Thursday cinema & library

We're on the verge of some potentially titanic movements in the next few days. Sit tight and avoid the turbulence, or at least take a barf bag with you. Better yet, get on your bike and enjoy a fine summer evening.

Tyler Durden: Positioning for weekend: BofA's risk cheat sheet (June 15)
TraderFlorida (video): Thursday wrap (June 14)
streetmoney21 (video): Currency markets prepare for total chaos on Monday (June 14)
Le Fly: Come get it (June 14)

Charles Biderman: How to benefit from global financial mess (June 14)

Street Insider: Unusual mid-day movers (NBG) (June 14)
Barron's: Apple potential 'game changer' in mobile payments (June 13)
Reggie Middleton: As predicted last year, French and Greeks in race (June 13)

Titanic or Titillating Thursday

2:24 am (Hawaii) The Spanish 10-year is at 7%. How fricken outlandish is that? No nation can survive long with something like that. It's just ... implausible. No country was built to survive something like that. Yet there it is. Infuckingcredible.

But the world is not coming to an end. If there's one good thing about the internet, it's this: the masses share everything, good and bad ideas, at warp speed. So long as there is power, ideas and solutions spread at a rate we as a species have never seen before. So it's impossible to measure that component and believe with all certainty that we're up shit creek for good.

It just feels like it sometimes.

Here's what amuses and/or infotains this morning.

Business Insider: Initial unemployment claims MISS BIG (June 14)
Joe Weisenthal: I just got a ride to my hotel in Athens and BOY was it depressing (June 14)
Business Insider: Holy Crap: Spanish 10-year yield hit 7.0% (June 14)

No wind behind Spanish sails (updated)

7:41 am (Hawaii) The Spanish bailout had Dow futures +140 at one point last night. My guess was that AAPL would hit 590 today. So I got up a little while ago, turned on the TV to see the Dow down 30 points. Stunning. No +100 or +200 day?

AAPL nearly hit 590, hitting 588.50 intraday, but is now back at 581+, barely positive even though its annual developers conference has begun. (They've released new and improved MacAir.) The bailout lasted for the blink of an eye. FAZ, which gapped down nearly a dollar to 25.00 at the open, is now at 26.56. I'm still all cash and probably will leave this mess alone. But it's telling how any bailout is having almost no effect on the overall market.

Update 10:16 am Took a shot at FAZ at 26.92, ran to 27.04 and fell. Got out at 26.80 for a teeny loss. Got back in at 27.09. (Missed a buy at 26.93 on the way back up.) Sold at 27.34 before the closing bell. Net positive for the day, basically break even. Had I held from 26.92, would've been a small, but decent paper profit. The after-hours puppeteers have FAZ at 27.39.

Almost impossible to hold anything overnight unless you have a major cushion, like say AAPL since 95. But even AAPL took a couple of roundhouse blasts to the face, falling to 571+ before the bell after being up nicely early in the day. Dow -142 (-1.1%), Nas -48 (-1.7%), S&P -16 (-1.3%). Surely another bailout coming this week, likely for Italy, which means another gap higher for the indices. I'd rather wait for the pop and fade that. Or just watch from the top row with my binoculars.

Status quo

On the road again and it's nice to be out of the traffic mess and snarl, the craziness of people in tight quarters. No, out here it's quiet, less traffic and even with a job to do, I can relax almost instantly. Catching up with today's price action. China cut interest rate, but Bernanke was predictably stoic after a huge two-day run-up in the market. Don't forget the bullish comments coming out of Fed bankers recently, and Bernanke had to stay quiet, ie douse the flames with a sprinkling of cold water.

Would've been profitable to short financials after the open today via FAZ, but I was asleep at 3:30 am and later was on the road. It's looking more and more like a dead-cat bounce, though this one is completely attached by umbilical cord to monetary easing (or not) and Eurozone politics. That's what makes it difficult to hold FAZ overnight. Had I tried this yesterday, I would've started today's session down an full buck. Not worth the risk.

Looks like a lot of jibber-jabber on the way from people like Fed bankers, and that'll make for a lot of useless running in place between now and those key Eurozone elections in about 10 days. Just enough time to really take a deep breath and enjoy the view.

Idling and parking (updated)

8:26 am (Hawaii) Some long, fun days for me with summer here, which means I've slept through the past two sessions for the most part. Even though I knew futures were up more than 100 points last night. The Dow is +203 with about 90 minutes left. AAPL is hovering around 570, off its intraday high of 573.85. AGQ is up 5.1% to 43.86, one of the most obvious signs that sentiment is with the bulls, i.e. euro printing is about to crank into full madness.

DGP is barely green today, however. Also note that volume is a pittance, so this move could pop any moment. It's a three-legged chair. It's a lack of sellers more than an onslaught of buyers. Even social media are up: FB +0.9%, YELP +4.3%. Even GRPN +7.4%.

Finnies are rallying again. JPM is +2.6% and FAS is +6.66 percent (not making that up). VXX is down 4.8% and TVIX is -8.9%.

I have some work to do, in and out this morning (yes, it's still morning here in the middle of the Pacific), and I'm not convinced about this move higher. I may dip into DGP or even NUGT with a tight stop, but that's it. This arena is half empty, and if the balloon pops in Europe, the tankage will resume. My gut tells me they have to print, though. It's a conundrum.

Update 10:04 am In and out of FAS for a quick little profit. Got in at 77.70 a few minutes before the closing bell. Swung lower to about 77.45 before it closed strong. A few minutes after the bell, sold at 78.45. They'll puppeteer this thing back to 77.70 or so at some point today, I'm guessing.

Of course, now that I'm out, it will go to 80, then 85, then 90. They must print euros. Simple as that. So why am I not in gold and/or silver? Both have made big runs recently. I'll wait until things cool off a little more before walking into that. Because any whiff of bad news regarding the ECB, eurozone, Germany ... and FAS goes back to 68. And lower.

Weekend cinema & library (updated)

Bokor Mountain Church, Cambodia

Le Fly/iBankCoin: Germany's third World War (June 3)
Scott Bleier/iBankCoin: Growth at any cost? (June 3)
Business Insider: Soros reveals exact moment Merkel started Euro collapse (June 2)
Business Insider: Former hedge funder presents terrifying version of end game (June 2)
Bloomberg: Merkel rejects debt sharing (June 2)
Reuters: Funds pull out of commodities, most bearish since end-2011 (June 1)
Zero Hedge: 'The End Game' (June 1)
Zero Hedge: The deer is back (June 1)
Zero Hedge: Santelli and Kaminsky on broken rules, unpredictability, deleveraging (June 1)
Zero Hedge: Sorry folks, QE3 ain't coming, even the Fed doves admit it (June 1)

News trumps all

7:50 am (Hawaii) I've been disgusted with myself all week, which is no way to prepare for the market. Heck, in that mindset, it would've been best to leave home for awhile, get outside and get some clarity, which I did a few times. It's not the amount in trading losses that bothered me; it was relatively fractional. It was the whipsaw nature of price action and my inability — or unwillingness — to respect the lack of direction.

But I was all cash most of the week after the close, and that game plan was best. Though I wasn't long FAZ overnight, I wasn't long the market either and this -247 point move in the Dow comes on the back end of these negative PMI numbers across the world in the past 36 hours. It's tempting to go short (via FAZ or TVIX), but the risk here is that with all the bad news absorbed, and Obama done speaking (the indices dove again as he began), the market is done puking for the time being.

DJ -2%
Nasdaq -2.6%
S&P -2.3%

Overnight futures were at -110 before I hit the sack, so getting up to see this isn't a major shock. But gold is UP. DGP is +8.2%. AAPL is down 2.5% ($14) to 563. Even some of the stocks that had been resilient, like JACK, are down more than 4%.

The strange thing is, volume is SO LOW. In some cases, it is miniscule. So is this a true capitulation move even without volume? Maybe there are simply no sellers left and this really is the bottom. But I'm not willing to go long here. Not yet.

Update 8:13 am In FAZ at 29.75.

Update 8:20 am Out FAZ 29.62. It was up to 29.83 and topped out. Should've protected myself and stopped out (manual) for break-even. Tiny loss, but it's the principle. During that intraday top by FAZ, AAPL bottomed at 560.52. AAPL now 562.50, FAZ at 29.50. Anything with a gain over 10% like FAZ is due to sell off, no surprise.

Late night munchies (updated)

9:47 pm (Hawaii) Had another couple of very small losses today despite being up in one at an early point, and the fact that FAZ finished the day up off its lows didn't bring me any consolation. It finally fricking dawned on me: I've been trying to time breakouts (as was the case successfully last week) instead of simply, simply trading the ranges.

Yeah. It's that fricking simple. In hindsight, of course. We are now in the midst of all this PMI economic news across the globe, not that any of it changes the banking nightmare in the Western world. It's bad enough that one Mr. Fly, who has always insisted that the puppeteers will have no choice but to print en masse sooner or later, is cautioning against hero behavior in this wretched market.

Under a do nothing scenario, stocks will crash. Economies will grind to a halt and life as you know it will change. I am fairly certain, under a full retard scenario, the markets will close, possibly for months until shit gets figured out. They’d have to do this in order to avoid bank runs.
My advice to you: keep the majority of your net worth out of the market. It’s okay to play with stocks, since we all like to gamble. But it won’t be funny if your net worth gets halted for trading for 6 months, while you starve to death in your fucking Mcmansion. This advice applies to short sellers too. Your fantastic tailwinds will be kept away from your purse, if the markets go on holiday.

A bit more from Le Fly regarding the possibility of deflation:

This is as bad as it gets. The markets are tame because people believe QE3 or some bailout is around the corner. If we do not get either, bear with me as I prepare this next sentence: WE ARE GOING DOWN 5,000 DOW POINTS IN SHORT ORDER. 

Rumors that Greece cannot secure credit to buy oil, are running rampant, and have been forced to secure it from large European corporations, with onerous conditions. Spanish and Italian credit is in danger too, which is why oil is tanking so hard. See, boys and girls, that’s what deflation does. Credit is non-existant and money becomes scarce. Food, oil and basic materials will not be delivered.

Update 11:08 pm Business Insider reports that European markets and US futures are sinking because of the PMI data. An hour ago, futures were roughly -45. They're now at -81. But really, the more this teeters off center, the closer the market gets to a reprieve from the central banksters. Or not.

Josh Brown:

In 2008, with global markets in free-fall and the Beijing Olympics looming, the Chinese Ministry of Doing Whatever The Fuck It Wants pulled a stimulus package out of its ass so large that it represented almost 20% of the country's GDP. We're talking General Tso's Shock and Awe. 

And it did the trick - a little too well. Chinese real estate and infrastructure spending went banoodles, getting to the point where they were building ghost cities just to keep the machinery cranking and home prices greatly exceeded what anyone could actually afford to pay. The central government decided enough was enough and began to use policy to tamp down on the bubble. And things haven't been the same ever since.

This story in the NY Times is more than two years old, but already Spanish citizens were stuck between a rock and a hard place, unable to return to farm labor jobs. Like China, an unprecedented construction boom preceded the inevitable downturn in the economy.

Not a pretty place for the average joes of the world. Always getting screwed over, sure 'nuff.

Looking ahead (updated)

2:39 pm (Hawaii) Kinda regretting not holding any FAZ. Realizing that smaller positions, even smaller than what I've sometimes traded, will work best through the choppiness.

Business Insider: Nikkei tanks right away as industrial output comes in weak (May 30)

But @TraderFlorida has been spot on in regard to technical analysis, riding AAPL down until last week, and now he's bullish on it for the short term.

TraderFlorida (video): Nice bounce today (May 30)

I'm all cash for now. Who knew AAPL would jump $10 while the Dow would plunge 160?

From earlier today:


Business Insider: ECB sends out rejection of FT report that it blocked Spanish bank recap (May 30)
Business Insider: Here comes the busiest 48 hours in history of economics (May 30)
Telegraph: Spain faces 'total emergency' (May 30)

Update 8:53 pm 


AZ Daily Sun: Asia stocks fall as Italy, Spain bond costs rise (May 30)
Orange County Register: Robert Samuelson: Why is there no Greek bank run? (May 30)
Bloomberg: Spain's banking rescue should become example for Europe (May 30)

Wacked Wednesday? (updated)

3:46 am (Hawaii) Didn't like my trades yesterday. Liked the market whiplash even less. Aimless but I got myself stuck in that merciless washing machine. This time, the market shows direction (down) and I'm back in with FAZ (at 26.78) and TVIX (at 8.48). The TVIX position is quite small this time, meaning I can withstand a 2% or 3% drop. Stop losses, as always, are in place.

Why the drop in indices today (1% to 1.3%)? China says no stimulus, serious stimulus is coming. Is this really news? No. But volume is in this negative market today.

Update 3:56 am A wtf moment indeed. FAZ dipped to 26.69 and stopped me out. But TVIX went even more dippy down to 8.45 and stopped me out. It touched 8.45 for a few seconds and ran back up to 8.55. In other words, they played me and my stop loss orders. I'm at a net loss (very small) but it sucks that I was up (small) for the past 25 minutes or so and got suckered. Yeah. Note to self, no stop losses on TVIX from now on.

Update 11:08 am Woke up about 25 minutes ago to see the Dow closed -160. Indices were off by 1 to 1.4%. But the move in financials, FAZ, TVIX are major. My entire Debt Spiral list is red with big losses today. FAZ fell to 26.99, then ran into the close and is at 27.55 after hours. In other words, I would've had a winning trade if I'd stayed in. (I wouldn't have held all the way down below 27, but I could've started a new position in that area.)

TVIX, which I bought early today at 8.48, dipped to 8.32 by 2 pm Eastern time before running hard. TVIX was at 9.10 after hours and is now at 8.94. I traded in and out of FAZ and TVIX with zero success today. Time to change strategy. I had the right picks, but the wrong timing.

It's unpredictable even though so many bloggers and analysts claim it is not. Sure there's a bounce ahead, but when? Nobody really knows anything except that when it bounces, it will be big. Until then, the dollar keeps rising, the euro keeps dropping (below 1.24) and my timing needs to be better.

Oddly enough, AAPL ran to 579.99 before cutting back to 578.10 after hours, up 1% for the day. @TraderFlorida, as usual, is dead on about AAPL's bounce. His call was bullish if AAPL gets above 576 on big volume. Today's volume, 13.4M shares, is a bit more than Monday and Tuesday levels, but not close to last week's numbers (22M+).

AAPL up, Apple plays down

Weekend cinema & library (updated)

10:37 am (Hawaii) Gold (and silver) got a nice gap up this morning thanks to the CME mafia's loosening (death) grip on margin requirements. Most of the market though was flat, meandering, aimless. The skeptic in me wants to be in FAZ since we have Memorial Day weekend ahead and that gives the Euro boneheads three entire days to keep screwing their system up. (Is it reasonable to expect such disparate cultures and nations to be unified? We would never enter a union with Canada, Mexico, Panama and Haiti, would we? Bad comparison, I know, but how can Germany not despise Greece at this point?)

So gold's leap higher appeals to the optimist in me. Maybe the puppeteers are ready to jolt this market to new highs like 2011. But craziness in the euro zone is going to happen, just a matter of when. So I remain neutral, all cash.

Bloomberg: Deutsche Bank's Fitschen said failed Greece lacks leaders (May 25)
Zerohedge: About that European stress test (2011) and where pain in Spain is raining next (May 25)
Zerohedge: Greece has proved that ECB bailout scheme based on lies, fraud (May 25)

Update Monday 8:14 pm The pessimists/realists/skeptics could be right 99% of the time. I could agree with them 99% of the time. But that 1% they're wrong could be precisely when the market bounces. Probably when more fiat starts rolling off the digital presses. Then what? What good will it do anyone to be short the market?

Still, it's good to hear both sides of the story.

Economic Collapse: 25 signs that smart money has written off Southern Europe (May 28)
Reggie Middleton (video): Breaking down muppetology (May 28)
Le Fly: One more great trade until September (May 28)

Sandstorms and saliva (updated 9:46 am)

1:25 am (Hawaii) Traded just once on Thursday (small loss in TVIX, a truly wicked bitch of an ETF), just busy running errands, getting things done. No choice. Had to be done. Trading in a thin market that does nothing but eat its own vomit? Yes, I can take a pass on that even if I'm not running around away from from home.

This morning, CME mafia is lower margin requirements. I haven't kept track much of precious metals for months, so if this is a first this year or last, this might be huge news. Remember when CME kept raising margin requirements awhile back? They did it four times in nine sessions and gold spot price cratered.

So, my conspiracy theorists out there, is this an engineered move to get the market rolling higher?

MarketWatch: CME Group cuts margins for gold futures (May 25)
NY Times: In Spain, bank transfers reflect broader fears (May 25)
CBS News: EU summit ends with lots of uncertainty, few plans (May 24)
Bloomberg: Monti says Germany can be persuaded on euro bonds (May 24)

Update 8:43 am Back in FAZ at 26.91. I bought (impulsively) on a spike from 26.72 to 26.93. Soon as I re-entered, it sold off back to 26.75 or so. My stop loss was in place had it gone lower. Now FAZ is back to 26.91. Volume that spiked in the past 30 minutes. Roughly an hour and a half ago, both FAZ and gold rose and held their gain. Banks selling off and gold rising? Unusual.

AAPL also made a run during that time, from 560 to 563, but gave back all of it and more in short time. AAPL fell to 559+ and is now above 561. Thin market, unpredictable, a lot of games being played.

Not planning to hold FAZ over this three-day weekend. There's always the possibility of some form of compromise out of the euro zone. There's also the possibility of ugliness as tension rises in Greece and Spain.

Update 9:46 am Out of FAZ at 26.93 (+0.02/share) for a break-even trade. It ran a bit to 27.13, but I just raised my stop loss instead of selling for a smallish profit. The market is indecisive as ever going into the close.

Postmarket prognasticating

11:31 am (Hawaii) Well well. On TV, the jabbermouths at CNBC claim that EU leaders went into tonight's summit with an open mind about Eurobonds. Yet this story in Ireland's Journal notes that Merkel remains staunchly against such things.

“I believe that they are not a contribution to stimulating growth in the eurozone,” Merkel said, adding that such instruments were expressly forbidden by the EU’s own treaties.

Can't blame her. This story came out roughly at 5 pm Eastern (35 minutes ago), which may explain the little pop in FAZ after hours. It's at 26.85 on the usual thin volume. AAPL is smoking hot, now at 573. I'd love to re-enter, but anything negative out of that summit will knock the market down immediately.

Huge hump day (updated 9:55 am)

5:31 am (Hawaii) It could be huge. Or just a puff of smoke blowing by. Will anything really change with the "informal" EU summit?

Re-opened a position in FAZ at 28.05. With each passing day in May, it's easy to say in hindsight that it's better to just let a position run. Just hold it overnight; Europe is a long way from printing more euros. But I've been burned before on overnight holds of FAZ. And mornings like this when I can't get wake up before 5 am, too risky. There's time to catch any (Eastern time) afternoon runs.

RTE News: What can the EU summit deliver? (May 23)
Bloomberg: European Banks Unprepared for Greek Exit from Euro (May 23)

Update 6:44 am Stopped out of FAZ at 28.25 (+0.21/share). Tiny profit, I'll take it. Volume at its softest of the day as FAZ faded from its high. Indices are all roughly -1.3%. Nothing bullish (or bearish) out of the EU summit. Yet.

Update 6:58 am Re-entered FAZ at 28.24 as it bounced off a swing to 28.15. Stop loss as always is in place. Volume low, whipsaw action could get more drastic. Maybe at the top of the hour.

Update 7:23 am Stopped out of FAZ at 28.07 (-0.17/share) for a tiny loss. I'm now break even for the day. The chart looks like it's tiring and the indices are starting to rally a bit. (DJ -1.1%, Nas -1%, S&P -1%.) FAZ could jump from here, but I'm not going to force a trade.

AAPL back in the green, now 559.40, up more than $2. No idea if it will stick, though @TraderFlorida has a clear-cut view of where it will go.

Update 7:52 am The Fibonacci retrace from today's high (off yesterday's close of 27.03) is at 27.90. FAZ was at 27.88 just a minute ago, now bouncing to 28.03. Funny how that usually works. A little more volume and I might be convinced.

Update 7:58 am Back in FAZ at 28.06. Stop loss in place.

Update 8:03 am Need to check news far more frequently. This hit the wire at about 7:15 Hawaii time (45 minutes ago):

Bloomberg: Greek Capital Boost May Help Banks to Staunch Deposit Outflows (May 23)

FAZ was at 28.20 before this headline. Then it plummeted to 27.88, which I saw earlier. But I left my stop loss alone after buying at 28.06, and it's now back at 28.10 after wavering below 28. The injection of 18B euros ($23B in dollars) is a band-aid on the bank jog problem.

Update 8:34 am Stopped out of FAZ at 28.12 (+.06/share) for the teeniest of profits. It was up to 28.32 and yanking back violently in the past several minutes on strong volume.

Update 8:44 am That was ugly. Entered FAZ at 28.03, and the second it hit, it slumped to 27.98 and it got fugly after that. Dropped to 27.83 in a matter of 1 minute if that and I was stopped out for a small loss. Volume was big, and I should've taken the cue from a long red candle on the 3-min chart just 12 minutes ago or so. Trying a bit too hard here, time to step away.

Update 9:35 am In AAPL at 568.80. Passed on it earlier at 566. Stop loss is fairly tight. Strictly a day trade. Nasdaq crossed over to green a couple of minutes ago. The summit in Europe has the market bullish for the time being.

Update 9:47 am Out of AAPL at 570.80 (+2.00/share) for a tiny profit. I raised my stop loss a few times, but once it hit 572.80 and sold off fast, I needed to get out. I wanted to change the stop loss to a limit sell for a higher price, but it moved a little faster to the downside and I chose not to get too greedy. Just wanted to get out with a profit and took a price below bid due to the speed of price action downward. (Stop loss was at 570.30, so I did better making the quickie adjustment.)

No way I would've held AAPL overnight. Too much risk at the summit.

Update 9:55 am Euro madness? More like euro anxiety. Tempting to get a little position in FAZ here, being pessimistic on Greece, but probably staying out until we get some news from the summit.

Reuters: Eurozone tells members to make contingencies for Grexit (May 23)

Bankster purgatory

11:45 am (Hawaii) Morgan Stanley (MS) hit 13.90 early in the day as the RobotMarket pushed financials higher and higher for a second day in a row. But it is now at 13.10 and falling after hours on news that Massachusetts has subpoenaed the company over the Facebook mess.

Add to this the coming congressional hearings into JPMorgan that will give every media channel an abundance of Jamie Dimon footage (ie plank walking interrogation) and it's unlikely FAS and the finnies will rally again for awhile. So why am I not long FAZ?

The whole Greek show tomorrow is going to set the table tomorrow. I'd rather wait for that first.

Rudderless market (updated 12:32 pm)

8:08 am (Hawaii) I still think the robots are in control, just not as firmly as yesterday. AAPL ran to 573 and ran out of steam. The buying ended and it has since pulled back to 563 where it drifts in an abyss. The indices looked about ready to give all its gains back today, but have stayed positive in the past hour.

Somehow someway the financials are getting a "lift". That's where I think G8 hit the switch and got the robots cranked up. Again. 95% of my Debt Spiral list is green, and that includes NBG and STD. JPM is up 5.3% to 34.24 even though it is (in my mind) almost certain that their losses are about to double or triple (or worse).

Sure no stock goes to 0 in a straight line, but this is borderline comedy that insolvent institutions are being propped up on nothing (that we peons can know about). In the end, the printing presses will hum. In the end-end, they will not. But that's not today and I haven't hit a buy order yet. All for the best.

Some reading for your pleasure and education:

Jim Wyckoff: Top 10 mistakes traders make (May 21)

Update 9:25 am Back in FAZ at 26.85. I wanted in at 26.70, missed it by a hair. Was looking for a breakout above 26.80 or a pullback to the range low of 26.55. Indices pummeled in the past 15 minutes. Nasdaq in the red with AAPL back to 557.

Greek/Eurozone has a big day tomorrow. Not looking to play either side, just watching FAZ price action, have my stop loss in place. So much for that dead cat bounce. JPM had been up large today, pulling back now to 34.09. It was at 32.99 early today. Might close there, who knows.

When AAPL started to crater, I just didn't have the guts to short it. I've never shorted anything directly, only through something like FAZ. But AAPL has already hit 546 recently, my Fibonacci retrace price (from 396 to the 644 high), and it was at 521 just two sessions ago. Strange times indeed.

Update 9:41 am FAZ reached higher, above 27.40, before pulling back some to 27.29. My stop loss target has been raised three times already. Maybe four.

Greece's former PM feels no obligation to toe the party line, the EU line, the ECB line, any line. His words today are fuel for the fire on financials like JPM, which is now sub 34 (33.93) and eroding.

BBC (video): Papandreou: Greek euro exit would 'destroy' economy (May 22)

Updated 9:52 am Out of FAZ at 27.33 (+0.48/share). Sticking to price discipline even though FAZ could easily open tomorrow above 27.50 or even 28.00 with the way the whole Greek bank run/Eurozone paranoia is shaking out. Just had to secure a decent profit before traders do the same in these final minutes before the bell.

Might try a very small position right before the bell to play tomorrow's scenario. Just don't see the Greeks coming to any kind of compromise with eurozone. It's too early for the new politicians.

Updated 12:32 pm In all, I changed my stop loss on FAZ eight times in that last trade. It was worth it each time.

Machines rule earth

7:44 am (Hawaii) I woke up early enough to get out of DGP at 47.74, taking a small loss (-0.46/share) on a weird open. I was totally worn out by this cold and sleep debt though, and crashed out until now. The indices are up and strangely enough, internet/social stocks started poorly and spiked after that roughly 30 minutes in. YELP, for example, sank to 16+ but rose to 20 or so.

FB is down 9% to 34.79, but it was at 33 earlier. AAPL is up 4.4$ to 553. It hit a recent low of 521+ on Friday and closed that day at 530. FAS is up 2.6% though JPM is down 2.7%.

Strange day, indeed. DGP has drifted, still red, now at 48.00. The G8 effect has been minimal, did little to help bulls or bears. gold bugs or bank haters.

Volume is weak. AAPL volume is at 15M+ shares; it was at 26M+ on Friday.

The machines are in control. Again. I suppose this is the one thing that was generally agreed upon at Camp David over the weekend. It feels like melt-up time again.

Weekend library & cinema (updated)

G8 gathers at Camp David this weekend

Boston Globe: An exit by Greece would test the eurozone (May 21)

Business Day: Roubini - Damage from Greek euro exit can be contained (May 21)

Reuters: World leaders back Greece, vow to combat financial turmoil (May 19)

Telegraph: Global banks see market rally on Greek exit (May 18)

"We think the worst is over for the euro," said David Bloom, currency chief at HSBC. "The central banks will have to step in massively and that will be a soothing balm for the markets. The Fed is already leaving the door open for more QE. We could see quite a powerful rally."

Financial Times: Spain hit by rise in bad bank loans (May 18)
ABC News (Australia): Greece tops G8 agenda as markets tumble (May 18)

The World: Moody's downgrades Spanish banks (May 18)

Library of Barcelona

No fizzling out for FAZ (update 11:37 am)

9:02 am (Hawaii) Back from doing some work on the road. Between that and this cold, I've been feeling ragged and had to get sleep this morning. I missed the run for FAZ, which opened in the 27.50s/27.40s area and would've been a great re-entry point. (I sold yesterday at 27.54.) It ran to 28.51, then pulled back to the 28.00 area by the time I woke up. I almost put in a buy order, but the possibility of profit taking at the end of huge week — FAZ was 22.88 a week ago — had me willing to go do my work and be patient.

I re-entered after returning at 27.65. That was just a few minutes ago. It went to 27.76 (and I raised my stop loss), but now it seems profit taking is truly kicking in and my stop-loss price is about to kick in. If that happens, it's a quite small loss and I can live to fight another day. That's the biggest takeaway for this week. Stop-loss is necessary. Mandatory with a fast mover like FAZ (3x ETF). Mandatory with a pushover like GSVC. The big losses are rare but they knock me down and erase all of the small wins. Price discipline is key.

FB is now at 38.65, just over its IPO price, despite a lackluster market. That's being kind. This is a correction we're in. I'll be happy to get some FB at 25 or 30. They always pull back, the IPOs. Doesn't matter how great the stock and company are. Patience is key.

Update 9:20 am Stopped out of FAZ at 28.53 (-0.12/share). Tiny loss. As expected, traders holding from 27.50 this morning or all the way down to 22+ a week ago are cashing in for the weekend. FAZ has bottomed near term at the 28.40 area, now rising again. Should be interesting how the new buyers do against the heavy selling.

Update 9:36 am Back in FAZ at 28.66. Stop loss in place. Seems preposterous to be buying it when I sold yesterday more than a dollar lower, but that was a long time ago in the FAZ universe.

Update 9:39 am FB pulling back to 38.00, but there's a huge wall of buyers there with orders of 16K, 27K, 65K, 51K, 3360K (3.36 million shares?) protecting the price.

Update 9:47 am Stopped out of FAZ at 28.72 for a teeny gain. Thought about selling when it hit 28.92, but that was so quick. It went from that high to 28.80 in an instant. Let the trade ride instead of trying to change, adjust on the fly. That can be dangerous if a stop loss order is changed to a limit order while the price is sprinting either way.

Update 9:52 am It's hard to listen to gold. Spot gold is up big the past three days, an indication that the Fed/puppeteers are ready to unload trillions in new fiat currency. Damn austerity, they cry. So gold is tempering my desire to trade FAZ one more time before the closing bell.

Update 9:57 am Entered DGP at 48.10 before the closing bell. There will be some consensus out of Europe this weekend about stimulus, new bonds, whatever the hell the can imagine and create to soothe the overheated markets. I'm staying out of FAZ here. The only way I'd stay in is if I'd stayed long since 22.88 (a week ago).

Update 10:28 am DGP moving higher after hours, now 48.31 on thin volume. My position is small and it would take a serious move higher for me to consider selling. Weekend in Eurozone at the G8 meeting will be interesting. If there's some progress, FAS will run. If not, the weight of these "bank jogs" will take a toll.

Update 10:38 am I've probably underappreciated the effect of JPM on FAZ today. JPM hit an intraday low of 33.01 or so today, and the news from them continues to be horrible. Loss on that botched "hedge" trade is likely $5B, not $2B or $3B. I won't be surprised when it turns out to be $10B. They can't unwind it so they just keep betting against it on the other end.

So, even if/when Europe starts taking steps toward really dealing with the issues in Greece and Spain (and Portugal, France, etc), FAZ could still jump on problems at JPM. How much, don't know. But the kryptonite will be a new round of stimulus, and there's nothing that will help FAZ by then.

When that round of QE/whatever you want to call it is over, though ... gold and FAZ will spike like nobody's business.

Update 11:37 am FAZ coming down, like yesterday, in after hours trading. Now at 28.65. If it can pull back lower, say to 28.30, I might pull the trigger. Why hold DGP and FAZ? The onset of fiat currency printing alone fuels gold. The bank runs and political schemes to control ban runs, even with G8 strategies, are just a thumb in the dike. Banks are in deep, deep kim chi.

Why I avoid overnight holds

11:37 pm (Hawaii) I try not to hold overnight in this murderous hellhole of a market. One reason is that you never know what the banksters will cook up next. In Spain, they're asking for short-selling bans.

MarketWatch: Europe stocks fall after Spain bank downgrades (May 18)

Other Spanish banks such as Banco Santander SA ES:SAN +2.18% STD -1.94% —dropped two notches by Moody’s—and BBVA SA ES:BBVA +2.79% BBVA -2.93% added 2% and 3% after a report in Spanish daily Cinco Dias said Spanish banks were going to ask regulator CNMV to reinstate a ban on short-selling of domestic banks. A spokeswoman for the regulator said there had been no changes.