Northwest Bio takes a beating, Skins steps up

Bargain hunters are on the move.

The bargain-basement shoppers are never in short supply, and neither is their prey. Even in the midst of a blazing-hot summer, a 100-point down day on the Dow reverse in the last 30 minutes and became a 40-point down day.

A stroll through message boards inevitably yields a sidewalk salesman or two, carnival barkers extolling the virtues of their elixirs. Two days ago, you could find a pumper or two of Northwest Biotherapeutics on forums not devoted to NWBO.OB. True, the Co is the first to market with an immunotherapy treatment (for brain cancer) thanks to limited approval in Switzerland.


However, the limitations and the lack of clarity in terms of Northwest Bio's bottom line as a result of the approval are a mystery. So, the stock has fallen from $7.33 to a close of $3.15 today. That includes double-digit percentage drops in the past three sessions.

[Ed: The Co has stated that authorization for non-commercial use has granted in Switzerland, but that it would apply for marketing and commercialization of its treatment there by the end of the year.]

Six of the past seven sessions were down, and the most recent days are marked by lower volume since 3.9 million shares traded on NWBO's big day on July 9. With a float of only 4.17 million shares, it takes very little to boost or boot this stock, which is why today's volume of 508,000 shares brought NWBO down another 12 percent.

Even a press release from the Co denying any selloff by shareholders Toucan Capital or Toucan Partners hasn't stopped the slide.

Buyer beware. NWBO closed at $2.30 in the session prior to the Swiss news and established no real level of support beyond that day. Finding that floor is a gut-churning experience for Northwest Bio's longs.

Dendreon longs know the churn well. The stock dropped 12 cents (1.6 percent) to $7.41 today, With options expiry looming, DNDN has not had an up day since July 10. The visible support level has been $6.50. DNDN's last stock slump came between June 20-26, when it bottomed out at $6.51.

That was followed by five up days in the ensuing six on healthy volume. It's tempting, though, for longs to unload shares here out of sheer frustration. Maybe casting off a portion of shares would be a healthy compromise, at least for peace of mind. The SEC's "informal inquiry" into the Provenge clinical trials has yet to reveal any news positive or negative.

That's enough to unnerve most investors, but with Dendreon, only the hardiest of souls remain. Hardy or stubborn; I'm more of the latter, and I'm still holding my shares.

Hoku Scientific was up in six out of eight sessions, and hit an intra-day high of $14.55 on Monday. However, Monday was the start of a tumble for the stock, which closed at $12.51 today. In the same way HOKU bolted to a new high last week — descending volume on Wednesday (11.6 million shares), Thursday (7.1 million) and Friday (4.6 million) — this week's decline is relatively similar.

Volume has dropped each day: Monday, 4.7 million shares; Tuesday, 2.9 million; today, 2.5 million. Those are still hefty numbers considering HOKU's float of 11 million shares. This is the first string of three down days for the stock since Hoku announced its first polysilicon contract on June 13. Bears are have been feeding on the glut of optimism, but the decline in volume indicates that the stock is ready to level out sometime soon.

Skins Inc. is the tiniest of the companies I've explored recently. The Co has tantalized footwear fans with a slick marketing campaign, but angered investors by delaying the release of its product twice in the past year. Still, the stock keeps bouncing back up. SKNN.OB was up 11 cents to $1.83 today to end a four-session skid. However, volume was its lowest in eight trading days.

Momentum could resume as a major shoe show nears (July 30). Skins will be there. Enter at your own risk.

Disclaimer: Pupule Paul is long HOKU and DNDN.

Hoku taking a breather

As expected, at least by this pupule, shares of Hoku Scientific are pulling back today after another meteoric rise.

HOKU had reached an all-time high last week, but decreasing volume on Thursday and Friday gave some indication that buyers were running out of steam. Hoku hit a high of $14.55, buoyed by pre-market volume of 228,000 shares. However, they trade at $13.87 now, down 18 cents from Friday's close.

The stock could use a breather as the PPS consolidates at these new, lofty levels. Bears and bulls have had it out on this company for many months now. Bears point to the current state of the Co, with scant revenues and no facility constructed as of yet to build out polysilicon for solar energy companies from Germany to China.

Bulls, meanwhile, point to the Co's swift decision-making and finesse in handling partnership deals potentially worth $1.2 billion. The polysilicon facility is expected to be completed in Pocatello, Idaho, in the first half of 2009.

The most significant pullback for the stock in the past month has been 18 percent, which barely puts a dent in the overall gain. On June 12, HOKU traded at $4.50. Even with this morning's pullback, HOKU is up 308 percent since the first of two key polysilicon contracts were established.

Hoku's amazing run — the stock was at $2.60 to start the year — isn't necessarily done. Friday's volume was 4.3 million shares, down from Wednesday's 11.6 million. The strength of today's action could bolster the bear sentiment if volume is considerable on a down day. Conversely, a strong surge in volume to the plus side could be the fuel to spur any remaining bulls currently on the sideline.

Elsewhere, Apple shares are zooming upward into new territory again. Despite a flat market — the Nasdaq is down by a fraction of a percentage point — buyers are converging on AAPL now that the iPhone is proving to be a hit and earnings are coming around the corner.

Revenue from iPhone sales won't impact the bottom line for second-quarter earnings, but Apple could announce what the impact of the June 29 release could mean for Q3. Lacking any foreseeable bad news, there appears nothing to keep AAPL shares tied down.

Apple traded to $139.98 in the first 30 minutes of the session. AAPL is currently at $138.52, up 81 cents, on 11.5 million shares traded.

Two more A- stock picks, Baidu and Research in Motion, are also up early in the day. BIDU was up $1.74 to $214.56. RIMM was up $4.57 to $232.09.

Crox, Google and Foster Wheeler were also up moderately. Spartan Motors and Amazon were the only A- stock picks that were down early.

Falling again: Shares of Northwest Biotherapeutics took another hit in the first hour today, dropping 57 cents to $4.35. The stock had rocketed to $7.33 a week ago after announcing that Switzerland had granted the Co approval for limited use of its immunotherapy treatement for brain cancer.

NWBO.OB fell for the next few days, hitting a mid-week low of $4.30, the rallying on low volume to $5.10. The stock is trading at $4.49, nearly double from its pre-announcement price per share.

Has Northwest Bio bottomed out?

Google Finance still has no financial data on it.

Yahoo Finance has some. No chart, though.

No matter if you are a bull or bear, credit is due to Northwest Biotherapeutics. This tiny company, which began the week with a $29 million market cap, is more than a blip on the radar now.

With limited approval in Switzerland to make its immunotherapy vaccine available to brain cancer patients, NWBO.OB is on the map. After taking a major bump down after running up 294% to $7.33, NWBO now sits at $4.20 with a pullback of 42% from the high.

Monday's humongous run was tempered by selloffs on Tuesday and today. Mind you, volume went from 3.9 million shares on Monday to 2.9 mil on Tuesday. Today? A mere 1.2 million shares traded — still a significant number considering the float is a measly 4.17 million. The current PPS is more than double what it was after Friday's close ($2.10).

The decrease in volume may indicate that the selloff is nearly done, and perhaps NWBO has reached a nice, new bottom. The question now that the daytraders are filtering out, is how much is the Swiss deal going to be worth?

There no numbers to work with, but Wolfeman at Investor Village has put together a reasonable list of facts that breaks down the information as well as any.


Still, all the investing and trading are based on the news and speculation. Of course, there's no other headline that grabs attention like "First Cancer Vaccine available."

For biotech investors with an eye on the future — and Northwest Bio's vaccine will be marketed in this quarter — this is definitely a situation worth monitoring. Enter at your own risk.

Disclaimer: Pupule Paul has no position in NWBO.OB.

Just another dysfunctional day at Dendreon

This is the kid you love, the kid who has all the potential in the world.

Time and time again, though, he needs help. Someone has to bail him out, not literally. Not yet, anyway.

The good news for Dendreon today was that a late-session surge vaulted the PPS to $8.15, a 4.6% gain. Nice.

Then came the bad news. For those of us who caught the close but ignored after-hours trading, it was a body blow. News of the SEC's inquiry — informal, they say — regarding prostate cancer immunotherapy treatement Provenge scared off the weakest of hands. DNDN traded at $7.63 by the end of the day.

That's 16 cents lower than Monday's close.


It's the latest in the long, unpredictable history of Dendreon. Shareholders are, once again, feeling powerless to help. Only the most patient and optimistic are still in the stock.

Along with the SEC's inquiry, Dendreon announced that it received a letter from shareholders. The letter, addressed to the board of directors, requested immediate investigation and action against exeuctives who may have acted improperly after the FDA's advisory counsel approved Provenge in late March.

Whatever the case is with the SEC — there's no clear indication that it will be as "informal" as suggested — Dendreon may have more than a little scuffle ahead with angry shareholders who have filed lawsuits. If Dendreon execs have, indeed, gained financially by witholding vital information from shareholders, ugly won't begin to describe the train wreck.

Then again, those of us who are long Dendreon already expect the worst, and in fact, all of the worst-case possibilities are probably built into the stock already.

It's just that ... shareholders just want to breathe some air here, and Dendreon management shows no signs of providing an oxygen tank. Par for the course.

How bad is perception plus reality for shareholders? If Gold were fired tomorrow, the PPS would probably spike. Yet, even a dysfunctional family has better prospects if Daddy can just straighten out rather than be removed from the home.

Two days into the week, two days of major news. What more could happen tomorrow?

Disclaimer: Pupule Paul is still long DNDN.

Northwest Bio beats Dendreon to the punch

For those of you who are long Dendreon, today was either

a. disheartening, or

b. encouraging

I write this because a little-known Co called Northwest Biotherapeutics became the first to gain approval for a cancer vaccine today. Northwest Biotheraputics (NWBO.OB) announced early this morning that its Phase 1 (yes, that is not a typo) treatment for brain cancer has been approved for use in Q3 in Switzerland.

How is it that a Phase I treatment is already going to market in Europe, while Dendreon's Phase 3 Provenge sits idly with prostate-cancer patients waiting month after month, year after year?

Can it be that Northwest Biotheraputics simply has more finesse and maneuverability? Can it possibly be that Dendreon couldn't find a partner if it were the only boy at an all-girls school dance?

In other words, what the frick is going on here?


Northwest Biotherapeutics had a market cap of $29 million before today's session opened. (The Co is so small, Google Finance doesn't have a summary or quote price, though Yahoo has one.) After trading around $2 in recent days, the PPS spiked up at the open before bottoming around $2.50.

From that point on, NWBO.OB rocketed and finished at $7.33, a gain of 249%. Pink-sheet stocks don't trade in after hours, but there is almost absolute certainty that the stock will continue to climb.

European investors will get word of this news when the sun rises there. Media will also pick up the story. They'll learn that Northwest Bio not only has a treatment ready for market this quarter, but also has a treatment in the pipeline for other cancers. The tiny Co from Bothell, Wash. could trounce the bigger boys in Seattle. With all its eggs in one basket — prostate-cancer treatment Provenge — Dendreon could soon be left in the dust.

Full enrollment for Provenge Phase 3 trial 9902B may not be completed until next year, and the FDA clearly has its scopes set on shooting down Dendreon even if interim results are positive. Sure, the FDA is corrupt, but the game still plays on. The clock stops for no one.

Still, NWBO.OB is a risky stock to delve into. With a float of only 4.17 million shares, it's possible the continued rise in the PPS would make Dendreon's zany ride in March and April feel like slow motion. As quickly as the price goes up, however, it can come down. There's definitely risk in trading a stock like NWBO, but the good news is real.

For the Dendreons of the world, stockholders can only ponder and wonder, what the hell? What is it that Northwest Bio CEO Alton Boynton has that Dendreon's top brass does not? Before I leave you with a forecast of more doom and gloom, however, let's sit on the sunny side of the street. Maybe this will encourage CEO Mitchell Gold to pursue Europe with more vigor. If he has, as rumored, already turned down opportunities there in recent weeks, Northwest Bio's Great Leap Forward could prove to be a catalyst.

In other words, Dendreon's Board of Directors might pull their heads out of the sand and light a fire under Gold's okole. If a $29 million Co can do it, what's stopping Dendreon and its well-heeled (re: new slate of options) executives?

Gloom for longs? Yes. But the pressure is mounting. Good pressure.

Disclaimer: Pupule Paul is long DNDN and wishes he had been long NWBO.OB.