Apple Tree (May 6)

It's a sleepy, cool Sunday morning in the islands. Adding a video (and link) to this list from ZAGG. It's more of a promotional than anything objective, but it's worth a watch if you are long ZAGG. I didn't expect to be long after earnings, but the fundamentalist in me is winning the internal debate. It's the price action that's bizarro, and how that affects weak longs (me included) is a big issue.

Apple Tree

Broadcom (BRCM)

Cirrus Logic (CRUS)

News: Seeking Alpha updates

Qualcom (QCOM)

Elliott Gue: Much to like behind the numbers

Skullcandy (SKUL)

Fahad Kahlid: Chart by Opinterest (May 2 2012) Cool headsets. CFO quit recently. Never a good thing. 

Dr. Duru: Shorts pile on further after Skullcandy's CFO resigns (Apr 8 2012)

SKUL down big after today's earnings report. 

Skyworks Solutions (SWKS)

News: Seeking Alpha updates

Zagg Inc (ZAGG)

News: Seeking Alpha updates

ZAGG: CEO thanks customers (May 4 2012)

Yahoo: ZAGG Inc reports record first quarter financial results (May 3 2012)

Rupert Nicholson (Seeking Alpha): The stock that everybody should be considering (May 3 2012)

Nicholas Pardini (Seeking Alpha): Real numbers do not match reported earnings claims (May 3 2012)

Discount hunting (updated 10:58 am HST)

I want my price. Will these pull back just enough?

(Closing price to premarket high Fibonacci levels)
AAPL 595 (unlikely)
CRUS 24.45 (blowout earnings report yesterday after the bell)
FAZ 21.64 (possible)

FAZ trades on such light volume premarket. It's at 21.74 right now and could easily swing down to 21.64. It's up, I believe, on Europe weakness (as usual). I don't see AAPL dipping below 600. Jobless numbers were weak and barely affected the market, didn't harm AAPL one bit.

DGP and AGQ are green this morning, but not going there. Not today. Other "Apple tree" plays like BRCM, QCOM, SWKS are interesting. Keeping an eye on those.

Update 3:35 am (Hawaii) Holey moley, what a wacky, whacked OUT open. AAPL zoomed to 614+ two minutes before the bell, then fell to 611 after the open and below. FAZ sank all the way to 21.60 and has dropped below 21.50. It's cheap as I wanted, but I'm never entering something that sells off that harshly (re: ugly candles on the chart). There's something going on and I don't want to tread in that swamp. (Now 21.39!)

Indices are flat, slightly green. But really, what are FAS and the finnies doing afloat when Europe is so fucked? Meanwhile, CRUS is exploding, now 26.09, parabolic in these first several minutes. Will not chase. Waiting for a dip.

New fib # in CRUS is 25.07. Patience required.

Update 3:46 am CRUS finally dipping from its 12+% high this morning. Did a little homework and Cirrus has a trailing P/E of 10, forward P/E of 11. Discount to the max. This is almost too good to be true, the need for Cirrus' parts in Apple iPads. Add in these factors: Float of only 64 million shares and short interest of more than 10 mil. Explains the big bounce today.

Update 9:35 am Stayed up long as I could before getting some sleep the past few hours. CRUS almost came down to the 35.30s level (Fib retrace), but not quite. It's now near the day's high at 27.32, up more than 18%. The short covering hasn't ended, I guess. Incredible. But I won't chase. 

ZAGG, which announces earnings in one week, is at 12.05 (+5%). That's more interesting as a chance to ride momentum, but I don't want to chase. AAPL sank to 602+ but rallied to 610 (break even for the day). Then it slid to 607-608 in the last few minutes. 

The indices are all green (+0.7 to 0.9%) with 20+ minutes left in the session. Market is totally setting Europe issues aside, even ignoring today's lack of earnings beats. It's an iPad hysteria society from the US to Beijing. My job is simply to buy low and sell high, like the janitor at a high class party for rich, drunk frat boys and sorority girls, just picking up expensive jewelry that's fallen to the floor. 

Update 10:15 am Speaking of discounts, SBUX has cratered in after-hour trading after beating estimates by a single penny. A lot of disappointment on Twitter, but apparently earnings were nowhere near consensus estimates. I know it's tempting to sit in a Starbucks with the Apple lapptop on, sipping a favorite concoction feeling like AAPL and SBUX are the fricking bomb.

But unlike AAPL, SBUX did not destroy any estimate whatsoever. It went from an intraday high above 61 to 57+ after the news. Now at 58.10. This is one of those situations that guru StockGuy22 might pouce on. He's great at recognizing an oversold or overbought situation and profiting. But I don't know if he likes this. I spend way too much money at Starbucks. Though they're usually busy and crowded — the one in Mililani was packed at 10 pm yesterday — a 1¢ beat means they're no AAPL.

Update 10:30 am Now it's DECK that disappoints the bulls. Seems to be one of those late-in-the-week earnings are the Debbie Downer stocks, while the early-in-week earnings (AAPL, et al) were the gainers.

But as I type that, AMZN has beaten estimates solidly and is trading at 200, up from 195. Zooming higher. Now 204, 205. Yowza. $0.28 vs. $0.07. Wipeout.

Update 10:34 am SWKS (Apple play) is also up big after hours, now 27.02 after closing at 25.54. Just don't know enough about this company to step in.

Update 10:58 am That was a bit childish. I missed AMZN on the news at 200, 205, 210, 213. Got in at 220.50 and sold back right below 220, spooked out. But it's holding above 220. Major, major short covering. It'll be tempting to re-enter before afterhours trading ends for a probable bounce in the morning.

Apple as luxury item

11:08 am (Hawaii). I really don't get out much any more. Otherwise, Apple products wouldn't just be the most reliable, excellent tools of communication and technology in my life. (I gave up on the other laptops and computers a millennium ago without a single regret.) But in truth, even as an AAPL trader, I missed the whole notion of Apple as Luxury Item. Otherwise, I probably would've held since 95 or 214.

I don't have any leanings toward jazzing or blinging up my stuff. I use my Apple stuff for fun and work. I don't have an iPhone, iTouch, iPad ... so there's little to show in public. And yet there are some overindulgent, crazy cool accessories out there. There are iPhones studded with diamonds. It doesn't matter whether I get it. People love their Apple stuff and they love luxury, or at least the appearance of it. So this is more than cool. It's also about status and self-indulgence/self-importance. It's part of the Great Apple Equation.

Apple reading for the weekend

Jason Schwarz: Adjusting to Apple's New Way of Doing Things
"If you think about it, why would Apple want to unveil the iPhone 5 right before the iPhone 4 goes on sale at Verizon? Maybe we'll see the new iPad at the beginning of April and the new iPhone in June."

vjland/Intuitive Trader: AAPL short entry
vjland/Intuitive Trader: AAPL the big picture

iPad illusionist

Is that a real word, illusionist? Whatever. This is pretty cool.

Apple smash

Yep, is anyone really surprised? Apple smoked earnings expectations after the bell as profits increased by 71%. Even with every bullish estimate about the iPad and iPhone and iEverything, Apple knocked the ball out of a cavernous ballpark.

As expected, hedge funds had beaten down AAPL shares for the past week or so, pontificating the horror of the iPhone's antenna problems like Inquisitors at a witch-less, fiery stake. It was only a few weeks ago that shares were nearing 280 again, but even this morning, AAPL was taken to the woodshed. Shares were down to 240 in a weak broad market.

AAPL closed at 251, then ripped to 258 in afterhours trading. I'm still in summer vacation mode and stayed out of the market (again). The time to re-etner AAPL was last week, today, any time below 250. I chose to remain neutral and fully in cash, acting like the Switzerland of tiny retail traders. If global economies can cut the market a break (finally), maybe AAPL is poised to launch its way to 300-plus. In that case, it's not too late for find a suitable entry point.

Call it the Apple slingshot or whatever you like. It happens. Last quarter, the blowout numbers were preposterously, deliciously great, better than Barry Bonds on HGH cream. Shares went up, up, up like a video game on demo mode, then went down, down, down as short-termers reaped their massive profits.

This is the first full quarter banked on iPad sales, and with Mac sales hitting the roof now, there is plenty of reason to believe 250 will become new support.

I won't be chasing here at 258, though. I'll wait until the hedge pimps unload their shares.

Forrest/Epps just don't get it

Forrester has already gone on record recently with underwhelming projects for 2010 iPad sales. Now Forrester's Sarah Rotman Epps insists that Apple will sell barely 200,000 iPads per month.

"Jobs may not view the iPad as a PC, but we do," she wrote recently.

Thing is, the iPad is NOT a computer. It's a TOY, and it's quite sad that Epps and a few other insistent fools refuse to factor in FUN as a key ingredient in this evolution in modern technology. It's perfectly fine for any analysts or writer to say that he or she doesn't like Product X. Doesn't mean the rest of Planet Earth hates it, too.

I never cared much for heavy metal, but I wasn't going to lie and say nobody would buy it during the 1980s and '90s. I saw the Dallas Cowboys rip my L.A. Rams apart many times back then, but I wasn't about the claim that the Cowboys were unpopular and sucked just because they weren't my taste or style when it came to pro football.

Forrester and Epps can say and write whatever they like. Their rep is shot and will continue to be pummeled as the rest of the world has all kinds of fun with their toys, including their favorite, the iPad.

I don't even own one, but even I see the great technology and greater ease of use.

Apple propaganda

Delay? What delay? Any delay regarding Apple and AT&T has been treated as a mini-catalyst. For every story about iPhone flaws, there are the huddled masses gathering at Apple stores to pick up their spanking new 4Gees.

I've never owned an iPhone, iPad or even iPod, but that makes me no less an afficianado for information about Apple. Though shares could plummet back to its two-year low of 78 in a global meltdown, products would be no less cool and hot. Even with the two-day pullback, AAPL is in the red zone at 270.

I remain 100% cash in this thoroughly manipulated and acidic environment. Maybe it's finally time to get a toy for myself. Me and an iPad. Wow, that's too much. I'm salivating. No. Not really.

Some of these reports are a week old. Hey, I'm catching up.

Camping out at the Apple Store for cash Fortune (Philip Elmer-DeWitt)
New iPhone arrives; rivals, beware New York Times (David Pogue)
Apple confirms white iPhone 4 delay until mid-July Gadget Review (Chris Gullo)
(new) Those iPhone 4 lines could get ugly CNET (Caroline McCarthy)
Team Droid X: the anti-Apple? Fortune (Stephanie N. Mehta)
(new) Verizon keeps unlimited data for new Droid X CNET (Marguerite Reardon)
Google: 160,000 Android activations per day Fortune (Seth Weintraub)
Analysts scramble to raise AAPL targets Fortune (Philip Elmer-DeWitt)
App Store: 1% of Apple's gross profit Fortune (Philip Elmer-DeWitt)
The iPad at The Plaza Fortune (Philip Elmer-DeWitt)
Apple's iPhone 4: The reviews are in Ethiopian Review
Video: AT&T stops iPhone 4 preorders after day of frenzy Dallas Morning News
Lines form for the new iPhone in New York and Tokyo (Fortune (Philip Elmer-DeWitt)
What's driving iPhone 4 sales? Fortune (Philip Elmer-DeWitt)

Another nail into Apple?

I don't think any nail can stop Apple, but one by one, the negativity descending on the company is adding up. It's just not good. It's almost like a witch hunt, if I'd actually been around three centuries ago to see one.

This story, or blog, claims Apple security went lax as more than 100K iPad owners were compromised when their e-mail addresses were released.

The specific information exposed in the breach included subscribers' email addresses, coupled with an associated ID used to authenticate the subscriber on AT&T's network, known as the ICC-ID. ICC-ID stands for integrated circuit card identifier and is used to identify the SIM cards that associate a mobile device with a particular subscriber.

In itself, if true, this situation doesn't put life in peril or anything along that line. But it's another negative, another nail, and couldn't have helped today as shares sold off.

Apple bulls, Apple bears

This guy says Apple's stock is overdue for a pullback. He bases this on ... uhh ... nothing. Nothing more than the fact that Steve Jobs has no true successor, nobody who will ever fill his unique role. True enough, but that isn't really reason enough to assume a drastic pullback for the stock, which in reality is trading at a reasonable multiple to current earnings and future earnings. My gosh, Apple just sold its 2 millionth freaking iPad last week. Two mil in two months.

It's not Apple's fault they are so damned good. So I don't understand the hate. Maybe some people just can't stop themselves. They need to be contrarian just because. Fine.

I haven't owned AAPL in at least a couple of weeks. I had chances to re-enter in the 230s, the 240s and 250s, but instead of buying when the market is filled with fear, I waited until I started to "feel" more comfortable. Now AAPL is trading above 260 and I may have missed the ride ... or I'm wise to have nothing but dry powder and the patience to get back if and when we get a double dip in the economy.

The big WWDC is a week away, and its almost a foregone conclusion that Apple will unveil the iPhone 4G then. But earlier today, Steve Jobs turned up at All Things Digital (D8). The live bloggers scribed his every word.

Appleholics Anonymous?

AAPL shares spiked up for two days in a row — including Friday despite a selloff on Wall Street — possibly buoyed by an upgrade by Merrill Lynch, which set a new target of $325.

The numbers for the iPad and upgraded iPhone G4 are going to be enormous, but at what point do those products price into the stock? At 257 today, 325 isn't going to happen overnight, but could definitely happen by Q4 earnings time, if not Q3.

Philip Elmer-DeWitt writes about the eternal rumor regarding Verizon and Apple. Christmas? Hmm...

Meanwhile, the rest of the planet is going ga-ga for Apple. Of all places, Japan is the very one that is so tech-savvy, it leaves the rest of the civilized world in the dust. Yet, somehow, Apple has broken down that wall. Technophiles camped out in Tokyo to get their hands on the iPad. Amazing.

Subdued, but busy in Tokyo.

In Munich, longass lines for the iPad.

More Munich. They really went nuts.

iPad love in London.

Montreal? Crowded, though a bit more subdued.

iPad Apple Store Montreal from Yannick on Vimeo.

Let the ass kicking begin

I'm not a true Machead. I've only purchased a PowerBook G4, MacBook Pro and an iMac in the past six or seven years. No iPhone. No iPod, Touch or iPad. But when I see the greatness of my Apple gear and how they make my life, my work and my fun so easy to access, it's impossible to not be a believer.

That's why, barring a preponderance of global news leading to Armageddon, AAPL is going to scorch Planet Earth and all who stand before it.

It is ass kicking time.

Bring AAPL down to 199 (Flash Crash) or 225 (Post-FC) or 231 (Friday morning) and it will bounce. Maybe not immediately, but it will bounce and soar. I'm willing to let the dust settle before I re-enter. I would've been willing to dive back in at 231 if I'd been nimble and not brain-dead. But Steve Jobs says there will be ass kicking to be done, though maybe not exactly in those words. As WWDC draws closer, Apple shares are ripening again.

This isn't about being a Mac nerd or iPad junkie. This is about honesty, and honestly, Apple kicks ass now more than ever. I'd be a lot more frank, probably, if I actually owned an iPad and iPhone.

Star Wars: Apple vs. Google

Just when it seemed Apple had Google knocked down and out ... here comes Google with a slugger's chance.

Now, it's not like AAPL and GOOG were ever true competitors before. But with Apple losing its bid to buy AdMob, the FTC has turned around and given Google the OK to buy AdMob. Funny how competition works. Now they're both in the mobile advertising business and GOOG is a player in a big way thanks to its reputedly awesome Android phone.

So, just when it seemed GOOG stock was going to be stagnant, it's got a chance to move again. Google has growth potential now, even after departing China. AAPL, facing questions about meeting demand for iPads and getting (maybe) some semblance of competition from the Android, might be getting more familiar with this trading range in the 240s than any of us longs and former longs expected.

All the possibilities and speculation about Apple search and anything else that could develop in this war are nothing short of fascinating. For now, though, it's going to take a slew of press releases to get AAPL shares back up to 250 and 260 again. Maybe shares don't move much higher than 245 for awhile, but I would not bet against Steve Jobs.

iMiss coming?

Demand is high, supply is low. Supposedly. Whatever the situation is, Apple shareholders are in a bind. Could Apple actually miss Q2 estimates because of this problem?

I tend to believe it won't be a problem. Apple usually comes through. Steve Jobs knows how to execute. Then again, I sold at 257 and haven't bought back shares since. (I would have opened a new position at 231 on Friday morning, but that's another story.)

Here's a good story about a lady who just wanted her iPad and the reporter who helped her get through the red tape.

24 million iPhone 4G en route

Starting in June. Wait. That's in two weeks. Holy Safari!

This report indicates that Apple will receive the 24-million iPhone 4G shipment starting then. Domestic Mac sales are up 39% (April, year over year). iPod sales are down 17% YOY, but that's the iPad effect. The net change should be enormous for the bottom line.

I know, I know ... do I need to post every single bit of information about Apple? In this market, why, yes. I do. Maybe not every bit, but at least I'll read and post occasionally about AAPL. In a world of fiction and deception, it's always important to keep the eyes on the prize, and the prize involves real facts. Numbers that are true, not bubbliciously fake. That's what makes me bullish, still, on AAPL. I just want a great price.