The impeccable Koolau Mountains to the left. Diamond Head to the right. Well, if I could see through concrete walls, that's where I am.
Busy lately, as busy as ever, but not so much with lots of stuff as much as studying certain things like prep sports and the market. But what's equally interesting -- and sometimes painful -- is realizing that the biggest asset and detriment is myself. That's what the market always teaches: balance requires discipline, and that's always been one of my, uhhh, well it's never been a huge strength. Except for those springs and summers and falls when I diligently went to the park to work on my handles and pull-up jumpers.
Miles Ogawa was quite a teacher for me. He didn't coach me once I was done playing JV basketball, but his teaching/coaching stayed with me and I shared the zeal he had about defensive positioning and technique. His 60-shot drill stayed with me on those quiet afternoons at Ala Wai Park.
Anyway, Coach Miles was one of the very best. Thanks Coach!
I don't consider myself an athlete by any means, nor do I consider myself an athlete in the market, where most of us small fries are just trying to pick and choose our way to profitability. Learning to cut losses early and not just often, but ALWAYS, is a never ending challenge. It goes against some of my natural tendencies, like sticking it out when things get tough (perseverance). Bagholding a stock is not perseverance, though. It's stupidity and it can be costly.
I'm currently bagholding LVS and DNDN. I believe strongly that both will continue to rise and that there's no need to sell until then. I took a big hit in the past month on DNDN (should've sold quickly after it leaped to 28) and decided to sell at break-even after having a huge paper profit, then got back in, didn't sell while it was up and now it's down a few bucks; I also took a hit on BAC after earnings when it gapped down in the morning from near 11 to about 8-9. Instead of holding, I decided to get out. That was driven by fear, and apparently I was wrong to unload. BAC is now at 14.
Point is, this market rewards the good pickers and those who tune out just about everything in the media. It also rewards those who are disciplined and don't overpay at peak levels unless there is a catalyst. Example would be RIMM, which blasted through earnings estimates; recent numbers show the BlackBerry outsold the iPhone in Q1. RIMM won't come back down to 70 unless there's turmoil on Planet Earth, so it's up near 80 for some time to come. It's worth investing in on pullbacks.
Whatever the stock, though, a game plan is absolutely necessary. Sell on a slight dip and preserve your capital for lower buy-ins/better prices, or just wait it out like I should have with BAC. I did wait it out on BAC once. That took two weeks to recover, but it felt like two years.
I will continue to approach with a long-term outlook/hold on certain stocks (AAPL) and position trade on others. The bottom line, though, is whether I apply the game plan and get out of position trade losses ASAP. This past week was a personal record for break-even short-term trades, small-loss trades. That allowed me to be profitable for the week. Continuing to learn and focus on discipline: speed and commitment as a result of planning. A mix of break-evens, small losses and a few big gainers each week will equal profitability. I'm content to break even and that's a major step forward in my thinking.
See Trader Mike for some very solid reading.
Saturday, May 9, 2009
Monday, May 4, 2009
Oracle effect
Wells Fargo was told, supposedly, to clean up its balance sheet by the Fed. The stock rockets.
I don't get it, but who cares? If you own WFC, you're stoked. From 19 to 20 to 23 in a couple of days?
I don't get it, but who cares? If you own WFC, you're stoked. From 19 to 20 to 23 in a couple of days?
Bulls run wild
S&P 500 closed at 907.24, above that magical 903.25 threshold. Dow up 214, Nas up 44. Positive housing numbers fueled it, plus Obama's speech about eliminating loopholes for corporations that take jobs overseas.
I did a little of everything. Held core positions in LVS, AAPL (small but growing), debated whether to sell DRYS (I held) and F (I held). Traded some LVS for a gain twice. It was so hot, would've been better off letting it run. Closed at 9.50. Amazing. Felt like black jack dealers were dealing the stock all day. Best profits in awhile, but still cautious about losing paper profits.
Used some discipline, not chasing much at all today. Would love to catch LVS and DRYS on a pullback tomorrow. Market has to breathe sooner or later.
I did a little of everything. Held core positions in LVS, AAPL (small but growing), debated whether to sell DRYS (I held) and F (I held). Traded some LVS for a gain twice. It was so hot, would've been better off letting it run. Closed at 9.50. Amazing. Felt like black jack dealers were dealing the stock all day. Best profits in awhile, but still cautious about losing paper profits.
Used some discipline, not chasing much at all today. Would love to catch LVS and DRYS on a pullback tomorrow. Market has to breathe sooner or later.
Saturday, May 2, 2009
Looking at specs
Maybe Fortress (FIG) and KFN aren't really the typical penny stocks. Or were. I deferred (punted) after looking on Friday after hours. Should be a pullback on Monday after crazy gains Friday (28 and 30 percent), but they may be all right for quick trades at some point for those of us who missed the initial run.
FIG was on Fast Money, when Guy Adami mentioned it. Said it was interesting here, even after the run up. Karen Finerman mentioned/pimped her KFN. My love-hate relationship with financials isn't completely over, I guess.
FIG was on Fast Money, when Guy Adami mentioned it. Said it was interesting here, even after the run up. Karen Finerman mentioned/pimped her KFN. My love-hate relationship with financials isn't completely over, I guess.
Solars heat up, wind next?
Top solar stocks were up roughly 7 percent last week. Is it time for a run? Only if you think the Secretary of Energy is a catalyst. Stephen Chu announced a $93 million funding deal, but it's for wind energy. Alternative is alternative, in a sense. Worth watching. One of my favorites, STP, hit 15 last week. I had it at 13.
LVS at pivotal point
Las Vegas Sands. Debt. Gambling. Overage (buildout). However you describe it, LVS is true to its DNA. They risk big, win big, lose big. Quite awhile back, I took a look and found that LVS was interesting but not attractive. That was about $100 ago.
Now, even after rising from an all-time low of 1.38 to a recent intraday high of 9.05, it's a risk. Not everything has been resolved, though I tend to think LVS will bounce back strong. Just a hunch. It'll be a long, long time before the stock returns to 120. For now, resistance at 9 is a thick ceiling. If and when LVS busts through, it has to take out 16.81. Then it might be off to the races.
For anyone who bought below 5, you're sitting pretty, I think. I got in a little at 5.77, sold at 6.95, forgetting that Guy Adami had handicapped LVS to hit 8.00-8.50. Now that LVS is at 8.00, it could sell off again and get buyers a better price. Then again, it's sold off since hitting 9.05 on Thursday.
Never took a close look at WYNN or MGM. Why? I never stayed there. My only trip to Vegas, I was put in the Venetian (work-related conference). That stuck.
I'm long LVS just a bit and may add if it dips to 7ish. Holding for 10. Maybe 16.80. Possibly 50.
Now, even after rising from an all-time low of 1.38 to a recent intraday high of 9.05, it's a risk. Not everything has been resolved, though I tend to think LVS will bounce back strong. Just a hunch. It'll be a long, long time before the stock returns to 120. For now, resistance at 9 is a thick ceiling. If and when LVS busts through, it has to take out 16.81. Then it might be off to the races.
For anyone who bought below 5, you're sitting pretty, I think. I got in a little at 5.77, sold at 6.95, forgetting that Guy Adami had handicapped LVS to hit 8.00-8.50. Now that LVS is at 8.00, it could sell off again and get buyers a better price. Then again, it's sold off since hitting 9.05 on Thursday.
Never took a close look at WYNN or MGM. Why? I never stayed there. My only trip to Vegas, I was put in the Venetian (work-related conference). That stuck.
I'm long LVS just a bit and may add if it dips to 7ish. Holding for 10. Maybe 16.80. Possibly 50.
The Oracle still loving his WFC
He's consistent, if anything.
I gave up my WFC shares several weeks ago. Yeah, bought in around 14, sold around 14, and the very next morning, Wells Fargo surprised the world with an early earnings announcement that sent shares to 19 instantly.
Anyway, the reason I bought the shares in the first place was that Warren Buffett was very bullish on WFC, that it would handle its derivatives well and profit enormously from them. As of yesterday, he's saying the same thing, though his Berkshire Hathaway shares are running red recently.
I'm not about to get into WFC again, but the way Buffett hypes WFC and USB, it's hard not to think twice and do a little homework at the very least.
I gave up my WFC shares several weeks ago. Yeah, bought in around 14, sold around 14, and the very next morning, Wells Fargo surprised the world with an early earnings announcement that sent shares to 19 instantly.
Anyway, the reason I bought the shares in the first place was that Warren Buffett was very bullish on WFC, that it would handle its derivatives well and profit enormously from them. As of yesterday, he's saying the same thing, though his Berkshire Hathaway shares are running red recently.
I'm not about to get into WFC again, but the way Buffett hypes WFC and USB, it's hard not to think twice and do a little homework at the very least.
Friday, May 1, 2009
Cramer says Nasdaq CEO on next week
A caller from Oklahoma asked Cramer to find out what the hell happened with that shady situation on Tuesday when DNDN was screwed over. Cramer says it looks like someone tried to "paint the tape" and that he'd get the Nasdaq CEO on air to get some straight answers because "he's a straight guy."
Yeah right. Bernie Madoff's disciples are straight shooters. Really? I'm not optimistic that Nas will uncover the bullcrap.
Yeah right. Bernie Madoff's disciples are straight shooters. Really? I'm not optimistic that Nas will uncover the bullcrap.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Chrysler starts from scratch?
Some memorable moments with Chrysler.
Long ago, before my mom and stepfather split, he tooled around the streets of Honolulu in a muscle car -- a white Chrysler with a black top. Drove her crazy. He didn't care. It was 1970, gas was cheap and most American men loved to burn rubber in their U.S.-made burners.
In the mid-1990s, Chrysler fell on bad times and merged with Daimler, a company I'd never heard of. That day, I bought my first stock: C. Bought at 40 on the news and sold at 46, did it all over the phone. (I was a day or so away from trading online on my fancy new computer.) That same day, I bought C again, this time at 43, and sold again at 46. It was too easy, but it was real.
Today, Chrysler is officially part of Fiat, or is it the other way around? It's called a surgical bankruptcy and Obama blames the greedy of hedge funds and bondholders for this drastic measure.
Fiat? An old friend from the basketball days at Ala Wai Park, Eric, drove around in a red Fiat. Tiny little thing and he drove it like time was ticking down for every second he spent in that car. Maybe three of us could fit in it. I haven't seen many Fiats in Honolulu since. Talk about an instant speeding ticket waiting to happen. Red.
I haven't bought Chrysler stock in all these years. But I do like my Ford shares. While the rest of the market is schizo, F just moves up or down (mostly up lately) in an orderly way. Like a stately grandfather surrounded by a dozen of his most hyper grandkids. He's just smiling and having fun. Ford will survive as America's only automaker. Besides, they make the Mustang. Coolest American car out there.
Long ago, before my mom and stepfather split, he tooled around the streets of Honolulu in a muscle car -- a white Chrysler with a black top. Drove her crazy. He didn't care. It was 1970, gas was cheap and most American men loved to burn rubber in their U.S.-made burners.
In the mid-1990s, Chrysler fell on bad times and merged with Daimler, a company I'd never heard of. That day, I bought my first stock: C. Bought at 40 on the news and sold at 46, did it all over the phone. (I was a day or so away from trading online on my fancy new computer.) That same day, I bought C again, this time at 43, and sold again at 46. It was too easy, but it was real.
Today, Chrysler is officially part of Fiat, or is it the other way around? It's called a surgical bankruptcy and Obama blames the greedy of hedge funds and bondholders for this drastic measure.
Fiat? An old friend from the basketball days at Ala Wai Park, Eric, drove around in a red Fiat. Tiny little thing and he drove it like time was ticking down for every second he spent in that car. Maybe three of us could fit in it. I haven't seen many Fiats in Honolulu since. Talk about an instant speeding ticket waiting to happen. Red.
I haven't bought Chrysler stock in all these years. But I do like my Ford shares. While the rest of the market is schizo, F just moves up or down (mostly up lately) in an orderly way. Like a stately grandfather surrounded by a dozen of his most hyper grandkids. He's just smiling and having fun. Ford will survive as America's only automaker. Besides, they make the Mustang. Coolest American car out there.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
You snooze, you lose
Just back from a work assignment. Sunny Manoa, where the league chiefs meet every few months. On the way to lunch -- couldn't decide between cashew nut chicken (Bangkok Chef) or rib-eye steak (Ducky's), so i got both.
Somewhere between here and there, I realized why Jim Cramer was so weary of DNDN (though he supposedly is bullish now). Cramer used to work at Goldman Sachs, and he was a successful hedge-fund manager. He probably knows tons of those traders and managers, and the scheme that knocked 45 percent off DNDN's price yesterday (Tuesday) before the company's Provenge presentation at AUA was something that Cramer, and even Guy Adami and Pete Najarian of Fast Money know quite well.
Collusion. Backhanded dealing. Whatever it's called, they recognize the fingerprints. That's why they're all so, so quiet about something that rocked the market on national TV, so to speak. Cramer railed against naked shorting on Monday, calling out the SEC (again) and demanding that the uptick rule be revised in full (not watered down). I agree with him on that, but when these Wall Street guys go quiet on something like the manipulation of DNDN's stock, it feels a lot like a gag order. Or like being in a witness protection program. Nobody wants to spill the beans.
I was worn out last night, fell asleep on the couch and didn't wake up until about 4:30 a.m. -- an hour after the open. I have no idea how DNDN traded in premarket, but it opened at 27.02 and rose to 27.40 while I caught my Z's. Unfortunately, it was down to 25 by 4:30 and I watched. No stop-loss order. No way. But when I left to go work, it was down to 24ish and later closed at 22.94.
Should I have sold at 27? Yeah, and I might have done that if I'd gone to my bed and set the alarm for premarket. It would've made my late buys yesterday (at the 24 range) profitable.
Should I have sold at 25? In hindsight, yes, even if I plan to buy and hold DNDN shares. Sell at least half, look for more pullback to get shares cheap. Instead, I held on to most of the shares, hating the droppage and thinking about going back to sleep. Staring at the real-time quote is meaningless unless there's a purpose or plan to sell today.
I did sell a couple hundred shares at 23.95 (break even), which gave me a little cash to look at LVS, which popped big (with the rest of the market). Too bad I sold my LVS at 7 last week. I plan to build that position back up bit by bit. Same with ATVI, which I re-bought today after Goldman Sachs called it a buy. Unfortunately, I bought at 11.15, near the top, and it sold off to 10.73 by the close. GS targets ATVI for 14. Maybe GS had a lot of dead money in ATVI and used the new target to unload the shares.
Turns out, I should've bought LVS, which ran from 6.98 (yesterday) to 7.40 (open) to 7.72 (close). LVS flirted with 8 for awhile and is there in after hours. I'm aiming for a re-entry but not at 8.
More and more, I'm apt to leave shares alone, especially if they're my long-term favorites. I will not sell my AAPL shares again. Not selling F, which rose to 5.45 (5 percent).
It's a trader's market, like it or not, and there's no way to deny that selling DNDN at 27, then re-entering at 23 (or lower) is fiscally responsible and prudent. Of course, nobody knows for sure at 27 whether DNDN will pull back big. Good rule of thumb will be to sell 1/3 or 1/2 at the top (above 26) and expect to trade shares short term on pullbacks and spikes. It happens with all good and great stocks, including AAPL.
Holding DNDN is stressful, no question. Part of that is because I am committed to holding a core position long term. If I were trigger happy and simply trading all the shares all the time, it wouldn't be stressful at all. I have to measure that element -- stress -- as a factor in the equation. After all, I'm not a robot. And I really needed some sleep early this morning.
The other reason DNDN stresses me is the way the MMs and hedge funds manipulate it, as yesterday showed. In the back of my mind, I can't help wondering if I'll come home one morning to find the price leveled down to 5 bucks because of another sick scheme.
I still think DNDN survives the gauntlet of haters and arrives at 40, maybe 45, as analyst David Miller predicts. It won't happen this week, apparently (rim shot).
Somewhere between here and there, I realized why Jim Cramer was so weary of DNDN (though he supposedly is bullish now). Cramer used to work at Goldman Sachs, and he was a successful hedge-fund manager. He probably knows tons of those traders and managers, and the scheme that knocked 45 percent off DNDN's price yesterday (Tuesday) before the company's Provenge presentation at AUA was something that Cramer, and even Guy Adami and Pete Najarian of Fast Money know quite well.
Collusion. Backhanded dealing. Whatever it's called, they recognize the fingerprints. That's why they're all so, so quiet about something that rocked the market on national TV, so to speak. Cramer railed against naked shorting on Monday, calling out the SEC (again) and demanding that the uptick rule be revised in full (not watered down). I agree with him on that, but when these Wall Street guys go quiet on something like the manipulation of DNDN's stock, it feels a lot like a gag order. Or like being in a witness protection program. Nobody wants to spill the beans.
I was worn out last night, fell asleep on the couch and didn't wake up until about 4:30 a.m. -- an hour after the open. I have no idea how DNDN traded in premarket, but it opened at 27.02 and rose to 27.40 while I caught my Z's. Unfortunately, it was down to 25 by 4:30 and I watched. No stop-loss order. No way. But when I left to go work, it was down to 24ish and later closed at 22.94.
Should I have sold at 27? Yeah, and I might have done that if I'd gone to my bed and set the alarm for premarket. It would've made my late buys yesterday (at the 24 range) profitable.
Should I have sold at 25? In hindsight, yes, even if I plan to buy and hold DNDN shares. Sell at least half, look for more pullback to get shares cheap. Instead, I held on to most of the shares, hating the droppage and thinking about going back to sleep. Staring at the real-time quote is meaningless unless there's a purpose or plan to sell today.
I did sell a couple hundred shares at 23.95 (break even), which gave me a little cash to look at LVS, which popped big (with the rest of the market). Too bad I sold my LVS at 7 last week. I plan to build that position back up bit by bit. Same with ATVI, which I re-bought today after Goldman Sachs called it a buy. Unfortunately, I bought at 11.15, near the top, and it sold off to 10.73 by the close. GS targets ATVI for 14. Maybe GS had a lot of dead money in ATVI and used the new target to unload the shares.
Turns out, I should've bought LVS, which ran from 6.98 (yesterday) to 7.40 (open) to 7.72 (close). LVS flirted with 8 for awhile and is there in after hours. I'm aiming for a re-entry but not at 8.
More and more, I'm apt to leave shares alone, especially if they're my long-term favorites. I will not sell my AAPL shares again. Not selling F, which rose to 5.45 (5 percent).
It's a trader's market, like it or not, and there's no way to deny that selling DNDN at 27, then re-entering at 23 (or lower) is fiscally responsible and prudent. Of course, nobody knows for sure at 27 whether DNDN will pull back big. Good rule of thumb will be to sell 1/3 or 1/2 at the top (above 26) and expect to trade shares short term on pullbacks and spikes. It happens with all good and great stocks, including AAPL.
Holding DNDN is stressful, no question. Part of that is because I am committed to holding a core position long term. If I were trigger happy and simply trading all the shares all the time, it wouldn't be stressful at all. I have to measure that element -- stress -- as a factor in the equation. After all, I'm not a robot. And I really needed some sleep early this morning.
The other reason DNDN stresses me is the way the MMs and hedge funds manipulate it, as yesterday showed. In the back of my mind, I can't help wondering if I'll come home one morning to find the price leveled down to 5 bucks because of another sick scheme.
I still think DNDN survives the gauntlet of haters and arrives at 40, maybe 45, as analyst David Miller predicts. It won't happen this week, apparently (rim shot).
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Dendreon: Breakthrough and more craziness
Fool me once, shame on you.
Fool me twice, shame on me.
That echoed in my mind when, wouldn't you know it, bizarre behavior surrounded DNDN this morning (HST). The stock plunged, as I considered selling my shares, from 24 to 12 literally in 5 seconds. Might have been 3 ticks. I panicked and hit the sell button, and then the stock completely froze -- halted by NASDAQ. Could've been for the Dendreon news conference or because of the illegitimate move that turned caused the 45-percent drop.
As of this minute, an hour later, that "glitch" (some think it was an orchestrated bear/short raid) is being investigated by NASDAQ. Someone might be in trouble ...
It was the worst and the best, sorta, in a matter of minutes. Because my sell order was stuck in the "halt", I called my broker and eventually they found my order and cancelled it for me. Had they not, it would've executed on the open -- probably in after hours (post-conference) or in the morning. Who knows what the price would be? I didn't want to let the panic sell leave me with a huge loss ESPECIALLY BECAUSE DENDREON ANNOUNCED TREMENDOUS NEWS about its prostate cancer immunotherapy treatment. It's a major medical breakthrough years in the making.
My heart broke two years ago when the FDA rejected the treatment, but this time around, with more than 500 subjects responding positively to Provenge -- no deaths -- and longer survival rates, this is a winner. And even if the corrupt FDA shoots it down again, I'm holding on to these shares.
If it pops to 25, 30 or higher, I'll trade half and use the other half as a core position. This is, even after all these years of struggle, a giant in the making. Mitch Gold finally done it!
Still an hour or so left in the session, but I'm exhausted. Heading out the the Leeward Coast to cover a tournament. Too bad CNBC doesn't have a radio channel. No Bloomberg Radio here.
Fool me twice, shame on me.
That echoed in my mind when, wouldn't you know it, bizarre behavior surrounded DNDN this morning (HST). The stock plunged, as I considered selling my shares, from 24 to 12 literally in 5 seconds. Might have been 3 ticks. I panicked and hit the sell button, and then the stock completely froze -- halted by NASDAQ. Could've been for the Dendreon news conference or because of the illegitimate move that turned caused the 45-percent drop.
As of this minute, an hour later, that "glitch" (some think it was an orchestrated bear/short raid) is being investigated by NASDAQ. Someone might be in trouble ...
It was the worst and the best, sorta, in a matter of minutes. Because my sell order was stuck in the "halt", I called my broker and eventually they found my order and cancelled it for me. Had they not, it would've executed on the open -- probably in after hours (post-conference) or in the morning. Who knows what the price would be? I didn't want to let the panic sell leave me with a huge loss ESPECIALLY BECAUSE DENDREON ANNOUNCED TREMENDOUS NEWS about its prostate cancer immunotherapy treatment. It's a major medical breakthrough years in the making.
My heart broke two years ago when the FDA rejected the treatment, but this time around, with more than 500 subjects responding positively to Provenge -- no deaths -- and longer survival rates, this is a winner. And even if the corrupt FDA shoots it down again, I'm holding on to these shares.
If it pops to 25, 30 or higher, I'll trade half and use the other half as a core position. This is, even after all these years of struggle, a giant in the making. Mitch Gold finally done it!
Still an hour or so left in the session, but I'm exhausted. Heading out the the Leeward Coast to cover a tournament. Too bad CNBC doesn't have a radio channel. No Bloomberg Radio here.
Monday, April 27, 2009
Wish List
For core holdings:
AAPL (tech/retail/electronics)
AMZN (retail)
ATVI (gaming)
AXP (credit card)
BIDU (China/search/advertising)
F (possibly the lone US automaker by 2010)
FLS (infrastructure)
GOOG (search/advertising)
GS (financial)
LVS (casino)
MCD (dining/international)
NTES (China/gaming)
AAPL (tech/retail/electronics)
AMZN (retail)
ATVI (gaming)
AXP (credit card)
BIDU (China/search/advertising)
F (possibly the lone US automaker by 2010)
FLS (infrastructure)
GOOG (search/advertising)
GS (financial)
LVS (casino)
MCD (dining/international)
NTES (China/gaming)
Not so crazy now
It wasn't very long ago when I was willing to go fairly large on a daytrade and ride a skeptical, paranoid market with a sturdy surfboard known as FAZ. I mean, it was high risk, high reward and I made some dollars -- then gave most of it back being inexperienced with the incredible speed that it can change direction.
Today, I just watched as FAZ moved now and then. The sentiment in the market wasn't totally fearful, so it's much tougher to gauge the direction on an uber-short ETF like that. The market was mostly sideways today. So instead of trying to dip in and out in a tough environment, I put small orders in for some stocks I like both short and long term: AAPL, ATVI, DNDN and F. Of the three, DNDN is a real crapshoot and I will probably bail out before they announce the precise results of Provenge testing after the bell tomorrow.
BAC got to 9.29 in the morning, but I didn't sell (break even would be 9.35) so I'm holding that bag. Chief exec Ken Lewis could be canned any day now, which might kick start the stock. I don't see it as a long-term hold either way.
AAPL is money. Golden. I'll keep adding little by little for a core holding. ATVI, Activision Blizzard, is responsible for the cultish, zombie-like behavior of gamers everywhere, including my nephew, who is addicted to Call of Duty 4 online. It has powers we can only imagine. The stock has been pinned in the 10 range for awhile. Could be time for a run.
Today, I just watched as FAZ moved now and then. The sentiment in the market wasn't totally fearful, so it's much tougher to gauge the direction on an uber-short ETF like that. The market was mostly sideways today. So instead of trying to dip in and out in a tough environment, I put small orders in for some stocks I like both short and long term: AAPL, ATVI, DNDN and F. Of the three, DNDN is a real crapshoot and I will probably bail out before they announce the precise results of Provenge testing after the bell tomorrow.
BAC got to 9.29 in the morning, but I didn't sell (break even would be 9.35) so I'm holding that bag. Chief exec Ken Lewis could be canned any day now, which might kick start the stock. I don't see it as a long-term hold either way.
AAPL is money. Golden. I'll keep adding little by little for a core holding. ATVI, Activision Blizzard, is responsible for the cultish, zombie-like behavior of gamers everywhere, including my nephew, who is addicted to Call of Duty 4 online. It has powers we can only imagine. The stock has been pinned in the 10 range for awhile. Could be time for a run.
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Quants? Arh?
The way program trading works is ... I don't know. Do I work for the Lime Group?
My search for the roots of quant program trading, or whatever people like to call it, began today. I'm interested because the stock market has spiked up enormously in the final minutes of six of the last eight sessions. It's all because of program trading. The monster titan of such things is Lime Group and here's a story that touches on what Lime is about. Quite interesting and varied, and somehow I'm not surprised that the founder has a passion for improving his city. In fact, the story notes that he's a friend of Enrique Penalosa, the former mayor of Bogota who was featured on E2, one of my favorite TV programs.
Anyway, I may hate it when program trading causes one of my stocks to freefall, and I may love it when program trading causes one of my stocks to spike up. It is what it is and I want to know more about it. Program trading was just 5 percent of the NASDAQ volume a decade ago. Now it is 40 percent. That cannot be ignored.
My search for the roots of quant program trading, or whatever people like to call it, began today. I'm interested because the stock market has spiked up enormously in the final minutes of six of the last eight sessions. It's all because of program trading. The monster titan of such things is Lime Group and here's a story that touches on what Lime is about. Quite interesting and varied, and somehow I'm not surprised that the founder has a passion for improving his city. In fact, the story notes that he's a friend of Enrique Penalosa, the former mayor of Bogota who was featured on E2, one of my favorite TV programs.
Anyway, I may hate it when program trading causes one of my stocks to freefall, and I may love it when program trading causes one of my stocks to spike up. It is what it is and I want to know more about it. Program trading was just 5 percent of the NASDAQ volume a decade ago. Now it is 40 percent. That cannot be ignored.
From a DVD to your hard drive?
Sounds illegal, right? Might not be soon.
Real Networks has a device -- taken off the market soon after distribution -- that can supposedly transfer DVD data to your computer. Amazing. If the media giants win their lawsuit, though, RNWK will remain a 2-dollar stock.
More details here.
Real Networks has a device -- taken off the market soon after distribution -- that can supposedly transfer DVD data to your computer. Amazing. If the media giants win their lawsuit, though, RNWK will remain a 2-dollar stock.
More details here.
You like your Netflix?
DVDs delivered to your front door, practically, but downloads to your computer?
When the CEO of Netflix was on 60 Minutes a couple of years ago, I was impressed. NFLX seemed it would dominate its space for a long time, even with Blockbuster and every other movie and game rental company.
There's been so much about NFLX in the news lately. News, hype, drivel, froth. Whipped cream in the world of media downloads/streaming channels, and what a hugely insane world that is. Think Napster. Making real money. So how can NFLX not been a buy? Could it still be a buy?
Frankly, as I dig a little, I will not expect to buy any NFLX. The two or three weeks after earnings aren't always the best time to chisel into a stock as swing traders cash in and look for the next hot one. Then again, if mutual funds start pouring back into the market, they could take a lot of stocks skyward just on sheer volume.
Here's a starting point, perhaps. Should Netflix worry about Comcast? I dunno. Read the link.
When the CEO of Netflix was on 60 Minutes a couple of years ago, I was impressed. NFLX seemed it would dominate its space for a long time, even with Blockbuster and every other movie and game rental company.
There's been so much about NFLX in the news lately. News, hype, drivel, froth. Whipped cream in the world of media downloads/streaming channels, and what a hugely insane world that is. Think Napster. Making real money. So how can NFLX not been a buy? Could it still be a buy?
Frankly, as I dig a little, I will not expect to buy any NFLX. The two or three weeks after earnings aren't always the best time to chisel into a stock as swing traders cash in and look for the next hot one. Then again, if mutual funds start pouring back into the market, they could take a lot of stocks skyward just on sheer volume.
Here's a starting point, perhaps. Should Netflix worry about Comcast? I dunno. Read the link.
Friday, April 24, 2009
Ford Friday
I got stopped out of my F shares, much to my disappointment. I probably set the stop-loss price too close and I'm just hoping I can get shares on Monday at a similar price (5.18-5.24). Why Ford? It's about value. It's about many things, and they're mostly favorable and similar in some ways to LVS -- except that Ford may have more upside.
Aloha Friday
If you missed it, here are a couple of pertinent pieces written today. One, by the blatantly honest Jeff Macke, takes a look at Las Vegas Sands, which closed the week at 7.44. That gives me a quite voluptuous paper profit so far. Just wish I'd had more cash on Wednesday when I got a few shares.
The other piece is by Ken McCullough, whom I had never heard of, but his perspective is interesting. It's about groupthink and Cramer and Kass and whether the retail investor needs a shepherd to read the market's fickle ways.
As for my trading, I was quite aesthetic yesterday, quite as a monk in a cave. Watching but quiet. Today was the opposite. With Fed stress-test news out, the financials were all over, up and down and I made back all that I'd lost (on paper) with my STUPID, overly expensive buys of BAC and FAS early in the week. Then my stop-loss orders kicked in and left me at break-even instead of a tidy profit, leaving me to doubt the process. Why?
Both stocks had rallied huge and were a good 25 to 30 cents above my entry points -- and stop-loss prices -- when the market makers decided to alter the market. They dove all the way down and cleared out my sell orders, and probably thousands of others, before taking the price back up from whence they came.
Dirty m*******f*****kers.
Now I know better. When my stocks have exploded and I'm tracking them closely -- I actually moved up my limit sell orders twice during today's rally before switching to trailing stops -- it's an absolute must to make the stops real tight, as close as possible to the current price. Don't get me wrong: I'm glad and thankful as heck that I'm not thousands of dollars underwater anymore. But tight stops would've netted me a decent profit after all that struggle.
Anyway, I netted positive for the day after that horrendous Monday. Tweaking along the way, that's what has to be done.
The other piece is by Ken McCullough, whom I had never heard of, but his perspective is interesting. It's about groupthink and Cramer and Kass and whether the retail investor needs a shepherd to read the market's fickle ways.
As for my trading, I was quite aesthetic yesterday, quite as a monk in a cave. Watching but quiet. Today was the opposite. With Fed stress-test news out, the financials were all over, up and down and I made back all that I'd lost (on paper) with my STUPID, overly expensive buys of BAC and FAS early in the week. Then my stop-loss orders kicked in and left me at break-even instead of a tidy profit, leaving me to doubt the process. Why?
Both stocks had rallied huge and were a good 25 to 30 cents above my entry points -- and stop-loss prices -- when the market makers decided to alter the market. They dove all the way down and cleared out my sell orders, and probably thousands of others, before taking the price back up from whence they came.
Dirty m*******f*****kers.
Now I know better. When my stocks have exploded and I'm tracking them closely -- I actually moved up my limit sell orders twice during today's rally before switching to trailing stops -- it's an absolute must to make the stops real tight, as close as possible to the current price. Don't get me wrong: I'm glad and thankful as heck that I'm not thousands of dollars underwater anymore. But tight stops would've netted me a decent profit after all that struggle.
Anyway, I netted positive for the day after that horrendous Monday. Tweaking along the way, that's what has to be done.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Tying down loose ends
It's a must. Two of the past three days have been the biggest trading losses for me in the past month. Otherwise, most trades have been wins. One huge reason was the 6-week bull run from the market's bottoms. Another reason was selectivity, something I had more of before this week.
The biggest reason, though, is that I didn't use stop-loss sell orders on trades for BAC and FAS. That takes consistency and discipline. I used them earlier in the day (losses on FAZ), but simply acted the dunderhead later. Chances are that the two stocks will swing back up and I'll break even. Nothing is guaranteed, though. That's why trailing stops are key.
Also added a few LVS shares at 5.77 in after hours yesterday. I missed a chance to get them on Tuesday at 5.07 in AH after learning about some positive news. Trading above 6 in premarket today. Adami says it should be above 8.50. We'll see.
Stress test results for financials tomorrow. Stress for shareholders, too. In a perfect world, I'll be out of financials by then.
The biggest reason, though, is that I didn't use stop-loss sell orders on trades for BAC and FAS. That takes consistency and discipline. I used them earlier in the day (losses on FAZ), but simply acted the dunderhead later. Chances are that the two stocks will swing back up and I'll break even. Nothing is guaranteed, though. That's why trailing stops are key.
Also added a few LVS shares at 5.77 in after hours yesterday. I missed a chance to get them on Tuesday at 5.07 in AH after learning about some positive news. Trading above 6 in premarket today. Adami says it should be above 8.50. We'll see.
Stress test results for financials tomorrow. Stress for shareholders, too. In a perfect world, I'll be out of financials by then.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Flat
Stopped out of C at 3.19. Oh well. Can't force it.
Also got into FAZ at 10.45 and was stopped out at 10.38. This market doesn't know which direction it wants to go. I think traders are just worn out by everthing.
Also got into FAZ at 10.45 and was stopped out at 10.38. This market doesn't know which direction it wants to go. I think traders are just worn out by everthing.
C breeze
Thought I'd stay out until near the close, but I'm back in at 3.23.
C leveled off in the 3.20 range, where I sold it (smart move to avoid downside risk), then showed a decent head-and-shoulders on the chart, decent move on MACD. I do want this in my portfolio as long as the financial environment is leaning positive. But I also have a trailing stop-loss sell (2 percent) at 3.18 just in case.
If C can move to 3.28 or 3.33, I might take the nickel or dime profit.
He who fight and run away
Live to fight another day
- Bob Nesta Marley
C leveled off in the 3.20 range, where I sold it (smart move to avoid downside risk), then showed a decent head-and-shoulders on the chart, decent move on MACD. I do want this in my portfolio as long as the financial environment is leaning positive. But I also have a trailing stop-loss sell (2 percent) at 3.18 just in case.
If C can move to 3.28 or 3.33, I might take the nickel or dime profit.
He who fight and run away
Live to fight another day
- Bob Nesta Marley
Stop in the name of love
Stop-loss sell order kicked in on my FAS at 7.34 and C at 3.20.
Profit of 15 cents/share. Nice little profit for a two-hour daytrade. Probably should've sold near the high of 7.54.
C was a quick profit of 23 cents and 5 cents. High was 3.28. Never had two stop-loss sells happen in a 5-minute period before. Pretty cool. A lot more orderly, too.
Profit of 15 cents/share. Nice little profit for a two-hour daytrade. Probably should've sold near the high of 7.54.
C was a quick profit of 23 cents and 5 cents. High was 3.28. Never had two stop-loss sells happen in a 5-minute period before. Pretty cool. A lot more orderly, too.
In/out FAZ, In C
Tried to play FAZ during Geithner's talk with Congress, but got stopped out at 12.02 with a 3-percent loss.
Got in, however, Citigroup at 2.96 and 3.15. Market is in the green and financials are bouncing back. C is battling at 3.15.
Got in, however, Citigroup at 2.96 and 3.15. Market is in the green and financials are bouncing back. C is battling at 3.15.
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