McDonald's Shrek glass recall

A recall of 12 million cups. What the fuck?! There's cadmium in them there Shrek glasses. Don't let the kids touch that shit. DO NOT LET YOUR KIDS HAVE ANY SHREK CRAP FROM MICKEY D'S. 


From Lehigh Valley Live: 

Long term exposure to cadmium can cause kidney problems, according to the Occupational Safety and Health Administration. 

What else contains lethal shit? Probably almost everything in our cupboards that came from a fast-food promotion. But I am not tossing out my vintage 1970s-era NFL glass cups. 

Wish List

For core holdings:

AAPL (tech/retail/electronics)
AMZN (retail)
ATVI (gaming)
AXP (credit card)
BIDU (China/search/advertising)
F (possibly the lone US automaker by 2010)
FLS (infrastructure)
GOOG (search/advertising)
GS (financial)
LVS (casino)
MCD (dining/international)
NTES (China/gaming)

#5 McDonald's

MCD is on a roll. Menu improvements. Renewed vigor. Global expansion. Inroads in China.


I don't see anyone really stopping or slowing Mickey D.

Nauseous? Watch the road

The nausea caused by the market tide doesn't mean there aren't some prices worth eyeing. Twenty of the 25 stocks I like are worth a look on the recent downturn.


ISRG starting to look attractive. Just a bit.


MasterCard is falling, too, even though the company is making major profits. I like it here below the 100-day SMA.


First Solar isn't cheap, but it's pretty good here. At worst, it's the leader in solar.


Really, McDonald's shouldn't be this cheap, not with its overseas exposure and growth. The honey mustard snack wrap is my fave. Still addicted to their fries.


Crude oil hit $104 a barrel today, but PetroChina shares are still sluggish.


Disney is a stock worth holding for a long time.


Up and down, down and up. Is Steve Jobs and his creative crew out of fresh ideas? I tend to think not. That's more of a key than whether they sell 10 million iPhones or not.


Really, is Google this bad?


RIMM's a bit pricey here.


I'd buy on these crazy dips if I could. Goldman Sachs at 165, didn't expect it, but it was always a possibility.


Focus Media hasn't proven its potential just yet and it's a bit expensive here.


CNOOC Ltd. is doing fairly well, while its cousin PetroChina is a slug. Go figure. Could be CNOOC's natural gas segment is getting a boost from rising demand.


Crashing hard. Where it bottoms out, who knows?


On discount lately. The CEO says they'll bounce back, just like last year.


Baidu and other China leaders can't get any traction here. Just a matter of time, perhaps, until the Beijing Olympics has an effect.


Nike trading in a range. Spooky here.


Just watching Mr. Softee for now.


China Life Insurance finally leveling out. What do the technical junkies call it? An ascending triangle ... which means it may break out. Or not.


Suntech Power is appealing right here.


There are probably dozens of better stocks than Chipotle right now. But I'm still watching.

Top 25: #5 McDonald's

Mickey D was cheap for a time, but that passed quickly enough. Now MCD is nearing its 50- and 100-day SMAs. Time to step back and wait for a much better price.

Top 25: #5 McDonald's

You could look at it at least two ways when it comes to the Golden Arches. One, getting in at 63 in mid-December makes any visit to your local Mickey D's a rather painful reminder of poor timing. Two, had you scooped up shares below 50 in mid-January, you did good. For now. At 53, MCD isn't super cheap, but there's too much going for the company's growth overseas — plus McCafe — to panic.

Top 25: #3 McDonald's

MCD 53.58 +2.57 (+5.0%)
50-day SMA: 57.38 | 100-day SMA: 56.27 | 200-day SMA: 52.63
The stock was punished because of domestic numbers, but that's absurd because McDonald's is a global entity without challenge. MCD at 50 in the past week was a total steal. Now, at 53, it is still cheap, trading below its 50- and 100-day SMAs.

Mickey D tumbles

Now McDonald's is being shot down in a blitzkrieg. Why? Pete Najarian says it's about a flat December, but all other numbers are robust. MCD is tried, true and expanding successfully. Worth a real close watch this week once the selling dries up.

The Starbucks Response

This guy offers 10 potential responses that Starbucks can give to McDonald's in wake of this all-out war (from Mickey D).

Here's my suggestion to Starbucks: merge with Chipotle Mexican Grill. Ha!

Pupule portfolio

The market is beyond ridiculous now. Bear market? Or just a sharp correction? Whatever the case, here are more additions to the faux portfolio.

AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

AAPL | in at 177.64 (11 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

AAPL | in at 171.25 (18 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
BIDU | in at 344.31 (6 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

BIDU | in at 345.21 (9 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

CEO | in 167.22 (60 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07



CHL | in at 84.65 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
CHL | in at 85.44 (23 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08

CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
CHL | in at 85.22 (47 shares) | 40% of position | 1/7/08



CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
CMG | in at 123.98 (16 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

CMG | in at 117.87 (25 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

EBAY | in at 32.49 (30 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08

EBAY | in at 32.84 (61 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08

EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
EBAY | in at 30.44 (131 shares) 40% of position | 1/7/08

FLS | in at 90.50 (11 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08

FLS | in at 90.45 (22 shares) | 20% of position | 1/8/08

FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
FMCN | in at 56.14 (36 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

FMCN | in at 56.20 (54 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

FWLT | in at 149.94 (7 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08

FWLT | in at 143.49 (14 shares) | 20% of position | 1/8/08





GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
GOOG | in at 649.25 (3 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

GOOG | in at 631.68 (5 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

GS | in 214.32 (47 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07

ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
ISRG | in at 299.98 (7 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

ISRG | in at 271.73 (11 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

LFC | in 80.70 (124 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07



LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
LULU | in at 38.45 (52 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

LULU | in at 36.93 (81 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08



MCD | in at 57.93 (17 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08

MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
MCD | in at 58.03 (52 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08

MCD | in at 57.08 (70 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08



MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
MSFT | in at 34.61 (58 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

MSFT | in at 33.45 (90 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08



NKE | in at 62.71 (16 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08

NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
NKE | in at 62.11 (48 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08

NKE | in at 61.83 (65 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08

NTDOY.PK | in at 67.00 (15 shares) | 10% of position | 1/8/08

PTR | in 181.72 (55 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07



RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
RIMM | in at 99.83 (20 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

RIMM | in at 96.44 (31 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

VMW | in at 83.95 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
VMW | in at 72.99 (41 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08

VMW | in at 74.50 (53 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08

Pupule portfolio

Includes new additions to the faux portfolio

AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

CEO | in $167.22 (60 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07

CHL | in at $84.65 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
CHL | in at 85.44 (23 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08

CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

EBAY | in at $32.49 (30 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
EBAY | in at 32.84 (61 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08

FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

GS | in $214.32 (47 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07

ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

LFC | in $80.70 (124 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07

LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

MCD | in at 57.93 (17 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08

MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

NKE | in at 62.71 (16 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08

PTR | in $181.72 (55 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07

RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

VMW | in at 83.95 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08

Pupule portfolio

Friday, Jan. 4 additions to the faux portfolio
AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08

Ins and Outs

Jon Najarian says the Fed must act, but even if the Fed were to slash rates, wouldn't they take their sweet ol' time as usual? That's why papertrading is no substitute for the real deal. With my Ins and Outs of the Top 25, it's easy to say, 'Yup, dive in on the cheap stocks today.' It's tempting only in real life. On paper, easily done. AAPL at 180? Deal. RIMM at 103? In.

Worst-case scenario: Fed refuses to act until its end-of-January meeting (if it acts) and the market crashes. Best-case scenario: Fed makes a bold move, earnings reports (which begin on Monday) are more bullish than expected. Market rises.

How bearish has the market become? Last week, only eight of my Top 25 were below their 50-day simple moving averages. yesterday, the number increased to 12. Today? Eighteen. Those of us in cash will reign.

1. AAPL 180.05 -14.88 (-7.6%) | 50-day SMA: 183.26 | 100-day SMA: 164.98
Big money got out of the big growth stocks today. AAPL is below its 50-day SMA for the first time since mid-November. Volume was the biggest since that period, too. MacWorld is around the corner. Inch in.
2. GOOG 657.00 -28.33 (-4.1%) | 50-day SMA: 684.78 | 100-day SMA: 621.23
Interesting price point here. Inch in is fine with an eye on a dip to the 100-day SMA (621). If GOOG falls through 621, it's a horror film in real life.
3. RIMM 103.35 -9.47 (-8.4%) | 50-day SMA: 112.82 | 100-day SMA: 103.10
Unlike AAPL and GOOG, volume in RIMM today wasn't as extreme. That doesn't give RIMM long any semblance of comfort. How can RIMM fall below its pre-earnings price? RIMM blitzed estimate and raised guidance. The patient will be rewarded. When the market recovers, RIMM will be among the rally leaders. Price is nice here to start inching in.
4. ISRG 305.00 -16.75 (-5.2%) | 50-day SMA: 313.95 | 100-day SMA: 271.47
Amazing. ISRG was so far above its moving averages just days ago, and now it's below its 50-day SMA. Inch in, though I think it may pull back to 275 if the Fed does nothing.
5. NTDOY.PK n/a

6. POT 142.65 -4.23 (-2.9%) | 50-day SMA: 123.57
Potash is almost immune to market turbulence and it's not the only fertilizer stock rocking the free world. Too pricey still.
7. CHL 83.88 -1.56 (-1.8%) | 50-day SMA: 89.83 | 100-day SMA: 81.82
Bears are in charge of this great stock. Four of the last six sessions have been down for China Mobile, and those four trading days had big volume compared to the up sessions. I'd continue to inch in here with an eye on 80 as a key support level.
8. PTR 176.00 +5.36 (+3.1%) | 50-day SMA: 199.40 | 100-day SMA: 184.71 | 200-day SMA: 157.72
PetroChina was due for a rally, and with crude oil hovering near $100/barrel, why not now? I started inching into PTR in the Pupule portfolio recently and will continue to do so at these levels. The world will always need oil. China needs oil. OK, maybe alternative energy becomes substantial within five years. That's plenty of time for PTR to run.
9. FSLR 245.58 -20.29 (-7.6%) | 50-day SMA: 215.47 | 100-day SMA: 163.93
Finally, a gap down, and yet, First Solar is miles from any kind of a fair price. Wait.
10. MCD 57.05 -0.88 (-1.5%) | 50-day SMA: 58.61 | 100-day SMA: 55.15
A pullback like this in McDonald's is absolutely stupid. Now 11% down from its recent high, MCD is still selling a ton of latte, a ton of snack wraps (kids love 'em) and basically stealing customers from Starbucks. (A Mickey D and Starbucks were built next to each other recently in Honolulu. Guess which one is always packed and which one is half-empty?) The "Dollar Menu" at McDonald's is BUILT for recessions. Certainly worth inching in here.

11. STP 81.84 -6.38 (-7.2%) | 50-day SMA: 71.64
Buy here? Fuggedaboudit. Today's pullback is a speck of dust compared to this insane run from 45. Wait.
12. CMG 127.01 -14.69 (-10.4%) | 50-day SMA: 135.77 | 100-day SMA: 124.02
Chipotle Mexican Grill is getting cheaper and cheaper. This is a nice price to inch in, but will consumers opt to buy fast, healthy Mexican food rather than the dollar menu at Mickey D's?
13. BIDU 361.00 -14.09 (-3.7%) | 50-day SMA: 367.50 | 100-day SMA: 313.93
After five down days in a row, Baidu is worth inching in here. Still easily capable of falling to support level at 300.
14. FWLT 159.69 -9.48 (-5.6%) | 50-day SMA: 150.46
Recession proof? Possibly. But this price is still too high.
15. FLS 93.20 -2.95 (-3.1%) | 50-day SMA: 91.71
Another stock that thrives in global growth, but pricey here. Wait.

16. FMCN 55.71 -3.27 (-5.5%) | 50-day SMA: 57.00 | 100-day SMA: 52.83
Down big on moderate volume, worth inching in here.
17. GS 199.93 -4.91 (-2.4%) | 50-day SMA: 218.79 | 100-day SMA: 209.50 | 200-day SMA: 212.21
Goldman Sachs is king and emperor of the financials, the Godfather of Greenbacks. And yet, the stock is on thin ice right here; 200 is a key support level. If GS falls through, next stop is 180, and then 160. Inching in is a good idea, but don't dive head first.
18. NKE 61.74 -0.97 (-1.5%) | 50-day SMA: 64.06 | 100-day SMA: 60.86
Fair price, almost good. Six down days in a row, but I like the growing international exposure (China) and commitment.
19. CEO 170.50 +0.66 (+0.4%) | 50-day SMA: 176.57 | 100-day SMA: 159.95
Like PetroChina, CNOOC Ltd. is a state-owned entity in the Middle Kingdom. I missed the boat on CEO twice: once at 91, later at 111. With the latter, the P/E was only 12. Then it ran to 215. Here, CEO is still a fair price, but I'd inch in only. The stock has run up with increasing volume for two days and could be due for a pullback.
20. VMW 80.49 -3.46 (-4.1%) | 50-day SMA: 94.54 | 100-day SMA: 87.04
Dead money for a few weeks now unless you're a short. Nice price for a near-term trade, though. Inching in for the Pupule portfolio with an eye on support at 71.

21. LULU 40.54 -4.22 (-9.4%) | 50-day SMA: 43.95 | 100-day SMA: 42.03
Today's hellacious jobs report casts a bad omen for retailers. Pricey yoga pants ($100/pair) aren't a big priority if and when we head into a recession. But I do think that lululemon athletica's core customers are not affected by layoffs in the financial and homebuilding sectors. LULU's customers will continue to work out, and they will show off the results by purchasing lululemon pants. Women 18-35 will keep on keepin' on. They will keep spending. It's the vanity factor. It works well.
22. MSFT 34.38 -0.99 (-2.8%) | 50-day SMA: 34.65 | 100-day SMA: 31.86
The Halo effect is done. What drives Mister Softee from here? As Sgt. Schultz often said, "I see nothing!" Scaling in here for a near-term trade on the Pupule portfolio.
23. AMZN 88.79 -6.42 (-6.7%) | 50-day SMA: 87.82 | 100-day SMA: 87.19
Another stock, like RIMM, that will lead a market rally if the Fed cuts. Amazon bluntly told the world that unlike other struggling online retailers, its sales were quite fine, thank you. Price is better, but not quite good yet. Wait.
24. EBAY 31.30 -1.54 (-4.7%) | 50-day SMA: 33.51 | 100-day SMA: 35.19 | 200-day SMA: 34.20
If the country is heading for a recession, it will be the eBays of the world that will benefit. Still, the stock took a hit today. Inching in on the Pupule portfolio.
25. LFC 73.00 -1.64 (-2.2%) | 50-day SMA: 83.99 | 100-day SMA: 81.68 | 200-day SMA: 66.44
Does anyone really think life insurance won't work in China? This is a land, as I've mentioned before, where ancestor worship was once the rule. As the middle-agers accumulate wealth, they will put their hard-earned money into life insurance while the younger generation plays the stock market.

On the cusp: Taking a close look this weekend at Costco and Altria as additions to the Top 25.

Pupule portfolio

The faux portfolio moves on. Began inching into MCD, VMW, NKE today. Each with a 10% position (pyramiding). Added more CHL and EBAY (each 20% of position).

Weighted scale of $10,000 per stock
PTR • in $181.72 (55 shares) • 100% of position • 12/24/07
GS • in $214.32 (47 shares) • 100% of position • 12/24/07
CEO • in $167.22 (60 shares) • 100% of position • 12/24/07
LFC • in $80.70 (124 shares) • 100% of position • 12/24/07

CHL • in at $84.65 (12 shares) • 10% of position • 1/2/08
CHL • in at 85.44 (23 shares) • 20% of position • 1/3/08

EBAY • in at $32.49 (30 shares) • 10% of position • 1/2/08
EBAY • in at 32.84 (61 shares) • 20% of position • 1/3/08

MCD • in at 57.93 (17 shares) • 10% of position • 1/3/08
NKE • in at 62.71 (16 shares) • 10% of position • 1/3/08
VMW • in at 83.95 (12 shares) • 10% of position • 1/3/08

I should have remembered to pyramid into PTR, GS, CEO and LFC as they've all declined since Dec. 24. Great stocks cheap. Three important words.

Ins and Outs

Well, well. There are now 12 stocks among my Top 25 that are trading below their simple moving averages. (One is very, very close.) Yesterday, only nine were on the radar.

Buys? Not necessarily. But worth exploring. 

1. AAPL 194.93 • 50-day SMA: 183.39 • Wait
2. GOOG 685.53 • 50-day SMA: 685.16 • Up just 14¢ on lower volume. Wait
3. RIMM 112.82 • 50-day SMA: 113.25 • Fair price, but mediocre volume says this is dead money near term
4. ISRG 321.75 • 50-day SMA: 313.94 • Wait
5. NTDOY.PK 74.55 • 50-day SMA: n/a • Recent 50-day was 73.13. Wait
6. POT 146.88 • 50-day SMA: 122.90 • Wait. It may take almost forever, but wait
7. CHL 85.44 • 50-day SMA: 90.13 • 100-day SMA: 81.52 • Up 79¢ on lower volume. Good price. Inch in and expect a better price
8. PTR 170.64 • 50-day SMA: 201.02 • 100-day SMA: 184.28 • 200-day SMA: 157.38 • Plunging on low volume. Great price. Inch in
9. FSLR 265.87 • 50-day SMA: 213.56 • Wait
10. MCD 57.93 • 50-day SMA: 58.58 • 100-day SMA: 55.05 • Fair price, great earnings, inch in 

11. STP 88.22 • 50-day SMA: 70.94 • 24% over its 50-day SMA. Ridiculous. Wait
12. CMG 141.70 • 50-day SMA: 135.77 • Wait
13. BIDU 375.09 • 50-day SMA: 367.28 • Sideways action since October. CFO's mysterious death doesn't help
14. FWLT 169.17 • 50-day SMA: 150.15 • Big gap up today (4.7%). Wait
15. FLS 96.15 • 50-day SMA: 91.43 • Traded seemingly forever in the 60s and 70s. Pricey now. Wait
16. FMCN 58.98 • 50-day SMA: 57.04 • Wait
17. GS 204.84 • 50-day SMA: 219.26 • 100-day SMA: 209.27 • 200-day SMA: 212.26 • Down 1.3% today. Great price, inch in
18. NKE 62.71 • 50-day SMA: 64.10 • 100-day SMA: 60.80 • Six down days in a row. Fair price, inch in
19. CEO 169.84 • 50-day SMA: 176.96 • 100-day SMA: 159.33 • Fair price, up 1.4% on increased volume
20. VMW 83.95 • 50-day SMA: 94.05 • Fair price, facing stiff competition long term. Inch in for near-term trade only

21. LULU 44.76 • 50-day SMA: 44.29 • Fair price, low volume. Long way from earnings, likely to fall more
22. MSFT 35.37 • 50-day SMA: 34.58 • Wait
23. AMZN 95.21 • 50-day SMA: 88.06 • Wait
24. EBAY 32.85 • 50-day SMA: 33.60 • 100-day SMA: 35.23 • 200-day SMA: 34.21 • Dysfunctional stock, crummy policing of ripoff sellers. PayPal is undeniably strong, though. Great price, horrible volume. Inch in for near-term trade
25. LFC 74.64 • 50-day SMA: 84.57 • 100-day SMA: 81.53 • 200-day SMA: 66.29 • Good price, down five sessions in a row. Inch in

Ins and Outs

Two sessions ago, eight of my favorite 25 stocks showed up on the radar. They had interesting prices. Not all necessarily had entry points to buy. After today's session, there are nine stocks on the radar.

based on closing prices, Jan. 2, 2007
1. AAPL 194 • 50-day SMA: 182 • Wait
2. GOOG 685 • 50-day SMA: 684 • 100-day SMA: 618 • Wait
3. RIMM 113.71 • 50-day SMA: 113.26 • 100-day SMA: 102 • Wait
4. ISRG 323 • 50-day SMA: 313 • Wait
5. NTDOY.PK 73.95 • 50-day SMA: 73.13 • 100-day SMA: 67 • Wait
6. POT 146 • 50-day SMA: 122 • Wait
7. CHL 84 • 50-day SMA: 90 • 100-day SMA: 81 • Good price, could get better • chart
8. PTR 173 • 50-day SMA: 202 • 100-day SMA: 183 • 200-day SMA: 157 • Very good price • chart
9. FSLR 267 • 50-day SMA: 210 • Wait
10. MCD 58.10 • 50-day SMA: 58.51 • 100-day SMA: 54.95 • Fair price, could be cheaper • chart
11. STP 85 • 50-day SMA: 70 • Wait
12. CMG 146 • 50-day SMA: 135 • Wait
13. BIDU 381 • 50-day SMA: 366 • Wait
14. FWLT 161 • 50-day SMA: 149 • Wait
15. FLS 94 • 50-day SMA: 91 • Wait
16. FMCN 57.13 • 50-day SMA: 56.96 • 100-day SMA: 52.50 • Wait
17. GS 207 • 50-day SMA: 219 • 100-day SMA: 209 • 200-day SMA: 212 • Great price, could get better • chart
18. NKE 63.28 • 50-day SMA: 64.11 • 100-day SMA: 60 • Fair price, could be cheaper • chart
19. CEO 167 • 50-day SMA: 177 • 100-day SMA: 158 • Good price, could get better • chart
20. VMW 84 • 50-day SMA: 94 • Good price, could get better • chart
21. LULU 44.82 • 50-day SMA: 44.55 • Wait
22. MSFT 35.22 • 50-day SMA: 34.48 • Wait
23. AMZN 96 • 50-day SMA: 87 • Wait
24. EBAY 32.49 • 50-day SMA: 33.67 • 100-day SMA: 35.26 • 200-day SMA: 34.20 • Great price for a short-term trade • chart
25. LFC 74 • 50-day SMA: 85 • 100-day SMA: 81 • 200-day SMA: 66 • Good price, could get better • chart

As always, the best approach when a good stock dips is to wade in rather than dive headfirst.

> > > Pyramiding into a stock

No. 10 McDonald's: Arches aren't the only gold

Quite amazing, what Mickey D's has done in the past year with its coffee/latte campaign. I don't drink coffee, but their lattes smell and look ono (delicious). The stock has not touched its 50-day SMA since mid-September. I thought 55 was the doldrums a couple of months ago, but MCD is off its recent high of 62-plus.


















At 60, MCD is not a buy in my book, but growth in China is compelling. Rare is the opportunity for an old food company to shoot for the moon. As Starbucks sinks, McDonald's grows.

Pupule's Top 25 (Dec. 25)

Swoons and a margin call

Today, finally, is a good day in the green, up 10% or so. In the meantime, I sold my itty-bitty positions in McDonald's and Under Armor today. I bought these stocks a few months back for my 11-year-old nephew as a way to show him how buying what you know is a good thing, and he's bullish on both, especially Under Armor. Well, UA was obviously horrible, sinking from the 61-65 levels I bought it at. The bloated P/E was a real indicator of where the Co was as a retail stock, plus the huge insider selling was blatantly arrogant. McDonald's on the other hand is a fine Co and I'll be buying that back for my nephew in the near future, long before UA. I'm not anti-UA. I just see major bloating, and the market crushed the stock.

The sales were key for me because of (I saw today) a small margin call. I could have avoided this problem if I had

a. Sold my CROX, LULU and STV (and other stocks) at or near the top
b. Avoided buying speculative stocks like LFT (an IPO)
c. Avoided buying more BIDU and AAPL on the way down

I could've waited and bought BIDU and AAPL earlier today when the market rebounded from the horrendous 5-day slide. I will stay on top of this margin call, of course. Took 20 minutes to get through to someone on the phone at E*Trade, but he said that it's possible that if my account continues to rise before Thursday's margin call deadline, they may not require me to sell any shares. "It's a mystery," Jeff said.

Hmm. Well, I sold the MCD and UA shares today, which could help if the funds settle quickly. You know, if I were a genius and sold near the top before the recent crash, I'd have an account worth about twice what it is today ... and today's session would've been a buying spree to da max. Instead, my account is just getting back to 60% of what it was at its top. Moral of the story: It's a trader's market. I am fully aware of this now. No longer in denial.

When the next dip begins, I'll sell 50 to 75% of my stuff, even AAPL. Then I won't dread looking at my account or at the market action next time. Yesterday (Monday) I didn't even look at my account. First time in a long, long time. Even today, I haven't activated my MarketTrader tool to watch trading in real time. It was good. I had no buying power anyway. But what I must always remember, however, is that I always have selling power.

I have always been faithful to the point of blind faith. Back in the day, when we were 13-year-old comic book collectors, it was me and Peter who loved to read the comics and learned to appreciate great stories. It was Jae who paid superficial attention to the content and really, really knew how to hustle other kids — especially the younger ones enamored with flashy cover art and infamous superhero names like X-Men and Frank Miller's Daredevil — to buy his comics. He was a GREAT salesman who knew what appealed to the masses. He'd have the same comics on the same table as Peter. Jae would have a higher price, but his loud, busy mouth and great salesmanship got him the big profits. He would sell sell sell and make money.

I hold and lose huge profits. The concept of selling, somewhere in my subconscious, is probably that it's a form of "giving up," which is absolutely preposterous. I'm learning to sell to avoid losses, which I did with many stocks in the past month. But the concept of selling to LOCK IN profits is still novel, and I must embrace it.

I realize that my honesty here can and probably will open me up to criticism, but I'm the first to admit that knowledge is key, and I intend to learn from my mistakes, to learn how to sell. It's psychology, not so much the mechanics — a 7% stop-loss is sensible to me. What's crucial now is to overcome the losing mindset, the denial that any stock is going lower ... and lower ... and lower. Hitting that sell button is equally as important as investing long term, if not more. I plan to do both.

Pruning the barren pupule tree

Sold CHL (loss of $7/share), LULU (gain of $2/share) and YGE (even). Just too much unpredictability and negativity to hold these babies, even with small positions. I'm not going to wait for these stocks to bleed to death. YGE is actually hanging tough, and had been early in the day. But I will stay out of these. I'm still holding BIDU, MCD, NTDOY, UA, RIMM, AAPL and VMW. MCD and UA are for my nephew.

There's no doubt in my mind. With the Fed out of rate cuts and the US economy slowing, our market is bearish and getting more so by the day. Companies like Crocs and Under Armor are raising guidance and getting pummeled. The only stocks seemingly resistant to all of the financials (Citigroup) and housing subprime crap and economic slowdown today are Google and Baidu. Blue Nile, which reports tomorrow, is up 3.1%. McDonald's is up fractionally.

Other than that, I'm just relieved to prune those stocks out of my folio. When the market turns, I'll be back in.

Arches are very golden overseas

Mickey D's not only has mad expansion in China and mega-success in Russia, it is the kind of monster Co that inspires confidence. The dividend is just a bonus.

The Co's ability to adjust its menu and cater to local tastes is key. Here in Hawaii, McDonald's sells saimin and fruit punch. The adaptability will serve all well overseas, too.

Pupule says: Buy small. At 56.19, MCD is below its 10-day SMA, still consolidating since making a nice run after the increased dividend announcment.