Friday, July 29, 2011

Weekend cinema & library (updated Sun 7 pm HST)

11:13 am (Hawaii) The House is voting soon. Supposedly. It barely matters. There is no long-term solution coming out of Congress this weekend. That makes all other "progress" moot. I'll look to trade around the momentum swings. Or not.

Update 11:57 pm (Hawaii) Senate shot it down in an instant. No surprise there. Only question is whether this is Greek or kabuki theater. Sheesh . . .

Update Saturday 8:58 am (Hawaii) Solid blog by Quint Tatro among today's new links.

Bloomberg: Ron Paul interview (July 29)
RT: Gerald Celente: 'Deal or no deal, the debt still exists' (July 29)
CNBC: Uncle Sam's yard sale (July 29)
CNBC: Trump's take on the debt (July 29)
Sean Brodrick: A safe port in a stormy stock market (July 26)

(new) Bill Still: The bad numbers behind debt ceiling debate (July 31)
(new) SGTbull07: Bob Chapman, part 2: Oslo false flag? (July 31)
(new) GuildF40: Metals getting spanked (July 31)
(new) MoneyBags73: With 2 days to default don't lose sight... (July 31)
george4vlogging: Too much food, no nutrition in America (July 30)
ScrapGoldBusiness: End the Fed (July 29)
bigdad06: Volatility x1000! (July 29)
Jim Comiskey: Daily market insights - Metals (July 29)
Bill Still: Debt limit debate, part 3 (July 29)
silverfuturist: Gold all-time high $1633.80! (July 29)
silverfuturist: Yahoo Finance pumps silver/gold??? (July 29)
Al Korelin: Replies to listeners' comments (July 29)
endlessmountain: The Silver Log (July 29)
manoftruth: Debt ceiling, default and love (July 29)
Larry Edelson: The abysmal dollar (July 28)
> "Gold could get up to 1650, 1700, but waiting for low-risk buying opportunity. Downside in silver is not complete. We will see 30, 28 dollars, possibly lower. I do not recommend anybody be invested in silver."
Bill Still: Debt ceiling debate, part 2 (July 25)
Bill Still: US debt limit, part 1 (July 24)
Niall Ferguson: The Ascent (and Descent) of Money (2010)

King World News: Weekly metals wrap (July 30)
King World News: Jim Rickards (July 30)
King World News: Michael Pento (July 30)
Money Radio 1510: History of the Debt Ceiling (July 29)
Bill Tatro: It's All About Money (July 29)
Money Radio 1510: Business for Breakfast, hour 1 (July 29)
Money Radio 1510: Business for Breakfast, hour 2 (July 29)
Wall St. for Main St.: Mo Dawoud, Jason Burack (July 29)
Jim Puplava: Eric Sprott interview (July 27)
> 26-minute segment

(new) Wall Street Journal: Live blog: US debt battle (July 30)
TheStreet: Economy unravels amid debt-ceiling circus (July 30)
> House rejects Sen. Reid's bill 246-173
(new) The Hill: Moody's: Neither debt plan protects the nation's AAA rating (July 29)
Wall Street Journal: House to vote on amended deficit plan (July 29)
Wall Street Journal: Treasury, Fed officials to meet with bankers (July 29)
Reuters: Growth anemic, debt row poses recession risk (July 29)
> Output increased at a 1.3% annual pace.
> Jack Balkin: "The Treasury (could) create two $1 trillion coins, deposit them in the Federal Reserve and write checks on the proceeds."
Wall Street Journal: Long-term unemployment, by state (July 21)
Toledo Blade: Don't hoard your silver, president says of coins (July 23 1965)

(new) SilverGoldSilver: Here we go again - IB raises silver margins (July 31)
(new) Patrick Chovanec: Will China dump US debt? (July 31)
Turd Ferguson: (am) Another stair higher (July 29)
Brandon Smith: The essential rules of tyranny (July 29)
Jim Quinn: This country defaulted long ago (July 29)
The Silver Log: 07.29.2011 (July 29)
Anthony Gregory: Why capitalism is worth defending (July 29)
> Back in WNR prior to earnings
Le Fly: A deal is coming (July 29)
Scott Blier: A balanced budget amendment? (July 29)
> "The outcome could prove to be very market-unfriendly, regardless of the outcome. SPX 1220 is not that far away."
chessNwine: Observation (July 29)
chessNwine: Comparing the carnage (July 29)
Thomas Carreno: Sell the rumor and buy the news (July 29)
George Maniere: Stay positioned in gold, silver ETFs (July 29)
Jesse's Cafe Americain: Gold daily, silver weekly charts - Enjoy the show (July 29)
King World News: Hathaway interview (July 29)
(new) Arun Gupta: The 6 biggest lies about the US debt (July 28)
Ferdinand Ferfal: Thoughts on urban survival (2005)
> Classic, sometimes painful reading of what Ferfal and millions suffered for years in Argentina after the economic crash of 2001.

Blog reader commentary
Doc J: On debt & deficits (July 29)
beinki: beinki need break too (July 29)
latcho: De Nederlandse Bank: 'lock'm in' (July 29)
thecoloredsky: tankerfirstofficer (July 27)

Metal bling
(new) drutter: Low-light silver porn including NZ silver fern (July 31) (forum): America The Beautiful 5-oz (July 12)

What else will they discuss?

9:54 am (Hawaii) SGS pointed out that the heads of fed are being called in for a meeting with their pimps (banksters) tonight. Can't say it's an "emergency" meeting considering all the hoopla with the unofficially bankrupt state of our state. With a few minutes left before the closing bell, I might be better served to acquire some "protection" against a debt ceiling decision (compromise, agreement, delay, etc) by re-opening a ZSL position. Or maybe some FAS if the market erupts on that "positive" news. Or some FAZ if I really believe a decision won't come until Monday at the earliest. Heck, they can't even get all this voting done by the House, Senate, etc. (including actual voting on a bill) by Tuesday.

Looks more and more like Obama will pull an Executive Order to get this done before shit hits the fan. He's taken a lot of crap lately, but in reality, the Repubs won't even listen to him. So he's stepped back, nothing really concrete has occurred, and after another day or two of this foolishness, he'll put a stop-gap measure in by EO. That will appease the market for a few weeks, days or hours.

Metals will sell off. Or will they? Too much thinking, too much analysis can cause paralysis. I'm holding DGP and XG, as well as GSVC.

Update 10:00 am (Hawaii) I re-opened a small position in ZSL (13.46). Added a bit of GSVC at 16.00.

ZSL, for me, is a stabilizer. I'm long physical silver with no paper silver (for now). It is going to end up at 50 and higher soon enough. But it will sell off with any significant progress by Congress and the White House this weekend. So, once again, when silver declines, I'll make a little profit off ZSL and use those proceeds to buy more physical silver. Yes, I like shiny metal that can gain in value by just being nothing more than itself. In our current environment, there are almost no scenarios that send gold and silver lower. The Fed and Treasury are in no position to stop printing dollars.

As for GSVC, I surmised a few weeks back during its second liftoff (to near 20) that it could pull back 50% on its gains to 15.55. I lost patience, chased at 19+, bought more at 17+, both with very small amounts. I missed today's early drop to 15.00. (Yes, I sleep through the early morning sometimes.) I added a few more shares at the close today at 16.00. Not quite the perfect catch, but I'm not swinging for home runs either. Long term, GSVC grows as Facebook monetizes to the nth degree and eventually goes public. Even if we have catastrophe this weekend and next week and the market crashes, I'm not selling GSVC because my position is small enough to absorb temporary paper losses without significant pain. I'd be happy to add in the 15s, 13s, even 10s.

Note: Maria looks great with the wind (outdoor) blowing through her hair.

Indices all in the red at the close. DJ -96.87 to 12,143.24 (-0.8%). Nas -9.87 to 2,756.38 (-0.36%). S&P -8.39 to 1,292.28 (-0.65%).

I would not be shocked by a crash in the coming week. I don't expect one, but even if the mercenaries in Washington get something together to avoid disaster, I tend to agree with Scott Blier that there is the possibility of a selloff on the news to come. I'd put that at 15-20%, so I'm not overly concerned. Aware, not worried.

Interesting that the miners stayed negative today while XG closed near its high (12.83, +0.25, +2% after hours). Spot Gold's major move today above 1625 — as forecasted by Brother Turd Ferguson — pushed DGP up 1.2% to 54.24 (after hours).

I know some traders are interested in jumping back on the AGQ express, and it's tempting. But it isn't showing the kind of action that it would if the engines were warming up and the tank was fueled up. After opening today at 218, it is now 212.80. Again, there are a lot of buyers waiting on the sideline, anticipating a selloff with a catalyst in Washington. But I have to wonder if this lack of buying will lead to a lack of selling in silver come Monday or Tuesday.

Once the market takes off, silver bugs will wonder when to re-enter the paper trade. And once the market melt-up slows, the reality of a countdown to a REAL debt crisis meltdown will ensue. And that's when gold will take off even higher, and silver will be gobbled up by thirsty, hungry citizens.

On Sunday, five days ago, I waited at my computer as the Asian market was about ready to open. Buy silver here? Or wait for a selloff? Gold? I bought more physical silver and held off on gold. Gold has gone from 1600 to 1626 (at this moment). Silver has gone from 40.17 to 39.87. Buying phsyical silver was not a bad decision. I like the concept of averaging in, though I'm not against enormous grabs. I had to deal with the possibilities in my head. I did what was best in my analysis.

Sure, I could have bought more gold on Sunday, and I could add more this weekend. But it is clearly toppy and a selloff would hit gold harder than silver at this point. As gurus like Turd have pointed out, there is far less speculation in silver now — a direct result of the five margin requirement hikes by the CME mafia — and the byproduct is less volatility than before. The $4-5 swings are nonexistent now.

Chance of buying more physical silver this weekend: Strong (80%)
Chance of buying more paper silver (bull) today (after hours): Weak (5%)
Chance of buying more paper silver (bear) today (after hours): Weak (20%) (already bought some ZSL today)

Chance of buying more physical gold this weekend: Fair (60%)
Chance of buying more paper gold (bull) today (after hours): Moderate (20%)
Chance of buying more paper gold (bear) today (after hours): Moderate (10%)
Chance of selling paper gold (bull) today (after hours): Weak (5%)

At a time when it makes sense to be 100% cash, which I have been for most of this year, I am 40% in paper. I'm 45% cash and 15% physical.

I expect spot prices to decrease in the coming week, possibly by Monday. I will be prepared to add more physical silver and sell my small ZSL position at that point. If gold sells off, I'll be ready to add more physical. I won't add more XG (no more miners). In a short-term meltup, I like AAPL and BIDU. Small-float babies like GSVC might become toys for daytraders again.

Near term, the sanest approach is limited paper and maximum cash. Long term, cash is not king unless you enjoy watching hungry termites eat your hard-earned dollars for breakfast, lunch and dinner.


Thursday, July 28, 2011

Thursday cinema & library


6:57 pm (Hawaii) While I was a) working through the morning, b) sleeping in the afternoon after being up all night, c) driving across town to stores and a mall ... the gang at Capitol Hill accomplished a whole lot.

A whole lot of nothing. So the market was largely indecisive and there was not a whole lot of action. I saw AAPL move higher and BIDU sell off a bit. I saw silver get clubbed below 40. But generally, it was a lot of sitting on the sidelines for the most part as everyone waited on America's mercenaries to get something done about this debt ceiling crisis.

All I knew as I went about my voyage today is that the talk radio guys weren't happy. Republicans weren't happy. Dems weren't happy. Nobody was happy. I got to the Apple store at Ala Moana and checked in. The vote on the latest bill was delayed. Boehner wasn't going to get his numbers.

The thing is, it doesn't really matter. Deciding what brand of bandage to put on a fatal disease is mind-numbing when they can't decide for days and weeks and months. The real issue is how to completely change course, to slice off the toxins that plague the body of America and move forward in a healthy way. Delaying things just allows those toxins to kill more of the body. Why do we as a country have such a hard, hard time just doing that? We know the ramifications of stalling this out. Or is that just fluffy rhetoric anyway?

More and more, it seems likely that the invasions of Libya and other Middle East/North African energy sources is all about taking what we want. Again. If the little guys don't like it, tough. We've stiffed the world many times before — six defaults, including three in the past century — and left dollar-holders sucking wind, holding the bag.

So my little trek around town has come to a pit stop with dinner at a mall. I'm left to ponder what happens with gold and silver, the dollar and our economy. How will my friends get new jobs? How will America stave off a Depression? Frankly, if I had some land out in the country, I'd be just fine learning how to grow vegetables and raise chickens. I don't need a whole lot to be happy. The elephants and donkeys on the Hill can posture and wheeze all they like. The older I get, the simpler my vision has become.

The more they screw up, the cheaper precious metals get, and the more I will stack. The more I prepare, the less I have to fear. Fresh eggs, anyone?

Journeyman Pictures: Consumed (July 27)
Keiser Report: Ghettoification of America (July 28)
> Extended 25-minute report on gold, silver, etc
CNBC: Bank of Ireland takeover (July 28)
CNBC: A China crisis? (July 28)
CNBC: Fast Money final trade (July 28)
The Young Turks: Extended clip (July 27)

chessNwine: Stock market recap (July 28)
endlessmountain: The Silver Log (July 28)
endlessmountain: Insane, savings, debt ceiling (July 28)
endlessmountain: Confederate inflation (July 28) How banks make so much money (July 27)
bullorbearreport: Metals rally continues! (July 25)

King World News: Robin Griffiths (July 28)


Turd Ferguson: (pm) 1650 and 42 (July 28)
Turd Ferguson: (am) Same old, same old (July 28)

Blog reader commentary

Silver porn

Respect the action

6:26 am (Hawaii) It doesn't matter what I think of the CME mafia or the obvious lack of conviction on the part of paper silver traders today. All I know is spot silver just ripped higher after AGQ hovered at 208-210 for more than an hour. That left my small position in ZSL rising to 13.85, then to 13.49. I got out at 13.51 for a slim profit (24¢). Break out the harmonica, I'm feeling rich!

With the kabuki actors on Capitol Hill going through procedural stuff now, and the public stuff to start in 2 1/2 hours, none of that is exactly bearish for precious metals. I don't expect a meteor shot for gold or silver, either. But the downside for PMs should be over for today, as Brother Turd Ferguson alluded to in his chat room. The only thing that would hurt PMs is a surprise agreement or delay announcement.

The last time I paid this much attention to a pseudo hedge pairing was May of 2009, when the flash crash hit and my AAPL shares got kneecapped. At the same time, my miniscule position in VXX almost kept me at break-even through the chaos. It was something to behold. By the time I got out of VXX, it had lost most of its gains, but AAPL had made up most of its losses, so I was both exhausted and relieved. I was on the road at the time, so that was one crazy early morning in a hotel room.

Right now, XG is showing signs of life, down "only" 2.7% (35¢) after dipping 75¢ earlier. The last big dip, just a week or two ago, took shares to 12.00 intraday. Today's low was 12.35, and it's now at 12.75.

ZSL is back to 12.58, but I'll be an observer from here to the bell. I'll be away from the computer doing some work, and that's probably for the best ... unless a deal is reached in DC and the market takes off without me. Is Scott Blier right? Will the market actually do the opposite of what most of us expect? Will it sell into any news of a debt ceiling deal?

As for rare earths, the big boys were sky high and not playable when SHZ showed some signs of catching up. Ultimately, it lacked staying power and couldn't stay above 3.25 for long. I stayed out and now it's at 3.12, still up nicely (+1%) for the day so far. Chasing is almost always a sure route to pain.

Game on: Rare earths playing tough

3:51 am (Hawaii) ZSL gaining in the past several minutes as gold and silver paper sell off. Note that the indices are now in green territory. XG tanking as it often does, but I'm not selling and I'm not adding more. This small position is more than enough exposure to the wacky miners. DGP's modest gain has dissipated. GSVC was green, but is now red. Not selling, but I'll look to add when it nears 15.55 (50% retrace from pre-second surge that went to almost 20).

SHZ has lifted to 3.34 on the rare-earths run today and yesterday. Strictly a day trade and will fall on its face once AVL, REE and MCP get hit with profit-taking. I saw SHZ at 3.26, saw it come back to 3.23 and wanted it at 3.19 (50% retrace of today's early gain). But it didn't get there and ran higher. Still watching, but this would be a tiny position anyway. Not chasing. I think.

Thursday morning pre-game

1:32 am (Hawaii) Less than half an hour until peon traders (me) can start entering and/or exiting positions. It's rare that I get a whole lot of reading done this time of morning, but with the possibility of a debt ceiling delay or compromise any day, any time, I'm in red-alert mode. Plus, the 16-oz energy drink really works.

I refer you to Le Fly. He is often right. Not always, but often enough to clear the bases and score big when he makes contact with splitters, curveballs and even spitballs. He advised to go long on WNR a few months back. I sided with him, bought at about 17, dumped out at 15. It is now at 21. He held through the muck and crap, knowing the fundamentals of oil refining and this specific company would set him high into big buck gains. He endured the pain. I didn't.

He's very sure about the coming post-debt ceiling "agreement" rally, as are many market watchers. I have no doubt precious metals will sell off on the equities rally. I'll be waiting for entry points when that rally runs out of fuel and metals are ready to bounce. It'll be more about physical than paper at that point. How can it not be? I'm sick of my dollars getting eaten away by inflation and I'll be sicker when hyperinflation kicks in — if I'm still holding fiat currency. I plan not to be in that shithole.


chessNwine: Stock market recap (July 27)


Tony Pallotta: Ominous similarities (July 28)
Le Fly: Manufactured uncertainty (July 28)
Jake Gint: A gentle reminder (July 28)
Le Fly: It's time to man up (July 27)
Le Fly: Chat transcript, Stocktwits (July 27)
> "Any deal ... will be met with a turbulent sell the news reaction that most everyone is waiting to buy. So expect the unexpected, like a failed rally followed by a trip to the bottom of the trading range with a failed bounce and then a breakdown. My work still shows that we will give back at least half of the gains from QEII, or a test of the low SPX 1200 area."

Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Sure, there are no coincidences

8:13 pm (Hawaii) I believe that. Maybe there are accidents and what not. But really, is this a coincidence that Spot Silver is virtually duplicating its movement tonight. Look at how tonight's price action compares to that on Monday at the exact same time. For those of you who truly believe spot price in silver and gold are completely off the chains, not handcuffed by the CME mafia at all ... do you think tonight's gold price is coincidentally mirroring Monday's action, too?

Whatever the case, I'm fairly prepared. If price rises, my gold positions gain modestly and I'll wait for another time to acquire more physical. If silver rises, I junk my new, small ZSL position and wait for another time to acquire more physical.

If price drops drastically in gold, I hold my positions and wait for a good time to get more physical. If silver price drops drastically, I wait it out and see if gets below 40, 35, even 32. If I were greedy, I'd buy paper to the hilt and gamble. But I prefer physical in this wacked out environment. You guys can do the casino thing just fine. Oh, and I'll probably hold ZSL until after the post-debt ceiling "agreement" melt-up (in stocks) and selloff (in precious metals) is done.

photo: Kim Yu-Na, Samsung

Wednesday cinema & library (updated 10 pm HST)

12:13 pm (Hawaii) Earlier in the week, I guessed that an agreement on the debt ceiling would come early as Wednesday, but could be as slow to arrive as Monday (the day before deadline). But the compromise (or postponement of such) will arrive. That gives me more reason to hold this small position in ZSL. The PM selloff is coming. When it bottoms, hopefully I'll recognize it, sell ZSL and buy as much physical metal as possible. Maybe add to my DGP position, maybe re-open another position in AGQ. The risk in buying more miner stock, though, is too high for my taste, so no more XG or EXK.

(new) The Young Turks: Extended clip 7/26 (July 27)
RT: Jim Rogers (July 27)
Keiser Report: Golden salute to global breakdown (July 27)
> Go to 6:30 on the video

Al Korelin: James Turk interview (July 27)
The Real News: Hell No - Your right to dissent (July 27)
stellaconcepts: Property, silver, The Wolf (July 27)
endlessmountain: The Silver Log - Cotton, gold and silver (July 27)
BrotherJohnF: Silver update - Weekend at Bernie's (July 27)
endlessmountain: Re: BrotherJohnF Weekend at Bernie's (July 27)
ASilversVoice: Canadians invade America (July 27)
Jeff the Canuck: Cooking at Wal-Mart - Living in your van (July 26)
(new) Chris Martenson: David Morgan interview (July 20)
(new) Royal Metals Group: Arizona gold and silver report (June 15)
(new) David Morgan: What is the real value of silver? (Feb 18)
> 23-minute presentation
(new) Jim Puplava: Sold silver, bought palladium, platinum (Feb 12)
(new) Royal Metals Group: Is your pension IRA safe? Insider talks about bond meltdown (Dec 25 2010)

(new) King World News: Louis Yamada (July 28)
King World News: Marc Faber (July 26)

Anthony Mirhaydari: End of the road for gold? (July 27)

Turd Ferguson: Site improvements (July 27)
Vedran Vuk/Jeff Clark: Gold noise growing louder (July 27)
Michael Robinson: Rare earths and the fall of America (July 27)
Michael Sankowski: The best 'currency' for a new America (July 27)
Golden Truth: Google stock to $1500? (July 27)
Harvey Organ: Vintage gold and silver raid (July 27)
Automatic Earth: Austerity is coming to the USA (July 26)
Financial Market News: We're already at war with Iran (July 25)

Blog reader commentary
eyeswideopen: All Physical (July 23)

Metal porn
(new) silverpornUK: Fresh amateur's first time (July 26)
(new) richardbask4321: silver porn (July 14)
(new) ctfam: Silver Porn. Enjoy! (May 3)
(new) MrTravelmyway: A little silver porn collection (Mar 13)

Back on the Z train

10:00 am (Hawaii) It's been some time since I had a position in ZSL. Opened a tiny position before the closing bell. If the CME mafia raids silver and takes it below 40, to 38, 35, 32 or below, fine. I'll turn my ZSL profit into physical silver. If silver rallies, I cut ZSL off my line quickly. It won't make or break my roll, but it'll add up should the slide turn into a waterfall descent.

FAZ is the other bear play I like, but I passed up opportunities at 44/45. Just too many tricksters in the game. Long term, the banks are fucked, but I hesitate because those banksters have more pull than any puppeteers in the scheme of things. 44 would've been a calculated risk with upside. At 48, FAZ could go back to 50 or 52, but not much higher before the bank stocks rally on a debt ceiling agreement. Then it might be time to ride a little bit of FAS, though my preference would be to get a first-class seat on Air AAPL or the BIDU express.

photo: Kim Yu-Na,


9:04 am (Hawaii) Of all the scenarios I envisioned for this week, this was not one of them. Fear has cast its shadow over the market. The result is a pullout of cash in stocks, commodities ... but the dollar is up 0.9% (74.27). Treasuries as a safe haven? My guess is it's a contrary play by traders and this fractional up move is temporary.

Gold is teetering at 1614 after punching up to 1628.80 early in the session. (I slept right through it all like a baby. Weather in Honolulu has been wintery lately.) Silver rose to 41.46 before getting clubbed in the back of the head with gold. Spot is now 40.28. It's the first time in awhile since we've seen stocks and PMs decline together.

Volume has been a mixed bag. Breadth? My Regular watch list is 15% green, 85% red. Bearish tells lead: TVIX (+10.4%), TZA (+8.3%), FAZ (+6%), VXX (+5.4%), EDZ (+5.2%), QID (+4.7%). AMZN is up 3.6%, but down from yesterday's afterhours high above 228. LVS, PSN, NFLX also up in an ocean of red. AAPL finally topped yesterday and is down more than 10 bucks today, -2.6% to 392.80. No shock. Patience and conviction have worked for AAPL traders for a long time now. It was at 376 when the stock was halted for the earnings report last week. A healthy pullback to 388-390 was reasonable to expect, and that's what it had this week before the run above 400. Trading range until the next catalyst, probably iPhone 5.

BIDU is down 2.2% to 160.66 after a recent high around 167. Another post-earnings pullback.

The Metals list is almost as red. 18% green, 80% red, 2% neutral. DUST, SCO, FSG, ZSL, UUP, DZZ, DGZ are up, all bear plays. Between FAZ and DSL, I could've anticipated FAZ after hearing about bad news for Euro banks before the opening bell. My Debt Spiral list — all banks — is 8% green and 85% red. That 8% is FAZ. Everything else (banks) are at least 1.6% down.

My small positions are red. XG is at the bottom of the Metals list, down 8% to 13.01 with the usual huge momentum swing on days like this. I'll wait until after the debt ceiling agreement to consider adding more. Probably won't. I don't want increased exposure to miners.

DGP is down 0.3% to 53.61. GSVC is down 2.1% to 16.63. A month or so ago, on the stock's second major surge, I'd hoped for a pullback to 15.55. It never came on the way to the high 19s. Now, 15.55 seems very possible. A move below 16 and I'm watching carefully for more shares on a tiny position.

However long the artificial high lasts after the debt ceiling is raised (or a decision is postponed), that will be fun times for traders. But eventually, it'll come to a halt, a crash into an unyielding wall. The wall always wins. Only the best will survive. That's why I'm continuing add physical metal. The lower they bury gold and silver, the better to stack.

Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Tuesday cinema & library (midnight update)

1:41 pm (Hawaii) I admit it. Unless I'm physically away from a computer, there's no way I can sit and not pay attention to spot prices of gold (currently 1619) and silver (40.81). Almost as bad: I check many times a day the price of physical metal I've bought. I know it takes so little to knock down the price of spot and an American Silver Eagle, but it's addicting to look for the price.

I also know that if the CME mafia were to completely decapitate gold and silver, I'd be buying at bargain levels without regret. So would a lot of people. So would a lot of investors, hedge funds, billionaires and central banks. With the CME mafia protecting 41 in silver and 1625 in gold, price could scale down below 39 and 1575 overnight. Or in minutes. I'm prepared for possibilities.

Update 3:45 pm (Hawaii) By far, the best read of the day, perhaps the week and month, is from Silver Shield. His long piece on China, the Hong Kong Metals Exchange (now trading silver futures), the En+ Group and the Rothschilds is a fascinating read, even for doubters.

CNBC: Soros: China must be brought into the New World Order (Nov 8 2009)
CNBC: Evelyn De Rothschild long gold (Sept 20 2009)

(new) cfinl72: Charles Goyette (July 27)
(new) TheYoungTurks: Polls: President Obama's base eroding (July 26)
Keiser Report: Mass Psychosis (July 26)
morganslv: Silver @ $40.53 (July 26)
silverfuturist: Silver up, the bond trade of the year (July 26)
TheLordHumungus: The 4 best items to stockpile (July 25)
Gold Resource Corp.: Gold: Independent money (July 21)
TheYoungTurks: Cenk leaves MSNBC (inside story) (July 20)
> He reveals how fucked up TV mainstream media really is when it comes to truth-telling.


Guardian: Soros to close hedge fund (July 26)

(new) SilverGoldSilver: The Silver Man Cometh (July 26)
(new) Golden Truth: Housing just gets worse (July 26)
Chris Ciovacco: Commodities share indecisiveness with other markets (July 26)
Przemyslaw Radomski: Is this a true breakout or are we in for a correction? (July 26)
> "For now, at least a short-term correction appears likely."
David Zeller: Brace for the worst as debt ceiling crisis deadline nears (July 26)
Martin Hutchinson: If you want to flee the US dollar, here are 4 places to hide (July 26)
Kerri Shannon: Don't miss the chance to profit from silver price rebound (July 26)
Jesse's Cafe Americain: Option expiry fizzle? (July 26)
King World News: Turk: Asian buying to fuel massive short squeeze in gold (July 26)
King World News: Massive shortage of available physical gold and silver (July 26)
Le Fly: The corporate jet guys win again (July 26)
Jake Gint: I should stay on vacation (July 26)
> "I hope you held onto your DGP, RGLD, SLW and ANV."
Jake Gint: Cash is golden (July 26)
Le Fly: Reducing exposure to take on risk (July 26)
> "I have no intentions to sell GSVC. If the stock dropped to $12, I'd triple my position."
chessNwine: Do you dare to rare? (July 26)
chessNwine: Challenging your patience (July 26)
William Norman Grigg: The missing lesson from Norway: Never trust a man in uniform (July 26)
Bill Bonner: Political paralysis brought on by govt spending (July 26)
Charles Kadlec: Is gold money? (July 26)
Frederick Sheehan: Bankruptcy: From Greece to Rhode Island (July 25)
Bill Bonner: In defense of the empire (July 25)
Le Fly: The Republicans are right (July 25)
Scott Blier: I'm gonna tell you how it's gonna be, bizarro version (July 24)
Don't Tread on Me: 'I get it now' (Mar 3)

Blog reader commentary

Metal Porn

They're taking turns flippin' the bird

9:20 am (Hawaii) So the White House formally flips another middle finger toward the GOP, and the GOP will do likewise within a few minutes or hours. Whatever. Fucking kabuki theater. On the other hand, I had a chance to re-enter AGQ at 223.39 as it began to rise on the news and CNBC stuffing the airwaves with this "breaking news." I decided not to enter the buy order and AGQ is now at 224.35. An agreement of sorts will come sooner or later. I prognosticated that it will come as soon as Wednesday and as late as Monday. But I doubt they go all the way to the deadline (Tuesday) on this. When it happens, silver and gold plays pull back, no question.

Interesting to see that the US Mint increased the price of its half-oz First Spouse gold coins from $929 to $954. I was shocked and a little pissed to see this. The premium had already been substantial. I passed on my plan to pick up a coin or two recently in hopes that the premium would be reduced as spot gold price declined. But with the price rising, the mint followed in accord. The next coin in the America The Beautiful series goes on sale Thursday: Mt. Hood. This year, the 5-oz coins have been going for $279. I won't be surprised when the price gets jacked up to $299 or something like that.

The American Silver Eagle proof is still "only" $59.95. I may pounce on that if I want to spoil myself again rather than pay up for the First Spouse coins. The key for the mint, imho, is that they limit the mintage on these issues, so they can do whatever they like. And there's nothing quite like owning a govt-issued coin for authenticity, even though I doubt I'll ever sell my proofs and I doubt I'd ever sell a First Spouse if I owned one. These aren't just bullion. They're fun to have and pass on to the next generation.

AAPL has stayed well above 400 in the 403 area today despite a flat market. BIDU has hung on to its huge gains from yesterday's earnings report. 66% of my Metals list is green, but only a small group has a gain of at least 1.5% today. The leaders have been rare earths (REE +8.1%, MCP +6.9%, AVL +7.2%) and palladium (PALL +3.3%).

GPL (-2.8%), ZSL (-2.6%), AG (-1.1%) among the bottom dwellers. Most are fractionally up or down.

My Regular watch list is 62% green, 37% red. US Steel (X) is down 8.7%, GNK down 6.8% and NFLX down 5.1%. CSTR down 4.2%. WFT (+9.5%), OWW (+8%), MCP, BIDU (+5.2%) and CHGS (+4.7%) lead the list.

It's interesting that AAPL keeps marching higher despite the shenanigans on Capitol Hill. What happens when the two sides come to an agreement? Will AAPL explode again? My guess is that the run is somewhat done for now and AAPL will yield to small and mid caps for that run. In other words, AAPL is a hold. A buy here would be low risk. Maybe it runs. That might be worth the buy.

BIDU? At 164+, it's down from its high of 167 yesterday after the earnings report was released. It's one of those stocks I should never have sold, knowing how Big Brother hates to share with those Westerners (Google). Think the last time I traded BIDU, it was around 70 after the split a year or two ago. Knowing it's a no-brainer and actually holding a position are two different things.

You could put 1 and 1 together and ride AAPL's growth in China along side BIDU's growth as China's de facto search engine. Life would be fairly simple that way. Maybe I do that, keep stacking physical metal, XG, DGP and perhaps AGQ and/or EXK, and forget about it for a few years. I'll definitely wait for the politicians to get that agreement done before stacking more metal. I want those discount prices.

(Some discounts may come if the CME mafia strikes tonight or early tomorrow before the open, per warning from Brother Turd Ferguson.)

Even if this turns into a plan of action, I still want a lot of dry powder. Will there be a market crash this year? I wouldn't bet against it. I want to be ready with at least 1/3 in metal, 1/3 in cash. If my timing is right, I'll empty out of all paper (stocks) and get more metal before a crash. I don't assume I'll time that correctly, though. Best to be as prepared as possible and it might be good enough.

Monday, July 25, 2011

Monday cinema & library (updated)

TheStreet: They just don't get Apple (July 25)
CNBC: Fast Money final trade (July 25)
CNBC: Netflix falls 8% (July 25)
CNBC: Baidu reports earnings (July 25)

(new) ukipmedia: Nigel Farage, Lord Liddel (July 25)
> Farage is blunt and effective, but it's the caller (Joyce) to this morning radio show who sticks it to the Euro apologists so, so well.
SilverGoldSilver: SLV manipulation caught on video, part 2 (July 25)
Bill Still: Debt ceiling debate (July 25)
stellaconcepts: Stella does the USA (July 25)
cleburne61: The Life of a Silver Hitman (July 23)


Chicago Fed: National Activity Index declines (July 25)
MarketWatch: Apple outperforming gold (July 25)

Turd Ferguson: (am) Headed to the airport (July 25)
Turd Ferguson: (pm) Dried out and ready (July 25)
> "The open interest numbers, particularly in silver, are still so low that it's going to be very difficult for a cascade/waterfall to develop."
Economic Policy Journal: Projection on when Treasury balance goes negative (July 25)
Peter Tchir: Bread, circuses, cake and markets (July 25)
Peter Klein: There is life after default (July 25)
Merv Burak: Technically precious (July 25)
Larry Edelson: Who says the US has never defaulted? (July 25)
Sara Nunnally: No matter what, but silver (July 25)
Martin Weiss: Countdown to D-Day (July 25)
Gold Report: Eric Lemieux: No gold bubble (July 25)
Harvey Organ: No news on US debt ceiling (July 25)
Jim Sinclair: In the news today (July 25)
Corey Rosenbloom: Cross-market compression levels to watch (July 24)
Don't Tread on Me: Another silver drive-by-shooting coming? (July 24)
Gary North: Counterfeit gold standards (July 23)
Dan Norcini: Trader Dan on King World News (July 23)
> "The key for the gold market is whether or not it can continue to attract fresh buying from both existing long holders ... and from those who are just coming into the gold market."
Vedran Vuk/Jeff Clark: An undercurrent to gold? (July 22)
George Silgin: The folly that is 'local' currency (July 14)

Blog readers commentary
ScottJ: Two double bottoms forming (July 25)
TheGoodDoctor: @Peace Silver I read Larry (July 25)

Metal porn