Showing posts with label PowerBook. Show all posts
Showing posts with label PowerBook. Show all posts

Tuesday, July 31, 2007

So why don't I get more BIDU?

There are a core of stocks that I've looked at, studied, even (ahem) almost worshipped over the past few months.

I'm not proud about it. I've spent more time looking at their assets than I have with human beings sometimes. One of them is Google. Another is Baidu. I could not recommend a more sound stock than Google. So the Co spent a ton of money to hire key people near and afar. They missed "expectations" by $.08. They don't even guide anyone regarding expectations, so I doubt they're overly concerned about near-term fluctuations in a stock that they'll never spli, a la Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway stock.

Baidu? The revenues still don't justify the market cap and stock, but that would be like quibbling over a young Babe Ruth and his growing weight problem. Can the guy pitch? Can he hit? Baidu is going to be a hall of famer one day, and it doesn't hurt to have your friendly neighborhood goverment backing you up.

Beyond those factors, nobody can really justify or deny a valuation of the stock. Well, there's Citigroup's Jason Breuschke, who downgraded BIDU at $197, then upgraded the stock at $215. He told TheStreet.com's Vishesh Kumar that China's warp-speed growth could eventually give Baidu a market cap of $35 to $45 billion. That's a share price of $1,500.

And yet, when I decided to enter the market and get some shares at the close today, Baidu and Google were shunned.

Early in the day, I kept my promise to self and got more Nintendo shares. The ones I should've got at $36, but instead got at $52 a few weeks ago, and at $62 today. It felt right. Maybe the timing will prove to be a mistake in this choppy, brutal market, but Nintendo is No. 1 on my list of best growth stocks. A buy based on due diligence never feels wrong.

After the bell, I also got more Apple on the dip, i.e. conspiracy trap, at $134. It wasn't the bottom of today's pullback, but I'm not complaining. Apple is my favorite Co in the world. Their PowerBook brought consistency and quality to an important part of my life when all other wanna-bes sucked royally. I don't even own an iPod or iPhone, but I know greatness when it is in front of me. Steve Jobs was made for Apple and vice-versa.

I also picked up a few shares of another company for my nephew. I've promised him that I'd buy stock for him on a monthly basis. This month, after studying the fundamentals, he wanted Under Armor. More than margins and revenues, he's sold on the quality of UA's products. I just regret that I didn't pay attention to the stock until the day after UA blew out earnings expectations. At $61, time will tell whether I got the shares at a real discount. UA raised guidance for the rest of the year, like CROX did last week, so I have reason to expect a win here.

Go figure. My nephew has stock in Nintendo and Under Armor. Pretty good for an 11-year-old.

Now only if his uncle can summon the will to get more BIDU and start a position in GOOG.

Pupule Paul is long BIDU, NTDOY.PK, AAPL and UA.

Wednesday, July 25, 2007

Candy Apple?

Is this the Apple that longs never really anticipated?

Is the whole marketing drive for the iPhone merely a candy bar campaign that rests on paper mache flooring. No parachute for longs?

Naaah. The numbers are compelling once again for AAPL, and though it traded as low as $129 after being halted in the after-hours market, buyers are aplenty. The stock is bouncing up and is at $135 now on the broad strength of today's earnings report.

The iPhone numbers will bear out, not just yet, but with a full quarter in place. Apple still maintains that 1 million units is a solid expectation for the most widely-recognized new product in technology. Whatever the short-term fluctuations, who doesn't think AAPL will trade at $200 by Christmas time?

More importantly, why the hell did I sell at $92?

Disclaimer: Pupule Paul, who loves his aging PowerBook, has a very small slice of sweet Apple pie.

Saturday, July 21, 2007

Apple drip? Woulda been simply genius

For several months now, I've kept a mix of faux portfolios based around Apple Inc.

One is a drip version of AAPL investment. What would you have if you'd invested $1,200 monthly into AAPL shares since the start of the iPod era? It's not a whim, of course. There are quite a few investors who had the wherewithal to get into Apple when they saw their kids go bonkers for iPods, iTunes, et al.

So, with a $1,200 monthly investment in AAPL since October, 2004, and counting a $12.99 monthly commission would look like this: 726 shares at a total cost of $41,239 would have turned into $108,243. That's a return on investment of 162 percent.

That first drip in October 2004 would've turned $1,200 into $7,618. Last July's pullback would've been a great buying opportunity. While Cramerica would've sold before the dip, Apple longs would've bought more shares at $52. That month's $1,200 would be worth $3,306 today.

Not bad at all. The beauty of an investment like Apple is that it's the prime hands-on stock. You touch the PowerBook, the MacBook, the iPod, buy songs from iTunes, and yes, own the iPhone. You know the quirks, the weak spots and the greatness that comes with owning an Apple product. You especially know the costs, from expensive-as-hell monitors to the $79 adaptor. Tough on the wallet, nice in your portfolio.

Of course, a great company doesn't always have a great stock, and vice-versa. Apple is that anomaly that strokes the imagination of consumers and investors alike. How much further will AAPL go? As long as Steve Jobs is in charge, there is no hurdle he can't leap over.

Even without any clear plan to leave an imprint in China, Apple seems poised to be money in the bank, at least for those smart enough to hold their shares.

Disclaimer: Sadly, Pupule Paul has only a small slice of Apple pie.

Saturday, July 14, 2007

Cool Apple in so many ways

Maybe this is an undeniable sign of a bubble.

Comparing a stock to a work of art — no, just considering a stock such a glorious creation of beauty — has to be grounds for insanity. And yet, that's what AAPL is. From the PowerBook I first bought three years ago, to the Apple computers my old company bought for us back in 1993, all the way to the iPod and iTunes, and now, the iPhone, what else can possibly counter any pro-Apple argument?

It's not even just about the revenues from these products. It's also about the Cool Factor. The Effective Factor. Once I got that PowerBook, my days with Hitachi laptops were long, long gone. I've never had stupid freeze-ups and glitches with my PowerBook as I did with the Hitachi and another since-forgotten laptop from a generic has-been company.

No, I don't like paying a pretty penny for my Apple products, but in the end, they are worth every penny. Quality is worth that extra cost. I'm not alone in this belief, obviously.

Whether Apple climbs to $200, as longtime AAPL bull Georges Yared argues, is not really an issue for me. In fact, when I look at my mock portfolios, three of them are filled only with AAPL stock. Sort of like a DRP program. No matter the swoon of summer 2006. No matter the minor blips of a few failed products. The power of the Co and the stock are substantial.

It is as close as we can get to the proverbial money in the bank, especially for those of us who bought early in the year on the anticipation of the iPhone's success. All of Apple's innovation and commitment to Cool are unmatched, really. It doesn't matter whether they are the originators of a concept. They know how to take it and turn it into ubercool.

A $200 stock? That would make new lovers of art near and far.

Disclaimer: Pupule Paul owned Apple at $93, foolishly sold at $92, and re-entered at $122 with a tiny slice of Apple pie. He is truly humbled.