No burying gold for long

photo: MSNBC

10:36 am (Hawaii) Gold continues to show a tendency to quietly draw attention from near and far, high and low. Spot is at 1567, slightly off its high of the day. Spot silver recovered some today after yesterday's butchery by CME mafia. It opened lower, giving friends of JP Morgan and the govt ample opportunity to collect more silver at discounted prices. Why offer your friends a gift at all-time highs (50+) when you can give them a price at a 30% discount (35)? Yeah, it's a theory, but until we straighten things out with our creditors, there's no quicker way to appease them than by keeping silver price low as possible without inciting deadly riots in every major American city.

It's one of the few mechanisms left to the puppet masters, so applaud them for their concerted, if short-sighted attempts. Thank them for lower physical prices.

The flight to gold helped miners, naturally. XG ran as high as 14.67 before pulling back a bit as daytraders cashed out. The presence of metal royalty like Eric Sprott in the stock only solidifies the foundation. Getting out of AGQ yesterday and holding XG didn't take much thought. They — the puppeteers — will bitch slap silver in a way that they would never do to gold for very long.

XG up 3.3% (14.50 afterhours). DGP up 1.5% to 50.79. I've held this through some minor ups and downs. No plans to sell in the near term.

After rallying to the plus side, the indices finished down. DJ -58.88 (-0.5%), Nas -20.71 (-0.7%), S&P -5.85 (-0.4%).

AAPL finished down by a fraction after being up most of the day. AMZN, also down fractionally. BIDU down 2.3% after a nice run. Also down just by a hair, NFLX (290.50).

As for the banksters: NBG (+2.5%), BBVA (+0.8%) were up. IRE (-3.8%), C (-1.8%), BAC (-1.3%), GS (-1.2%). FAZ swung from a big early gain down into the red before finishing at 46.80 (+0.8%). Moody's downgrade Ireland govt bonds today. Story in the NY Times.

This is the roller coaster of trading in — for or against — bank stocks. Anything can alter direction. I would love to be a zillionaire and bet on FAZ big time, not worry about a paper loss for a day or two. I don't have that luxury, so I sit here and whine about it on a blog. Though Obama is long treasurys, I still wouldn't bet on the banksters with my own money. There is no long-term solution to the currency/inflation crisis. Just a bunch of stop-gap tactics.

I wish I still had my shares of FAZ at 43.33. End whine.

Thesis and substance

6:41 am (Hawaii) It helps tremendously to back up a thesis with some commitment, if just a partial position. I seem to lack the cajones to do this, apparently. FAZ is one of the preferred vehicles of choice in this June swoon. Come on, didn't you think most traders would run from the possibility of no QE3? I did. But I bought FAZ at near a recent high, then sold yesterday at a loss. The one day in the past week it drops, and I sell. (Last week, I bought at 46.40 and sold at a small loss, too.)

So much for thesis. Finnies? GS (-0.3%), BAC (-1.5%), JPM (-1.7%), C (-1.8%), NBG (-2.8%), STD (-3.3%), IRE (-6.2%). They'll slide and more banks will close, but it's all just a path to consolidation. What the big money lacks in breadth and depth, it will hold even more in the way of pure power. If things get to that dire scenario — hyperinflation, no cash in the ATMs, etc. — it'll still be important to be self-sufficient. But even if things don't get extreme, I still don't trust them banksters. They could jack up service fees far beyond what they do today, always to the brink of pissing the public off, but never too far. They need to keep us borderline solvent, the better to bleed us to death over time. That's why I'm figuring out how much actual fiat, physical metal, food and ammo to have on hand before things get to that point. It's a necessity I don't like.

I just woke up to find FAZ at 51.63, which would've been a paper profit of about $475 or so. Pretty decent. But since I lack commitment in my thesis, it's just chatter. 21% of my Metals list is green. 79% red. This was expected. Yesterday's dead-cat bounce came on horribly low volume. Today's volume is stronger; we're only halfway through and most stocks/etfs are close or above yesterday's totals.

MCP, which is up 2.8%, has strong volume today. XG is up 3.2%. But most of the green gainers on the Metals list are bear plays. ZSL (+5.1%), DUST (+2.9%), FSG (+2.1%), DZZ (+1.4%).

Still 90% cash with a small position in DGP. If Spot Gold (1535) and Silver (36.66) can't regain today's smallish decline, I'll look to add physical below 1520 and 34. Summer and gold have not been a good combination for the past two years, but conditions are exacerbated this time. Picking my spots.

Flatulent Friday: Are we toppy now?

Dow Jones 10,450.64 +16.47 +0.16%
NASDAQ 2,309.80 +2.64 +0.11%
S&P 500 1,117.51 +1.47 +0.13%

Between quad witching and the overwhelming emotional baggage of 1) BP's Gulf oil disaster, 2) Euro percolation, 3) renewed fears of US housing/jobs/financials fuck ups, 4) China inflation, 5) North Korean shitstinkery and more, the market simply seemed exhausted by today. What little buying there was surely was limited to a minority of issues like AAPL, which closed at an all-time high of 274.07 on 30 million shares traded — roughly 25% more volume than usual.

While there wasn't a whole lot of buying pressure, there was even less selling pressure. There are all kinds of reasons for this, but the main one is simple: With $27 billion outflowing from the market so far this year, it's all been reduced to trading desks, high-frequency trading machines and day traders. No blame to go around from this little tower. We wanted to eat the forbidden fruit of market capitalism, and the food chain developed instantly. Whether it's algorithms or the invention of the wheel, whoever capitalizes on new technology will usually win while the remaining masses howl with fever over disadvantage and conspiracy.

I could easily complain, but I'd rather just get a good night's sleep, wake up at a nice hour like 6 or 8 am Hawaii time, and observe. So I missed a chance to re-enter my beloved AAPL. So what. I'll get another chance sooner rather than later. AAPL run-ups are often met with ridiculously steep sell-offs, or simply continue running, especially after a few weeks of consolidation. It won't bother me to ride AAPL from 280 to 300 at all. If I can get in at 250 next week, better yet.

But this is the world we live in, when a single currency has markets fretting, and Earth's greatest tech retailer ever can be practically felled in one swoop (from 200 to 78 not so long ago) because of a housing/financial crisis.

For the record, the eight stocks I'm watching closely were mostly in the red today.

Up:
• AAPL 274.07 (+0.81%)
• SD 6.86 (+1.78%)

Down:
• CLNE 17.15 (-0.81%)
• CSTR 48.95 (-4.56%)
• GLDD 5.34 (-0.78%)
• TGP 30.03 (-0.07%)
• UNG 8.53 (-2.29%)
• WPRT 18.62 (-2%)

I'm still 100% cash, waiting for the market to settle down (which it has) and provide a clue about direction (which it hasn't).

TECH KINGS

AAPL was at 242 last week Wednesday. This feels like the consolidation months back when shares drifted between 195 and 215 before popping on what became a two-month odyssey that topped out at 272 on that climatic earnings day. Love Apple or not, the iPad and iPhone G4 are ruling the geek universe and the normal world simultaneously.

Next week is a liftoff to 300 or it pulls back to 255, maybe 250. How many stocks keep revving higher in a flat market, seven sessions in a row? I can think of one.

FINANCIALS
GS (137.82 +0.63%) and C (4.01 +1.26%) didn't move as much as their Euro counterparts. I still don't like finnies long term. Too many damned questions.

EURO

FXE was basically flat (123.36 -0.11%) while STD (11.53 +2.31%) lost roughly half of its early gain. Those boys at Banco Santander have balls of steel, calling out the Eurozone (Germany, in particular) by demanding stress tests, then grading out No. 1 in leaked reports. Then STD turns out to be a bullish buyer on both sides of the Atlantic. If Santander were a sports team, I'd be a fan. They take care of their shit.

IRE moved up big, 3.86% to 4.30. NBG lost 1.63% to 2.41, but I have no desire to touch any Greek stocks. Ever.

HEAVY METALS
FCX was flat (65.90 +0.14%) and FXI was equally quiet (40.66 +0.10%). US Steel (X) lost 1.56% to 43.41, ending a very turbulent week with ups and downs. SLV moved up again (18.75 +2.29%).

SAFE PLAYS

GLD up again (122.83 +0.76%) and gets a lot of headlines for all-time highs in the metal, but really ... so what? Sure, it gains quite a bit from a 2- or 3-year perspective, or a 5- or 10-year perspective. It's a hedge against inflation, against dwindling currencies ... and unless you hoard bars of the pretty yellow metal, your paper ownership can be "confiscated" by Uncle Sam in times of dire need.

I like gold/GLD as a small piece of the portfolio, nothing more.

TLT also flat today (97.69 -0.16%).

ENERGY
USO up 0.77% to 35.41. BP had another "boring" day with a 0.16% gain to 31.76. All BP shareholders are hoping for plenty of these quiet days.

My Nat Gas 40, a collection of the first 40 sector plays I found on the day of Obama's clean energy speech (15 days ago), was up 0.02% today. As a whole, the 40 are up 12.19%, staying flat the past few days.

Bronco Drilling (BRNC) had a massive gain of 9.84% to 4.24 today and is now up 21.8% since Obama's talk. PQ (+4%), PETD (+3.15%), NGS (+2.57%), GDP (+2.48%) also had nice moves today. In all, 18 of the 40 were in the green today.

My favorite natty gassers, WPRT (18.62 -2%) and CLNE (17.15 -0.81%) were down. UNG sold off 2.29% to 8.53. It remains a buy below 8.00 and a sell above 8.75. It's one of those notorious plays that traders love and investors hated and still hate due to its incredible lack of strength. At this level, though, it's playing fair. It just trades so freaky compared to the sector so often. It'll gain massively while the entire sector is in the red that day. Then it'll tank as high fliers with tiny floats move up, up, up.

Overall, however, this is probably as stable as the industry has been in the market for some time. All because of BP, and all because of Obama, who reiterated his stance on clean energy earlier in the week. That staved off what would've been inevitable mass selling after several natty gassers hit 20%-plus gains in less than two weeks.

Eventually, though, the sector needs another catalyst. Obama can stoke the fire only so many times. The industry needs some real roots into America's energy grid. Question is when.

Happy Father's Day weekend, everybody. Aloha!

Options madness is over ... is this market finally topping out?

So far

What a sweet night of sleep. I haven't had a week's worth of slumber this good in ages. The constant flow of steel chariots whizzing by en route to sunny Waikiki can't deprive me of those zzz's. I'm up before 9 am Hawaii time and have I missed anything in the market?

No. Of course not. Quad witching and a paralyzed retail flock have left most trading to the desks and robots. Factor in the $27 billion that has pulled out of the market since Jan. 1 and the lingering effects of the Flash Crash and we have what is, essentially, a mostly empty beach. Nobody's wading in the water. They know sharks are nearby.

Market is flat (Dow Jones +27). There are a lot of stocks hovering just above break-even with a few that are up big. AAPL is up just 1%, but that's a righteous 1%. Shares hit 275, an all-time high, before pulling back to 273. With an hour left before the close, uber-bulls are going to stampede in as they did at the opening bell. I'd rather wait this out and see what the weekend brings.

No, what has really moved is Banco Santander (STD), up 2.8% to 11.59. The Spanish bank king has been aggressive near (pursuing Royal Bank of Scotland) and far. They want M&T, a large regional in the Northeast. For all that aggression, STD is being rewarded.

Another Eurozone bank, IRE, is up 5.1%.

SLV is up 2.45% and GLD is up almost 1%.

IMAX dipped below 16 before finally making that long-awaited bounce and is now up 3.6%.

Nat Gas sector is middling. BRNC is up 4.4% ad GDP is up 3.3%. PQ up 3% and PETD gaining 2.8%. Most stocks on my lists are generally up slightly and a good-sized minority are down a bit. Not a lot of buying, but even less selling. Same general pattern of the past few days.

The world, it appears, is tired.

Photo: Vator News

Thunderous Thursday

Dow Jones 10,172.53 +273.28 +2.76%
NASDAQ 2,218.71 +59.86 +2.77%
S&P 500 +31.15 +2.95%

Signs of hope, as opposed to the apocalypse, prevailed today. Much as the thunder was more crackly and monotone rather than bone-rattling and spooky — volume was inept overall —it was still a winsome day for bulls.

> FXE (Euro) finished at 121.05 (+1.28%), giving bulls a long leash to go and play. In turn, UUP (Dollar) was down 1.05% to 25.38.

> Copper king FCX was up again, a whopping 5.94% to 64.36, and X (US Steel) rose 4.48% to 43.19. Key moves that indicate demand is up, and judging by another positive day for FXI (40.04 +2.42%), downward momentum has been stalled. Maybe reversed.

> Rotation is in play, apparently, as GLD (119.08 -1.31%) and TLT (96.19 -1.79%) retreated again. A majority of traders and investors in gold aren't going to make round trips to and from stocks, but the ones who do are traveling in relative safety. Road bandits were nowhere to be seen today.

> Energy rose to the rafters. Oil had been trading up even with BP deep underwater, pun intended. But BP finally bounced off its lowest share price in 13 years and finished at 32.78 (+12.26%). That killed inverse oil ETNs like SCO (-4.77%) and DTO (-5.00%). Nimble traders who owned BP through this catastrophe wisely scooped up SCO and/or DTO as insurance and escaped disaster.

> More energy: Natural gas continued its climb after a short pullback. In the week since Obama raved* about clean energy, most of the 40 natty gassers on my list are up significantly. Earlier today, all 40 were in the green. The strong finish made this a 40-for-40 day in the natty gassers. I doubt this will ever happen again.

One strange phenomenon was that UNG was often among the nat gas leaders when the market had pullbacks in the past five sessions. The much despised vehicle has reverted back to its former self while almost all natty gassers rocket higher. UNG gained a measly 0.13% (7.99). The other 39 gained at least 1.29% and as much as 9.67% (CRZO). The top 10 nat gas plays today were CRZO (19.74), DIG (29.41 +9.53%), BEXP (17.78 +8.22%), PETD (23.78 +8.2%), ROSE (24.87 +7.38%), NGS (16.07 +7.28%), KWK (13.12 +7.19%), HERO (2.77 +6.95%), PXJ (15.25 +6.64%) and COG (36.36 +6.38%).

> Financials had their day, too, more on the Eurozone side than here. STD launched 10.23% (9.90) after dipping below 9 yesterday. IRE gained 8.59% (3.92) and NBG lifted 2.24% (2.28). FAS had another knockout performance (22.60 +9.5%).

It wasn't a perfect day. Lack of volume plus lack of leadership by GS, which was down 2.21% (133.77). GS traded as low as 131.30 and as high as 137.77. C wasn't much to cheer about either with gain of 0.78% (3.90). C has usually been a productive vehicle with an entry point below 3.60, but turns into a pumpkin often enough at this level. It might have enough legs to reach 4.10, but would be it, normally.

FXY (Yen) closed down 0.14% to 108.51, and that released some of the pressure on the market.

So many moving parts and one breakdown could put the engine out of whack again. Until then, souped up plays like BIDU (72.63 +7.76%) and NFLX (118.66 +2.8%) will work.

In spite of the lack of perfection, AAPL was impressive. After selling down to 242-plus, shares ran up to 250.51 by the close, near its high of the day (+3%). GOOG also finished well at 498.01 (+2.74%).

They both traded below average volume. So maybe they gain volume tomorrow, inflows increase back to the market and we can put our rose-tinted glasses on again. Or the lack of conviction turns the market back into a race for the exits tomorrow (or next week) when momentum shifts.

I'm still paranoid. All this information is nice. Charts are cool. But the guessing game is not that fun and traders who stepped away and went on vacation for the past few weeks are mostly doing as well or better than most of us who have stayed close to the action. Going long AAPL, for example, wasn't a serious consideration this morning, so I spent most of the day sleeping like most people in my time zone.

I imagine there are a lot of Apple/AAPL fans out there who are wary of stepping into the water again, especially when volume is unlikely to match rallies of February-April of this year, or 2009.

Enjoy the bounce!

Chicken or the egg?

Doesn't matter which came first to the bulls. They're doing the funky chicken dance this morning with the Dow up 212 points (+2.2%, down from its highs, but still...), NAS +40 (+1.9%) and S&P +21 (2.1%).

Futures were juicy going into the opening bell thanks to good news from Spain and China. Lack of bad news in a market that was still oversold after that bear trap/head fake into yesterday's close, and woila: instant hammering of bears and waffling traders. (I'd classify myself as the latter.)

Some of the leaders from yesterday are kicking tail today. FCX (+4.4%, 63.39), X (+3.9%, 42.96), FXI (+2.3%, 40.00). If copper is leading this leg of the rally and China is devouring this orangey metal, along with its positive news this morning, this truly might be the bounce back to bull territory. Even SLV is up slightly.

Financials are doing solid, too, with C (+0.78%, 3.90), IRE (+6.1%, 3.83), STD (+8.3%, 9.74). FAS is up 4.9%. Ka-Powww!

Money has clearly shifted out of safe havens like GLD (-1.1%), TLT (-0.8%), UUP (-0.97%). Tech giants AAPL (+1.5%, 246.96) and (GOOG +2.1%, 483.75) are keeping pace somewhat with the market. BIDU (+3.7%, 69.90) and NFLX (+1.93%, 117.66) are doing nicely, too, but most of the top gainers on my list are two- and three-letter issues — non-NASDAQ plays.

The leader, of course, is BP, now up 12.2% to 32.74 following yesterday's 15% plunge. I don't plan on trading BP ever, but it finally hit rock bottom, no pun intended, and was due for a major bounce.

Noon Risers

GLD is steady again with a 1.76% gain to 121.30. Hate the gold bugs or love them. They don't care. They feel safe in their nuke-safe vault. UGL (ProShares Ultra Gold) is up 3.41% to 55.50 and has me a bit dazzled.

SLV is up 3.05%, which seems fair enough, but really, this ETF and the metal just don't get much respect. Conspiracy theorists can continue to claim that JP Morgan and other major house(s) manipulate the price of silver. Will that ever be proven or disproven?

IRE up 7.50% to 109.14, but I am not touching this ... I think. At 3.99, the moves are so sudden and swift. I'd feel slightly comfortable just getting long at a much lower price and letting it go up, not worrying about intraday fluctuations. At some point in the distant future, the economic climate in Europe settles down. Just not for today or tomorrow.

Meanwhile, AAPL is making a lunch hour rally to 255.22 after falling to 252.14. Still down for the day (-0.66), and it'll be tough for shares to gain when the iPhone G4 news is built into the price and the market sells off on each minor rally.

UNG is hanging tough again, up 15 cents to 8.33. I got out at 8.02. Again, UNG is resistant to market forces. 32 of the 39 nat gas stocks I'm watching are positive toady, including GDP (+7.31%) and KWK (+6.61%). In this roughshod market, the nat gas sector has gained true believers. At least or the past few days, anyway.

REXX, ROSE and RRC are also trading well in the nat gas field.

Pulling back

AAPL started peeling back off its high while the rest of the market was still teetering near its highs. AAPL dipped below 257. A drop back to 255-256 would've been welcomed. I'd re-enter as long as the market was still fairly positive.

IRE's gain is slipping, now up just 8.04%. IMAX up 3.85% to 16.73.

DNDN getting hit today, down 2.84% to 39.70. That's the nature of biotechs. No news for the longest time, traders lose patience and sell.

Fun fins

IRE is up 11.55% to 4.13 this morning. STD is up 1.78% to 9.07. I remember when STD was holding up fairly well through its crisis a couple of weeks ago and was in the 10-11 range.

Cheap at 9? Hmmm...

GS is even and C is down 0.79%. Not too bad coming off Friday's bear stampede. Dow Jones was up 28 points, NAS +6.6, S&P +3.35.

Financials ... still don't trust them. Wouldn't try a position without hedging with FAZ or VXX.

Good morning, good afternoon

Wow, it's nice to get up at 7 am in Honolulu. Of course, this also means it's 1 pm in New York and I've slept through more than half of today's market. Had to happen. I didn't sleep or nap yesterday, so it was 40 or so consecutive hours without any shut-eye. Didn't even realize it until late last night when I started nodding off.

Dow Jones 10,136 +112 +1.1%
NASDAQ 2,256 +34 +1.5%
S&P 500 1,085 +14.66 +1.3%

AAPL has traded in a slightly narrower range than yesterday, opening at 264.54, hitting a high of 264.80 and selling off to 261.10. Now trading at 262.58 on slight volume. Yesterday, 31.2 million shares traded. With 2 hours and 35 minutes left today, 13.6 mil have traded.

Shares of Ford are up 3%. BIDU up 1.7%. Euro is flat; FXE is at 122.03. GOOG up 1.5%.

Financials are rebounding: C up 1%, GS up 1.1%, STD up 0.5%, IRE up 4.2% and NBG up 3.4%. The Euro banks don't make small moves any more. It's either giant waves or complete wipeout.

FAS, of course, is up 3.6%. VXX is down 1.6%. GLD is down fractionally. FXI is up again, a robust 2%.

I missed a rather quiet morning, it seems. The coast appears to be clear, but I'm in no rush to jump into these waters for any kind of long-term trade. It's all rental, all near term if anything. I don't care about missing on a few bucks profit here and there. I care about staying a step ahead of the next change in direction. No edge, no good. This lull is a mirage. Keeping powder dry.

Tuesday toppling

Dow Jones 10,024.82 -112.61 -1.11%
NASDAQ 2,222.33 -34.71 -1.54%
S&P 500 1.070.71 -18.70 -1.72%

A pleasantly nice ride out of the Red Sea by bulls turned into a dump into the sewer today as the market finished with a very noticeable limp. I, as often has been the case in recent days, was a non-competitor. A non-participant. I just don't play well with the other kids for some reason, but I'm not upset. Staying in cash has kept me free from unnecessary stress.

Sure, I would've liked riding AAPL from 259 to 265.94, but it would've been rather treacherous, seeing how the rest of the market was mostly red, red and more red. AAPL rode another upgrade (340 target by another yadayada outfit) to Ka-Chingville, then sold off to 260.83 at the close. I did feel tempted, but I also knew chasing AAPL up a steep slope would be suicidal later. The market is just that way. No solid footing, all slippery downhill.

Really didn't pay close attention to other stocks today. Too choppy for my taste. If I can't trade FAZ or VXX in negative sentiment because the price ain't right, I wait until somehow, an edge falls my way. It never did, so I enjoyed the time to get some work done and actually eat breakfast for a change.

Those of you wise and nimble enough to go short before the market (or premarket) opened, I salute you. Coming into today, the three-day weekend got gloomier and gloomier with news of paranoia gripping markets globally. Most charts I looked at yesterday read SELL SELL SELL, which is a bit unusual even in this recent downturn. There's just no real conviction, a shortage of irrational exuberance, and maybe that's what the market needs, ultimately, to regain its equilibrium. Until then, I'm content to watch from the bleachers.

• BP (36.52 -6.43 -14.97%) started the day beaten down after Top Kill was ruled a failure, but shares rallied to 38.53 by mid-day. The horrendous finish, plus more selling in afterhours trading (36.30) makes BP a helluva place to be for longs. I'm not comfortable betting against oil — DUG (75.01 +5.93 +8.58%) and SCO (16.17 +0.81 +5.27%) are inverse ETNs.

• BIDU (73.56 +0.35 +0.48%) withstood the punishment that was inflicted upon most NAS stocks today. Shares were up to 75.60 at one point.

• FAZ (15.92 +0.98 +6.62%) roared as Eurozone financials stank it up. C (3.85 -0.11 -2.78%) and GS (141.86 -2.40 -1.66%) are difficult places to be for longs. They're at the mercy of any bad news across the Atlantic. IRE (4.73 -0.37 -7.25%), STD (9.83 -0.32 -3.15%) and NBG (2.35 -0.10 -4.08%) were smoked today.

• FXE (122.03 -0.34 -0.28%) rallied from a dip to 121.51, but it hardly appears there is confidence in the currency. If the Romulans, Klingons and humans can co-exist, why not the Euro Union, hmm?

• GLD (119.91 +1.03 +0.87%) is holding steady despite last month's prognostications from doubters that it would soon be overbought. If the Chinese are buying loads of gold, there might be no better move than for us Yankees to buy it, too.

• Treasurys were safe from today's carnage, too. TLT (96.85 +0.67 +0.70%) continues to reward those who don't want to mess with the market's erratic behavior.

• VXX (30.19 +1.61 +5.63%) spent much of the day around the mid 29s before launching over 30 before the close. I can't remember ever successfully trading VXX as a stand-alone. I've done far better using it as a hedge to a position in AAPL. Not going to mess with this VXXen overnight. No thank you.

Hawaii 2:07 am: Bearish roosters

Cockle-doodle-doo to you this bright and early Tuesday morn. Futures are down: Dow Jones -118, Nasdaq -18.25 and S&P 500 -15.30.

Not entirely bad considering the chaos across Planet Earth. Top Kill is a Top Flub. China back to saying, "Europe, your debt crap sucks mightily." Bond issues in Europe. Things could be worse.

Ten minutes into premarket trading:

• AAPL 258.65, up from Friday's 256.88 close. High: 259.18. Low: 255.39. Quite the comeback in just a few minutes. Apple was upgraded by UBS with a target of 320. Just sold its 2 millionth iPad. That's right. Holeee Shit.

• BIDU 71.55, down from Friday's 73.21. High: 72.51. Low: 71.50.

• C 3.90, down from Friday's 3.96. High: 3.96. Low: 3.85.

• F 11.39, down from Friday's 11.73. High: 11.53. Low: 11.33.

• FAS 23.10, down from Friday's 24.14. High: 23.75. Low: 22.94.

• FAZ 15.60, up from Friday's 14.93. High: 15.70. Low: 15.15.

• FXI 38.80, down from Friday's 39.38. Barely any volume so far.

• GLD 119.88, up from Friday's 118.88.

• GOOG 478.80, down from Friday's 485.63. High: 481.91. Low: 478.60.

• GS 143.10, down from Friday's 144.26.

• IRE 4.72, down huge from Friday's 5.10. NBG also down to 2.38 from 2.45. STD is at 9.81, down from 10.15.

• USO 33.21, down from 34.03.

• DUG at 72.35, up from 69.08 on minimal volume.

• VXX 29.85, up from 28.58. High: 30.10. Low: 29.10. Volatility seemed to be a winning play before premarket, but once the AAPL upgrade came out, things reversed some.

TLT is worth watching early on, too. If volatility reigns this morning, Treasurys will keep rising.

Big bounce: no dead cats here

AAPL, C, GOOG ... they bounced huge today. Compared to some smaller issues, though, they didn't move as big.

• Blockbuster (BBI) ran 18.57% from 0.28 (Wednesday's closing price) to 0.33. I wouldn't touch ol' Blockhead, but it says a lot that a company seemingly destined for bankruptcy could move like this. Maybe it's an indicator that the top is in, at least for the near term.

• FAS up 12.8% and TYH up 10.76%. Financials and techs roared higher today. Volume could've been better, but the bulls win.

• The Governor and Company of the Bank of Ireland (IRE) soared 9.0% to 5.31 and continued its climb after hours (to 5.46).

• Baidu hovered below 70 early in the day and I punted. That hesitation cost me; BIDU ran 8.7% to 73.49. If the market avoids hellish news for a day or two, BIDU might return to 80.

• US Steel (X) hammered the bears and rose 8.29% to 48.86. Big turnaround after days of weakness.

• STD up 5.57% as Euro banks rode the wave. NBG was up, too, by 6.7%.

• Ford (F) raced ahead for a 5.5% gain to 11.99. It was at mid-10 range just days ago.

I haven't caught any bounces this week, but I plan to grab a handful or two before this run is done. Or I'll wait it out and see when the next run hits. Ready to go in either direction.

Wandering Wednesday

Dow Jones 9,974.45 -69.30 -0.69%

NASDAQ 2,195.88 -15.07 -0.68%

S&P 500 1,067.95 -6.08 -0.57%

Market closed down after being up most of the day. It was coming sooner or later, not a lot of conviction by the bulls. Not enough inflow. People bailed during and after the Flash Crash and they don't want to mess with this now.

As AAPL slid downhill toward the close, surrendering a gain of almost $7 (at today's high), I moved closer to a re-entry into VXX. I just couldn't pull the trigger, though, concerned that a late-day buy program could throttle me and my little position.

A minute before the closing bell, I wanted VXX at 30.99. (I'd cancelled an earlier buy at 30.44.) But I wouldn't hit the buy button, and VXX closed at 31.03. As soon as afterhours trading began, VXX went up and up, carrying that market momo. At 31.25, I thought again about entering. I had no reason to have doubt at that point. But I didn't want to chase, so I didn't buy. Currently trading at 31.69 on thin volume.

When the day started, I was prepared to trade AAPL in a consistent range, but I never felt comfortable enough with the potential of a sudden selloff, never got confident enough with possible entry points, so I stayed out after the early sell in premarket.

• AAPL 244.10 (-1.11 -0.45%) sold off toward the close, a victim of its success. Everyone's taking their profits to bank them and/or cover losses (in other stocks). I'm glad I got out at 257 a couple of weeks ago, and I'm glad I got out early today with a profit. It's my favorite retail company, but the fantasy of buy-and-hold is long gone. AAPL is also a tool to be used and used up. Currently 242.91 after hours.

• BIDU 67.59 (-1.49 -2.16%) was in a tight range early on, then just faded. Gone are the momentum traders.

• C 3.86 (+0.08 +2.12%) rolled from yesterday's closing 3.78 to a high of 4.19 today on an upgrade. Wild ride on a bank stock. A decade ago, who woulda thunk it?

• EWY 42.09 (-0.11 -0.26%) hanging tough despite tension at the DMZ.

• F 11.39 (+0.37 +3.36%) was below 11 just two days ago. Toyota continues to crumple with recalls and Ford keeps hauling ass ahead of the competition.

• FAZ 16.52 (+0.27 +1.69%) was buried earlier, then rallied from a low of 15.09 to its high of 16.58 near the close.

• FXE 121.57 (-1.41 -1.15%) continues to fall as the Euro's comeback lasts just a couple of days. Cramer says it's because China is rumored to be thinking of selling its European bonds. Something like that.

• GS 140.30 (-2.26 -6.43%) faded again, perhaps on lack of followthrough on a rumor yesterday (again) that there would be a settlement with the SEC.

• IRE 4.87 (+0.18 +3.84%) held on to its gain despite falling from its intraday high (5.15). I saw the price change from 5.11 to 5.03 in the blink of an eye at mid-day. NBG took a hit, too, but STD was ripped with a 4.73% loss despite taking measures to combat its credit crisis.

• USO up 2.32% (finally) as oil bounces. SCO took a 5.12% hit.

• GLD up 1.11 to 118.47, but TLT down 0.28 to 98.57.

• US dollar (UUP) stable today.

Back to 100% cash since premarket. Didn't expect to go tradeless the rest of the day, but dry powder is a good thing these days.

Feel like the market has you in a headlock?

Go cash, young gun, and be free

Underwhelming but green

Ehhhhhh ... again, not so impressed with the rally. It's sufficient and orderly, even, but clearly without the big fundies, the market is not going to rocket massively. In fact, if it's going to rise again, it might be another quiet-volume type of climb, and not as long.

I'm not banking on that, though. AAPL is ranging at 250-251. Euro banks are all over the place: IRE is up 7% to 5.02, while STD is down 1.6% to 10.20.

C was upgraded and hit 4.03 before reeling a bit to 3.94 (+4.2%). GS is up 1.6% to 144.80.

GLD is up 1% to 118.57, SLV is catching up after a down day (17.85 +1.1%) and TLT (20-year treasurys ETF) is down 0.5% to 98.08.

DJ +95, Nas +34, S&P +12.6.

Morning lows

Who wins this morning: bears or bulls? I'm not sure. Having Kim Jong Il as a wild card in the market picture is unsettling, to say the least. The guy just doesn't give a shit. At least with Eurozone and the Gulf mess, there's accountability and real pressure.

That being said, here are the premarket lows so far for some stocks.

• AAPL 241.55 now, 238.96 low

• BIDU 68.10 now, 67.99 low

• C 3.64 now, 3.60 low

• DNDN 41.63 now, 41.25 low

• F 10.64 now, 10.45 low (yeah, holee crap!)

• FXE (Euro ETF) 121.95 now, 121.78 low

• EUO (short Euro) 25.05 now, 24.78 low

• FAS 20.99 now, 20.21 low

• FAZ 17.48 now, 16.99 low

• FXI 36.80 now, 36.51 low

• FXP (short FXI) 48.44 now, 47.79 low

• GLD 116.84 now, 116.12 low

• GOOG 470.00 now, 466.84 low

• GS 134.69 now, 134.00 low

• IRE 4.48 now, 4.26 low

• NBG 2.48 now, 2.43 low

• VXX 35.68 now, 34.75 low, 36.70 high

Sometimes, premarket patterns are a microcosm of the regular session. This might be one of those days because I don't see any good news coming that would spur buying by retail traders and investors. But if the fundies pile in like they did on Friday morning, just a few minutes after the opening bell, this could change quickly.

Danger lurks?

No mas! FAZ en fuego

The takeover of Spain's top savings bank by the Bank of Spain over the weekend wasn't ignored. Even I saw that news. But for FAZ to surge as it did early in the day from a low of 14.95 to 15.80 less than 30 minutes later. Yow! Here's more on the Spanish financial crisis.

FAZ traded down to 15.19 by mid-day, setting up a second run to 16.14 by 3:10 pm (Eastern). FAZ sold down to 15.85 by 3:44 pm, then ran straight up to a 16.34 close as the financials sold off.

How much of this had to do with Spain? Well, C was up most of the day before giving up most of its gains, and GS caved 3.93 to 136.69 (-2.79%). Just when it looked like the banksters were ready to plow forward, zappo.

STD dropped 5.19% to 10.41 after last week's nice gains. IRE down 9.46% to 5.07. NBG bucked the trend, up 0.77% (2 cents) to 2.63. If STD ends up giving back all of last week's gains, that's probably good news for FAZ traders, bad news for the rest of financials and FAS fans.

I wanted into FAZ after getting up before the closing bell, but it ran too fast, too high. It was available below closing price at 16.23 or so, but has since gone back up to 16.40 on flimsy volume. I've had better success with FAZ than VXX lately, but neither are fun for long. It's all about quickies with these two. Too quick, sometimes.

FAZ perked up early and late to pummel the finnies

XLF, C, GS and STD faltered

1-day (1-minute bars)

Over the past week, FAZ is a winner

5-day (15-minute bars)

Like all ETFs, FAZ is not a buy-and-hold vehicle unless you want to lose every dime

2-year (weekly)

Be cautious with FAZ ... she's a rocket girl!

Germany comes through for Eurozone

Futures are significantly down this morning, but not massively buried. Any sign of good news for the bulls is always welcome.

The market will digest the news from Germany, where parliament has approved the Eurozone package by an overwhelming and expected margin. The FXE (euro index) closed yesterday at 124.75, a recent high. Today will show a little more whether that leap was about short covering or other factors.

AAPL is trading at 234.07 in premarket, its lowest level in months. If the market bounces after the dreadful decline of the last several sessions, AAPL will be one of the leaders. Watching closely.

FAZ is also moving higher in early trading at 17.52 while financials are at lower prices (C 3.58, GS 135.75, IRE 5.30, STD 10.35). Until the details of the euro crisis are resolved, financials are range bound, at best.

VXX is near its premarket high at 34.89. More than $8 billion was withdrawn from the market in the past weeks since the Flash Crash. Retail investors who are still in the market are taking precautions, no doubt, by seeking VXX and treasuries. ETFs that mirror treasuries (TLT, TMF) have performed exceedingly well lately.

Still long FAZ and VXX. Still 55% cash. Ready for any kind of bounce today, next week, next month.

Momo Monday

Dow Jones 10,625.83 +5.67 +0.05%

Nasdaq 2,354.23 +7.30 +0.31%

S&P 500 1,136.94 +1.26 +0.11%

Trading range, indeed. After a drop to 170 or so points on the Dow, the market finished positive. I'm underwhelmed, but comfortable enough to stay in cash for now. Those who went short the past few days were geniuses. One of them is ChessNwine over at iBankCoin.

He got out of his inverse ETFs and longs today and is now 100% cash. I'm not smart like him, didn't hang in there with my inverse stuff like FAZ, but I didn't lose any money today either because I was flat. So I'm either a semi-genius or a semi-dunderhead. Fine.

Slept well through most of the market. A long weekend of work and meetings didn't help me catch up on that sleep debt, but I'm feeling almost right now. It's partly cloudy in Honolulu this morning. Traffic isn't bad. My loved ones are OK. Things could be worse, I know.

• AAPL (254.22 +0.40 +0.16%) sold down to 24.71 before rallying. The final 38 or so minutes were a rocket liftoff for many stocks. AAPL went from 250.51 (another higher intraday low) to 254-plus, then sold back below 254 and I thought about starting a position again. But the indicators were too high and I decided to wait for a little bit more of a pullback, maybe tomorrow.

• BIDU (73.18 -0.80 -1.08%) had a low of 71.64 today, still way off its high last week above 80. Intraday high was 75.10 shortly after the opening bell.

• C (3.88 -0.12 -3.02%) really stood out earlier at 3.76. I'd gotten up at that minute, saw that price and started thinking this might be the start of a serious hammering for finnies. As usual, that kind of guessing is opposite of reality. With Europe likely to have unprecedented financial issues, traders may not buy into euro printing press solution the way it happened in the US with dollars after March 2009.

• FXE / EUO. The euro rallied from a low of 122.47 to a close of 123.48 to finish just above neutral (+0.01 +0.01%). Euro is still at a critical point technically. EUO fell from its high and finished near its low (24.49 -0.03 -0.12%). The swings in these two are not as severe as other ETFs and stocks, but I watch anyway.

• F (11.95 -0.16 -1.32%) hit a low of 11.49 before buyers stormed in. Ford hasn't done anything different, hasn't done anything wrong since shares ballooned to 14-plus a couple of months ago.

• FAS / FAZ (13.77 -0.02 -0.15%). This was a big bump for FAZ to 14.71; it was in the low 12s a few days ago. Then the reversal sapped profits for FAZ traders and it finished up only 2¢ to 13.82. FAS broke even at 28.00 after dipping to 26.08. Crazy train!

• GLD (119.36 -1.01 -0.84%) still correcting slightly. Low of the day was 119.29, not a huge move at all. Hard to argue against gold's value as a hedge against currencies. This might be just a consolidation period unless debt-ridden nations start unloading their gold stocks.

• GS (142.64 -0.59 -0.41%) fell to 138.53 before rallying.

• HAUP (2.82 -1.11 -28.24%) cratered, as expected, after the weak earnings report. Shares got down to 2.77 and hovered above 2.90 for some time, but selling pressure was still strong through the late rally. The retracement is a little more than 50% since the run-up on Thursday afternoon. Staying listed on the NASDAQ is more likely now.

• IMAX (19.60 +0.30 +1.55%) was one of the stronger players today, well off the low of 19.19. Shares have stabilized since the massive insider selling a couple of weeks ago.

• IRE (7.41 -0.34 -4.39%), NBG (2.65 -0.06 -2.21%) and STD (10.36 -0.08 -0.77%) all rallied off their lows. Trillion euros or not, they'll keep getting hit until the next infusion of freshly printed money.

• NFLX (106.35 +5.79 +5.76%) was the biggest mover on my list despite a low of 101.31. I liked NFLX in the 80s, missed the run to 100-plus on the earnings report and positive guidance, but haven't been a staunch believer since. There's competition (Coinstar, Apple, Amazon) in the digital world, and the run last week to 120 was based on takeover rumors. Shares could run again on the rumors, but I'll stay out.

• TMF (36.32 -0.55 -1.49%) finally pulled back after a nice run. For awhile, though, 30-year bonds were quite sexy.

• VXX (27.48 +0.62 +2.31%) finished with a nice gain despite pulling back from 29.00. After making and losing money on this steroid-laden robot, I'm still not sure how to define the volatility that is measured by VXX (and VIX). There's always price action, though, and this was very active. Kooky.

• X (51.15 -1.66 -3.14%) sold off again. Last week's run was short-lived.

Oil and the market have traded together. Oil is at $70 a barrel now, at a possible breaking point or reversal point.

Aloha Friday

Dow Jones 10,620 -162.79 -1.51%

NASDAQ 2,346 -47.51 -1.09%

S&P 500 1,135 -21.76 -1.88%

Can a 162-point drop on the Dow ever be a positive sign? After dropping about 230 or 240 points intraday, the Dow rallied into the close. So did the Nasdaq and S&P 500.

I didn't get up until about 5 am Hawaii time, 90 minutes into the session. I missed HAUP's gap up and run to 4.85. Like yesterday, when it ran crazy in the final two hours on a press release involving Apple, I wanted a retracement to Fibonacci levels. It didn't happen. That's what happens when a 92-cent stock increases in one day by five-fold.

A down market is one thing, but this one had a range underwater and I wanted some AAPL, which bottomed at 249.50, but ran to 252 or so in the second half of the day. But FAZ and VXX intrigued me; aside from HAUP, there was nothing else on my screen that was green aside from inverse ETFs/ETNs. It was a great day to be short the market coming in, not after the fact.

Still, I tried. FAZ settled into a range between 13.80 and 14.00, and I got shares at 13.96. Teetered, tottered and I held up and down, revising my exit point along the way several times. However, when I added more shares at 14.06, that was basically the all-points-bulletin for shorts to pile in. It ran to 14.13 for a second, then sold off and I got out at 13.86. Could've been worse, but I should've gotten out at break-even or somewhere above 14. It was a good trade in the sense that I limited the loss in a turbulent market. But timing is still an issue. I sold these shares of FAZ yesterday before the bell at 12.51 for a 10-cent loss. I didn't want to hold anything overnight, which cost me $1.50 on today's gain.

By the close, AAPL had run from 250 to 254. The banks ran, too, to no surprise. C was at 3.92 for most of the afternoon* before closing at 3.98.

The inverse ETFs/ETNs closed weaker but were still green. Nice green, too.

• EUO 24.60 (+0.57, +2.37%)

• EPV 25.94 (+1.52, +6.22%)

• FAZ 13.75 (+1.08, +8.52%)

• FXP 44.11 (+1.62, +3.84%)

• SDS 32.05 (+1.12, +3.65)

• SKF 19.76 (+1.06, +5.67%)

• TMF 36.87 (+1.95, ++5.58)

• TZA 6.10 (+0.33, +5.71%)

• UUP 25.21 (+0.23, +0.92%)

• VXX 26.86 (+2.13, +8.63)

EUO is a steady short on the euro, not a high flyer like VXX, but very consistent. FXP (short China) is interesting, but I'm not comfortable touching that yet. Getting more familiar, though. No good news out of China for awhile. In other words, the slightest good news will wreck the FXP and fuel the FXI (down 21% the past year).

TMF (30-year treasury index) is killing it. Go Grandma! UUP, the U.S. dollar, is also solid.

GLD and SLV are down fractionally. Overbought, yes, but people will stay in for the most part. Or go to treasury bonds, maybe TMF.

US Steel (X) sold off 5.66% today. Other big sells were in NFLX (100.56, -9.45, -8.59%) and ETFs like FAS (-8.74%), STD (-7.28%), and financials like IRE (-4.44%). GS is down 1%. C rallied into the close from 3.91 to 3.99 (-0.11, -2.69%).

HAUP held up fairly well, despite the tape, and closed at 3.93 (+0.90, +29.70%). Missed my opportunity there, but it could be interesting on a retracement to 3.38 and lower.

IMAX down just 0.57% to 19.30. A nice rally since dipping to 17 last week.

Next week is a mystery to me. My gut says better hedge than go long, but anything can happen over the weekend, especially with the Euro league of nations.

An AAPL/VXX pairing sounds interesting, but I don't want to deal with any slippage by VXX again. Staying 100% cash for now.

The week was a series of losses, mostly small, with a few wins. Study time. I think one key note is that I'm sticking better to discipline now, an improvement from earlier in the week. No matter how much I like AAPL, it's subject to the whims of the market like everyone else. Dry powder rules.