Yep, the market is tanking big time, no thanks to the ever consistent Big Ben. I got out of Yingli at 34.41. Sold at a loss of $0.78/share. The market is very ugly right now; NAS is down 78 points (2.9%). Even Apple is down big, and Baidu has cratered to 360. After I sold, YGE recovered a bit to 34.60. However, I refuse to take a bigger loss.
Three times this week, including this morning, YGE went from 35 to 37. I would've made a nice 2 points each time had I sold at 37. Lesson learned. See a pattern, trade the pattern. Would've made me a nice profit had I acted on the pattern and sold the second and third times. I had my chances. YGE just sat there above 37 without moving despite a robust earnings report this morning. I should've taken the profit.
The only stocks in the green today are the solars. First Solar to the moon, was up $60 at one time to 230, and is now holding very strong at 215.
Showing posts with label First Solar. Show all posts
Showing posts with label First Solar. Show all posts
Thursday, November 8, 2007
Wednesday, August 1, 2007
Some cheese with this whine
Welcome to the Bitch & Moan portion of today's posts. Yes, a little venting is good for the overall health. That would be wine. Not so much the cheese. All the great-tasting stuff is bad for you.
I begin my rant with my beloved Nintendo (NTDOY.PK). Today, the stock sank with the rest of the Tokyo market. Well, not to the bottom, but dropping $3 to $58.75 sucks. When I bought more shares at $62, it was with the long term in mind. Still is.
I just wish I'd waited a day or so. The blow wasn't too bad. I rolled with it because late last night, I saw the stock in Tokyo peeling back 3%. Maybe I'll buy more tomorrow.
Garmin (GRMN) beat earnings expectations, as I expected. Did I get shares before the fact? No. And I regret it. That's what I get for not studying this Co much more in recent months. GRMN closed at $83 yesterday. From Reuters writer Purwa Khandelwal:
Investors had been optimistic that Garmin might beat expectations, but it topped even the most bullish outlooks.
"(The company) reported even more upside than we had expected and easily surpassed our read on 'whisper' expectations," Rob Sanderson, an analyst with American Technology Research, said in an e-mail to Reuters.
Second-quarter earnings were 98 cents a share, versus market expectations of 74 cents a share.
Revenue rose 72 percent to $742 million, boosted by a doubling in revenue from its automotive/mobile segment and a 59 percent rise in revenue from the marine business.
Garmin also raised expectations and increased the dividend from $.50 to $.75. There is a strong possibility that the Co will buy Navteq; no comment yet from the Co. The CC was at 11 a.m. Eastern today, and the stock opened at $90 today. It's currently at $93 in after hours. Waah.
First Solar (FSLR) took a major hit yesterday with a sub-par earnings report, at least in terms of slowing growth. The stock ran from $120 mid-day to $98 in after hours. However, FSLR bounced back and closed today at $107.
As MC Hammer said, can't touch this.
Why is Amazon (AMZN) still dropping? The stock sank to $75 today before closing at $77. All because of what? Profit taking? Sure. Barron's negative piece? Probably. I have no AMZN, so I should count my blessings and look for an entry point.
Crocs hit $60 yesterday, closed at $59, and is down to $58 today. Is the short squeeze over? I doubt it. We'll see after August expiry just what happens with a stock that has 32% short interest. Besides, the stock actually dipped early in the day to $56 and change, and then recovered quickly.
This is one of the companies that has raised guidance for Q3. Since the eve of recent earnings release, when CROX traded at $50, the stock is up 16%. That's hefty. I am not going to whine. That would be a sign of greed.
I got in at $40, $50 and $57, and CROX keeps going up. Nope, no complaints here.
Focus Media (FMCN) has returned to its downslide. The stock lost more than a buck and closed at $40.08 today. I know the hearing with Nasdaq is coming, and that these kind of things take time. Is FMCN a steal at this level? Of course. But I ain't messing with a buy. Dendreon (DNDN) has already given me enough headaches with anything to do with higher-ups (SEC) and off-field crap (lawsuits up the okole).
Yingli Green Energy (YGE) continues to tease and taunt me. The stock was up just a bit today after hitting $18-plus earlier in the week. Though I see limitations — the Co has exposure only in Western China to go with off-shore contracts — it is still an undervalued alternative energy play in a fast-growing region of the free economy. I still don't view YGE as a better growth Co than Suntech (STP), but YGE may have a nicer growth spurt ahead.
This is a lot of bitching and moaning, I know. But I'll leave you with one happy ending (for the day). My nephew's pick, Under Armor, keeps climbing. Whether it's the awesome earnings report or 50% short interest, UA is up to $64 now. Guess that makes up for my ineptitude on GRMN and NTDOY.PK.
With the choppy market, I should anticipate more of the same. Then again, earnings reports are almost all out, so we may settle into a lull. Finally.
Pupule Paul is long NTDOY.PK, CROX and FMCN.
I begin my rant with my beloved Nintendo (NTDOY.PK). Today, the stock sank with the rest of the Tokyo market. Well, not to the bottom, but dropping $3 to $58.75 sucks. When I bought more shares at $62, it was with the long term in mind. Still is. I just wish I'd waited a day or so. The blow wasn't too bad. I rolled with it because late last night, I saw the stock in Tokyo peeling back 3%. Maybe I'll buy more tomorrow.
Garmin (GRMN) beat earnings expectations, as I expected. Did I get shares before the fact? No. And I regret it. That's what I get for not studying this Co much more in recent months. GRMN closed at $83 yesterday. From Reuters writer Purwa Khandelwal: Investors had been optimistic that Garmin might beat expectations, but it topped even the most bullish outlooks.
"(The company) reported even more upside than we had expected and easily surpassed our read on 'whisper' expectations," Rob Sanderson, an analyst with American Technology Research, said in an e-mail to Reuters.
Second-quarter earnings were 98 cents a share, versus market expectations of 74 cents a share.
Revenue rose 72 percent to $742 million, boosted by a doubling in revenue from its automotive/mobile segment and a 59 percent rise in revenue from the marine business.
Garmin also raised expectations and increased the dividend from $.50 to $.75. There is a strong possibility that the Co will buy Navteq; no comment yet from the Co. The CC was at 11 a.m. Eastern today, and the stock opened at $90 today. It's currently at $93 in after hours. Waah.
First Solar (FSLR) took a major hit yesterday with a sub-par earnings report, at least in terms of slowing growth. The stock ran from $120 mid-day to $98 in after hours. However, FSLR bounced back and closed today at $107. As MC Hammer said, can't touch this.
Why is Amazon (AMZN) still dropping? The stock sank to $75 today before closing at $77. All because of what? Profit taking? Sure. Barron's negative piece? Probably. I have no AMZN, so I should count my blessings and look for an entry point. 
Crocs hit $60 yesterday, closed at $59, and is down to $58 today. Is the short squeeze over? I doubt it. We'll see after August expiry just what happens with a stock that has 32% short interest. Besides, the stock actually dipped early in the day to $56 and change, and then recovered quickly. This is one of the companies that has raised guidance for Q3. Since the eve of recent earnings release, when CROX traded at $50, the stock is up 16%. That's hefty. I am not going to whine. That would be a sign of greed.
I got in at $40, $50 and $57, and CROX keeps going up. Nope, no complaints here.
Focus Media (FMCN) has returned to its downslide. The stock lost more than a buck and closed at $40.08 today. I know the hearing with Nasdaq is coming, and that these kind of things take time. Is FMCN a steal at this level? Of course. But I ain't messing with a buy. Dendreon (DNDN) has already given me enough headaches with anything to do with higher-ups (SEC) and off-field crap (lawsuits up the okole). 
Yingli Green Energy (YGE) continues to tease and taunt me. The stock was up just a bit today after hitting $18-plus earlier in the week. Though I see limitations — the Co has exposure only in Western China to go with off-shore contracts — it is still an undervalued alternative energy play in a fast-growing region of the free economy. I still don't view YGE as a better growth Co than Suntech (STP), but YGE may have a nicer growth spurt ahead. This is a lot of bitching and moaning, I know. But I'll leave you with one happy ending (for the day). My nephew's pick, Under Armor, keeps climbing. Whether it's the awesome earnings report or 50% short interest, UA is up to $64 now. Guess that makes up for my ineptitude on GRMN and NTDOY.PK.
With the choppy market, I should anticipate more of the same. Then again, earnings reports are almost all out, so we may settle into a lull. Finally.
Pupule Paul is long NTDOY.PK, CROX and FMCN.
Tuesday, July 31, 2007
Rain falls on First Solar
This was a recipe for the blues.
A dismal market, particularly in the final 30 minutes, sent shares of First Solar tumbling. A less-than-scintillating earnings report sent shares from a mid-day high of $122 to a post-bell low of $98.37. Shares are trading at $103.20 in the after-hours market.
Though the Co increased year-over-year earnings to $77.9 million and met expectations with an EPS of $.07, it wasn't enough to support the stock. FLSR shares gained 100% in recent months.
Recent insider selling by CEO Michael Aheam and key investors from the Walton family weren't a positive sign for First Solar longs. While the selling was a big net return at a price of $107 per share, the stock continued to rise on momentum before tumbling today.
See the Q2 earnings report here.
Pupule Paul has no position in FSLR.
A dismal market, particularly in the final 30 minutes, sent shares of First Solar tumbling. A less-than-scintillating earnings report sent shares from a mid-day high of $122 to a post-bell low of $98.37. Shares are trading at $103.20 in the after-hours market. Though the Co increased year-over-year earnings to $77.9 million and met expectations with an EPS of $.07, it wasn't enough to support the stock. FLSR shares gained 100% in recent months.
Recent insider selling by CEO Michael Aheam and key investors from the Walton family weren't a positive sign for First Solar longs. While the selling was a big net return at a price of $107 per share, the stock continued to rise on momentum before tumbling today.
See the Q2 earnings report here.
Pupule Paul has no position in FSLR.
Monday, July 30, 2007
Solar on fire from FSLR to YGE
The solar kids don't even know a storm just passed.
They just keep running around in glee. First Solar, with questions hovering over whether it'll make earnings expectations of 7-8 cents per share, finished strong today. While I slept (5-10 a.m. Hawaii time), the stock languished around $110 for much of the session. Then, with two hours left, FSLR went crazy and climbed to a $120 close.
With earnings due out tomorrow, did somebody leak something? Perhaps drawing a residual effect, tiny Yingli Green Energy moved up 6.4% to $18.16. YGE has spent the early part of the day up about 20-40 cents before making the move for a gain of $1.09.
Shares of YGE were at $16 just two sessions ago. Will it pull back or trade with its sector?
I think of First Solar as overpriced, especially after today's 8% run to $120. This Co doesn't even have more revenues than tiny Yingli. What FSLR has is a unique product and major financial muscle, i.e. the Walton family, and scored a $1 billion secondary offering recently. That's clout. Still, I might step into the Yingli Green House simply because of the sector's heat and Yingli's location. China is spending big on alternative energy.
A buy into Yingli would be counter, in a way, to my small holding in Hoku Scientific. The latter has a non-binding contract with a Yingli competitor, big boy Suntech. I like the fundamental numbers of STP very well. STP traded up 1% to $39.89.
Can FSLR run up again tomorrow before earnings? After trading sideways since July 9, today's big move on strong volume is clearly bullish. Hmm...
At this point, STP looks like a safe investment compared to its peers in the sector, while YGE has a lot of upside. I can't let go of FSLR though, because of its "thin film" technology. Cheaper to make, not quite as efficient as silicon ... but profitable.
How much so? Tomorrow's earnings report awaits.
Pupule Paul has no position in these stocks.
They just keep running around in glee. First Solar, with questions hovering over whether it'll make earnings expectations of 7-8 cents per share, finished strong today. While I slept (5-10 a.m. Hawaii time), the stock languished around $110 for much of the session. Then, with two hours left, FSLR went crazy and climbed to a $120 close. With earnings due out tomorrow, did somebody leak something? Perhaps drawing a residual effect, tiny Yingli Green Energy moved up 6.4% to $18.16. YGE has spent the early part of the day up about 20-40 cents before making the move for a gain of $1.09.
Shares of YGE were at $16 just two sessions ago. Will it pull back or trade with its sector? I think of First Solar as overpriced, especially after today's 8% run to $120. This Co doesn't even have more revenues than tiny Yingli. What FSLR has is a unique product and major financial muscle, i.e. the Walton family, and scored a $1 billion secondary offering recently. That's clout. Still, I might step into the Yingli Green House simply because of the sector's heat and Yingli's location. China is spending big on alternative energy.
A buy into Yingli would be counter, in a way, to my small holding in Hoku Scientific. The latter has a non-binding contract with a Yingli competitor, big boy Suntech. I like the fundamental numbers of STP very well. STP traded up 1% to $39.89.
Can FSLR run up again tomorrow before earnings? After trading sideways since July 9, today's big move on strong volume is clearly bullish. Hmm...
At this point, STP looks like a safe investment compared to its peers in the sector, while YGE has a lot of upside. I can't let go of FSLR though, because of its "thin film" technology. Cheaper to make, not quite as efficient as silicon ... but profitable.
How much so? Tomorrow's earnings report awaits.
Pupule Paul has no position in these stocks.
Studying Solar: First Solar
Can Yingli Green Energy or any other solar Co take a First Solar type of rocket ride?
FSLR went from $27 in January to a recent high of $119. At a current PPS of $110, FSLR has a market cap of $8 billion with a P/E of 479, forward P/E of 95 and a whopping PEG rate of 3.10.
Unbelievably, FSLR has revenue of just $188 million, lower than Yingli. The company raised $1 billion recently in a secondary offering at a price of $107 per share. The offering is a huge boost, obviously.
One of the biggest differences between First Solar and Yingli is quarterly revenue growth. FSLR's rate is 391%. The Co has $324 million in cash and total debt of $95 million. Positive. Though there are 73 million shares outstanding, only 18 million are in the float.
Forbes.com reported that CEO Michael Aheam and members of the Walton family have filed with the SEC to sell shares. Aheam plans to sell roughly 15% of his holdings, while the Waltons will sell about 10% of their stake. The Waltons own 53% of the Co.
Tomorrow is a big day for First Solar. Earnings will be out and expectations hover around 7 or 8 cents per share. Short interest is 18%. The narrowest miss could send FSLR for a slide, so I don't anticipate buying shares until after tomorrow.
It's certainly a lot of information to absorb for a solar ignoramus like me. Is FSLR's dedication to cadmium telluride — less efficient yet more affordable than silicon — the wave of the future? The market says yes. What makes this a little more interesting for me is that I've been highly interested in Hoku Scientific, a company that is planning to build a facility in Idaho for polysilicon production.
Yingli, First Solar, Hoku. Being a lifelong resident of Hawaii — I've never understood why solar energy was never a focal point here — the sector is nothing short of fascinating to me now.
Pupule Paul has no position in YGE and FSLR, but is a bit long HOKU.
FSLR went from $27 in January to a recent high of $119. At a current PPS of $110, FSLR has a market cap of $8 billion with a P/E of 479, forward P/E of 95 and a whopping PEG rate of 3.10.
Unbelievably, FSLR has revenue of just $188 million, lower than Yingli. The company raised $1 billion recently in a secondary offering at a price of $107 per share. The offering is a huge boost, obviously. One of the biggest differences between First Solar and Yingli is quarterly revenue growth. FSLR's rate is 391%. The Co has $324 million in cash and total debt of $95 million. Positive. Though there are 73 million shares outstanding, only 18 million are in the float.
Forbes.com reported that CEO Michael Aheam and members of the Walton family have filed with the SEC to sell shares. Aheam plans to sell roughly 15% of his holdings, while the Waltons will sell about 10% of their stake. The Waltons own 53% of the Co.
Tomorrow is a big day for First Solar. Earnings will be out and expectations hover around 7 or 8 cents per share. Short interest is 18%. The narrowest miss could send FSLR for a slide, so I don't anticipate buying shares until after tomorrow.
It's certainly a lot of information to absorb for a solar ignoramus like me. Is FSLR's dedication to cadmium telluride — less efficient yet more affordable than silicon — the wave of the future? The market says yes. What makes this a little more interesting for me is that I've been highly interested in Hoku Scientific, a company that is planning to build a facility in Idaho for polysilicon production.
Yingli, First Solar, Hoku. Being a lifelong resident of Hawaii — I've never understood why solar energy was never a focal point here — the sector is nothing short of fascinating to me now.
Pupule Paul has no position in YGE and FSLR, but is a bit long HOKU.
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