Dollar dollar bill y'all

The weekend is upon us after a strange week thanks to the 4th of July being on a Wednesday. AAPL roared higher, up to 614 yesterday, but is now at 603+ as the market pulls back. A lot of that is due to the LIBOR scandal, another bankster scam that has every stock on my Debt Spiral Dance list red. Deutsche Bank is under investigation, down 5.3% to 33.55 and near its low of the day. Soc Gen (SCGLY) is down 5.9%. It's going to be industry wide and FAZ is ripping higher for a second day in a row.

The US banksters aren't being hit as hard, but it's still a bloody mess: BAC -2.1%, C -2.4%, JPM -1.5%, MS -2.4%. The dollar (UUP) and euro ultra short (EUO) march higher, as does TVIX. Oddly, gold and silver are being bludgeoned along with financials. Most stocks are moving on miniscule volume today. Buyers have run from the market like it's a house on fire.

Taking precaution yesterday turned out to be good given that my sleeping hours overlap with the market. Holding AAPL from 95 or whatever would be different, but since I didn't do that, playing with AAPL at 600+ is turbulent to say the least. With the Dow (-161), Nasdaq (-49) and S&P (-16) down 1.2% to 1.9%, it's not the time to try and be a hero.

No messing with Uncle Sam (updated)

Dollar is powering higher this morning, taking most stocks lower. AAPL was somewhat of an exception, off its premarket high (602.98). The skittish mood was enough to bump me out at 601.50 for a small profit (+8.60 or so). AAPL could hold this morning's gain, but after running the past few sessions, it's due for a minor drop.

Economy is doing a little better with this morning's strong payroll number, strong meaning better than expected. That's part of the reason why the QE bulls are tentative for the time being. I'll be getting some sleep.

Update 9:40 am HST: AAPL ran hot in the face of head winds in the market. While the Dow (-34) and Nasdaq (-3) were ragged, AAPL rose to 614+ as I slept. Now at 611.75. In hindsight, holding my position with a stop-loss at 600 or 599 would have done well. But I did sleep well.

Apple Inc earnings are on July 16. Coupled with the news late last week about the 7-inch iPad, the stock is doing its usual pre-earnings explosion. AAPL defies the market; FAZ is up 2.7%. TVIX up 2.2%. UUP (US dollar) up 1.3%. EUO up 3.5%.

Apple crunch?

Weird mix of good and bad news for AAPL as the market was generally flat in a low-volume, pre-holiday, half-day session. I got back in AAPL yesterday afterhours at slightly below 593. Shares hit 600 today and closed above 599. I'm holding the position over the holiday.

Whatever weirdness came out on AAPL, this just came out several minutes ago: a 7-inch iPad will be (reportedly) released this year. Good news? I own no iPad, no iPhone, not even an iPod. But this sounds good for AAPL longs.

Business Insider (via Bloomberg): Apple will launch smaller, cheaper iPad this year (July 3)

Apple turnover

In AAPL on Friday at 583.95. Out today at 591.50.

Woke up a few minutes ago to find the market generally flat on lower volume. AAPL has lower volume, too, but was up above 593 in the first half of the session. I almost forgot about that position. That's how deep into summer mode I am. But I locked in a decent gain, not interested in re-entering. The only possibility would be a catalyst late in the day, and AAPL would see another jolt of volume as it did early in the session.

Thursday cinema & library

We're on the verge of some potentially titanic movements in the next few days. Sit tight and avoid the turbulence, or at least take a barf bag with you. Better yet, get on your bike and enjoy a fine summer evening.

Tyler Durden: Positioning for weekend: BofA's risk cheat sheet (June 15)
TraderFlorida (video): Thursday wrap (June 14)
streetmoney21 (video): Currency markets prepare for total chaos on Monday (June 14)
Le Fly: Come get it (June 14)

Charles Biderman: How to benefit from global financial mess (June 14)

Street Insider: Unusual mid-day movers (NBG) (June 14)
Barron's: Apple potential 'game changer' in mobile payments (June 13)
Reggie Middleton: As predicted last year, French and Greeks in race (June 13)

Weekend cinema & library

CNET: Apple teases WWDC 2012 with iOS6 banner (June 8)
AP: Central Asia bloc gives Afghans observer status (June 7)

Idling and parking (updated)

8:26 am (Hawaii) Some long, fun days for me with summer here, which means I've slept through the past two sessions for the most part. Even though I knew futures were up more than 100 points last night. The Dow is +203 with about 90 minutes left. AAPL is hovering around 570, off its intraday high of 573.85. AGQ is up 5.1% to 43.86, one of the most obvious signs that sentiment is with the bulls, i.e. euro printing is about to crank into full madness.

DGP is barely green today, however. Also note that volume is a pittance, so this move could pop any moment. It's a three-legged chair. It's a lack of sellers more than an onslaught of buyers. Even social media are up: FB +0.9%, YELP +4.3%. Even GRPN +7.4%.

Finnies are rallying again. JPM is +2.6% and FAS is +6.66 percent (not making that up). VXX is down 4.8% and TVIX is -8.9%.

I have some work to do, in and out this morning (yes, it's still morning here in the middle of the Pacific), and I'm not convinced about this move higher. I may dip into DGP or even NUGT with a tight stop, but that's it. This arena is half empty, and if the balloon pops in Europe, the tankage will resume. My gut tells me they have to print, though. It's a conundrum.

Update 10:04 am In and out of FAS for a quick little profit. Got in at 77.70 a few minutes before the closing bell. Swung lower to about 77.45 before it closed strong. A few minutes after the bell, sold at 78.45. They'll puppeteer this thing back to 77.70 or so at some point today, I'm guessing.

Of course, now that I'm out, it will go to 80, then 85, then 90. They must print euros. Simple as that. So why am I not in gold and/or silver? Both have made big runs recently. I'll wait until things cool off a little more before walking into that. Because any whiff of bad news regarding the ECB, eurozone, Germany ... and FAS goes back to 68. And lower.

Weekend cinema & library (updated)

Bokor Mountain Church, Cambodia

Le Fly/iBankCoin: Germany's third World War (June 3)
Scott Bleier/iBankCoin: Growth at any cost? (June 3)
Business Insider: Soros reveals exact moment Merkel started Euro collapse (June 2)
Business Insider: Former hedge funder presents terrifying version of end game (June 2)
Bloomberg: Merkel rejects debt sharing (June 2)
Reuters: Funds pull out of commodities, most bearish since end-2011 (June 1)
Zero Hedge: 'The End Game' (June 1)
Zero Hedge: The deer is back (June 1)
Zero Hedge: Santelli and Kaminsky on broken rules, unpredictability, deleveraging (June 1)
Zero Hedge: Sorry folks, QE3 ain't coming, even the Fed doves admit it (June 1)

News trumps all

7:50 am (Hawaii) I've been disgusted with myself all week, which is no way to prepare for the market. Heck, in that mindset, it would've been best to leave home for awhile, get outside and get some clarity, which I did a few times. It's not the amount in trading losses that bothered me; it was relatively fractional. It was the whipsaw nature of price action and my inability — or unwillingness — to respect the lack of direction.

But I was all cash most of the week after the close, and that game plan was best. Though I wasn't long FAZ overnight, I wasn't long the market either and this -247 point move in the Dow comes on the back end of these negative PMI numbers across the world in the past 36 hours. It's tempting to go short (via FAZ or TVIX), but the risk here is that with all the bad news absorbed, and Obama done speaking (the indices dove again as he began), the market is done puking for the time being.

DJ -2%
Nasdaq -2.6%
S&P -2.3%

Overnight futures were at -110 before I hit the sack, so getting up to see this isn't a major shock. But gold is UP. DGP is +8.2%. AAPL is down 2.5% ($14) to 563. Even some of the stocks that had been resilient, like JACK, are down more than 4%.

The strange thing is, volume is SO LOW. In some cases, it is miniscule. So is this a true capitulation move even without volume? Maybe there are simply no sellers left and this really is the bottom. But I'm not willing to go long here. Not yet.

Update 8:13 am In FAZ at 29.75.

Update 8:20 am Out FAZ 29.62. It was up to 29.83 and topped out. Should've protected myself and stopped out (manual) for break-even. Tiny loss, but it's the principle. During that intraday top by FAZ, AAPL bottomed at 560.52. AAPL now 562.50, FAZ at 29.50. Anything with a gain over 10% like FAZ is due to sell off, no surprise.

Looking ahead (updated)

2:39 pm (Hawaii) Kinda regretting not holding any FAZ. Realizing that smaller positions, even smaller than what I've sometimes traded, will work best through the choppiness.

Business Insider: Nikkei tanks right away as industrial output comes in weak (May 30)

But @TraderFlorida has been spot on in regard to technical analysis, riding AAPL down until last week, and now he's bullish on it for the short term.

TraderFlorida (video): Nice bounce today (May 30)

I'm all cash for now. Who knew AAPL would jump $10 while the Dow would plunge 160?

From earlier today:


Business Insider: ECB sends out rejection of FT report that it blocked Spanish bank recap (May 30)
Business Insider: Here comes the busiest 48 hours in history of economics (May 30)
Telegraph: Spain faces 'total emergency' (May 30)

Update 8:53 pm 


AZ Daily Sun: Asia stocks fall as Italy, Spain bond costs rise (May 30)
Orange County Register: Robert Samuelson: Why is there no Greek bank run? (May 30)
Bloomberg: Spain's banking rescue should become example for Europe (May 30)

Wacked Wednesday? (updated)

3:46 am (Hawaii) Didn't like my trades yesterday. Liked the market whiplash even less. Aimless but I got myself stuck in that merciless washing machine. This time, the market shows direction (down) and I'm back in with FAZ (at 26.78) and TVIX (at 8.48). The TVIX position is quite small this time, meaning I can withstand a 2% or 3% drop. Stop losses, as always, are in place.

Why the drop in indices today (1% to 1.3%)? China says no stimulus, serious stimulus is coming. Is this really news? No. But volume is in this negative market today.

Update 3:56 am A wtf moment indeed. FAZ dipped to 26.69 and stopped me out. But TVIX went even more dippy down to 8.45 and stopped me out. It touched 8.45 for a few seconds and ran back up to 8.55. In other words, they played me and my stop loss orders. I'm at a net loss (very small) but it sucks that I was up (small) for the past 25 minutes or so and got suckered. Yeah. Note to self, no stop losses on TVIX from now on.

Update 11:08 am Woke up about 25 minutes ago to see the Dow closed -160. Indices were off by 1 to 1.4%. But the move in financials, FAZ, TVIX are major. My entire Debt Spiral list is red with big losses today. FAZ fell to 26.99, then ran into the close and is at 27.55 after hours. In other words, I would've had a winning trade if I'd stayed in. (I wouldn't have held all the way down below 27, but I could've started a new position in that area.)

TVIX, which I bought early today at 8.48, dipped to 8.32 by 2 pm Eastern time before running hard. TVIX was at 9.10 after hours and is now at 8.94. I traded in and out of FAZ and TVIX with zero success today. Time to change strategy. I had the right picks, but the wrong timing.

It's unpredictable even though so many bloggers and analysts claim it is not. Sure there's a bounce ahead, but when? Nobody really knows anything except that when it bounces, it will be big. Until then, the dollar keeps rising, the euro keeps dropping (below 1.24) and my timing needs to be better.

Oddly enough, AAPL ran to 579.99 before cutting back to 578.10 after hours, up 1% for the day. @TraderFlorida, as usual, is dead on about AAPL's bounce. His call was bullish if AAPL gets above 576 on big volume. Today's volume, 13.4M shares, is a bit more than Monday and Tuesday levels, but not close to last week's numbers (22M+).

AAPL up, Apple plays down

Bouncy indeedie (updated)

4:11 am (Hawaii) Volume plus a bounce on the bull side got me into FAS at 81.75. I was up a teeny bit when the consumer confidence report was released and I got stopped out flash crash style for a small loss. Within a couple of minutes, FAS rallied off 81.25 and head right up to 82. I re-entered at 82.25, put my stop loss order in and it has ranged around that price since.

AAPL had been up to 570 briefly, came down to 566+ and is now back at 570. If there is no bad news coming down the pike, this bounce could last a few sessions or more. Short squeezes galore.

Update 4:38 am Out of FAS at 82.15, teeny loss. JPM tanked horribly even as FAS stayed above 82. In the meantime, AAPL surged higher. So that ended the FAS trade. Whatever happened with JPM, I wasn't going to stick around waiting to see FAS drop like a rock, too. Got in AAPL at 573 with a stop loss in. AAPL is already up $10 (+1.8%) but if today turns out to be pivotal, even just for a short-term bounce, there's way more upside coming. If.

Update 1:59 pm In AAPL at 573, stopped out at 570.50. Wicked churning and I should've had the sense to stay the hell out. AAPL closed above 572, but dipped below 571 in the past hour or so after hours. Three trades today, three small losses, but psychologically not good. Need to protect confidence and capital.

Postmarket prognasticating

11:31 am (Hawaii) Well well. On TV, the jabbermouths at CNBC claim that EU leaders went into tonight's summit with an open mind about Eurobonds. Yet this story in Ireland's Journal notes that Merkel remains staunchly against such things.

“I believe that they are not a contribution to stimulating growth in the eurozone,” Merkel said, adding that such instruments were expressly forbidden by the EU’s own treaties.

Can't blame her. This story came out roughly at 5 pm Eastern (35 minutes ago), which may explain the little pop in FAZ after hours. It's at 26.85 on the usual thin volume. AAPL is smoking hot, now at 573. I'd love to re-enter, but anything negative out of that summit will knock the market down immediately.

Huge hump day (updated 9:55 am)

5:31 am (Hawaii) It could be huge. Or just a puff of smoke blowing by. Will anything really change with the "informal" EU summit?

Re-opened a position in FAZ at 28.05. With each passing day in May, it's easy to say in hindsight that it's better to just let a position run. Just hold it overnight; Europe is a long way from printing more euros. But I've been burned before on overnight holds of FAZ. And mornings like this when I can't get wake up before 5 am, too risky. There's time to catch any (Eastern time) afternoon runs.

RTE News: What can the EU summit deliver? (May 23)
Bloomberg: European Banks Unprepared for Greek Exit from Euro (May 23)

Update 6:44 am Stopped out of FAZ at 28.25 (+0.21/share). Tiny profit, I'll take it. Volume at its softest of the day as FAZ faded from its high. Indices are all roughly -1.3%. Nothing bullish (or bearish) out of the EU summit. Yet.

Update 6:58 am Re-entered FAZ at 28.24 as it bounced off a swing to 28.15. Stop loss as always is in place. Volume low, whipsaw action could get more drastic. Maybe at the top of the hour.

Update 7:23 am Stopped out of FAZ at 28.07 (-0.17/share) for a tiny loss. I'm now break even for the day. The chart looks like it's tiring and the indices are starting to rally a bit. (DJ -1.1%, Nas -1%, S&P -1%.) FAZ could jump from here, but I'm not going to force a trade.

AAPL back in the green, now 559.40, up more than $2. No idea if it will stick, though @TraderFlorida has a clear-cut view of where it will go.

Update 7:52 am The Fibonacci retrace from today's high (off yesterday's close of 27.03) is at 27.90. FAZ was at 27.88 just a minute ago, now bouncing to 28.03. Funny how that usually works. A little more volume and I might be convinced.

Update 7:58 am Back in FAZ at 28.06. Stop loss in place.

Update 8:03 am Need to check news far more frequently. This hit the wire at about 7:15 Hawaii time (45 minutes ago):

Bloomberg: Greek Capital Boost May Help Banks to Staunch Deposit Outflows (May 23)

FAZ was at 28.20 before this headline. Then it plummeted to 27.88, which I saw earlier. But I left my stop loss alone after buying at 28.06, and it's now back at 28.10 after wavering below 28. The injection of 18B euros ($23B in dollars) is a band-aid on the bank jog problem.

Update 8:34 am Stopped out of FAZ at 28.12 (+.06/share) for the teeniest of profits. It was up to 28.32 and yanking back violently in the past several minutes on strong volume.

Update 8:44 am That was ugly. Entered FAZ at 28.03, and the second it hit, it slumped to 27.98 and it got fugly after that. Dropped to 27.83 in a matter of 1 minute if that and I was stopped out for a small loss. Volume was big, and I should've taken the cue from a long red candle on the 3-min chart just 12 minutes ago or so. Trying a bit too hard here, time to step away.

Update 9:35 am In AAPL at 568.80. Passed on it earlier at 566. Stop loss is fairly tight. Strictly a day trade. Nasdaq crossed over to green a couple of minutes ago. The summit in Europe has the market bullish for the time being.

Update 9:47 am Out of AAPL at 570.80 (+2.00/share) for a tiny profit. I raised my stop loss a few times, but once it hit 572.80 and sold off fast, I needed to get out. I wanted to change the stop loss to a limit sell for a higher price, but it moved a little faster to the downside and I chose not to get too greedy. Just wanted to get out with a profit and took a price below bid due to the speed of price action downward. (Stop loss was at 570.30, so I did better making the quickie adjustment.)

No way I would've held AAPL overnight. Too much risk at the summit.

Update 9:55 am Euro madness? More like euro anxiety. Tempting to get a little position in FAZ here, being pessimistic on Greece, but probably staying out until we get some news from the summit.

Reuters: Eurozone tells members to make contingencies for Grexit (May 23)

Rudderless market (updated 12:32 pm)

8:08 am (Hawaii) I still think the robots are in control, just not as firmly as yesterday. AAPL ran to 573 and ran out of steam. The buying ended and it has since pulled back to 563 where it drifts in an abyss. The indices looked about ready to give all its gains back today, but have stayed positive in the past hour.

Somehow someway the financials are getting a "lift". That's where I think G8 hit the switch and got the robots cranked up. Again. 95% of my Debt Spiral list is green, and that includes NBG and STD. JPM is up 5.3% to 34.24 even though it is (in my mind) almost certain that their losses are about to double or triple (or worse).

Sure no stock goes to 0 in a straight line, but this is borderline comedy that insolvent institutions are being propped up on nothing (that we peons can know about). In the end, the printing presses will hum. In the end-end, they will not. But that's not today and I haven't hit a buy order yet. All for the best.

Some reading for your pleasure and education:

Jim Wyckoff: Top 10 mistakes traders make (May 21)

Update 9:25 am Back in FAZ at 26.85. I wanted in at 26.70, missed it by a hair. Was looking for a breakout above 26.80 or a pullback to the range low of 26.55. Indices pummeled in the past 15 minutes. Nasdaq in the red with AAPL back to 557.

Greek/Eurozone has a big day tomorrow. Not looking to play either side, just watching FAZ price action, have my stop loss in place. So much for that dead cat bounce. JPM had been up large today, pulling back now to 34.09. It was at 32.99 early today. Might close there, who knows.

When AAPL started to crater, I just didn't have the guts to short it. I've never shorted anything directly, only through something like FAZ. But AAPL has already hit 546 recently, my Fibonacci retrace price (from 396 to the 644 high), and it was at 521 just two sessions ago. Strange times indeed.

Update 9:41 am FAZ reached higher, above 27.40, before pulling back some to 27.29. My stop loss target has been raised three times already. Maybe four.

Greece's former PM feels no obligation to toe the party line, the EU line, the ECB line, any line. His words today are fuel for the fire on financials like JPM, which is now sub 34 (33.93) and eroding.

BBC (video): Papandreou: Greek euro exit would 'destroy' economy (May 22)

Updated 9:52 am Out of FAZ at 27.33 (+0.48/share). Sticking to price discipline even though FAZ could easily open tomorrow above 27.50 or even 28.00 with the way the whole Greek bank run/Eurozone paranoia is shaking out. Just had to secure a decent profit before traders do the same in these final minutes before the bell.

Might try a very small position right before the bell to play tomorrow's scenario. Just don't see the Greeks coming to any kind of compromise with eurozone. It's too early for the new politicians.

Updated 12:32 pm In all, I changed my stop loss on FAZ eight times in that last trade. It was worth it each time.

Machines rule earth

7:44 am (Hawaii) I woke up early enough to get out of DGP at 47.74, taking a small loss (-0.46/share) on a weird open. I was totally worn out by this cold and sleep debt though, and crashed out until now. The indices are up and strangely enough, internet/social stocks started poorly and spiked after that roughly 30 minutes in. YELP, for example, sank to 16+ but rose to 20 or so.

FB is down 9% to 34.79, but it was at 33 earlier. AAPL is up 4.4$ to 553. It hit a recent low of 521+ on Friday and closed that day at 530. FAS is up 2.6% though JPM is down 2.7%.

Strange day, indeed. DGP has drifted, still red, now at 48.00. The G8 effect has been minimal, did little to help bulls or bears. gold bugs or bank haters.

Volume is weak. AAPL volume is at 15M+ shares; it was at 26M+ on Friday.

The machines are in control. Again. I suppose this is the one thing that was generally agreed upon at Camp David over the weekend. It feels like melt-up time again.

Windup Wednesday (updated 12:29 pm)

3:34 am (Hawaii) Feels like a pitcher on the mound, finally out of the dugout and throwing his first few pitches. I had bet against that hurler, thinking he'd get hit and hit deep by Europe. But the market is net positive this morning. Green everywhere. It's probably more of a dead cat bounce than anything, but it was enough to chase me out of my position in FAZ at 24.60, taking a loss of 0.70/share. That's a small loss, but it's still a loss and the losses are racking up.

Of course, soon as I sold, FAZ bounced right up to 24.82. So this rally isn't going straight up. Looks and feels more like a range bound move. Still holding GSVC, down a dime or so, not bad.

Update 5:09 am Still holding GSVC, which rallied off its low and is hovering at 18.25. FAZ exploded in the past 7 minutes from sub-25 to 25.27. In other words, had I held, I'd be almost break even.

Dow Jones nearly gave back all of its gains, was at +7 a minute ago. Are the algos buying up dips today? AAPL barely in the green. GRPN exploded to 13+ before pulling back to 12.65.

Update 5:23 am Bloomberg reporting that the ECB will not enact stimulus until June or July. That may explain the jump in FAZ and the selloff in the indices. Or not. Long FAZ at 25.10.

Update 7:10 am Reggie Middleton talked about insolvency in the banksters long ago and he's still right. This video is from around New Year's. He'll continue to be right until the next QE.

 

Update 7:46 am Indices biting the dust again. This has been far more predictable than I ever imagined. Wish I'd noticed the pattern sooner. Interesting piece on a Lehman/Greece comparison. But seeing AAPL plunge from 551 to 546 in the last several minutes is a stunner. I've anticipated AAPL doing a Fibonacci retrace to 546 and here it is. 

Update 8:16 am FAZ running above 25.60 as traders pile on the banksters. Below, the string of afternoon (Eastern time) upswings by FAZ.

Indices are fractionally down, AAPL still holding on at 546.

Update 9:20 am JPM was in the green much of the day, now struggling to stay above 35. That's rock bottom and it will probably dip a little more and remain stagnant for some time. AAPL at 541 ... spooky. This morning, when I sold FAZ (for a small loss), 70% of my Debt Spiral Dance (banksters) list was green. Now? It's 19% green, 76% red. Fugly, indeed.

FAZ his at 25.99. That's green for me, but the downturn in the indices means GSVC sold off in a fugly way, so I'm net down for the day so far.

Update 9:32 am Out of FAZ at 25.95, locked in profit of 0.85/share. There's plenty of upside from here, but 1) there's a huuuge load of shares waiting on the sell block at 25.98, 25.99, 26.00, and 2) this will likely sell into the close as traders rake in profits, and 3) I don't want to hold this overnight again.

This puts me just barely over break even for the day on closed trades. I still have GSVC sitting out there at 17.78, down from my buy yesterday at 18.35. Fugggly.

Update 12:29 pm All kinds of coverage of David Einhorn at the hedge fund conference in NYC. He doesn't say anything about HLF and it spikes 9%. He pans a few other stocks, they crash (get halted too). He raves about AAPL and it goes from 542 to 546 in the final minutes before the close.

Friday flutter (updated)

2:53 am (Hawaii) AAPL has slid from 567 to 563+ in premarket. FAZ remains above 24, but there's been no move back to 24.50, which is where it was in afterhours trading yesterday. Less than an hour before the opening bell, 67% of my main watch list is red, albeit many of them don't trade at all before the bell.

Various scenarios could play out.

A. The market is long overdue for a bounce, and the JPMorgan debacle simply gives it a chance to capitulate (barf out remaining toxins) for the near term, bottom out and move higher

B. The market absorbs the JPMorgan-induced fears and refuses to crater, but also refuses to rally. A lingering fever with flu symptoms, so to speak

C. The machines are ordered to trade higher immediately, as has been the case in the mornings recently, before selling off in the afternoon.

C appears possible especially since it's a Friday and holding anything long over the weekend is not going to be a popular strategy.

There is, of course, a D. That would be a flush-out with the opening bell that stays down for the count through the entire day, and additional selling near the closing bell as traders run for the hills with Europe in flux and domestic financials unable (or unwilling) to guarantee that there will be no further JPMorgan-like screwups leading to losses in the beeeeeeeeeellions.

I'm not married to any of these or other possibilities. Must lock in and capture profits. Period.

Still long FAZ. For now.

Update 2:51 am Interesting that an NBC host is saying this morning that Dimon is still upset with the White House, yadayadayada ... seriously. After the environment that allowed Wall St to rake in huge profits and still get bailed out, that's ludicrous.

This can't end well for most of the banksters, though I doubt the bosses on top ever do time in lockdown.

Update 4:18 am out of FAZ at 23.48, a loss of 0.18 per. Small, small loss. But that's not relevant. What's relevant is I didn't pull the sell trigger while it sat there hovering around 24.12 after the opening bell. I was not prepared to see it go from 24.30+ just before the opening bell to 24.10+ at the bell. Plenty of sellers, should've anticipated that. 

But I contemplated adding more. I felt 24 was going to be a new floor instead of sticking to price discipline. So instead of a decent profit, it turned into a small (paper) profit. And when it couldn't hold 24, it was a nosedive to 23.60. I held through a couple of dips below 23.50 and finally got out. The indices are turning green, which means the whole JPMorgan mess didn't spur a major selloff, but may have completed (temporarily) the recent downturn. 

It's annoying to say the least. But JPM has held above 37, AAPL is back to 570 and FAS, which was below 90 earlier, is now at 93.20. 

FAZ is at 23.32 now, still up 2% for the day. But until more banks confess their derivative sins, buyers will keep pouring in. Maybe. 

So, it seems A and C are still in play. The sellers are out of product and buyers are waiting eagerly (A). Or the machines are buying up the market and will sell it off in the afternoon (C).

Nowhere does it seem possible the market heads lower, not if it can gulp down JPMorgan's mess and move up.

Update 11:15 am Indices were green for a majority of the day, then sold off toward the close. Nasdaq finished barely positive (+0.01%) while Dow was -34 (-0.27%) and S&P was -4.6 (-0.34%). Essentially, they were flat.

Business Insider reported that Fitch downgraded JPMorgan, which is interesting. Why Fitch and nobody else? How much fear is there of Dimon and his minions? People may despise the banksters, but he is what he is and he's usually fantastically good at it in a way that requires doses of finesse, outright thuggery and charisma. In other words, he would've been a hell of a mafia boss.

Mike Khow of Options Action suggested that ZNGA is one way to play the Facebook IPO. Said that Zynga is trying to steer its users to the company's website, to capture more ad revenue, etc. Still not touching that. Just like GSVC, which had a huge gap down to 16 today (from 18+) and rallied to 17+. It sold off on ... what? JPMorgan news? Are you kidding me?

Maybe I get a few shares of GSVC the next time it touches 16. But with FB so focused on its own game (yeah, Zuckerberg and his hoodie were a basic F-You to Wall St), it clearly didn't help FB plays like GSVC and SVVC much this week. They both were up big already this year, so buying GSVC at 18+ (I've done it) is an act of greed, to a degree.

But, the day is about done and the lesson is clearer than ever: Take profits quickly. As soon as I held FAZ more than overnight, for more than a few hours (or minutes), it loses footing and falls through the ice. During the latest run (in the past 24 hours), I've owned it twice and had two very small losses. Both times, I had decent paper profits.

Back in FAZ before the closing bell. We're only 1/3 of the way through May and there's no clear catalyst in sight for the rest of the month. If Europe's financial disaster gets a little fixed up over the weekend, I'm ready with some gunpowder to load up long. But Greece doesn't fix anything soon with that cast of characters.

Update 11:31 am AAPL ran from 561+ to 574+ this morning during the post-JPM rally. Then it sold off back to 566+. I still anticipate a pullback to 546 (Fibonacci retrace). Apple had a little iCloud leak/peak today, and there was talk on CNBC about the Apple TV, a supposedly leak from Foxconn in China.

Turning point Thursday (updated)

Or maybe it's no turning point at all. The market's been down for so many days. It hardly even matters if it's decidedly bearish for awhile. Technically, it's due for a bounce. That's why I was hesitant about going long FAZ (in other words, short financials) after hours yesterday.

It worked nice in a tiny way, jumping from 23.17 to 23.40 or so, but this morning, FAZ is at 22.64 and I got out. I'm not stubborn enough anymore to ride out something like this (3x ETF) in this kind of skittish, fickle environment. If the market rallies in the near term, maybe FAZ will be available below 22 or 21 at some point (again).

AAPL, which I bought at 567+ and sold at 561+ earlier in the week, is now at 574+ premarket. When it moves with massive volume, I'll be convinced (maybe) that it's going somewhere. For now, just flopping on the table.

FAZ as a hedge of sorts when long AAPL works fairly well. FAZ as a stand-alone, not so good.

Update 10:46 am The pros and cons of stop loss orders. I got a handful of FAZ before the bell at 22.88. It ran to 23.07. Tried to sell before the bell, didn't sell. After hours, I put in a stop-loss limit sell order at 22.93, but it sank to 22.55. I decided to wait it out since the selling (and previous buying) looked like big money was just playing the weak hands.

Then a few minutes ago, news got out that JPM possibly has $4.2 billion in legal losses. FAZ jumped to 23.20 and kept going (to 23.70). Totally forgot about that sell order. So in reality, instead of a nice, quick profit, I was out just barely above break even.

The thing with stop losses and limit orders is that it should be maneuvered before price action gets to that level, not at the same general time. Otherwise, it's time to cancel it and set a new order, or change it. Being distracted by work doesn't help, of course.

FAZ now at 23.68, not really interested in chasing here, but this is huge news.

Update 11:07 am Back in FAZ at 23.66, watching closely. CNBC says JPM will talk at 5:30 Eastern. Fast Money boys not mincing words, tomorrow will likely be a rough day for financials. Adami believes it's not just JPMorgan that has a "whale" or prop trading disaster on hand.

FAZ now at 23.96.

Update 11:19 am Willing to see how this shakes out tomorrow. JPM's not saying anything that can reverse the bad momentum. FAZ now at 24.25 and gaining a new wave of momo.

Wild Wednesday (updated)

3:43 am (Hawaii) No truce in sight over the other side of the pond. Europe still frazzled and puzzled without a clear solution in sight, though it's inevitable after all this drama that stimulus will be the result. I sold GSVC at a small loss (17.98), sill holding AAPL, which is off its low (561+). FAZ is up 3% and I'm holding that too. The market seems to want to bounce here, so I'm leery of holding anything like FAZ. This is probably the last time in awhile I'll dip into GSVC; the small caps are getting squashed and AAPL is more prime to recover from this dip than anything else. Already back to 566.

Update 4:17 am Out of AAPL at 562. Tiny position, so the loss was miniscule. Market just doesn't have the push, buyers staying out, and AAPL's Fib retrace (546) is still in play, my guess. Still holding FAZ.

Update 4:39 am Out of FAZ at 23.53. Not quite the top, but it's teetering and I took the 4.4% gain. That leaves me at break even for this morning after the small losses on AAPL and GSVC. FAZ was my smallest position, so that insurance was welcome.

No idea where the market goes from here. After all these down days, a bounce would seem logical, but I'm not counting on that or anything else.

Update 10:01 am Back in FAZ, small position, at 23.17. (17 for Jeremy Lin, who is reportedly warming up for today's playoff game). No other positions, so this isn't a psuedo hedge like it was yesterday through this morning. I got some sleep through the session and was surprised to see AAPL moving to 572+ and GSVC rise to 18.50. AAPL is due for a bounce, but it will always depend on the institutional money, not us retail guys. And GSVC's move was very suspicious; it ran from sub 18 to mid 18 in a span of just 3 or 4 minutes. Then it sold off back to 18, then sub 18 within a few minutes. (GSVC is at 17.70 after hours.) There's a lot of funny money in there, big boys just using the market and the little guys like toys. So I leave that alone for now.

Same with ZAGG. I don't touch it, not with all the controversy, even though the product is gaining reach (via Wal-Mart, other big box stores). Too many tentacles on that thing.

Until Europe shows sign of maturity, the banksters are hanging on the edges of cliffs. Once talk of stimulus returns, I'll be happy go (and stay) long AAPL and FAS.