Say it ain't so

Bianca Beauchamp

4:22 am (Hawaii) This can't be true. The Fly, Le Fly, retiring from the market? He may be convinced, but I say no. Why? He's had an emotionally draining few days recently. If he were to "retire" after a few boring days, successful or not, that would be a sticker. Not this. Not when he's exhausted, busy and tagged with the daily grind of being a parent/megamillionaire trader/interweb boss.

Other than that, the Dow is +255, Nas +41, S&P +23, all up 1.6 to 2.0%

I haven't tried anything since selling DGP in premarket. Things are positive for bulls, but the stuff I like are waffley. Indecisive. Lack of conviction from the buy side. I'll stay on the sideline in that case. I wanted to re-enter DGP, maybe even enter AGQ. But the run may be done for the morning, maybe the day. DGP sits above 55, which refuses to break. AGQ is sitting in the 126-127 area.

FAZ stays above 56. I'm looking for 50, greedy pig that I am.

My Regular watch list is 86% green, 14% red. Hasn't been that bullish since ... ever. AGQ, MCP, FAS, CHGS, GNK, YOKU, PSLV, MWW, SLV, DGP, YZC, SINA, UCO up 5.5% or more. Volume? Not a factor yet, but these steep gains have me thinking that we may be at a pivot point today, or we had one yesterday or Friday.


Bianca Beauchamp Black Transformation from Martin Perreault on Vimeo.

Game on: Rare earths playing tough

3:51 am (Hawaii) ZSL gaining in the past several minutes as gold and silver paper sell off. Note that the indices are now in green territory. XG tanking as it often does, but I'm not selling and I'm not adding more. This small position is more than enough exposure to the wacky miners. DGP's modest gain has dissipated. GSVC was green, but is now red. Not selling, but I'll look to add when it nears 15.55 (50% retrace from pre-second surge that went to almost 20).

SHZ has lifted to 3.34 on the rare-earths run today and yesterday. Strictly a day trade and will fall on its face once AVL, REE and MCP get hit with profit-taking. I saw SHZ at 3.26, saw it come back to 3.23 and wanted it at 3.19 (50% retrace of today's early gain). But it didn't get there and ran higher. Still watching, but this would be a tiny position anyway. Not chasing. I think.

Weekend cinema & library

Video

MaxKeiserTV: Why don't Greece, Spain float their income-producing assets? (July 8)

Minyanville: Are you smarter than a Wall Streeter (July 8)

James Dines: Now predicts silver to reach $300-$500 an ounce (July 8)

Alex Jones: Bob Chapman interview (July 8)

Alex Jones: Top Mexican drug dealer says US Gov gave them guns (July 8)

Vlogs

VictoryIndependence: Operation QE3 is a go! Unemployment report a disaster (July 8)

visionvictory: Gold goes vertical, unemployment, random check points (July 8)

SGTbull07: Jeff Nielsen on new Pan Asian Gold Exchange: Game changer? (July 8)

silverfuturist: $300 silver but when? (July 8)

morganslv: Silver holding @ 36+ (July 8)

george4title: Woman faces 90 days in jail for planting garden (July 8)

ScrapGoldBusiness: Retiring on welfare? (July 8)

zen5678: Castastrophe: When the dollar crashes (July 8)

PastorDowell: Silver update, keep stackin friends (June 28)

PastorDowell: Silver update advice for you (Apr 19)

PastorDowell: Never give up your guns! (Feb 22)

theeastwatch: Time to sell silver (Apr 19)

Reports & Blogs

Simon Black: Congress wants automatic wage deductions to pay down the debt (July 8)

Commodity Online: India to import 350 tons of gold, 1,200 tons of silver (July 7)

CNBC: Common politics muddy waters in rare earth discovery (July 6)

Jim Powell: Meeting the critical metals demand (June 28)

Titilating Thursday

10:20 am (Hawaii) Quite a stimulating session for bulls. I was asleep, away in Dreamland. Must've been good. I don't remember a thing, but my countenance is even. Meanwhile, the indices finished positive. The Nas up for an eighth day in a row.

I stayed out after watching the open. I missed this run up and I didn't want to catch the inevitable fall down. As expected, hotties XG and EXK made pit stops today after major moves higher. XG down 0.8% to 14.37 (afterhours) and EXK down 0.5% to 9.66.

More numbers came out today, more positive for the market, but really, it's all momentum based on the assumption that the debt ceiling will be raised and that the Eurozone has a better grip on its debt crisis for now. It's like this: FAS and FAZ are at extremes from one day to the next, regardless of how the indices are doing. Logically, FAZ should be crushing, but there's JPM (+1.9%), Citi (+1.7%), BAC (+1.7%), STD (+1.2%), GS (+0.9%) and so on. All these banksters eventually will run out of government handouts. Just a matter of when the plug gets pulled and they start gagging on their own poison. I don't think the big boys will die. They'll just languish until the market corrects itself without the life support provided by the doomed fractional reserve system.

My Metals list is 71% green, but the depth of huge gainers has been reduced. "Only" 18 issues gained at least 1.5%. FAS and UCO are in this list as convenient indicators for the broader view, but both were up more than 4% today. REE (+3.8%), PALL (+2.8%), MCP (+2.5%), CU (+2.4) were very strong for the rare earths and non-gold, non-silver traders. Copper's recent run hasBrother Turd pointing to a possible repeat of its run of last year.

You've probably been wondering about that, too. With Greece and the global debt crises, so much is similar to last year's market behavior: Lackluster in the spring, total launching pad in July and rocket ship action to the end of the year. Is that going to happen again in 2011? If they kick the proverbial can down the road again, it's clear the big money would like this to be so. Self-fulfilling prophecy and all that.

But I would add this: volume is sinking as this hot streak of the past week-plus continues. Here's a look at today's big winners on my Metals list.

FAS - volume up today compared to yesterday

UCO - volume way up, nearly double

REE - volume lower

PALL - volume lower

MCP - volume lower

CU - volume higher

AGQ - volume lower

PSLV - volume similar

AVL - volume lower

JJC - volume lower

COPX - volume HUGE

GG - volume higher

XME - volume lower

PLTM - volume higher

PGM - volume lower

AG - volume lower

DBB - volume similar

GOLD - volume higher

AGOL - volume higher

PPLT - volume HUGE

SLV - volume lower

WITE - volume lower

DBS - volume lower

Those are the metals on my list that were up more than 1%. For the most part, volume was lower today going into tomorrow's key report. It's been a quiet week, news wise, in Europe, and last week's end-of-month window dressing has carried over.

My Regular watch list is 78% green with PSUN, yes that PSUN (occasionally loved by Le Fly) up 10.2% today. There's better depth here than in my Metals list.

PSUN - volume HUGE

WNR - volume up big

VCLK - volume up

VLO - volume up HUGE

FCX - volume up HUGE

LVS - volume up HUGE

MNW - volume up

SWY - volume lower

RLOC - volume lower

CLNE - volume lower

GOOG - volume higher

ENY - volume similar

USO - volume higher

AMRN - volume higher

APC - volume similar

OWW - volume lower

FORM - volume higher

MSFT - volume higher.

All of these are stocks that gained at least 2% with the exception of MSFT (+1.8%). AAPL (+1.6%) moved up to 357 on lower volume. AMZN up 1.5% on higher volume. BIDU up 0.8% on similar volume. NFLX up 0.8% on lower volume.

It's good to be aware of the surroundings. Not everyone had the foresight to park money in NFLX, PCLN and AAPL below 50 and forget about it for a few years.

Rare earth Thursday

5:23 am (Hawaii) This week's bull run continues. DJ up 142 points (+1.1%) to 12,404. Nas up 30 points (+1.1%) to 2,771. S&P up 12.25 points (+0.9%) to 1,319. Metals list is 47% green, 48% red, 5% neutral. Rare earths are tearing higher. MCP (+6.6) is up $3.76 to 60.78. It was at 52 last week, dipping on news of major insider sales. REE is up 6.1% to 11.14. AVL is higher by 5.8% to 6.89.

The rest of the metals are up fractionally, none more than 1.5% with a few exceptions like CU, COPX, SVM, XME.

XG (+1.3%) and GDXJ (+1.2%) have decent gains so far. It smells like the run is petering out.

My Regular watch list is 68% green, 32% red. Ford (+3.5%), TSO (+3.2%) and RLOC (+2.7%) are among the leaders. Is this the end of the end-of-month window dressing? Tomorrow is July 1, so we'll find out soon enough. Today's supposed to mark the end of QE2, but all signs point to almost no fear of a prolonged hiatus until QE3. It appears improbable, even impossible, for the Fed to rule out the option of printing more dollars. There is no tangible alternative on the table, nor the political will to truly explore a cure for the ailing system.

Is the American public willing to take the medicine necessary? Are the powers that be willing to go down so we can transition to a new system? Of course not, not when it means losing billions of dollars. But the lie can't last forever.

Update 5:43 am (Hawaii) Financials are up across the board. SCGLY (+3.1%), NBG (+2.9%), BBVA (+2.7%), STD (+2.4%), DB (+1.6%) showing strength across the Eurozone. JPM, C, GS up fractionally. BAC down 1.2% on bad news yesterday. IRE down 1.8%. Finnies basically leading the run this week.

Raquel Welch

49ers hacking the Bears

7:08 am (Hawaii) If this were an NFL game, the 49ers (gold miners) would be stomping the Bears. NUGT is up 5.2% (29.70) on impressive volume. After trading 78K shares yesterday, NUGT has already traded 200K today, and it's only the halfway point. GDXJ is also up (2.8%) on solid volume, and same with GOLD and GDX.

Silver is also spiking this morning. AGQ is up 5.1% (164.95), though volume is sluggish throughout the silver sector. The sellers are sold out, or were, as of Monday-Tuesday, apparently. GPL (+4.6%), AG (+3.7%), PAAS (+3.4%) look nice on the surface, but again, volume is miniscule.

CU and COPX are gaining (3.5%) again, but volume is nothing special.

Rare earths are also up, but volume there is the same: middling. MCP is up 2.7%, possibly because of talk of a merger.

75% of my Metals list is green. Crude oil is rallying, the dollar is down and things appear to be "normal" for an upside day in metals. Even XG (+0.8%) and DGP (+1%) are up. How long the metals rally is a matter of how much the market believes QE3 is actually underway with the Fed buying Treasurys again. Can anybody eat tainted food without eventually keeling over?

They can't milk gold and silver dry this time

12:54 pm (Hawaii) Charts and ETFs don't mesh often times, but with Spot Silver and Gold prices locked in a range, it's possible, just possible that we see certain patterns remain for the coming weeks.

• ZSL has run from 17 to 19+, back to 17, and up to 19.58, all in the past two weeks.

• DUST ran to 52, down to 44, then up to 48.92 since June 16.

• QID went from 54 to 57, back to 54, up to 56 since June 14.

• MCP pure kookoo in two weeks. 46 to 52 in two days, then down to 47 and up to 54 in another two-day span. then 52 to 56 between yesterday and today. It's one of those you can trade like a madman, or just pocket it and forget about it for a year. Rare earths are here to stay and the Chinese are going to make sure supply (they control 97% of the stuff) is limited.

• Other rare earth princes like REE have been roller-coaster nauseating. REE went from 9.00 to 11.40 in two days. Sank to 9.40, rode up to 11.10 and is at 10.67 after hours today. All in two weeks.










• Puppet masters knocked gold down as it was about to break to new highs, which means DZZ went from 6.35 to 6.89 since Wednesday. Same move for GLL, from 22.40 to 24.12 in the same time frame.

• FAZ is hovering between 46+ and 52. As more and more banksters (and insurance companies) announce huge writedowns and losses in the coming weeks due to Euro debts, fear of bank collapses and closings should drive FAZ much higher. Nothing would surprise me, though, including some devious plan that would keep the banksters solvent and maintain their current levels of stock price and Monopoly currency.

• JJC, the copper subindex ETN, has been stuck between 53 and 55. Currently 53.83. If stagnant, almost predictable action is your thing, let 'er rip. China's not coming to a complete standstill anytime soon.

• AGQ is a sight. From 165 to 186 in steady action for almost two weeks, then blindsided by the CME mafia the past two days. By CME mafia, I do mean all the powers that manipulate the "Free Market" of commodities, such as crude oil. I am NOT for blatant naked shorting, but I don't see the point of kneecapping any price discovery, especially when the LONG-TERM effect will be negligible at best.







Same goes for all the silver plays that were hammered the past two days, even though MINERS SHOULD BE GAINING DUE TO DECREASED ENERGY COSTS! It's mind boggling to see it all play out. I'm not advocating a full swan dive into miners (gold and silver) here, but AGQ is among many  metal plays now near YTD lows. At 160, AGQ is only a couple of bucks higher than its low a month ago.

It all comes back to what Mike Maloney has said for years and years: The Fed, that private entity that runs our finances, may not have any gold and silver in its vaults. Meanwhile, central banks across the globe have wizened up in recent years and started to accumulate mass quantities of metals to hedge against their valueless US fiat currency/IOUs. So how does the Fed respond? By holding gold and silver hostage.

It ain't pretty. They've got one, maybe two bullets left and they're up against Justice. You can't fuck over the world this long, borrow to the hilt, and not pay back WHILE STILL ASKING FOR MORE FUNDS TO BORROW. It would be best to restructure and concede rather than drag out the hostage crisis. By doing this to us, the Fed and banksters are simply prolonging the inevitable. I have no doubt that they are personally stocking up on all the gold and silver they can at these levels, and I would not be surprised if this is also a way to benefit all our debt masters, particularly China. This gives them ample opportunity to stock up at low prices.

Meanwhile, the value of the dollars we make by working every day (if we have jobs) is eroding by the day. A fucking candy bar at Safeway costs $1.29 now. This is like shopping for snacks at the movie theater. It's just getting worse. And it's been far worse in other countries for a much longer time.

I am not sweating the decline of spot price. I am just anxious to buy at the best discount I can get. That might come on Monday in two weeks or two months, but it's coming. I'm loading. I'm stacking. I'm not waiting for my bank to re-open after some strange "inventory" closing when one of our debt masters calls our bluff at the poker table. I think some of the experts are right. Jeff Christian is probably right when he says silver will drop to 26, then go up, up, up from there late in the year. Jim Sinclair is probably right when he says silver will rocket this year. Maybe not this summer, but eventually, yes.

By then, it won't be a question of how much we paid to protect our assets. It'll be a matter of how much protection we accumulated. I feel for the hard-working folks who were stretched to the limits, but there are also a lot of lazyass bitches who borrowed off their credit cards to the hilt. They bought stuff they couldn't afford for decades, and I'm not about to let them get me again. If they aren't ready this time, that's their effing problem.

Denise Milani

Silver, gold squished, but rare earths are hot

3:41 am (Hawaii) A rare morning of no sleep, just stayed up through the night. Being a night owl, that's not hard. But I will crash out soon enough and leave the market to the rest of you crazy people, trying to trade this madness ...

Well, the bad news is silver plays are getting scorched. ZSL is up 2.3% to 18.92. But a sidelight is the way rare earth plays are also near the top of my Metals list. MCP is +2.3% to 55.18, off its early high of 55.50. REE is also pushing toward the top, up 1.6% to 10.67. AVL is hot, too (+2.4%).

Gold is also getting sandblasted. Crude oil is down again, which is positive for SCO (+1.8%). Metals list is 41% green, 49% red.

AAPL is fractionally higher. All in all, a blaaah kind of open. No catalyst in sight for bulls. The bear view is middling at best, though things could get interesting going into the close for something like FAZ. Or if Spot Silver is ready to drop through 34, ZSL would be a possible ride.

Interest rates status quo

 

6:27 am (Hawaii): Breaking news is no change in interest rates. That's no surprise. I like how the info usually gets released (on paper) to the media this way, an hour or two before Bernanke speaks. The FOMC statement notes the weakening labor numbers.

Generally bullish despite the flat indice numbers so far today. The losers on my Regular watch list are mostly down less than 1%, though NFLX is way near the bottom.

My Metals list is 75% green, 25% red. GPL is up 6%, EGO up 4.5%, NGD up 4.1%, NUGT up 3.8%, XG up 3.7%, MCP up 3%, GDXJ up 3%. My favorite miners are up: EXK (+1.3%) and XG (+3.2%). Both have comparable volume to yesterday at this point.

More losers: DUST (-3.8%), SCO (-2.2%), ZSL (-1.2%).

AAPL is flat. UUP flat, also. While other miners are up nicely, PAAS is flat (+0.2%). GLD is up just 0.4%.

Rare, indeed

11:22 am (Hawaii) Rare earth plays looked strong today. Good moves to the upside on increased volume. Nothing in this market is moving with mass volume and momentum, but these guys are not just well off their highs, but are going to continue in the long term to be solid even in a down economy due to their status in electronics, technology. Defense weapons. Batteries. Plus, China supposedly is home to 95% 97% of the planet's rare earths. The biggest advantage may be this: rare earths are NOT manipulated by the banksters. As of now, there is no exchange-traded puppetry of rare earths. I doubt the Chinese would go for that — backing an American bankster mafia exchange with their rare earths.

How long until Hang Seng or Shanghai open their own RARE EARTH COMMODITY EXCHANGE? I say there's one by January 1, 2012.

A look at MCP: 3-month chart and 1-year. Huge gain since IPO.

A look at smaller rare earth plays AVL and REE:

Wikipedia: Rare earth element

Barron's: Molycorp jumps as analysts heap on praise (June 20 2011)

Barron's: Molycorp's CEO's $8.9 million sale (June 20 2011)

Reuters: Molycorp sees Sumitomo deal closing by September (June 20 2011)

Seeking Alpha/Dr. Duru: Chinese academic's rare earth forecasts at odds with experts (June 20 2011)

(video) CNTV: Restructuring China's rare earth industry (June 20 2011)

China Daily: Rare earth supplies expected to grow (June 16 2011)

(video) BBC: Rare earths mining: China's 21st century gold rush (June 16 2011)

Jeb Handwerger: Why China's rare earth exports really matter (June 7 2011)

Seeking Alpha/Engineer Broker: Molycorp target is $472, 2H 2013 (May 31 2011)

Wall Street Journal: China rare earth exports rise (May 21 2011)

BBC: China expands export quotas of rare earth metals (May 19 2011)

Wall Street Journal: A warning on rare earth elements by GS (May 6 2011)

Jack Lifton: In Xanadu, did GS decree a rare earths surplus? (May 6 2011)

Alacra Pulse: JP Morgan's Michael Gambardella raises MCP target to $74 (Mar 29 2011)

Reuters: China rare earth prices explode as export volumes collapse (Mar 22 2011)

The Telegraph: Rare earths: Why China is cutting exports crucial to Western technologies (Mar 19 2011)

Reuters: China to tighten limits on rare earth exports (Dec 29 2010)

Seeking Alpha: Rare earth metals not so rare but valuable (Nov 4 2008)

Inner Mongolia

Euro up? Dollar up? Metals up?

9:29 am (Hawaii) Fell fast asleep the past several hours on this cool, wet Honolulu morning. Sleep in cool weather is always appreciated. So is a market that is not outright destroyed by the puppet masters. The indices are fractionally higher. My Metals list is 57% green, 41% red.

Gold (1541, +0.1%), Silver (35.99, +0.6%) are holding up after yesterday's Forex.com news. Platinum (-1.1%) and Copper (-0.6%). Palladium -0.3%).

SLW has held its gains (3%), along with today's leader, MCP (+7.3%), though MCP has lost a bit of its huge gain. GPL, REE, SVM, AVL all up big today. GG, PASS, NUGT, NGD and EXK up more than 1.3%.

As was the case last Thursday, today's gainers are up on scant volume. They are having a snack, a little bag of chips or half an apple or a cup of yogurt. This won't sustain them for the week.

As Greece and the Euro zone figure out their problems, financials are bracing for the worst. The finnies on my Debt Spiral list are all in the red again, though mostly less than -1%. My favorite play in this spiral is FAZ, which is near flat for the day. Again, volume is light and probably will be until Bernanke speaks on Wednesday.

My other favorites, little miners EXK (+1.5% to 7.82) and XG (+1.1% to 11.40) have low volume. Double-long gold ETN DGP is barely green (49.18).

In other words, this was a good day to sleep in.

AAPL has bounced off its low (310.50) and is at 314.91, down nearly 2%. Still an unhealthy indicator for the market and techs. Crude oil (93.25, +0.2%) flat. US Dollar up 3¢ to 75.52.

Update 10:19 am (Hawaii) Forgot to note that GLD and SLV traded anemically today after yesterday's Forex.com news. GLD traded 19.2 million shares on Friday, just 10.4 mil today. SLV had 23.6 mil on Friday, 21.0 mil today. Did fear creep in? Maybe. I still think things are flat as a banana pancake until Bernanke on Wednesday.

Flip-flopping along

4:24 am (Hawaii) Miners look good so far despite a slight dip in the past 20 minutes. XG is up 1% to 11.38. EXK up 0.9% to 7.77. AGQ is down 0.6% to 175.61. DGP up by a hair to 49.16.

FAZ is up 1.1% to 49.75 as the financials are simmering in red so far.

AAPL just ugly, down 2.4% to 312.54. The plunge below 325 was expected; no support until 300. Still shocking to see, and few other stocks lead the market up or down like AAPL does. The indices don't look bad (Dow -0.2%, Nas -0.05%, S&P -0.03%), but my Metals list and Regular watch list have been mostly red in the past week.

Metals list is 40% green, 55% red. Regular list is 44% green, 55% red. Looks like fluctuation and a lot of flip-flopping by fish on the shoreline. Running in place.

The leaders: MCP (+8.3%), GPL (+7.2%), REE (+5.6%), AMRN (+4.3%), AVL (+4.1%), SVM (+2.4%), GSF (+2.4%), SLW (+2.8%), BIDU (+2.3%), RLOC (+2.3%), LULU (+2.0%).

Along with AAPL, LNKD is another loser so far (-4.1%).

Update 4:47 am (Hawaii) MCP is not a shock at +9.3% this morning. Can't remember who said this over the weekend, but with China having 95% of the world's rare earths market, and unlike gold, silver, platinum and palladium, there is no exchange trading of rare earths (at least not yet). There's no Comex or CME mafia to shackle rare earths, which have risen in value 3x to 4x in the past few months.

MCP is already at 4.1 million shares traded in the first 75 minutes. It had 5.4 mil shares all of Friday. If today's gap up holds, could be bullish. Coming off a major gap down two weeks ago and far from its high (78+, May 4), this is starting to look attractive.

Tuesday lunch munch

How's the ice down there?

7:15 am (Hawaii) Just woke up to a sunny, cool morning in the islands. Could not get that darn wireless connection going for an hour, so I'm out of bed and sitting at the desk. Just as well. There's a new Max Keiser report out, some good stuff with David Morgan about Utah's new precious metals coinage enacted into law.

China's inflation number (5.5%) met expectations, but is that really enough to slow bearish momentum?

My Metals list is 71% green, 28% red. The glaring common denominator, though, is that volume is anemic. Though we're just past halfway for the day, volume is scant, just like it was a few days ago when the market slide halted for a day. Top gainers so far: REE (+6.7% to 6.81), AVL (+6.6% to 6.28), EXK (+6.2% to 8.13), AG (+5.9% to 17.44), GPL (+4.9% to 3.00). That's two up days for GPL. SVM, AGQ, NGD, MCP and NUGT are also more than 3% up. A lot of big percentage gainers, but with so few shares traded, this could easily get shredded by the alien machines before the closing bell. My hunch is the gains will be pared somewhat, but still finish up nicely for the day. But with the poor volume, the downtrend will resume tomorrow.

TWN (-4.5%), ZSL (-4.3%), SCO (-3.8%), DUST (-3.8%) and FAZ (-3.4%) are the worst losers thus far.

Dow Jones +1.2%, NAS +1.5%, S&P +1.4%.

My Regular watch list is 86% green, 14% red, but again, volume is miniscule. There aren't many sellers, but there are even fewer buyers. It's the machines keeping the market above thin ice. AAPL is up 1.5% to 331.44, but volume is just 6.9 mil shares compared to yesterday's 11.7 mil.

(video) Max Keiser: Economic melt-through, David Morgan (June 14 2011)
Zero Hedge: Standard Chartered: '3 factors will drive gold to $5,000' (June 14 2011)
Standard Chartered: In gold we trust (full report) (June 14 2011)

Heavy Metal Movement

10:25 am (Hawaii) Bouncy day in precious metals today. Moves of 1.5% and higher in dozens of PM plays. Smaller miners gained huge chunks on light volume. GPL (+10.9%) to 2.85. AG (+6.4%) to 18.69, XG (+6.1%) to 11.30. EXK (+5.9%) to 8.44. AVL (+5.1%) to 6.41. But again, the soft buying isn't convincing.

GPL 2.5 mil shares traded yesterday, 1.8 mil today
AG 1.36 mil yesterday, 976K today
XG 257K yesterday, 230K today
EXK 4.1 mil yesterday, 2.0 mil today
AVL 2.5 mil yesterday, 1.5 mil today

It goes on and on. My gut said, Get some EXK and XG before the bell. But the numbers spell out the truth: PMs are still on thin, thin ice here. After six sessions in a row of struggle, the dead cat bounced high. But now it's flat on its face again.

My Metals list is 72% green, 26% red. It feels not good to have not a shred of profit off this, but I don't need to be early to make money. If this bounce is for real and PMs are ready to rally, I've got time. But gold has flopped about in the past two summers even in the midst of a bull market. Instead of following risk-crazy fish out of water to be dead on some boat, I'll be a pilot fish and follow the whales and sharks carefully.

The worst plays on my Metals list: MCP (-4.1%), DUST (-3.5%), ZSL (-3.1%), FSG (-1.4%).

Still have my small position in DGP, which is up 0.9% to 49.44. I'm 90% cash.

A crude hump day

5:52 am (Hawaii) There's crude oil up 3.8%. There's LNKD up 0.8%. The rest of the greenies on my Metals list is sparse. At 19% and mostly bear ETFs, it's a supremely negative day so far for the metals. DUST is up 4.7%, UCO rising higher on news that there's no news out of that Middle East meeting on production, ZSL up 2% ... Spot Gold is down to 1536 and Spot Silver at 36.62 (after dipping close to 36.00).

MCP (-8.4%), SVM (-8.1%), EXK (-7%), REE (-5.6%) and VL (-5.2%) are just a few of the players getting pinata-ed today. XG (-3.4%), AGQ (-2.2%), PAAS (-2.9%), it's fugly. It's not shocking. It's summer and the doldrums are here. I'm glad I mistakenly set my alarm for 1:21 pm instead of 1:21 am. How many traders opened positions in ZSL yesterday? It closed at 17.11 and opened today at 17.57. Now trading at 17.36. Unless you opened a position yesterday, you're in the red today. Did I need to 4+ hours of sleep for that? Naaah.

I'm now down almost $300 on OWW even though the position is teeny. This is a great reminder of why I stopped playing (getting played by) penny stocks in the first place years ago. The price almost always provides all the explanation necessary. But down this deep, near it's all-time low, it's pointless to sell. Another piece of positive news and OWW goes back up. It could double, triple, quadruple. Even with a Vegas-play-money mentality in this play, it still sucks to be holding the bag.

In case you're not convinced that OWW is a horrible buy, go back some years. OWW was a rumored takeover target with a buyout price of $26 to $28. Talk about cruel jokes. Priceline they were not.

Turd: Hoping to be wrong (June 8 2011)

(video) KSL News: Utah precious metals currency takes effect (June 1 2011)

Say whuutt?

8:44 am (Hawaii) Tried to stay up, mostly slept through the session so far. An hour away from Helicopter's speech. The market has reverse from moderately negative to moderately (0.5-0.6%) positive and silver plays are en vogue. AVL (+3.3%), EXK (+3.0%), AGQ (2.9%) are the top gainers on my Metals list. PALL (+2.7%), MCP (+2.6%) are also up nicely.

(Note: These are up on roughly half of yesterday's volume. Machinery. It's the machines buying into the Bernanke speech. Humans are on the sideline. It's a lure, I'm guessing.)

Gold is still laying low after being sniped twice earlier. I saw that in my doldrums, trying to stay awake. The Spot charts don't exactly tell the tale. Take a look at the 1-minute charts. Absolutely goosed and gutted first at 10:53 am (Eastern) and again at 11:14 am (Eastern). Pure manipulation that is more common in Spot Silver than Gold. Still, buyers have bid up price almost back to the 10:53 level.

The assassination attempt on Gold seemed to indicate that some of the big boys got wind of Helicopter's theme for the speech and unloaded in panic. Controlled panic. What if they're wrong? What if they were bluffed? Who ends up holding the bag when he starts talking 15 minutes before the closing bell? What if he delays until after the bell?

Way too many questions. This is no place to start a new position long or short. I remain 90% cash.

One small morsel at a time

4:35 am (Hawaii) The sky is black and hungry baby birds are starting to sing. The air is cool and the early morning has brought no rain, no humidity ... just a pleasant and cool, and quiet, time of day. Maybe the best time of day, all things considered, in this pit of traffic and overcrowding. Yes, Honolulu is still picturesque. It just ain't what it used to be. Sometimes, you just can't go back.

I have yet to turn on the TV, being satisfied with my place in bed and the aforementioned solitude. But the indices are down due to abysmal manufacturing numbers. Senor Turd notes that this shouldn't be any kind of surprise to the market, but one result is that gold shot up 10 bucks.

That's good for my small portion of DGP (+1.1%), bad for most of my Metals list. At one point after the opening bell, 78% were in the red. Now it's only 71%. ZSL and FAZ have taken turns leading the way. FAZ was at 44.14, dropped to 43.85 and I thought maybe a rally was underway. But really, there is no rally coming this morning because there just isn't any good news for now. So FAZ is now up to 44.32.

Gold is hanging in there. NGD is up a half percent, GLD is fractionally higher, and even PALL is still green. But DUST, the gold miner 2x bear, is still up 0.8%. It's tough sledding for gold plays today. It's much rougher on silver plays. ZSL is up 2.6% while AGQ struggles to stay above 200. AG, EXK, SLV are all down. So much for slightly bullish hammers on yesterday's charts. Just goes to show, technicals mean nothing in the face of economic thresholds.

Rare metals (MCP, AVL) are being hammered, as is LNKD, which is now below 79 (-3.5%).

The one, buoyant leader is AAPL, which is up 2.3% to 350. It was at 337 yesterday early, then sat at 343 for hours after the news about next week's presentation featuring Steve Jobs. AAPL closed above 347, then traded today above 352. Major show of strength. Question is whether it can sustain this move while the rest of the market is in the red. Though my metals list is bleeding, my regular watch list (non-metals) is 76% red.

Update 4:53 am (Hawaii) FAZ now 44.55. It appears not everyone in Greece is geeked up about austerity measures. Still. Once again, Euro possessors seek refuge in gold.

AP: Greek banker dismisses euro exit as review looms (June 1 2011)

Reuters: Stocks fall as manufacturing slows (June 1 2011)

Turd: ADP vs. BLS (June 1 2011)

Update 5:16 am (Hawaii) This would be known as a Viagra.

This, even more so.

Update 5:33 am (Hawaii) Metals list is now 56% green. That was quick. Most silver plays went straight up, lower left to the upper right of their charts, in the past 30 minutes or so. Many of them are green now, or close to it. This is a daytrader's joy ride.

Bad credit, bad hair and Europe?

10:17 am (Hawaii) So what does this half-assed solution to the Greek debt crisis mean? How did it spur the indices higher through the closing bell? Was it all just AAPL?

How much of it was end-of-month window dressing? How many of those same fund bosses sell their AAPL and other assorted non-essentials tomorrow before the peon premarket?

A meltdown in Greece, then Portugal, then Spain, France, UK ... wouldn't all of this have left gold and silver alone to run higher and higher? Are we really that much closer to the stack-your-cans-of-sardines-and-Spam days?

One thing is clear. The daily charts show many, many silver plays with fairly bullish candlestick charts. I don't think it's an all-clear that silver shoots up vertically from here, but it's something to watch.

Big Apple

A major gap open and strong finish on increased volume. Under normal conditions, what's not to like, right? But even AAPL can't withstand the unnatural currents of the global market.

Crude activity

What's good for crude oil is good for the market? Not necessarily, but Sensei Turd Ferguson has been forecasting a crude move to the upside.

Silver hammers

AGQ, AG, EXK, SLV all have hammer candles that are somewhat bullish. It's not enough for me to jump in head first, so I'm still 90% cash. But it's getting attractive.

In an afternoon update, Turd pointed to 37.50 as an area of "stout support", with a re-test of 39.50 soon. I suppose I'm selfish wanting prices below 35 to buy physical.

Gold isn't looking as interesting, which is expected after last week's move (and the sputter action of silver). I don't know what to make of XG's candle today except that it finished with some momentum. An oddity.

The gold junior miners ETF looks nice, but GLD looks tired. It might be time for some consolidation. I'm still positive on gold in general, still holding a small piece of DGP, which also looks tired here.

Rare earths are foreign to me, but MCP looks full of vigor here.

If you look hard enough, the palladium ETF chart looks a little bit like XG. Bullish, but something's not quite right.

Copper ETF looks positive, but is all the news out of China already baked in? Copper was a good play a week ago when China's growth turned up strong, but this is a tightrope here. Long term, I wouldn't fear this trade, but I can't hold anything that long in this market.

I'm sticking to my gut for now and staying mostly out. AAPL will be interesting if it holds its ground, but much of that depends on the chaos in the Euro zone and, well, just about everywhere else.

SGS is skeptical about PMs and noted earlier that if gold can't keep up, silver will be ravaged by the puppet masters.

A pullback in PMs would be par for the course. Gold, in particular, tends to pull back on any gains during the summer. It has the last two summers. I'd look to add more physical on discount prices as volume wanes and the lulls take over.