Top 25: #11 Nintendo

At 55.40, NTDOY.PK is still somewhat cheap. I don't see a bounce anytime soon, however. The stock tends to go limp in February and March, understandably, while holiday shopping season is long gone. Still, it's a stellar company with a killer app product. Love the Wii!

The RIMM swing trade: standing still

Research in Motion traded above 123 in pre-market, opened at 122, sold off to 116 and is about to close at 118. Should I have sold? Perhaps. Going from sub-100 to 123 is a hefty gain in any language. My long position entry point is 103 (average). My swing trade shares entry point is 120. So I'm holding on through the selling.

In hindsight, selling at the open (122) and buying back swing shares at 118 would've made sense. The market has a chance to stay bullish for a few days, perhaps through the final third of December.

Nice to see Apple rally, now at 123, less than a buck off its intra-day high. If I buy more shares of either, it'll be Apple especially because I have a slightly smaller position in AAPL than RIMM.

If not Apple, then definitely more Nintendo. Have not added more NTDOY.PK shares in three months or so. My nephew loves his Guitar Hero on Wii. Why not get Activision (maker of Guitar Hero)? Activision is peaking and my intolerance for flitty, fickle smaller cap stocks won't let me get in. If the Fed gets busy with a drastic rate move, I'll consider another ride with a small- or mid-cap retail. Otherwise, no, no, no.

The vomit is still fresh from roller-coaster rides on Crocs, lululemon athletica, China Digital TV, etc. If there is a next time, I'm banking the 50% and 70% profits.

Nintendo grooves through the 60s

Nintendo's quick, sweet stroll through the 60s may be ending soon, but it won't be forgotten. The stock has moved in somewhat similar fashion to CROX, moving in "boxes," as Nicolas Darvas would have said, and punching through to the upper 60s is fun to see.

The stock is idling, consolidating at 69 now. Today's positive action in the dollar is great for NTDOY.PK longs, but that's beside the point.

Nintendo Wii Rehabilitates Injured Soldiers, Stroke Victims

... therapists at the Sister Kenny Rehabilitation Institute at Abbott Northwestern Hospital are seeing great results among stroke patients who play 'Wii Tennis.' In addition to actually exercising the patient back to health, the therapists note that the Wii makes the process of rehabilitation more fun. According to WCCO, the U.S. Army has also also hopped aboard the Wii Train, testing the system out on injured soldiers in Landstuhl, Germany to help them regain their strength.

So many positive things are coming about because of a one-of-a-kind technological wonder known as the Wii. Add the DS, in-house video games, and the megatonage of new games this holiday season for the Wii, and Nintendo is a happy stock. And I am a happy long.

Nintendo Wants To Give You Some Jackets For Your Wii

Fils-Aime talks

The San Jose Mercury News seems to have as good a connection with Nintendo as any newspaper in America. Today, they released a Q&A with Nintendo America's chief.

Mercury News: Nintendo to tap valley for ideas

Q Are you already planning your replacement for the Wii?

A You know, our hardware group, literally as soon as the system's out the door, they're already thinking about what's next. That's true for any of our platforms.

Finally, The Sims meets the Wii

I started writing about this colossal combination months ago, as a former fan of The Sims. The Wii is the logical, perfect console for the game, even with all of the game's flaws. (Yeah, it shouldn't take 45 minutes to use the toidy, I think.) Aside from the child-oriented MySims characters (Rated E for Everyone), I'm waiting on more grown-up friendly fare. So this is the new development.

Gamespot: The Sims 2: Castaway

Sounds promising, fun premise, but I'd still like to see more. I'd rate myself an 80 out of 100 in terms of my affection for the game. If EA can come up with more twists, or even some of the exisiting titles, in Wii console form, I think it'll take off. (The Sims 2: Pets for Wii was released in April.) I'm bullish on EA, but more so on NTDOY.PK, of course. The technology will almost certainly improve beyond our imaginations, so I think just about every sport, every hand-eye coordination activity could end up as a Wii game. It could cater to fans of baseball (already on the market) to GTA to knitting. Imagine what the billion-dollar adult entertainment industry would do with Wii technology. The potential is ginormous (gigantic and enormous), which is why I view the Wii as a killer app with almost no peer relative to its industry.

Even without more developments with The Sims — EA is in early development of The Sims 3, supposedly — I'm expecting a very merry Wii Christmas.

Nintendo finally stepping up?

Nintendo is promising an "unprecedented" supply of Wii consoles for the holiday season in the U.S.

I'll believe it when it happens. Up to now, the Co has reiterated an inability to increase production again and again. Longs like myself could not help but wonder, what the hell? Does Nintendo want to satisfy demand or not? Read the quick summary.

Afterdawn.com: Nintendo promises large Wii supply for holiday season in North America

If this is true and Nintendo comes through, I'll be content. But I am not holding my breath. Why hold back a great product for so long in the first place?

Wii, Wine and Dine

Hmmm ... Wii and Wine parties?

Seeking Alpha: Wii Parties Fun for Nintendo Shareholders

With our without the beverages, I can see this as a trend. Last month, I saw my brother and his in-laws go bonkers for all kinds of games playing on a Wii. The kids loved it, too.

At 55, the stock is trading below it's 13-day EMA and SMA, and just a touch above its 50-day averages. A strong yen and weak dollar aren't helping, but the Co is aggressively marketing its category killing product.

Isn't it just a matter of time before Apple and Nintendo combine forces to make handheld-device history?

CNOOC, Nintendo make some noise

CNOOC, my favorite Asian oil and natural gas company, bought a 15% state in China Power New Energy Development today (Aug. 24). I don't know a thing about the latter company, but the deal sent its stock up 8% in Hong Kong.

There's talk that CNOOC and its goliath competitor, PetroChina, will report lower earnings, but that hasn't stopped the stock of CNOOC from soaring in the past two sessions.

Another favored Asian company of mine, Nintendo, traded up 2.2% to 54800¥ in Tokyo. The ADRs in the states tend to mirror the Tokyo shares, so the conversion is $59.13. That would be a gain of $1.33 for Friday's market. Holy Wii, Batman!

When titans clash: Apple vs. Nintendo?

Looks like a certainty that two great companies, Apple and Nintendo, are heading for a duel in the handheld game wars.

The New York Post's Damon Brown wrote about this on Sunday. If you haven't read his piece, go for it. As a fan of both companies, it's a must.

How far can the Nintendo DS go? What's next for the iPhone? I think the either (or both) would be even more addicting if it had Madden NFL and NCAA '08 games built in.

I still think when The Sims meets the Wii, we'll be scratching the surface of interactive motion-detection technology on a social-networking level.

Pupule Paul is long AAPL and NTDOY.PK.

Wii had a good ol' time

Long day, driving to Mililani, then Kaneohe, then Waianae, back to Mililani, and finally home.

Why? Football mug shots and the birthday celebration of my 1-year-old twin niece and nephew. The football photo stuff is something I've done this for most of the last 17 years, and today was no different. What was I doing taking football photos on a Sunday? I don't call those shots. The teams set the dates and we show up. That's life in the sports media.

But the end of the day was superb for me from the standpoint of a Nintendo shareholder. (I know I hold ADRs, not shares, but what would that make me? An ADRholder? Come on.) I got to see my nephews and sisters in law battle it out after dinner. Tennis. Bowling, BASEBALL. (My sis-in-law Kelly throws a helluva splitter, man!) And they did it all with a Wii on my brother's cool big-screen plasma TV. They worked up a sweat, almost inspiring me to participate.

Then I remembered my bulging gut, which has covered up my once-pristine 6-pack, and my overall fatigue after a long week of work. I rested and enjoyed the essence of Wii excellence and marvelled at the genuine joy my extended family got from this unique product. Once we see new video games flood the market specifically targeted for play on the Wii, my Nintendo ADRs will do a happy dance.

Nice way to end the weekend. Totally forgot about the tumultuous market ride. Whatever that was.

An excellent read by Howard Schnedier of the Washington Post about his Wii boxing experience here.

Pupule Paul is long NTDOY.PK.

Wii still reigns over discounted PS3, Xbox

Yup, I'm a sucker for those colorful, cool graphs about my favorite companies. Sort of like those birds that like to collect a million items for their nests just because they're shiny.

Max Freiert's piece on Seeking Alpha breaks down the latest news in the console wars. Nintendo is still king thanks to the Wii, even with the price cut for the PS3. The graphs by complete.com tell the story quite nicely.

Pupule Paul is long NTDOY.PK.

Game on: GME bounces back

Earnings (Q2) will finally be out for Gamestop (GME) on August 23, but bulls are on the rampage today.

Since hitting a mid-day high of 44 on July 10, shares stalled and fell to a mid-day low of $37.55 on Friday. Why? The no-show of Take-Two's giant seller, Grand Theft Auto, for the coming holiday season.

Today, shares are up nearly 6% to $42.94. The catalyst? It could be today's announcement of Monday Night Madness, a promotion that gives stores a chance to host parties on August 13, the release day for Madden NFL '08.

That's a catalyst? Perhaps. It's definitely a quick response to the GTA bad news. Maybe the driver, no pun intended, was just today's announcement about the date for Q2 earnings.

I like Gamestop, though my video-game playing days are long behind me. The only game I play is Madden, and that's only when I'm hanging with my nephew. The Wii has filtered into my consciousness, though, and might be a buy for me come Christmas time. When the influx of new games for the Wii hits the shelves at Gamestop, longs will be happier than ever. So will I, a Nintendo bull.

Gamestop's reliance on game makers is a bit unnerving, so I'll stay on the sideline and focus on companies that don't have bricks and mortar.

Pupule Paul is long NTDOY.PK and has no position in GME.

Nintendo guru to unveil new characters in 2008

This has been a tough day, a stressful one, and not just because of the volatile market. So, a little fun is in order.

Nintendo genius Shigeru Miyamoto sat down recently and talked with Dean Takahashi of the San Jose Mercury News. In the transcript of the interview, Miyamoto shared news about new characters coming in 2008.

For fans of Nintendo games and consoles, and Nintendo stock, it's a must-read. Take a break, enjoy some info from the guru Nintendo's fun core.

Pupule Paul is long NTDOY.PK.

How far can the Wii go?

They use the Wii in gyms. Real gyms.

According to this story at Gaming Today, actual gym members at Studeo55 in Vancouver use the Wii for a workout. Boxing, tennis, bowling, they're all practical.

I just wonder what'll happen when The Sims is available on Wii.

Rumorville: No Blu-ray for Wii

Between Blu-rays and Wiis and all things techno in between, it's fascinating.

The latest squashed rumor was about Nintendo R&D using the Wii as a device to watch movies via Blu-ray technology. According to docadamsaudio.com's account of a GameHead interview, someone outside the Co stumbled into the R&D department at Nintendo and all heck broke loose.

Sounds too much like something out of a 1970s Kikaida-Dr. Gill-Dr. Komyoji encounter.

In any event, Nintendo of America chief Reggie Fils-Aime promises a "surprise" in September. Oh well. I won't be holding my breath. I care more about the Co's stock than its games and technology. That could change, however. That Wii thingamajig is truly hypnotizing.

Better than Xmas for Apple longs

Kids can have Christmas. Apple longs are having theirs right ... about ... now!

Shares of AAPL have blown up bears in after-hours trading. Since Apple announced typical world-beating numbers today, the stock bottomed at $129 on silly fears over iPhone numbers, then made a sprint to $150.

The move gives AAPL its all-time high and a very similar performance to Amazon's stock yesterday, which ran from $69 at the close to $84 at the end of extended hours.

Today, AAPL still has more than 2 more hours to make noise, kill bears and stomp out remaining doubters. Not that I'm a genius by any means. I sold at $92. Ouch.

Crocs are also putting a bite on bears. The polarizing stock and Co is trading at $49.90 in after hours, up from yesterday's close of $47.85. With earnings out tomorrow, the run-up from last week's low of $44 isn't entirely surprising. All the fears relating to insider selling in the past quarter have been worked in, and then out of the stock, apparently.

Amazon continued to trade up today after yesterday's eye-popping performance. The stock is up to $87.03 in after hours. For the day, more than 59 million shares traded in AMZN, nearly surpassed only by AAPL's 54 million.

SanDisk bumped up again and is at $58.70 in extended hours. And Nintendo? SuperMario is hopping with joy. Shares of NTDOY.PK closed at $60.40, a gain of 7.8% thanks to a robust earnings report before the market. Were there any doubters? When grandma and auntie are buying their first-ever console, you know it's a Wii.

If all our grandmas and aunties buy Wiis and I buy more NTDOY, it's a win-win and we're all gonna be happy.

Disclaimer: Pupule Paul is long AAPL and NTDOY.PK in miniscule fashion.

Nintendo blows out earnings expectations

Nintendo has been a steady monster for the past year, and for the past eight months, in particular.

However, NTDOY.PK could be in for its biggest day in a long time. A Seeking Alpha story on Yahoo! reports that Nintendo shares in Japan made a huge run to 56,800 yen per share earlier today after profits increased 41% to $2.04 billion. The Japanese shares have no connection to the American stock, but 56,800 yen would be worth $59.04. Nintendo closed yesterday's stateside market at $56, an all-time high.

The Co also raised sales guidance along with a host of positive news for the stock. Perhaps most impressive is this: the Co increased its Wii and software sales targets significantly.

This all translates to good news for Nintendo longs. The bad news? Getting shares below $50 could well be a pipe dream now. Forty-five minutes before the opening bell, there is no trade on Nintendo, but there's a bid for $58.85.

Disclaimer: Pupule Paul is slightly long NTDOY.PK.

Not to fret, there will be other Amazonian moves

As I sat there watching Amazon's hurricane-level activity in after hours, I wondered.

I wondered if I should've dove in at $72 before I'd jumped in the shower. I wondered if a buy even at $77 would pay off as quickly as tomorrow. I wondered on and on. I kept my discipline, though, and I didn't try to catch a blazing thoroughbred with my bare hands.

Instead, I think about other wonderful companies that have many more moves ahead. One would be Nintendo. Though the stock has more than doubled since November, the climb is far from over. From the Wii to the DS to various old and new games, Nintendo is steadily climbing without a pinch of negativity in sight.

Roger Ehrenberg's eloquent piece about Microsoft's stagnation, Sony's demise and Nintendo's rise is a must-read. The evolution of growth stocks is something he analyzes well. His conclusion? Nintendo is in tune with the market. Period.

I admit there's a bias on my part, having played Madden Online with my PS2 during the earlier part of this decade. I played obsessively, and was even organizer of a few office Madden Leagues. Sure, this has a lot to do with Electronic Arts, but my loyalty to the PS2 and Nintendo was forged quite deeply, especially since those long-ago days of the original Nintendo console.

I'm already highly bullish, of course, on NTDOY.PK. As Amazon took off for the moon, I should've remembered, Nintendo is one of a handful of other companies that also have meteoric gains ahead. That's plenty enough.

Disclaimer: Pupule Paul is slightly long NTDOY.PK.

Wii Almighty?

Nintendo, almighty Nintendo.

Not so mighty today. NTDOY.PK's amazing run, from $26 in early December to an all-time high of $52.95 yesterday, may have hit a wall. The stock is trading in the $50 range today, its first pullback since June 29.

Yes, it was time for a breather, though Nintendo isn't resting on its laurels by any means. At the E3 trade show, the Co showed off its Balance Board for the Wii.

The Co's approach has been progressive in reeling in non-gamers, stretching boundaries with new Wii and DS games. Toys like the Wii Wheel (for Wii Remote) will still pander to the core Nintendo audience, and the Co is going to make inroads with online play. Finally.

Even with all this development, investors are feeling a bit rejected, given the Heisman. For all the love given Nintendo, it may be unrequited. Why?

The Co said yesterday that it will not increase production enough to meet insatiable demand for the Wii. Not now. Not in Christmas season. In Michelle Steele's video report for Forbes.com, Nintendo vice-president of marketing George Harrison assured fans that the Co is doing its best to build more Wiis.

"We are making more. Slowly, month by month, we're increasing production. It's just the unprecedented demand that was hard for us to really, to anticipate," Harrison told Forbes. "You never quite know until you introduce a product into the marketplace, and it does take some time for the suppliers to ramp up not only the parts, but also the actual assembly of the products, which are all made in China."

That comment is fair enough, but it has me wondering, why can't production expand? Aren't there enough viable workers who can be trained to increase production significantly between now and Christmas? Isn't this China we're talking about, the land of 2 billion people? There are so many addicted gamers in China that the offer of a free Wii (and games) through a job with Nintendo would be the ultimate.

As for the stock, it's possible that today's pullback is an indication that the run is done, that NTDOY will trade sideways from here. After all, the stock has doubled in just eight months because of the Wii's explosion. If Wii sales have hit a ceiling, the stock should follow.

Still a good Co to be in. Just not the right time. Too bad. Though I liked NTDOY since $36, I didn't get in until yesterday with a few shares.

Disclaimer: Pupule Paul is a little long NTDOY.PK.

The silent destroyer: Nintendo

In a world of high flyers, it's almost easy to forget what Nintendo has done in the past eight months.

Obviously, NTDOY.PK is not a forgotten vehicle by any means. In fact, since early December, Nintendo broke free from its trading range at $26 to vault into a massive run that has yet to find a ceiling. NTDOY closed at an all-time high of $52.60 on Friday, well above its moving averages and showing no signs of a slowdown.

The fuel to this run, of course, is the Wii. It remains out of stock and wildly popular in the doldrums of summer. Production of the best-seller isn't expected to pick up significantly for several more months, which means it will remain a low-supply/high-demand situation.

A few weeks ago, I told myself that there would be time to pick up NTDOY shares since it was early summer. The real boost to sales, I concluded, would come in the fall in anticipation of robust Christmas sales. I was wrong.

Nintendo traded at $45 on that day (June 29), and I've missed the boat for cheaper shares. So much for trying to outsmart or calculate the timing of the market. It's more and more apparent, that with so many winning stocks out there in this bull market, buyers still gravitate early to companies with home run hitters like the iPhone, the Wii and, yes, Caymans.

Behind the products, of course, are superior cost controls and distribution systems. Nintendo's biggest plus in the war against the likes of Sony, Microsoft, and even Electronic Arts, is that it makes both consoles (Wii and DS) and games. Microsoft is in a league of its own, of course, but the Xbox is as good as its going to be for now, and it still can't beat the Wii in sales. Sony's PS3 has dragged in sales, and a $100 discount (announced last week) still won't make a more than a little ripple.

So there. Nintendo is a great stock to own. Buying at this level, though, will test the mettle of any believer. I'd like to see it come down to $50, but with the steady climb — the stock has not been prone to major volatility — it could just keep going up without a major pullback. That's what Wii domination has done for NTDOY believers.

For all its mystery and distance as an OB stock, I'm out of excuses to stay out. Besides, even with a minor pullback, the question might be, where will NTDOY be at year's end? I'm pretty certain it won't be $50 or $60. I see it at $70, perhaps $80. It's the same kind of anticipation I had about Apple in January, knowing that it would run from $90 to $125 by the time the iPhone was on the market.

I just hope to have the sense to buy and hold my shares this time around, of both AAPL and NTDOY.

Disclaimer: Pupule Paul is long AAPL with just a narrow slice of the pie. He has no position in any of the other stocks mentioned in this story.