Friday, July 6, 2012

Dollar dollar bill y'all

The weekend is upon us after a strange week thanks to the 4th of July being on a Wednesday. AAPL roared higher, up to 614 yesterday, but is now at 603+ as the market pulls back. A lot of that is due to the LIBOR scandal, another bankster scam that has every stock on my Debt Spiral Dance list red. Deutsche Bank is under investigation, down 5.3% to 33.55 and near its low of the day. Soc Gen (SCGLY) is down 5.9%. It's going to be industry wide and FAZ is ripping higher for a second day in a row.

The US banksters aren't being hit as hard, but it's still a bloody mess: BAC -2.1%, C -2.4%, JPM -1.5%, MS -2.4%. The dollar (UUP) and euro ultra short (EUO) march higher, as does TVIX. Oddly, gold and silver are being bludgeoned along with financials. Most stocks are moving on miniscule volume today. Buyers have run from the market like it's a house on fire.

Taking precaution yesterday turned out to be good given that my sleeping hours overlap with the market. Holding AAPL from 95 or whatever would be different, but since I didn't do that, playing with AAPL at 600+ is turbulent to say the least. With the Dow (-161), Nasdaq (-49) and S&P (-16) down 1.2% to 1.9%, it's not the time to try and be a hero.

Thursday, July 5, 2012

No messing with Uncle Sam (updated)

Dollar is powering higher this morning, taking most stocks lower. AAPL was somewhat of an exception, off its premarket high (602.98). The skittish mood was enough to bump me out at 601.50 for a small profit (+8.60 or so). AAPL could hold this morning's gain, but after running the past few sessions, it's due for a minor drop.

Economy is doing a little better with this morning's strong payroll number, strong meaning better than expected. That's part of the reason why the QE bulls are tentative for the time being. I'll be getting some sleep.

Update 9:40 am HST: AAPL ran hot in the face of head winds in the market. While the Dow (-34) and Nasdaq (-3) were ragged, AAPL rose to 614+ as I slept. Now at 611.75. In hindsight, holding my position with a stop-loss at 600 or 599 would have done well. But I did sleep well.

Apple Inc earnings are on July 16. Coupled with the news late last week about the 7-inch iPad, the stock is doing its usual pre-earnings explosion. AAPL defies the market; FAZ is up 2.7%. TVIX up 2.2%. UUP (US dollar) up 1.3%. EUO up 3.5%.

Tuesday, July 3, 2012

Apple crunch?

Weird mix of good and bad news for AAPL as the market was generally flat in a low-volume, pre-holiday, half-day session. I got back in AAPL yesterday afterhours at slightly below 593. Shares hit 600 today and closed above 599. I'm holding the position over the holiday.

Whatever weirdness came out on AAPL, this just came out several minutes ago: a 7-inch iPad will be (reportedly) released this year. Good news? I own no iPad, no iPhone, not even an iPod. But this sounds good for AAPL longs.

Business Insider (via Bloomberg): Apple will launch smaller, cheaper iPad this year (July 3)

Monday, July 2, 2012

Apple turnover

In AAPL on Friday at 583.95. Out today at 591.50.

Woke up a few minutes ago to find the market generally flat on lower volume. AAPL has lower volume, too, but was up above 593 in the first half of the session. I almost forgot about that position. That's how deep into summer mode I am. But I locked in a decent gain, not interested in re-entering. The only possibility would be a catalyst late in the day, and AAPL would see another jolt of volume as it did early in the session.

Thursday, June 14, 2012

Thursday cinema & library

We're on the verge of some potentially titanic movements in the next few days. Sit tight and avoid the turbulence, or at least take a barf bag with you. Better yet, get on your bike and enjoy a fine summer evening.

Tyler Durden: Positioning for weekend: BofA's risk cheat sheet (June 15)
TraderFlorida (video): Thursday wrap (June 14)
streetmoney21 (video): Currency markets prepare for total chaos on Monday (June 14)
Le Fly: Come get it (June 14)
Charles Biderman: How to benefit from global financial mess (June 14)
Street Insider: Unusual mid-day movers (NBG) (June 14)
Barron's: Apple potential 'game changer' in mobile payments (June 13)
Reggie Middleton: As predicted last year, French and Greeks in race (June 13)

Titanic or Titillating Thursday

2:24 am (Hawaii) The Spanish 10-year is at 7%. How fricken outlandish is that? No nation can survive long with something like that. It's just ... implausible. No country was built to survive something like that. Yet there it is. Infuckingcredible.

But the world is not coming to an end. If there's one good thing about the internet, it's this: the masses share everything, good and bad ideas, at warp speed. So long as there is power, ideas and solutions spread at a rate we as a species have never seen before. So it's impossible to measure that component and believe with all certainty that we're up shit creek for good.

It just feels like it sometimes.

Here's what amuses and/or infotains this morning.

Business Insider: Initial unemployment claims MISS BIG (June 14)
Joe Weisenthal: I just got a ride to my hotel in Athens and BOY was it depressing (June 14)
Business Insider: Holy Crap: Spanish 10-year yield hit 7.0% (June 14)

Monday, June 11, 2012

No wind behind Spanish sails (updated)

7:41 am (Hawaii) The Spanish bailout had Dow futures +140 at one point last night. My guess was that AAPL would hit 590 today. So I got up a little while ago, turned on the TV to see the Dow down 30 points. Stunning. No +100 or +200 day?

AAPL nearly hit 590, hitting 588.50 intraday, but is now back at 581+, barely positive even though its annual developers conference has begun. (They've released new and improved MacAir.) The bailout lasted for the blink of an eye. FAZ, which gapped down nearly a dollar to 25.00 at the open, is now at 26.56. I'm still all cash and probably will leave this mess alone. But it's telling how any bailout is having almost no effect on the overall market.

Update 10:16 am Took a shot at FAZ at 26.92, ran to 27.04 and fell. Got out at 26.80 for a teeny loss. Got back in at 27.09. (Missed a buy at 26.93 on the way back up.) Sold at 27.34 before the closing bell. Net positive for the day, basically break even. Had I held from 26.92, would've been a small, but decent paper profit. The after-hours puppeteers have FAZ at 27.39.

Almost impossible to hold anything overnight unless you have a major cushion, like say AAPL since 95. But even AAPL took a couple of roundhouse blasts to the face, falling to 571+ before the bell after being up nicely early in the day. Dow -142 (-1.1%), Nas -48 (-1.7%), S&P -16 (-1.3%). Surely another bailout coming this week, likely for Italy, which means another gap higher for the indices. I'd rather wait for the pop and fade that. Or just watch from the top row with my binoculars.