Remorse in the rear view (updated)

8:09 am (Hawaii) It was premarket and I was in bed. The alarm went off, I check my sole position, FAZ. It was down in the 24.30s, not long after I'd gotten back in at 24.76 (the day before). I knew it was higher risk than usual since the financials (and JPM) had been beaten to a pulp for such a long time. The bounce had to come at some point, and this was it. I got out at 24.31 and took a small loss.

From there, FAZ eked its way higher, all the way to 24.87 several minutes ago. Now trading at 24.62. I haven't turned the TV on all day, but obviously, the JPMorgan shareholders meeting, the scuttle about possible investigation by Capitol Hill, etc are having an effect. JPM had rallied to 37.27, but is now back at 36.78. Is it a clean bounce or a dead cat bounce?

More annoying than frustrating, it's the trades I didn't make in GRPN and GSVC that I'll remember more. I got in GRPN yesterday at 13.30 and got out at 13.56.

Decided not to re-enter GRPN even though it seemed highly probable that the increase in Facebook IPO share price would have a ripple effect. That on top of the earnings beat and heavy short covering. GRPN opened with a huge gap up at 14.93, and has sold off since to 13.07. Still a 1.3% gain from yesterday's close, but all the after hours trading action has come and gone. This was 9.92 at the close on Friday, so there's going to be plenty of range trading.

GSVC and SVVC are pure beneficiaries of FB's bullish news. GSVC closed yesterday at 17.89, opened at 18.69 and has stayed up here. Now trading at 18.88, up 5.5%. SVVC is up 5.1%. This should've been easy money, but I was overly cautious.

Indices are barely green, but it wouldn't matter for the FB plays. AAPL is trying to stay above 560. No strength there. Today is a chance for bulls to reclaim the market. It's not happening.

9:17 am Back in FAZ at 24.96. Sure, it sucked selling in premarket way back at 24.31, but that's the past.  Moving on. AAPL cratered, as did much of the market, in the past 15 minutes or so, and FAZ began to take off. The Eurozone circus is too much and any big money that thought it would stay long today has pulled out and run for shelter. Can't blame 'em.

FAZ at 25.13, not assuming it stays here or goes higher. Ready to jump with my little parachute any time.

9:25 am Out of FAZ at 25.11, +0.15 per share, small gain. Now FAZ is 25.17. Timing...

10:08 am Traded FAZ for a quickie again, tiny loss. Would've been better off holding that buy at 24.96. I re-entered FAZ at 25.28, goes against my intuition, but today's closing momentum was decidedly negative thanks to Euro circus and continuing lack of confidence stateside. Also got back in GSVC at 18.35 after it sold off from 18.97 in the final hour.

Facebook roller coaster (updated)

12:07 pm (Hawaii) After the negativity from mainstream media last week on Facebook, two sources are saying FB will "increase its IPO price range to $35-40." One is CNNMoney's Maureen Farrell. See her tweet here.

That info was posted a few hours ago and I didn't see it. Otherwise I might have jumped back on board GSVC, which is at 18.20 after hours. (bid 17.93, ask 18.20.)

Here's MarketWatch saying basically the same thing about "large orders from retail investors." See the info via MW via IPO Botique. 

SVVC is practically unbuyable AH too: bid 28.87, ask 38.39. The move in GRPN plus the FB news is creating momentum, and the shorts are under fire.

Update 3:18 pm Kara Swisher reports that FB will debut at "$34 to $38."

Official pricing will be done on Thursday, she adds. 

GRPN fireworks show (updated 11:41 am)

10:19 am GRPN beat estimates and the stock spurted to from 11.76 (closing price) to 13.47 in 4 minutes. The Fibonacci retrace for that range is 12.86, and GRPN dropped to 12.72. Now it's at 13.16.

Too bad for me I broke price discipline and jumped in at 13.30 instead of waiting for the bounce (StockGuy22 is a master at that technique). The good thing is, momentum is on the stock's side for a change. This is strictly a short-term trade, definitely no gimmie since it's already up 33% for the day.

The effect of GRPN's beat is tough to measure right now. LNKD, SVVC and GSVC trade very lightly after hours, and the spread is enormous. But it's not a bad guess that they'll gap higher in the morning.

Update 10:53 am Here comes the pre-Fast Money move on GRPN, back to 13.30. Could pop a little more or fizzle depending on what the FM panel says. I expect a mixed bag from them. Nobody really likes the company's business model, but short-term momo is with the stock.

Update 11:07 am GRPN conference call underway, stock hit 13.44. Nearly sold half at 13.23 before the call. Hear it here. They've added more customers in Q1 than 2011 Q4, cut marketing costs big time. margins are 7% compared to a loss previously. They also have $1.2B in cash money. And 75% revenue growth in N. America. (info from Brian Bolan (@bbolan1)

GRPN now at 13.50. Looks like the shorts and pessimists have to acknowledge a better business model now.

Upate 11:12 am More info via Brian Bolan (@bbolan1) ... GRPN has added board members from AXP and Deloitte - deep financial and operating experience ... 30% of deals were done on mobile compared to 25% four months ago ... now does 1.5M purchases ... high online satisfaction survey, strong rollout of new merchant systems (Groupon rewards) - 2,500 merchants signed up ... more than 100K unique merchants in the quarter ... intl on a different technology platform, which is why the growth in NA was better ... first tech initiative underway ...

With 8.4% short interest, the covering is well underway, as well.

Update 11:41 am Got skittish and sold the position at 13.56 as it dipped (+0.26/share). Gave up a lot of paper profit after the run to 13.80, but I got a small profit on a quick trade, cannot complain about a + trade.

Always tempting to hold an earnings winner, but this run from 9.90 (yesterday's close) is massive and there will be fluctuations as traders take profits and new retail dives in. I'd rather play the swings than hold from 13.30. If GRPN is at 20 soon, then I'm wrong and it would be better to just buy and hold. But if it bounces between 13 and 15 all summer, it's a nice way to play the social trade.

Friday flutter (updated)

2:53 am (Hawaii) AAPL has slid from 567 to 563+ in premarket. FAZ remains above 24, but there's been no move back to 24.50, which is where it was in afterhours trading yesterday. Less than an hour before the opening bell, 67% of my main watch list is red, albeit many of them don't trade at all before the bell.

Various scenarios could play out.

A. The market is long overdue for a bounce, and the JPMorgan debacle simply gives it a chance to capitulate (barf out remaining toxins) for the near term, bottom out and move higher

B. The market absorbs the JPMorgan-induced fears and refuses to crater, but also refuses to rally. A lingering fever with flu symptoms, so to speak

C. The machines are ordered to trade higher immediately, as has been the case in the mornings recently, before selling off in the afternoon.

C appears possible especially since it's a Friday and holding anything long over the weekend is not going to be a popular strategy.

There is, of course, a D. That would be a flush-out with the opening bell that stays down for the count through the entire day, and additional selling near the closing bell as traders run for the hills with Europe in flux and domestic financials unable (or unwilling) to guarantee that there will be no further JPMorgan-like screwups leading to losses in the beeeeeeeeeellions.

I'm not married to any of these or other possibilities. Must lock in and capture profits. Period.

Still long FAZ. For now.

Update 2:51 am Interesting that an NBC host is saying this morning that Dimon is still upset with the White House, yadayadayada ... seriously. After the environment that allowed Wall St to rake in huge profits and still get bailed out, that's ludicrous.

This can't end well for most of the banksters, though I doubt the bosses on top ever do time in lockdown.

Update 4:18 am out of FAZ at 23.48, a loss of 0.18 per. Small, small loss. But that's not relevant. What's relevant is I didn't pull the sell trigger while it sat there hovering around 24.12 after the opening bell. I was not prepared to see it go from 24.30+ just before the opening bell to 24.10+ at the bell. Plenty of sellers, should've anticipated that. 

But I contemplated adding more. I felt 24 was going to be a new floor instead of sticking to price discipline. So instead of a decent profit, it turned into a small (paper) profit. And when it couldn't hold 24, it was a nosedive to 23.60. I held through a couple of dips below 23.50 and finally got out. The indices are turning green, which means the whole JPMorgan mess didn't spur a major selloff, but may have completed (temporarily) the recent downturn. 

It's annoying to say the least. But JPM has held above 37, AAPL is back to 570 and FAS, which was below 90 earlier, is now at 93.20. 

FAZ is at 23.32 now, still up 2% for the day. But until more banks confess their derivative sins, buyers will keep pouring in. Maybe. 

So, it seems A and C are still in play. The sellers are out of product and buyers are waiting eagerly (A). Or the machines are buying up the market and will sell it off in the afternoon (C).

Nowhere does it seem possible the market heads lower, not if it can gulp down JPMorgan's mess and move up.

Update 11:15 am Indices were green for a majority of the day, then sold off toward the close. Nasdaq finished barely positive (+0.01%) while Dow was -34 (-0.27%) and S&P was -4.6 (-0.34%). Essentially, they were flat.

Business Insider reported that Fitch downgraded JPMorgan, which is interesting. Why Fitch and nobody else? How much fear is there of Dimon and his minions? People may despise the banksters, but he is what he is and he's usually fantastically good at it in a way that requires doses of finesse, outright thuggery and charisma. In other words, he would've been a hell of a mafia boss.

Mike Khow of Options Action suggested that ZNGA is one way to play the Facebook IPO. Said that Zynga is trying to steer its users to the company's website, to capture more ad revenue, etc. Still not touching that. Just like GSVC, which had a huge gap down to 16 today (from 18+) and rallied to 17+. It sold off on ... what? JPMorgan news? Are you kidding me?

Maybe I get a few shares of GSVC the next time it touches 16. But with FB so focused on its own game (yeah, Zuckerberg and his hoodie were a basic F-You to Wall St), it clearly didn't help FB plays like GSVC and SVVC much this week. They both were up big already this year, so buying GSVC at 18+ (I've done it) is an act of greed, to a degree.

But, the day is about done and the lesson is clearer than ever: Take profits quickly. As soon as I held FAZ more than overnight, for more than a few hours (or minutes), it loses footing and falls through the ice. During the latest run (in the past 24 hours), I've owned it twice and had two very small losses. Both times, I had decent paper profits.

Back in FAZ before the closing bell. We're only 1/3 of the way through May and there's no clear catalyst in sight for the rest of the month. If Europe's financial disaster gets a little fixed up over the weekend, I'm ready with some gunpowder to load up long. But Greece doesn't fix anything soon with that cast of characters.

Update 11:31 am AAPL ran from 561+ to 574+ this morning during the post-JPM rally. Then it sold off back to 566+. I still anticipate a pullback to 546 (Fibonacci retrace). Apple had a little iCloud leak/peak today, and there was talk on CNBC about the Apple TV, a supposedly leak from Foxconn in China.

Facebook Tree

A look at Facebook-related plays. Are they good for a long hold or near-term trade? Both? No answers here. Just information. My take: neither GSVC or SVVC are for the long term. Remember CMGI during the Internet bubble? But as a quick trading vehicle, could be in play.

GSV Capital (GSVC)
I'm instantly skittish when it comes to stocks that have no numbers to work with (re: Yahoo statistics), but these guys have a cut of Facebook and another cut of Twitter.
News: Seeking Alpha updates
Yahoo News: Ascendiant Capital Markets initiates coverage (May 2 2012)
Helix Investment Management: Invest in Facebook, Twitter (Dec 8 2011)

Firsthand Technology Value Fund (SVVC)
SVVC owns more shares of Facebook than GSVC, but has already done a secondary offering that deflated the stock. Does this mean they're done with more offerings? Or is there another on the way? Don't know.
News: Seeking Alpha updates
Yahoo News: SVVC completes initial investment in Twitter (May 2 2012)
Evans Capital: Time to cover short position (Apr 19 2012)
Stockerblog: Funds that own Facebook stock (Mar 30 2012)

Zynga (ZNGA)
News: Seeking Alpha updates

Facebook (FB)
Story by MarketWatch about Facebook's IPO, privacy issues.