HOKU revisited

All doubters and believers are saying and thinking whatever they want, but until that plant is done in Pocatello, Idaho, nobody's right.


You're either a believer or not. In or out. There's no gray area unless you're playing options, straddling, whatever.

Hoku gets more time

Extensions, extensions. I wonder if Hoku Scientific will get full financing for the Pocatello (Idaho) polysilicon plant. Nobody really knows. But getting an extension on the deadline with Solar-Fabrik AG is huge. Still long HOKU.

Mr. Brown's Picks

Good friend of mine, Mr. Brown, is dipping his toes into stocks, braving very choppy seas. I'm taking a look at his stocks, with more homework on a few due later.

Awesome maaan. I had to look these up. Some I never knew about before.


Citigroup (C) is very tempting. They have healthy exposure in China, was one of the first major financial institutions to get really embedded in the new economy there. Ups and downs because of the mortgage mess, but there's more upside than downside from here, I think. I kinda expect at least one more downturn related to the mortgage crisis, but that's bearable.


Crocs (CROX) I have to confess I gave up on when I lost a big profit. I wear their sandals, believe in the product. But it went from 40 to 75 and back to below 40. I think it's still a good company but the slowing growth means 75 probably ain't gonna happen with consumer spending tailing off. Maybe 50. That would be a nice profit. I just won't go near it.


I have no idea what EMCOR Group (EME) does, but the stock is on a big roll. It gapped up last week from 22 to 24 and is now at 25.36. Need to do homework on this puppy.


E-Trade (ETFC) I like as an online broker, but there are some serious, ongoing issues in regard to loans. The brokerage is just a small part of the company now so I wonder what the future holds when people make less money (economy, inflation) and default on their loans. When ETFC went below 3, that was just paranoia, though. Doubling to 5 between January and February was the top, I'm guessing. It's gonna take a whole lot to move the stock above 6. I hope it happens.


General Electric (GE) is a classic blue-chip, but it's so huge, where's the growth going to come from? It's a safe stock in this bear market, a good addition to the portfolio.


Google (GOOG) will be back. Maybe not to 750 (last November) right away, but at 464 today, it's tempting. I'd maybe get some shares later, when the selling is done. Might be done for now, actually. GOOG was at 446 intra-day.


Hoku Scientific (HOKU) I already have. Like the company, though risk comes with this. They still need to secure financing for the polysilicon plant in Idaho. Sanyo and Suntech Power are two of the big boys who are betting on Hoku. If the company comes through, there is $10 billion in contracts waiting.


Never heard of St. Joe Corp. (JOE). Gotta do homework.


Metallurgic stocks are hot right now, and I know nothing about them. But metals and other commodities are in demand because of the modernization in China, India and Brazil. North American Palladium (PAL) has run from 3.50 to 9 ... incredible gap-ups in the past month. Careful here. The profit-taking will be immense until the next catalyst/contract. Looking forward to doing some homework here.

Hoku secures more financing

Hoku Scientific took another step toward completing the polysilicon plant in Idaho by raising $25 million. That explains today's jump (more than 10%), but issuing stock isn't always good for shareholders in the short term. HOKU, though, is not the normal stock and this is not an old company diluting its share price.

It's a good move, and the string of positive action by management is promising for longs. I picked up some shares near the close (10.20). Not cheap. It was below 9 last week. But today's volume was quite large and the stock, still below its 50-day SMA, is compelling long term.

HOKU, YGE have happy feet

If this truly is the year of solar, today may have been the last chance to get Hoku Scientific below 10 and Yingli Green Energy below 19. Credit disaster or not, oil is still going through the roof via demand, political maneuvering or something else. Gasoline is something that the big fish will always use to swallow us little fish. Not that I'm long, as I probably should have been, CNOOC or PetroChina or even Flowserve to begin with.

Solar won't be The Answer. But it will be a key slice of the pie. Hoku leaped over 10 again today and is pushing to its intra-day high at 10.20 right now. I saw it drift below 9 last week and waited for a chance to get shares at 8.50 or even 8 flat. Now that it's up more than 10% for the day, I can only wait.

Waiting is something I've done on YGE, which dropped like a dead carcass to the bottom of the ocean after I bought shares above 24. YGE is up from its recent low near 18 and is holding at 19.38 right now. I don't trust this market at all and there's no point in assuming anything. But the solar sector is mixed today, and it seems short-term traders are betting on small caps like Hoku and Yingli.

HOKU bucks trend

How did Hoku Scientific buck the declining solar sector today? HOKU up 4.3% to 9.59 while the sector fell off a cliff. Shares were below 9 in the final hour, but big buying in the last few minutes pushed it up. The news? There is no news.

I almost bought some yesterday, but decided to wait for 8.50 or even 8.00. I'll be patient here. HOKU will be a winner in 2009. No price target here, but that's my expectation.

Banking on solar: YGE

This is my second go-round with Yingli Green Energy. It's not a best-of-breed like First Solar, but YGE's earnings are out tomorrow and for some very simple(ton) reasons, I think it will be spectacular.

Bot YGE @ 24.80

I got shares on what I thought would be a minor pullback in the solar sector. But it dived with the sector and I should've had stops in. When I fell asleep (at about 5:30 a.m. Hawaii time), YGE hit its low for the day at 23.11. By the close, it was back up to 24.88. A lot of optimists on this stock, unlike FSLR, which sold off the day before its earnings report.

Suntech Power reports on Wednesday. Watching for a great entry point on STP, which closed at 50.49 (-2.30, 4.3%) today. STP is 44% off its high of 90 in just six weeks. HOKU was tempting, too, but I still have 9 as my desired entry point. HOKU fell more than 2% to 9.95. I'll wait and watch. I think 9 is the new support since Sanyo extended its contract from seven to 10 years. Instead of trading between 6 and 14, the new range may be 9 and ... who knows?

Suntech to knock it out of the park?

Though I have a soft spot for Hoku Scientific (as a local company), Suntech Power also has my attention. Even with today's insane surge (15%), STP is way, way, way off its high of 90. At 53, STP is off it's high by 41%. Suntech reports next week (Feb. 20). The stock is above its 200-day SMA (47), below its 100-day SMA (60). Volume was huge today. The stock ain't cheap, but it's still a reasonable price. Might walk out of DIS to get some STP.

Holy Sol!

Holy smokin' sun. First Solar up to 230 in after-hours trading. That's a gain of $54 since yesterday's close. The circus sideshow is alive and well again. FSLR. BIDU. Ka-Boom!

More solars on fire (AH numbers):
ENER 28.28 +2.45 (+9.5%)
ESLR 11.36 +1.25 (+12.4%)
HOKU 10.20 +0.21 (+2.1%)
SPWR 78.51 +7.21 (+10.1%)
STP 53.01 +7.09 (+15.4%)
YGE 24.60 +3.85 (+18.5%)

I've liked Hoku and Yingli in the past, but my toes are in cement (DIS, YHOO) right now and I find it difficult to get them toes out. Watching FSLR today was not quite as fun or profitable as being in. Do I wish I'd jumped in at 207 or 210? Of course. I deserve a chance to dance the Snoopy dance once in awhile.

Hawaii's big venture

Jane Wells of CNBC is pretty damned funny, and she even brings her sense of humor to the islands. I live here but I didn't know about the extreme tax-credit deal.

Longshots: Hoku Scientific

My favorite of the 3 Longshots is Hoku Scientific. How can anyone shun the $10 billion in contracts? Or the recent extension to the Sanyo deal? Conversely, it's impossible to wonder if the Idaho plant will be ready on time. My gut says HOKU will come through, but experience tells me wait for a great price. Today's run to 10.11 puts the stock near its 50-day SMA. There's still quite a bit of time before the plant deadline is here, and I expect HOKU to fluctuate up and down. If it can drop back to its 200-day SMA (8.85), I'm in.

HOKU passes 10

I really wanted to scoop up some HOKU below $9. The recent extension of the contract with Sanyo was a good boost. But after closing at 9.37 on Friday, Hoku soared to 10.30 today. Currently at 10.07. Looks like 9 flat is a long ways off, but I'll be waiting patiently.

Sunny day for solar stocks

Alternative energy is up big today while China oil is down significantly. Why? Does it matter? Crude oil fluctuates and solar stocks usually respond, but not always. I think what moved First Solar 8% to 187 (higher earlier) is the upcoming earnings report for Wednesday. Zack's thinks FSLR will surprise.

>> Zacks Earnings Preview

I'm not exactly eager to walk into FSLR before the earnings report. The one time I did was the only time in the past year FSLR missed estimates. I'd just as soon wait for HOKU to get below 9, which will take awhile since it zoomed past 10 (again) today.

Longshots: Hoku Scientific

HOKU 9.39 +0.32 (+3.5%)
50-day SMA: 10.04 | 100-day SMA: 9.63 | 200-day SMA: 8.72
The rate cuts can only help Hoku Scientific in the long run, and yesterday's contract extension with Sanyo is huge. All the ducks are lined up, and if Hoku nails each and every one, 8 bucks for a share (last week) was a steal. I'm looking for HOKU at 9.

Hoku rising high again

Woohoo, the Hoku Scientific bulls are on a rampage. HOKU up $1.71 on nice volume. Why?

> > > Honolulu Star-Bulletin: Hoku adjusts solar contract

The Kapolei-based alternative-energy technology developer is exercising the option under its contract with Solar-Fabrik AG after the German company did not meet a September deadline to provide additional financing for Hoku's planned polysilicon plant in Pocatello, Idaho.

Hoku also said yesterday it has received a six-week extension from Japan-based Sanyo Electric Co. Ltd. to complete financing for the plant. Under the contract amendment, either company may end the supply agreement if Hoku has not secured financing by Feb. 15.

Now, frankly, as someone who has no shares of HOKU, this news is a bit frightening. What if Solar-Fabrik AG doesn't come through? What if the financing for the plant isn't on time? Does $1.5 billion in contracts go poof? Always a lot of ifs with a promising power hitter like Hoku. For traders, HOKU has been a dream come true. I still like the stock as a speculative play, but only when it pulls back and gets cheap. As 2009 gets closer, this will continue to ride a wild roller coaster. The 50-day SMA is 9.40, and at 14.19, HOKU is back near all-time highs. Sustainable?

I'm still a big fan. Just not invested right now. HOKU is a completely news-driven stock, and when there's no news, it sells off and goes ker-plunk. I think this Co wins in the long run, which is why I will add a few shares when it gets cheap only. No news and lots of near-term uncertainty is what bargain hunters want.

Staring into the Chinese Sun

Solar power should've been king in Hawaii 30 years ago. Basic common sense. But costs were prohibitive and the state backed off when federal subsidies (I believe) subsided. Fast-forward to 2007, and it's China that is among the global leaders in the sector, along with Germany and Japan. The U.S. is there, somewhat, but the real fire is with the Middle Kingdom. Here's a good glance at the Chinese solar industry by Nathaniel Gronewold of Earth News.

Surging Chinese solar industry faces material shortages, investor anxiety

This lack of transparency is now drawing closer scrutiny as Chinese solar companies face pressure to open their books, to provide a better sense of the long-term sustainability of their industry.

Gronewold cites the polysilicon shortage in depth, but doesn't touch on the talk that by 2010 there will be a glut of the stuff. Either way, my focus is a little sharper now on Yingli Green Energy (YGE) and Hoku Scientific (HOKU), the latter being a future maker of polysilicon.

Hawaiian energy showdown?

Sorta. Today, Jim Cramer gave a thumbs' up to Hawaiian Electric during the "Lightning Round" on Mad Money.

HECO reported a dismal Q2 recently, and as a resident of Oahu, I'm not surprised. How is any utility here supposed to grow when population growth is stagnant? On the other hand, HECO has a partnership with Hoku Scientific in regard to solar panels. So I wonder, which is the better long-term investment: HECO or HOKU?

My money is literally on HOKU. Just a bit of money. No question, Hoku could swing and miss. Hoku could also knock a series of pitches out of the park come 2009. HECO has limited growth prospects, though it is (finally) trying to venture into alternative energy with a real sense of commitment.

I'll put more cash into my A grade picks any time before HOKU or HECO, but the local angle is compelling for me.

Pupule Paul is slightly long HOKU.

Hoku soaring despite market freefall

The academians are saluting Big Ben Bernanke. The trading pit lifers must be delivering another kind of salute.

Yesterday, I woke up (who does this at 3:30 a.m. with no alarm?) a few minutes after the opening bell, too late to even consider buying some Foster Wheeler before the bell. Fortunately, there was no decision for me. The Co had missed estimates and plunged before the market opened. Still falling this morning (currently $96 after hitting $112 in Tuesday's extended hours).

Today, I'm up again without the alarm clock. It was almost 4 a.m. when I turned on the laptop and TV to find the market back in a sea of red. Funds are closing shop again and it's not over by a long shot. My watch list is mostly red with a few exceptions. Among them is Hoku Scientific, up for a second day in a row.

Interesting. HOKU was up yesterday without news, but someone probably leaked news about, well, this morning's announcement. This is a bizarre stock sometimes, not because of the Co, but because of public sentiment that goes to different extremes. A simple announcement about a contract for the building of the Co's polysilicon plant in Pocatello, Idaho, has driven the stock to a gain of more than 40% off its recent low to $10.50.

With the Dow Jones down as much as 241 points earlier and the Nasdaq currently off by 11 points, that's quite a gain. The positive trading in HOKU for three sessions in a row is a welcome bounce for an oversold stock. Should HOKU be at the $14 level of last month? Or was the recent low of $7.50 more realistic? The moving averages say $9 is where the stock's tight range is.

If this is short covering, maybe there was simply an abundance of profit-taking, or lack of greed on the part of bears. But it seems quite strange for any stock to move this much over a routine announcement. Then again, any massive gain up or down is a trip. The plant won't be completed until early 2009 at the earliest

And as I write, the Nas has gone green. Hoku's day may just be starting.

Pupule Paul is slightly long HOKU.