Up, down, all around since August bottom

I formed a mock portfolio a few months back, not long after realizing that Aug. 16 was the bottom of the initial subprime mortage fiasco. Now, more than three months later, it's easy to see whether the current market is really doing as horribly as the media presents. So here's what I found, comparing the intra-day low of Aug. 16 versus Wedneday's closing prices.

Then versus Now

Apple: then 111, now 168, +50.9%
Amazon: then 70, now 79, +13.8%
Crocs: then 44, now 38, -12.1%
Garmin: then 86, now 91, +5.5%
Research in Motion: then 61, now 111, +80.4%
Baidu: then 161, now 307, +91.2%
CNOOC: then 92, now 159, +71.9%
Chipotle Mexican Grill: then 92, now 123, +34.1%
Flowserve: then 62, now 90, +45.6%
Google: then 480, now 660, +37.5%
Blue Nile: then 71, now 74, +4.4%
Nintendo: then 52, now 69, +33.9%
Under Armor: then 54, now 46, -14.1%

As a whole, with an evenly weighted investment in each of these stocks, they would be 34.1% in the positive. Even with the horrendous selloff of the past two weeks, 34% up isn't bad at all for three months of holding. Doesn't mean I'm going to return to a buy-and-never-sell practice, but the numbers appear to be more healthy than I had imagined. Far more.

Suckage wasn't as bad as I thought

I manage to beat myself down pretty good when a trade goes sour. But looking over my mistakes, I can feel a little better about recent sells. No, I didn't sell at the right price or time. That's listed for the record in my full disclosure (at right). But these stocks that I recently got out of have dipped even lower since.

Amazon (AMZN) • sold @ 90.11 • currently 86.01 (after hours)

China Mobile (CHL) • sold @ 87.54 • currently 86.49

Crocs (CROX) • sold @ 41.70 • currently 40.76

Garmin (GRMN) • sold @ 117.20 • currently 89.00

Longtop Financial (LFT) • sold @ 25.90 • currently 23.19

lululemon athletica (LULU) • sold @ 43.70 • currently 41.00

Blue Nile (NILE) • sold @ 81.25 • currently 80.70

China Digital TV (STV) • sold @ 37, 39 • currently 35.24

VMware (VMW) • sold @ 102.72 • currently 99.80

Yingli Green Energy (YGE) • sold @ 34.85 • currently 36.00

I bought back only into one of these stocks: YGE. Other than that, I'm more than happy to wait out this storm. VMware and China Mobile are the most attractive of the rest.

China + Solar = Profits

Chasing is rarely wise, but Friday buys have been good to me. I sold my small Garmin position at $117.20 and came out with a profit of $9.30/share. Not a big profit of course but there are 2 main reasons for the sell.

1. raise some buying power to get YGE, which I bought at $34.57 before after-hours trading closed.
2. too many questions about Garmin's relationship with Navteq. Earnings report is Wed., and if GRMN does not have a long-term solution for a mapmaker, we could see a selloff. I'll wait until they have a solution. Otherwise, they're still a good company and I'm probably going to get more shares after the dust has settled.

Solar + China is a solid combination, particularly with crude oil above $91 now and unrest in Iraq (Turkey). I keep writing about how much I like the energy sector, but now I'm finally acting on it. Yingli closed at an all-high today on heavy volume. The volume wasn't humongous, so I hesitate to label this a breakout, but market in crude oil and the politics in Iraq/Turkey are strong enough for me to move on YGE.

Garmin worth waiting for

Nice recovery for Garmin since the Nokia-Navteq announcement. As expected, not a single word from Garmin, and there probably won't be one until earnings on Oct. 31. That would be Halloween. But don't be scared. Garmin has it allllllll under control.

The stock closed at 112.44 today, well above its 10-day SMA (106.85) and 50-day SMA (104.69).

Pupule says: Wait. If you think another market pullback is coming in the next two weeks, better to keep your powder dry.

Bargain hunt yields few catches

No surprise here. The market is off the charts (yes, I will milk a cliche if it is true), so I don't expect to find any of my A and A- grade stocks to turn up as buys here.

My A graders — Amazon, Apple, Crocs, Garmin and Research in Motion — all bumped up on Friday. Only one is relatively cheap: Garmin (GRMN). Thanks to the panic sell-off last week, GRMN closed at 103.71 on Friday, well below its 10-day SMA (103.91) and just a tad above its 50-day SMA (102.64). CROX, meanwhile, closed at 67.70 for a meager gain on Friday. The stock is just a bit over its 10-day SMA (66.51) and far above its 50-day SMA (58.56).

The A- graders are a mixed bag as far as bargains go. Blue Nile (NILE) closed Friday at 94.32, below its 10-day SMA (95.84), but still high over its 50-day SMA (86.37). eBay closed at 38.75, below its 10-day SMA (39.15), but I'm not tempted because of the lack of real policing by the Co of rip-off sellers (my personal experience).

lululemon athletica (LULU) is tapering down from an all-time high. At 44.88, it is nearing its 10-day SMA (43.67). At 105.90, Potash (POT) is also hovering near its 10-day SMA (104.86). Synaptics (SYNA) closed Friday at 47, below its 10-day SMA (47.57). Under Armor, meanwhile, continues to drag. The stock closed Friday at 58.90, below its 10-day SMA (59.74) and 50-day SMA (62.53). UA is the only stock among my A and A- graders that has a lower 10-day average than 50-day average. If I were a doctor, my diagnosis of UA would require a stay in the hospital. The stock has been sick for awhile now, and with a high P/E and a history of mixed earnings results, buyers are staying away.

Pupule says: GRMN, NILE and SYNA are buys. UA is a solid buy if you like the Co. I like my other stocks too much to put anything into UA right now.

Garmin not as gnome-ish today

Is Garmin still a buy here? The stock popped 4.2% to 100 today, no surprise since it was below its 10- and 50-day simple moving averages yesterday. I thought it was a buy yesterday, but cautiously so.

So, is GRMN a buy at 100? Yes. Here, it's almost touching its 50-day SMA, actually slightly below. The X Factor, of course, is how the Co solves its map-access issue in the long term. Buy Navteq? Build its own navigation (software)? Whatever the answer is, volume today was 9.5 million shares, the strongest up day since Sept. 27. Then again, the past three down sessions all have greater volume than today. The Co is superb and the bump up today was no surprise. Without any news to the upside, however, patience is required for longs.

Pupule says: Buy cautiously, be patient.

Garmin a gnome or a giant?

Almost too good to be true if you've been waiting for a bargain price in Garmin (GRMN). At $96.54, or the afterhours price of $96.40, the stock is trading below its 10-day SMA and EMA and its 50-day moving averages. That kind of dip is extremely rare to find in today's frothy market, and not without reason. The major run-up left a lot of traders with hefty paper profits, and when Garmin got the stiff arm (Nokia's planned buyout of Navteq), it appeared at first that Garmin's access to online mapping was shot.

Not so, though. Nokia/Navteq is still contracted to sell maps to Garmin, though there's no way to know what happens with the pricing. The deal is long term, so it's not like Garmin's great GPS products will go without maps all of a sudden. The Co has alternatives, though, none were as good as owning a Navteq. Still, I see the Co rebounding from this major drop over the past three sessions. The all-time high of 122 on Friday is no more.

This 21% fall is mighty. It is also losing steam. Volume on Monday, the gap-down session, was 22 million shares. It was 19 mil on Tuesday and 9 mil today. Is the selloff done? Perhaps. The Co seems to be in no rush to soothe shareholders. I wouldn't be surprised if there was no word from Garmin until earnings come out at the end of this month.

So, is GRMN a buy? Depends on what you think of management and the Co's execution.

Pupule says: Buy small if at all. The floor is near, and shrinking volume says a lot. When this stock turns back up, it'll be swift.

Nokia & Garmin?

Howard Lindzon speculates that Nokia could buy Garmin. Makes sense since Nokia is in acquisition mode, trying to catch up.

Lindzon: Garmin…Chaching?

As for Trimble ... he could be right. Again.

The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

Unless you work the graveyard shift or live in the Pacific like I do, it may be a bit difficult to relate to what I'm saying. Waking up to see such strange things always gets me.

• In a middling market, AAPL continues to push higher. And higher. Trading at 157.50 right now. Me happy.

• BIDU is up 11% to 317. What the heck is going on? (I'll look at the news later.)

• GRMN is down another 10 bucks or so. When I got a small position a couple of weeks ago, I was content to finally have one more of my A grade stocks in house. Little did I know that the Co was one event away from potential disaster. I thought yesterday's 10% fall was tough, but another 7% today is either pure panic by shareholders or the beginning of a new, not-so-fluffy era. Simple question: Why didn't Garmin just buy Navteq in the first place?

• It's not that bad. LULU exploded today to a mid-day high above 47, now trading above 46.

• RIMM, two days away from Q3 earnings, is falling again. Today, down 3% to 95.75. This wouldn't be the first time a stock sells off in advance of earnings, but it's not what I expected of this week.

Pit stops today for growth kings

Wow. No posts here for three days. Maybe I have a life after all. Some passing thoughts on a supposedly down day.

• Georges Yared is right. Again. Just a few days ago, he wrote that AAPL's life below $150 per share was coming to an end soon. The stock has run from the 130s to today's high of 150.22 in a short time. Yared has been a persistent bull when it comes to certain growth stocks. He's been right. Bull's eye right, and that's why I continue to absorb his writing.

• BIDU continues to fluctuate today. With the NAS flitting below and above neutral in this first hour, BIDU dropped to 295 before rallying back to 300. An insane run for a stock that hit a subprime-sludge low of 161 on August 16. I can't help but think that a lot of money has gone to BIDU stock because a) it's in China, and b) it's a search engine. And that's it. Profits are nothing special. All Baidu really has is huge growth margins in a country of 1.3 billion people, most of whom still don't have computers. That's where cellphone web access comes into play, and that's why I wonder why BIDU is taking so long to anchor itself in that realm. Chinese access the web more by cellphone than computer. It's not even close. I just wonder if Alibaba, a major IM company that's 40% owned by Yahoo, will ever open an ADR in the states.

• CROX is running up again. A lot of bulls are expecting the Co to share robust mid-Q3 numbers during a presentation this morning. The stock broke through the 60 barrier on Monday with major volume.

• Among the small group of stocks on the plus side early in the day was GRMN, which hit an all-time high of 120. Stock pulled back and is now at 117.58. The stock has doubled since late May, and I wonder if a split is imminent. I'm not a big fan of splits, but I don't avoid them, either.

• LULU has been sitting for much of the morning at 39. When Cramer pumped the stock last week with a long segment, LULU made a couple of runs to the 41-plus range. I think LULU sits in this range until earnings, but you never know...

• MCD is consolidating after last week's magical run off the announcement of a 50% increase in the dividend. I got a few shares, mainly for my nephew (he loves the chicken snack wrap and has loved McDonald's all his life), but I don't see another run in the shares until earnings. Maybe the Co can make a deal with Apple and give away iTune songs in the McCafe and at the drive-thru. So wacky that it could happen.

• NILE had a couple of runs to 105-106 recently, but pulled back to 99-100 both times. Today, the stock is locked mostly in a 98-100 range, taking a breather since its run from 80 during the past two weeks. No complaints here. I'm just glad I got a little piece at 80. Sure, I wish I'd gotten more at 80 (or even 75), but this was pre-Fed rate meeting, so what I did (by my standards) was spooky. The older I get, the more adverse I am to risk. It's the dang truth and I can't deny it.

• RIMM broke into positive territory before much of the market and has kept its gains. I wonder how sales are going in China.

• Another favorite of my nephew's, Under Armor, hasn't been much in this rally. UA is down 1.2% to 63.92. I just think the forward P/E (47) is still a bear argument that a lot of bulls have bought. I can't argue against it when CROX is trading at a forward P/E of 23.

• Nintendo is forming a base here above 60, much to the relief of longs like me who had foolishly bought more shares at these levels. Though I won't be buying any stock at these lofty prices, it's reassuring to know that my A and A- stock picks have great reasons that more than justify their valuations. The Wii is still a killer app, as is the DS, and that won't change going into Christmas season.

I love you, I hate you: Well, well. Focus Media has finally cleared up its Q2 filing mess and the stock is up 15.4% so far. I would be angry about this, as a former FMCN long, but I'm past that. At some point, this is still going to be a piece of Chinese advertising that I want, but I need a bargain price first.

And speaking of China, Yingli Green Energy is up 3.7% to 25.64. The whole oil patch craziness is intriguing. Oil prices go up, CNOOC Ltd., PetroChina and Exxon go up, and so do the solar/clean energy stocks. I'm just surprised, with the U.S. economy slowing, that I haven't kept my toes in China's waters.

Bargain shopping yields 3 fair prices

Flat market today. A pause to refresh. Pit stop. Calm before the storm. Whatever cliche works for you, the next question is, where does the market go from here? Do stocks simply ramp up or will the market just tread sideways until earnings?

I'm guessing it will be the latter. U.S. economy slowing, global economy still forging ahead. Speaking of the latter, I'm surprised with my lack of China exposure in my portfolio. At one time, I had small pieces of Focus Media and Sina. I got out of FMCN because of its internal accounting issues. The Co still hasn't reported Q2 results, and Nasdaq hasn't settled their situation. SINA is China's top portal, and I would feel OK about stepping back in at a healthy entry point.

Baidu? At these levels, no. No way. A trader's fantasy, though. Now I want to look at what may be in the bargain bin of A and A- grade stocks.

Amazon 89. Leveling off and volume has declined for the past three days since the Fed rate cuts. After blowout Q2 earnings, Georges Yared wrote that the mutual funds would be marching into this stock. Then the market got skittish and AMZN went to 69 on sub-prime meltdown day (August 16). Well, 69 to 89 in a month ain't too shabby. The stock is trading slightly above its 10-day SMA (87). Jeff Bezos rules online retailing, and someday, Outer Space. The stock usually trades like the black sheep of the A grade family. Lags behind, then explodes. Pupule says: Wait.

Apple 140. Down for a second day in a row, just fractionally, on lower volume. Still trading above its moving averages; 10-day SMA is 137. Yared writes that the days of AAPL below 150 are numbered. I remember thinking that the stock was stuck in the 90s forever. That was in April. And then I let go of my shares despite my complete and utter belief about the iPhone and the Co. Never again, never again. Pupule says: Wait.

Crocs 56. The effect of nationwide reports about the sandals and escalator accidents is beginning to subside. Though CROX was up 2% today to 56.45, it continues to trade below its 10-day SMA (57) and EMA (56.99). Today's gain came on lower volume — there's not much conviction on either side of the fence right now. Is this a great buying opportunity? Pupule says: Buy small.

Garmin 106. Stock was down nearly 1% today on lower volume. GRMN (106.75) is a hair above its 10-day SMA (106.44) and EMA (106.25). Like all the A graders, this is a great Co that is hard to resist. Pupule says: Buy small.

Research in Motion 90. Down 1.4% today, but well above its moving averages. 10-day SMA is 86, EMA is 87. Pupule says: Wait.

Baidu 277. The stock was up again today, fractionally. BIDU has traded higher in nine of the last 10 sessions. Insane. The stock is at nosebleed levels. The 10-day SMA is 242 and the 10-day EMA is 249. Pupule says: Wait.

Blue Nile 99. Bit of a surprise that NILE is holding up with strength here. Strength? Yesterday, the stock hit 98 and did a free-fall to 91. Looked like the end of a nice ride for me (from 80). But NILE gathered itself and longs pushed it back up to 95. Today, with continued solid volume, NILE hit 100 briefly before recording an all-time closing high. Stock has been up in eight of the last nine sessions and is trading far above moving averages. 10-day SMA is 86; 10-day EMA is 89. Pupule says: Wait.

Chipotle Mexican Grill 110. Down 1.8% after five up sessions in a row. Volume today was low, but the stock is still above its 10-day SMA (97) and 10-day EMA (107). Pupule says: Wait.

CNOOC Ltd. 148. Oil hit a new high at $83 per barrel, but CNOOC dipped 3.5% today. Inevitable after zooming from a low of 92 one month ago to a high of 155 yesterday. Still a ways to go before my favorite oil/natural gas stock is buyable. 10-day SMA: 134. 10-day EMA: 137. Pupule says: Wait.

Flowserve 77. The opportunity to buy this pump parts company was a week ago, when I wrote about its discounted price. FLS is finally joining the party, and in a big way. Down a skosh today, but still expensive. 10-day SMA: 72. 10-day EMA: 74. Pupule says: Wait.

Google 552. Like NILE and FLS, GOOG was terribly oversold not so long ago. Since disappointing the street with Q2 results (and only because the Co invested in a ton of new employees mostly in China), the stock languished until this week. Today, GOOG was up another 1% on steady volume. In fact, the stock has been up seven of the last eight trading days, and volume on that down day was miniscule. 10-day SMA: 529. 10-day EMA: 533. Pupule says: Wait. When Baidu cools off, so will Google.

lululemon athletica 39. Another day, another all-time high for LULU (41-plus mid-day). Volume was substantially down today, but today's increase (3.6%) defied the market's down day. Four up days in a row, lower volume ... might be time for the stock to take a breather. Then again, tomorrow's Friday, and some of the big houses might want to furnish their rooms with sparkling new lululemon goodies. Trading well above its 10-day averages. Pupule says: Wait.

McDonald's 54. A nice, reliable way to play China's booming economy. Mickey D was down 1% today, but volume was weak after several huge days on the upside since the Co's announcement of a 50% dividend hike. I sit in Starbucks, but I invest in Mickey D. 10-day SMA: 53. 10-day EMA: 50. Pupule says: Wait.

Nintendo 63. The stock languished in the 50s for a six-week stretch, doing its best CROX imitation. Now that the Co has announced increased supply of the Wii console for the US this holiday season, there's reason to be bullish again. Apparently, longs didn't wait, pushing the stock up in four out of five days. Today's 1.1% decline was due, and the trend is up, but it's better to be patient. 10-day SMA: 59. 10-day EMA: 60. Pupule says: Wait.

Potash 98. Instead of slowing momentum, Potash saw volume increase in today's massive 5.1% run-up. This stock never ceases to amaze me. I find myself writing the same things about POT that I did about CEO. 10-day SMA: 90. 10-day EMA: 91. Pupule says: Waaaait.

Synaptics 46. Huge move up came to a halt yesterday. Today, the stock sold off 3%. 10-day SMA: 44. 10-day EMA: 45. Close but no cigar. I like touchscreen, I like this Co, but ... Pupule says: Wait.

Under Armor 63. Having a high valuation (forward P/E of 48 versus CROX's forward P/E of 22) doesn't help UA sometimes. Down 2.9% today, five down days in the last six and nine downers in the last 12. Co needs at least one more blowout quarter to silence the bears, shorts and doubters. Until then, the stock will continue to snooze. UA (63.34) is trading below its 10-day EMA (63.60) and just above its 10-day SMA (63.26). Pupule says: Price is reasonable, but buy very small if at all.

Best buys

It's no fantasy: The best stocks and NFL teams have elite traits

There's no fighting the trend, no fighting the Fed. That's why, as much as I adhere to fundamentals and technicals, I view my remaining buying power with a trading mentality. The common denominator, though, is that I am willing to deal with A and A- grade stocks. Best of breed, pack leaders, however you label them, it's pointless to avoid great companies and settle for mediocre outfits. Why avoid Tom Brady and the New England Patriots only to settle for the middling New York Jets? The Arizona Cardinals have offensive weapons, but a horrible offensive line, so I'd rather ride the San Diego Chargers and LT.

NFL fanaticism is a far cry from investing hard-earned money into stocks and a fickle market, but the principle applies. Not gonna put money on a losing team, not gonna put cash on a longshot company. I've got pieces of my five A grade stocks now. Goodie.

Amazon = Denver Broncos
Apple = New England Patriots
Crocs = New Orleans Saints
Garmin = Pittsburgh Steelers
Research in Motion = Indianapolis Colts

Fair? I think so. Of these five A grade stocks, Crocs faces the most scrutiny. Even before they examine the numbers, there are a lot of haters. Some people, mostly men, just can't stand the sight of Cayman sandals, and therefore, they write CROX off as a useless, doomed fad. The same bears are taunting longs over the recent media hysteria over Crocs and escalators.

Sounds a little like the "fans" jumping off the Saints' bandwagon after an 0-2 start. The escalator problem is real, but here in Hawaii, we've all learned to wear slippers to the mall, and the slippers most of us wear are much thinner, much more floppy than Caymans. Parents on the mainland will wise up, I think, and take their kids' Crocs off before stepping on escalators. Plain common sense.

Or they'll just wear tennis shoes to the mall and use the Crocs for everywhere else. I'm not worried about my CROX. Common sense and huge growth will continue to prevail. Here are a few more NFL analogies.

Jeff Bezos' clone in the NFL is Mike Shanahan. Master game-planner, visionary and relentless. The Broncos' zone-blocking scheme is one of the automatic successes every year, as is Amazon's peerless distribution model.

Garmin isn't an old, historic franchise like Pittsburgh, but has a killer app that is quickly becoming a part of our culture. GPS, GPS, GPS.

RIMM is explosive, the BlackBerry gives users reach and power while on the go. It is novel technology, all about control. It is Peyton Manning calling audibles and finding open receivers at will against any defense.

Baidu = Detroit Lions
Blue Nile = Cincinnati Bengals
Google = San Diego Chargers
McDonald's = Dallas Cowboys
Nintendo = Seattle Seahawks

Baidu has a savvy, U.S.-educated and experienced CEO (Robin Li, formerly of Infoseek) and a lot of explosive growth ahead, much like the passing fiends at Detroit.

Blue Nile is big on margins, the first-mover in its niche, but there is a lot of doubting from the bleachers when it comes to off-field activity. NILE has heavy insider selling; the Bengals had, well, indiscretions.

Google and the Chargers are both powerful teams who haven't quite reached their plateau yet.

McDonald's and "America's Team" are twins. The Cowboys were down after the "Triplets" retired, but like Mickey D's, Dallas back with a swagger and global dominance. (And yes, Tony Romo quarterbacks one of my fantasy teams.)

Nintendo owns the Seattle Mariners, and like the Seahawks, have been much improved in recent years. Can Nintendo and the Seahawks get the gold this winter? I'm more bullish on the Wii and DS than I am on Shaun Alexander and Matt Hasselbeck.

Exhuberence and Temperance

What the heck, all caution has been thrown to the wind. For now, anyway. The Fed cuts the rates by 50 points and the market goes to the moon.

Dow Jones: +335 (2.5%) to 13,739
S&P 500: +43 (2.9%) to 1,519
Nasdaq: +70 (2.7%) to 2,651

Strangely enough, I wasn't pleased. I want to make money. I like making money. I hate losing money. But the rate cuts threw fundamentals and technicals out the window in some ways. It may be a while, maybe a long, long time, before we see bargain prices in the market again. I'm all about getting great stocks on the cheap (most of the time).

So where does discipline fit into this fastbreak, no-huddle offense of a market? I used today's momentum to inch my way into positions for two more A grade stocks that I had been out of: Garmin and Amazon. Inching into the A graders isn't painful for me. The fundamentals, the growth rates ... I've liked them for months. So I got a small position of GRMN at 107 and another of AMZN at 89. No pain, just discomfort from buying shares of stocks well above their moving averages.

Also bought shares of McDonald's for my nephew and myself. Just the monthly addition I do for him, and he's been bullish on McDonald's numbers for a few months, well before the recent global growth numbers. He used to be bullish on Happy Meals, and now he's bullish on chicken snack wraps.

A generous market washes away mistakes: buying AAPL too high (above moving averages) at 135 and 144; buying NTDOY.PK at 62; buying UA at 65. I inched into RIMM last Friday at 87, not on technicals, and that could've turned into a mistake, too.

But a generous market also rewards technically sound entry points with a boost of turbo power: NILE within its 13-day MA last week at 80 (which I failed to get at 75 because of a glitch in my account); NTDOY.PK at 55; CROX at 40.

Inching into RIMM

I went against all technical fundamentals today and scooped up a small slice of Research in Motion, which closed up 1.7% to 87.26.

The raised target from 83 to 110 by RBC Capital did not hurt longs. It did hurt me, though, since I've been waiting for an opportunity to buy RIMM cheap. It trades well above its moving averages, and if the Fed disappoints the market on Tuesday, RIMM will drop with the rest of the market.

On August 16, in the midst of the subprime mortgage mess, RIMM shares sank to 61, far below its 13- and 50-day SMA and EMA. This is one of my A grade stock picks, a fundamentally strong company with incredible growth numbers. I don't own a BlackBerry, nor have I seen one in person, but I hear that these devices can change a baby's diaper, feed an elderly person and pump gas into your car all at once.

Now I have small morsels of three A grade stocks: Apple, Crocs and Research in Motion. Amazon and Garmin remain out of reach ... for now. I may regret this small buy of RIMM, but I'll be waiting for a bargain price. When I have waited, I've been rewarded with shares of Nintendo (55), which traded below its 13-day MA at the time, and Blue Nile. I got NILE at 80, right at its 13-day MA, on Monday after not being able to buy at 75 (on its 50-day MA) last Friday.

When I haven't been disciplined — buying A/A- grade stocks at technically sound prices — it's been costly. Apple at 144 and 135. Nintendo at 62 (ouch!). The good side of sticking with top stocks is that I'm in for the long haul, so the short-term dumbass mistakes won't kill me. But more and more, I am engrossed with bargain prices, and in this schizo market — we've had two significant declines in the past month — patience is immensely rewarded for long-term holders. I hope to be one of them.

Up, down, happy frown

The rest of the market went up today. My porftolio stayed down. Apple down. Crocs barely up. Nintendo neutral. My tidbits of Under Armor (down slightly) and Baidu (up) don't affect the sum much. I'm waiting for a chance to get my A grade stock picks at a reasonable price, but it just ain't happening. Time to do a little studying.

Amazon 86. The stock jumped 3.5% today, keeping the AMZN rally alive and well. After looking dead in the 70s for such a long time, it's nice to see longs on the winning side of this growth story. Chinese are astute shoppers, at least the ones i know, and I have great optimism for the Co's growth in China. At this price, though, the stock is far above its 13-, 50- and 200-day moving averages (exponential and simple). Pupule says: Wait.

Apple 135. Low volume today as profit-takers overtook the stock on a -0.89% day. You know, the stock moved up yesterday from 131 to 138 on the announcement of the one-millionth iPhone sold. No other real reason or catalyst. That's life with Apple. At 135, AAPL is touching its 13-day MA, which makes it interesting. Do as I say, not as I did (bought at 135 and 144). Pupule says: Buy small, if at all.

Crocs 57. The stock is trading at 23 times next year's earnings. Compare that to Under Armor, which trades at 50 times. The only reason, and this is my gut feeling, that CROX isn't above 60 is that there is extreme enthusiasm for the Co's great fundamentals and growth on one hand, and extreme pessimism and hatred of the products on the other. Practically every day there's blogger or columnist who scribes his immense hatred of the poofy, hole-ridden Cayman sandals. Never mind the Co's robust future. Just blind hatred. That's why it's taking Crocs more time to ride up than it really should. Power to the patient. The stock is trading at its 13-day MA. Pupule says: Buy small.

Garmin 106. One of my fantasies is buy all the Garmin shares I possibly can, stuff them into a white pillowcase, fall asleep, and then wake up with an extra pillowcase filled with cool Garmin GPS stuff and hard cash. The stock jumped 2.4% today. I keep waiting for a bargain, but the stock drifts above its 13-day MA. Pupule says: Keep waiting.

Research in Motion 83. For a moment (yesterday), RIMM traded at its 13-day moving averages. Today, up nearly 1% and above the MA again. Pupule says: Wait.

Baidu 227. August 16. BIDU traded at 161, below its 13- and 50-day MA. It took the stock just three sessions to explode over both averages. It hasn't touched them since. Today's 4.1% run doesn't help. Can't say I'm surprised. As the U.S. economy slows, more and more investors and traders will look to China as a safe haven. Sorta safe. Pupule says: Wait, wait, wait.

Blue Nile 80. I picked up a few shares of the world's favorite online jewelry company today. I had a buy order on Friday at $75.50, but I pulled it when there were some complications in my trading account. Well, I regret it now. And yet, at 80, NILE is trading at its 13-day MA (and above the 50-day averages). All that insider selling kept the stock half buried for the past week. Funny how you can find jewels by digging a little. Pupule says: Buy small.

Chipotle Mexican Grill 103. My job took me to a press conference at a new place in Waikiki called Senor Frog's yesterday. I wasn't planning to stay afterward, but the food was free, the company was good, and man, it was worth it. Senor Frog's has only two U.S. locations, with plans to open another in Las Vegas. Other locations include Cancun. There's a pattern here, isn't there? If CMG is as good as Senor Frog's, I might be a believer. From what I know, CMG is more of a fast-food style than Senor Frog's, making fast, fresh Mexican food better than anyone. Anyway, CMG the stock was below its 13-day averages yesterday. Today, with the 3% bump up, the stock is above the MA. Pupule says: Wait.

CNOOC Ltd. 127. This stock is all over creation, goofier than a penny stock if you look at the chart. I still lament the major discount of a month ago, when CEO traded as low as 92 — below its 200-day MA. At 127 (up 2.8% today), it is way too expensive. Pupule says: Wait.

Flowserve 70. Up 1.9% today, now touching its 50-day MA. This stock has struggled and struggled for respect. Though its fundamentals and growth numbers are as good as most of my A- picks, the stock has closed above its 13-day MA only once since August 8. Pupule says: Strong buy.

Google 521. Another stock that can't get the motor started for long. Up 1.3% today, still trading within its 13-day MA. Will Google lose in China? That question should be banned. Pupule says: Buy.

Nintendo 57. In a rut for two whole months now. Why? Weak dollar. Strong yen. The stock doubled between November and June. Blah blah blah. Try out the Wii. This baby will sell like hotcakes, pancakes, wedding cakes, cake with coconut frosting, fudge syrup and a cherry on top, to boot. The DS is addicting. It is a legal drug that, unlike the Wii, can be carried near and far. I still think The Sims™ is coming to the Wii sooner than later. The stock is at its 13-day MA, the Co said last month that expanded production is not possible (yeth, that sucketh, I know), and the Co still won't allow the shares in Tokyo to be sold in regular increments. A minimum buy of Nintendo stock on the Tokyo Stock Exchange is 100 shares, or $41,000. Oh well. Pupule says: Buy small.

Potash 89. Up 2.1% today. Damn, did anyone really know that a fertilizer stock would be ballistic like this? This is a pre-split 267. Holy crapoli. At this price, the stock is above its MA. Pupule says: Wait.

Under Armor 62. Down a skosh (-0.37%) today. With a forward P/E of 50, seems like nobody is willing to fork up for the expensive price of the stock. UA is trading below its 13-day MA now, trending toward its 50-day MA. Of all the A- picks, I'm least bullish on UA, which has a history of hit-and-miss execution on earnings. Seems like a logical buyout for Nike. How about a merger with Crocs and their secret-recipe sensation Croslite? That would give Nike a serious run for its money. Pupule says: Buy.

Best buys

Appleholic unapologetic

My name is Pupule Paul. I am an Appleholic. I am not only an Appleholic, my portfolio is overweight in AAPL. If my portfolio were apples and oranges, we'd be talking about many apples and maybe half an orange. It's that bad. And it may not change real soon.

See, if I venutre out in this crapcrazy market any time soon, it'll be only to buy A grade stocks. Though I like my five A graders, I actually have shares of only two: AAPL and CROX. Am I a fricking hypocrite? Probably so. Until I own pieces of Amazon, Garmin and Research in Motion, I cannot defend myself from any accusation in that vein. I won't try to own all my A graders and A- graders, though. That would give me a portfolio of 14 stocks. A bit too many, though I am just a teeny bit long BIDU and UA, the latter mostly for my UA-worshipping nephew.

FLS is definitely still a strong buy, and its more than likely NILE will still be a buy. I'll look over my A and A- grade stock charts tonight. For now, back to work.

Where does the maze lead us?

Subprime mortgages down the toidy. Job reports reflect major economic slowdown. Are things really as bad as they seem?

Unemployment is 4.5% and growth may slow to 2%. Meanwhile, growth in China is 11.9%. Hmm...

I'm far from being an alarmist, and though I refrained from buying today, sniffing around for bargains is never a fruitless pursuit. Though several of my fundamentally sound growth favorites — A and A- grade stocks — are at reasonable prices, I'm going to wait until Monday at the earliest to enter. If there's another dip early Monday, my spider-sense will be tingling.

Here's to the hunt.

Apple 131. Yesterday, it was the iPhone price cut. Today, the jobs report. In just three days, AAPL has sunk from 145 to an intra-day low today of 130. A shortie's paradise. At 131, AAPL is below its one-year 13- and 50-day simple and exponential moving averages. Pupule says: Buy small, wait for more discounting.

Amazon 84. Even with the dip, AMZN is trading far above its moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.

Crocs 56. Actually, 56.92. Since its blowout Q2 earnings report and raised guidance, CROX has traded mostly in the 55-60 range, but the market's vulnerabilities have opened the stock up to major dips. At 56, CROX is at its 13-day moving averages, but patience could reap bargain prices. Pupule says: Buy small and be patient.

Garmin 105. The stock came down and touched its 13-day MA today (102), but at 105 is a skosh too high. Love the Co, but the stock isn't in line yet. Pupule says: Wait.

Research in Motion 80. The Blackberry Cult makes more and more sense to me, yes, me ... a guy who didn't have a cellphone until 1999 (work requirement). I didn't had a cellphone with photo capability until a few months ago, and I still haven't touched an iPhone or any other newfangled fancy thingamajig. (I can't believe that I walked into the Apple store last week and didn't even look at an iPhone.) And yet, with everything that the Crackberry can do, I can understand the addiction. Beats carrying around a PC. As for the stock, it now touches its 13-day averages. Pupule says: Buy small, wait for big discounts.

Baidu 213. With the U.S. economy slowing to a snail's pace, China is obviously the place to be. However, at 213, BIDU is too pricey. Far above its moving averages, but trending closer. Pupule says: Wait.

Blue Nile 75. The insider selling has compounded the stock's problems. I'm still bullish based on the company's growth rates and fundamentals, as well as its first-mover position in the online jewelry pocket. At 75, NILE is at a major discount, far below its 13-day MA and almost below its 50-day averages. Pupule says: Strong buy.

Chipotle Mexican Grill 101. Stock is now touching its 13-day averages, far above 50-day MA. Pupule says: Wait.

CNOOC Ltd. 122. The stock barely moved despite today's 250-point drop on the Dow. At 122, much too pricey, well above all its moving averages. If you got in at 92-110 in mid-August, you are a genius. Pupule says: Wait, wait, wait.

Flowserve 69. Pumps and meters are not sexy, and that's the only reason why this brilliant company is trading at its 50-day MA, and far below its 13-day MA. Pupule says: Strong buy.

Google 519. Recent gains have evaporated, but the overall picture is bright. China. Cellphones. Cellphones in China. The Chinese rely on cellphones for almost all their internet access. Google isn't beloved by citizens of the Middle Kingdom, so the Co simply BUYS the love. It is working. The stock is trading between its 13- and 50-day MA. Pupule says: Buy cautiously, conservatively.

Nintendo 58. The stock was between its 13- and 50-day MA for a couple of days. Not now. At 58, NTDOY.PK is above its averages. Pupule says: Wait.

Potash 87. The stock is finally back to earth, sorta. At 86, POT is touching its 13-day MA. Pupule says: Buy small.

Under Armor 63. One of the few stocks in the green today. At 63, UA is scraping its 13-day MA, well above its 50-day MA. Forward P/E is 50, compared to CROX's 23. Guess which stock I prefer? Pupule says: Buy cautiously.

Today's best buys

Bargain Bin shopping time

It is nearly mid-afternoon (1:30 pm Eastern time) on a deceptively quiet afternoon in the marketplace. Do you know where your stocks are? It's time for another look at the bargain bin and see if any of my A and A- grade stock picks happen to be there.

Apple 134. AAPL is down 11 points off its recent high, 22 points above its mortage meltdown low of three weeks ago. Four huge days up were met by the selloff yesterday and today, triggered by the Co's announcement of lower iPhone prices, but mostly (I think) a lot of profit-taking. Yesterday's volume was major (83 million shares), but today pullback is on just 42 million so far. Now that the stock has dropped close to its 13-day simple and exponential moving averages, selling will dry up soon enough. The iPod Touch is a whole new realm of techno ecstacy. It will be quite a merry Christmas this year. Pupule says: Wait a little more.

Amazon 84. On a roll, up for a fourth day in a row. Well off its high of 88 and far above its moving averages. Intriguing to see how much and how soon AMZN will make inroads in the Middle Kingdom. Pupule says: Wait, wait, wait.

Crocs 57. Downgraded to 'hold' by Zacks today, the stock is up 3.3% anyway. Yesterday, CROX traded at a low of 54.48, well below its 13-day moving averages. Today's gain means the stock is right at its 13-day averages. Pupule says: Buyable, but not a bargain.

Garmin 106. I keep waiting for this baby to pull back to a decent price, but it just won't. Trading at an all-time high now, but decreasing volume says that GRMN may be ready for a breather. Pupule says: Worth waiting for.

Research in Motion 83. Two days of declines were met with today's fractional gain (so far). trading above its 13-day MA. Pupule says: Wait.

Baidu 219. Uh-uh. Today's miniscule pullback in China's favorite search engine is on much lower volume (after two days of major upside volume.) BIDU is a trader's fantasy, an investor's temptation. Pupule says: Wait.

Blue Nile 79. Insider selling has pissed off some longs and fed the bears. Here, NILE is well below its 13-day MA and near its 50-day MA. After significant volume on two down days (Tuesday and yesterday), today's minor gains come on mediocre volume. I'm not convinced the selloff is done, but I wouldn't be shy either. Pupule says: Buy.

Chipotle Mexican Grill 104. CMG is pulling back, but the heights here are still dizzying. Pupule says: Wait.

CNOOC Ltd. 122. For so long, CEO was available at true bargain prices. From August 10 to 22, the stock traded below its 13-day MA, and on several of those days, was below its 50-day MA. Now it's just too expensive even without today's 2.5% gain. Pupule says: Wait.

Flowserve 71. FLS is trading below its 50-day SMA, still a decent price. Pupule says: Not a bargain, but the price is right.

Google 523. GOOG is down more than 4 bucks (less than 1%) so far today, but the gains of the two previous days leave the stock above all moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.

Nintendo 55. Today, NTDOY.PK is trading up at about 58, which leaves the stock right at its 13-day moving averages. Yesterday's price was better, of course. Pupule says: Buy small, if anything.

Potash 89. Pricey here. POT hasn't been a bargain since August 21. Pupule says: Wait.

Under Armor 63. Short interest in UA was 50% just one month ago, but is down to "only" 32%. Today's 2.1% pullback brings the stock below its 13-day moving averages. Pupule says: Buy cautiously, not in bulk.

Today's best buys

Another pullback, another opportunity?

Traders are in fat city, while investors are in another sea of red. The best place to be is in cash, unless your skills are good enough to trade some while sitting on a long position.

What the FOMC talks about, whatever is read in its minutes, whatever fear there is about no fed rate cut ... until I hear that we're doomed to a recession, it's all fluctuation.

If this is another buying opportunity, then my A and A- grade stocks are worth a look. They all have solid fundamentals and excellent growth. The market has tended to sell off for days at a time, so I don't expect to find any bargains. Not yet.

AMZN down 3.1%, now 76.22
Here, the stock has returned in the vicinity of its 13- and 50-day simple and exponential moving averages, but not in an ideal range. Getting close, though. Pupule says: Wait.

AAPL down 4.1%, now $126
The stock is in a fairly good place now, right in the midst of its SMA and EMA. Could AAPL fall to $111 as it did two weeks ago? Of course. This is a stupid market, but one that must be respected. I'd go in cautiously, if anything. Pupule says: Buy.

CROX down 4.4%, now $57
Since dipping to $44 two Thursdays ago, the stock has zoomed up with the best of the growth babies. This is the seventh session in a row that CROX finished above its SMA and EMA. Even with today's pullback, best to be patient. I love my Crocs, but it is undeniably volatile. Be a smart shopper. Pupule says: Wait.

GRMN down 5.4%, now $96
Down four of the past five sessions. Stock now trades below its 13-day MAs. Worth watching closely. Buyable here, but a bargain could be around the corner. Pupule says: Buy.

RIMM down 4.8%, now $77
Trading just above its MAs. Patience. Pupule says: Wait.

BIDU down 5.7%, now $199
Nice pullback on slightly lower volume today. Stock is still above MAs, but moving in the right direction for a smart shopper. Pupule says: Wait.

CMG down 2.4%, now $97
Nice. The stock is now below its 13-day MAs. Avocado and dairy prices be damned, this Co is great. Pupule says: Buy.

CEO down 8.3%, now $113
That was quick. The stock was up to a mid-day high of $125 yesterday, and traders took their profits today. Can't blame them. The stock was $92 two weeks ago. Now CEO is below its 50-day SMA and moving closer to its other MAs. Inch in slowly. Pupule says: Buy.

FLS down 1.9%, now $69
Despite blowout earnings, the stock never moved above its MAs when the market bounced back last week. Trading right within its MAs now. Pupule says: Buy.

GOOG down 1.3%, now $506
Like FLS, Google wasn't hit hard today. Like FLS, the stock has a lid on it and hasn't moved above its MAs recently. Not exactly a bargain, but a fair price here. Pupule says: Buy.

NTDOY.PK down 2.7%, now $57
Coming back down to its MAs. Watch closely. Pupule says: Wait.

POT down 3.2%, now $82
More like $82.98. Starting to return to its MAs, stock is now touching its 13-day SMA and EMA. Pupule says: Buy.

UA down 1.4%, now $62
Plunging deeper, now below its 13-day MAs, but well above its 50-day MAs. Careful here. Inch in. Pupule says: Buy.

No bargains left, except for . . .

It's official in Quarryville. All of my A and A- grade stock picks are out of buying range.

From Apple to RIMM, Baidu to Under Armor, they're all on fire and too hot to touch. No, wait. There is one ... no, make that two stocks that are still trading within 13- and 50-day simple and exponential moving averages (one-year chart).

FLS 70. Flowserve, with its blowing Q2 earnings, has been somewhat slow to follow the bull run of the past week. In fact, FLS sat at 69, with barely a gain, for almost the entire day. The stock is 15% up from its bottom last Thursday, but trading below its 13- and 50-day SMA and EMA. Still a steal at this price. Pupule says: Strong buy.

GOOG 515. Even with today's modest improvement, the stock is still trading within its moving averages. There's so much action in and around the company, from wireless advertising to China inroads, that I really don't know why the stock has been relatively stagnant. It is up from the low of 480 last week, but my guess is that the big boys and retail buyers are still punishing the Co for missing Q2 estimates. So the Co spent a little more to hire quality employees in China (and elsewhere). This is good for those of us who want shares on the cheap. They might remain cheap until Q3 earnings come out. Pupule says: Buy.

Blue Nile was buyable until today, when it ran up nearly 5% to 86. I hate to miss the boat on this great young Co, but patience is key. I'll wait for a pullback. And cross my fingers.

Under Armor had a slight gain today, but its moving averages are starting to catch up. At 65, UA is well off its all-time high of 73, but today's volume was extremely light. I'll wait for the stock rather than chase it.

If Bank of America's rescue of Countrywide Financial yesterday after the market wasn't affirmation enough, I don't know what else would be. Next week should be interesting. The market is relatively calm for a change, but if the street pours into tech stocks, the gadgets might soar again. Then I might be wishing I'd picked up some Garmin and Rimm, and more Apple.