Showing posts with label Suntech. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Suntech. Show all posts

Friday, August 3, 2007

Forbes fetes Focus Media

While investors and observers wait on baited breath over the ordeal at Focus Media, at least one publication is bullish on the stock.

Earlier in the week, Shlomo Reifman of Forbes.com listed Focus Media as a strong China pick in terms of EPS growth and forward P/E. With EPS growth at 37% and a forward P/E of 23, FMCN rated well with a group that includes China Petroleum and Chemical (SNP), PetroChina (PTR), Suntech Power (STP) and The9 (NCTY).

Not bad comany, but the article won't do much to alleviate the nerves of FMCN longs. The stock has fallen from a high of $52 in early June to $39.

Monday, July 30, 2007

Solar on fire from FSLR to YGE

The solar kids don't even know a storm just passed.

They just keep running around in glee. First Solar, with questions hovering over whether it'll make earnings expectations of 7-8 cents per share, finished strong today. While I slept (5-10 a.m. Hawaii time), the stock languished around $110 for much of the session. Then, with two hours left, FSLR went crazy and climbed to a $120 close.

With earnings due out tomorrow, did somebody leak something? Perhaps drawing a residual effect, tiny Yingli Green Energy moved up 6.4% to $18.16. YGE has spent the early part of the day up about 20-40 cents before making the move for a gain of $1.09.

Shares of YGE were at $16 just two sessions ago. Will it pull back or trade with its sector?

I think of First Solar as overpriced, especially after today's 8% run to $120. This Co doesn't even have more revenues than tiny Yingli. What FSLR has is a unique product and major financial muscle, i.e. the Walton family, and scored a $1 billion secondary offering recently. That's clout. Still, I might step into the Yingli Green House simply because of the sector's heat and Yingli's location. China is spending big on alternative energy.

A buy into Yingli would be counter, in a way, to my small holding in Hoku Scientific. The latter has a non-binding contract with a Yingli competitor, big boy Suntech. I like the fundamental numbers of STP very well. STP traded up 1% to $39.89.

Can FSLR run up again tomorrow before earnings? After trading sideways since July 9, today's big move on strong volume is clearly bullish. Hmm...

At this point, STP looks like a safe investment compared to its peers in the sector, while YGE has a lot of upside. I can't let go of FSLR though, because of its "thin film" technology. Cheaper to make, not quite as efficient as silicon ... but profitable.

How much so? Tomorrow's earnings report awaits.

Pupule Paul has no position in these stocks.

Thursday, July 12, 2007

Another milestone for Hoku

The past 28 days have been marked with milestones for Hoku Scientific.

Today was just another one, as HOKU closed at $13.70, an all-time high. The difference this week is that there has been no new news. Volume has picked up again, but not in the same force as it was in June when new contracts were announced.

In other words, the stock is stabilizing and investors are capitalizing. It's fresh new ground for the pioneers of Hawaii's most impressive growth company in years.

Despite the doubts of media — including Jim Cramer — and a horde of online bears, Hoku has secured $1.2 billion in contracts for its clean energy products for the next two years. Yes, the Co is still in its infancy and its plant in Pocatello, Idaho won't be completed for more than a year.

But this little Co could turn into the giant of all Hawaii companies. The stock? Investors have to be pleased. On June 12, HOKU traded at $4.50.

On June 14, HOKU traded as high as $7.95 after a 10-year, $678 million deal was sealed with Suntech Power (China). Say goodbye to the 4s and 5s.

On June 20, the Co signed a seven-year, $175 million contract with a subsidiary of Solar-Fabrik AG (Germany). Say aloha to the 6s, 7s and 8s. The next day, HOKU set another all-time high, trading at $10.14 before closing at $9.60 on 26 million shares in volume.

Nice.

Two trading sessions later, on June 25, HOKU skyrocketed again as new investors and daytraders stampeded into the stock. HOKU hit a new high of $11.67 and closed at $10.75 on a whopping 33 million shares.

The $10 level, with a ton of new shareholders, proved to be a solid floor for the stock. HOKU traded up to $12.80 — a fourth new high in just 12 days — and closed at $12.08 on lower volume (22 million shares).

From $4.50 to $12.80 in nine sessions? That's a gain of 284 percent. Investors certainly like those contracts.

The ensuing two weeks saw Hoku's stock level out, reaching a mid-day low of $9.84 on July 2 as volume withered up. Merely the calm before another perfect storm.

On July 6, HOKU had its biggest volume since hitting its high and closed at $11.13 on 10 million shares. Say goodbye to the 10s.

The next day, investors continued to pile back on as Hoku closed at $12.65 — including a mid-day all-time high of $12.97 — on 11 million shares.

Two days later, on July 9 — this past Monday — HOKU rose to $12.73 mid-day for another all-time high. It closed at $11.90 on 11 million shares.

Yesterday, yes, another high. HOKU hit $13.66 mid-day and closed at $13.23 on increased volume of 11 million shares.

Today? Volume was down to 7 million shares — still hefty considering HOKU's 11-million float — as the PPS hit another high at $14.39 mid-day.

For investors on the sidelines, waiting for a chance to get back in at $9 or $10, the boat has sailed off. Even $11 seems like a longshot. The only obstacles in the stock's way would be a delay in the construction of the Pocatello facility and a seachange in the one of the most bullish markets of all time.

Why so much cyberspace for HOKU in Pupule's blog? This is timeless. Watching a baby giant take its first steps is more than a passing moment. It is to be treasured. Even for those of us on the sideline.

Disclaimer: Pupule Paul has no position in HOKU.