tale to watch unfold. But I remain 100% cash here.

No matter how realistic the perspective, even if you've made good trades within the vortex of negativity via stuff like TZA or EDZ or TVIX, even hungry bears will claw and devour each other when there is no other prey. The market needs to bounce at least a little at some point before things get too lopsided to one end of the ship. Are NFLX and BIDU telling us the worst is over for this week? There isn't a positive catalyst in sight unless NATO gets involved ... it seems.

AAPL 6 month, daily

Update, 12:52 pm (Hawaii). I like it when professionals talk in practical terms. Pete Najarian (Fast Money) noted that AAPL touched its 50-day moving average today, and that's where he stepped in. Is iPad 2 mania*, which will be unveiled at 5 p.m. Eastern tomorrow, going to kick start the next trading range for AAPL? Can AAPL defeat Day of Raaaaaaage??

Thursday Evening News
Jesse's Cafe Americain: Blythe strikes back (Mar 10 2011) "The greatest curse is an early and easy success, and the euphoria of thinking we are greater than we really are. ... Take your positions and hold them, without leverage, and with realistic expectations."
CBS/WFRV-TV: Wisconsin majority leader receives death threats (Mar 10 2011)

Longings of a madman

9:24 pm (Hawaii). One convenient aspect of watching futures charts is that I don't have to follow global news to figure out what might be going on. Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are tanking overnight. Crude oil was back above 105 (now 104.85). Gold is back over 1430 and silver is staying above 36. For now.

Copper continues to be ravaged and pillaged. Who knows what happens by the opening bell, but apparently, someone in Libya is not in a good mood.

Day of Rage just two days, no, 1 1/2 days away.

I don't trade futures, have no plans to do so. I don't care much about the details of copper and cotton, etc., except for the one thing the commodities tell me in general: when demand for industrial metals plummets, we're all in for a long, mediocre ride. The market goes flat (especially without QE3) and there are few winners on either side of a trade. 

I'd love to see silver explode as much as the next guy, but it still reeks of overconfident, arrogant bullish mania as Dendreon did a few years back. We don't know exactly who's playing who, and we don't know exactly who's a shill or not in some cases. We don't know if JP Morgan is truly teetering on the brink of collapse due to (fill in your theory here), or if they're simply honoring a longtime tradition of planting shills among the rest of us, encouraging the average Joe to dive headfirst and 100% into a "sure thing" like silver. Then came the rush of DNDN naked shorts that hammered the masses in "flash crashes" that were precursors to the actual market-wide Flash Crash of two years ago. 

That's part of the reason why I enjoy the view from the rafters. I'll get in and out occasionally, but long-term holding is out of the question. Marrying any stock (or short) right now warrants a thorough mental examination. 

Update, 9:52 pm (Hawaii). Adding EDZ and TZA to the watch list in the morning. Still like UCO as a hedge if I dare go long AAPL, but that's not a comfortable situation, not even close. The only way I'd go long AAPL is if the situation in Libya, Yemen and Saudi Arabia were cooled off, starting with the removal of said madman. Appears that won't be happening anytime soon, at least not with help from US naval forces. Unless this info is all a trick. Then that would be a very cool trick. 

Bears block party

Holding inverse ETNs, particularly the ultra sort, can be hazardous to one's trading account. Overnight, the readjusting that goes on can swoop in and steal your profits. VXX declined 400,000% in the past year. OK, I'm exaggerating a bit, but it was painful for anyone who dared to buy VXX a year ago and simply hold. It's not a buy-and-hold vehicle and never was intended to be.

Today, though, was a win for bears and ETNs. Here's how the list I compiled a few months back did today:

BGZ +9.32%
DPK +10.28%
DRV +9.58%
DXD +5.24%
DUG +6.22%
EDZ +11.72%
EEV +7.97%
EFU 6.75%
EFZ +3.39%
EPV +7.47%
EUO +1.29%
FAZ +10.48%
FXP +7.96%
LHB +13.97%
QID +7.58%
SDS +6.07%
SKF +7.44%
SMN +8.33%
SRS +6.13%
TMF +3.49%
TWM +7.54$
TYP +10.89%
TZA +11.25%
VXX +9.26%
ZSL +2.73%

The time to commit to these inverses was before today, of course. Getting in now is perilous considering the news today from China, Europe, Venus, the Dark Star and beyond isn't any worse than it has been in the past months. None of it was really unexpected. If the market bounces tomorrow or Thursday (first day of the new quarter), that won't be a shocker.

But keeping a close eye on all these inverse ETNs and the movement is key. Know the pulse before entering.