Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Wednesday cinema & library (updated 1200 am HST)



Blogs
(new) SGS: Silver coiling like a cobra (Aug 31)
Turd Ferguson: The PAGE is turning (Aug 31)
Business Insider: Former Reagan adviser: US debt is actually $211 trillion (Aug 31)
Dan Norcini: Monthly gold charts, August 2011 (Aug 31)
Financial Times: China and copper (Aug 31)
Gonzalo Lira: Mr. Cheney's victory lap (Aug 31)
(new) Jason Hommel: 10 biblical skills for managing wealth (Aug 22)

Vlogs
(new) Heretic Productions: Shit and shinola on banks of river of darkness (Aug 31)
(new) Christopher Greene: Time to acknowledge that US is collapsing (Aug 31)
(new) BrotherJohnF: Silver update - Jobama (Aug 31)
(new) Endless Mountain: The Silver Log (Aug 31)
(new) ScrapGoldBusiness: Talking about gold and silver (Aug 31)
(new) GuildF40: Metal and channel update (Aug 31)
(new) george4title: Costs of working in US creep upward (Aug 31)
Tony Sagami: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Profits (Aug 30)

Audio
(new) Peter Schiff Show (Aug 31)
> 1 hr, 14 min
King World News: Stephen Leeb (Aug 30)
King World News: Gerald Celente (Aug 29)

Reports

Video



Bumpadeeda, bumpadeeda . . .


9:03 am (Hawaii) Yesterday was an altogether swell day. Had nothing to do with the indices, Eurozone and US debt disasters, hurricanes, tsunamis or the price of gold and silver. In fact, yesterday was affirmation that life does not revolve around finances and avoiding inflation and the next president of the free world. Yesterday was fun. That's why the first thing I did when I got up a couple of hours ago was ... water the plants.

The Dow Jones was +100 at that time and is now only +20. If 0% interest is supposed to shove all savers into the market by necessity, a gain of 800 points post-Jackson Hole was reasonable. But now what? As Scott Bleier blogged recently, this may be neither bull nor bear market. It's a tight trading range without any real impetus.

I remain willfully engaged in non-market activities and have no inclination to dive into AGQ or DGP again just yet. Any position is stuck on a small boat in a dead sea, vulnerable to anything.

Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Tuesday cinema & library


Blogs
Turd Ferguson: (pm) Read this now (Aug 30)
Zero Hedge: QE3 Levitation Day 2 (Aug 30)
> A decade ago, Celente was advising to by gold at $280.
Zero Hedge: JPM demanding QE3 (Aug 30)
Times of India: India makes buying gold easier (Aug 30)
Turd Ferguson: (am) All the fuss (Aug 30)

Vlogs
Christopher Greene: Collapse imminent (Aug 30)
Endless Mountain: The Silver Log (Aug 30)
USAprepares.com: Bob Chapman interview (Aug 30)
James Turk: Ned Naylor-Leyland interview (Aug 30)
> Aug 5 interview
H1INC: Silver: A final warning (Aug 30)

Audio

Blog commentary
Inbetween is pain: No shame - only hubris (Aug 30)
ScottJ: Playing devil's advocate (Aug 30)

Reports

Video
CNBC: The rush for gold (Aug 30)
> Guest Sen. Ron Paul
CNBC: New hints of QE3? (Aug 30)

Metal bling


Prophesifantastical?



11:40 am (Hawaii) Here we go. Brother Turd is not, in any way shape or form, guaranteeing this. But he sees a possible spike higher in gold and silver. In silver, a break over 42 should be a winner. In gold (see his stunning "reverse pennants"), a run overnight could spark a return to $1,900/oz and beyond.

I've never traded based on any person's forecast, but nobody grasps space and time in the near term like Brother Turd. Nobody. Between the puppetry of the CME mafia and various wafflers chattering on TV about the demise of metals, Turd Ferguson cuts through and reads the price action without peer.

I am still inclined toward scaling into AGQ and/or DGP here despite today's gain; DGP dipped to 60 just a few sessions ago. But the after hours spread is wide. AGQ 222.50/bid 222.43/ask 222.89, DGP 68.13/bid 68.11/ask 68.42.

Update 12:29 pm Couldn't help noticing that silver/AGQ has been taken down almost regularly the past week between 11 am and noon Eastern time. A somewhat similar price action exists in gold/DGP, just less drastic. Of course, as I notice this, the pattern/trend is probably done with. If it continues, then buying the dip at lunch time and selling the rip late morning may earn a few shekels. To buy more physical.

Why not just buy more physical now? I noted a few times recently that AGQ ran from 220 to 380 when spot silver went from 40 to (nearly) 50. A 74% gain versus a 25% gain. The math is simple, though new factors are present, like the tempered speculation in this post-5-margin-hikes era. Maybe AGQ tops out at 300. That's still a 37% gain. On balance, more fiat to buy more physical ... unless somehow the physical market surges. Can you see that happening with central banks and ordinary, fellow peons like me grabbing up hard metal? I can. For now I'm leaning toward a scale-in of paper silver and/or gold.

AGQ simply eaten alive between 11 am and noon lately


The lunchtime takedown isn't as severe in gold/DGP



Idling

1940 BMW 328

10:48 am (Hawaii) Got up to see the indices rally from the red and into green before the close. Spot gold and silver maintained the early-morning gains despite some minor selling. Volume overall is still weak and there is still no true direction, no wind behind the sails of the USS Armageddon and USS Print to Oblivion.

That's why I'm content to sit tight on cash. Not happy, though. While DGP trades at 68 and AGQ flirts with 225, I'd love to dip in just a bit, but with the market trading on the whims of alien techonology, aka High Frequency Trading machines and algorithmic cyborgs, peon retail traders (like me) are just runt prey.

Therefore, rather than be a tortoise in the middle of the highway, I'll stick to my guns. Fundamentally, there is no saving the banksters, which tells me FAZ will be at 100 sooner or later. It's trading at 52-53 today, perhaps finding a bottom and prepping for another run to 60, 70 or 80 again. Is the bottom in for Eurozone banks? Hardly. The toxins are impossible to remove without fiscal surgery and monetary chemotherapy. The bullshit comes to an end at some point whether I have my little position in FAZ or not.

Gold and silver have bypassed "nutcase" status. If slaves like myself think owning PMs is critical, how can I be insane when central banks are hoarding as much of them as possible? Why would massive short sellers take the hit over and over while spot gold runs above $1,900 an oz? The only question is price, not choice. Gold returned to about $1,700 briefly last week and is now at $1,835. There are gold and silver bugs who insist that just about any price is right before the rocket launch of the fall season, when India and other Asian countries go into festival mode and buy tons of jewelry. Coupled with global demand from behemoth buyers, there is no reasonable argument to be on the short side.

That alone, however, could keep gold and silver less exciting on a day-to-day, hour-by-hour basis. Without massive shorts getting burned (or winning occasionally), price action stabilizes. If the banksters have, indeed, gone long the PMs — remember JP Morgan reversing field to tout $2,500 gold a few weeks ago? — there aren't going to be a lot of competing shadows on the other side of the field.

Speaking of which, Dr. J (Jon Najarian) just said this on Fast Money:

"In any area of the world, India, China, the US, everybody's buying gold. People are scared. The volumes we saw, options volumes (in GLD) are up. There's less participation to the upside, but there's nobody (stopping) it, so we could float to the upside."

Much as I see the facts, still I can't chase DGP and AGQ here. But being completely out of these race cars (ultra ETFs) as gold and silver may be set to rebound higher off recent selloffs, the logical strategy may be to scale in. If not, idling is just fine.


Tit for tat



3:51 am (Hawaii) I've been awake through the night, but ignoring the market. Can't say that's a good thing, but it's no bad thing either, not with the big questions and major uncertainty about the global economy, i.e. destruction of paper currency. It is nice, though, to see spot gold and silver up as London approaches closing time. This fluctuation in silver between 39 and 42 would be a sensible consolidation. But gold's fluctuations are not reasonable, not with the demise of the euro and dollar, not with orderly rises and declines.

Because of this morning's spike higher, it will be a matter of time before the CME imposes a third margin requirement hike soon. It's just a delaying mechanism; gold is going higher not because anyone wants it to, but out of necessity. Gold can no sooner be held down while the dollar sinks (due to inflation/mega-printing of dollars) than any living creature needs air.

Update 4:00 am Brother Turd notes that PMs are higher this morning after CNBC interviewed a Chicago Fed voting member.


Monday, August 29, 2011

Stackin' and packin'


9:46 am (Hawaii) Of course there are things I'd do much differently if I could go back in time. One would be to have a more balanced approach to life. To saving. To investing. I'd have put some hard-earned dollars into physical precious metals. But it's useless to dwell on the past. Is silver still worth accumulating now? The answer for me is obvious, but 99% of the population will never go for the concept and reality of gold and silver as true money in the purest sense of VALUE.

My aim in putting my modest savings into precious metals is a deterrent, a defensive maneuver to protect the value. I don't assume the fiat dollars assessed to gold and silver will rise exponentially, though it is a real possibility. I just refuse to let my dollar sit in a bank with a putrid interest rate when there are alternatives like real money.

I played with my newest arrivals today. It was fun. Almost as fun as buying this stash a few Sundays ago when spot gold was at $1,660, just before the latest run to $1,917.






Monday cinema & library


Blogs
Toby Connor: Bear market rally has begun (Aug 29)
Reggie Middleton: Banking industry still looks dismal (Aug 29)
Harvey Organ: Minor raid on silver and gold (Aug 29)
Chris Duane (Silver Shield): The Treasury is coming! (May 17)

Vlogs
I Bank Coin: PPT hybrid score (Aug 30)
James Turk: Richard Poulden interview (Aug 29)
Endless Mountain: The Silver Log - Case for $120 XAG (Aug 29)
Keiser Report: Chocolate gold from Geneva (Aug 29)
Scrap Gold Business: 98% of sheeple don't want to face reality (Aug 29)
Scrap Gold Business: Gas grass or ass - No one rides for free (Aug 29)
Royal Metals Group: Silver, gold investment going mainstream (Aug 29)
SGT Report: Chris Duane (Silver Shield) (part 1) (part 2) (May 21)

Audio
Peter Schiff: Monday show (Aug 29)
King World News: Weekly metals wrap (Aug 27)

Reports

Video
Yahoo: Jim Bianco urges caution (Aug 29)

Metal bling

US Mint raises ASE proof 14%


10:32 am (Hawaii) I noted last night that the US Mint site had taken its American Eagle 1-oz Silver Proof Coin off the table to adjust the previous price of $59.95. My guess was that they'd move the price up to $64.95 and continue increasing over time at $5 increments, similar to what they did with the First Spouse gold coins.

Well, the new price is up today: $68.45. That's a 14% increase. I'm glad I got a few proofs, my first ever, while it was at the $59.95 price. But now I'm wishing I had more even though this increase is ridiculous. At $59.95, it felt cheap as spot silver rose from 37 to 44. But with spot silver back at 40, $68.45 has gone from a ridiculous premium to an unfathomable one: 70 PERCENT!

That's how it goes when emotion is involved, and emotion is involved because this is one hell of a beautiful coin. But enough is enough. No new ASE proofs for me, not for awhile.

Barometer: AAPL

8:33 am (Hawaii) Less than 90 minutes left in the session and the indices are up big. However, I'm not chasing here. AAPL is up to 389 — anybody remember the Steve Jobs retirement dip to 352 last week? — and that seems great. But look at the volume. Horrendous. Less than half of last week's trade, which tells me that traders and investors are cautious and it's mostly machines that are bidding price up and down in most equities.

What else is higher on very low volume? BIDU, GOOG, LULU, even LVS. But momentum vehicles like NFLX (slightly up) and GSVC (-2.1%) are also middling. This market looks and feels fake to me.

Financials are heavy green. My Debt Spiral list is entirely green, led by NBG (+36%) on the Greek bank news. FAZ is down nearly 11% to below 53. By my rule of thumb, FAZ has been a buy below 55 in the past month. But this is why I don't dip into these waters often. Anything can happen overnight, over a weekend, and finnies explode despite a real core of toxic assets. The roots of the system are rotting and dying, and nothing changes that in a week, a month, a year, maybe a decade. The will to stop this financial meteorite from destroying our monetary system as we know it just doesn't exist. In other words, I won't touch finnies, and when they run out of momo, I'll park a little bit in FAZ.

If 0% interest turns out to be QE3 and we have another meltup-on-low-volume rally, I'll probably miss a chunk of the gains. But fundamentally, what has changed? Not a single constructive solution back home. As Brother Turd Ferguson forecasted, with London on holiday, thin trading has spot gold and silver down slightly today. DGP is down 3.5% (64.98) and AGQ is down 4.7% (213.73). I'm prepared to buy on this dip, not sure if I'll do it yet. I remain all cash for now.

Update 9:27 am As I noted earlier, thin volume today has a very sketchy feel for a lot of watchers. Here's a note from Karl Denninger at Market Ticker.

Nobody is talking about this. That's 27 - twenty-seven contracts - on the bid at 1146.75. During the trading day. There's less than a thousand up and down the stack through the entire visible portion.

This is a tiny fraction of normal liquidity and those sub-100 numbers are more-akin to what you expect in the middle of the night when everyone's sleeping!

All that's left is the computers. The humans have gone home.

Sunday, August 28, 2011

I remember when ...


9:01 pm (Hawaii) I remember when First Spouse 1/2 oz coins from the US Mint were only $929. I waffled and waffled and decided, no. I am not paying $929, or a rate of $1,858 per oz of gold, when spot gold price was actually around $1600 or so.

Eventually, I was shocked to see price rise to $979 for those same First Spouse gold coins. Then $1,029. Now, it's $1,054. Yeah. Holy shit. But that was over the past few weeks.

Tonight, I took a look at the site and notice another shocker: ASE 1-oz proofs, which had sold for $59.95, are off the table. The site now says, "This product is temporarily unavailable for product repricing."

Product repricing? The product was already 50% above spot (silver) price. My guess is that it'll return with a new price of $64.95. It'll make me wish I'd collected far more proofs at $59.95. I know silver is silver and numismatic value is debatable in a hyperinflationary environment. Even the First Spouse coins at these prices are nowhere near a 50% premium. But proofs are pretty, really pretty. I'm probably not done with getting a few more.

Friday, August 26, 2011

Weekend cinema & library (updated Sun 1130 pm HST)


Blogs
(new) Chris Capre: Has gold unwound its overbought status? (Aug 28)
(new) Golden Truth: Idea that gold is in bubble is idiotic (Aug 28)
(new) Turd Ferguson: Preparing for Sunday (Aug 27)
(new) SGS: COT report, Perth Mint (Aug 27)
Turd Ferguson: Ahead of an interesting weekend (Aug 26)
Chris Duane: Silver Shield's final warning (Aug 25)

Vlogs
(new) stellaconcepts: Mike Maloney - Up close and personal (Aug 28)
Chris Duane (Silver Shield): A quick preview of the greatest truth never told (Aug 27)
Scrap Gold Business: How not to get scammed selling your gold (Aug 27)
(new) Jim Comiskey: (pm) Daily market insights - Metal futures (Aug 26)
(new) Jim Comiskey: (am) Daily market insights - Metal futures (Aug 26)
Heretic Productions: Silver! Final warning! (Aug 26)
> Silver Shield reading
Bull or Bear Report: Gold just fine while paper storm still coming (Aug 26)
Endless Mountain: Five stages in investing (Aug 26)
Rudy Martin: The calm before the M&A storm (Aug 26)
(new) Economics Cafe: Silver story with silver lining, part 1 (Aug 25)
(new) Peter Schiff: Radio show (Aug 25)
> 1 hour, 17 minute segment

Audio
(new) King World News: Dan Norcini (Aug 27)
Lew Rockwell: Ron Paul is first real peace candidate (part 1) (part 2) (Aug 27)
Jason Burack: Chris Marchese interview (Aug 27)
SGT Report: Bill Murphy, GATA (part 1) (part 2) (Aug 26)
Kerry Lutz: Chris Duane (Aug 25)

Blog commentary

Reports

Video
archbus: EAF 2011 - Hell of a life (Aug 26)
(new) Jim Cramer: Buy gold (Aug 25)

Metal bling
ArgentPur1OZ: un ultime franc (Aug 27)

NOS Journal: Laila Abid



in & out


5:49 am (Hawaii) In DGP before the end of after hours trading yesterday at 63.63. Sold at 64.62 this morning. Just got up a few minutes ago, missed the mini-run to 65+, but a little profit is fine with me before the day ends. Just not willing to be in a position over the weekend, especially PMs, with a Brit holiday on Monday and the threat of more margin requirement hikes in gold.

I'd rather wait it out, let the margin hikes hit spot price (even if there's no hike, the effect could be the same) and get a far better price.

Brother Turd Ferguson has been spot on of late with his outlook in PMs. A master, really. He could be wrong from time to time, but his perspective on the day-to-day is captivating. Indices are up modestly (0.8% to 1.6%). No reason to expect QE3 from the Helicopter later today but who knows how that turns out. Heading back to bed for now.

GSVC is above 17 now on yesterday's news of investment in Twitter. It's nearing that 19+ top. FAZ is down more than 1% though most banks on my Debt Spiral list are in red.

Update 6:06 am Okay I totally missed Bernanke's speech. Dow was -220 and I didn't know it. It was a 1-minute chart of AAPL that got my attention. (My TV is off and is staying off for now.) AAPL shot from 372 to 381 at roughly 10:15 am Eastern. It didn't make a difference for me. I still wanted out of DGP at some point today. But it explains how DGP ran to 65.50 or so.


With no pronouncements or hints of a formalized QE3 or hidden facsimile, it's fine to be in cash.

Update 8:34 am DGP ran to 66.50 or so. Nice run by gold (1806) and silver. Both are running higher with the indices, which I didn't expect. That won't last forever.

Thursday, August 25, 2011

Thursday cinema & library (updated 1030 pm HST)


Blogs
(new) Jake Gint: Hello darkness my old friend (Aug 26)
(new) Jim Sinclair: Selling against the angels expected (Aug 25)
> "For heaven's sake, stop barfing into weakness. Stop selling weakness and buying strength. That is a kindergarten type error."
(new) Monty Guild: Market commentary (Aug 25)
(new) SGS: WWSD (Aug 25)
(new) Le Fly: Prepare to get (Jackson) holed (Aug 25)
(new) Le Fly: The great showdown is near (Aug 25)
(new) Le Fly: Position update: GSVC (Aug 25)
(new) Le Fly: The Buffett deal is defensive (Aug 25)
Chris Duane (Silver Shield): Silver Shield's final warning (Aug 25)
> "We are on the knife's edge of a major shift that will make silver untouchable if you do not secure your metal right now."
Turd Ferguson: (pm) Looking better (Aug 25)
Turd Ferguson: (am) This ain't horseshoes (Aug 25)

Vlogs
James Turk: Peter Spina interview at GATA (Aug 25)
Endless Mountain: Trading in paper rectangles (Aug 25)
Endless Mountain: Three silver charts I rely on the most (Aug 25)
Storm Clouds Gathering: Why we left the US (permanently) (Aug 25)
Christopher Greene: Buffett Bashing 101 (Aug 25)
Christopher Greene: Buffett strikes again! (Aug 25)
Keiser Report: Chris Martenson (Aug 24)
Wide Awake News: The 'LIE' of the storm (Aug 24)

Audio

Reports
Rick Munarriz: There's no place like Zillow (Aug 25)

Video

Blog commentary

Metal bling

Level headed


11:52 am (Hawaii) It's too bad I didn't trust the technicals, even 24 hours before Jackson Hole. Shortly before I fell asleep early this morning (4 am or so Hawaii time), I saw FAZ between 56 and 57. What I failed to see (I was dozing before that) is that it was below 53 to open. That should have and would have triggered alarm bells in my head. FAZ has consistently moved up after dipping that low for the past several weeks. Clockwork? Maybe.

This morning's buy-in by Buffett did the real work for FAZ dip-buyers. I don't have the total conviction necessary to scale in below 55, but it would've been a considerable possibility. I lean more toward staying status quo (all cash) until or through the Hole. But whoever bought FAZ at 55 or 57, watching it climb to 63 was a nice victory. Now trading at 61.50 after hours. I still believe FAZ goes to 100 eventually. By then, many of the large banksters in Euroland will be on the canvas, woozy and unable to continue. They'll get bought out by the biggest sharks in the industry.

AGQ is at a fascinating level — 220 — once again. I've noted before that a run from 220 to the previous high of 382 occurred when spot silver went from 40 to 49+. That's a 74% gain in AGQ and 25% gain in spot price. I don't know what AGQ does here; it's already gone from 250 (last week) to 200 (today's low). But 220 remains my magic level in AGQ, and depending on what transpires tomorrow, it may be the right time to re-enter a small position.

DGP was beastly as gold bounce off the 1700 level. DGP closed yesterday at 63.35, fell to 60.33 at today's open, dipped to 59.50 and there was reason for traders to be fearful. For physical gold (and silver) owners, it was another bump in the road. DGP rallied through the day and is at 64.00, near it's high. This is the level I entered at last week before the run to 72+, so my attention is piqued. (I got out at 68+.)

While I was away very early in the day, watching DGP below 60, of course I thought, well, this might be a rare opportunity to get in below a key level. But, I passed. Scaling in would've been okay too. But I knew I was about to hit the sack, and leaving stop-loss orders to the slimy tentacles of this market does not appeal to me.

DZZ was in good territory early, naturally, hitting a high of 5.19. All downhill from there. Same with ZSL. With the indices down (DJ -170.89, Nas -48.06, S&P -18.33) nearly 2% each by the close, volume was low and momentum was one-directional rather than chaotic. In fact, there was a point early in the session when all three indices were trading just a few points up or down as if this were a 19th century market.

Back to the banksters. BAC was at nearly 9.00 early, but sold off and is at 7.62 (+9%) today on a deal that the TV chatterheads are saying is a lopsided deal in Buffet's favor (of course). Funny how FAZ benefited from this and the Euro banks tanked. Clearly, the market smells the b.s. and steers clear more than ever.

This is what the market is saying more and more:

• Bernanke will say little but that he has his weapons on hand to maneuver when necessary. Some say he has only one bullet left. This would leave the market yawning, as the moves this week have priced in this expectation.

• Bernanke could say absolutely nothing, mention no bias toward action, and the market (and precious metals) would tank. He has never leaned toward austerity. Ever. Pure Keynesian. This would hurt both the bulls and bears. Unlikely, but you never know.

• Bernanke could say that a renewed, global, coordinated effort is underway to restructure debt, create a new form of transaction (currency?) and include the possibility of a truly sound fiscal system, i.e. backed by a combination of commodities (gold?). This is almost an impossibility since he prefers printing dollars to all other options. It's almost as if he's been told from above (not necessarily Obama) that if he does not print dollars, the coming explosion in unemployed ragers (people about to go off unemployment checks) would decimate cities, and there isn't enough security to contain a nationwide series of riots and looting.

So, how can he not print more fiat? Today's move in gold is a tell. The market knows Helicopter Ben has no choice, and if someone else were in his shoes yodeling to the hills that there are other options besides fractional reserve banking, that fella would be extinguished promptly.

In other words, the system is focked, I'm glad some of my dollars are now hard metal, and there is some peace of mind in being unmarried to stocks at this turbulent, unpredictable time.

Note: GSVC up strong today on news of investment developments, including one in Twitter. Le Fly has noted that this was coming, and GSVC is up 14% to 16.05. Makes me wish I hadn't sold at 12+, but I won't chase here. If the market gets chaotic tomorrow, it could easily sell back down to 14 and lower. I'd love to scale back in below 14. Downside in a worst-case post-Jackson Hole scenario could be 12. Best case would be a quick run to 19 (all-time high) and beyond.


Buffett can't save the banksters


4:06 am (Hawaii) No matter what "they" do, they can't save this market while it is still filled with toxins. Buffet has purchased, what, five or six billion dollars worth of BAC preferred shares. This prolongs the inevitable, but for now, that has most financials in green this morning. Yet, the indices have drifted from break even to negative. I have no hate for Buffett. In fact, I'll be thanking him maybe. FAZ is now down to 56+ and once it hits 55, it'll be at support. 55 is where FAZ drifts to before some Euro bank craps out a load of bad news once every two or three weeks.

Not planning to automatically buy FAZ at 55, but now that price is on the radar thanks to Buffett, I'm keeping a close eye on it.

Gold and silver are down again, and I don't even care what the spot price is. I'm all cash, saving in physical and not selling that. DZZ was at 4.90 or so after hours yesterday, was at 4.95 in premarket today, and has gone as high as 5.19 already. Now at 5.04.

DGP (60.87) and AGQ (206.09) are at attractive levels, but that's not enough for me to scale in yet. I'm content to wait through tomorrow's Jackson Hole bizness. The lack of stress from being untethered to this space alien machine market is refreshing.

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Holy Apple


12:52 pm (Hawaii) It's already been a tumultuous day. Now this?


AAPL is trading flat in the past 10 minutes since the news was reported at 375.50. Never wanted to see this day come, but health is and always should be top priority. Wishing Mr. Jobs the best.

Update 1:01 pm Okay there it goes. AAPL traded down to 351+ in the past 4 minutes. Bouncing to 356+. Jobs is recommending Tim Cook as his replacement, but really, this drop is no surprise. There's nobody quite like Jobs. I think AAPL makes lower highs and lower lows for the next two sessions. Might be a bargain before the week is done, especially if Bernanke says zippo.

Business Insider: The life and awesomeness of Steve Jobs (Aug 24)
Business Insider: Steve Jobs' letter to Apple (Aug 24)

It's official: CME mafia raises gold margin

11:57 am (Hawaii) Not that it matters to a lot of traders and investors, but the CME mafia made it official. Bloomberg reported 24 minutes ago that the margin requirement in gold was raised 27%.


I'm in cash, have my little sack of physical gold and silver, so my stress is almost nonexistent. In fact, if the CME mafia has its way and spot price in gold plunges off a cliff to below 1700, I'm ready to re-enter. Right now DZZ is holding at 4.90-4.94. I noticed it climb to 4.94 a little while ago, but that's the extent of it. If the market were really surprised by the CME mafia move, DZZ would be well over 5.00 by now.

Wednesday cinema & library (updated Thur 2 am HST)

Waimea South Mechanics Library Institute
Tasman District, New Zealand

Blogs
(new) Jesse's Cafe Americain: 'Looks like an option expiration week' (Aug 24)
(new) Dan Norcini: HUI once again retreats below 580 (Aug 24)
(new) SGS: Talk about timing! (Aug 24)
> Charles Schultz
Turd Ferguson: (pm) Turd tips his hat (updated for margin hike) (Aug 24)
Le Fly: The refiners are buys (Aug 24)
Jim Willie: Panic and anxiety swirl a storm (Aug 24)
> "Prepare for $2100 gold by January, and $60 silver by January. Like last year, the months of September through January will be ones for the history books."
(new) Philosopher's Stone: US Mint suspends all numismatic (eagles) gold coins (Aug 23)
> "Proves no physical gold to be had? No silver eagles available either."
The Fundamental View: Time to take a closer look at gold (Aug 23)
Gary North: Roubini, Marx and Keynes (Aug 20)

Vlogs
(new) Man of Truth: On the beach for 30 minutes in Carmel (Aug 24)
(new) Silver Futurist: Gold, silver way down, what is the fair price? (Aug 24)
(new) george4title: Becoming an economic nomad: G4T in Vegas (Aug 24)
David Morgan: 10 rules for silver investing (Aug 24)
H1INC: $8000 gold? $500 silver? (Aug 24)
Endless Mountain: BAC technical analysis (Aug 24)
Endless Mountain: The Silver Log - More lower prices (Aug 24)
Keiser Report: The fainting bankers of Wall St (Aug 24)
(new) Silver Futurist: $1900 gold!!! Now Suze Orman is saying sell gold (Aug 22)
Larry Edelson: Video market update (Aug 22)
James Turk: Egon von Greyerz interview (Aug 6)

Blog commentary
Turd Ferguson: Bottom projection? (Aug 24)
lakedweller2: Horror story of the minute (Fidelity) (Aug 24)

Audio
King World News: Peter Schiff (Aug 24)
> "50 is going to become the new support (for silver)."

Reports

Video
(new) NASA: Hurricane Irene from ISS (Aug 24)



Flat indices, metals trashed


6:09 am (Hawaii) Well, this is the other side of my "late" sell of DGP yesterday. I waited until I was down almost $4 from the top to unload my modest position at 68.57. It continued lower into the 67+ area, then came back to 68+ by the close. Today? DGP is struggling to stay above 64, which is the level I re-entered at last week. Glad I'm out.

You can be as bullish on gold as you want, but human nature is what it is. A huge run will lead to profit-taking sooner or later. So I'm fine just sidelining and being prepared for the next timely entry point. I don't mind re-entering a bit late. I just have no interest in jumping back in while the momentum is clearly still downward.

Besides the PM spot prices and ETFs, miners are getting head-slammed. XG is at 9.10, up from its low of the day (8.76). It's down 8.1%. GORO (-7.6%), UBG (-7%), EXK (-6.9%) all at the bottom of my Metals list (19% green, 81% red). AGQ is at 214+, down roughly 36 bucks since Monday. SLW, which had been hawwt, is down 6% to 36.45.

One of my favorite bloggers/traders of all time, StockGuy22, has been short gold since near the top through DZZ, which I tried to trade last week with no fortunate result. DZZ is above 4.60 today. It closed at 4.34 yesterday and opened at the same price, oddly enough. It's up 7.1% to top the Metals list. DUST, ZSL, GLL, DGZ all lead the list.



My Regular watch list is 21% green, 79% red. Quite broad while the indices are all less than 1% down. Not a bullish sign at all following yesterday's 300+ gain in the Dow. This info about $1.5 billion leaving GLD notes that GLD had surpassed SPY as the largest ETF. I saw one analyst mock this event, as if SPY were untouchable. It just felt to me like doubters who mocked AAPL as its market cap began to swell a few years ago.

Gold itself has moved up because of reality, not because of fantasy. It's movements have sometimes reminded me of AAPL, especially the dropdowns after reaching new highs. Swings. The obvious difference is price control via margin hikes, like the one in Shanghai — making it two hikes in one month.

No significant news today. I'm not watching any TV, just surfing the net with a view of the sunrise. There's little point to staying exposed to every bit of white noise until Jackson Hole in two days. Even then, if Helicopter Ben says nothing of essence, I'm fine staying 100% cash. Like AAPL, there are times to wait out the downswing. There are times to sit out before entering the water again. This time with paper gold, it's the latter for me.


Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Tuesday cinema & library (updated 7 pm HST)

Sinclair Library, University of Hawaii at Manoa (1956)

Blogs
Le Fly: 70% in (Aug 23)
Le Fly: Inventories stupid (Aug 23)
Le Fly: Nervous Nellies (Aug 23)
Turd Ferguson: (pm) It's good to be Turd (Aug 23)
Turd Ferguson: (pm) On shaky ground (Aug 23)
Turd Ferguson: So, what's next? (Aug 22)
Turd Ferguson: Relief (Aug 22)
> Leeb cites Chinese industrial demand

Vlogs
(new) BrotherJohnF: Silver update - Chinese chess (Aug 23)
Time Monk Radio: Jim Rogers, Turd Ferguson (part 1) (part 2) (part 3) (part 4) (part 5) (Aug 23)
Max Keiser: Rick Ackerman interview (Aug 23)
streetmoney21: From StreetMoney21 to Texas (Aug 23)
H1INC: Daytraders love welfare (Aug 23)
GuildF40: Libya 4.6 million oz of gold (Aug 23)
Endless Mountain: The Silver Log (Aug 23)
Keiser Report: Bankers & Aliens (Aug 23)
streetmoney21: Pressure from every angle (Aug 22)
H1INC: Too big not to fail (Aug 22)

Blog commentary

Audio
King World News: Jim Rickards (Aug 23)

> Rumor mill
(new) CNBC: Options action: Disney (Aug 22)
Video
Metal bling