Idling and parking (updated)

8:26 am (Hawaii) Some long, fun days for me with summer here, which means I've slept through the past two sessions for the most part. Even though I knew futures were up more than 100 points last night. The Dow is +203 with about 90 minutes left. AAPL is hovering around 570, off its intraday high of 573.85. AGQ is up 5.1% to 43.86, one of the most obvious signs that sentiment is with the bulls, i.e. euro printing is about to crank into full madness.

DGP is barely green today, however. Also note that volume is a pittance, so this move could pop any moment. It's a three-legged chair. It's a lack of sellers more than an onslaught of buyers. Even social media are up: FB +0.9%, YELP +4.3%. Even GRPN +7.4%.

Finnies are rallying again. JPM is +2.6% and FAS is +6.66 percent (not making that up). VXX is down 4.8% and TVIX is -8.9%.

I have some work to do, in and out this morning (yes, it's still morning here in the middle of the Pacific), and I'm not convinced about this move higher. I may dip into DGP or even NUGT with a tight stop, but that's it. This arena is half empty, and if the balloon pops in Europe, the tankage will resume. My gut tells me they have to print, though. It's a conundrum.

Update 10:04 am In and out of FAS for a quick little profit. Got in at 77.70 a few minutes before the closing bell. Swung lower to about 77.45 before it closed strong. A few minutes after the bell, sold at 78.45. They'll puppeteer this thing back to 77.70 or so at some point today, I'm guessing.

Of course, now that I'm out, it will go to 80, then 85, then 90. They must print euros. Simple as that. So why am I not in gold and/or silver? Both have made big runs recently. I'll wait until things cool off a little more before walking into that. Because any whiff of bad news regarding the ECB, eurozone, Germany ... and FAS goes back to 68. And lower.

Just another uneventful, ordinary day

8:01 am (Hawaii) Spent the past hour or so occupied with work, but now I'm back to see the Dow down "only" 290 points. Quite a comeback. It could be back to -400 in 5 minutes, I know, I know, I know. But FAZ is down below 67 and SocGen is down just 12.8% after being shredded to -22% earlier in the day. Everything has its limits and when the limits are stretched too far, just like Le Fly says, there's a rubber-band, snapback result. Eventually.

Gold continues to stay near its highs. DGP is at 64.50. But silver is roaring today. Probably a massive short-covering, but it was due. AGQ at 204.75 after hitting an intraday high of 207.03. Do the puppeteers dare naked it short silver back to 160? Possibly. I'm not touching ZSL or AGQ right now unless a new catalyst hits the market. AGQ is up 10.5% here, topping my Metals list.

AG (+10.6%), FSG, GSS, NUGT, PSLV, EXK, SVM, GPL, NGD, REE ... all at least 7% up for the day with less than 2 hours left. I wonder how well the silver and gold miners will hold up if the market continues to slide downhill. Is this a brief respite from the hellhole that miners had been buried in for weeks and months? Or is this move going to be long term since gold is becoming more popular with human beings who hate seeing their hard-earned fiat dollars turn to shit because of inflation and a fucked-up monetary system?

I tend to think it's the latter.

Might be a nice play in AAPL going into the bell. Now at 372, just off its high of the day. I got out at this level early in the session. I just don't see, hear, smell a catalyst that can sustain a run higher. Hmm...

Coffee, cream and METAL MANIA! (updated)

8:24 am (Hawaii) It rained overnight in Honolulu. Weather was cool for a July night. Perfect sleeping weather. I just got up after a productive workout last night, and it's almost the end of the session. Did I miss anything?

Hell yes. I remember Turd Ferguson noting yesterday that, technically, he expects gold to break out to a new high, and if that happened ... fully bullish. Turn on the TV. Turn on the computer. I sorta dread this. If gold breaks out, good. My XG and DGP will do nicely, even at small quantities. But I sold out of AGQ two days ago at a loss of $12/share. Small, small position, but still.

The Metals list I keep is almost all green (79%). It's a wipeout day for Metals bears. Only the bearish ETFs and ETNs are red. The indices are all up. XG is up 5%, DGP up 1.3%. AGQ is up 10% to 195. I sold at 172. Again, my timing ... not so good. I'm glad I held some gold stocks. It's like selling FAZ last Friday instead of holding until Monday. That cost me some. But the AGQ sell just cost me roughly $600. That's on a small position, really small. And if silver continues to rise, AGQ keeps going up at double warp speed, who knows, maybe to its all-time high at 382 (April 28).

I can imagine it's been a wonderful day so far for metal bugs. But Turd's site is down. Has it been overwhelmed by all the excitement? I need my Turd & Turdites fix.

James Turk, in his consistent, almost monotone voice, has been pounding the table for gold for a few months. He keeps repeating that this will be (not could be) a breakout summer for gold. Yesterday, he said it would be like the summer of 1982, when Mexico's default led to a golden rocketship. Holy cow, Mr. Turk is probably correct.

Everything at the top of my Metals list gapped up and is already enjoying bigger volume than yesterday: AGQ, AG, NUGT, EGO, SVM, SIL, DBS, XG, SLV, PSLV, GOLD, GDXJ, SLW, PLTM, EXK, REE, GDX, COPX ... wait, I take that back. PLTM hasn't matched yesterday's volume yet. It's all almost too good to be true. Like a setup. But on this kind of volume? I doubt it. It's usually a thin market that gets toyed with and peon traders like me get puppeteered.

Is it this simple? Obama threatens to yank Social Security, and the market reads it as a desperate threat and confirmation that QE3 is on? Or what's-his-face on Capitol Hill, the Republican who caved in and compromised on the Democrats' offer yesterday ... that's what's driving this? I haven't had time to check yet. Maybe after a bowl of cereal.

Update 8:51 am (Hawaii) On the 15-minute chart, AGQ has never exploded like it did this morning at the open. There was major volume two days ago, when shares sold off. But this morning was to the upside in a gap up. Trying find an entry point is difficult here. After closing yesterday at 177.68, there's a lot of room to pull back.

Has the CME mafia and the govt lost control of the price? Is the manipulation over? Probably not on both counts. But yesterday and today show that even in the middle of what's supposed to be the summer doldrums, the market may be too powerful to shackle 100% of the time — especially when it comes to gold. That is where old money resides. Old BIG money.

Update 9:07 am (Hawaii) Excellent post at SilverGoldSilver.com by guest writer SRSrocco about commercial shorts losing grip on silver. I'll add it to the library reading list later today. I got to eat some cereal. Kept watching AGQ but couldn't find a suitable point of entry. Now it's pulling back below 196, it looks like ... feeling desperate to get in near the highs is never a good feeling, and rarely leads to good results. I like the feeling of buying cheap, it's just that I really don't expect AGQ to go back near 177 any time soon.

Only a rocket ship loaded with 10 trillion ounces of gold and silver from another galaxy could save the US economy here. And that would be bullish for PMs. Production/GDP/jobs aren't about to spike high in the next several months. Not even space aliens can repair that.

Silver and gold stars

11:06 am (Hawaii) Today's silver stars?

GPL 3.82 +0.22 (+6.1%) volume slightly up

SLW 36.75 +1.77 (+5.1%) volume slightly up

EXK 9.81 +0.44 (+4.7%) volume slightly down

PAAS 46.44 +1.59 (+3.6%) volume slightly down

SIL 25.01 +0.67 (+2.8%) volume up big

AG 20.28 +0.42 (+2.1%) volume slightly up

SVM 10.37 +0.13 (+1.3%) volume slightly up

AGQ 177.38 +2.18 (+1.2%) volume even

All are afterhours prices. Not a lot of depth in silver gainers, but notable.

Gold stars:

NUGT 32.65 +1.92 (+6.3%) volume slightly down

GG 52.45 +2.04 (+4.1%) volume up big

NGD 10.75 +0.40 (+3.9%) volume slightly up

EGO 16.37 +0.55 (+3.6%) volume slightly up

XG 14.50 +0.46 (+3.3%) volume slightly up

GDX 57.36 +1.74 (+3.1%) volume up

ABX 47.14 +1.26 (+2.8%) volume up

GDXJ 36.30 +0.80 (+2.3%) volume up big

DGP 50.76 +0.74 (+1.5%) volume up big

UGL 53.80 (+1.4%) volume slightly up

Reign of the metals

8:11 am (Hawaii) Just up from a nice night of sleep. It's cloudy and somewhat cool in Honolulu, a day after the 4th of July. The real fireworks are happening in precious metals.

SVM is up 11.3% to 10.12 on massive volume. EXK up 10.2% to 9.03 on massive volume. AGQ up 8.8%, average volume. AG up 8.2%, massive volume. GPL up 7.1% on solid volume. NUGT up 6.3% on good volume. SLW up 6% on decent volume. EGO up 6% on good volume. PSLV up 4.6% on average volume. DBS up 4.5% on modest volume.

SLV, SIL, NGD, XG, FSG, GDXJ, GG, PAAS, DGP, UGL, WITE, ABX, GDX, GLTR, PSAU, PALL, DBP — all up more than 2%. Just about all are also off their highs of the day. Why such bullishness? Is it rumor that the debt ceiling will be increased (again)? Possibly.

73% of my Metals list is green. What's not working? ZSL, obviously. DUST also down big. REE is sinking, -5.4% after Japan released news of a major rare earths find on a nearby seabed. Getting all that up to surface is challenge, but the info was enough to hit REE and AVL hard. MCP is down "only" 1.1%.

Crude is up, the indices are flat. Metals up big. I remained heavy in cash going into this week. If we have already hit a bottom in silver and gold, if James Turk and other goldbugs are correct in predicting a monster run in PMs this summer, this would be the time to move in. (Actually, it would've been last week when spot silver was below 34.) But I'm still in wait-and-see mode. My favorite miners remain EXK and XG, but I've got no position in them. I won't be walking in at these levels. If anything, I'll start with a small position on a dip and see how the week plays out.

One thing is for sure: volume in silver is heavy today, for whatever reason. Maybe hedge funds are piling in because they already loaded up on stocks last week. That money has to go somewhere and the hedgies tend to move in packs.

Update 8:33 am (Hawaii) Between AAPL, AMZN and BIDU — big boys with growth — BIDU continues to move up with strength in volume. AAPL and AMZN are up today, but volume has petered out. Not touching any of these for now. BIDU could reverse any time and the flaky behavior of the indices seem to indicate that the bull run of the past week is slowing.

NFLX is up 6.8% on major volume, now trading at 286+.

Wednesday afternoon cinema & library (updated)

10:30 am (Hawaii) Just a lazy morning in Honolulu, partly cloudy, 80 degrees, light tradewinds as I enjoy the coolness out on my lanai. Haven't touched the TV remote all morning and enjoying zero white noise. DJ +0.6% to 12,261. Nas +0.4% to 2,740. S&P +0.8% to 1,307. End-of-month window dressing continues. Crude oil up; UCO +4.5% on roughly double of yesterday's volume.

AGQ, GPL, NUGT, COPX, PAAS, NGD, CU, GDXJ, DBS, AG, SLV, SLW top my Metals list (74% green). The miners: NUGT, GD XJ, SLW have significantly higher volume today, but the rest of the leaders had matching numbers to yesterday. Miners were long overdue for a bounce. Beware of dead cats.

Video

(new) StormCloudsGathering: Why the national debt will never be repaid (June 29 2011)

RealDemocracyGr: Greek police vs. Protestors (June 29 2011)
ABC: Fire surrounds New Mexico nuclear lab (June 29 2011)
morganslv: Silver update (June 29 2011)
MSNBC: Greece OKs austerity plan as riots grip Athens (June 29 2011)
James Turk: Philipp Vorndran interview (June 29 2011)
Robin Griffiths: Gold, silver will behave as money, not as commodities (June 29 2011)
Wafdawg: The psychology of silver and independence (June 29 2011)
MoneyBags73: 5 weeks to US default on debt obligations (June 28 2011)
Ron Paul: People are finally waking up to the tyranny (June 28 2011)
Sean Brodrick: Big stocks with big, fat dividends (June 28 2011)

(new) syyenergy7: Bob Chapman article from 2003, Silverado Gold (June 25 2011)
Robert Kiyosaki: Food storage, guns for coming 2012 Depression (Mar 22 2011)

Reports & Blogs

Silverfuturist: Master Pattern silver: $26 then $50 this year? (June 29 2011)
• Reasonable enough, though I don't expect 26. Then again, Spot silver went from 21 to 9 (57% pullback) before running to 49. A 57% pullback from 49 would take spot to 21. Again, I doubt that scenario.
Turd Ferguson: ChartDaddy (June 29 2011)
• Copper as a predictor?
Mineweb: China's first precious metals spot exchange opens in 'Silver City' (June 29 2011)

Chris Whalen: $200 billion in claims against JP Morgan, banks (June 29 2011)
Max Keiser: Live blogging from witness in Syntagma Square (June 29 2011)

Bix Weir: Frightening Comex silver volume in May massively distorts silver price (June 29 2011)
Dan Norcini: Gold-silver ration reflects trader views toward 'risk' (June 29 2011)
Ian Wyatt: Don't ignore this silver trend (June 29 2011)

Sam Kirtley: A look at trading gold and its Eurozone crisis premium (June 29 2011)
Chris Martenson: The screaming fundamentals for owning gold, silver (June 29 2011)

Doug Groh: Not adding gold bullion now (June 29 2011)

Kevin Kerr: Why Obama's desperate move could send oil ETF prices soaring (June 29 2011)

CNBC: Apple may offer older iPhone for free in fall (June 29 2011)
Info Wars: Ron Paul: Obama's Libya War power grab impeachable (June 29 2011)
Jeb Handwerger: Investors around the world monitoring expiration of QE2 (June 29 2011)
Salt Lake Tribune: Lee: Gold, silver should be treated like currency (June 29 2011)
Gary North: Geithner's victims of last resort (June 29 2011)

(new) U. of California Dept. of Nuclear Engineering: Radiation sampling results (June 28 2011)

James Turk: Summer gold trading will be one for history books (June 28 2011)

New York Sun: A first step to sound money (June 28 2011)

Jason Hommel: How I felt when I bought silver (June 28 2011)
• Tim Geithner: Letter to Sen. Michael Bennet (May 13 2011)
Vedran Vuk: China becomes choosy (June 29 2011)
Marin Katusa: America's oil supply: keystone for survival (June 29 2011)
Michael Johnson: Five muni ETFs to watch if Meredith Whitney's call is right (June 29 2011)
Tony Sagami: Latin stocks that are making a bundle from China (June 29 2011)
Le Fly: The Great Spectacular Continues (June 29 2011)
• He went long financials
Zero Hedge: US Mint to start selling 2011 ASE proofs at 75% premium (June 29 2011)
Doug Hornig: The great nugget scam (June 28 2011)
Wallet Pop: Food stamps for fast food? (June 28 2011)

New America Now: Economic collapse, top 5 places not to be (June 26 2011)
Gary North: Bernanke channels Benchley (June 25 2011)

Denise Milani

Easy come, easy go

9:10 am (Hawaii) Is this a paper mache market today? I woke up a few times in the past few hours, checked volume, and went back to sleep. Traders who stepped in on Monday and early today made their profits, but beyond today, it's all fluff, I'm guessing. Though my Regular watch list is 82% green, just about every upside play has anemic volume. A few have similar volume to yesterday or volume that's close to average. But a large majority are up on hardly any trading. Major caution sign!

Monster Worldwide (MWW) is an exception. Big volume, nice candlestick. CYB (Wisdom Tree Chinese yuan fund) is also up on huge volume. I'm always interested in ways to play yuan long term. Anyone (not me) with a huge stack of benjamins in the bank has to think about buying a significant amount of yuan to hedge against inflation.

73% of my Metals list is green, but it's the same trap there with light volume. It's true that there have been big moves, week-long moves, right after stocks trade lightly. Maybe we just don't have any sellers left. Maybe China saving the Eurozone (temporarily) is enough. Maybe the Fed buying up Treasurys is enough. Maybe Nike beating expectations is plenty. But I'm not sold on this.

The one byproduct of today's gains (DJ +1.1%, Nas +1.3%, S&P +1.1%) is that silver's downward momentum has finally stopped, at least for today. GPL (+5.9%), EXK (+4.6%), AG (+2.7%), SIL (+2.5%), SLW (+2.4%, PSLV (+2.2%) all helping the miners sector. But it's hard to get excited when volume is so restrained.

Gold also has a bunch of healthy players, including NUGT (+2.9%), NGD (+2.3%) and GDXJ (+2%), but again, thin volume. XG and GG are up on massive volume. Crude oil is up. Copper is up. But on the whole, it all smells more like end-of-month buying by hedge funds to pretty up the books, not a legit turnaround. There isn't another clear catalyst in sight, which means we could see a slow meltdown for days to come. Perhaps weeks. Same scenario we had a week ago, but in slow-motion. It's thinnish markets like this that set up the average guy for a beatdown via flash crash. I'm content to be mostly cash and getting my sleep.

Not quite minus squared

9:37 am (Hawaii) Market is down (Dow -99.83/-0.8%, Nas -31.77/-1.2%, S&P -13.09/-1.0%), but it's not convincing of an onrushing disaster, either. Dollar is up 6/10th of a percentage point, crude oil down again (SCO up 1%). The Metals list is 27% green, 73% red with a majority on the plus side being bear plays. But the key is low volume up and down. Maybe it's a respite of sorts and Monday begins a bloodbath. Or maybe this market will remain choppy, indignant and petulant.

ZSL is up 5.3% to 19.46. DUST, QID, gold bears GLL and DZZ are among the leaders on the list. REE, MCP and AVL have kept rare earths near the top.

Meanwhile, the finnies faded. Three were in the green in the opening minutes today, but now all are in the red. NBG, which got up to 1.43 yesterday on the positive news of austerity psuedo-measures, is down 7% to 1.32. Pulling back is no surprise, but I thought there might be continued momentum after profit-taking. It's tough to make it when you're a bankster.

Silver plays are getting minced again, not a shock. AGQ down 5.4% to 161.54, EXK (-5.2%), SLW (-4.3%), PAAS (-3%), GPL (-4.5%), SVM (-5.1%) are among the bruised silver miners. XG (-2%), NUGT (-5.3%), GG (-3.7%), GDXJ (-3.1%), DGP (-3%) are among the gold plays getting stomped. DGP's descent is unusual; it's normally not a big mover up or down. It's my lone play, a small position, and Spot Gold has room to fall, maybe to 1450. Not fun, but the puppet masters will do what they deem necessary to justify implementation of the next bailout/quantitative easing/big lie.

My Regular watch list is 26% green, 74% red. AAPL is down 1.6% to 325.95. TVIX (+7.5%) and VXX (+3.7%) are up big, as is QID (+3.5%). No buyers, and it seems some hedge funds have emptied out. It's nice to rest easy on summer vacation.

It gets interesting on the Regular list. CMG (+1.1%), RLOC (+0.8%), CSTR (+0.3%) are up. Then it's red, red, red, red ...

Interest rates status quo

 

6:27 am (Hawaii): Breaking news is no change in interest rates. That's no surprise. I like how the info usually gets released (on paper) to the media this way, an hour or two before Bernanke speaks. The FOMC statement notes the weakening labor numbers.

Generally bullish despite the flat indice numbers so far today. The losers on my Regular watch list are mostly down less than 1%, though NFLX is way near the bottom.

My Metals list is 75% green, 25% red. GPL is up 6%, EGO up 4.5%, NGD up 4.1%, NUGT up 3.8%, XG up 3.7%, MCP up 3%, GDXJ up 3%. My favorite miners are up: EXK (+1.3%) and XG (+3.2%). Both have comparable volume to yesterday at this point.

More losers: DUST (-3.8%), SCO (-2.2%), ZSL (-1.2%).

AAPL is flat. UUP flat, also. While other miners are up nicely, PAAS is flat (+0.2%). GLD is up just 0.4%.

Hitting for power

6:59 am (Hawaii) Just got up to another cool morning in the islands, a nice 73 degrees, partly cloudy, low humidity. The market is where it's hot. Dow up 91.96 (+0.78%), Nas up 47.31 (+1.8%), S&P +14.60 (+1.1%).

Silver is on fire and dominating the top of my Metals list, which is 79% green, 19% red. Unlike other up days, volume is huge so far, which has me intrigued.

AG 17.85, +7.1%
SVM 9.16, +6.9%
EXK 8.37, +6.5%
PAAS 30.36, +6.3%
NUGT 28.73, +5.5%
AVL 6.56, +5%
XG 11.99, +4.9%
SLW 32.57, +4.5%
EGO 13.99, +4%
SIL 23.46, +4%
GOLD 77.69, +3.5%
GDXJ 33.67, +3.16%

All of these upside plays are close to yesterday's volume or, like EXK and XG, have already surpassed it. How is this possible? US Dollar down, Euro up, Greece going through the formalities after the closing bell. Bernanke to speak tomorrow. Even AAPL is up 2.8% to 324.27.

Is it just about Greece and the Euro? I'd say it was a weak dead-cat bounce, but on this kind of volume? The finnies are up big. NBG (+7.4%), BBVA (+2.6%), STD (+2.4%), C (+1.8%), BAC (+1.1%), GS (+1%), GS (+1%), JPM (+0.6%) all up. FAZ down 2.9%.

Whatever the reason, EXK once again bounced off the 7.50-7.60 area. This is no place to chase here.

As for rare earths, AVL is hot on fair volume, MCP is up 1.3% to 53.11 on tiny volume, and REE is up 2% to 10.36, also on very small volume. They had their big run yesterday, but today isn't all bad at all. Looking forward, I'm leaning more toward trading in rare earths and/or holding a small long-term position. Otherwise, I'm still 90% cash, haven't made a trade in nearly two weeks. The game plan was to wait until tomorrow for a signal in either direction and I'm content waiting this out.

My Regular watch list is 87% green, 13% red. The big boys like AAPL, DIS, GOOG, NFLX are up, but on low volume. The smaller players like LULU are up on huge volume (+5%).

Tuesday lunch munch

How's the ice down there?

7:15 am (Hawaii) Just woke up to a sunny, cool morning in the islands. Could not get that darn wireless connection going for an hour, so I'm out of bed and sitting at the desk. Just as well. There's a new Max Keiser report out, some good stuff with David Morgan about Utah's new precious metals coinage enacted into law.

China's inflation number (5.5%) met expectations, but is that really enough to slow bearish momentum?

My Metals list is 71% green, 28% red. The glaring common denominator, though, is that volume is anemic. Though we're just past halfway for the day, volume is scant, just like it was a few days ago when the market slide halted for a day. Top gainers so far: REE (+6.7% to 6.81), AVL (+6.6% to 6.28), EXK (+6.2% to 8.13), AG (+5.9% to 17.44), GPL (+4.9% to 3.00). That's two up days for GPL. SVM, AGQ, NGD, MCP and NUGT are also more than 3% up. A lot of big percentage gainers, but with so few shares traded, this could easily get shredded by the alien machines before the closing bell. My hunch is the gains will be pared somewhat, but still finish up nicely for the day. But with the poor volume, the downtrend will resume tomorrow.

TWN (-4.5%), ZSL (-4.3%), SCO (-3.8%), DUST (-3.8%) and FAZ (-3.4%) are the worst losers thus far.

Dow Jones +1.2%, NAS +1.5%, S&P +1.4%.

My Regular watch list is 86% green, 14% red, but again, volume is miniscule. There aren't many sellers, but there are even fewer buyers. It's the machines keeping the market above thin ice. AAPL is up 1.5% to 331.44, but volume is just 6.9 mil shares compared to yesterday's 11.7 mil.

(video) Max Keiser: Economic melt-through, David Morgan (June 14 2011)
Zero Hedge: Standard Chartered: '3 factors will drive gold to $5,000' (June 14 2011)
Standard Chartered: In gold we trust (full report) (June 14 2011)

Same as it ever was?

6:55 am (Hawaii) Finally awake and conscious after the alarm went off five hours ago. Long, busy weekend can do that to me. Not that I was anticipating a big move for the market or precious metals or AAPL or anything. I don't see any news regarding the national debt ceiling and Congress. I don't see any news about changes in the Middle East. In fact, unless something new surfaces, my attention is on the start of gold futures contracts trading at the Hang Seng Hong Kong in two days. It probably won't send tremors through the global market, but gradually, it could usurp much of the iron first held by London and New York on metals trading. Otherwise, Hang Seng Hong Kong wouldn't have gold futures trade EIGHTEEN 15 HOURS a day.

ZSL leads my metals list with a 5.9% gain, already up from 20.64 when I logged on to 20.83 now. Major volume in the past couple of minutes. Make that 20.90, a HOD. That means Spot Silver is getting crushed. If we see 30 there, I'll be ready to pounce on more physical. I thought we might see 30 last week, and there's a real chance it could dip to 27. But a 29-34 range is reasonable, all things considered. Crude Oil is down, now at 97.76. Spot Gold is at 1491, off its HOD of 1504. Dollar is down, too, which doesn't exactly make sense with Gold down.

So SCO is up, as are TWM, GRS, PSAU, NUGT ... that's right, gold miners are up again. If miners truly are leading indicators, that would explain silver plays dragging along and gold plays chugging rather than dipping as badly. Not all silver plays are down; PAAS is up 0.7%. But the worst on my list are AGQ (163.58) and EXK (8.50).

I remain 100% cash.

Update 7:20 am (Hawaii) Apmex is selling "just listed" fractional silver coins, so great, right? But at least one blog is touting these fractionals as cheap and a way to avoid paying way-high premiums. I looked and found that the prices of these fractionals are just as bad as the premiums on ASEs.

1/10 oz APMEX Mercury Dime Silver Round .999 Fine, $6.73 (check/wire), $6.93 (credit card)
With Spot Silver at 34.10, how is this Apmex price any good? At Spot, this Apmex dime silver round would be 3.41. Does it make any damned sense to pay DOUBLE the spot price?

The 1/4 oz is no better. None are.

1/4 oz APMEX Standing Liberty Quarter Silver Round .999 Fine
They're charging $13.06 (check/wire) for something that is 8.53 at spot. Fuck that.

1/2 oz Sunshine Minting Silver Round .999 Fine
APMEX is charging 20.84 (check/wire) for a coin that is actually 17.05 at spot. Another ripoff.

I don't mind anything that anybody sells. It's a free market in that sense. But any blog that touts this stuff as great to have, "not having to pay the $8 premiums on Silver Eagles," much more liquid when the world ends, blahblahblah ... why the hell would anyone tout something as being cheaper than the pre-existing premium ... when Apmex is clearly selling these fractionals exactly AT premium, percentage-wise?

They're pretty coins. They're just not cheaper than ASEs by any stretch. Be careful of misleading blogs. Especially if you're looking for a good deal like me.

Update 7:41 am (Hawaii) Even a regular peon like me can understand this much: The Chinese ain't joking around about the future. When they make moves like this, they follow through, and it explains the bounce in some gold plays today. Shanghai cutting margin limits on silver ... I've posted this before, but it's worth repeating. Are changes in margin requirements limited to one time only? Not usually. I'm as keen on Wednesday (May 18) and the birth of Hang Seng gold futures as much as ever.

Update 10:18 am (Hawaii) Mostly ignored price "action" today. AAPL dropping below 340 is interesting. Spot Silver at 33.63 means physical is lower, but is physical truly and fully discounted here? I bought a Scottsdale stacker (10 oz) on Friday at $387. It's now going for $373. Can't say I'm shocked, figuring that Spot could drop to 30 soon. The Academy hand-poured 10-oz bar is going for $379. These are the lowest prices I've seen since I've been visiting Scottsdale's site in two or three weeks.

Spot at 30, a possibility, would mean a stacker at $340 maybe. And a hand-poured at $350 maybe. No rush here. My dry powder is ready, but limited. Smart shopping is key.

The 10-oz Engelhard bar is going for $396 (credit card), another recent low. ASE (delayed delivery to June 17) is going for 41.32 (credit card). Premium remains high, in the $8 range, for ASEs.

I'm glad I got a teeny bit of physical gold on Friday. Gold is the one place that was geared for a bit of stability, and I'm leaning more that direction with Asia hungry for more physical and the aforementioned gold futures opening up in less than 48 hours on the Hang Seng.

I never cared much for gold or PMs in general until this year, but demand is demand and supply is limited. Same with Crude Oil, though it was down 2.6% today. Can Obama beat the Crudesters down lower? Hard to say ... if Israel does attack Iraq at some point, I don't think the US would get heavily involved. An Israeli win would be bullish for the US economy via lower crude price (theoretically), but any US involvement would rewrite the script completely and shit could hit the fan.

Global Village, indeed.

Update 10:30 am (Hawaii) I played ZSL late in the session, in at 21.39, out at 21.46. Unwilling to let it slide afterhours. It dipped to 21.30, but is now at 21.60. Afterhours is always a tricky alley to navigate, neanderthals looking to stab you in the eye with infected needles and shit. Get through that, you can make a mint. Spot Silver now at 33.50. 33 could be next, then 32 ... 31 ... 30 ... and boing-o!

Some hideous declines in silver plays or, depending on your point of view, awesomely cool buying opportunities. (After you, of course, after you.) AGQ at 158.06, near the LOD. EXK 8.31, -7.25%. (I  don't remember the last time Endeavour was this cheap.) SLV at 32.75 (-4.8%). UCO at 45.62 (-4.6%). AG 17.20 (-4.4%). PSLV 15.58 (-2.9%). XG 9.34, -2.4%. SIL 23.22 (-1.5%). SLW 33.71 (-1.1%).

Top gainers on my Metals List: ZSL, SCO, TWM, GRS, TRE, NGD, GG, EGO, NUGT ... mainly gold plays. Congrats to you gold bugs. I'm coming around, as I was bound to in time. I'm too skeptical of all things not to.

Update 2:52 pm (Hawaii) Spot Silver bounced off 33.50 and is at 33.92 with Sydney and Hong Kong open now. I've been reading and watch videos about the market, about physical prices and it's interesting to compare prices and opinions. Apmex is clearly not the only dealer to charge a massive premium on fractional silver bullion. Doesn't make me want to go and buy a bunch of their coins, though. Still doesn't make enough sense to me, spending more than $6 on a 1/10th oz silver fractional that is actually worth 3.39 at Spot. With Apmex's emphasis on these overpriced fractionals, maybe this is a sign that the physical market has peaked, i.e. JUMPED THE SHARK. I hope not. 

Worst-case scenario: Spot drifts lower until it hits 30, then straight to 27, then back to 19, where this massive momo run began. It would be ugly, but physical at 19 would be a treat. 

About fractional coins again: if that many people are convinced that dollars and common US mint coins are going to be useless in the event of a global currency collapse, why not use divisible coins like the one at QSB? It can be chiseled into quarter-coins, if desired. The whole coin itself goes for just $37+ on the site, or $3.22 over Spot. None of this wicked 40-50% premium that Apmex charges. 

Mike Maloney in 2010 on the unlikelihood of government confiscation

Goldenfinger

4:12 am (Hawaii) Spot Silver opened strong in premarket (49) but has fumbled away those early gains. I'm out of silver, but watching. I like AGQ, though it truly moves like an athlete on steroids and coke. 20-cent moves in an instant, but generally up, now at 375. It was 372 when I started typing this paragraph. The MACD was changing course in a positive direction when I decided to just watch and get acclimated to the pulse of this beast.

Gold is rising above the 1540 threshold that Sir Turd wrote about recently. GLD, my little stocking of fun, is now at 150.50.

The market is generally okay. 51% of my watch list is green. AAPL is in the green, up 1.1%, but many of the miners are treading water or in the red.

I'll keep watching the PMs. Obviously, the movement in AGQ makes it more conducive to daytrading, but once it reverses field to the downside, there's no catching up. Locking in small, quick profits is key. Think Franco Harris or Larry Csonka, churning out 3 or 4 yards at a time, not trying to break it 80 yards in one play. That's right, Csonka and gold in the same sentence. Hey, those 1972 Dolphins were perfect, you know.

Update 4:21 am (Hawaii) What's interesting here is precisely what I've been reading about gold's action. While silver (AGQ, SLV) will gyrate up and down dramatically, gold tends to move more slowly, and lately, when it goes up, it stays there without the big pullbacks. That's what GLD is doing right now. Went from 149.80 to 150.30, then to 150.50. And now 150.58. Nice. Basically a staircase.

AGQ and SLV have basically identical charts. I like AGQ a little better, but there are certainly dangers there with anything that can drop 10-15 bucks in a split second. 

Update 4:40 am (Hawaii) Took a quick trade in AGQ and got smited. In at 373.44, out at 369.44 for a small loss. There was a pause, a strangely quiet few moments where AGQ was at 373+, and just as I bought, down it went. The MACD is now solidly below 0.0 and spiraling below 369 now. Lesson learned. 

My small GLD position remains positive with Spot Gold at 1541.90. It's not much of a (paper) profit so far, but it's as steady as AGQ is wild. (Now 366.86.)

Update 5:57 am (Hawaii) Can't say I'm a big fan of CNBC, even as it is the one channel that remains on here, muted 99% of the time. No question that today and in recent days, the swelling momentum against silver has been massive. Twice already this morning, traders, fund managers, whoever have been on air calling it a bubble. Maybe this is CNBC's "public duty," an attempt to protect mom-and-pop traders from sinking their life savings into a disaster waiting to happen. It would be admirable if only CNBC had its facts right. When a bimbo anchor spouts out crap off the teleprompter like, "There's no shortage of silver," I have to wonder if she's as dumb as she looks. Seriously. 

I wish that every single time an anchor or reporter or guest talking head claimed this, they'd also confirm numbers from Comex/JP Morgan and simply do their jobs as "journalists." But nobody on CNBC is willing to deal with that issue. They have to get paid, they have to keep the big wigs happy, and they don't want to piss off the wrong people. Unfortunately, their interpretation of the "wrong people" is turning upside down and they just don't realize it. The general public wants to know what is in those vaults. Why doesn't CNBC want to explore this, too? Every time the marijuana special airs, it's another triumph for sticky journalism and another defeat for CNBC as a true financial journalism entity. So much focus on "greed" and safe topics like Facebook, but not a trace of investigation of the vaults and the invisible silver that is naked shorted by JPM. 

So be it. I have no position in silver. But it's certainly annoying to face the baloney. Thank God for the mute button. 

Update 6:08 am (Hawaii) Gold exploding in the past several minutes. NGD went from 10.98 to 11.04, flatlined, then erupted to 11.17. I'd about given up on scouting it after it dropped below 11, but heavy buying ensued at noon Eastern. China effect in play? 

Spot Gold at 1546.80, all-time high. A 19-cent swing for NGD. Amazing. 

Boing boing!

Update 6:43 am (Hawaii) Spot Gold hit (it appears) 1550 and has pulled back a bit to 1548+. Nice. I'm watching NGD (11.20), UGL (ultra 2x), GDX (gold miners). There's also NUGT (miners bull 2x) and lot more, but I'm leaning toward liquidity. 

Update 6:56 am (Hawaii) Looking for NGD at 11.12 (retrace level of 38.2% from its low/10.98 to high 11.21). Not expecting it. Came down to 11.14, now 11.16 again. Might try a stink bid next time it drops. That selloff to 10.98 before the run was pretty surprising. 

Update 7:42 am (Hawaii) Spot Gold now 1558+. Yes, the economy is in dire straits, and yes, it's tough to see a great company like Apple struggle to get back to its high on the market. But in the world of precious metals, there's something assuring about gold reaching these kinds of highs. Looking at a new watch list of PMs and a few currencies, I'm in awe of some gold miners and ETFs. DGP is up 2.8% and still climbing. XG is up 2.2%, but the lack of volume spooks me. NUGT, a 2x gold miner ETF, is up 3%. NGD is consolidating intraday at 11.21. It has room to run to 11.30. 

Both NGD and EXK, at least in my mind, are brothers from a different mother. Small gold, small silver that have run hugely in the past several months. A breakdown would be scary. But for now, they're both appetizing. 

I refuse to buy on the way up. I want to buy on a pullback, which may not come today. 

Okay, Spot Gold now 1559+. Professor Turd was 100% correct on this call. 

I like NGD more than XG, but in this gold rush, DGP makes more sense after a pullback. It broke out at 44 on April 5, now at 50.46. Much more movement (2x ETF). Looking for DGP at 49.99. 

Wish list

DGP 49.99 (currently 50.45)

SLV 45 (currently 47.31)

AGQ 350 (currently 366.03)

Planning to hold that small position in GLD for awhile. 

XG was at 9.30 when Bernankepalooza began on Wednesday, even with this 2% gain today, it is only at 9.66. Compelling. The company is rather transparent (re: video on YouTube). 

Update 7:57 am (Hawaii) A double bull gold ETF, DGP, is up 2.6%. GLD is up 1.4%. Either DGP is undervalued or GLD is over. 

Update 8:18 am (Hawaii) Liked the MACD bounce possibility in DGP, so I entered at 50.63. It has already blasted through 50 and the possibility of a gold selloff/profit-taking is there, but it's a calculated risk, as always. Spot Gold now at 1562.70. 

Update 8:38 am (Hawaii) Spot Gold breaking out to 1569+, taking DGP up to a 51.13 HOD. But it still appears DGP is slightly "trailing" GLD. DGP was up 4.1% to GLD's 2.1%. If this holds much longer, I'll chalk it up to a conversion glitch. 

Update 8:53 am (Hawaii) I know Spot Gold is not done going up. DGP is flatlining at 50.89 and I've already lost half of the gains in this position (albeit just one hour long). But a trade is a tarde. 

Spoke too late. DGP now at 50.86 and bidding down to 50.83. Long term, I doubt China quits buying gold and silver. For now, though, might be time to get out of DGP. 

Update 9:12 am (Hawaii) Out of DGP at 50.76 (most at 50.77, then the last at 50.70). This was a little unnerving. I wasn't comfortable while DGP sat in the 50.60s, but it shot up to the 50.80s, then leveled off before going above 51 for 2-3 minutes. I didn't pull the trigger there because of greed? Fear of losing on a bigger gain? It wouldn't have been a big profit, but it would've been nice for a 1-hour trade. But I waited and waited and sure enough, DGP dropped below 51, below 50.90 ... and below 50.80. After opening at 49.15, the selloff had to come sometime. So, out of a potential 50¢ profit, I made 13¢. That's really bad. The profit was negligible. Should be easy enough to use a stop-loss order. Question is why I have trouble opening a gift-wrapped profit. 

I like the price action in DGP. Still holding a small position in GLD. If we get a dip before the bell or afterhours, I may add. 

Update 9:44 am (Hawaii) Sometimes it's best to just keep it simple as possible. A 4th grade kid could see I had a decent profit out of a really late trade. In and out. Over. Instead, I hang around too often, too long in some trades. GLD is good to hold, no doubt, but a double bull like DGP has to be ridden like a wild bronco: briefly and carefully. 

A closer look at DGP shows that I bought in on the fifth up leg of the day. It had FIVE legs up without declining. In hindsight, I'm lucky it wasn't worse. Must learn to recognize legs. They don't go on forever. 

Update 10:30 am (Hawaii) I wanted AGQ at 350 and I might get my wish. Doesn't mean I'm buying. Currently 353.70 after hours, low of the day. SLV is at 46.56 and slipping. Still prefer that at 45, but with all the negative press (catching up to the blogosphere), SLV's best days are probably limited. 

Still like DGP on a pullback. A near-term retrace from today's high (51.13 to recent resistance-turned-support at 47.33) would be at 49.68, or a 38.2% Fibonacci level. That's my interpretation of a bullish stock/ETF in a bullish sector. 

Update 10:46 am (Hawaii) Brother Turd's take on today's CME shenanigans, Spot Gold's explosion and more. Thanks to his reasoning and experience, a lot of us have made money this week. My understanding of precious metals was nada zilcho until the past few months, reading his words of wisdom along with other bloggers and video bloggers. I left a decently stupid sum of money on the table by not exiting trades quickly enough, but that's my own problem. For his gracious sharing of knowledge, I thank the Turd!