Tonight's look at the Pupule Top 25 stocks. Though the market bounced and tech rose, volume in Apple, Google an RIMM were lower. Not a convincing tape.
1. AAPL 178.78 +6.09 (+3.5%) | 50-day SMA: 182.11 | 100-day SMA: 168.23
Up on lower volume. Not exactly bullish. MacWorld gives Apple plenty of juice, but unless the Fed energizes the market, APPL will sell off before MacWorld is done. Fed eases, AAPL could explode going into earnings on Jan. 22.
2. GOOG 653.82 +15.57 (+2.4%) | 50-day SMA: 680.24 | 100-day SMA: 629.93
Jon Najarian says Google will move more than Apple short term.
3. RIMM 96.35 +2.65 (+2.8%) | 50-day SMA: 109.92 | 100-day SMA: 104.60 | 200-day SMA: 81.73
Absolutely abused by the street.
4. NTDOY.PK 69.86 +1.11 (+1.6%) | 50-day SMA: 72.23 | 100-day SMA: 68.87
Not a bargain anymore, but definitely a decent price.
5. POT 150.12 +11.37 (+8.2%) | 50-day SMA: 126.29
Even on down days, Potash gained nicely. There's something explosive in that fertilzer.
6. CHL 84.21 -0.86 (-1.0%) | 50-day SMA: 88.05 | 100-day SMA: 83.77
Still a fair price.
7. PTR 173.00 -1.04 (-0.6%) | 50-day SMA: 190.48 | 100-day SMA: 187.59 | 200-day SMA: 159.72
Not ultra cheap, but well below its 100-day SMA. China's appetite for oil hasn't changed.
8. FSLR 224.76 +3.76 (+1.7% | 50-day SMA: 224.67
The window for a fair price on First Solar is slipping away. That was quick.
9. MCD 54.96 +0.64 (+1.2%) | 50-day SMA: 58.55 | 100-day SMA: 55.74 | 200-day SMA: 52.19
Yesterday's selloff on huge volume (more than 30 million shares) was filthy and disgusting, but it gave longs a chance to get more shares at a cheap price. Still cheap here.
10. STP 70.22 +3.41 (+5.1%) | 50-day SMA: 73.39 | 100-day SMA: 57.32
Alternative energy in China will be a prince (crude oil is king), and Suntech Power fits the throne nicely.
11. ISRG 265.69 +3.50 (+1.3%) | 50-day SMA: 307.62 | 100-day SMA: 275.93 | 2004. ISRG 265.69 +3.50 (+1.3%) | 50-day SMA: 307.62 | 100-day SMA: 213.54
Intuitive Surgical's growth could be tempered.
12. CMG 116.77 +0.07 (+0.1%) | 50-day SMA: 134.25 | 100-day SMA: 125.30 | 200-day SMA: 103.69
I prefer McDonald's as a fast-food play, but Chipotle has plenty of growth ahead.
13. BIDU 340.40 +11.15 (+3.4%) | 50-day SMA: 365.50 | 100-day SMA: 323.35
One of the few techs on my list that had increased volume today.
14. FWLT 141.17 -0.41 (-0.3%) | 50-day SMA: 149.94 } 100-day SMA: 141.09
Low volume for Foster Wheeler. Almost cheap here.
15. FLS 91.60 +0.95 (+1.0%) | 50-day SMA: 93.25 } 100-day SMA: 84.30
Miniscule volume today. Caution.
16. FMCN 55.44 +0.49 (+0.9%) | 50-day SMA: 56.59 | 100-day SMA: 53.88
Smallish volume, price barely decent.
17. GS 201.65 +2.91 (+1.5%) | 50-day SMA: 213.87 | 100-day SMA: 210.97 | 200-day SMA: 211.82
Goldman Sachs still cheap after rising for four days in a row. Declining volume, however, should slow the momentum soon.
18. NKE 60.73 +0.03 (+0.1%) | 50-day SMA: 63.72 | 100-day SMA: 61.34 | 200-day SMA: 58.07
Lower volume today. I like Nike long term.
19. CEO 178.25 -0.92 (-0.5%) | 50-day SMA: 173.38
More explosive than PetroChina, but too pricey here.
20. VMW 82.24 +4.71 (+6.1%) | 50-day SMA: 88.98 | 100-day SMA: 88.27
VMware's rally continues, but tiny volume is not promising.
21. LULU 34.48 +1.41 (+4.3%) | 50-day SMA: 41.97 | 100-day SMA: 42.16
Ridiculous selloff despite lululemon's robust report last quarter. I do not buy the notion that the 18-35 female demographic has suddenly stopped buying workout (yoga) apparel.
22. MSFT 34.39 +0.48 (+1.4%) | 50-day SMA: 34.66 | 100-day SMA: 32.23
Not cheap here.
23. AMZN 82.87 +1.79 (+2.2%) | 50-day SMA: 87.33 | 100-day SMA: 87.83 | 200-day SMA: 76.76
Amazon is cheap here. In Bezos we trust.
24. EBAY 29.23 -0.45 (-1.5%) | 50-day SMA: 32.76 | 100-day SMA: 34.93 } 200-day SMA: 34.12
A seriously ugly chart. The selloff since 34 also occurred after the 50- and 200-day SMA crossed.
25. LFC 73.39 +0.18 (+0.3%) | 50-day SMA: 80.85 | 100-day SMA: 82.74 | 200-day SMA: 67.39
China Life Insurance looks cheap here. Today's gain on tiny volume shows a lack of conviction on both sides.
Showing posts with label Ins and Outs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ins and Outs. Show all posts
Monday, January 14, 2008
Sunday, January 13, 2008
Pupule portfolio
More additions to the faux portfolio.
AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
AAPL | in at 177.64 (11 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
AAPL | in at 171.25 (18 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
AAPL | in at 179.40 (22 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08
AMZN | in at 84.26 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/11/08
AMZN | in at 81.08 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/11/08
BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
BIDU | in at 344.31 (6 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
BIDU | in at 345.21 (9 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
BIDU | in at 344.10 (12 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08
CEO | in 167.22 (60 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
CHL | in at 84.65 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
CHL | in at 85.44 (23 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
CHL | in at 85.22 (47 shares) | 40% of position | 1/7/08
CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
CMG | in at 123.98 (16 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
CMG | in at 117.87 (25 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
CMG | in at 118.58 (34 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08
EBAY | in at 32.49 (30 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
EBAY | in at 32.84 (61 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
EBAY | in at 30.44 (131 shares) 40% of position | 1/7/08
FLS | in at 90.50 (11 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08
FLS | in at 90.45 (22 shares) | 20% of position | 1/8/08
FLS | in at 90.38 (33 shares) | 30% of position | 1/9/08
FLS | in at 90.65 (44 shares) | 40% of position | 1/11/08
FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
FMCN | in at 56.14 (36 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
FMCN | in at 56.20 (54 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
FMCN | in at 56.13 (71 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08
FSLR | in at 221.00 (5 shares) | 10% of position | 1/11/08
FWLT | in at 149.94 (7 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08
FWLT | in at 143.49 (14 shares) | 20% of position | 1/8/08
FWLT | in at 142.90 (21 shares) | 30% of position | 1/9/08
FWLT | in at 141.58 (28 shares) 40% of position | 1/11/08
GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
GOOG | in at 649.25 (3 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
GOOG | in at 631.68 (5 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
GOOG | in at 653.20 (6 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08
GS | in 214.32 (47 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
ISRG | in at 299.98 (7 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
ISRG | in at 271.73 (11 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
ISRG | out at 263.64 (21 shares) | net -467.45 (-7.8%)
LFC | in 80.70 (124 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
LULU | in at 38.45 (52 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
LULU | in at 36.93 (81 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
LULU | in at 34.00 (108 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08
MCD | in at 57.93 (17 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
MCD | in at 58.03 (52 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08
MCD | in at 57.08 (70 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08
MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
MSFT | in at 34.61 (58 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
MSFT | in at 33.45 (90 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
MSFT | in at 34.44 (116 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08
NKE | in at 62.71 (16 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
NKE | in at 62.11 (48 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08
NKE | in at 61.83 (65 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08
NTDOY.PK | in at 67.00 (15 shares) | 10% of position | 1/8/08
NTDOY.PK | in at 68.44 (29 shares) | 20% of position | 1/9/08
NTDOY.PK | in at 69.29 (43 shares) | 30% of position | 1/10/08
NTDOY.PK | in at 68.75 (58 shares) | 40% of position | 1/11/08
PTR | in 181.72 (55 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
RIMM | in at 99.83 (20 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
RIMM | in at 96.44 (31 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
RIMM | in at 98.55 (41 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08
STP | in at 66.81 (15 shares) | 10% of position | 1/11/08
VMW | in at 83.95 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
VMW | in at 72.99 (41 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08
VMW | in at 74.50 (53 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08
AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
AAPL | in at 177.64 (11 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
AAPL | in at 171.25 (18 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
AAPL | in at 179.40 (22 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08
AMZN | in at 84.26 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/11/08
AMZN | in at 81.08 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/11/08
BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
BIDU | in at 344.31 (6 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
BIDU | in at 345.21 (9 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
BIDU | in at 344.10 (12 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08
CEO | in 167.22 (60 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
CHL | in at 84.65 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
CHL | in at 85.44 (23 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
CHL | in at 85.22 (47 shares) | 40% of position | 1/7/08
CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
CMG | in at 123.98 (16 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
CMG | in at 117.87 (25 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
CMG | in at 118.58 (34 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08
EBAY | in at 32.49 (30 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
EBAY | in at 32.84 (61 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
EBAY | in at 30.44 (131 shares) 40% of position | 1/7/08
FLS | in at 90.50 (11 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08
FLS | in at 90.45 (22 shares) | 20% of position | 1/8/08
FLS | in at 90.38 (33 shares) | 30% of position | 1/9/08
FLS | in at 90.65 (44 shares) | 40% of position | 1/11/08
FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
FMCN | in at 56.14 (36 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
FMCN | in at 56.20 (54 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
FMCN | in at 56.13 (71 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08
FSLR | in at 221.00 (5 shares) | 10% of position | 1/11/08
FWLT | in at 149.94 (7 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08
FWLT | in at 143.49 (14 shares) | 20% of position | 1/8/08
FWLT | in at 142.90 (21 shares) | 30% of position | 1/9/08
FWLT | in at 141.58 (28 shares) 40% of position | 1/11/08
GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
GOOG | in at 649.25 (3 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
GOOG | in at 631.68 (5 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
GOOG | in at 653.20 (6 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08
GS | in 214.32 (47 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
ISRG | in at 299.98 (7 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
ISRG | in at 271.73 (11 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
ISRG | out at 263.64 (21 shares) | net -467.45 (-7.8%)
LFC | in 80.70 (124 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
LULU | in at 38.45 (52 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
LULU | in at 36.93 (81 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
LULU | in at 34.00 (108 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08
MCD | in at 57.93 (17 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
MCD | in at 58.03 (52 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08
MCD | in at 57.08 (70 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08
MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
MSFT | in at 34.61 (58 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
MSFT | in at 33.45 (90 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
MSFT | in at 34.44 (116 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08
NKE | in at 62.71 (16 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
NKE | in at 62.11 (48 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08
NKE | in at 61.83 (65 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08
NTDOY.PK | in at 67.00 (15 shares) | 10% of position | 1/8/08
NTDOY.PK | in at 68.44 (29 shares) | 20% of position | 1/9/08
NTDOY.PK | in at 69.29 (43 shares) | 30% of position | 1/10/08
NTDOY.PK | in at 68.75 (58 shares) | 40% of position | 1/11/08
PTR | in 181.72 (55 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
RIMM | in at 99.83 (20 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
RIMM | in at 96.44 (31 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08
RIMM | in at 98.55 (41 shares) | 40% of position | 1/9/08
STP | in at 66.81 (15 shares) | 10% of position | 1/11/08
VMW | in at 83.95 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
VMW | in at 72.99 (41 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08
VMW | in at 74.50 (53 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Top 25: Ins and Outs
Is anyone long Big Ben? I think Ben is a short-term trade. Nothing he says sticks for very long.
1. AAPL 178.02 -1.38 (-0.7%) | 50-day SMA: 182.62 | 100-day SMA: 167.22
Down on lower volume today. Still a decent price, MacWorld opens on Monday, but the next big fed report is on Tuesday. Looks like a short-term trade rather than a hold in this foggy weather.
2. GOOG 646.73 -6.47 (-1.0%) | 50-day SMA: 682.44 | 100-day SMA: 627.06
Pummeled, but no catalyst in the near future. Nice price, could get cheaper.
3. RIMM 100.66 +2.11 (2.1%) | 50-day SMA: 111.04 | 100-day SMA: 104.31 | 200-day SMA: 81.24
Up for a second day in a row, but on lower volume. Some ditzy news about being ready for China, but it's up to China Mobile to decide when to get the show going. No clear near-term catalyst.
4. ISRG 267.63 +3.99 (+1.5%) | 50-day SMA: 310.07 | 100-day SMA: 274.69 | 200-day SMA: 212.13
This puppy was severely sold off, so the bounce is not a shock. But I don't expect it to last, not when hospitals are saying they don't have the bucks anymore to buy DaVinci machines.
5. NTDOY.PK n/a
6. POT 135.28 -2.72 (-1.9%) | 50-day SMA: 125.34
Down on lower volume, but still not a nice price. Nowhere near cheap. Power of fertilizer.
7. CHL 88.94 +0.10 (+0.1%) | 50-day SMA: 88.75
The price was nice, but not anymore.
8. PTR 181.65 -0.47 (-0.2%) | 50-day SMA: 193.71 | 100-day SMA: 186.76 | 200-day SMA: 159.11
PetroChina is still cheap. Oil will fluctuate, but demand in China will not cease. They like cars. A lot.
9. FSLR 225.97 -8.28 (-3.5%) | 50-day SMA: 221.92 | 100-day SMA: 169.75
First Solar bends below the 50-day, but anything more than a small piece here is crazy.
10. MCD 58.17 +0.70 (+1.2%) | 50-day SMA: 58.68 | 100-day SMA: 55.59
Not cheap, but decently priced. They win all wars. Starbucks gives part-time employees medical coverage. Mickey D does not.
11. STP 71.42 -3.97 (-5.5%) | 50-day SMA: 73.01 | 100-day SMA: 56.65
Suntech Power is at a fair price here after two down days. Not cheap, but fair. Lighter volume today.
12. CMG 123.10 +4.52 (+3.8%) | 50-day SMA: 135.03 | 100-day SMA: 124.98 | 200-day SMA: 103.14
Even with today's rally, Chipotle is cheap. Not for long.
13. BIDU 339.54 -4.56 (-1.3%) | 50-day SMA: 367.18 | 100-day SMA: 320.51
Not cheap, but decent price. Baidu down eight of the last nine sessions. Inching in makes sense. Near-term floor is 300.
14. FWLT 147.56 +4.66 (+3.2%) | 50-day SMA: 150.16 | 100-day SMA: 140.20
That dip below the 100-day was very temporary, apparently. Foster Wheeler doesn't stay below its 100-day long at all.
15. FLS 90.62 +0.24 (+0.2%) | 50-day SMA: 92.73 | 100-day SMA: 83.84
Flowserve in treacherous waters here. A close below 88 would be falling through the ice. Next stop would be 82.
16. FMCN 55.24 -0.89 (-1.6%) | 50-day SMA: 56.84 | 100-day SMA: 53.54
Flat, flat, flat. Decent price, or good if you believe China will continue to keep inflation under control.
17. GS 196.91 +5.16 (+2.7%) | 50-day SMA: 215.63 | 100-day SMA: 210.44 | 200-day SMA: 211.88
Still cheap after two up days. Goldman Sachs rules over time. The Godfather of Wall Street.
18. NKE 62.54 +0.57 (+0.9%) | 50-day SMA: 63.90 | 100-day SMA: 61.20
Nike, McDonald's ... both holding steady now, but still at a decent price. Nike has competition, but is still king. Soon to be emperor of China's feet.
19. CEO 183.26 +2.73 (+1.5%) | 50-day SMA: 174.76
The train left last week. Five up days in the last six.
20. VMW 80.30 +0.41 (0.5%) | 50-day SMA: 90.69 | 100-day SMA: 87.91
Up slightly on low volume. Another dip into the low 70s is always possible.
21. LULU 34.72 +0.72 (+2.1%) | 50-day SMA: 42.68 | 100-day SMA: 42.15
Streak of seven down days is finally over on big volume. Nice place to start inching in.
22. MSFT 34.33 -0.11 (-0.3%) | 50-day SMA: 34.74 | 100-day SMA: 32.11
Not cheap, not expensive. Not exciting. What's the next catalyst? Don't see one.
23. AMZN 84.26 -0.96 (-1.1%) | 50-day SMA: 87.60 | 100-day SMA: 87.71 | 200-day SMA: 76.34
Three down sessions in a row, lower volume today.
24. EBAY 30.36 +0.49 (+1.6%) | 50-day SMA: 33.03 | 100-day SMA: 35.02 | 200-day SMA: 34.15
The selloff takes a break in eBay. Average volume, no catalyst ahead. Imagine if they spun off PayPal.
25. LFC 76.75 +0.35 (+0.4%) | 50-day SMA: 81.94 | 100-day SMA: 82.45 | 200-day SMA: 67.08
China Life Insurance still cheap. Longs haven't been spooked off by the 600-million share news.
1. AAPL 178.02 -1.38 (-0.7%) | 50-day SMA: 182.62 | 100-day SMA: 167.22
Down on lower volume today. Still a decent price, MacWorld opens on Monday, but the next big fed report is on Tuesday. Looks like a short-term trade rather than a hold in this foggy weather.
2. GOOG 646.73 -6.47 (-1.0%) | 50-day SMA: 682.44 | 100-day SMA: 627.06
Pummeled, but no catalyst in the near future. Nice price, could get cheaper.
3. RIMM 100.66 +2.11 (2.1%) | 50-day SMA: 111.04 | 100-day SMA: 104.31 | 200-day SMA: 81.24
Up for a second day in a row, but on lower volume. Some ditzy news about being ready for China, but it's up to China Mobile to decide when to get the show going. No clear near-term catalyst.
4. ISRG 267.63 +3.99 (+1.5%) | 50-day SMA: 310.07 | 100-day SMA: 274.69 | 200-day SMA: 212.13
This puppy was severely sold off, so the bounce is not a shock. But I don't expect it to last, not when hospitals are saying they don't have the bucks anymore to buy DaVinci machines.
5. NTDOY.PK n/a
6. POT 135.28 -2.72 (-1.9%) | 50-day SMA: 125.34
Down on lower volume, but still not a nice price. Nowhere near cheap. Power of fertilizer.
7. CHL 88.94 +0.10 (+0.1%) | 50-day SMA: 88.75
The price was nice, but not anymore.
8. PTR 181.65 -0.47 (-0.2%) | 50-day SMA: 193.71 | 100-day SMA: 186.76 | 200-day SMA: 159.11
PetroChina is still cheap. Oil will fluctuate, but demand in China will not cease. They like cars. A lot.
9. FSLR 225.97 -8.28 (-3.5%) | 50-day SMA: 221.92 | 100-day SMA: 169.75
First Solar bends below the 50-day, but anything more than a small piece here is crazy.
10. MCD 58.17 +0.70 (+1.2%) | 50-day SMA: 58.68 | 100-day SMA: 55.59
Not cheap, but decently priced. They win all wars. Starbucks gives part-time employees medical coverage. Mickey D does not.
11. STP 71.42 -3.97 (-5.5%) | 50-day SMA: 73.01 | 100-day SMA: 56.65
Suntech Power is at a fair price here after two down days. Not cheap, but fair. Lighter volume today.
12. CMG 123.10 +4.52 (+3.8%) | 50-day SMA: 135.03 | 100-day SMA: 124.98 | 200-day SMA: 103.14
Even with today's rally, Chipotle is cheap. Not for long.
13. BIDU 339.54 -4.56 (-1.3%) | 50-day SMA: 367.18 | 100-day SMA: 320.51
Not cheap, but decent price. Baidu down eight of the last nine sessions. Inching in makes sense. Near-term floor is 300.
14. FWLT 147.56 +4.66 (+3.2%) | 50-day SMA: 150.16 | 100-day SMA: 140.20
That dip below the 100-day was very temporary, apparently. Foster Wheeler doesn't stay below its 100-day long at all.
15. FLS 90.62 +0.24 (+0.2%) | 50-day SMA: 92.73 | 100-day SMA: 83.84
Flowserve in treacherous waters here. A close below 88 would be falling through the ice. Next stop would be 82.
16. FMCN 55.24 -0.89 (-1.6%) | 50-day SMA: 56.84 | 100-day SMA: 53.54
Flat, flat, flat. Decent price, or good if you believe China will continue to keep inflation under control.
17. GS 196.91 +5.16 (+2.7%) | 50-day SMA: 215.63 | 100-day SMA: 210.44 | 200-day SMA: 211.88
Still cheap after two up days. Goldman Sachs rules over time. The Godfather of Wall Street.
18. NKE 62.54 +0.57 (+0.9%) | 50-day SMA: 63.90 | 100-day SMA: 61.20
Nike, McDonald's ... both holding steady now, but still at a decent price. Nike has competition, but is still king. Soon to be emperor of China's feet.
19. CEO 183.26 +2.73 (+1.5%) | 50-day SMA: 174.76
The train left last week. Five up days in the last six.
20. VMW 80.30 +0.41 (0.5%) | 50-day SMA: 90.69 | 100-day SMA: 87.91
Up slightly on low volume. Another dip into the low 70s is always possible.
21. LULU 34.72 +0.72 (+2.1%) | 50-day SMA: 42.68 | 100-day SMA: 42.15
Streak of seven down days is finally over on big volume. Nice place to start inching in.
22. MSFT 34.33 -0.11 (-0.3%) | 50-day SMA: 34.74 | 100-day SMA: 32.11
Not cheap, not expensive. Not exciting. What's the next catalyst? Don't see one.
23. AMZN 84.26 -0.96 (-1.1%) | 50-day SMA: 87.60 | 100-day SMA: 87.71 | 200-day SMA: 76.34
Three down sessions in a row, lower volume today.
24. EBAY 30.36 +0.49 (+1.6%) | 50-day SMA: 33.03 | 100-day SMA: 35.02 | 200-day SMA: 34.15
The selloff takes a break in eBay. Average volume, no catalyst ahead. Imagine if they spun off PayPal.
25. LFC 76.75 +0.35 (+0.4%) | 50-day SMA: 81.94 | 100-day SMA: 82.45 | 200-day SMA: 67.08
China Life Insurance still cheap. Longs haven't been spooked off by the 600-million share news.
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
Top 25: Ins and Outs
Interesting day for bears and bulls. Is this a dead cat bounce? Is this the turning point?
1. AAPL 179.40 +8.15 (+4.7) | 50-day SMA: 182.76 | 100-day SMA: 166.66
Nice, increased volume on today's Apple rally. MacWorld is five days away.
2. GOOG 653.20 +21.52 (+3.4%) | 50-day SMA: 683.09 | 100-day SMA: 625.59
Nice volume here, too. Google actually traded below its 100-day SMA for a moment today.
3. RIMM 98.55 +2.11 (+2.2%) | 50-day SMA: 111.47 | 100-day SMA: 104.04 | 200-day SMA: 80.96
Long way to go for RIMM. Could not get over 122 after huge earnings and raised guidance. Today's volume was good, though.
4. ISRG 263.64 -8.09 (-3.0%) | 50-day SMA: 311.14 | 100-day SMA: 274.01 | 200-day SMA: 211.41
Hospitals can't afford the DaVinci system now? Looks like they want a discount and Intuitive Surgical is not really in position to say no.
5. NTDOY.PK n/a
6. POT 138.00 +0.09 (+0.1%) | 50-day SMA: 125.07
Fertilizer is in higher demand at a higher price globally than ... robotic surgery?
7. CHL 88.84 +4.45 (+5.2%) | 50-day SMA: 89.05 | 100-day SMA: 82.85 | 200-day SMA: 66.32
Possibly the best bargain that was available in the past week. Still relatively fair of a price.
8. PTR 182.12 +6.82 (+3.9%) | 50-day SMA: 195.16 | 100-day SMA: 186.24 | 200-day SMA: 158.75
Long crude oil? Short crude oil? The undeniable factor is China needs oil. Regardless.
9. FSLR 234.25 +3.75 (+1.6%) | 50-day SMA: 220.53
First Solar dipped below its 50-day SMA today (208). Otherwise, it was never cheap during the Nasdaq's 8-day selloff.
10. MCD 57.47 +0.39 (+0.7%) | 50-day SMA: 58.67 | 100-day SMA: 55.47
Is this the bottom for Mickey D? Will they crush Starbucks as Pete Najarian predicts?
11. STP 71.42 -3.68 (-4.9%) | 50-day SMA: 72.91 | 100-day SMA: 56.32
The market goes up, but Suntech falls below its 50-day SMA on major volume. At least it's heading toward a cheap price. Finally. Was cheaper earlier in the day at 65.76.
12. CMG 118.58 +0.71 (+0.6%) | 50-day SMA: 135.26 | 100-day SMA: 124.75 | 200-day SMA: 102.84
Still cheap, but will the street have confidence in consumer spending power in the face of a possible recession?
13. BIDU 344.10 -1.11 (-0.3%) | 50-day SMA: 367.70 | 100-day SMA: 318.88
Large volume, but basically flat. Baidu longs are happy though. Stock was down to 319.20 today before rallying.
14. FWLT 142.90 -0.59 (-0.4%) | 50-day SMA: 150.26 | 100-day SMA: 139.63
Foster Wheeler down for a fourth day in a row on significant volume. Intra-day low was 133.16.
15. FLS 90.38 -0.07 (-0.1%) | 50-day SMA: 92.48 | 100-day SMA: 83.59
Rising volume for four days in a row, all down days. Flowserve finished up from the intra-day low of 87.16.
16. FMCN 56.13 -0.08 (-0.1%) | 50-day SMA: 56.98 | 100-day SMA: 53.38
China stocks tended to be flat today, but mostly finished near their highs.
17. GS 191.75 +2.25 (+1.2%) | 50-day SMA: 216.57 | 100-day SMA: 210.22 | 200-day SMA: 211.94
Goldman got down to 183.70 today.
18. NKE 61.97 +0.14 (+0.2%) | 50-day SMA: 63.95 | 100-day SMA: 61.11
Nice volume, not much volatility in Nike. Steady.
19. CEO 180.63 +13.66 (+8.2%) | 50-day SMA: 175.35
Buying opportunity has come and gone. Huge volume, gap up ... spells trouble for shorts.
20. VMW 79.89 +5.39 (+7.2%) | 50-day SMA: 91.50 | 100-day SMA: 87.66
So-so volume on today's lift. Still cheap.
21. LULU 34.00 -2.93 (-7.9%) | 50-day SMA: 42.98 | 100-day SMA: 42.14 | 200-day SMA: n/a
Increasing volume in seven consecutive down days for lululemon.
22. MSFT 34.44 +0.99 (+2.9%) | 50-day SMA: 34.74 | 100-day SMA: 32.05
Not cheap. Can Mr. Softee hold its ground here?
23. AMZN 85.22 -2.66 (-3.0%) | 50-day SMA: 87.72 | 100-day SMA: 87.62 | 200-day SMA: 76.11
Amazon got down to 80.24 today. Strange price movement for a company that already said holiday sales were robust. Well off its recent high of 97.
24. EBAY 29.87 -0.14 )-0.4%) | 50-day SMA: 33.16 | 100-day SMA: 35.06 | 200-day SMA: 34.17
Four down sessions in a row. Extremely cheap.
25. LFC 76.40 +3.90 (+5.4%) | 50-day SMA: 82.43 | 100-day SMA: 82.25 | 200-day SMA: 66.91
The stock finally showed some life today, pun intended. Big volume, still cheap (below 100-day SMA).
1. AAPL 179.40 +8.15 (+4.7) | 50-day SMA: 182.76 | 100-day SMA: 166.66
Nice, increased volume on today's Apple rally. MacWorld is five days away.
2. GOOG 653.20 +21.52 (+3.4%) | 50-day SMA: 683.09 | 100-day SMA: 625.59
Nice volume here, too. Google actually traded below its 100-day SMA for a moment today.
3. RIMM 98.55 +2.11 (+2.2%) | 50-day SMA: 111.47 | 100-day SMA: 104.04 | 200-day SMA: 80.96
Long way to go for RIMM. Could not get over 122 after huge earnings and raised guidance. Today's volume was good, though.
4. ISRG 263.64 -8.09 (-3.0%) | 50-day SMA: 311.14 | 100-day SMA: 274.01 | 200-day SMA: 211.41
Hospitals can't afford the DaVinci system now? Looks like they want a discount and Intuitive Surgical is not really in position to say no.
5. NTDOY.PK n/a
6. POT 138.00 +0.09 (+0.1%) | 50-day SMA: 125.07
Fertilizer is in higher demand at a higher price globally than ... robotic surgery?
7. CHL 88.84 +4.45 (+5.2%) | 50-day SMA: 89.05 | 100-day SMA: 82.85 | 200-day SMA: 66.32
Possibly the best bargain that was available in the past week. Still relatively fair of a price.
8. PTR 182.12 +6.82 (+3.9%) | 50-day SMA: 195.16 | 100-day SMA: 186.24 | 200-day SMA: 158.75
Long crude oil? Short crude oil? The undeniable factor is China needs oil. Regardless.
9. FSLR 234.25 +3.75 (+1.6%) | 50-day SMA: 220.53
First Solar dipped below its 50-day SMA today (208). Otherwise, it was never cheap during the Nasdaq's 8-day selloff.
10. MCD 57.47 +0.39 (+0.7%) | 50-day SMA: 58.67 | 100-day SMA: 55.47
Is this the bottom for Mickey D? Will they crush Starbucks as Pete Najarian predicts?
11. STP 71.42 -3.68 (-4.9%) | 50-day SMA: 72.91 | 100-day SMA: 56.32
The market goes up, but Suntech falls below its 50-day SMA on major volume. At least it's heading toward a cheap price. Finally. Was cheaper earlier in the day at 65.76.
12. CMG 118.58 +0.71 (+0.6%) | 50-day SMA: 135.26 | 100-day SMA: 124.75 | 200-day SMA: 102.84
Still cheap, but will the street have confidence in consumer spending power in the face of a possible recession?
13. BIDU 344.10 -1.11 (-0.3%) | 50-day SMA: 367.70 | 100-day SMA: 318.88
Large volume, but basically flat. Baidu longs are happy though. Stock was down to 319.20 today before rallying.
14. FWLT 142.90 -0.59 (-0.4%) | 50-day SMA: 150.26 | 100-day SMA: 139.63
Foster Wheeler down for a fourth day in a row on significant volume. Intra-day low was 133.16.
15. FLS 90.38 -0.07 (-0.1%) | 50-day SMA: 92.48 | 100-day SMA: 83.59
Rising volume for four days in a row, all down days. Flowserve finished up from the intra-day low of 87.16.
16. FMCN 56.13 -0.08 (-0.1%) | 50-day SMA: 56.98 | 100-day SMA: 53.38
China stocks tended to be flat today, but mostly finished near their highs.
17. GS 191.75 +2.25 (+1.2%) | 50-day SMA: 216.57 | 100-day SMA: 210.22 | 200-day SMA: 211.94
Goldman got down to 183.70 today.
18. NKE 61.97 +0.14 (+0.2%) | 50-day SMA: 63.95 | 100-day SMA: 61.11
Nice volume, not much volatility in Nike. Steady.
19. CEO 180.63 +13.66 (+8.2%) | 50-day SMA: 175.35
Buying opportunity has come and gone. Huge volume, gap up ... spells trouble for shorts.
20. VMW 79.89 +5.39 (+7.2%) | 50-day SMA: 91.50 | 100-day SMA: 87.66
So-so volume on today's lift. Still cheap.
21. LULU 34.00 -2.93 (-7.9%) | 50-day SMA: 42.98 | 100-day SMA: 42.14 | 200-day SMA: n/a
Increasing volume in seven consecutive down days for lululemon.
22. MSFT 34.44 +0.99 (+2.9%) | 50-day SMA: 34.74 | 100-day SMA: 32.05
Not cheap. Can Mr. Softee hold its ground here?
23. AMZN 85.22 -2.66 (-3.0%) | 50-day SMA: 87.72 | 100-day SMA: 87.62 | 200-day SMA: 76.11
Amazon got down to 80.24 today. Strange price movement for a company that already said holiday sales were robust. Well off its recent high of 97.
24. EBAY 29.87 -0.14 )-0.4%) | 50-day SMA: 33.16 | 100-day SMA: 35.06 | 200-day SMA: 34.17
Four down sessions in a row. Extremely cheap.
25. LFC 76.40 +3.90 (+5.4%) | 50-day SMA: 82.43 | 100-day SMA: 82.25 | 200-day SMA: 66.91
The stock finally showed some life today, pun intended. Big volume, still cheap (below 100-day SMA).
Ins and Outs
Thanks to this Pupule portfolio (faux), I can take my mind off the dwindling value of my real portfolio. Here's goes a look at the Top 25 and where each stock stands relative to its simple moving averages.
Yesterday, 20 of the 25 were below their 50-day SMA. Today, all but two are below the 50-day. Scary and amazing.
1. AAPL 171.25 -6.39 (-3.6%) | 50-day SMA: 182.87 | 100-day SMA: 166.03
Apple will lead the rally.
2. GOOG 631.38 -17.57 (-2.7%) | 50-day SMA: 683.51 | 100-day SMA: 623.97
Do we see Google at 600? I thought it was long gone in the rear-view mirror.
3. RIMM 96.44 -3.39 (-3.4%) | 50-day SMA: 111.89 | 100-day SMA: 103.71 | 200-day SMA: 80.70
The way RIMM has been manipulated, I'm starting to wonder if the brokers and financials in general are totally pulling the carpet out from all us retail investors every chance they can. It started last year and seems to be a pattern of absolute craziness.
4. ISRG 271.73 -28.25 (-9.4%) | 50-day SMA: 312.45 | 100-day SMA: 273.27 | 200-day SMA: 210.71
Intuitive Surgical below its 100-day SMA? Now that's a shocker.
5. NTDOY.PK n/a
6. POT 137.91 -1.50 (-1.1%) | 50-day SMA: 124.64
Amazing. One of the few stocks that still isn't cheap yet.
7. CHL 84.39 -0.83 (-0.9%) | 50-day SMA: 89.29 | 100-day SMA: 82.47
China Mobile holding steady.
8. PTR 175.30 -1.85 (-1.0%) | 50-day SMA: 196.45 | 100-day SMA: 185.65 | 200-day SMA: 158.40
China and oil are married. No, they're joined at the hip. They have more money, they want their cars and they're going to drive them.
9. FSLR 230.50 -6.34 (-2.7%) | 50-day SMA: 218.95
Good night. First Solar is still not cheap. Holy crud.
10. MCD 57.08 -0.95 (-1.6%) | 50-day SMA: 58.66 | 100-day SMA: 55.37
The most successful restaurant chain in the world today. Can it hold support at 57?
11. STP 75.10 +0.14 (+0.2%) | 50-day SMA: 72.58
Nope. Not cheap. China solar play still pricey.
12. CMG 117.87 -6.11 (-4.9%) | 50-day SMA: 135.56 | 100-day SMA: 124.52 | 200-day SMA: 102.56
The most successfully growing restaurant chain in America. Too bad they don't have international exposure.
13. BIDU 345.21 +0.90 (+0.2%) | 50-day SMA: 367.88 | 100-day SMA: 317.12
Only China could produce a search engine that would dare challenge Google. Just the oddest possibility here that Baidu might actually win. Somehow. You know what I mean. It's China. They seriously want to win.
14. FWLT 143.49 -6.45 (-4.3%) | 50-day SMA: 150.46 | 100-day SMA: 139.09
Infrastructure rules. But don't buy here unless it's a small piece.
15. FLS 90.45 -0.05 (-0.1%) | 50-day SMA: 92.22 | 100-day SMA: 83.34
Another solid company that will triumph regardless of the economy.
16. FMCN 56.21 +0.07 (+0.12) | 50-day SMA: 57.00 | 100-day SMA: 53.18
China stocks mostly holding down the fort right now.
17. GS 189.50 -5.23 (-2.7%) | 50-day SMA: 217.45 | 100-day SMA: 210.00 | 200-day SMA: 212.03
The floor could be 160. These guys are the warlord emperors of financials. We will never know if and when they are actually struggling.
18. NKE 61.83 -0.28 (-0.4%) | 50-day SMA: 64.00 | 100-day SMA: 61.02
I wear these. Always have. Other shoes give my feet problems. But more than that, Nike will rule China. Their feet, at least. Nike doesn't like to lose. Ever.
19. CEO 166.97 -4.30 (-2.5%) | 50-day SMA: 175.69 | 100-day SMA: 161.25
Like PTR, CNOOC is holding its ground here.
20. VMW 74.50 +1.51 (+2.0%) | 50-day SMA: 92.14 | 100-day SMA: 87.43
Crappy market, but VMware rises. How?
21. LULU 36.93 -1.52 -3.9%) | 50-day SMA: 43.31 | 100-day SMA: 42.12
lululemon athletica had great earnings last quarter, but is the street really this bearish on their next earnings report?
22. MSFT 33.45 -1.16 (-3.3%) | 50-day SMA: 34.75 | 100-day SMA: 31.98
Not a big fan of Microsoft products, but the stock has quite a range.
23. AMZN 87.88 -0.94 (-1.0%) | 50-day SMA: 87.81 | 100-day SMA: 87.50
If the economy really is sliding, does that mean more people buy stuff online (no tax) at Amazon?
24. EBAY 30.01 -0.43 (-1.4%) | 50-day SMA: 33.29 | 100-day SMA: 35.10 | 200-day SMA: 34.19
Still waiting to see the rationale behind selling the leading online auction site in the face of a recession.
25. LFC 72.50 -1.30 (-1.7%) | 50-day SMA: 82.92 | 100-day SMA: 82.01 | 200-day SMA: 66.75
Like RIMM, China Life Insurance has fallen through previous support. Net key support at 68.
Yesterday, 20 of the 25 were below their 50-day SMA. Today, all but two are below the 50-day. Scary and amazing.
1. AAPL 171.25 -6.39 (-3.6%) | 50-day SMA: 182.87 | 100-day SMA: 166.03
Apple will lead the rally.
2. GOOG 631.38 -17.57 (-2.7%) | 50-day SMA: 683.51 | 100-day SMA: 623.97
Do we see Google at 600? I thought it was long gone in the rear-view mirror.
3. RIMM 96.44 -3.39 (-3.4%) | 50-day SMA: 111.89 | 100-day SMA: 103.71 | 200-day SMA: 80.70
The way RIMM has been manipulated, I'm starting to wonder if the brokers and financials in general are totally pulling the carpet out from all us retail investors every chance they can. It started last year and seems to be a pattern of absolute craziness.
4. ISRG 271.73 -28.25 (-9.4%) | 50-day SMA: 312.45 | 100-day SMA: 273.27 | 200-day SMA: 210.71
Intuitive Surgical below its 100-day SMA? Now that's a shocker.
5. NTDOY.PK n/a
6. POT 137.91 -1.50 (-1.1%) | 50-day SMA: 124.64
Amazing. One of the few stocks that still isn't cheap yet.
7. CHL 84.39 -0.83 (-0.9%) | 50-day SMA: 89.29 | 100-day SMA: 82.47
China Mobile holding steady.
8. PTR 175.30 -1.85 (-1.0%) | 50-day SMA: 196.45 | 100-day SMA: 185.65 | 200-day SMA: 158.40
China and oil are married. No, they're joined at the hip. They have more money, they want their cars and they're going to drive them.
9. FSLR 230.50 -6.34 (-2.7%) | 50-day SMA: 218.95
Good night. First Solar is still not cheap. Holy crud.
10. MCD 57.08 -0.95 (-1.6%) | 50-day SMA: 58.66 | 100-day SMA: 55.37
The most successful restaurant chain in the world today. Can it hold support at 57?
11. STP 75.10 +0.14 (+0.2%) | 50-day SMA: 72.58
Nope. Not cheap. China solar play still pricey.
12. CMG 117.87 -6.11 (-4.9%) | 50-day SMA: 135.56 | 100-day SMA: 124.52 | 200-day SMA: 102.56
The most successfully growing restaurant chain in America. Too bad they don't have international exposure.
13. BIDU 345.21 +0.90 (+0.2%) | 50-day SMA: 367.88 | 100-day SMA: 317.12
Only China could produce a search engine that would dare challenge Google. Just the oddest possibility here that Baidu might actually win. Somehow. You know what I mean. It's China. They seriously want to win.
14. FWLT 143.49 -6.45 (-4.3%) | 50-day SMA: 150.46 | 100-day SMA: 139.09
Infrastructure rules. But don't buy here unless it's a small piece.
15. FLS 90.45 -0.05 (-0.1%) | 50-day SMA: 92.22 | 100-day SMA: 83.34
Another solid company that will triumph regardless of the economy.
16. FMCN 56.21 +0.07 (+0.12) | 50-day SMA: 57.00 | 100-day SMA: 53.18
China stocks mostly holding down the fort right now.
17. GS 189.50 -5.23 (-2.7%) | 50-day SMA: 217.45 | 100-day SMA: 210.00 | 200-day SMA: 212.03
The floor could be 160. These guys are the warlord emperors of financials. We will never know if and when they are actually struggling.
18. NKE 61.83 -0.28 (-0.4%) | 50-day SMA: 64.00 | 100-day SMA: 61.02
I wear these. Always have. Other shoes give my feet problems. But more than that, Nike will rule China. Their feet, at least. Nike doesn't like to lose. Ever.
19. CEO 166.97 -4.30 (-2.5%) | 50-day SMA: 175.69 | 100-day SMA: 161.25
Like PTR, CNOOC is holding its ground here.
20. VMW 74.50 +1.51 (+2.0%) | 50-day SMA: 92.14 | 100-day SMA: 87.43
Crappy market, but VMware rises. How?
21. LULU 36.93 -1.52 -3.9%) | 50-day SMA: 43.31 | 100-day SMA: 42.12
lululemon athletica had great earnings last quarter, but is the street really this bearish on their next earnings report?
22. MSFT 33.45 -1.16 (-3.3%) | 50-day SMA: 34.75 | 100-day SMA: 31.98
Not a big fan of Microsoft products, but the stock has quite a range.
23. AMZN 87.88 -0.94 (-1.0%) | 50-day SMA: 87.81 | 100-day SMA: 87.50
If the economy really is sliding, does that mean more people buy stuff online (no tax) at Amazon?
24. EBAY 30.01 -0.43 (-1.4%) | 50-day SMA: 33.29 | 100-day SMA: 35.10 | 200-day SMA: 34.19
Still waiting to see the rationale behind selling the leading online auction site in the face of a recession.
25. LFC 72.50 -1.30 (-1.7%) | 50-day SMA: 82.92 | 100-day SMA: 82.01 | 200-day SMA: 66.75
Like RIMM, China Life Insurance has fallen through previous support. Net key support at 68.
Monday, January 7, 2008
Pupule portfolio
Twenty of my Top 25 stocks are now trading below their 50-day simple moving averages. That's a whopping percentage, especially compared to two weeks ago, when only eight were below the 50-day SMA.
More additions to the faux portfolio.
AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
AAPL | in at 177.64 (11 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
BIDU | in at 344.31 (6 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
AAPL | in at 177.64 (11 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
BIDU | in at 344.31 (6 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
CEO | in 167.22 (60 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
CHL | in at 84.65 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
CHL | in at 85.44 (23 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
CHL | in at 85.22 (47 shares) | 40% of position | 1/7/08
CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
CMG | in at 123.98 (16 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
EBAY | in at 32.49 (30 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
EBAY | in at 32.84 (61 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
EBAY | in at 30.44 (131 shares) 40% of position | 1/7/08
FLS | in at 90.50 (11 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08
FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
FMCN | in at 56.14 (36 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
FWLT | in at 149.94 (7 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08
GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
GOOG | in at 649.25 (3 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
GS | in 214.32 (47 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
ISRG | in at 299.98 (7 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
LFC | in 80.70 (124 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
LULU | in at 38.45 (52 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
MCD | in at 57.93 (17 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
MCD | in at 58.03 (52 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7.08
MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
MSFT | in at 34.61 (58 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
NKE | in at 62.71 (16 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
NKE | in at 62.11 (48 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08
PTR | in 181.72 (55 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
RIMM | in at 99.83 (20 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
VMW | in at 83.95 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
VMW | in at 72.99 (41 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08
CHL | in at 84.65 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
CHL | in at 85.44 (23 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
CHL | in at 85.22 (47 shares) | 40% of position | 1/7/08
CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
CMG | in at 123.98 (16 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
EBAY | in at 32.49 (30 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
EBAY | in at 32.84 (61 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
EBAY | in at 30.44 (131 shares) 40% of position | 1/7/08
FLS | in at 90.50 (11 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08
FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
FMCN | in at 56.14 (36 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
FWLT | in at 149.94 (7 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08
GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
GOOG | in at 649.25 (3 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
GS | in 214.32 (47 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
ISRG | in at 299.98 (7 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
LFC | in 80.70 (124 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
LULU | in at 38.45 (52 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
MCD | in at 57.93 (17 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
MCD | in at 58.03 (52 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7.08
MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
MSFT | in at 34.61 (58 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
NKE | in at 62.71 (16 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
NKE | in at 62.11 (48 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08
PTR | in 181.72 (55 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
RIMM | in at 99.83 (20 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08
VMW | in at 83.95 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
VMW | in at 72.99 (41 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08
Sunday, January 6, 2008
Pupule portfolio
Includes new additions to the faux portfolio
AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
CEO | in $167.22 (60 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
CHL | in at $84.65 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
CHL | in at 85.44 (23 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
EBAY | in at $32.49 (30 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
EBAY | in at 32.84 (61 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
GS | in $214.32 (47 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
LFC | in $80.70 (124 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
MCD | in at 57.93 (17 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
NKE | in at 62.71 (16 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
PTR | in $181.72 (55 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
VMW | in at 83.95 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
CEO | in $167.22 (60 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
CHL | in at $84.65 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
CHL | in at 85.44 (23 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
EBAY | in at $32.49 (30 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
EBAY | in at 32.84 (61 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
GS | in $214.32 (47 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
LFC | in $80.70 (124 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
MCD | in at 57.93 (17 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
NKE | in at 62.71 (16 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
PTR | in $181.72 (55 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07
RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
VMW | in at 83.95 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
Friday, January 4, 2008
Ins and Outs
Jon Najarian says the Fed must act, but even if the Fed were to slash rates, wouldn't they take their sweet ol' time as usual? That's why papertrading is no substitute for the real deal. With my Ins and Outs of the Top 25, it's easy to say, 'Yup, dive in on the cheap stocks today.' It's tempting only in real life. On paper, easily done. AAPL at 180? Deal. RIMM at 103? In.
Worst-case scenario: Fed refuses to act until its end-of-January meeting (if it acts) and the market crashes. Best-case scenario: Fed makes a bold move, earnings reports (which begin on Monday) are more bullish than expected. Market rises.
How bearish has the market become? Last week, only eight of my Top 25 were below their 50-day simple moving averages. yesterday, the number increased to 12. Today? Eighteen. Those of us in cash will reign.
1. AAPL 180.05 -14.88 (-7.6%) | 50-day SMA: 183.26 | 100-day SMA: 164.98
Big money got out of the big growth stocks today. AAPL is below its 50-day SMA for the first time since mid-November. Volume was the biggest since that period, too. MacWorld is around the corner. Inch in.
2. GOOG 657.00 -28.33 (-4.1%) | 50-day SMA: 684.78 | 100-day SMA: 621.23
Interesting price point here. Inch in is fine with an eye on a dip to the 100-day SMA (621). If GOOG falls through 621, it's a horror film in real life.
3. RIMM 103.35 -9.47 (-8.4%) | 50-day SMA: 112.82 | 100-day SMA: 103.10
Unlike AAPL and GOOG, volume in RIMM today wasn't as extreme. That doesn't give RIMM long any semblance of comfort. How can RIMM fall below its pre-earnings price? RIMM blitzed estimate and raised guidance. The patient will be rewarded. When the market recovers, RIMM will be among the rally leaders. Price is nice here to start inching in.
4. ISRG 305.00 -16.75 (-5.2%) | 50-day SMA: 313.95 | 100-day SMA: 271.47
Amazing. ISRG was so far above its moving averages just days ago, and now it's below its 50-day SMA. Inch in, though I think it may pull back to 275 if the Fed does nothing.
5. NTDOY.PK n/a
6. POT 142.65 -4.23 (-2.9%) | 50-day SMA: 123.57
Potash is almost immune to market turbulence and it's not the only fertilizer stock rocking the free world. Too pricey still.
7. CHL 83.88 -1.56 (-1.8%) | 50-day SMA: 89.83 | 100-day SMA: 81.82
Bears are in charge of this great stock. Four of the last six sessions have been down for China Mobile, and those four trading days had big volume compared to the up sessions. I'd continue to inch in here with an eye on 80 as a key support level.
8. PTR 176.00 +5.36 (+3.1%) | 50-day SMA: 199.40 | 100-day SMA: 184.71 | 200-day SMA: 157.72
PetroChina was due for a rally, and with crude oil hovering near $100/barrel, why not now? I started inching into PTR in the Pupule portfolio recently and will continue to do so at these levels. The world will always need oil. China needs oil. OK, maybe alternative energy becomes substantial within five years. That's plenty of time for PTR to run.
9. FSLR 245.58 -20.29 (-7.6%) | 50-day SMA: 215.47 | 100-day SMA: 163.93
Finally, a gap down, and yet, First Solar is miles from any kind of a fair price. Wait.
10. MCD 57.05 -0.88 (-1.5%) | 50-day SMA: 58.61 | 100-day SMA: 55.15
A pullback like this in McDonald's is absolutely stupid. Now 11% down from its recent high, MCD is still selling a ton of latte, a ton of snack wraps (kids love 'em) and basically stealing customers from Starbucks. (A Mickey D and Starbucks were built next to each other recently in Honolulu. Guess which one is always packed and which one is half-empty?) The "Dollar Menu" at McDonald's is BUILT for recessions. Certainly worth inching in here.
11. STP 81.84 -6.38 (-7.2%) | 50-day SMA: 71.64
Buy here? Fuggedaboudit. Today's pullback is a speck of dust compared to this insane run from 45. Wait.
12. CMG 127.01 -14.69 (-10.4%) | 50-day SMA: 135.77 | 100-day SMA: 124.02
Chipotle Mexican Grill is getting cheaper and cheaper. This is a nice price to inch in, but will consumers opt to buy fast, healthy Mexican food rather than the dollar menu at Mickey D's?
13. BIDU 361.00 -14.09 (-3.7%) | 50-day SMA: 367.50 | 100-day SMA: 313.93
After five down days in a row, Baidu is worth inching in here. Still easily capable of falling to support level at 300.
14. FWLT 159.69 -9.48 (-5.6%) | 50-day SMA: 150.46
Recession proof? Possibly. But this price is still too high.
15. FLS 93.20 -2.95 (-3.1%) | 50-day SMA: 91.71
Another stock that thrives in global growth, but pricey here. Wait.
16. FMCN 55.71 -3.27 (-5.5%) | 50-day SMA: 57.00 | 100-day SMA: 52.83
Down big on moderate volume, worth inching in here.
17. GS 199.93 -4.91 (-2.4%) | 50-day SMA: 218.79 | 100-day SMA: 209.50 | 200-day SMA: 212.21
Goldman Sachs is king and emperor of the financials, the Godfather of Greenbacks. And yet, the stock is on thin ice right here; 200 is a key support level. If GS falls through, next stop is 180, and then 160. Inching in is a good idea, but don't dive head first.
18. NKE 61.74 -0.97 (-1.5%) | 50-day SMA: 64.06 | 100-day SMA: 60.86
Fair price, almost good. Six down days in a row, but I like the growing international exposure (China) and commitment.
19. CEO 170.50 +0.66 (+0.4%) | 50-day SMA: 176.57 | 100-day SMA: 159.95
Like PetroChina, CNOOC Ltd. is a state-owned entity in the Middle Kingdom. I missed the boat on CEO twice: once at 91, later at 111. With the latter, the P/E was only 12. Then it ran to 215. Here, CEO is still a fair price, but I'd inch in only. The stock has run up with increasing volume for two days and could be due for a pullback.
20. VMW 80.49 -3.46 (-4.1%) | 50-day SMA: 94.54 | 100-day SMA: 87.04
Dead money for a few weeks now unless you're a short. Nice price for a near-term trade, though. Inching in for the Pupule portfolio with an eye on support at 71.
21. LULU 40.54 -4.22 (-9.4%) | 50-day SMA: 43.95 | 100-day SMA: 42.03
Today's hellacious jobs report casts a bad omen for retailers. Pricey yoga pants ($100/pair) aren't a big priority if and when we head into a recession. But I do think that lululemon athletica's core customers are not affected by layoffs in the financial and homebuilding sectors. LULU's customers will continue to work out, and they will show off the results by purchasing lululemon pants. Women 18-35 will keep on keepin' on. They will keep spending. It's the vanity factor. It works well.
22. MSFT 34.38 -0.99 (-2.8%) | 50-day SMA: 34.65 | 100-day SMA: 31.86
The Halo effect is done. What drives Mister Softee from here? As Sgt. Schultz often said, "I see nothing!" Scaling in here for a near-term trade on the Pupule portfolio.
23. AMZN 88.79 -6.42 (-6.7%) | 50-day SMA: 87.82 | 100-day SMA: 87.19
Another stock, like RIMM, that will lead a market rally if the Fed cuts. Amazon bluntly told the world that unlike other struggling online retailers, its sales were quite fine, thank you. Price is better, but not quite good yet. Wait.
24. EBAY 31.30 -1.54 (-4.7%) | 50-day SMA: 33.51 | 100-day SMA: 35.19 | 200-day SMA: 34.20
If the country is heading for a recession, it will be the eBays of the world that will benefit. Still, the stock took a hit today. Inching in on the Pupule portfolio.
25. LFC 73.00 -1.64 (-2.2%) | 50-day SMA: 83.99 | 100-day SMA: 81.68 | 200-day SMA: 66.44
Does anyone really think life insurance won't work in China? This is a land, as I've mentioned before, where ancestor worship was once the rule. As the middle-agers accumulate wealth, they will put their hard-earned money into life insurance while the younger generation plays the stock market.
On the cusp: Taking a close look this weekend at Costco and Altria as additions to the Top 25.
Worst-case scenario: Fed refuses to act until its end-of-January meeting (if it acts) and the market crashes. Best-case scenario: Fed makes a bold move, earnings reports (which begin on Monday) are more bullish than expected. Market rises.
How bearish has the market become? Last week, only eight of my Top 25 were below their 50-day simple moving averages. yesterday, the number increased to 12. Today? Eighteen. Those of us in cash will reign.
1. AAPL 180.05 -14.88 (-7.6%) | 50-day SMA: 183.26 | 100-day SMA: 164.98
Big money got out of the big growth stocks today. AAPL is below its 50-day SMA for the first time since mid-November. Volume was the biggest since that period, too. MacWorld is around the corner. Inch in.
2. GOOG 657.00 -28.33 (-4.1%) | 50-day SMA: 684.78 | 100-day SMA: 621.23
Interesting price point here. Inch in is fine with an eye on a dip to the 100-day SMA (621). If GOOG falls through 621, it's a horror film in real life.
3. RIMM 103.35 -9.47 (-8.4%) | 50-day SMA: 112.82 | 100-day SMA: 103.10
Unlike AAPL and GOOG, volume in RIMM today wasn't as extreme. That doesn't give RIMM long any semblance of comfort. How can RIMM fall below its pre-earnings price? RIMM blitzed estimate and raised guidance. The patient will be rewarded. When the market recovers, RIMM will be among the rally leaders. Price is nice here to start inching in.
4. ISRG 305.00 -16.75 (-5.2%) | 50-day SMA: 313.95 | 100-day SMA: 271.47
Amazing. ISRG was so far above its moving averages just days ago, and now it's below its 50-day SMA. Inch in, though I think it may pull back to 275 if the Fed does nothing.
5. NTDOY.PK n/a
6. POT 142.65 -4.23 (-2.9%) | 50-day SMA: 123.57
Potash is almost immune to market turbulence and it's not the only fertilizer stock rocking the free world. Too pricey still.
7. CHL 83.88 -1.56 (-1.8%) | 50-day SMA: 89.83 | 100-day SMA: 81.82
Bears are in charge of this great stock. Four of the last six sessions have been down for China Mobile, and those four trading days had big volume compared to the up sessions. I'd continue to inch in here with an eye on 80 as a key support level.
8. PTR 176.00 +5.36 (+3.1%) | 50-day SMA: 199.40 | 100-day SMA: 184.71 | 200-day SMA: 157.72
PetroChina was due for a rally, and with crude oil hovering near $100/barrel, why not now? I started inching into PTR in the Pupule portfolio recently and will continue to do so at these levels. The world will always need oil. China needs oil. OK, maybe alternative energy becomes substantial within five years. That's plenty of time for PTR to run.
9. FSLR 245.58 -20.29 (-7.6%) | 50-day SMA: 215.47 | 100-day SMA: 163.93
Finally, a gap down, and yet, First Solar is miles from any kind of a fair price. Wait.
10. MCD 57.05 -0.88 (-1.5%) | 50-day SMA: 58.61 | 100-day SMA: 55.15
A pullback like this in McDonald's is absolutely stupid. Now 11% down from its recent high, MCD is still selling a ton of latte, a ton of snack wraps (kids love 'em) and basically stealing customers from Starbucks. (A Mickey D and Starbucks were built next to each other recently in Honolulu. Guess which one is always packed and which one is half-empty?) The "Dollar Menu" at McDonald's is BUILT for recessions. Certainly worth inching in here.
11. STP 81.84 -6.38 (-7.2%) | 50-day SMA: 71.64
Buy here? Fuggedaboudit. Today's pullback is a speck of dust compared to this insane run from 45. Wait.
12. CMG 127.01 -14.69 (-10.4%) | 50-day SMA: 135.77 | 100-day SMA: 124.02
Chipotle Mexican Grill is getting cheaper and cheaper. This is a nice price to inch in, but will consumers opt to buy fast, healthy Mexican food rather than the dollar menu at Mickey D's?
13. BIDU 361.00 -14.09 (-3.7%) | 50-day SMA: 367.50 | 100-day SMA: 313.93
After five down days in a row, Baidu is worth inching in here. Still easily capable of falling to support level at 300.
14. FWLT 159.69 -9.48 (-5.6%) | 50-day SMA: 150.46
Recession proof? Possibly. But this price is still too high.
15. FLS 93.20 -2.95 (-3.1%) | 50-day SMA: 91.71
Another stock that thrives in global growth, but pricey here. Wait.
16. FMCN 55.71 -3.27 (-5.5%) | 50-day SMA: 57.00 | 100-day SMA: 52.83
Down big on moderate volume, worth inching in here.
17. GS 199.93 -4.91 (-2.4%) | 50-day SMA: 218.79 | 100-day SMA: 209.50 | 200-day SMA: 212.21
Goldman Sachs is king and emperor of the financials, the Godfather of Greenbacks. And yet, the stock is on thin ice right here; 200 is a key support level. If GS falls through, next stop is 180, and then 160. Inching in is a good idea, but don't dive head first.
18. NKE 61.74 -0.97 (-1.5%) | 50-day SMA: 64.06 | 100-day SMA: 60.86
Fair price, almost good. Six down days in a row, but I like the growing international exposure (China) and commitment.
19. CEO 170.50 +0.66 (+0.4%) | 50-day SMA: 176.57 | 100-day SMA: 159.95
Like PetroChina, CNOOC Ltd. is a state-owned entity in the Middle Kingdom. I missed the boat on CEO twice: once at 91, later at 111. With the latter, the P/E was only 12. Then it ran to 215. Here, CEO is still a fair price, but I'd inch in only. The stock has run up with increasing volume for two days and could be due for a pullback.
20. VMW 80.49 -3.46 (-4.1%) | 50-day SMA: 94.54 | 100-day SMA: 87.04
Dead money for a few weeks now unless you're a short. Nice price for a near-term trade, though. Inching in for the Pupule portfolio with an eye on support at 71.
21. LULU 40.54 -4.22 (-9.4%) | 50-day SMA: 43.95 | 100-day SMA: 42.03
Today's hellacious jobs report casts a bad omen for retailers. Pricey yoga pants ($100/pair) aren't a big priority if and when we head into a recession. But I do think that lululemon athletica's core customers are not affected by layoffs in the financial and homebuilding sectors. LULU's customers will continue to work out, and they will show off the results by purchasing lululemon pants. Women 18-35 will keep on keepin' on. They will keep spending. It's the vanity factor. It works well.
22. MSFT 34.38 -0.99 (-2.8%) | 50-day SMA: 34.65 | 100-day SMA: 31.86
The Halo effect is done. What drives Mister Softee from here? As Sgt. Schultz often said, "I see nothing!" Scaling in here for a near-term trade on the Pupule portfolio.
23. AMZN 88.79 -6.42 (-6.7%) | 50-day SMA: 87.82 | 100-day SMA: 87.19
Another stock, like RIMM, that will lead a market rally if the Fed cuts. Amazon bluntly told the world that unlike other struggling online retailers, its sales were quite fine, thank you. Price is better, but not quite good yet. Wait.
24. EBAY 31.30 -1.54 (-4.7%) | 50-day SMA: 33.51 | 100-day SMA: 35.19 | 200-day SMA: 34.20
If the country is heading for a recession, it will be the eBays of the world that will benefit. Still, the stock took a hit today. Inching in on the Pupule portfolio.
25. LFC 73.00 -1.64 (-2.2%) | 50-day SMA: 83.99 | 100-day SMA: 81.68 | 200-day SMA: 66.44
Does anyone really think life insurance won't work in China? This is a land, as I've mentioned before, where ancestor worship was once the rule. As the middle-agers accumulate wealth, they will put their hard-earned money into life insurance while the younger generation plays the stock market.
On the cusp: Taking a close look this weekend at Costco and Altria as additions to the Top 25.
Thursday, January 3, 2008
Ins and Outs
Well, well. There are now 12 stocks among my Top 25 that are trading below their simple moving averages. (One is very, very close.) Yesterday, only nine were on the radar.
Buys? Not necessarily. But worth exploring.
1. AAPL 194.93 • 50-day SMA: 183.39 • Wait
2. GOOG 685.53 • 50-day SMA: 685.16 • Up just 14¢ on lower volume. Wait
3. RIMM 112.82 • 50-day SMA: 113.25 • Fair price, but mediocre volume says this is dead money near term
4. ISRG 321.75 • 50-day SMA: 313.94 • Wait
5. NTDOY.PK 74.55 • 50-day SMA: n/a • Recent 50-day was 73.13. Wait
6. POT 146.88 • 50-day SMA: 122.90 • Wait. It may take almost forever, but wait
7. CHL 85.44 • 50-day SMA: 90.13 • 100-day SMA: 81.52 • Up 79¢ on lower volume. Good price. Inch in and expect a better price
8. PTR 170.64 • 50-day SMA: 201.02 • 100-day SMA: 184.28 • 200-day SMA: 157.38 • Plunging on low volume. Great price. Inch in
9. FSLR 265.87 • 50-day SMA: 213.56 • Wait
10. MCD 57.93 • 50-day SMA: 58.58 • 100-day SMA: 55.05 • Fair price, great earnings, inch in
11. STP 88.22 • 50-day SMA: 70.94 • 24% over its 50-day SMA. Ridiculous. Wait
12. CMG 141.70 • 50-day SMA: 135.77 • Wait
13. BIDU 375.09 • 50-day SMA: 367.28 • Sideways action since October. CFO's mysterious death doesn't help
14. FWLT 169.17 • 50-day SMA: 150.15 • Big gap up today (4.7%). Wait
15. FLS 96.15 • 50-day SMA: 91.43 • Traded seemingly forever in the 60s and 70s. Pricey now. Wait
16. FMCN 58.98 • 50-day SMA: 57.04 • Wait
17. GS 204.84 • 50-day SMA: 219.26 • 100-day SMA: 209.27 • 200-day SMA: 212.26 • Down 1.3% today. Great price, inch in
18. NKE 62.71 • 50-day SMA: 64.10 • 100-day SMA: 60.80 • Six down days in a row. Fair price, inch in
19. CEO 169.84 • 50-day SMA: 176.96 • 100-day SMA: 159.33 • Fair price, up 1.4% on increased volume
20. VMW 83.95 • 50-day SMA: 94.05 • Fair price, facing stiff competition long term. Inch in for near-term trade only
21. LULU 44.76 • 50-day SMA: 44.29 • Fair price, low volume. Long way from earnings, likely to fall more
22. MSFT 35.37 • 50-day SMA: 34.58 • Wait
23. AMZN 95.21 • 50-day SMA: 88.06 • Wait
24. EBAY 32.85 • 50-day SMA: 33.60 • 100-day SMA: 35.23 • 200-day SMA: 34.21 • Dysfunctional stock, crummy policing of ripoff sellers. PayPal is undeniably strong, though. Great price, horrible volume. Inch in for near-term trade
25. LFC 74.64 • 50-day SMA: 84.57 • 100-day SMA: 81.53 • 200-day SMA: 66.29 • Good price, down five sessions in a row. Inch in
Buys? Not necessarily. But worth exploring.
1. AAPL 194.93 • 50-day SMA: 183.39 • Wait
2. GOOG 685.53 • 50-day SMA: 685.16 • Up just 14¢ on lower volume. Wait
3. RIMM 112.82 • 50-day SMA: 113.25 • Fair price, but mediocre volume says this is dead money near term
4. ISRG 321.75 • 50-day SMA: 313.94 • Wait
5. NTDOY.PK 74.55 • 50-day SMA: n/a • Recent 50-day was 73.13. Wait
6. POT 146.88 • 50-day SMA: 122.90 • Wait. It may take almost forever, but wait
7. CHL 85.44 • 50-day SMA: 90.13 • 100-day SMA: 81.52 • Up 79¢ on lower volume. Good price. Inch in and expect a better price
8. PTR 170.64 • 50-day SMA: 201.02 • 100-day SMA: 184.28 • 200-day SMA: 157.38 • Plunging on low volume. Great price. Inch in
9. FSLR 265.87 • 50-day SMA: 213.56 • Wait
10. MCD 57.93 • 50-day SMA: 58.58 • 100-day SMA: 55.05 • Fair price, great earnings, inch in
11. STP 88.22 • 50-day SMA: 70.94 • 24% over its 50-day SMA. Ridiculous. Wait
12. CMG 141.70 • 50-day SMA: 135.77 • Wait
13. BIDU 375.09 • 50-day SMA: 367.28 • Sideways action since October. CFO's mysterious death doesn't help
14. FWLT 169.17 • 50-day SMA: 150.15 • Big gap up today (4.7%). Wait
15. FLS 96.15 • 50-day SMA: 91.43 • Traded seemingly forever in the 60s and 70s. Pricey now. Wait
16. FMCN 58.98 • 50-day SMA: 57.04 • Wait
17. GS 204.84 • 50-day SMA: 219.26 • 100-day SMA: 209.27 • 200-day SMA: 212.26 • Down 1.3% today. Great price, inch in
18. NKE 62.71 • 50-day SMA: 64.10 • 100-day SMA: 60.80 • Six down days in a row. Fair price, inch in
19. CEO 169.84 • 50-day SMA: 176.96 • 100-day SMA: 159.33 • Fair price, up 1.4% on increased volume
20. VMW 83.95 • 50-day SMA: 94.05 • Fair price, facing stiff competition long term. Inch in for near-term trade only
21. LULU 44.76 • 50-day SMA: 44.29 • Fair price, low volume. Long way from earnings, likely to fall more
22. MSFT 35.37 • 50-day SMA: 34.58 • Wait
23. AMZN 95.21 • 50-day SMA: 88.06 • Wait
24. EBAY 32.85 • 50-day SMA: 33.60 • 100-day SMA: 35.23 • 200-day SMA: 34.21 • Dysfunctional stock, crummy policing of ripoff sellers. PayPal is undeniably strong, though. Great price, horrible volume. Inch in for near-term trade
25. LFC 74.64 • 50-day SMA: 84.57 • 100-day SMA: 81.53 • 200-day SMA: 66.29 • Good price, down five sessions in a row. Inch in
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
Ins and Outs
Two sessions ago, eight of my favorite 25 stocks showed up on the radar. They had interesting prices. Not all necessarily had entry points to buy. After today's session, there are nine stocks on the radar.
based on closing prices, Jan. 2, 2007
1. AAPL 194 • 50-day SMA: 182 • Wait
2. GOOG 685 • 50-day SMA: 684 • 100-day SMA: 618 • Wait
3. RIMM 113.71 • 50-day SMA: 113.26 • 100-day SMA: 102 • Wait
4. ISRG 323 • 50-day SMA: 313 • Wait
5. NTDOY.PK 73.95 • 50-day SMA: 73.13 • 100-day SMA: 67 • Wait
6. POT 146 • 50-day SMA: 122 • Wait
7. CHL 84 • 50-day SMA: 90 • 100-day SMA: 81 • Good price, could get better • chart
8. PTR 173 • 50-day SMA: 202 • 100-day SMA: 183 • 200-day SMA: 157 • Very good price • chart
9. FSLR 267 • 50-day SMA: 210 • Wait
10. MCD 58.10 • 50-day SMA: 58.51 • 100-day SMA: 54.95 • Fair price, could be cheaper • chart
11. STP 85 • 50-day SMA: 70 • Wait
12. CMG 146 • 50-day SMA: 135 • Wait
13. BIDU 381 • 50-day SMA: 366 • Wait
14. FWLT 161 • 50-day SMA: 149 • Wait
15. FLS 94 • 50-day SMA: 91 • Wait
16. FMCN 57.13 • 50-day SMA: 56.96 • 100-day SMA: 52.50 • Wait
17. GS 207 • 50-day SMA: 219 • 100-day SMA: 209 • 200-day SMA: 212 • Great price, could get better • chart
18. NKE 63.28 • 50-day SMA: 64.11 • 100-day SMA: 60 • Fair price, could be cheaper • chart
19. CEO 167 • 50-day SMA: 177 • 100-day SMA: 158 • Good price, could get better • chart
20. VMW 84 • 50-day SMA: 94 • Good price, could get better • chart
21. LULU 44.82 • 50-day SMA: 44.55 • Wait
22. MSFT 35.22 • 50-day SMA: 34.48 • Wait
23. AMZN 96 • 50-day SMA: 87 • Wait
24. EBAY 32.49 • 50-day SMA: 33.67 • 100-day SMA: 35.26 • 200-day SMA: 34.20 • Great price for a short-term trade • chart
25. LFC 74 • 50-day SMA: 85 • 100-day SMA: 81 • 200-day SMA: 66 • Good price, could get better • chart
As always, the best approach when a good stock dips is to wade in rather than dive headfirst.
> > > Pyramiding into a stock
based on closing prices, Jan. 2, 2007
1. AAPL 194 • 50-day SMA: 182 • Wait
2. GOOG 685 • 50-day SMA: 684 • 100-day SMA: 618 • Wait
3. RIMM 113.71 • 50-day SMA: 113.26 • 100-day SMA: 102 • Wait
4. ISRG 323 • 50-day SMA: 313 • Wait
5. NTDOY.PK 73.95 • 50-day SMA: 73.13 • 100-day SMA: 67 • Wait
6. POT 146 • 50-day SMA: 122 • Wait
7. CHL 84 • 50-day SMA: 90 • 100-day SMA: 81 • Good price, could get better • chart
8. PTR 173 • 50-day SMA: 202 • 100-day SMA: 183 • 200-day SMA: 157 • Very good price • chart
9. FSLR 267 • 50-day SMA: 210 • Wait
10. MCD 58.10 • 50-day SMA: 58.51 • 100-day SMA: 54.95 • Fair price, could be cheaper • chart
11. STP 85 • 50-day SMA: 70 • Wait
12. CMG 146 • 50-day SMA: 135 • Wait
13. BIDU 381 • 50-day SMA: 366 • Wait
14. FWLT 161 • 50-day SMA: 149 • Wait
15. FLS 94 • 50-day SMA: 91 • Wait
16. FMCN 57.13 • 50-day SMA: 56.96 • 100-day SMA: 52.50 • Wait
17. GS 207 • 50-day SMA: 219 • 100-day SMA: 209 • 200-day SMA: 212 • Great price, could get better • chart
18. NKE 63.28 • 50-day SMA: 64.11 • 100-day SMA: 60 • Fair price, could be cheaper • chart
19. CEO 167 • 50-day SMA: 177 • 100-day SMA: 158 • Good price, could get better • chart
20. VMW 84 • 50-day SMA: 94 • Good price, could get better • chart
21. LULU 44.82 • 50-day SMA: 44.55 • Wait
22. MSFT 35.22 • 50-day SMA: 34.48 • Wait
23. AMZN 96 • 50-day SMA: 87 • Wait
24. EBAY 32.49 • 50-day SMA: 33.67 • 100-day SMA: 35.26 • 200-day SMA: 34.20 • Great price for a short-term trade • chart
25. LFC 74 • 50-day SMA: 85 • 100-day SMA: 81 • 200-day SMA: 66 • Good price, could get better • chart
As always, the best approach when a good stock dips is to wade in rather than dive headfirst.
> > > Pyramiding into a stock
Sunday, December 30, 2007
Top 25: Ins and Outs
Tomorrow's market will likely be light, shallow, not much different from last week. Still, here's a look at my 25 favorite stocks and their prices. Any price is worth looking at. Few prices are worth paying for.
based on closing prices, Dec. 28, 2007
1. AAPL 199 • 50-day SMA: 182 • Wait
2. GOOG 702 • 50-day SMA: 682 • Wait
3. RIMM 116 • 50-day SMA: 113 • Wait
4. ISRG 325 • 50-day SMA: 310 • Wait
5. NTDOY.PK 73.75 • 50-day SMA: 73.05 • Wait
6. POT 144 • 50-day SMA: 120 • Wait
7. CHL 86 • 50-day SMA: 90 • 100-day SMA: 80 • Good price, could get better • chart
8. PTR 175 • 50-day SMA: 205 • 100-day SMA: 183 • 200-day SMA: 156 • Very good price • chart
9. FSLR 266 • 50-day SMA: 205 • Wait
10. MCD 59.50 • 50-day SMA: 58.37 • Wait
11. STP 81 • 50-day SMA: 68 • Wait
12. CMG 151 • 50-day SMA: 134 • Wait
13. BIDU 398 • 50-day SMA: 363 • Wait
14. FWLT 156 • 50-day SMA: 149 • Wait
15. FLS 98 • 50-day SMA: 90 • Wait
16. FMCN 56.84 • 50-day SMA: 56.98 • 100-day SMA: 52 • Fair price, could get better • chart
17. GS 211 • 50-day SMA: 220 • 100-day SMA: 208 • Good price, could get better • chart
18. NKE 64.31 • 50-day SMA: 64.08 • Wait
19. CEO 165 • 50-day SMA: 177 • 100-day SMA: 157 • Good price, could get better • chart
20. VMW 83 • 50-day SMA: 95 • Good price, could get better • chart
21. LULU 47 • 50-day SMA: 44 • Wait
22. MSFT 36 • 50-day SMA: 34 • Wait
23. AMZN 94 • 50-day SMA: 87 • Wait
24. EBAY 33.78 • 50-day SMA: 33.85 • 100-day SMA: 35.34 • Fair price, could get better • chart
25. LFC 77 • 50-day SMA: 86 • 100-day SMA: 81 • 200-day SMA: 65 • Good price, could get better • chart
based on closing prices, Dec. 28, 2007
1. AAPL 199 • 50-day SMA: 182 • Wait
2. GOOG 702 • 50-day SMA: 682 • Wait
3. RIMM 116 • 50-day SMA: 113 • Wait
4. ISRG 325 • 50-day SMA: 310 • Wait
5. NTDOY.PK 73.75 • 50-day SMA: 73.05 • Wait
6. POT 144 • 50-day SMA: 120 • Wait
7. CHL 86 • 50-day SMA: 90 • 100-day SMA: 80 • Good price, could get better • chart
8. PTR 175 • 50-day SMA: 205 • 100-day SMA: 183 • 200-day SMA: 156 • Very good price • chart
9. FSLR 266 • 50-day SMA: 205 • Wait
10. MCD 59.50 • 50-day SMA: 58.37 • Wait
11. STP 81 • 50-day SMA: 68 • Wait
12. CMG 151 • 50-day SMA: 134 • Wait
13. BIDU 398 • 50-day SMA: 363 • Wait
14. FWLT 156 • 50-day SMA: 149 • Wait
15. FLS 98 • 50-day SMA: 90 • Wait
16. FMCN 56.84 • 50-day SMA: 56.98 • 100-day SMA: 52 • Fair price, could get better • chart
17. GS 211 • 50-day SMA: 220 • 100-day SMA: 208 • Good price, could get better • chart
18. NKE 64.31 • 50-day SMA: 64.08 • Wait
19. CEO 165 • 50-day SMA: 177 • 100-day SMA: 157 • Good price, could get better • chart
20. VMW 83 • 50-day SMA: 95 • Good price, could get better • chart
21. LULU 47 • 50-day SMA: 44 • Wait
22. MSFT 36 • 50-day SMA: 34 • Wait
23. AMZN 94 • 50-day SMA: 87 • Wait
24. EBAY 33.78 • 50-day SMA: 33.85 • 100-day SMA: 35.34 • Fair price, could get better • chart
25. LFC 77 • 50-day SMA: 86 • 100-day SMA: 81 • 200-day SMA: 65 • Good price, could get better • chart
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
Top 25: Ins and Outs
Dec. 25, 2007
1. AAPL 198 • 50-day SMA: 180 • Wait
2. GOOG 700 • 50-day SMA: 677 • Wait
3. RIMM 117 • 50-day SMA: 112 • Wait
4. ISRG 333 • 50-day SMA: 305 • Wait
5. NTDOY.PK 73 • 50-day SMA: 73 • 100-day SMA: 66 • Fair price
6. POT 139 • 50-day SMA: 118 • Wait
7. CHL 91 • 50-day SMA: 90 • 100-day SMA: 79 • Wait
8. PTR 181 • 50-day SMA: 209 • 100-day SMA: 181 • 200-day SMA: 155 • Good price
9. FSLR 272 • 50-day SMA: 197 • Wait
10. MCD 60 • 50-day SMA: 58 • Wait
11. STP 87 • 50-day SMA: 66 • Wait
12. CMG 248 • 50-day SMA: 132 • Wait
13. BIDU 380 • 50-day SMA: 358 • Wait
14. FWLT 164 • 50-day SMA: 148 • Wait
15. FLS 99 • 50-day SMA: 89 • Wait
16. FMCN 58 • 50-day SMA: 57 • 100-day SMA: 49 • Wait
17. GS 214 • 50-day SMA: 220 • 100-day SMA: 207 • Good price
18. NKE 66 • 50-day SMA: 63 • Wait
19. CEO 167 • 50-day SMA: 179 • 100-day SMA: 156 • Good price
20. VMW 88 • 50-day SMA: 95 • Good price
21. LULU 49 • 50-day SMA 44 • Wait
22. MSFT 36 • 50-day SMA: 33 • Wait
23. AMZN 91 • 50-day SMA: 87 • Wait
24. EBAY 34 • 50-day SMA: 34 • 100-day SM: 35 • Fair price
25. LFC 80 • 50-day SMA: 87 • 100-day SMA: 80 • Good price
1. AAPL 198 • 50-day SMA: 180 • Wait
2. GOOG 700 • 50-day SMA: 677 • Wait
3. RIMM 117 • 50-day SMA: 112 • Wait
4. ISRG 333 • 50-day SMA: 305 • Wait
5. NTDOY.PK 73 • 50-day SMA: 73 • 100-day SMA: 66 • Fair price
6. POT 139 • 50-day SMA: 118 • Wait
7. CHL 91 • 50-day SMA: 90 • 100-day SMA: 79 • Wait
8. PTR 181 • 50-day SMA: 209 • 100-day SMA: 181 • 200-day SMA: 155 • Good price
9. FSLR 272 • 50-day SMA: 197 • Wait
10. MCD 60 • 50-day SMA: 58 • Wait
11. STP 87 • 50-day SMA: 66 • Wait
12. CMG 248 • 50-day SMA: 132 • Wait
13. BIDU 380 • 50-day SMA: 358 • Wait
14. FWLT 164 • 50-day SMA: 148 • Wait
15. FLS 99 • 50-day SMA: 89 • Wait
16. FMCN 58 • 50-day SMA: 57 • 100-day SMA: 49 • Wait
17. GS 214 • 50-day SMA: 220 • 100-day SMA: 207 • Good price
18. NKE 66 • 50-day SMA: 63 • Wait
19. CEO 167 • 50-day SMA: 179 • 100-day SMA: 156 • Good price
20. VMW 88 • 50-day SMA: 95 • Good price
21. LULU 49 • 50-day SMA 44 • Wait
22. MSFT 36 • 50-day SMA: 33 • Wait
23. AMZN 91 • 50-day SMA: 87 • Wait
24. EBAY 34 • 50-day SMA: 34 • 100-day SM: 35 • Fair price
25. LFC 80 • 50-day SMA: 87 • 100-day SMA: 80 • Good price
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