Frenchy Friday (update 10:27 am)

Why 'Frenchy'? Ohhhh ... no special reason. Nothing like, well, once the Spain headache passes, wait 'til ya see how messed up ol' Pierre and his ladies are there in Paris (pronounced Paree, of course). Or that 'French Kiss Friday' would've been far more interesting, disturbing and ... visual.

No, 30 minutes before the opening bell, I feel sprightly, whatever that means. Not quite tingly. But certainly fortunate and blessed. I just walked out a motion picture theater after hearing big booming sounds in stereo, watching a fantastical (no pun intended) film for 2 1/2 hours. Yes, "The Avengers" was all that and a bag of popcorn, literally. Thumbs way up.

But while the film entertained a packed theater at 2 am, the market was open (premarket) and the latest economic (jobs) report was unleashed. I could've been home keeping watch on my precious portfolio. But I didn't. I went to see a flick. It was worth it.

I've kept GSVC for a few days now, willing to ride it out through the coming Facebook bullet train tour of America. I also re-entered ZAGG, which isn't a bad idea considering the earnings report was awesome and the company unabashedly forecast superbness in the coming quarter with the expansion of sales to Wal-Mart shelves, and to much of Planet Earth.

There currently is no argument against Zagg products nor the Apple gems that Zagg products accentuate (and protect). Oh, there will be issues in coming months and years for the company, no different from any other. But this crew has it down pat for now. I don't think in terms of black or white, perfect or shitty anymore. After all, CROX had the world in the palm of its hand for a time, but a little digging revealed that the crew there were Flextronics vets. In other words, they knew exactly how to spin numbers and product and distribution and expansion — perfect ingredients to send a stock skyrocketing like Iron Man in a hurry to save civilization.

ZAGG is trading between 12.40 and 12.70 this morning. I picked up my old position at 12.06 after hours yesterday. If you tried buying shares in afterhours yesterday, you know it was pretty weird and I'll leave it at that.

I also picked up a bit of FAZ in case the market fell off a cliff, and though GSVC (18.80, up $0.25 this morning) and ZAGG are up, FAZ is up, too. Now 21.88 (+$0.36) after I grabbed some at 21.58 before the end of afterhours trading yesterday.

Have some catching up to do with the market when I get home. Until then, a toast to French poodles and French fries.

Update 4:04 am ZAGG stuck in the 12s, no complaints though. Are the big boys done shorting and manipulating here? FAZ just hit 22.27 as the Dow went to -100. GSVC selling a bit down to 18.30, which smells more like an opportunity to add a few more shares than to sell.

AAPL flirting with 571 again. I still visualize it sliding to a Fibonacci retrace level of 546, which is possible once earnings season ends and the doldrums arrive for a few weeks (days?).

LNKD interesting in this range of 118-119. YELP ... like the site, but not the stock.

Update 5:35 am Added a little more FAZ at 22.41, keeping an eye on that handful. Any good news brings the financials and FAS back, and would reverse FAZ's nice move this morning. Now at 22.53 after drifting in the 22.40s. Big buy jolted it into the 22.50s. Weekend is coming, traders want to be risk adverse/flat, and the non-farm payroll report in premarket all working in collusion.

Nothing to do with France or job numbers. Just a girl who's a lotta fun.


Update 7:01 am FAZ inched up to 22.62, but I hung on. Volume picking up on this normal decline from the high and I'm out at 22.48. Easily could run to another intraday high, but I wanted to lock in a little profit on the 24-hour trade(s). More likely than not traders will prefer to carry FAS or FAZ over the weekend.

Dow is off its low, now -159.

GSVC in the green (18.69) and ZAGG holding on at 12.43 (+4.1%).

Update 10:27 am Between yesterday and today, my thesis was correct. A rarity. Executing through that process, though, was not flawless. I got out of FAZ with a decent gain. It was a small position, for protection more than anything, but it turned out that ZAGG and GSVC were not destroyed by the general market like most other stocks.

ZAGG continues to boggle my mind. On Thursday, it was completely smashed, Hulk style, before the earnings report. And when that report was a plus-plus all the way around, it wasn't tradable online. I got back in by making a phone order. Strange and worthy of investigation? Out of my league.

So today, with the report providing concrete support, ZAGG finally behaved properly, running up to 12.75 in the morning after closing below 12 yesterday. I had no idea that I should've put in a stop loss sell order. ZAGG closed at 11.95, just 2¢ above Thursday's close.

Not horrific, but absolutely mind-bobbling. It would be an oversimplification to say that this small company's stock is being puppeteered. But that doesn't explain a lack of buyers in the afternoon. So that leaves one other viable explanation: It was strictly a pump-and-dump for day and swing traders.

Even if the market opens on Monday flat on its face, I'll still be in this position. Unless I somehow walk out of it in afterhours trading today. Bid (11.97) and ask (12.03) are pennies below my basis. It's a sour taste, to be at this point with ZAGG after all that happened yesterday and that nice paper gain right after the opening bell today. But that stop-loss should've been in. (I don't consider stop-loss a cure-all by any means, but in certain circumstances, it is valuable.)

GSVC made a huge run in the final few hours as speculators jumped on the Facebook bandwagon. I didn't anticipate a move quite like that. It traded down early to 17.92, but at 11 am Eastern, it began an ascent. Pure and golden, from the lower left to the upper right on the chart. GSVC seemed to stall out at 19.25 or so at around 2 pm Eastern. I thought about selling, thought about adding, then left it alone. Then came another move higher, and it is now at 19.65 after hours. A 5.9% gain today, and it's just below its high of the day (19.73).

All this with AAPL down 2.9% to 565.15, the Dow down 168 (-1.3%), Nasdaq down 68 (-2.25%) and S&P down 22 (-1.6%).

So why would I get FAZ yesterday at the close and not now? Simple. Europe often times comes up with its most lamebrained solutions on weekends. Their "solutions" to fiscal desperation are nothing but  symbolic thumbs in the dyke, printing more fiat than ever intended. I see no news of a possible Euro Union get together soon, but it's not worth taking that chance. FAZ could continue to run next week. But it could easily get kneecapped as politicians appease banksters on both sides of the pond.

By that line of reasoning, I should be out of ZAGG. The catalyst is past. Earnings is done until next quarter. Wal-Mart is in the game plan. Without a triumphant, drunk-on-its-own-vomit go-go market, there's nothing to push ZAGG higher for at least a few days, if not a few weeks. If AAPL can't hold its ground, how the hell will ZAGG stay at 12?

Another worry about small-cap stocks is always the possibility (threat) of a secondary offering. It can spring up any time without the slightest bit of warning. ZAGG seems to have its financial house in order, judging by what I heard on the conference call yesterday. But I have to consider the best- and worst-case scenarios.

In a nutshell: Non-buyer's remorse for not adding more GSVC in the morning when it was below 18; non-seller's remorse for not unloading ZAGG in the morning for a fair profit; unwilling to overpay for FAZ here at 22.50 or so (after hours). A very small position wouldn't hurt.

Red Sea

Thick red.

One month's gains mostly wiped out in one day. It's one thing to know a day of reckoning is coming. After six straight weeks to the upside, the market was due for a selloff. But I wasn't prepared. I was heavily long in BAC going into today's earnings report. Never had a chance. It traded above 11 in early premarket, the one mere mortals like me can't trade in. Otherwise, I would've sold.

By the time BAC was sellable in premarket (2 a.m. HST), it was below 10 and sinking. That would've been the right time to get out with a small loss, but I was confident it would bounce back, especially when the new was out that it beat earnings by a wide margin, 44 cents to 5 cents. Didn't matter. So many negatives in the economy -- bad jobs numbers (unemployment) didn't help -- and the stock couldn't find its footing. I sold BAC for a major loss at 8.22. Also sold my little CROX position at 1.83 and the rest of my C at 2.92.

All in all, my 31 percent gain for the past month has been reduced to rubble. I'm now up 7.6 percent. OK, what's the analysis and lesson?

A. When there's a gap down in premarket, sell off some (or all) of the position. More so when the market is due for a correction, and all those quant programs unloaded -- not just financials, but almost everything -- in the way that's reminiscent of selloffs during the past several months. (I had planned to sell the position on a gap up or neutral, so it should be the same on a gap down unless I'm holding AAPL maybe.)

B. In lieu of a manual sell order, put in stop loss sell orders. Simple.

C. Hedge best as possible. With financials, that would've been a long position in FAZ, which is up 24 percent today. FAZ, the short-financials stock on steroids, was 8.90 yesterday but opened today at 9.94 and climbed up, up, up. It's at 11.10 now.

D. The next time the market is up six weeks in a row, I'll go 100 percent cash. Daytrades only, no swinging.

E. If a long is feasible, then stick with the best stocks -- not risky ones like financials. AAPL, again (with earnings due this week), would be a candidate before and during a correction (on a pullback). AAPL is at 119 now, down from 123 one session ago.

Though today's huge loss hurts, I know this bear market will turn for good eventually. I've proven to myself that making profits in a bull market, or at least a bear-market rally, will happen. I'm just thankful that I'm still ahead and I'll be ready with cash when the right time comes.

It wasn't all that great even before today. Though I was up 31 percent, I had left a lot of profit on the table. Had I played things perfectly (I know, never happens), I would've been up 77 percent until today. In five weeks.

Reunited

I wear them every day, but it's been years since I dipped into CROX.

Bought a few shares at 1.91 today. The stock is up 12% already today, finally breaking out. I used to own shares back in the 60ish range. Saw it run up 25% or so, but never hit the sell button and finally got out at break-even.

CROX proved to be a small-time stock, but it is certainly worth more than 2 bucks a share. Staying power of the product tells me that. Back when it was at its highs, I did some research and found that the CEO and some of the board came from another company that had a similar pattern, jumping from 11 to 44 in a two-year span.

CROX duplicated that run-up ... and collapse. If I can get 50 cents on this trade, I'm good.

CROX revisited

I wrote awhile back about the background of Crocs' board, how several of them were at Flextronics when the stock (FLEX) went from 11 to 40 in just three years. Then, after they left, the stock plummeted back down to 11.


When CROX ran from 40 (where I got my first shares) to 75, I thought the run wasn't over. Even as insiders were selling shares left and right, I was blinded by optimism. I was wrong. The stock has cratered. A nightmare for longs who have held their shares all the way to the top and all the way to the bottom. What a nightmare. I had a big profit, lost it (bought at the top, even) and finished with a loss when I got out just under 40. At this point, I'm just glad I got out when I did.

Mr. Brown's Picks

Good friend of mine, Mr. Brown, is dipping his toes into stocks, braving very choppy seas. I'm taking a look at his stocks, with more homework on a few due later.

Awesome maaan. I had to look these up. Some I never knew about before.


Citigroup (C) is very tempting. They have healthy exposure in China, was one of the first major financial institutions to get really embedded in the new economy there. Ups and downs because of the mortgage mess, but there's more upside than downside from here, I think. I kinda expect at least one more downturn related to the mortgage crisis, but that's bearable.


Crocs (CROX) I have to confess I gave up on when I lost a big profit. I wear their sandals, believe in the product. But it went from 40 to 75 and back to below 40. I think it's still a good company but the slowing growth means 75 probably ain't gonna happen with consumer spending tailing off. Maybe 50. That would be a nice profit. I just won't go near it.


I have no idea what EMCOR Group (EME) does, but the stock is on a big roll. It gapped up last week from 22 to 24 and is now at 25.36. Need to do homework on this puppy.


E-Trade (ETFC) I like as an online broker, but there are some serious, ongoing issues in regard to loans. The brokerage is just a small part of the company now so I wonder what the future holds when people make less money (economy, inflation) and default on their loans. When ETFC went below 3, that was just paranoia, though. Doubling to 5 between January and February was the top, I'm guessing. It's gonna take a whole lot to move the stock above 6. I hope it happens.


General Electric (GE) is a classic blue-chip, but it's so huge, where's the growth going to come from? It's a safe stock in this bear market, a good addition to the portfolio.


Google (GOOG) will be back. Maybe not to 750 (last November) right away, but at 464 today, it's tempting. I'd maybe get some shares later, when the selling is done. Might be done for now, actually. GOOG was at 446 intra-day.


Hoku Scientific (HOKU) I already have. Like the company, though risk comes with this. They still need to secure financing for the polysilicon plant in Idaho. Sanyo and Suntech Power are two of the big boys who are betting on Hoku. If the company comes through, there is $10 billion in contracts waiting.


Never heard of St. Joe Corp. (JOE). Gotta do homework.


Metallurgic stocks are hot right now, and I know nothing about them. But metals and other commodities are in demand because of the modernization in China, India and Brazil. North American Palladium (PAL) has run from 3.50 to 9 ... incredible gap-ups in the past month. Careful here. The profit-taking will be immense until the next catalyst/contract. Looking forward to doing some homework here.

The RIMM swing trade: standing still

Research in Motion traded above 123 in pre-market, opened at 122, sold off to 116 and is about to close at 118. Should I have sold? Perhaps. Going from sub-100 to 123 is a hefty gain in any language. My long position entry point is 103 (average). My swing trade shares entry point is 120. So I'm holding on through the selling.

In hindsight, selling at the open (122) and buying back swing shares at 118 would've made sense. The market has a chance to stay bullish for a few days, perhaps through the final third of December.

Nice to see Apple rally, now at 123, less than a buck off its intra-day high. If I buy more shares of either, it'll be Apple especially because I have a slightly smaller position in AAPL than RIMM.

If not Apple, then definitely more Nintendo. Have not added more NTDOY.PK shares in three months or so. My nephew loves his Guitar Hero on Wii. Why not get Activision (maker of Guitar Hero)? Activision is peaking and my intolerance for flitty, fickle smaller cap stocks won't let me get in. If the Fed gets busy with a drastic rate move, I'll consider another ride with a small- or mid-cap retail. Otherwise, no, no, no.

The vomit is still fresh from roller-coaster rides on Crocs, lululemon athletica, China Digital TV, etc. If there is a next time, I'm banking the 50% and 70% profits.

lululemon defies the market

While the rest of the market tanked, how did lululemon athletica hang on to most of its gain today? LULU opened at 43.60, soared to 48.50, and even after the Fed announced that it would cut only a quarter-point, closed up 7.8% at 47.00.

Was the rate cut enough to help all retail stocks? Not really. Crocs took a fall, though it had rallied big recently. My guess is that some of the big boys held on to their shares. Period. The LULU earnings report of Nov. 29 was powerful, and the big boys think the Fed will cut the rate again sooner rather than later.

Whatever the case, volume in LULU was huge today. The stock is expensive now, well above its moving averages. I got out of LULU weeks ago, but the Co is still compelling, growing and young. Watching from a distance here.






















LULU vs. NASDAQ

Holding the RIMM swing shares

Came real close to selling my RIMM swing trade shares at the close of AH. The bid went to 121.80, but the momentum will carry into tomorrow's open, I believe. A stock as strong as RIMM (or AAPL) gives me enough confidence to hold on for another night. Anything less, like CROX or LULU, and I would've taken the profit without hesitation. Bernanke could upset the market tomorrow if he doesn't reiterate what Kohn implied today. The wise will have their fingers on the trigger tomorrow.

Up, down, all around since August bottom

I formed a mock portfolio a few months back, not long after realizing that Aug. 16 was the bottom of the initial subprime mortage fiasco. Now, more than three months later, it's easy to see whether the current market is really doing as horribly as the media presents. So here's what I found, comparing the intra-day low of Aug. 16 versus Wedneday's closing prices.

Then versus Now

Apple: then 111, now 168, +50.9%
Amazon: then 70, now 79, +13.8%
Crocs: then 44, now 38, -12.1%
Garmin: then 86, now 91, +5.5%
Research in Motion: then 61, now 111, +80.4%
Baidu: then 161, now 307, +91.2%
CNOOC: then 92, now 159, +71.9%
Chipotle Mexican Grill: then 92, now 123, +34.1%
Flowserve: then 62, now 90, +45.6%
Google: then 480, now 660, +37.5%
Blue Nile: then 71, now 74, +4.4%
Nintendo: then 52, now 69, +33.9%
Under Armor: then 54, now 46, -14.1%

As a whole, with an evenly weighted investment in each of these stocks, they would be 34.1% in the positive. Even with the horrendous selloff of the past two weeks, 34% up isn't bad at all for three months of holding. Doesn't mean I'm going to return to a buy-and-never-sell practice, but the numbers appear to be more healthy than I had imagined. Far more.

Good Apple for the day

Sold AAPL @ 166.75
Net +2.86/share
The strangest feeling, clicking the sell button on a stock with momentum just two minutes before the close of after-hours trading. My web browser stalled up, a rarity, and I shut it down. When I came back to my online broker, the sale had executed. What Jason Zweig said recently about the psychology of selling stocks is true. I'm like a lot of people, apparently, who are more comfortable with the feeling of holding a winning stock rather than locking in those winning profits (rRe: CROX, STV, LULU, etc.).

Though I had a sell price of 170 on my AAPL daytrade shares, I returned to discipline mantra: not to make decisions, but rather to follow rules and procedures and to act in accordance with policy. That means selling the daytrade shares. I could have rationalized that the trade isn't done, it could become a swing trade going into Monday morning. But the volatility of this week, so many down days, has me wary. I'd love to believe that the correction is done, but I can't. I think the market remains in erratic mode for awhile. Therefore, I will continue to daytrade a half-position in AAPL. If I can get nearly +$3/share as I did today with one trade, I'll be content.

If AAPL opens at 167 or 170 on Monday, so be it. Everything will depend on the market, on news. But if AAPL opens below 166 and the market is neutral, I'll look for a re-entry point.

X Factor: Volume was lower today and did not surpass volume of the previous six sessions. Not an overwhelming indication that Apple's rally will fizzle, but bullish either.

One-day chart below. I like stockcharts.com, but bigcharts.com has the one-day chart. I slept through the big run. I actually remember falling asleep as AAPL began to bounce of its low of 159. Told myself not to bottom-fish just yet. It was about 5:30 am Hawaii time. By the time I got up, it was after 7 am (noon Eastern) and the stock had already run to 167. Amazing. But I like the entry point AAPL gave me later at 163.89.

Sorry for the sloppy lines. I don't have a mouse, nor a pen thingie for the laptop.

Swoons and a margin call

Today, finally, is a good day in the green, up 10% or so. In the meantime, I sold my itty-bitty positions in McDonald's and Under Armor today. I bought these stocks a few months back for my 11-year-old nephew as a way to show him how buying what you know is a good thing, and he's bullish on both, especially Under Armor. Well, UA was obviously horrible, sinking from the 61-65 levels I bought it at. The bloated P/E was a real indicator of where the Co was as a retail stock, plus the huge insider selling was blatantly arrogant. McDonald's on the other hand is a fine Co and I'll be buying that back for my nephew in the near future, long before UA. I'm not anti-UA. I just see major bloating, and the market crushed the stock.

The sales were key for me because of (I saw today) a small margin call. I could have avoided this problem if I had

a. Sold my CROX, LULU and STV (and other stocks) at or near the top
b. Avoided buying speculative stocks like LFT (an IPO)
c. Avoided buying more BIDU and AAPL on the way down

I could've waited and bought BIDU and AAPL earlier today when the market rebounded from the horrendous 5-day slide. I will stay on top of this margin call, of course. Took 20 minutes to get through to someone on the phone at E*Trade, but he said that it's possible that if my account continues to rise before Thursday's margin call deadline, they may not require me to sell any shares. "It's a mystery," Jeff said.

Hmm. Well, I sold the MCD and UA shares today, which could help if the funds settle quickly. You know, if I were a genius and sold near the top before the recent crash, I'd have an account worth about twice what it is today ... and today's session would've been a buying spree to da max. Instead, my account is just getting back to 60% of what it was at its top. Moral of the story: It's a trader's market. I am fully aware of this now. No longer in denial.

When the next dip begins, I'll sell 50 to 75% of my stuff, even AAPL. Then I won't dread looking at my account or at the market action next time. Yesterday (Monday) I didn't even look at my account. First time in a long, long time. Even today, I haven't activated my MarketTrader tool to watch trading in real time. It was good. I had no buying power anyway. But what I must always remember, however, is that I always have selling power.

I have always been faithful to the point of blind faith. Back in the day, when we were 13-year-old comic book collectors, it was me and Peter who loved to read the comics and learned to appreciate great stories. It was Jae who paid superficial attention to the content and really, really knew how to hustle other kids — especially the younger ones enamored with flashy cover art and infamous superhero names like X-Men and Frank Miller's Daredevil — to buy his comics. He was a GREAT salesman who knew what appealed to the masses. He'd have the same comics on the same table as Peter. Jae would have a higher price, but his loud, busy mouth and great salesmanship got him the big profits. He would sell sell sell and make money.

I hold and lose huge profits. The concept of selling, somewhere in my subconscious, is probably that it's a form of "giving up," which is absolutely preposterous. I'm learning to sell to avoid losses, which I did with many stocks in the past month. But the concept of selling to LOCK IN profits is still novel, and I must embrace it.

I realize that my honesty here can and probably will open me up to criticism, but I'm the first to admit that knowledge is key, and I intend to learn from my mistakes, to learn how to sell. It's psychology, not so much the mechanics — a 7% stop-loss is sensible to me. What's crucial now is to overcome the losing mindset, the denial that any stock is going lower ... and lower ... and lower. Hitting that sell button is equally as important as investing long term, if not more. I plan to do both.

Abstaining from eye candy

Crocs. lululemon athletica. Those are just two of the sugar-loaded treats that could beckon people like me who like the products and growth. But like any cavity-creating demon, these stocks are capable of striking the nerves quickly and causing massive pain both in the head and in the wallet.

As much as I saw tremendous gains in smaller cap retail like Crocs and lululemon over the past few months (gains that I never capitalized on!), retail is dead to me. Companies are fine, but the stocks will not move very far. Crocs had a nice bounce today after being oversold into the mid 30s. But for the stock to go beyond the 40s will take a number of catalysts. The one good piece of news for the stock is that the "underpromise/overdeliver" mantra is in place. A patient CROX shareholder will be rewarded. I'm not one of them, though.

All the insider selling that followed guidance raising should've been yellow flags for loyal longs, which I once was. Sure, it wasn't just that the board was making mucho bucks. Anyone who invested in CROX early had every opportunity to cash out big. But in hindsight, the insider sales were the tip of the iceberg, the one that cracked at the slightest bit of warning and warming.

And this is a company that has huge revenues. The other growth toddlers like China Digital TV, Longtop Financial, etc. haven't even proven their worth yet. For now, I'm interested in riding the real powerhouses when the rally arrives. If the market can stabilize with a bullish trend, maybe then I'll explore the mid- and small-cap growth stocks. But I'm not assuming that will happen, and even if it does, I'm all about quick profit-taking. Watching paper profits evaporate has a way of leaving an impression.

Suckage wasn't as bad as I thought

I manage to beat myself down pretty good when a trade goes sour. But looking over my mistakes, I can feel a little better about recent sells. No, I didn't sell at the right price or time. That's listed for the record in my full disclosure (at right). But these stocks that I recently got out of have dipped even lower since.

Amazon (AMZN) • sold @ 90.11 • currently 86.01 (after hours)

China Mobile (CHL) • sold @ 87.54 • currently 86.49

Crocs (CROX) • sold @ 41.70 • currently 40.76

Garmin (GRMN) • sold @ 117.20 • currently 89.00

Longtop Financial (LFT) • sold @ 25.90 • currently 23.19

lululemon athletica (LULU) • sold @ 43.70 • currently 41.00

Blue Nile (NILE) • sold @ 81.25 • currently 80.70

China Digital TV (STV) • sold @ 37, 39 • currently 35.24

VMware (VMW) • sold @ 102.72 • currently 99.80

Yingli Green Energy (YGE) • sold @ 34.85 • currently 36.00

I bought back only into one of these stocks: YGE. Other than that, I'm more than happy to wait out this storm. VMware and China Mobile are the most attractive of the rest.

Pruning the barren pupule tree

Sold CHL (loss of $7/share), LULU (gain of $2/share) and YGE (even). Just too much unpredictability and negativity to hold these babies, even with small positions. I'm not going to wait for these stocks to bleed to death. YGE is actually hanging tough, and had been early in the day. But I will stay out of these. I'm still holding BIDU, MCD, NTDOY, UA, RIMM, AAPL and VMW. MCD and UA are for my nephew.

There's no doubt in my mind. With the Fed out of rate cuts and the US economy slowing, our market is bearish and getting more so by the day. Companies like Crocs and Under Armor are raising guidance and getting pummeled. The only stocks seemingly resistant to all of the financials (Citigroup) and housing subprime crap and economic slowdown today are Google and Baidu. Blue Nile, which reports tomorrow, is up 3.1%. McDonald's is up fractionally.

Other than that, I'm just relieved to prune those stocks out of my folio. When the market turns, I'll be back in.

Crocs takes a bite out of my stubborn pride

What was once my pride and joy has turned into a fucking strikeout to the nth degree. I should've sold a chunk with profits, but I never envisioned this as a trade. I was married to this stock, breaking Rule #1. I sold so that I could avoid even more losses. The stock was in the mid-40s before today, then cost me a few hundred more dollars today in a slightly down market. It's Cramer's effect, telling everyone to get out, plus the fact that the Co has done little to impact the downtrend.

My portfolio gain is practically gone. But there's some relief in being out. I was once up 70% on this stock. Then I made the foolish move of doubling my position the day of earnings, and then poof! The stock cratered and I wouldn't sell, thinking it was a temporary overreaction. Today, I am forced to sell at a 30% loss. The notion of waiting it out is impossible at this point, not the way the stock keeps falling off one cliff and then another. It is impossible, at this point to fight the trend, to fend off the shorts and bears who hate this stock like no other, really.

All growth stocks trade with volatility, and the worst thing that can happen with taking big profits is that you make money. The best thing is that you can re-enter on dips. I am now at the point where I am going to trade/take profits in everything I every buy from this point. The only stocks I might leave a half-position long in are Apple and RIMM. Maybe. This was a costly lesson. My position was small, so it didn't break me, but it's still painful, a blow to my ego. That's a good thing.

Even Cramer warned people to avoid buying/trading on earnings. It was almost as if he was telling me don't buy more CROX, fool. This is another case where my personality traits work against me as an investor. I have patience. I have a high threshold of pain. I also have enough arrogance to imagine that my conclusion about a great stock will always trump anything the market brings. The truth is, it is still emotion that stunts my growth when it comes to making money in the market. Otherwise, I would be entirely mathematical about my profits and take then on every 7% (or 5% or 3%) decline. All my stubborness about holding stocks for a year to lower taxes is meaningless. CROX is a perfect example.

Just a week ago, CROX was near 75. Had I been prudent and put in a 7% stop loss, I would've stopped out at about 69.75 ... or actually, much less because the stock started tanking before the earnings report ,,, somewhere around 60, which is what I remember in the moments of the earnings report. It doesn't matter if there's major manipulation going on by the big boys. Can't fight it, can't stop it, and though I hate to admit it, Cramer is right. Better for us average Joes to get in and out quickly, before the big boys can leave us hung dry and holding the bag. Empty bags.

It wouldn't surprise me to see CROX rebound eventually, but it won't happen any time soon without positive news. Strong positive news. And though Georges Yared is probably right about CROX in his latest analysis, one thing he and a lot of bulls have never really grasped is the fact that this is the most tumultuous, volatile market perhaps ever. Long-term investors are better off staying away from streaming quotes and computers for weeks and months at a time, while traders are raking in profits on the long and short sides.

Up 70% (Crocs), up 57% (China Digital TV), up 49% (lululemon athletica), the least I could've done was take half the position off the table and bank it. Instead, my gains were minimal, losses were substantial (within small positions). We'll get our dips and our runs. Now I have to figure out what to do with my LULU and CHL.

Steroid Monsters Good

Normally, words like steroids and monsters conjure up negativity, even nightmares for squeamish little boys and girls like us. But really, in the market, the big-cap growth stocks have flourished for long-term holders. For short-term swing traders, they have been glorious. Apple. RIMM. Google.


















Today, with the market returning to a neutral state, at least in the NAS, I'm looking for a bargain. China Mobile is at 99.15 in after hours, just below its 10-day simple moving average. CHL is well off its highs of the week, a steroid monster with the dominant position in China. Because of the Chinese penchant for internet surfing via cellphone rather than the PC, growth is still going to be huge for China Mobile. The Co is only beginning to tap into the enormous online gaming market, as well. Those brothers in China love their online games, and the sisters absolutely depend on text messaging.


















Another complex, intriguing temptor is lululemon athletica, which is below 47 right now. The stock has been a trader's wet dream, really, spiking from 40 to 60 in almost no time because of raised guidance. Of course, anything that ascends too quickly comes crashing down just as quickly, if not faster. That's the case for LULU, which has now traded down in seven of the last nine sessions. Today's dip to 46.75 (AH) came on larger volume — not a positive buy sign. Then again, if the market truly is oversold, this is a good place to start a small position. Those who got their 50% gain and sold are wiser and wealthier for it.

I love this Co, but it has to be a trading vehicle, at least with a half-position. It'll probably stay in that category until after Q3 earnings are out. If the Co meets expections — the ones that it guided to last month before the huge spurt to 60 — there could be another selloff. To me, guidance is foolhardy, but the Co may have been responding from a previous dip that sent the stock from 47 to 41 in just two days.

Oh well. This is the nature of the game today for younger growth retail companies. Guide or sink. Google allowed its stock to sink from 125 to 85 in the first few months of its IPO. No guidance, no outward stress. They did all right. I'm not hoping for LULU to dip even more here. I would like to hear about an earnings announcement date, though. Early in any of the upcoming weeks rather than later — one of my few superstitious tenets about bullish-versus-bearish reports. LULU is trading below its 10- and 50-day moving averages. A clear buy signal for an established stock. LULU is too young right now for me to stamp an automatic strong buy tag on it. Risky.


















VMware is another attractive buy, even though it has run up so strongly. At 116.75 (AH), the stock is down 4.5% today, but still above its 10-day SMA (114.35). The stock hit a low of 114.55 mid-day, so this may have been the short-term bottom. I love the Co and its prospects, its dominant state. I've said this before, when I bought before earnings, and my perspective has not changed. As long as there's no negative news, it has support at this level. I'm real close to getting a few more shares of VMW right here.

The cloud above all of this thinking and guessing, of course, is the market. No Fed rate cuts on the horizon. More clouds ahead. But the true steroid monsters will plow forward, unstoppable by problems in the U.S. That's what makes CHL compelling. Bad numbers or not in the periphery, VMW will plow forward because of demand. Retail, though, can't really digest a future without stronger consumer spending and/or Fed rate cuts. That rules out more LULU, probably. I'm overweight there to begin with.


















Crocs? The stock is all over the place, currently at 47.36 (AH). Can't tell if this is a bottom, or whether it will sink more on Monday without another buyback by the Co. But I haven't sold a share.

Trade in profits when possible. That's my new mantra. But there's no profit with a buy first. Bargain shopping resumes now.

Crocs faces poachers

By nature, I'm a buy-and-hold investor, but the best thing I've learned from Cramer is that the street owns. If the street wants something, it gets it one way or another, sooner or later. That's why he pushes the profit-taking mantra daily. Take half off if you have a huge profit. He knows and now I know it's been a Trader's Market for a while now, and there's extra money to be made by trading a half-position, 2/3 or 3/4 position, whatever, in your best stocks.

Crocs is a classic example. The street was far behind the common investor on this stock, and the street has been trying to punish us little guys forever (high short interest). Well ... they finally got to us, street gets the last laugh. Bank the short, put cheap CROX shares on the books. Twofold win. Manipulation? What manipulation? The street wouldn't do that, would they?

Of course they would. Legal or otherwise. But there's no crying in investing. Who can be poached by the street when profits are already in the bank? That's why Cramer, in his own way, is absolutely right ... much as I hate to do short-term trading. I'm just glad the bleeding has finally stopped. In 2006, AAPL went from 87 to 53 (July). If Crocs maintains growth rates above 100% and the dollar remains weak, numbers from overseas could surpass anyone's imagination. Maybe an Applelicious type of run ahead. I don't doubt it could happen.

Apple is at 187 today. If Crocs has a similar buying psychology (it doesn't because of immense hatred from bears/shorts) and we have a similar reversal, the sky is still the limit.

Back to Cramer. He implores the masses (his groupies) to take significant profits as quickly and prudently as possible, in effect beating the street whenever there's a run. The street knows this, and takes profits earlier and earlier. We have an accelerating pattern of sells on surges, and thus, mammoth volatility. Cramer did some of us a favor by hating Crocs overnight. Those of us with dry powder.

Remember, he always said the time to sell Crocs would be after it had four big-time analysts following it. Never happened. A string of good news will send shorts covering.

Crocs announces buyback

Thank goodness, we may have a reprieve.

Crocs, Inc. Board of Directors Authorizes Stock Repurchase

It's "only" a million shares, but anything would help to stop the bleeding at this point. Crocs has done its share of guiding the street, both at mid-quarter and at end. Google seems to do fine without guiding anyone.

Crocs gets bit, but guidance is strong

Crocs "disappointed" the street by reporing EPS of $0.66, but that's in line rather than an actual decline. Still, I'm feeling the bite as the stock is down more than $11 from the shares I picked up an hour ago. I'm holding, though. Why?

• Crocs "executed several important initiatives that have strengthened our operating platform, namely the opening of a new 320,000 square foot European distribution facility that will allow us to better support our future growth in the region," CEO Ron Snyder said. The buildout of this facility is key, and obviously the cost cut into the Co's bottom line. Not a whole lot different from Google's mass hiring of engineers in Q2, and that led to a big selloff of stock by the street. GOOG has rebounding rather nicely since then, I'd say.

• Raised guidance for Q4. "For the year ending December 31, 2007, Crocs raised its guidance. The Company now projects revenues to range from $820 to $830 million and net income per diluted common share of between $1.94 and $1.98."

• Raised guidance for 2008. Snyder: "The Company also introduced fiscal year 2008 guidance. Crocs currently anticipates revenues and net income per diluted share toincrease between 35% to 40% over the projected 2007 levels. Mr. Snyder concluded, "Our year-to-date performance has been marked by significant gains in sales and earnings, robust international expansion, a number of high-profile licensing agreements, and the continued build out of our global infrastructure. Even as we achieve record results and reach important objectives in our financial, strategic, and operational development we are confident that we are positioned well for continued growth in 2008."

Reunited and it feels so good

Finally. It's been a long time since I added more Crocs, just as long as I've bought my first pair of Caymans. Added, actually doubled, my meager position at 73.60. No, it's not as nice a price as yesterday, when I debated whether to get more at 72 flat. But now that Big Ben has said his piece and the market as digested it nicely and quickly, CROX is where am comfortable.

Earnings out after the bell and everyone knows it'll be blowout city. As Georges Yared wrote recently, the Co gets 50% of its revenues overseas. Slowing US economy is not a major issue. Unemployment number is still fairly good, people still have buying power, and they're showing signs that they are selective. Crocs are durable, anti-bacterial, anti-smelly and Croslite comfortable. I think I'll reward myself with a new pair, maybe one of those stylish designs.