#16 Focus Media

Someone has to become the advertising king in China. Right?


Or maybe it just isn't going to happen. After all. FMCN is about small-scale advertising. Where's the growth? Where are the profits in a quickly rising economy?

Nauseous? Watch the road

The nausea caused by the market tide doesn't mean there aren't some prices worth eyeing. Twenty of the 25 stocks I like are worth a look on the recent downturn.


ISRG starting to look attractive. Just a bit.


MasterCard is falling, too, even though the company is making major profits. I like it here below the 100-day SMA.


First Solar isn't cheap, but it's pretty good here. At worst, it's the leader in solar.


Really, McDonald's shouldn't be this cheap, not with its overseas exposure and growth. The honey mustard snack wrap is my fave. Still addicted to their fries.


Crude oil hit $104 a barrel today, but PetroChina shares are still sluggish.


Disney is a stock worth holding for a long time.


Up and down, down and up. Is Steve Jobs and his creative crew out of fresh ideas? I tend to think not. That's more of a key than whether they sell 10 million iPhones or not.


Really, is Google this bad?


RIMM's a bit pricey here.


I'd buy on these crazy dips if I could. Goldman Sachs at 165, didn't expect it, but it was always a possibility.


Focus Media hasn't proven its potential just yet and it's a bit expensive here.


CNOOC Ltd. is doing fairly well, while its cousin PetroChina is a slug. Go figure. Could be CNOOC's natural gas segment is getting a boost from rising demand.


Crashing hard. Where it bottoms out, who knows?


On discount lately. The CEO says they'll bounce back, just like last year.


Baidu and other China leaders can't get any traction here. Just a matter of time, perhaps, until the Beijing Olympics has an effect.


Nike trading in a range. Spooky here.


Just watching Mr. Softee for now.


China Life Insurance finally leveling out. What do the technical junkies call it? An ascending triangle ... which means it may break out. Or not.


Suntech Power is appealing right here.


There are probably dozens of better stocks than Chipotle right now. But I'm still watching.

Top 25: #17 Focus Media

I got over my infatuation, then worry, and then anger about FMCN months ago. I still think the company will lead the advertising sector in China, or at least display ads for now. Bargain price here, if you can stand the turbulence of Chinese stocks.

Top 25: #17 Focus Media

Oh man, they're destroying FMCN. Wild swings from day to day. All because of ... because of what? Has China decided that all this capitalist stuff is evil? Of course not. The swings are nonsensical and I am staying out of their madhouse.

Top 25: #15 Focus Media

FMCN 48.05 +2.53 (+5.6%)
50-day SMA: 53.68 | 100-day SMA: 54.77 | 200-day SMA: 48.45
Bargain price, increased volume today.

Pupule portfolio

The market is beyond ridiculous now. Bear market? Or just a sharp correction? Whatever the case, here are more additions to the faux portfolio.

AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

AAPL | in at 177.64 (11 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

AAPL | in at 171.25 (18 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
BIDU | in at 344.31 (6 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

BIDU | in at 345.21 (9 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

CEO | in 167.22 (60 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07



CHL | in at 84.65 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
CHL | in at 85.44 (23 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08

CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
CHL | in at 85.22 (47 shares) | 40% of position | 1/7/08



CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
CMG | in at 123.98 (16 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

CMG | in at 117.87 (25 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

EBAY | in at 32.49 (30 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08

EBAY | in at 32.84 (61 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08

EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
EBAY | in at 30.44 (131 shares) 40% of position | 1/7/08

FLS | in at 90.50 (11 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08

FLS | in at 90.45 (22 shares) | 20% of position | 1/8/08

FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
FMCN | in at 56.14 (36 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

FMCN | in at 56.20 (54 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

FWLT | in at 149.94 (7 shares) | 10% of position | 1/7/08

FWLT | in at 143.49 (14 shares) | 20% of position | 1/8/08





GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
GOOG | in at 649.25 (3 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

GOOG | in at 631.68 (5 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

GS | in 214.32 (47 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07

ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
ISRG | in at 299.98 (7 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

ISRG | in at 271.73 (11 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

LFC | in 80.70 (124 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07



LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
LULU | in at 38.45 (52 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

LULU | in at 36.93 (81 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08



MCD | in at 57.93 (17 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08

MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
MCD | in at 58.03 (52 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08

MCD | in at 57.08 (70 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08



MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
MSFT | in at 34.61 (58 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

MSFT | in at 33.45 (90 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08



NKE | in at 62.71 (16 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08

NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
NKE | in at 62.11 (48 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08

NKE | in at 61.83 (65 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08

NTDOY.PK | in at 67.00 (15 shares) | 10% of position | 1/8/08

PTR | in 181.72 (55 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07



RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
RIMM | in at 99.83 (20 shares) | 20% of position | 1/7/08

RIMM | in at 96.44 (31 shares) | 30% of position | 1/8/08

VMW | in at 83.95 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
VMW | in at 72.99 (41 shares) | 30% of position | 1/7/08

VMW | in at 74.50 (53 shares) | 40% of position | 1/8/08

Pupule portfolio

Includes new additions to the faux portfolio

AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

CEO | in $167.22 (60 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07

CHL | in at $84.65 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
CHL | in at 85.44 (23 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08

CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

EBAY | in at $32.49 (30 shares) | 10% of position | 1/2/08
EBAY | in at 32.84 (61 shares) | 20% of position | 1/3/08
EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08

FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

GS | in $214.32 (47 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07

ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

LFC | in $80.70 (124 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07

LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

MCD | in at 57.93 (17 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08

MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

NKE | in at 62.71 (16 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08

PTR | in $181.72 (55 shares) | 100% of position | 12/24/07

RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08

VMW | in at 83.95 (12 shares) | 10% of position | 1/3/08
VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08

Pupule portfolio

Friday, Jan. 4 additions to the faux portfolio
AAPL | in at 180.05 (6 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
GOOG | in at 657.00 (2 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
RIMM | in at 103.35 (10 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
ISRG | in at 305.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
CHL | in at 83.88 (36 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08
MCD | in at 57.05 (35 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
CMG | in at 127.01 (8 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
BIDU | in at 361.00 (3 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
FMCN | in at 55.71 (18 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
NKE | in at 61.74 (32 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
VMW | in at 80.49 (25 shares) | 20% of position | 1/4/08
LULU | in at 40.54 (25 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
MSFT | in at 34.38 (29 shares) | 10% of position | 1/4/08
EBAY | in at 31.30 (96 shares) | 30% of position | 1/4/08

Ins and Outs

Jon Najarian says the Fed must act, but even if the Fed were to slash rates, wouldn't they take their sweet ol' time as usual? That's why papertrading is no substitute for the real deal. With my Ins and Outs of the Top 25, it's easy to say, 'Yup, dive in on the cheap stocks today.' It's tempting only in real life. On paper, easily done. AAPL at 180? Deal. RIMM at 103? In.

Worst-case scenario: Fed refuses to act until its end-of-January meeting (if it acts) and the market crashes. Best-case scenario: Fed makes a bold move, earnings reports (which begin on Monday) are more bullish than expected. Market rises.

How bearish has the market become? Last week, only eight of my Top 25 were below their 50-day simple moving averages. yesterday, the number increased to 12. Today? Eighteen. Those of us in cash will reign.

1. AAPL 180.05 -14.88 (-7.6%) | 50-day SMA: 183.26 | 100-day SMA: 164.98
Big money got out of the big growth stocks today. AAPL is below its 50-day SMA for the first time since mid-November. Volume was the biggest since that period, too. MacWorld is around the corner. Inch in.
2. GOOG 657.00 -28.33 (-4.1%) | 50-day SMA: 684.78 | 100-day SMA: 621.23
Interesting price point here. Inch in is fine with an eye on a dip to the 100-day SMA (621). If GOOG falls through 621, it's a horror film in real life.
3. RIMM 103.35 -9.47 (-8.4%) | 50-day SMA: 112.82 | 100-day SMA: 103.10
Unlike AAPL and GOOG, volume in RIMM today wasn't as extreme. That doesn't give RIMM long any semblance of comfort. How can RIMM fall below its pre-earnings price? RIMM blitzed estimate and raised guidance. The patient will be rewarded. When the market recovers, RIMM will be among the rally leaders. Price is nice here to start inching in.
4. ISRG 305.00 -16.75 (-5.2%) | 50-day SMA: 313.95 | 100-day SMA: 271.47
Amazing. ISRG was so far above its moving averages just days ago, and now it's below its 50-day SMA. Inch in, though I think it may pull back to 275 if the Fed does nothing.
5. NTDOY.PK n/a

6. POT 142.65 -4.23 (-2.9%) | 50-day SMA: 123.57
Potash is almost immune to market turbulence and it's not the only fertilizer stock rocking the free world. Too pricey still.
7. CHL 83.88 -1.56 (-1.8%) | 50-day SMA: 89.83 | 100-day SMA: 81.82
Bears are in charge of this great stock. Four of the last six sessions have been down for China Mobile, and those four trading days had big volume compared to the up sessions. I'd continue to inch in here with an eye on 80 as a key support level.
8. PTR 176.00 +5.36 (+3.1%) | 50-day SMA: 199.40 | 100-day SMA: 184.71 | 200-day SMA: 157.72
PetroChina was due for a rally, and with crude oil hovering near $100/barrel, why not now? I started inching into PTR in the Pupule portfolio recently and will continue to do so at these levels. The world will always need oil. China needs oil. OK, maybe alternative energy becomes substantial within five years. That's plenty of time for PTR to run.
9. FSLR 245.58 -20.29 (-7.6%) | 50-day SMA: 215.47 | 100-day SMA: 163.93
Finally, a gap down, and yet, First Solar is miles from any kind of a fair price. Wait.
10. MCD 57.05 -0.88 (-1.5%) | 50-day SMA: 58.61 | 100-day SMA: 55.15
A pullback like this in McDonald's is absolutely stupid. Now 11% down from its recent high, MCD is still selling a ton of latte, a ton of snack wraps (kids love 'em) and basically stealing customers from Starbucks. (A Mickey D and Starbucks were built next to each other recently in Honolulu. Guess which one is always packed and which one is half-empty?) The "Dollar Menu" at McDonald's is BUILT for recessions. Certainly worth inching in here.

11. STP 81.84 -6.38 (-7.2%) | 50-day SMA: 71.64
Buy here? Fuggedaboudit. Today's pullback is a speck of dust compared to this insane run from 45. Wait.
12. CMG 127.01 -14.69 (-10.4%) | 50-day SMA: 135.77 | 100-day SMA: 124.02
Chipotle Mexican Grill is getting cheaper and cheaper. This is a nice price to inch in, but will consumers opt to buy fast, healthy Mexican food rather than the dollar menu at Mickey D's?
13. BIDU 361.00 -14.09 (-3.7%) | 50-day SMA: 367.50 | 100-day SMA: 313.93
After five down days in a row, Baidu is worth inching in here. Still easily capable of falling to support level at 300.
14. FWLT 159.69 -9.48 (-5.6%) | 50-day SMA: 150.46
Recession proof? Possibly. But this price is still too high.
15. FLS 93.20 -2.95 (-3.1%) | 50-day SMA: 91.71
Another stock that thrives in global growth, but pricey here. Wait.

16. FMCN 55.71 -3.27 (-5.5%) | 50-day SMA: 57.00 | 100-day SMA: 52.83
Down big on moderate volume, worth inching in here.
17. GS 199.93 -4.91 (-2.4%) | 50-day SMA: 218.79 | 100-day SMA: 209.50 | 200-day SMA: 212.21
Goldman Sachs is king and emperor of the financials, the Godfather of Greenbacks. And yet, the stock is on thin ice right here; 200 is a key support level. If GS falls through, next stop is 180, and then 160. Inching in is a good idea, but don't dive head first.
18. NKE 61.74 -0.97 (-1.5%) | 50-day SMA: 64.06 | 100-day SMA: 60.86
Fair price, almost good. Six down days in a row, but I like the growing international exposure (China) and commitment.
19. CEO 170.50 +0.66 (+0.4%) | 50-day SMA: 176.57 | 100-day SMA: 159.95
Like PetroChina, CNOOC Ltd. is a state-owned entity in the Middle Kingdom. I missed the boat on CEO twice: once at 91, later at 111. With the latter, the P/E was only 12. Then it ran to 215. Here, CEO is still a fair price, but I'd inch in only. The stock has run up with increasing volume for two days and could be due for a pullback.
20. VMW 80.49 -3.46 (-4.1%) | 50-day SMA: 94.54 | 100-day SMA: 87.04
Dead money for a few weeks now unless you're a short. Nice price for a near-term trade, though. Inching in for the Pupule portfolio with an eye on support at 71.

21. LULU 40.54 -4.22 (-9.4%) | 50-day SMA: 43.95 | 100-day SMA: 42.03
Today's hellacious jobs report casts a bad omen for retailers. Pricey yoga pants ($100/pair) aren't a big priority if and when we head into a recession. But I do think that lululemon athletica's core customers are not affected by layoffs in the financial and homebuilding sectors. LULU's customers will continue to work out, and they will show off the results by purchasing lululemon pants. Women 18-35 will keep on keepin' on. They will keep spending. It's the vanity factor. It works well.
22. MSFT 34.38 -0.99 (-2.8%) | 50-day SMA: 34.65 | 100-day SMA: 31.86
The Halo effect is done. What drives Mister Softee from here? As Sgt. Schultz often said, "I see nothing!" Scaling in here for a near-term trade on the Pupule portfolio.
23. AMZN 88.79 -6.42 (-6.7%) | 50-day SMA: 87.82 | 100-day SMA: 87.19
Another stock, like RIMM, that will lead a market rally if the Fed cuts. Amazon bluntly told the world that unlike other struggling online retailers, its sales were quite fine, thank you. Price is better, but not quite good yet. Wait.
24. EBAY 31.30 -1.54 (-4.7%) | 50-day SMA: 33.51 | 100-day SMA: 35.19 | 200-day SMA: 34.20
If the country is heading for a recession, it will be the eBays of the world that will benefit. Still, the stock took a hit today. Inching in on the Pupule portfolio.
25. LFC 73.00 -1.64 (-2.2%) | 50-day SMA: 83.99 | 100-day SMA: 81.68 | 200-day SMA: 66.44
Does anyone really think life insurance won't work in China? This is a land, as I've mentioned before, where ancestor worship was once the rule. As the middle-agers accumulate wealth, they will put their hard-earned money into life insurance while the younger generation plays the stock market.

On the cusp: Taking a close look this weekend at Costco and Altria as additions to the Top 25.

No. 16 Focus Media: Out of a mess and focused again

I once loved this stock. Then I hated it. Now, I watch it from afar. When Focus Media had a snafu and asked the SEC for a delay in submitting a quarterly earnings report, I went from bullish to frustrated. I finally sold as the Co stayed mum on all things, leaving shareholders in the dark. I took the loss, cursed FMCN and moved on. Then, the Co announced that the problem, which originated with a short seller, had worked out, the stock began to recover.


















FMCN is still a promising company in the fastest growing nation in the world (if there's another, please tell me). Advertising in China is still somewhat untapped, and FMCN has to move quickly to capitalize.

Pupule's Top 25 (Dec. 25)

Shanghai market may Sit down soon

From Gene Sit, veteran China investment manager:

BusinessWeek: Waiting Out the Bubble

Why do you think the damage won't be too bad?
We see a soft landing because we think fundamentals will continue to be good. China's GDP might not be 10% to 11%, but it might be 8% to 9% after the summer of 2008. That's because China now has the money, with growing reserves, and the trade numbers continue to be quite favorable. The government has the resources to build the country's infrastructure, and it can improve living and environmental conditions. Plus, the savings rate is very high, and corporations are making money.

A rare Monday down day

So much for fears over the People's National Congress in China. While Chinese stocks held ground and some even soared to new highs — unexpectedly in the eyes of some concerned investors and traders — it was the U.S. market that folded a bit. The Dow Jones fell 108 points (0.77%), Nasdaq dropped 25 points (0.91%) and S&P 500 dipped 13 points (0.84%). The Dow fell under 14,000 to 13,984. Was it Citigroup's dismal earnings report? Possibly, but the Co had already warned about lower earnings. Was it crude oil, which finished the day above $86 a barrel? Not really. The market has gained significantly on oil's up days in the past few weeks.

Maybe it's just a little more fear and profit-taking than usual. More financials will report this week. But with Yahoo (Tuesday), eBay (Wednesday) and Google (Thursday) reporting this week, the Nasdaq will have some volatility. I'm not expecting much from the first two, though Yahoo's earnings from Asia could be significant. How soon will eBay penetrate the Chinese market? I won't be holding my breath. Google failed to meet expectations last quarter, but their game plan is sound. Spending on R&D and new hires as they expand in China is acceptable in my book. The G-phone is a bonus.

China held up, which still sounds a bit surprising. Just a little. New Oriental Education and Technology (EDU) launched to a new high after announcing earnings before the open. EDU closed on Friday above 66, opened today at 71 and closed at 75. That was a nice response to the PNC's first day. Nearly all the Chinese stocks that I watch are virtually the only greenies on my lists. CMED is at 42 (after hours). FMCN is up 1.7% to 59.15. CHL is up 1.9% to 88.80.

China and oil continue to be a glorious combination. PTR is up 9.2% to 236 and CEO is up 5.7% to 188 (after a mid-day high of 192). CEO was at 92 on subprime meltdown day (August 16). The stock was up big in premarket on less than 10,000 shares, triggered by crude oil's gain. I think.

CHL is up 1.9% to 88.80. STV was surprisingly positive, now at 50.15 (up 2.1%).

No, China wasn't perfect. BIDU dropped 2.7% to 314. SINA and YGE were down. Even Macao plays LVS and WYNN were down.

Note to self: don't fight the trends. Oil rules. China energy and pollution are going to be Quarry Logic fixtures for decades to come. The Chinese middle class will not be deprived.

Focus Media CC transcript

Transcript of the (almost eternally delayed) Q2 earnings report conference call.

Focus Media Q2 2007 Earnings Call Transcript

For the record, anyway. Something about this whole process doesn't smell right, but maybe I'm just sour because I'm no longer long. Anything that remotely stinks as bad as Dendreon's management has me racing to the exit door. That's a good thing.

I love you, I hate you (FMCN)

Eric Savitz explains the latest on Focus Media. It's a strange, suspicious scenario that I wanted no part of after the "delay" to straighten out the earnings report.

Eric Savitz: Focus Media Soars As Audit Committee Finds No Undisclosed Rebate Payments

Now that I'm out, the stock is running wild. I should've trusted Basic Axiom of China Stocks #1: No industry leader shall fail (not if the government can help it!).

Bully for Baidu

Is this the right stop? Do Baidu passengers get off here and wait for a cheaper fare on the next round? Frankly, a stock that soars from 161 to 300 in five weeks is either a) on steroids, b) from another planet, or c) supported by cultists. But really, how does a relatively teeny company not only fend off, but dominate the Chinese search engine space over King of the Warlords, Google?

I have always, and will probably continue to suspect that protectionism is alive and well in the MIddle Kingdom. Is it our responsibility to select stocks that are truly independent? Is it our business to invest (or trade) only in stocks that are on an even playing field? I say no. The rules are in place, and if you don't use them to your advantage, there will be no whining allowed later. That being said, I regret not staying in Focus Media and Sina, but not as much as I lament not being seriously long in CNOOC Ltd. and Baidu.

I figure I'm not alone. How many of us know China is a runaway train and still don't won't dip both feet in the water, let alone plunge in? Is this where BIDU pulls back 50 points? Does BIDU pause, refresh, and then run another 140 points?

There is no logic, though some may try to convince me otherwise.

CNNMoney.com/Paul R. La Monica: The Baidu bull run

Pit stops today for growth kings

Wow. No posts here for three days. Maybe I have a life after all. Some passing thoughts on a supposedly down day.

• Georges Yared is right. Again. Just a few days ago, he wrote that AAPL's life below $150 per share was coming to an end soon. The stock has run from the 130s to today's high of 150.22 in a short time. Yared has been a persistent bull when it comes to certain growth stocks. He's been right. Bull's eye right, and that's why I continue to absorb his writing.

• BIDU continues to fluctuate today. With the NAS flitting below and above neutral in this first hour, BIDU dropped to 295 before rallying back to 300. An insane run for a stock that hit a subprime-sludge low of 161 on August 16. I can't help but think that a lot of money has gone to BIDU stock because a) it's in China, and b) it's a search engine. And that's it. Profits are nothing special. All Baidu really has is huge growth margins in a country of 1.3 billion people, most of whom still don't have computers. That's where cellphone web access comes into play, and that's why I wonder why BIDU is taking so long to anchor itself in that realm. Chinese access the web more by cellphone than computer. It's not even close. I just wonder if Alibaba, a major IM company that's 40% owned by Yahoo, will ever open an ADR in the states.

• CROX is running up again. A lot of bulls are expecting the Co to share robust mid-Q3 numbers during a presentation this morning. The stock broke through the 60 barrier on Monday with major volume.

• Among the small group of stocks on the plus side early in the day was GRMN, which hit an all-time high of 120. Stock pulled back and is now at 117.58. The stock has doubled since late May, and I wonder if a split is imminent. I'm not a big fan of splits, but I don't avoid them, either.

• LULU has been sitting for much of the morning at 39. When Cramer pumped the stock last week with a long segment, LULU made a couple of runs to the 41-plus range. I think LULU sits in this range until earnings, but you never know...

• MCD is consolidating after last week's magical run off the announcement of a 50% increase in the dividend. I got a few shares, mainly for my nephew (he loves the chicken snack wrap and has loved McDonald's all his life), but I don't see another run in the shares until earnings. Maybe the Co can make a deal with Apple and give away iTune songs in the McCafe and at the drive-thru. So wacky that it could happen.

• NILE had a couple of runs to 105-106 recently, but pulled back to 99-100 both times. Today, the stock is locked mostly in a 98-100 range, taking a breather since its run from 80 during the past two weeks. No complaints here. I'm just glad I got a little piece at 80. Sure, I wish I'd gotten more at 80 (or even 75), but this was pre-Fed rate meeting, so what I did (by my standards) was spooky. The older I get, the more adverse I am to risk. It's the dang truth and I can't deny it.

• RIMM broke into positive territory before much of the market and has kept its gains. I wonder how sales are going in China.

• Another favorite of my nephew's, Under Armor, hasn't been much in this rally. UA is down 1.2% to 63.92. I just think the forward P/E (47) is still a bear argument that a lot of bulls have bought. I can't argue against it when CROX is trading at a forward P/E of 23.

• Nintendo is forming a base here above 60, much to the relief of longs like me who had foolishly bought more shares at these levels. Though I won't be buying any stock at these lofty prices, it's reassuring to know that my A and A- stock picks have great reasons that more than justify their valuations. The Wii is still a killer app, as is the DS, and that won't change going into Christmas season.

I love you, I hate you: Well, well. Focus Media has finally cleared up its Q2 filing mess and the stock is up 15.4% so far. I would be angry about this, as a former FMCN long, but I'm past that. At some point, this is still going to be a piece of Chinese advertising that I want, but I need a bargain price first.

And speaking of China, Yingli Green Energy is up 3.7% to 25.64. The whole oil patch craziness is intriguing. Oil prices go up, CNOOC Ltd., PetroChina and Exxon go up, and so do the solar/clean energy stocks. I'm just surprised, with the U.S. economy slowing, that I haven't kept my toes in China's waters.

Double-checking the shopping list

On Friday, I did some mental preparation (as opposed to physical prep via barf bag for another turbulent ride) by staking out some price targets if stocks plunged again.

Well, Nasdaq is actually up 7 points today, but a large majority of the strongest growth stocks have been stunted. One of my favorites, CROX, actually fell from $59 at the open to a low of $52, but I missed the bargain-buying opportunity. It was bedtime for me (4-7 a.m. Hawaii time). Oh well.

Here's a look at my A- and B+ stock lists and where the targets compare as of 1:50 p.m. Eastern time.





[A-] Amazon (AMZN), Friday price 76, target 70 ... today's low 76, currently 77
[A-] Apple (AAPL), now 131, target 125 ... today's low 128, currently 132
[A-] Baidu (BIDU), now 198, target 175 ... today's low 186, currently 191
[A-] Crocs (CROX), now 58, target 54 ... today's low 52.50, currently 55
[A-] Foster Wheeler (FWLT), now 110, target 98 ... today's low 101, currently 101
[A-] Garmin (GRMN), now 98, target 88 ... today's low 95, currently 95
[A-] Google (GOOG), now 503, target 480 ... today's low 502, currently 507
[A-] Nintendo (NTDOY.PK), now 56, target 55 ... today's low n/a, current bid 57.20, current ask 57.50
[A-] Research in Motion (RIMM), now 218, target 206 ... today's low 213, currently 217
[A-] Under Armor (UA), now 64, target 60 ... today's low 62, currently 63

Of these 10 A- picks, only one has already hit the target (CROX).





[B+] China Medical Parts (CMED), now 32, target 30 ... today's low 27, currently 28
[B+] CNOOC Ltd. (CEO), now 113, target 111 ... today's low 109, currently 109
[B+] Darden Intl. (DAR), now 8.03, target 7.50 ... today's low 7.82, currently 8.03
[B+] Flowserve (FLS), now 68, target 65 ... today's low 67, currently 68
[B+] Focus Media (FMCN), now 39, target 35 ... today's low 37, currently 37
[B+] Gmarket (GMKT), now 22, target 21 ... today's low 21.55, currently 22.32
[B+] HDFC Bank (HDB), now 81, target 73 ... today's low 81, currently 83
[B+] Intercontinental Exch. (ICE), now 153, target 140 ... today's low 148, currently 152
[B+] Opsware (OPSW), sold to HPQ at 14.25
[B+] Potash Corp. (POT), now 85, target 77 ... today's low 81, currently 82
[B+] Precision Castparts (PCP), now 137, target 125 ... today's low 134, currently 135
[B+] Salesforce.com (CRM), now 39, target 27 ... today's low 38, currently 40
[B+] SanDisk (SNDK), now 53, target 49 ... today's low 53, currently 53
[B+] Sina Corp. (SINA), now 42, target 40 ... today's low 40.85, currently 41.63

Of the 14 B+, two Chinese stocks hit targets. CMED is a tough call even at 28. CEO, though, trades at only 11 times earnings and is a solid oil/gas play out of China. Plenty of growth ahead as an off-shore driller providing energy for a booming economy.

Gmarket of South Korea is another nice company on this radar. The robust earnings report of last week was nice, but I want to examine GMKT's potential competition across East Asia a lot more closely.

Overall, there's no point in climbing into a plane when weather is stormy. If anything, small ball (chiseling in with small positions) could work here, but I'm going to wait it out before buying more.

Pupule Paul is long AAPL, BIDU, CROX, NTDOY.PK, UA, FMCN and SINA.

Forbes fetes Focus Media

While investors and observers wait on baited breath over the ordeal at Focus Media, at least one publication is bullish on the stock.

Earlier in the week, Shlomo Reifman of Forbes.com listed Focus Media as a strong China pick in terms of EPS growth and forward P/E. With EPS growth at 37% and a forward P/E of 23, FMCN rated well with a group that includes China Petroleum and Chemical (SNP), PetroChina (PTR), Suntech Power (STP) and The9 (NCTY).

Not bad comany, but the article won't do much to alleviate the nerves of FMCN longs. The stock has fallen from a high of $52 in early June to $39.