Microsoft, travel and thinness (updated)

7:48 am (Hawaii) Barnes & Noble is up 61% on Microsoft's play for the Nook tablet. I like visiting B&N locally, but as an investment, it's been a dud for years going back to the war with Amazon. Now BKS is at 22.14, off its high today of 26, after Microsoft's move. 

Whitney Tilson was on Fast Money. He went long BKS last week, says it was 87% short. That's incredible and explains the run today. He says BKS was much less a value play at 26, but is "very attractive" at 22. Total of $605 mil from Microsoft. 

Also surprised by the move in EXPE, up 7.3% on top of last week's gain. All three indices are in the red moderately, and EXPE is up almost 3 bucks to 43.26. 

ZAGG, one of the AAPL plays, is up 6.7% to 13.11. I had my eyes on this last week at 11.99 and 12.29 and opted to wait until today. So even with a down market, ZAGG is rising fast with earnings due Thursday. 

AMZN is up another 2.5% to 232.41. I sold this at 219 last week, and the P/E is outlandish. The questions about the company's accounting maneuvers are not holding this back, it seems. 

AAPL is down 2.5% to 587.92 after one of the New York newspapers blasted the company for its tax strategy. Legal, but chastised anyway. I still would like to see AAPL at 546 (Fibonacci retrace), and with big money chasing other trades, it still might happen. AAPL got down to 555 last week before spiking. 

Light volume overall. No catalyst in the near term. Just a cool morning and an opportunity to sip a beverage, get work done and wait patiently. That would not be Monster energy drink (MNST), though, which is up 10% on rumored buyout talks (Coca-Cola) worth as much as $15 billion.

Update 8:19 am Fib retrace for BKS (based on today's gain off Friday's close) is 21.29. It sold off early in the day off the humongous gain down to 21.75. This was a broke company with negative EPS before this deal. Watching but not touching.

MNST Fib retrace is at 76.56, which it has breached easily. It got down to 71.47 before moving back to its current level at 76+.

Update 11:05 am I liked ZAGG on Friday, but didn't enter because of weekend wackiness worries in the general market. I passed at 11.99. ZAGG, an Apple play, closed up 6% today in a down market. Earnings out on Thursday; anticipation is high. But this run-up might translate into a selloff on the news. Today, ZAGG's intraday high was 13.27. A Fib retrace would've been at 12.89, and sure enough, the stock pulled back to 12.90 mid-day. I entered a half position at 13.02 just before the close.

This comes with some risk, of course. ZAGG has made a massive move from 10.66 at the close last Tuesday. That's a gain of more than 24% to today's high. How much upside is left? If today's modest pullback was a breather and the market takes off tomorrow and/or Wednesday, it would probably be good for ZAGG and other earnings plays. But I don't view this is a long-term hold, though maybe I should. Closing no doors just yet.

Update 11:40 am More info on ZAGG.

P/E 20.68, forward P/E 12.77
Shares outstanding: 30.04M
Float: 21.93M
Short interest: 47.7% (of float)

Tie that together with the Apple relationship and it's no wonder this has been combustible. ZAGG hit a one-year high of 17.10 on Aug 15 last year, just nine days after it had dipped to 11.40. But that's not the one-year low; the low of 6.67 was on Dec 28. This is a radical stock. Question is when to get out, and that answer will be dictated by price action and trading discipline. In other words, a decision would be best determined by stop loss rather than panic and/or greed.

Cobwebs and scopes

8:40 am (Hawaii) Well that was a waste of half a morning. Getting up (or staying up) early this week caught up with me. I slept right through what turned out to be an interesting open. AAPL has been stagnant, now bordering on 601 and possibly lower. The big money is playing everywhere else. EXPE opened at 39.20 and ran to 43; it was at 32 at the closing bell yesterday. AMZN, which I bought at 220 and sold at 219 afterhours yesterday in a pure chickenshit move, opened at 224.83 and ran to 228.69. Now at 225.37 after selling off to 220.22. It just won't die or pull back below 220, though it closed yesterday at 195.99 (before earnings were released). Was it accounting deception that produced a $0.28 quarter (versus $0.07 expectation)? Not a worry at all, not to traders.

Still keeping a close eye on SWKS, CRUS and ZAGG. The latter reports on May 3, CRUS has a tasty P/E (still below 13) despite the run-up. PCLN is riding EXPE's coattail, up 3.4% today. Tough to hold anything into next week; I want a selloff day to get cheaper prices. ZAGG below 12 would be nice; it was at 11.82 earlier. While I slept. Now at 12.29, up 2.5%.

Even GVSC, which got pounded yesterday, is up 4.1% to 17.65. Thinly traded issues (403k so far today) are too annoying. Indices pared down in the past 30 minutes. Maybe I'll get the prices I like. Careful out there.

Update 9:11 am So how is it possible that Spain gets downgraded/degraded and the market blows it off completely (after an early swoon)? This shit doesn't disappear in the long term. For now though it's just a rowdy boy at the fair. Drunkard at the carnival. They kick him out and he's ignored until his return. But he will return. That's what makes a buy of ZAGG or PCLN (May 9 earnings) difficult on this day, Apr 27. Plenty can hit the market between now and then. ZAGG and PCLN could still explode then. But it may ride lower before that. Or more likely both will simply climb (like today) on anticipation and peak out by earnings day. 

Price action dictates. And if/when the market gets rattled by the usual May fear, there won't be much reprieve for those holding the bag. 

So all's good when it comes to Spain, right? For today, the answer's yes. 

If you think bankers tell the truth, see what Santander's CEO claimed today. 

Discount hunting (updated 10:58 am HST)

I want my price. Will these pull back just enough?

(Closing price to premarket high Fibonacci levels)
AAPL 595 (unlikely)
CRUS 24.45 (blowout earnings report yesterday after the bell)
FAZ 21.64 (possible)

FAZ trades on such light volume premarket. It's at 21.74 right now and could easily swing down to 21.64. It's up, I believe, on Europe weakness (as usual). I don't see AAPL dipping below 600. Jobless numbers were weak and barely affected the market, didn't harm AAPL one bit.

DGP and AGQ are green this morning, but not going there. Not today. Other "Apple tree" plays like BRCM, QCOM, SWKS are interesting. Keeping an eye on those.

Update 3:35 am (Hawaii) Holey moley, what a wacky, whacked OUT open. AAPL zoomed to 614+ two minutes before the bell, then fell to 611 after the open and below. FAZ sank all the way to 21.60 and has dropped below 21.50. It's cheap as I wanted, but I'm never entering something that sells off that harshly (re: ugly candles on the chart). There's something going on and I don't want to tread in that swamp. (Now 21.39!)

Indices are flat, slightly green. But really, what are FAS and the finnies doing afloat when Europe is so fucked? Meanwhile, CRUS is exploding, now 26.09, parabolic in these first several minutes. Will not chase. Waiting for a dip.

New fib # in CRUS is 25.07. Patience required.

Update 3:46 am CRUS finally dipping from its 12+% high this morning. Did a little homework and Cirrus has a trailing P/E of 10, forward P/E of 11. Discount to the max. This is almost too good to be true, the need for Cirrus' parts in Apple iPads. Add in these factors: Float of only 64 million shares and short interest of more than 10 mil. Explains the big bounce today.

Update 9:35 am Stayed up long as I could before getting some sleep the past few hours. CRUS almost came down to the 35.30s level (Fib retrace), but not quite. It's now near the day's high at 27.32, up more than 18%. The short covering hasn't ended, I guess. Incredible. But I won't chase. 

ZAGG, which announces earnings in one week, is at 12.05 (+5%). That's more interesting as a chance to ride momentum, but I don't want to chase. AAPL sank to 602+ but rallied to 610 (break even for the day). Then it slid to 607-608 in the last few minutes. 

The indices are all green (+0.7 to 0.9%) with 20+ minutes left in the session. Market is totally setting Europe issues aside, even ignoring today's lack of earnings beats. It's an iPad hysteria society from the US to Beijing. My job is simply to buy low and sell high, like the janitor at a high class party for rich, drunk frat boys and sorority girls, just picking up expensive jewelry that's fallen to the floor. 

Update 10:15 am Speaking of discounts, SBUX has cratered in after-hour trading after beating estimates by a single penny. A lot of disappointment on Twitter, but apparently earnings were nowhere near consensus estimates. I know it's tempting to sit in a Starbucks with the Apple lapptop on, sipping a favorite concoction feeling like AAPL and SBUX are the fricking bomb.

But unlike AAPL, SBUX did not destroy any estimate whatsoever. It went from an intraday high above 61 to 57+ after the news. Now at 58.10. This is one of those situations that guru StockGuy22 might pouce on. He's great at recognizing an oversold or overbought situation and profiting. But I don't know if he likes this. I spend way too much money at Starbucks. Though they're usually busy and crowded — the one in Mililani was packed at 10 pm yesterday — a 1¢ beat means they're no AAPL.

Update 10:30 am Now it's DECK that disappoints the bulls. Seems to be one of those late-in-the-week earnings are the Debbie Downer stocks, while the early-in-week earnings (AAPL, et al) were the gainers.

But as I type that, AMZN has beaten estimates solidly and is trading at 200, up from 195. Zooming higher. Now 204, 205. Yowza. $0.28 vs. $0.07. Wipeout.

Update 10:34 am SWKS (Apple play) is also up big after hours, now 27.02 after closing at 25.54. Just don't know enough about this company to step in.

Update 10:58 am That was a bit childish. I missed AMZN on the news at 200, 205, 210, 213. Got in at 220.50 and sold back right below 220, spooked out. But it's holding above 220. Major, major short covering. It'll be tempting to re-enter before afterhours trading ends for a probable bounce in the morning.

The Apple effect is golden

Does someone here want an iPad?

7:35 am (Hawaii) You can probably remember the sight of AAPL going up dramatically - from 80 to 200 in one year, for example - only to sell off drastically. You made a great realized or paper profit, wondering what was the justification for a selloff. Sometimes, it was about profit-taking. Sometimes, it was about hedge funds on the verge of collapse, having to raise case (from profitable trade) immediately.

I think gold (down 2.1% to 1,776/oz) and silver (down 4.1% to 39.15) are selling off in this down session for that reason. The hedgies are desperate to raise cash, and they realize they can always go back into gold, particularly, at another time. I woke up a few minutes ago to find the Dow Jones down 255 points. Not a shock since futures were down more than 100 points when I hit the sack last night.

What is a surprise is that AAPL is at 408 after hitting an all-time high of 411. The only news I found in a brief search is that 1 in 6 Americans are now using an electronic reading device. I suppose that's bullish for AAPL and AMZN. But trading in this cut-throat environment means there will eventually - later today? - be immense profit-taking in those two. Last one out, rotten egg.

My Regular watch list is 20% green. TVIX, EDZ, FAZ (+8.7%), ZSL, TZA, VXX ... it looks like 2008 or '09. CMG, GMCR, TLT, AAPL and LULU are also up more than 2%. SBUX is 1.9% up.

My Metals watch list is basically the same, 21% green. FAZ, ZSL, SCO, are the few leaders. ZSL is up 6.6% and DZZ is up 1.8%. Silver continues to be shorted by the banksters, probably the same banksters who claim to be long gold. They are stuck with these immense short positions (JPM), so what else would they do?

I might actually turn on the TV this morning, but they were chattering about Greek default and yadayada yesterday. It's probably more of the same Euro debt crisis/contagion fear. US Dollar up 1.5% to 77.78 and Euro is down 1.1% to 1.36. The FOMC meets on the 21st (Wednesday). I do not want to be extended in any way until after that meeting. Staying all cash for now.

There goes AAPL, back up to 409.90.

Photo: MKT 300 Rodgers

No burying gold for long

photo: MSNBC

10:36 am (Hawaii) Gold continues to show a tendency to quietly draw attention from near and far, high and low. Spot is at 1567, slightly off its high of the day. Spot silver recovered some today after yesterday's butchery by CME mafia. It opened lower, giving friends of JP Morgan and the govt ample opportunity to collect more silver at discounted prices. Why offer your friends a gift at all-time highs (50+) when you can give them a price at a 30% discount (35)? Yeah, it's a theory, but until we straighten things out with our creditors, there's no quicker way to appease them than by keeping silver price low as possible without inciting deadly riots in every major American city.

It's one of the few mechanisms left to the puppet masters, so applaud them for their concerted, if short-sighted attempts. Thank them for lower physical prices.

The flight to gold helped miners, naturally. XG ran as high as 14.67 before pulling back a bit as daytraders cashed out. The presence of metal royalty like Eric Sprott in the stock only solidifies the foundation. Getting out of AGQ yesterday and holding XG didn't take much thought. They — the puppeteers — will bitch slap silver in a way that they would never do to gold for very long.

XG up 3.3% (14.50 afterhours). DGP up 1.5% to 50.79. I've held this through some minor ups and downs. No plans to sell in the near term.

After rallying to the plus side, the indices finished down. DJ -58.88 (-0.5%), Nas -20.71 (-0.7%), S&P -5.85 (-0.4%).

AAPL finished down by a fraction after being up most of the day. AMZN, also down fractionally. BIDU down 2.3% after a nice run. Also down just by a hair, NFLX (290.50).

As for the banksters: NBG (+2.5%), BBVA (+0.8%) were up. IRE (-3.8%), C (-1.8%), BAC (-1.3%), GS (-1.2%). FAZ swung from a big early gain down into the red before finishing at 46.80 (+0.8%). Moody's downgrade Ireland govt bonds today. Story in the NY Times.

This is the roller coaster of trading in — for or against — bank stocks. Anything can alter direction. I would love to be a zillionaire and bet on FAZ big time, not worry about a paper loss for a day or two. I don't have that luxury, so I sit here and whine about it on a blog. Though Obama is long treasurys, I still wouldn't bet on the banksters with my own money. There is no long-term solution to the currency/inflation crisis. Just a bunch of stop-gap tactics.

I wish I still had my shares of FAZ at 43.33. End whine.

Breakfast Links?

3:49 am (Hawaii) LinkedIn's IPO price was $45, but CNBC is reporting that it's jacked up in a crowded-as-heck trading floor in NYC to $85. Sure smells like 1998 all over again. It isn't exactly as bad; at least LNKD had $3 mil in profit last year. Back in the dotcom bubble era, there were 10 bombs for every AOL or AMZN or EBAY or YHOO. So many companies that were bleeding money.

If LNKD opens at 85, it has nowhere to go but down. Good luck if you buy above 100. The profit-takers are going to exit the theater long before it catches on fire and the roof comes down on bagholders. Back when GOOG was an IPO, the best time to enter was a few months after the debut, when shares plummeted. Then it ran and ran and ran.

Whatever the case, this will make for great entertainment. Maybe a circus. Even AGQ might not be as hyper as LNKD, just for today.

Update 4:07 am (Hawaii) Freakalytics estimates LNKD's float at roughly 94.5 mil shares. LNKD went from 83 to 92.99 to 84.43 in less than 10 minutes. Just watching and being entertained here. 100% cash.

Freakalytics: LNKD analysis, insights (May 19 2011)

Is the coast clear yet?

Denise Milani

7:35 am (Hawaii) Apparently so. The Fed's minutes are generically status quo. I saw SLV explode from 44.20 (pre-minutes) to 44.85 or so with seven or eight minutes. During that time, when SLV pulled back, I kept thinking 44.24 as an entry point, which is precisely where it came back to. (Why 44.24? I did quick math in my head and a Fibonacci retrace of 38.2% of the gain between 44.20 and 44.85 was roughly 44.24.) But I didn't pull the trigger. And of course, SLV ran back up and continued to 44.85. I eventually entered at 44.75 and sat through a dip below 44.50. SLV now at 44.90 (HOD 44.99).

Yup, Spot Silver is benefiting and GLD is up, too (+1.1% to 147.96).

Bernankepalooza has made happy traders of bulls, not so much of bears. The market's response has been lukewarm. 54% of my watch list is green, but of the winners, they're big winners. RLOC (+31.3% to 23.63), EXK (+6% to 11.31), AMZN (+5.9% to 193.29), SLW (+4.2% to 40.83), CLNE (+4% to 17.07), PSLV (+4% to 20.97), ACQ (+3.7% to 330.22).

Yep, the miners are finally coming home to roost. PAAS and PHYS are also up. AAPL is still down for the day, while X (-4.3%), AMRN (-3.4%), WNR (-2.7%) and RIG (-2.6%) are plodding.

It would be a shock to the market if Big Ben said anything beyond what the minutes offered. Nothing is guaranteed. It's a 90% lock he'll be neutral and stick to the minutes script. That 10% is, of course, spooky for newly minted bulls.

Silver train

Update 9:29 am (Hawaii) As expected, Bernankepalooza went without a hitch. Big Ben assured planet earth that there's no real inflation, all systems are status quo/go and the market responded as such. Spot Silver and silver plays fluctuated during the 40-minute speech, but with the coast very clear now, it is trading at 47.72. SLV has been racing higher, giving back, racing higher, giving back and is now at 46.78, right about its HOD. YES, SLV is trading higher than the -2.5% conversion to Spot, but I'm not complaining.

The only thing that remains close to a 90% guess is that BM/JPM will not issue a bear raid for now. As in the next hour. After that, who knows...

Update 10:06 am (Hawaii) Still 32% cash in my little roll. SLV hit a high of 47.15, currently 46.91 after hours. Might deploy some cash into AGQ (ultra silver ETF) and/or SLW. If there ever was a green light for Spot Silver, now would be the time. I'm 99% positive Asia will push Spot (currently 48.04) higher. What happens after Asia closes and New York opens at 7:30 am Eastern, that's another scenario.

SLV just dropped from 46.85-46.90 to 46.65. Never a dull moment.

Silver with attitude

Update 2:56 pm (Hawaii) Not feeling incredibly confident at this point, but I made the decision and there's nothing that can be done. I'm sticking with my position in SLV overnight, which means 1) Hong Kong could buy it up like crazy, and so far Spot Silver is up to 48.40 in the first 30 minutes or so of trading there, and 2) New York could take Spot tomorrow morning and mutilate it. Odds are in favor of a rise overseas, but I'm not comfortable. I could've sold afterhours for a tidy profit; at SLV's high of 47.56, I could've banked roughly 2.80 in profit. Instead, it's time to let a winner run. In fact, I almost opened a second position in AGQ, which went from 358 during the doldrums of afterhours trading to 370. A small position would've been a nice trade. But I stayed put. 

Busy afternoon and evening ahead, so I won't be able to watch Spot run. Just as well. Nothing I can do about it until 2 am Hawaii time. My leanings and beliefs are only stronger because of the wealth of knowledge out there regarding Spot Silver, SLV (always iffy), the Fed, Spot Gold, etc. This trader is in need of some stress relief, like exercise. A long walk. 

Hong Kong

Teetering Tuesday

AMZN kookiness: earnings report reaction

10:42 am (Hawaii) Somewhere between today and tomorrow, bets will be placed. Educated guesses. Misinformed hunches. All that stuff. Somewhere, Spot Silver will re-establish 44-45 as support and launch into unmarked territory, price adjusted for inflation (1980 spot at $50 would be $138 today) or not. OR SPOT will wobble with any talk by Bernanke tomorrow about a stronger dollar, and plunge to 40. Those scenarios are okay with me, since I'm completely out. But those are just two possible scenarios. 

The market is skittish. Traders are as coiled to panic or exude bliss as ever. Look at AMZN, which traded up to 183, then down to 171 and back up to 184 within minutes after releasing its earnings report after the bell. 

Does this make any sense? I almost opened a small position at 172, taking the StockGuy22 approach to bounces after a selloff. I talked myself out of it, but the spectacle that followed was incredible nonetheless. That would've been a quick, sizable profit. But I'm not a big AMZN fan, so it didn't happen. (Being a fan should have nothing to do with a trade, but that's something I'm working on.) 

Spot Silver is trading above 45, and I don't know what time PM options expiry actually comes due today. If it's pegged to 45 as it appears, it's crunch time.

Update 11:06 am (Hawaii) Spot silver now at 45.50. Turd predicts a selloff before tomorrow's Bernakepalooza. Just watching for now.

Update 11:13 am (Hawaii) Though China is the driver of Spot Silver's rise, I can't help but wonder what happens as paper silver traders — who have been a big part of the metal's appeal and allure, just look at SLV move while miners flop — start to turn "fiat" into physical. Over time, as Spot rises, paper traders will opt for physical. That will add to demand, no question, but as physical silver/spot begins to behave like physical gold, in a sense — something to hoard and store away — the trading element that has driven this market short term will be diminished. That's one thing I can't help but wonder about. Of course, if China keeps buying and buying, paper trading will matter less and less. Or will it?

China vs. JP Morgan/Fed. It's the heavyweight battle of the year.

Update 12:05 pm (Hawaii) SLV stayed below 44 until a few minutes ago, when Globex reopened and Spot Silver remained above 45.50. Immediately, at 6 pm Eastern, Spot surged to 44.30 and has gone to 44.60 since. Currently, Spot is 45.65, which converts to 44.50 for SLV, and that's what's happened in the past minute. SLV has come back down and is trading at 44.47. This conversion has been consistent, with SLV trading at -2.5% to Spot.

Update 2:27 pm (Hawaii) Spot silver rose above 46 from 45.50 as Sydney opened. With Hong Kong opening, as well, if there's going to be an orderly bounce from the selloff low (from 49.81 to 44.80 or so), this would be the time. However, I agree with Turd Ferguson, who expects another takedown in the works overnight. I'd love to play silver via SLV if spot can get down to 44 or 43.50 or lower. Can't say I'm totally expecting it.

The market ran upward today as if to say, 'We expect Bernanke to leave things alone.' Which he could. But I'm content to stay out of the game 100% for now. A small position in silver would be okay, too, but I'm more leery here than I was over the weekend.

Update 2:56 pm (Hawaii) Sydney and HK are keeping Spot above 46. It was interesting to see SLV jack up above 45 earlier while Spot was at 46, meaning SLV was above the conversion level, running higher into the close of afterhours trading in the US. Momentum. The market has spoken and it believes whatever happens tomorrow is bullish for the market.

Whatever happens, China holds the trump cards, and that's good for gold and silver.

Bumpy hump day

Somehow, we'll survive

9:11 am (Hawaii). One of these days, my sleep cycle will adjust and I'll sleep from 9 pm to 4 am, getting a reasonable amount of sleep before the opening bell. Until then, I'm not awake until midway through the session. Not that I'm missing a lot.

Less than two hours until the closing bell and stocks are a mixed bag. Oil and silver have cooled off significantly this week. Oil futures keep getting shot down below 105 despite violence and turmoil in Libya and neighboring states. The stabilization, however precarious, of crude oil prices has allowed some equities to move forward.

GMCR 43.84 (+7.2%), CSTR 43.27 (+2.6%), NGD 10.59 (+2.4%), LULU 76.45 (+1.6%), AMZN 169.47 (+1.6%)

Smells like retailers are getting some bang for their springtime buck, but they're at the mercy of Middle East madness.

TVIX is also up there, to no surprise, with a 3% gain to 44.72. NGD is up 2.2% (10.57) even though gold is basically flat as a whole.

42% of my watch list is in the green; 56% red.

SLV is up fractionally, but SLW is down again, losing 1.4% so far (44.04). Silver futures have bobbed and weaved at the 36 level today. The mad rush to get in has reversed this week. Was it just a mania? Or is this a short pause on the way to 50? I'm not risking my hard-earned, inflation-ridden dollars to find out.

IPI (-3.7%), EXK (-3.2%), PAAS (-2.9%), X (-2.7%) and FCX (-2.4%) are the big losers on my watch list so far. That's an ag, two silver plays, a steel and a copper. Whether we believe the top is in or not for silver is irrelevant. It's getting sandbagged on every thrust toward a new high and the puppetmasters keep tying new knots on those thinning strings.

AAPL is hanging on at 352.42, off its LOD (350.60). Can a lousy market knock AAPL off its feet as the iPad 2 hits stores Friday afternoon?

Still 100% cash and watching with trusty binoculars from the rafters.

Hump day reading
Cafe Americain: Harvey Organ: targets $2,000 gold and $125 silver (Mar 9 2011)

Skittish you are

The market is looking quite uncertain this morning. It began with crude oil futures spiking over 102, then brought back to 99 by the opening bell. I'm looking for a retrace by UCO to 12.87 (50% of today's premarket gain) before I dip in. I got lots of rest overnight, even with the aches and threat of a bad flu. Show must go on.

There are equities in the green — MOS, GLD, X, FCX. Also some big NASDAQ names like AAPL, AMZN, BIDU. An AAPL retrace to 343.98 is interesting (currently 343.53). And UCO is bouncing off 12.80 now.

SLW got knocked down this morning as silver futures took a big hit just before the opening bell. Funny how that happens.

Update: 5:20 am (Hawaii). UCO nosediving a bit here, now 12.74. Immediate support at 12.67, also support at 11.60, but if this fills the gap from the past week, it could sink as low as 11.

Update, 1:26 pm (Hawaii). Just woke up a few minutes ago, catching up on today's moves. Holy crude. UCO hovered in the 12.80s until 2:01 pm Eastern, then fell off a cliff and didn't stop until 11.91 90 minutes later. (Now trading at 12.22 AH.) Brutal. I'm thankful that I stayed out of the market. Again. Fast Money saying that margins were increased, that this made a huge difference, more than the terror in Libya, the assurances of the Saudis, etc.

Also amazing to see SLW drop even lower than it was when I fell asleep. LOD was 38.38, now at 38.60 AH. SLV, which I no longer trust, began its decline at 2:13 Eastern — 12 minutes after UCO nosedived — and went from 32.44 to 30.95 by 3:18 pm Eastern. Now at 32.55 AH.

Market finished generally flat. DJ -0.3%, S&P -0.1%, NASDAQ +0.55%. AAPL, AMZN, BIDU fractionally up. AAPL was lingering at its LOD 338 when it began its rally — roughly 2 pm Eastern. So, as oil and metals went down, AAPL soared to 343 in almost a straight line. AAPL is at 342.98 in AH.

Turnaround Thursday

10:03 am (Hawaii). Got up an hour ago and the market has bounced back moderately. Manufacturing numbers out of Philadelphia, CNBC says, were the catalyst.

AAPL still hovering at 358, but metals continue to rock. SLV (+3.5%) and EXK (2.3%) are up big thanks to chaos in the Middle East (Day of Rage). SLV up almost in a straight line since January 26.

VXX (+1.4%) still up. Won't be touching that due to overnight contango effect.

LVS is up again (1.2%), now 48.82. I remember it trading to the low 46s after its earnings report two weeks ago. AMZN, VZ, CMG all up.

AAPL was actually at the bottom red end of my watch list early in the session, but has been replaced by RLOC and GMCR (-4.5%).

I've come to accept that the protests and rioting of the Middle East have become a combined catalyst that will not cease for weeks, if not months. That makes oil, gold and silver prominent, almost on par with a former "safe haven" like AAPL. Not interested in chasing SLV here, but I'll stay tuned for the next news event. Will there be another Day of Rage? Of course. People there are pissed.

EXK has traded in a range of roughly 5.50 to 7.50 for since November. At 7.20, it may be ready to break out. I wrote last year that speculators and traders had pointed out silver as an unappreciated vehicle, that there was massive hoarding going on. Whether that's true or ever was, the extremes of the past few months in the price are a great opportunity. EXK has a  float of 68.6 million shares and miniscule debt ($337K). The numbers are positive up and down, but this is a tiny company ($82.3 million revenue). At 5.50, a great buy in this environment. At 7 plus, watch out. Is it worth the risk? Will the rubber band yank it back when it touches 7.50?

SLV is also almost too hot to touch by most indicators. Traded between 26 and 30.50 since November and today is at a threshold (31) on increased volume. Tempting. I've always liked physical silver — looking at it more than owning it — so the appreciation of the metal is something to handle. As a piece of paper, it will always be a risk. Any government can seize paper assets of metals. It's happened before (long ago). But right now, SLV and EXK are alluring.

AAPL might be a great buy here at 357, but even without any Steve Jobs health issue, it always has pullbacks after earnings. I'm not willing to park into a position and wait for a catalyst. I'm willing to wait for a great price. But clearly, this is not just about Steve Jobs or app subscriptions. It's also about our personal issues with diseases like cancer. If we're comfortable enough with how the disease is treated, how it has affected our families and how we've dealt with it, the media circus around Mr. Jobs matters less. But there are still many traders and investors with panic buttons when it comes to anything negative or perceived as negative about the CEO. 

One nice healthy photo of Mr. Jobs and Mr. Obama tonight could set shares on fire again. 

NFLX, LULU and other momo movers are fun if you can take the heat. I prefer something cooler with a P/E I can trust. Doesn't mean I won't touch momos. But I know my preference and I'll work with it.

Sell Apples, Make Cash

8:16 am (Hawaii). Sold the AAPL position at 358.70 for a 2% (almost) gain over two days. No complaints other than I should've pulled that trigger sooner (yesterday and today). The intra-day lower highs and lower lows (the past couple of hours) convinced me to step out. I'm relieved.

I can breathe a little better rather than wait for the herd to stampede out, though some of them already did above 359. I reserve the right to re-enter later today, maybe around 355-356. Could happen after that mad dash from 356 to 359 (and later 360). Not really expecting a drop today, though. Just wanted to lock in a decent profit, especially since I might fall asleep. These all-nighters are only fun with a profit in the pocket.

Update, 8:58 am (Hawaii). Got out in the nick of time. A few minutes after my sell, AAPL began to cascade over a major cliff. Most AAPL fans knew it was due for a selloff, but it went from 358 to 348 in a span of 17 minutes or so. This is exactly why I insist on trading AAPL short-term only at this point. The long-timers who got their shares at 95 or 200 can rest easy; this is basically a blip. But for traders who entered at these levels (I entered on Tuesday just below 352), sitting through a 10-dollar plunge is useless. Not sure how or why volume was so freaking huge to the downside, but it bounced off 348, came back to 354+, and is now settling at 352+.

Cleared out all the stop loss orders along the way, one more reason why I prefer to have a mental stop instead of relying on anything else. Whoever picked up shares this week with plans to hold it to 500 or 1,000, this is a blip, as well. I'd rather get out and see if I can get a cheaper price.

Update, 9:19 am (Hawaii). Should add that if I seem a bit paranoid about stop-loss orders in a momo situation, it's because I've been burned royally in bear raids before (DNDN).

Update, 10:02 am (Hawaii). Still no clear indication of what caused the early afternoon crash of AAPL.

Philip Elmer-DeWitt: Snapshot of an Apple flash crash

Here, the mini-crash puts a dent right through what had been a robust gain (after shares opened to the downside along with the rest of the market). I lucked out and exited just before that at 358.70. 

The two-day chart shows exactly how oddly AAPL behaved while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ went about the afternoon as if nothing happened. 

AAPL still near its all-time high. Retouching 360 is going to be a challenge after a lengthy run. 

Update, 3:02 pm (Hawaii). Kept an eye on AAPL and the Egypt coverage on TV afterhours, but didn't trade a thing. VXX was somewhat interesting, rising about 30¢ to 28.79 AH after Mubarak told his nation that he ain't resigning yet. Just not worth the move with contango and the way it hits VXX each morning to the downside regardless of externals.

Market finished flat, basically. APPL finished AH at 354.10, down roughly a buck after a flash-crash-like free-fall (see above).

DIS was barely in the red (43.31 AH) after yesterday's huge jump on great earnings. OPEN, ECA, BIDU, TBT, LULU, HAIN, POT and MOS all 1.3% higher or more. NFLX, AMZN, GLD fractionally higher.

Here's an excellent summary of why hardly anyone showed up at the stores for the new Verizon iPhone 4.

Philip Elmer-DeWitt: Why are the Verizon lines so short? 

As I stalk my shares of AAPL ...

The rest of the market is soaring much higher. Not to be greedy, of course, with a $3+ move since yesterday AH. But I look at my growing watch list and DIS is at the top with a 4.2% gain. Mickey Mouse hasn't been atop a space mountain this high since May, 2000. That's some ride down and back up!

Imagine a Disney longtimer who saw his stock options sag monumentously TWICE in the past 11 years. Getting back to even never felt so good.

Other big gainers today: HAIN (Cramer with a big pump yesterday), AMZN +3.7%, SLV +3.1%, NGD +2.9%, EXK +2.7%, LULU +2.7%, RLOC +1.9%, VCLK +1.8%, TBT +1.8% (go figure), FAS +1.3%), OPEN +1.2%, IBM +1.1%, GLD +1.1%.

AAPL trading afterhours at 354.92 after brief spurt to 355.69. BIDU, F, VZ, GOOG, MOS fractionally higher.

In the red: NFLX -0.1%, POT -1.5%.

As for AAPL, I'm 30% tempted to sell for a nice little profit. I'm 20% cautious about another pre-catalyst bad-news lightning bolt (re: MLK Day/Steve Jobs health issue). If Apple has an overnight bad-news announcement, I won't be shocked. Fortunately, the 50% in me that says, "Let the winner run" is prevailing.

2-day

 2-month

10-year: extreme slope up tempts shorts, but 76% growth is monstrous

Amazon treading on Netflix's toes

Rick Munarritz: Will Amazon Be the Death of Netflix?
Shares of AMZN up 1.2% today (171). NFLX down 1% (212).

Mild Monday

So far, so mild. Good sleeping weather here, 65 degrees and blue skies. Even with an early (for me) bedtime, I missed the first three hours of the market. Egpyt? Bah. No biggie, says the market. Global selloff to start the week? The Dow, S&P and Nasdaq didn't blink. All three are fractionally up.

AAPL has made a run in the past hour or so from 334 to 339, a pleasant surprise. I got out last week, so I'm just waiting for a re-entry point. It appears 334-335 is new support.

As for VXX, I got out with a tiny loss in the mid-31 area. It's so typical of me to have such a modest position and yet all I could think of for most of the weekend was Egypt and VXX. The market often thinks one or two steps ahead. Unless that situation erupts into a shutdown of the Suez Canal, the street gatherings and protests are built into the US market already.

I was expecting a red day, but AAPL, BIDU, FAS, GLD, IBM, TBT are green. NFLX is finally selling off, down 1.8% (214). F is down 1.2% (16.06). GOOG and AMZN down slightly. LULU also. TVIX, which was up more than 20% on Friday, is down 2.4%, so net-net, it's still up big the past two days. I'm staying out of that, VXX and most everything else. The only issues I'll touch are AAPL and maybe GLD and VXX.

Alibaba is Brand #1?

Really? I don't believe it and you probably don't, either. Credit Suisse, however, has its own list of 27 global brand kings, and Alibaba is at the top of the list, followed by Amazon, Almarai, Apple and BIM.

Netflix: Tipping point in 2013

But really, it'll come quicker than that. If it isn't Netflix delivering streaming entertainment by '13, it'll be a behemoth like Apple or Amazon. Everything is evolving at warp speed, indeed.

For now, though, NFLX is king of delivering movies to your home.

Wish List

For core holdings:

AAPL (tech/retail/electronics)
AMZN (retail)
ATVI (gaming)
AXP (credit card)
BIDU (China/search/advertising)
F (possibly the lone US automaker by 2010)
FLS (infrastructure)
GOOG (search/advertising)
GS (financial)
LVS (casino)
MCD (dining/international)
NTES (China/gaming)

You like your Netflix?

DVDs delivered to your front door, practically, but downloads to your computer?

When the CEO of Netflix was on 60 Minutes a couple of years ago, I was impressed. NFLX seemed it would dominate its space for a long time, even with Blockbuster and every other movie and game rental company.

There's been so much about NFLX in the news lately. News, hype, drivel, froth. Whipped cream in the world of media downloads/streaming channels, and what a hugely insane world that is. Think Napster. Making real money. So how can NFLX not been a buy? Could it still be a buy?

Frankly, as I dig a little, I will not expect to buy any NFLX. The two or three weeks after earnings aren't always the best time to chisel into a stock as swing traders cash in and look for the next hot one. Then again, if mutual funds start pouring back into the market, they could take a lot of stocks skyward just on sheer volume.

Here's a starting point, perhaps. Should Netflix worry about Comcast? I dunno. Read the link.

Le Beanieville Index*

Last week, one of my favorite bloggers, Beanieville, went bullish with his favorite stocks for the next run up. Here's a look at those stocks, their closing price that day, Friday's price and the percentage move since.

Beanieville's Bulls
AAPL 115, 119.57 +4%
GOOG 369, 372.50 +1%
VMW 28, 30.01 +7.2%
AMZN 78, 79.77 +2.3%
CRM 37, 37.40 +1.1%
AKAM 20, 20.20 +1%
BIDU 187, 190.32 +1.8%
SNDA 42, 46.41 +10.5%
NTES 27, 28.45 +5.4%
AZO 159, 161.72 +1.7%
V 60, 58.79 -2%
MA 173, 172.46 -0.3%
FSLR 134, 142.05 +6%
SPWRA 24, 26.04 +8.5%
STP 14, 14.40 +2.9%

Average: +3.4%

Why do I keep track? I like Beanieville's picks, for the most part. I've traded in and out of STP and will probably continue to do so later. I like just about all the stocks on his bull list, particularly AAPL, GOOG, VMW, BIDU, AMZN and FSLR (along with STP). This is one of the gauges I can use to see where the better entry points were, or have yet to come.