Titilating Thursday

10:20 am (Hawaii) Quite a stimulating session for bulls. I was asleep, away in Dreamland. Must've been good. I don't remember a thing, but my countenance is even. Meanwhile, the indices finished positive. The Nas up for an eighth day in a row.

I stayed out after watching the open. I missed this run up and I didn't want to catch the inevitable fall down. As expected, hotties XG and EXK made pit stops today after major moves higher. XG down 0.8% to 14.37 (afterhours) and EXK down 0.5% to 9.66.

More numbers came out today, more positive for the market, but really, it's all momentum based on the assumption that the debt ceiling will be raised and that the Eurozone has a better grip on its debt crisis for now. It's like this: FAS and FAZ are at extremes from one day to the next, regardless of how the indices are doing. Logically, FAZ should be crushing, but there's JPM (+1.9%), Citi (+1.7%), BAC (+1.7%), STD (+1.2%), GS (+0.9%) and so on. All these banksters eventually will run out of government handouts. Just a matter of when the plug gets pulled and they start gagging on their own poison. I don't think the big boys will die. They'll just languish until the market corrects itself without the life support provided by the doomed fractional reserve system.

My Metals list is 71% green, but the depth of huge gainers has been reduced. "Only" 18 issues gained at least 1.5%. FAS and UCO are in this list as convenient indicators for the broader view, but both were up more than 4% today. REE (+3.8%), PALL (+2.8%), MCP (+2.5%), CU (+2.4) were very strong for the rare earths and non-gold, non-silver traders. Copper's recent run hasBrother Turd pointing to a possible repeat of its run of last year.

You've probably been wondering about that, too. With Greece and the global debt crises, so much is similar to last year's market behavior: Lackluster in the spring, total launching pad in July and rocket ship action to the end of the year. Is that going to happen again in 2011? If they kick the proverbial can down the road again, it's clear the big money would like this to be so. Self-fulfilling prophecy and all that.

But I would add this: volume is sinking as this hot streak of the past week-plus continues. Here's a look at today's big winners on my Metals list.

FAS - volume up today compared to yesterday

UCO - volume way up, nearly double

REE - volume lower

PALL - volume lower

MCP - volume lower

CU - volume higher

AGQ - volume lower

PSLV - volume similar

AVL - volume lower

JJC - volume lower

COPX - volume HUGE

GG - volume higher

XME - volume lower

PLTM - volume higher

PGM - volume lower

AG - volume lower

DBB - volume similar

GOLD - volume higher

AGOL - volume higher

PPLT - volume HUGE

SLV - volume lower

WITE - volume lower

DBS - volume lower

Those are the metals on my list that were up more than 1%. For the most part, volume was lower today going into tomorrow's key report. It's been a quiet week, news wise, in Europe, and last week's end-of-month window dressing has carried over.

My Regular watch list is 78% green with PSUN, yes that PSUN (occasionally loved by Le Fly) up 10.2% today. There's better depth here than in my Metals list.

PSUN - volume HUGE

WNR - volume up big

VCLK - volume up

VLO - volume up HUGE

FCX - volume up HUGE

LVS - volume up HUGE

MNW - volume up

SWY - volume lower

RLOC - volume lower

CLNE - volume lower

GOOG - volume higher

ENY - volume similar

USO - volume higher

AMRN - volume higher

APC - volume similar

OWW - volume lower

FORM - volume higher

MSFT - volume higher.

All of these are stocks that gained at least 2% with the exception of MSFT (+1.8%). AAPL (+1.6%) moved up to 357 on lower volume. AMZN up 1.5% on higher volume. BIDU up 0.8% on similar volume. NFLX up 0.8% on lower volume.

It's good to be aware of the surroundings. Not everyone had the foresight to park money in NFLX, PCLN and AAPL below 50 and forget about it for a few years.

Rare earth Thursday

5:23 am (Hawaii) This week's bull run continues. DJ up 142 points (+1.1%) to 12,404. Nas up 30 points (+1.1%) to 2,771. S&P up 12.25 points (+0.9%) to 1,319. Metals list is 47% green, 48% red, 5% neutral. Rare earths are tearing higher. MCP (+6.6) is up $3.76 to 60.78. It was at 52 last week, dipping on news of major insider sales. REE is up 6.1% to 11.14. AVL is higher by 5.8% to 6.89.

The rest of the metals are up fractionally, none more than 1.5% with a few exceptions like CU, COPX, SVM, XME.

XG (+1.3%) and GDXJ (+1.2%) have decent gains so far. It smells like the run is petering out.

My Regular watch list is 68% green, 32% red. Ford (+3.5%), TSO (+3.2%) and RLOC (+2.7%) are among the leaders. Is this the end of the end-of-month window dressing? Tomorrow is July 1, so we'll find out soon enough. Today's supposed to mark the end of QE2, but all signs point to almost no fear of a prolonged hiatus until QE3. It appears improbable, even impossible, for the Fed to rule out the option of printing more dollars. There is no tangible alternative on the table, nor the political will to truly explore a cure for the ailing system.

Is the American public willing to take the medicine necessary? Are the powers that be willing to go down so we can transition to a new system? Of course not, not when it means losing billions of dollars. But the lie can't last forever.

Update 5:43 am (Hawaii) Financials are up across the board. SCGLY (+3.1%), NBG (+2.9%), BBVA (+2.7%), STD (+2.4%), DB (+1.6%) showing strength across the Eurozone. JPM, C, GS up fractionally. BAC down 1.2% on bad news yesterday. IRE down 1.8%. Finnies basically leading the run this week.

Raquel Welch

This brawl ain't over

12:00 pm (Hawaii) Yesterday's moves were almost entirely on sharply lower volume. Today?

AGQ: Tue 1.7 million shares, Wed 1.6 mil

DGP: Tue 688k, Wed 997k

EDZ: Tue 2.3 mil, Wed 2.3 mil

FAZ: Tue 13.0 mil, Wed 13.3 mil

GLD: Tue 10.9 mil, Wed 13.3 mil

GPL: Tue 2.1 mil, Wed 3.3 mil

SCO: Tue 1.4 mil, Wed 2.3 mil

SLV: Tue 30 mil, Wed 40 mil

And so on. I'm not a fan of SLV or GPL (due for a pullback after a massive run). But AGQ doesn't lie. It was up on almost even volume. Gold plays, even GLD, up on significant increased volume.

FAZ is perplexing at times, but it's neither bearish or bullish after today's 6% gain. I'm tempted to open a small position but I'm leaning toward waiting overnight. Same with SCO, though for different reasons. SCO and UCO are just wickedly flip-floppy. Obama wanted lower gas prices and he's getting it. But crude oil could bounce back on any craziness in the ME. Depends on how you feel about the presence of US Navy in the region; does it quell resistance and lead to US takeover of Iraqi/etc oil fields? Or does it lead to conflict?

Here are the biggest losers off my Metals/etc list:

UCO 43.25, -7.4%, Tue 2.5 mil, Wed 3.9 mil

FAS 22.54, -6.6%, Tue 23.9 mil, Wed 27.5 mil

CU 38.58, -4.9%, Tue 75k, Wed 4.9 mil

COPX 17.48, -3.8%, Tue 46k, Wed 236k

AG 16.88, -2.6%, Tue 1.1 mil, Wed 1.1 mil

Miners make up a big chunk of today's losers. But note how copper got destroyed (CU, COPX). Is this a blow-off top? Or is all this exiting volume an indication that the market will be dead money for some time. I think it's the latter. Plenty of people went on vacation, and a lot of the leftover traders got out today. AAPL at 325-326 ... that's dead money for awhile. 

This is looking like a knock-down, drag-out alley fight that could go on for days or weeks. Months maybe. But the scent of positive economic numbers will give us a quick dead-cat bounce opportunity here and there.

Content to sit in mostly cash and let it all shake out. Acquire more physical metal bit by bit.

Bad credit, bad hair and Europe?

10:17 am (Hawaii) So what does this half-assed solution to the Greek debt crisis mean? How did it spur the indices higher through the closing bell? Was it all just AAPL?

How much of it was end-of-month window dressing? How many of those same fund bosses sell their AAPL and other assorted non-essentials tomorrow before the peon premarket?

A meltdown in Greece, then Portugal, then Spain, France, UK ... wouldn't all of this have left gold and silver alone to run higher and higher? Are we really that much closer to the stack-your-cans-of-sardines-and-Spam days?

One thing is clear. The daily charts show many, many silver plays with fairly bullish candlestick charts. I don't think it's an all-clear that silver shoots up vertically from here, but it's something to watch.

Big Apple

A major gap open and strong finish on increased volume. Under normal conditions, what's not to like, right? But even AAPL can't withstand the unnatural currents of the global market.

Crude activity

What's good for crude oil is good for the market? Not necessarily, but Sensei Turd Ferguson has been forecasting a crude move to the upside.

Silver hammers

AGQ, AG, EXK, SLV all have hammer candles that are somewhat bullish. It's not enough for me to jump in head first, so I'm still 90% cash. But it's getting attractive.

In an afternoon update, Turd pointed to 37.50 as an area of "stout support", with a re-test of 39.50 soon. I suppose I'm selfish wanting prices below 35 to buy physical.

Gold isn't looking as interesting, which is expected after last week's move (and the sputter action of silver). I don't know what to make of XG's candle today except that it finished with some momentum. An oddity.

The gold junior miners ETF looks nice, but GLD looks tired. It might be time for some consolidation. I'm still positive on gold in general, still holding a small piece of DGP, which also looks tired here.

Rare earths are foreign to me, but MCP looks full of vigor here.

If you look hard enough, the palladium ETF chart looks a little bit like XG. Bullish, but something's not quite right.

Copper ETF looks positive, but is all the news out of China already baked in? Copper was a good play a week ago when China's growth turned up strong, but this is a tightrope here. Long term, I wouldn't fear this trade, but I can't hold anything that long in this market.

I'm sticking to my gut for now and staying mostly out. AAPL will be interesting if it holds its ground, but much of that depends on the chaos in the Euro zone and, well, just about everywhere else.

SGS is skeptical about PMs and noted earlier that if gold can't keep up, silver will be ravaged by the puppet masters.

A pullback in PMs would be par for the course. Gold, in particular, tends to pull back on any gains during the summer. It has the last two summers. I'd look to add more physical on discount prices as volume wanes and the lulls take over.