Market just pissing it all away

No surprise here. No news still would've moved the Dow Jones and Nasdaq down, but the Fed bailout of Bear Stearns ... the road is so crooked, nobody can see straight. CNBC says two days ago, Bear Stearns insisted that there were no liquidity problems. And yet, today, they accept a bailout and the market goes haywire, down 2%. Nasdaq is down 61 points.

The very thing that annoys me to no end — people borrowing and spending beyond their limits — is what has put our economy under enormous, severe pressure on several fronts. Many of us can't pay for our homes anymore. Many of us are in major credit debt. China basically owns our ass. And that gets worse with the dollar falling off a cliff. Even the Japanese have us by the nuggets now that the dollar is worth only ¥99.

Is anything in the green today? Barely.

• Blue Nile is up a fraction, but at 40, it has been destroyed since hitting a high of 100 last year
• Ninetowns Internet (NINE) is up 2.3% to 2.23, but is down from its all-time high of 7.20
• China Medical is up fractionally to 40
• Dick's Sporting Goods is up 2.5% to 26.66
• Gamestop is up 2.4% to 48.31
• Boeing is up 1.3% to 75.17
• Healthways is up almost 1% to 32.73

But those are far and few in between. The vast majority of the market is deep in a red sea. Commodities had been steady until today's selloff. Gold hit $1,009 per ounce. IShares Silver Trust (SLV) is up a bit to 204.86. Global silver supply will dry up within a decade, supposedly. That reminds me of the talk that phosphorus supply will evaporate within 50 years, and will hit the fertilizer sector in a bad way. It's only fitting that "liquid gold" may become a source of phosphorus some day. Quite gross, but in the realm of possibility.

A rare Monday down day

So much for fears over the People's National Congress in China. While Chinese stocks held ground and some even soared to new highs — unexpectedly in the eyes of some concerned investors and traders — it was the U.S. market that folded a bit. The Dow Jones fell 108 points (0.77%), Nasdaq dropped 25 points (0.91%) and S&P 500 dipped 13 points (0.84%). The Dow fell under 14,000 to 13,984. Was it Citigroup's dismal earnings report? Possibly, but the Co had already warned about lower earnings. Was it crude oil, which finished the day above $86 a barrel? Not really. The market has gained significantly on oil's up days in the past few weeks.

Maybe it's just a little more fear and profit-taking than usual. More financials will report this week. But with Yahoo (Tuesday), eBay (Wednesday) and Google (Thursday) reporting this week, the Nasdaq will have some volatility. I'm not expecting much from the first two, though Yahoo's earnings from Asia could be significant. How soon will eBay penetrate the Chinese market? I won't be holding my breath. Google failed to meet expectations last quarter, but their game plan is sound. Spending on R&D and new hires as they expand in China is acceptable in my book. The G-phone is a bonus.

China held up, which still sounds a bit surprising. Just a little. New Oriental Education and Technology (EDU) launched to a new high after announcing earnings before the open. EDU closed on Friday above 66, opened today at 71 and closed at 75. That was a nice response to the PNC's first day. Nearly all the Chinese stocks that I watch are virtually the only greenies on my lists. CMED is at 42 (after hours). FMCN is up 1.7% to 59.15. CHL is up 1.9% to 88.80.

China and oil continue to be a glorious combination. PTR is up 9.2% to 236 and CEO is up 5.7% to 188 (after a mid-day high of 192). CEO was at 92 on subprime meltdown day (August 16). The stock was up big in premarket on less than 10,000 shares, triggered by crude oil's gain. I think.

CHL is up 1.9% to 88.80. STV was surprisingly positive, now at 50.15 (up 2.1%).

No, China wasn't perfect. BIDU dropped 2.7% to 314. SINA and YGE were down. Even Macao plays LVS and WYNN were down.

Note to self: don't fight the trends. Oil rules. China energy and pollution are going to be Quarry Logic fixtures for decades to come. The Chinese middle class will not be deprived.

Double-checking the shopping list

On Friday, I did some mental preparation (as opposed to physical prep via barf bag for another turbulent ride) by staking out some price targets if stocks plunged again.

Well, Nasdaq is actually up 7 points today, but a large majority of the strongest growth stocks have been stunted. One of my favorites, CROX, actually fell from $59 at the open to a low of $52, but I missed the bargain-buying opportunity. It was bedtime for me (4-7 a.m. Hawaii time). Oh well.

Here's a look at my A- and B+ stock lists and where the targets compare as of 1:50 p.m. Eastern time.





[A-] Amazon (AMZN), Friday price 76, target 70 ... today's low 76, currently 77
[A-] Apple (AAPL), now 131, target 125 ... today's low 128, currently 132
[A-] Baidu (BIDU), now 198, target 175 ... today's low 186, currently 191
[A-] Crocs (CROX), now 58, target 54 ... today's low 52.50, currently 55
[A-] Foster Wheeler (FWLT), now 110, target 98 ... today's low 101, currently 101
[A-] Garmin (GRMN), now 98, target 88 ... today's low 95, currently 95
[A-] Google (GOOG), now 503, target 480 ... today's low 502, currently 507
[A-] Nintendo (NTDOY.PK), now 56, target 55 ... today's low n/a, current bid 57.20, current ask 57.50
[A-] Research in Motion (RIMM), now 218, target 206 ... today's low 213, currently 217
[A-] Under Armor (UA), now 64, target 60 ... today's low 62, currently 63

Of these 10 A- picks, only one has already hit the target (CROX).





[B+] China Medical Parts (CMED), now 32, target 30 ... today's low 27, currently 28
[B+] CNOOC Ltd. (CEO), now 113, target 111 ... today's low 109, currently 109
[B+] Darden Intl. (DAR), now 8.03, target 7.50 ... today's low 7.82, currently 8.03
[B+] Flowserve (FLS), now 68, target 65 ... today's low 67, currently 68
[B+] Focus Media (FMCN), now 39, target 35 ... today's low 37, currently 37
[B+] Gmarket (GMKT), now 22, target 21 ... today's low 21.55, currently 22.32
[B+] HDFC Bank (HDB), now 81, target 73 ... today's low 81, currently 83
[B+] Intercontinental Exch. (ICE), now 153, target 140 ... today's low 148, currently 152
[B+] Opsware (OPSW), sold to HPQ at 14.25
[B+] Potash Corp. (POT), now 85, target 77 ... today's low 81, currently 82
[B+] Precision Castparts (PCP), now 137, target 125 ... today's low 134, currently 135
[B+] Salesforce.com (CRM), now 39, target 27 ... today's low 38, currently 40
[B+] SanDisk (SNDK), now 53, target 49 ... today's low 53, currently 53
[B+] Sina Corp. (SINA), now 42, target 40 ... today's low 40.85, currently 41.63

Of the 14 B+, two Chinese stocks hit targets. CMED is a tough call even at 28. CEO, though, trades at only 11 times earnings and is a solid oil/gas play out of China. Plenty of growth ahead as an off-shore driller providing energy for a booming economy.

Gmarket of South Korea is another nice company on this radar. The robust earnings report of last week was nice, but I want to examine GMKT's potential competition across East Asia a lot more closely.

Overall, there's no point in climbing into a plane when weather is stormy. If anything, small ball (chiseling in with small positions) could work here, but I'm going to wait it out before buying more.

Pupule Paul is long AAPL, BIDU, CROX, NTDOY.PK, UA, FMCN and SINA.

Yes, B+ picks can be bargains too

Here's my shopping list for Monday, when the market could resume the Big Dipper, then turn around at mid-day.

I never cared for roller coasters, but that's what we're on for awhile. My wish list, current prices and target buy prices (highly adjustable):

[B+] China Medical Parts (CMED), now 32, target 30
[B+] CNOOC Ltd. (CEO), now 113, target 111
[B+] Darden Intl. (DAR), now 8.03, target 7.50
[B+] Flowserve (FLS), now 68, target 65
[B+] Focus Media (FMCN), now 39, target 35
[B+] Gmarket (GMKT), now 22, target 21
[B+] HDFC Bank (HDB), now 81, target 73
[B+] Intercontinental Exch. (ICE), now 153, target 140
[B+] Opsware (OPSW), sold to HPQ at 14.25
[B+] Potash Corp. (POT), now 85, target 77
[B+] Precision Castparts (PCP), now 137, target 125
[B+] Salesforce.com (CRM), now 39, target 27
[B+] SanDisk (SNDK), now 53, target 49
[B+] Sina Corp. (SINA), now 42, target 40

Dammit, where's the barf bag?

B+ picks slide, but Potash still rising

The B+ gang of picks is holding up fairly well, but that's like saying there were survivors of the Titanic. Fortunately, no lives are being lost in today's market, no matter how bloody.

With Dow Jones down 281 points (2.1%) and Nasdaq off 64 points (2.5%), five of the B+ picks were down more than 3%. Flowserve (FLS) sank 4.7% to $68.87 after announcing that it would sell its Swiss manufacturing facility.

HDFC Bank (HDB) of India was down 4.5% to $81.71. No bad news. Just a big bank being hit hard like all the financials. Whether the credit issue pertains to India is another question.

Darling International (DAR) got an upgrade on Monday, but sold down with the rest of the market. DAR closed at $8.03, down 4%.

China Medical Parts (CMED) and CNOOC Ltd. (CEO) were hit by U.S. volatility, as well. No bad news for either company, which could make CNOOC extremely attractive. With a P/E of 11 and return on equity of 34%, I admit it. I'm tempted.

Of the 13 B+ picks, five are in the green. Potash (POT) continues to trade like an internet bubble stock. The fertilizer company is up another 1.9% to $85,35. When I took notice of Potash a few months back, it was at $210 (pre-3 for 1 split) and it look overpriced. Wrong. I was wrong. As long as agriculture is hot, so it will be with the big POT.

SanDisk (SNDK), Focus Media (FMCN) and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) are also up. SNDK had a great earnings report a couple of weeks ago, but has pulled back from its recent high of $62. SNDK is trading at $53.43, up 1.6% for the day.

FMCN is up on no news, but the stock has been hammered in the past month since the Co asked Nasdaq for a hearing regarding two letters from a short seller. FMCN traded up 1.1% to $39.82, well off its high of $52.