Fear and no fear

10:14 am (Hawaii) Not long ago, perhaps a few days, the market seemed to tremble with the end of QE2 — the lingering aftereffects. But today? Stuff like Orbitz (OWW) shot up 26%. It was already up from recent lows in the 2.20s to 2.76 in the final half hour of the session. Then, from what I understand, CNBC touted the news of Orbitz's new deal with Virgin Australia.

How good is the deal? I've yet to see any numbers crunched down to specify even the potential of what it means for OWW. But it was enough for daytraders to take OWW from 2.76 to 3.18 before the closing bell. I bought OWW on its last short squeeze a month ago at 3.45, only to sell my teeny weeny position at 2.35 or so a week later. Of course, when the pain is too much, that's usually when smart shoppers open a position, not sell out. But for OWW, it's another day in the daytrader zoo. Where does it go in afterhours? In tomorrow's premarket?

Let's just say that fear is not in the market right now. Obliterated. OWW is back to being a favorite toy. So is GSVC, which hit a new high of 18.70 in the morning, but finally pulled back below 18 before the close. One thing is certain: whether it's an overhyped deal for a stock related to the wonky travel/airlines industries, or a knee-high stock that has a little toe in the sexiest IPO of the future (Facebook), daytraders have a sense of urgency. They have no fear of the present, but fear of the future — say Thursday or Friday or Monday — is coming. They trade recklessly and jump ship at the first sneeze, lest they also catch that dreaded piggy virus that plagues the majority of short-term traders.

Though OWW seems like the better value at 3.25 (afterhours), will it ever get a trigger mechanism like Facebook under its wings? No way. GSVC has a float of 3.34 million shares and could go to 10 just as easily as it could go to 25. But I'm touching neither here. With short-term daytraders and high-frequency robots dominating the action, it makes more sense to plant a seed, take a tiny or small position in an underappreciated name. Then wait. And wait. It breaks out, take half the profit off the table. Let the rest ride.

All that would matter is, who is the next GSVC or OWW? That would be a patient soul's game. Trying to time the ride when the world is typing frantically on CNBC hype is far too crowded far too often. I haven't mastered a darn thing, but I'm getting closer each day.

A crude hump day

5:52 am (Hawaii) There's crude oil up 3.8%. There's LNKD up 0.8%. The rest of the greenies on my Metals list is sparse. At 19% and mostly bear ETFs, it's a supremely negative day so far for the metals. DUST is up 4.7%, UCO rising higher on news that there's no news out of that Middle East meeting on production, ZSL up 2% ... Spot Gold is down to 1536 and Spot Silver at 36.62 (after dipping close to 36.00).

MCP (-8.4%), SVM (-8.1%), EXK (-7%), REE (-5.6%) and VL (-5.2%) are just a few of the players getting pinata-ed today. XG (-3.4%), AGQ (-2.2%), PAAS (-2.9%), it's fugly. It's not shocking. It's summer and the doldrums are here. I'm glad I mistakenly set my alarm for 1:21 pm instead of 1:21 am. How many traders opened positions in ZSL yesterday? It closed at 17.11 and opened today at 17.57. Now trading at 17.36. Unless you opened a position yesterday, you're in the red today. Did I need to 4+ hours of sleep for that? Naaah.

I'm now down almost $300 on OWW even though the position is teeny. This is a great reminder of why I stopped playing (getting played by) penny stocks in the first place years ago. The price almost always provides all the explanation necessary. But down this deep, near it's all-time low, it's pointless to sell. Another piece of positive news and OWW goes back up. It could double, triple, quadruple. Even with a Vegas-play-money mentality in this play, it still sucks to be holding the bag.

In case you're not convinced that OWW is a horrible buy, go back some years. OWW was a rumored takeover target with a buyout price of $26 to $28. Talk about cruel jokes. Priceline they were not.

Turd: Hoping to be wrong (June 8 2011)

(video) KSL News: Utah precious metals currency takes effect (June 1 2011)

Ow is right (updated)

4:15 am (Hawaii) While silver gets the runaround (again) and gold holds at higher levels, my tiny position in Orbitz is cause for concern. A sprinkling of misery as it went straight from 2.90 to 2.60 in these first 45 minutes of the session. It was so drastic, even I could see that the severity had to end at some point. This is why I played only with the smallest of amounts (of any trade in years) when I bought in a couple of days ago at 3.34. OWW is the right word, but it could pop in the next few weeks and months to previous levels at 4 and higher. If not, I'm out at Tuesday's closing price (2.21). I don't think OWW gets there, even with a crap economy.

Meanwhile, Brother Turd examines the puppet show and surmises that fundamentals in precious metals mean less to price action this morning than usual, and that's saying a lot.

Turd Ferguson: Overriding the fundamentals (June 3 2011)

Update Sat 9:00 am (Hawaii) Forgot to post the closing charts for Spot Gold and Silver. They held ground. What happens Sunday night, who knows? If price tumbles, ie puppet masters wreck it, I might go shopping for physical. Too bad there's no way to bet on the puppet masters other than to short PMs (ZSL, etc).

Pre-game Thursday

3:11 am (Hawaii) Big economic numbers due tomorrow that will sandwich with yesterday's manufacturing numbers. I guess that makes today the meat and cheese, or lack thereof. 52% of my Metals list is green, but it is a totally shallow, superficial layer. Almost all of those green premarket movers are less than 1.5% up, a truly lame sign.

AGQ is up 2.4%, but is off its HOD of 194 to 191.65. Most of the upside movers are less than 1% up, mostly in the 0.5% or less range. Looks fake, fake, fake.

As for OWW, it's hovering just above 3 and I'm underwater, which means I'm down about hardly anything. It's a teeny trade, but enough to keep my interest piqued. I may or may not hold down to 2.21, which is where it was at yesterday's close before the news from the courthouse (American Airlines). The 38.1% Fibonacci retrace level from yesterday's afterhours high is 3.05, which is just about where OWW is right now.

DGP is slightly up, and between DGP and OWW, I am still 87% cash. Lots of work to do this morning, so I may not pay much attention to the market. I will be watching gold and silver closely, though, for the possibility of buying more physical on a bigger dip.

Out of orbit?

11:23 am (Hawaii) Soon as Bill Griffith of CNBC passed along news of Orbitz's courthouse victory over American Airlines, the stock rocketed. It had already risen off its closing price of 2.21 and was in the 2.80 range. I deliberated and passed. Just don't know enough about that industry. But sure enough, it paused and ripped higher and higher going to 3.58 before pulling back.

The Fibonacci level on a retrace was 3.05, and that's precisely where OWW dipped. Unfortunately, I was occupied with work, so OWW bounced off 3.05 back up to 3.40 and has been leveling out since. Now at 3.22. I don't know if I'll try a small position at 3.05 or so, but it's not a horrible risk. This is a stock that started three years or so ago at 14 and found its level halfway down at 7, and has struggled since. This looks like the anti-PCLN. But at some point, profitable companies (is this one, I don't know) are worth more than $1 or $2 per share.

Tough call on where OWW goes tomorrow. Realistically, this would've been strictly a quick trade off the news had I stepped in at 2.80. I would've probably have sold around 3.30-3.40. A quick, decent profit. Everything else is too convoluted, too heavy and too much pain to deal with. How bad can a travel company be when Priceline has shown how it should be done? Anyone arguing that OWW should go back to $7 had better have some proof, especially with crude oil prices above $100/barrel and fewer dollars for travelers to spend.