Pandora's box

6:37 am (Hawaii) My Regular watch list is 15% green, 83% red. What a mess. The leaders are bearish ETFs (FAZ, TVIX, QID, TZA) along with TLT. Violence, Greece, video. And it's only Wednesday. 

Fast Money Halftime noting that Pandora's IPO today comes when Greece is riled up. 

6:54 am (Hawaii) Input from Dennis Gartman on FM Halftime:

"You do have money going into gold, but in non-US dollar terms. It's going into gold in sterling terms, yen terms, not US dollars at all. The circumstances in Greece help gold. It creates a different type of gold investment. (It's going) higher. The best that one can do is get the trend right. ($5,000) is absurd. I see gold at $1,650. Stock prices look weak, a global economic slowdown is taking place. I'm not sure we'll have a recession, but look at what copper is doing. (China) is just one-time data. On balance, purchasing data in the US and (globally) are all turning down."

Dan Norcini: European sovereign debt woes erupting once again (June 15 2011)

Pretty candles

Short-term candlestick interpretation view. The charts I like, I'll take a close look in the morning and see how they open. Won't be buying any gap downs in this climate.

These look quite attractive on paper, plasma, LCD, what-eh-vurr...
QID, TLT

These are worth a look, but not as promising.
UCO, USO, SLV, PHYS, GLD, PAAS, SLW

These charts, not so much. Dislike!
HAIN, CSTR, NGD, GMCR, VZ, SPY, DIS, EXK, OIH, RLOC, TBT, IPI, QQQQ, CMG, GOOG, AMZN, F, SBUX, AAPL, MOS, LULU, APC, OPEN, LVS, PSUN, VCLK, C, BIDU, FCX, NFLX, X, GNK, FAS

These are nice, but I don't trust them overnight.
TVIX, VXX

Aaaaaaaannnd ...

Here's some stuff that finished strong in the final 15-45 minutes, if you're inclined to believe that the big boys dive into the sea and scoop gems at dirt-cheap prices late in the day.

TVIX, VXX, QID, TLT, SPY, VZ, OIH, DIS, EXK and ... that's it. Everything else sucked at the close.

100% cash here. Someone else can try and be a hero. I'll save all my bullets for the right time, maybe in the morning.

Friday frenzy?

It's 4:35 a.m. in Hawaii and my screen probably looks a lot like yours: Everything is pretty much green. AAPL, which touched 330 yesterday before closing at 332 — the level I liked 10 or so days ago, but chose to not buy at — is moving up on massive early volume. It's only a few minutes in, but shares are over 334.

The bounce off 330 has been fairly notable, but whether this sticks, nobody really knows. All I can surmise with a guess is that share price will fluctuate for days, perhaps weeks. That's how AAPL rolls after earnings reports. Roll it shall.

Update, 6:48 a.m. AAPL back to 330+. Predictable enough on options exiry. Now 329.87 and there go the stop-loss orders. I'm 100% cash, not touching any Apples today.

Update, 12:57 p.m. Slept nice this morning, woke up to find a lot of red bleeding in the market. I can view it without the emotional tangle since going flat the other day, down 1% for the year based on a whopping single round-trip trade on AAPL. But to see that many other traders are down 3%, 8%, even 10% already is a bit disheartening. It's also not entirely unexpected. All the bulls were at the front of the ship and it was tipping over, even as I jumped on board last week. I hope every escapes unscathed, but the market has no mercy. Stick your finger in and your entire arm can be taken unless extreme caution to exercised.

AAPL closed at 326.66, roughly 8.7% down since its afterhours high of 357 earlier this week. A 10% haircut would bring it down to 322 or so. A 20% chomp would bring AAPL down to 285. I don't see a fall below the latter number — 1) Fundamentals are too strong, and 2) President Obama needs to gain public approval in this third year of his term.

With Nasdaq down (-0.41%), AAPL slipped 1.83% on slightly higher volume. GOOG fell 2.5% to 611 after a huge runup. It was at 640 before I crashed out this morning.

The issues I watched more closely today, stuff that may work fairly well in a choppy market, were a mixed bag. TBT dropped 1.3% while TLT (its opposite, more or less) gained 0.76%. VXX gained 1.79 percent, which surprised me. When the market sold off some yesterday, VXX was in the red. There's more negativity in the market now and I missed the VXX ride today.

The hottest momo rockets continued to fizzle. RLOC (-5.1%), LULU (-0.5%), NFLX (-1.9%).

Another weird turn was FAS (+1.9%). Finnies were hot, which kept the Dow Jones green. C (+1.5%) and JPM (+1.1%) did quite nice. GS, not so much (+0.3%).

A mega winner was ISRG (+12.7%) on more than six times normal volume after earnings. GE hit one out, too (+7.1%) with good earnings, and DIS was rolling (+1.5%) while AMZN ate dirt (-2.7%).

This is the kind of action that whipsaws those of us with a penchant to go all in (or close to it), those of us who react to defeat by reaching in and going double in. Don't do it, people! Step away, let the market do its thing, which right now is eating its own vomit. If you must re-enter, do it one bit at a time. Give it a chance to get back on its feet. Otherwise, you're betting on home runs while the market is dealing with tremors.

Fold-em Friday

Dow Jones 9.686.48 -46.05 -0.47%
Nasdaq 2,091.79 -9.57 -0.46%
S&P 500 1,022.58 -4.79 -0.47%

Coulda been better. Coulda been worse. There's irrational exuberance and there's irrational bearishness.

We're somewhere in between. Just about everything was down again, though copper and steel weren't too bad. FCX (58.21 +0.05%) and PKX (94.74 +0.07%) did better than US Steel (X 37.66 -1.26%). It's always interesting when copper is up while the FXI is down (39.02 -0.91%).

While the Euro (FXE) was up slightly (125.08 +0.25%), the US Dollar (UUP) was down (24.57 -0.12%). That should make for a positive US market, right? Not today, not with oil (USO 32.64 -0.70%) down.

GLD (118.49 +1.24%) and SLV (17.46 +0.11%) took a pause from their sharp declines.

While GLD and SLV have sold off, TLT is still above 100.

Inverse ETNs did well. TZA gained 3.23% to 8.63.

Real estate bears had their way. DRV (Real Estate Bear 3x) gained 5.98% to 8.33. SRS (UltraShort ProShares) gained 3.77% (30.42).

FAZ gained 3.05% to 18.31 while finnies were lukewarm. GS lost just 0.05% to 131.08 and Citi gained 0.26% to 3.79.

STD dropped 1.36% to 10.92 after some massive gains.

AAPL tested its recent low again, bouncing off 243 to finish at 246.94. I've wanted 260 and 250, but I'll hold off on an entry point until this iPhone antenna issue has some kind of resolution.

Still 100% cash for more than 3 weeks. Watching from afar is best at this point.

Waddling Wednesday

Dow Jones 9,774.02 -96.28 -0.98%
NASDAQ 2,109.24 -25.94 -1.21%
S&P 500 1,030.71 -10.53 -1.01%

It's becoming a habit, this getting up with an hour left in the market. I was up by 9:15 am Hawaii time, early enough to see AAPL trade at 253.33, down a few bucks from yesterday's lower close. I rubbed the makapiapia out of my eyes and AAPL was at 252. A few minutes later, shares dropped below 251 and set to plunge below 250.

That's where it held ground, at 250.01, and closed at 251.46, down 1.84%. Never mind the repeated rumor about Apple and Verizon coming to terms on a deal for iPhone 4; the stock has tanked since hitting 279 little more than a week ago. From a short-term low of 242 to 279 in one week was drastic, and now AAPL fades despite good news. It had to sell off on the release of the new iPhone, but market forces are always too strong, even for Apple.

There just aren't enough buyers out there. There just aren't enough reasons to go long here. The recovery has slowed, China is continuing to hit the brakes and people are on vacation. That makes it a playground for the high-frequency traders and their robots.

TECH KINGS
GOOG dropped 2.05% to 444.95 and is looking more attractive than ever. But I continue to wait. The Apple-Verizon partnership could hamper Google's Droid X campaign. Two winners are definitely possible in the future world of mobile communications and advertising.

Apparently, Google hasn't given up on China yet. Until there's something firm between the Googsters and the People's Republic, though, it's superficial.

ALL THINGS CHINA
Baidu finished up 0.75% to 68.08, a nice surprise despite falling off an intraday high of 70.35.

FXI lost 0.46% to 39.13 while Freeport-McMoran (FCX) dropped 3.18% to 59.13. US Steel (X) fell 1.43% to 38.55 and Posco (PKX) lowered to 94.32 (-0.55%).

PetroChina (109.73 -0.71%) dipped again, but CNOOC was up (170.17 +0.81%).

Solars Yingli Green Energy (10.18 +3.04%) and Trina Solar (17.28 +0.12%) also bucked the general trend.

ENERGY
US Oil Fund ETF (USO) slid 0.61% to 33.96 and natural gas plays petered out in response. My list of 40 natty gassers dropped 0.83%. Interestingly, Westport Innovations (WPRT), my favorite, gained 1.88% to 15.69. UNG picked up 1.04% to 7.75 and REXX climbed 2.75% to 10.10.

In accordance with crude oil, FSLR dipped 0.52% to 113.83.

In a related clean energy play, Tesla ran wild on its second day of trading only to falter at the finish. TSLA closed at 23.89 on Tuesday, opened at 25.96 today and reached 30.42 before selling off. Shares closed at 23.83 (-0.25%) on volume of 17.1 million shares.

EURO ZONE
FXE gained moderately (0.26%) to 121.87 despite unrest in Greece and more troubles for Spain. Merkel's candidate's victory was good, apparently, for the Euro.

Banco Santander handled the negative news from Moody's well, gaining 2.04% to 10.50. IRE lost 2.37% to 3.29 as austerity measures in Ireland continue to wreak havoc. NBG dropped 2.69% to 2.17, nearing a one-year low.

SAFE PLAYS
GLD (121.68 +0.34%) and SLV (18.21 +0.44%) were nice trades today, as was TLT (101.75 +0.67%).

PROTECTION
ETNs continued to provide shelter to beleaguered longs. FAZ gained big again, adding 3.57% to 17.42. TYP rose 5.48% as tech stocks dipped. BGZ (18.25 +3.22%) and TZA (8.18 +3.41%) were also big winners.

VXX gained 1.33% to 31.20, but didn't exactly trade up while AAPL declined — an unusual lack of coupling that I've seen only twice in the spring and summer. It probably says more about the level of familiarity the general market has with this level of volatility. It's enough to shake out weak longs and conservative traders, but not enough to be truly defined as a panic. Plus, volume is so light. For AAPL to make a higher percentage move than VXX says it all. VXX may have topped near term.

QID (UltraShort QQQ ProShares) did much better, gaining 3.13% to 20.04.

STRANGE BUT TRUE
Shares of CBOE gained 2.49% to 32.55.

DNDN continued its crash, falling 3.75% to 32.33, then losing another 15.47% to 27.33 in afterhours trading. It may be another bear raid on Dendreon shares.

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services posted this online and is seeking public input on the effects of Dendreon's prostate cancer treatment. It seems to be a routine CMS procedure, but shares are tanking nonetheless.

If it's another bear raid without substantial facts and news, this could be another buying opportunity. But I'm staying out and I remain 100% cash in this circus of a market. The elephants are on the loose and I'm staying way up in the bleacher seats.

Terrible Tuesday

Dow Jones 9,870.30 -268.30 -2.65%
NASDAQ 2,135.18 -85.47 -3.85%
S&P 500 1,041.24 -33.33 -3.1%

Did you get bitten today? Did you stay long in this flaky market without protection? Do you walk the streets and let thugs take your hard-earned money? I've been 100% cash for nearly three weeks, but if I were ever to go long, I'd definitely hedge my bets — be honest, everything in the market is a calculated guess — with VXX or FAZ and maybe have some safer plays like GLD and TLT.

TECH KINGS
Apple has its share of complaints over iPhone 4, but they continue to sell, sell, sell what may be the most addictive piece of technology on the planet. Shares, though, bit the dust today, down 4.52% to 256.17. This is an entry price I could love, but even here I want to wait for 250. I'd rather catch this ride on the way up than possibly on the way further down.

So, all the Android devotees who happen to be iPhone haters should be loving Google, but shares dropped 3.77% to 454.26. I like this price, too, but I'm watching from afar.

BIDU fell 9.23% to 67.57 as China did a swan dive. Still the search king of China with the backing of Big Brother. Sub 60 would be compelling.

NFLX closed down 4.28% to 112.58. The swings here are wild and I don't like it long term against the competition that is pounding down the door, like Apple. On that note, IMAX dipped as low as 14.28 before ending the day at 14.88 (-4.43%). Like Netflix, Imax has serious competition coming sooner rather than later.

EURO ZONE
FCX was down only 0.63% (121.56), but craziness across the region (Greek riots, German leadership issue, Spanish unemployment, yadayada) did nothing good for global markets. NBG was flat at 2.23. No banks were burned down. However, IRE dropped 6.91% (3.37).

SAFE PLAYS
GLD closed barely up (121.27 +0.15%) while TLT (20-year Treasury Bond) was up 1.09% to 101.07. TLT has a chance to stay above 100 for awhile. There's no real catalyst coming to the market for the bulls in the visible future.

ENERGY
USO (US Oil Fund ETF) dropped 2.95% to 34.17. BP went the other way, gaining 2.29% to 27.75. Not touching that POS.

Natural gas wilted. UNG caved 3.88% to 7.67. My list of 40 natty gassers got smoked again, dropping 5.27% today. They dipped into the red as a group for the first time since Obama's clean energy speech nearly four weeks ago. That's bad news on bad news. WPRT, which was once the leader with a 30% gain, is now up just 4.83%. PETD still has a sizable gain of 25.83%, but almost everything else is in the red or has a modest single-digit gain. No catalyst, no luck.

First Solar (FLSR) also fell, losing 4.03% to 114.42. One of last week's hotties, Trina Solar (TSL), dripped 5.06% to 17.26.

Chinese energy ate dust today. PetroChina (110.51 -3.45%) and CNOOC (168.80 -4.44%) sank. Whimsical solar play Yingli Green Energy (YGE) lowered to 9.88 (5.64%).

CHINA & HEAVY METAL
FXI tumbled 4.03% to 39.31. Freeport-McMoran (FCX) crumbled 5.55% to 61.07. US Steel (X) gave back 5.87% tp 39.11 and Posco (PKX) gave up 6.22% to 94.84.

PROTECTION
VXX finished with a 9.26% gain to 30.79 after hitting a high of 31.34 in the final hour. Shares were below 25 last week.

FAZ moved big, 10.48% to 16.82. I've had good trades in FAZ before, but haven't touched it in months. Finnies are now just a wee bit too fucking crazy for me to decipher most times.

Staying in 100% cash while insanity prevails on Wall Street. Have fun!

Tepid Tuesday

Dow Jones 10,293.52 -148.89 -1.43%
NASDAQ 2,261.80 -27.29 -1.19%
S&P 500 1,095.31 -17.89 -1.61%

I'll say it again: this is a market that can have traders sprinting on those mouse wheels like a treadmill all morning and afternoon. It can also be an opportunity to shut the computer down, take a ride and enjoy some sunshine and pristine waters at the local beach. In my case, there are many choices. An hour just chilling in the water under a hot Hawaiian sun and some cool trade winds was the perfect tonic for my day.

I missed AAPL's rebound today as the news of 3 million iPads sold carried over. But I didn't miss another early gain and later decline. Volume is so light at this time of year and my time off is so limited, there are simple choices for those of us in the middle of the Pacific during the hours of 2 am to 2 pm.

1. Sleep, hit the beach, relax.
2. Sleep, wake up every few hours, check the market, back to sleep.
3. Watch every tick for 12 hours straight.

I prefer 1 and 2 for the rest of this month. I'll be on the lookout for AAPL shares below 260, maybe 250. The last two lows were 231 and 242. Expecting another low below 250 would be expecting a bit too much, I believe. But AAPL has proven that it will consolidate for months before exploding again, and we're in the midst of that now, possibly.

Fund managers don't want to be out of AAPL as Q2 closes at the end of this month. But they'll be more than happy to shake out weak hands and grab all they can below 260 or 250. So I wait.

TECH KINGS
AAPL gained 1.36% to 273.85. It's a dangerous scenario, potentially. There are traders who want their small gains on a daily basis. There are longs who wisely have held since 78 last year (March 2009). If the global economy tanks, everyone gets washed out to sea without mercy. Caution advised.

GOOG fell just a bit (-0.47%) to 486.96. Is this the opportunity to jump in before the Google train leaves the station? Or is a ledge below the cliff, and there's nowhere to go but down? I don't know. I'm asking you.

CHINA & HEAVY METAL
BIDU couldn't buck the trend for a second day in a row and lost 0.89% to 75.68. The FXI lost 1.56% to 40.95, giving back a small portion of recent gains. FCX lost 4.25% to 65.19 and US Steel (X) dropped 3.07% to 43.59.

It's a short-term trader's paradise.

EURO
The FXE lost just 0.33% (122.38) while the US dollar (UUP) was up 0.16% to 25.07.

FINANCIALS
Stateside, Goldman Sachs lost 2.14% to 134.79 and C dropped 1.99% to 3.94. Abroad, Santander (STD) lost 1.83% to 11.25, IRE got smacked (3.88 -7.18%) and NBG slipped 2.03% to 2.41.

FAZ fed off the selloff and gained 4.92% to 14.92.

ENERGY
If all of this felt vaguely bearish or even bullish in your optimistic view, try this: All 40 of the stocks on my Nat Gas list finished in the red today, a first since Obama's clean energy speech 19 days ago. Red, red, red. There's just sorta exception in VNR, which broke even for the day.

If the Nat Gas sector, which has an edge over most, can't get positive, it might be a setback for the broader market. Sure, Gulf drillers may have gotten a reprieve today, but for how long? Does the State of Louisiana really think it can win against the President? Do we really need for all drillers to go back to work in the Gulf? There has to be a reasonable compromise that can keep workers employed without risking one or two more preposterous catastrophes.

USO (United States Oil Fund ETF) finished down 0.93% even with the Louisiana challenge. Meanwhile, the ultra-short oil ETF, SCO, gained 1.7% to 14.35, oddly enough.

SAFETY
VXX gained again, this time 1.01% to 26.49 and making those who entered below 25 geniuses.

FAZ was far from the only inverse ETN to gain nicely today. DRV (Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3x) gained 9.74% to 6.87.

TZA (Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3x) ran up 6.29% to 6.97.

GLD reversed recent downward momentum and gained 0.88% to close at 121.45. TLT gained 1.19% to 98.57.

All in all, some interesting viewing from the bleachers. It might not be the worst time to pair AAPL and VXX, since there's no guarantee whatsoever of direction for either. But I'm not interested in that kind of excitement for now.

World Cup Wednesday

Dow Jones 10,434.17 +24.71 +0.24%
NASDAQ 2,307.16 +1.23 +0.05%
S&P 500 1,116.04 +1.43 +0.13%

Anyone like soccer? I have no idea who's going to win the World Cup. It's entertaining to a point, but like those weird kazoo noisemakers that are so popular in South Africa, it will soon pass.

The market was relatively narrow today for the most part. I slept halfway through, strangely not disappointed to see AAPL continue its climb while I watch from the bleachers. Though Apple continues to amaze and I have my doubts about this propped-up market, there are some interesting twists and turns coming as a result of BP's doomsday disaster.

CNOOC (CEO) is a Chinese energy play that I enjoyed watching two, three years ago, but never traded. It remains in a role of little brother to Goliath PetroChina (PTR) in that part of the world known as the Middle Kingdom.

What's interesting about CNOOC now is that it could be in acquisitive mode now that BP is in deep-shit territory. If BP is forced to unload property to raise cash, CNOOC will be ready and willing, according to this story. This is far from breaking news; CEO was at a low of 152 nine days ago and closed today at 173.

Yup, I hear ya. Holy crap.

It's BP's other wells that CNOOC is interested in. It's like breaking up the Yankees, basically. Most major-league teams would be happy to snag A-Rod or Mariano Rivera or Derek Jeter or ... especially at a discount. That makes CEO an interesting watch. I'm not entertaining any notions of buying it here at 173 — already at a 14% gain since June 8. But I'm keeping an eye on it. CEO was listed as a "Buy If" by American Bulls on the candlestick chart reading coming into today's session. With a fractional drop today, CEO is probably still in a near-breakout level.

The market rallied into the close on low volume again, though AAPL had plenty of trading and closed at 271.91 (+1.74%). Shares hit a high of 272.90 early, but dipped below 270 by the end of the first hour of trading. After a rally back near 272, shares fell to 270 before rallying in the final half hour. That kept VXX below 26.00 for the day; it broke above that level briefly before AAPL mounted that late comeback.

US FINANCIALS
Flat, flat, flat. GS up 0.19% to 137.32. C down 0.75% to 3.96. FAZ, the inverse ultra-short ETF, gained just 0.42%.

EURO
STD, which fell flat on its face yesterday, gained 2.45% to 11.27 today. Such a nice move lately after dipping below 10 in recent weeks. There's a lot of confidence in Santander despite mediocre jobs numbers in Espanol. Other Euro banks did not so well. IRE fell 0.96% to 4.14 and NBG dropped 0.81% to 2.45.

The euro (FXE) rose 0.71% to 123.49 while the dollar (UUP) slipped 0.60% to 24.95.

SAFE PLAYS
GLD gained 1.3% to 121.90 and TLT (20-year Treasurys ETF) picked up 0.81% to 97.85.

TECH/INTERNET KINGS
AAPL finished up 1.71% to 271.82 and GOOG was flat (500.08 -0.24%). BIDU lost 3.13% to 72.47

RETAIL/ENTERTAINMENT
NFLX gained 0.91% to 125.80 while CSTR fell 2.32% to 51.29. The momo is gone for CSTR, which rose yesterday on news of a deal with Paramount for early releases of DVDs. CSTR lost almost all its gain intraday yesterday and continues to sell. Below 50 might warrant a closer look.

ENERGY
While BP lost just 0.44% to 31.71, USO (oil ETF) dropped nearly 1% to 35.14, halting a significant run lately.

The Nat Gas sector got hammered for a second day in a row, but gains since Obama's clean energy speech remain massive. UNG bucked the trend and closed at 8.74, a gain of 2.83%. WPRT (18.98 -1.15%) and CLNE (17.28 -1.43%) declined, as did 32 of the 40 on my Natty Gassers list.

WPRT paces that list with a gain of 29.3% in the past two weeks. PQ is up 28.8% and PETD is up 25.1%.

HEAVY METAL
FCX lost 1.82% and FXI dropped 1.17% as copper took a hit. US Steel (X) remained turbulent, losing 2.67% to 44.10. SLV gained nicely (1.38%) to 18.33.

A whole lotta shakin' for whole lotta nothin'

Dow Jones 10,409.46 +4.69 +0.05%
NASDAQ 2,305.93 +0.05 +0.00%
S&P 500 1,114.61 -0.62 -0.06%

I never did get to bed. Napped at the desk and stayed out of this kooky market. Hard to see how or why AAPL has moved so much the past few sessions, but maybe ... well, more on that later.

Not a whole lot to say about today. Most stocks swayed and swirled, but not in a way that got anyone nauseous. Maybe everybody was watching Congress grill BP's Tony Hayward. Or smart traders are enjoying summer vacation.

EURO
FXE was up for much of the session before closing at 122.64 (-0.35%) while UUP (25.10, +0.32%) is slightly up. The Spaniards upped the ante on the Germans, but it was Spain that buckled. EWP (Spain ETF) fell 1.12% to 35.33 and STD dropped 1.79% to 10.99.

FINANCIALS
GS barely finished higher (137.13 +0.17%) while C dropped 0.13% to 3.98. IRE (4.18 -3.02%) and NBG (2.47 -1.59%) pulled back from recent gains. I'm apathetic about this sector. Up, down, up, down ... sometimes because of news. Sometimes because of nothing. It's stupid so I steer clear.

TECH KINGS
AAPL zoomed 2.92% to 267.28, a gain of more than 7 bucks on decent volume. Is there really a difference in Apple since two or three weeks one week ago, when AAPL hovered at 242? Not really. Sure, iPhone G4 demand is huge, but is that really a surprise? Could be that hedge funds and mutuals are piling back in before Q2 ends at the end of this month. That's two weeks away! I'm staying out and waiting for yet another pullback.

GOOG closed up just a hair to 501.34. Much as I like the future for Google, 500 is definitely a psychological barrier. I still prefer GOOG below 490, but I'll buy AAPL before GOOG.

NFLX rose again, nearly 1% to 124.67. CSTR gave up practically all its early gain and closed at 52.51, just .02% higher. The news about the new-release deal with Paramount pushed CSTR shares up to 54.76, but this week's rally turned buyers into sellers by this afternoon. I like CSTR for the time being as a short-term trade. Might get in below 50. Or not.

SAFE PLAYS
GLD closed down a skosh at 120.33, TLT was up a hair to 97.06 ... I hesitate to call copper king FCX a safe play given China's cautious approach to growth. FCX was down just a tiny bit to 67.03 and US Steel (X) dropped 1.31% to 45.33.

ENERGY
BP gained after its chairman and CEO met with Obama. BP closed at 31.85 (+1.43%) on the news that it will suspend its dividend payout and set up a $20 billion fund for Gulf businesses destroyed by the oil "volcano."

The oil sector was up slightly, but it has traded quite well in spite of BP. The inverse ETN for oil, SCO, dropped nearly 2%.

Natural gas started horribly, rallied, and folded by the close. Only 12 of my Nat Gas 40 finished positive today, not too bad considering the rampage the sector had been running since Obama's clean energy speech nearly two weeks ago. MMR finished up 3.75% to 12.44 after leading the group most of the day. KOG, REXX and FTK were also top gainers. Two of my favorites, CLNE and WPRT, finished in the red. CLNE dropped 3.49% to 17.54 and WPRT fell 1.13% to 19.19.

I like WPRT below 19 and had my chance in the morning, but the market was underwater at the time and I decided to play it safe. I like WPRT's balance sheet a lot. Don't really like CLNE's numbers, but as a clean energy play, CLNE is almost as intriguing as WPRT. I'm sure value investors might agree partway on WPRT, probably more so when it was trading at 3 bucks in March of last year. At these levels, it's still reasonably attractive, but I'll be choosy about my price. Haggling is good.

Nat Gas is one of the best sectors to trade and/or follow now that it has an edge of sorts (Obama's verbal backing and nothing more yet) and the world is sick and tired of crude oil's consequences. Whether Nat Gas as a sector is more of a market indicator now than it was last month, well, I wouldn't assume that. I do feel that it truly does give a fingerprint on the market's tone. Natty Gas is a fairly safe play even in the midst of speculation, oversupply and the emotional content of the broad market, i.e. Mother Earth bleeding into the Gulf 24/7.

Even with today's pullback in Nat Gas, five of my 40 are up at least 20% in two weeks, including WPRT (+30.7%). UNG, which was up to 8.83 two days ago, fulfilled my expectations since and closed today at 8.49 (-3.85%). Again, UNG is a buy below 8 and a sell above 8.50, or maybe it's more like a sell at 8.75 now. Higher highs, higher lows and the sector shows no signs of cooling off. I'd guess that Nat Gas will remain hot as long as we can all see that Gulf oil live video.

After that, who knows? I just want to be in the sector's top play rather than bet big on a skittish natty gasser penny when the ice starts to melt.

Housing starts, tax credits, blahblahblaaaah

Look, economic data is always vital to the market's lifeblood. But this is one of those days when overbought is just overbought, and it takes very little to send stocks into a sea of red. It wouldn't take much of a catalyst to turn things around for another low-volume rally, but it hasn't happened yet and there's nothing ahead that will be, apparently.

As many as 10 nat gas plays on my list were in the green 30 minutes ago, but now, one hour into the session, there are just three. FAZ has moved up, now a gain of 1.62% to 14.50. SCO, TLT and VXX are also up fractionally. Dow is down 60, NAS down 13 (-0.59%) and S&P down 7 (-0.64%).

Majority of natty gassers still showing a double-digit gain since Obama's clean energy speech, led by WPRT (+27.63%) over the past 13 days. Looks like a flat session and a continued selloff in store, as expected.

So much for Mutual Fund Monday

Dow Jones 10,190.89 -20.18 -0.20%
NASDAQ 2,243.96 +0.36 +0.02%
S&P 500 1,089.63 -1.97 -0.18%

Back from some work, catching up with today's flop-a-roo action. Bull stampede out the exits. How lame.

I once was a diehard Apple fiend. Even without ownership of an iPod or iPhone, I was and still am a lover of Apple products. Hell yeah!

But ask me if I'd trade AAPL here and I'll tell you, hell no. Today was a prime example. AAPL was up to 258 early and traded down to 254.01 after hours. I'm watching my recorded Fast Money Halftime and they're all bullish about the morning move. Can't blame 'em; Dow was up big. NASDAQ was up bigger on Apple's push.

Things closed badly. Life on thin ice goes that way most times.

METALS
FCX barely held its gain, finishing at 65.26 (+0.51%) while FXI dipped a bit (40.11 -0.40%) and X was down 0.58% to 44.56. SLV flat (+0.06%) at 17.86. This sector was due for a time out, but any time rally leaders hit a pit stop, it's wise to be cautious that it doesn't turn into a complete stall-out.

EURO MADNESS
FXE closed up at 121.89 (+1.09%), a nice gain, but off its intraday high (122.61). UUP down almost 1% to 28.43.

SAFE PLAYS
GLD down fractionally (-0.34%) to 119.60 and TLT down 0.51% to 96.91.

ENERGY
USO up by a hair (+0.29%) to 34.33 and inverse ETN SCO down a skosh (-0.07%) to 14.93. Interesting since BP got chomped by 9.71% down to 30.67. Just when it seemed BP got a nice technical bounce, it may have turned into more of a lower high than a climb back to the mid-30s. BP dropping to the mid-20s?

Natural Gas simply seems so much palatable at this point. My weekly update on the 40 natty gassers on my list was very informative, but I still didn't enter a position in any of them, not even my five favorites. Today's action was interesting. Little more than an hour before the close, 32 of the 40 were in the green. By the bell, only 17 were green and a handful of those were basically break-evens.

MMR continued its astounding rise since Obama's clean energy speech 11 days ago. MMR rose 6.18% today and is now up 13.51% to 11.68 since Obama's declaration. WPRT remained hot, picking up 5.21% to 18.99 and is now up a whopping 29.24% since Obama. This is one of my five faves, being a pure play with a solid balance sheet. It's not the finest of fundamentals, though, so some drastic profit-taking could hit the share price any time. Come on, 29% in less than two weeks ... are you going to be greedy? You can always re-enter after it sells off. I'd sell half and trade that amount for now, and let the rest ride. That's just me.

UNG, the notorious U.N.G., was up 4.65% today to 8.61. Quite nice considering it lagged while the entire sector caught fire last week. Clearly a buy below 8.00 and a sell above 8.50. PETD was up 4.04% to 25.98 and is now up 24.72% since Obama. Also up nicely was PQ, +2.70% to 7.60. PQ now up 22.19% since Obama.

The natty gassers I really like — CLNE (16.99 +0.83%), HGT (21.45 -1.7%), PSE (24.96 -0.64%) and SWN (43.54 -0.84%) — were middling at best today. I'd rather stick with these issues, which have solid balance sheets and little to no debt, than risk the acidic atmosphere of so-so natty gassers that are trading mostly on daytrader momentum (low floats).

FINANCIALS
FAS down 1.43% to 22.49. FAZ up 1.26% to 15.30.

GS dropped 1.62% to 133.44. It's just ugly down there. When financial uber-bull Dick Bove adjusted his estimates lower for GS last week, that was as rock-bottom as it gets. Or does it get worse? C broke even today (3.88), while Euro banks were varied. IRE (4.05 +0.25%), NBG (2.43 +2.53%) and STD (10.45, -0.95%) doing their usual quirky moves. STD has been more steady, bouncing out of the 9-10 range every time. Spain has major unemployment issues, but as a whole seems far more sane than Greece.

Thin ice. Please avoid.

I'm staying 100% cash. Didn't touch VXX after hours. That means it'll probably pop in the AM. Whatever. Take caution. This market is icy hot. Or hot icy. I'll get my sleep, trail at a safe distance and be selective.

Leaders tumbling

FCX is way off its high of the day and is near its low, now 65.74 US Steel (X) is at 44.98, off its high of 46.26. FXI is down fractionally, also near its low.

Is the run done? GLD and SLV also flat. TLT down 0.55%.

Bubblicious NFLX is still up 127.15, up 5.4%, near its high. I like the numbers for Netflix. I just don't see it dominating much longer with digital content and entertainment competition coming up the yin yang sooner rather than later.

Chicken or the egg?

Doesn't matter which came first to the bulls. They're doing the funky chicken dance this morning with the Dow up 212 points (+2.2%, down from its highs, but still...), NAS +40 (+1.9%) and S&P +21 (2.1%).

Futures were juicy going into the opening bell thanks to good news from Spain and China. Lack of bad news in a market that was still oversold after that bear trap/head fake into yesterday's close, and woila: instant hammering of bears and waffling traders. (I'd classify myself as the latter.)

Some of the leaders from yesterday are kicking tail today. FCX (+4.4%, 63.39), X (+3.9%, 42.96), FXI (+2.3%, 40.00). If copper is leading this leg of the rally and China is devouring this orangey metal, along with its positive news this morning, this truly might be the bounce back to bull territory. Even SLV is up slightly.

Financials are doing solid, too, with C (+0.78%, 3.90), IRE (+6.1%, 3.83), STD (+8.3%, 9.74). FAS is up 4.9%. Ka-Powww!

Money has clearly shifted out of safe havens like GLD (-1.1%), TLT (-0.8%), UUP (-0.97%). Tech giants AAPL (+1.5%, 246.96) and (GOOG +2.1%, 483.75) are keeping pace somewhat with the market. BIDU (+3.7%, 69.90) and NFLX (+1.93%, 117.66) are doing nicely, too, but most of the top gainers on my list are two- and three-letter issues — non-NASDAQ plays.

The leader, of course, is BP, now up 12.2% to 32.74 following yesterday's 15% plunge. I don't plan on trading BP ever, but it finally hit rock bottom, no pun intended, and was due for a major bounce.

Bear train caboose

We're in a rut, trading in a somewhat narrow range in lieu of great news and additional horrific news. For now, a small position in VXX is all I have. Except for a one-hour span on Monday (or was it Tuesday?), VXX and AAPL have mirrored each other like a fine tango pair. During that hour, they traded mostly in the same weak direction with little volume. But today, they were definitely at odds with each other again, and this is why I have liked this as a pair/hedge before.

Charts don't pertain to leveraged ETFs like VXX as they do to "normal" stocks, but it's still a useable visual to put things a bit in perspective.

Here's a longer-term look at VXX. Six months in VXX galaxian time is 60,000 years on Planet Earth.

My small position in VXX leaves me in 72% cash, 28% long volatility (VXX).

VXX 6-month chart (daily)

The 3-month chart gives a better look at VXX, as if it actually responds to Bollinger bands. My guess is 99% of VXX traders hold their shares for less than 3 months. More like 3 hours.

VXX 3-month (daily)

VXX 2-day (5-minute bars) vs. AAPL, FCX, TLT, GLD, S&P 500

FCX, a copper king, was a huge gainer early in the day and seemed set to close with strength. But it faded with the rest of the market. Safe havens like GLD and TLT were middling at best, while VXX closed hard and fast. I missed a chance to enter at 30.50 and 30.75 even though I smelled bull wimpishness at mid-day. I'm content, though, to rely more on action and movement rather than hunches.

Candlestick analysis: Again, VXX is not a good read by charts or technical analysis. Still, noteworthy that it's a "Sell If" (American Bulls). Shares are at 31.57 after hours. Often trades down in the next day's premarket from afterhours price, but I may still hold here.

Wimpy Wednesday

Dow Jones 9,899.25 -40.73 -0.41%
NASDAQ 2,158.85 -11.72 -0.54%
S&P 500 1,055.65 -6.35 -0.60%

Sure enough, the market turned shortly after mid-day and tanked. It was thin volume through the day in most stocks and ETFs, and the thin ice melted under pressure. People just selling into rallies, no surprise, though the bulls held the market up as long as they could.

I entered VXX late at 31.11, sold for a small loss at 30.80 and watched it climb up over 31 again. Re-entered before the bell at 31.33 and will probably hold overnight. The bulls had their chance and gave the ball back to the bears. Bernanke's positive comments about the state of the economy had a life span of about 2 hours before they dissipated into thin air. So we topped short term as I suspected.

Watching AAPL sink to 245, 244, 243 ... it's a quiet stretch now that iPhone G4 is out. The critics are having their say about the closed system. Par for the course. Euro, euro, euro. As long as there's a major issue in the global economy, AAPL gets hit indirectly sooner or later. Much as I love my Apple computers, so glad to be not married to the stock.

I mentioned earlier that one sign of a top is when broke-ass penny stocks like BBI (Blockbuster Video) are among the percentage leaders. BBI has $1 billion of debt. That's right, BBI is the crackhead of all retail, barely worth more than a quarter per share and carrying that kind of debt. Yet, BBI closed at 0.29, up 4.61%. Instead of limping through the finish line, shares finished fairly strong.

Another penny, HAUP, finished at 2.16, up 1.89% and off its high of 2.27.

Earlier, nat gas plays were en fuego with 38 of 39 on my list in the green. By the close, only 12 of the 39 were positive. KOG led with a 2.92% gain (3.17) and MMR finished up 2.06% at 10.42. UNG was close to the bottom with a 2.44% loss (7.98).

NFLX closed up 4.51% at 115.31, more than 2 bucks off its intraday high. This is one of the more sporadic stocks and I just can't get into it as long as the competition gets stronger and stronger. I supposed the same could be said of Apple, but Apple isn't a one-horse wagon.

Financials did OK until late in the day. C closed up 4.03% at 3.87, but GS dropped 0.71% to 136.80 and FAS finished -2.04% to 20.64. FAZ closed up 2.17% at 16.91. Haven't traded FAZ or any finnies in ages.

STD gave up most of its gains and closed at 8.99 (+0.45%).

GLD (-0.37%), TLT (-0.11%), UUP (-0.39%) were flat. Euro finished up (FXE +0.34%) just slightly. Unusual combination, but overall these issues were flat.

BP closed near its low at 29.20 (-15.8%) after a horrendous loss today. BIDU (-4.38%), IMAX (-4.02%) and AAPL (-2.59%) also lost chunks of market cap today. F (11.05, -1.52%) and GOOG (474.34 -2.15%) also casualties despite their recent good news.

Tubby Tuesday

Dow Jones 9.939.98 +123.49 +1.26%
NASDAQ 2,170.57 -3.33 -0.15%
S&P 500 1,062.04 +11.57 +1.10%

Maybe this is bullish, Freeport-McMoran Copper (FCX) up 4.81% to 61.48 today on decent volume (22.4M). Copper? If copper starts moving, that's very interesting. FXI up 2.18% (38.83), clearly one of the indicators, proxies, whatever you want to call it. FXI started rebounding long before the rest of the market was done puking its guts out. If China is bouncing a bit, the risk of missing a move in something like FCX versus averting away from risk completely is a crazy decision for fund managers and traders.

US Steel (X) also up (+2.51%, 41.31) on decent volume (18.0M). A weaker dollar (UUP -0.35%, 25.74) and better Euro (FXE 119.11, -0.26%) helped the S&P and Dow.

Money moved out of GLD (-0.39%) and SLV lost most of its gain to finish at 17.88 (+0.39%). TLT also down (-0.49%) to 98.05.

Nasdaq was down as much as 1% or so before rallying into the close. AAPL fell to 246 before closing at 249.36 (-0.63%). It looked spooky for Apple bulls before huge buying bounced shares off a low of 246.39. Shares later dove lower to 245.65 before more bulls entered.

Overall, this is a market that's turning slightly more positive despite all the outflows of the past month. BP plunged 5.66% to 34.70, but the market has decided to move ahead. BP is on the curb, deserted even by other oil entities. Inverse oil ETNs like SCO (16.06, -3.25%) couldn't stop the sector from rallying again.

Financials also boosted the market. FAS rose to 21.10 (+4.71%) even though GS declined (137.78, -0.65%). C had a nice move up from yesterday's decline and closed at 3.73 (+2.61%).

All this was bad for FAZ (16.55, -4.72%) and VXX (31.13, -3.53%), though VXX had many nice intraday moves for nimble traders.

Today was likely about oversold levels and a lack of bad news. Tomorrow might bring opportunity for techs, which struggled today.

Mundane Monday

Dow Jones 9,816.49 -115.48 -1.16%
NASDAQ 2,173.90 -45.27 -2.04%
S&P 500 1,050.47 -14.41 -1.35%

Market kept hopping the fence between positive and negative for a long stretch today before bears took control. AAPL held up the bulls as long as it could before selling off after Steve Jobs' presentation of the iPhone G4. After hitting an early high of 259.15, AAPL closed at 250.94. It was probably sell-on-the-news movement, but there really is no catalyst in sight to aid the bulls, and the S&P closing below 1,060 is going to make technicians tremble if they're still long this market.

Nine of the 39 nat gas plays I follow finished positive, somewhat disappointing after a large majority of them were up most of the day. UNG finished with the biggest gain at 2.69% (32.27) and is trading at 32.50 after hours. GDP, REXX, ROSE, SWN, KWK, NFX and STR finished green.

Since Obama's clean energy speech on Thursday, 25 of the 39 natty gassers on my list are up. Most have gained 3 to 13%. Even WPRT, which was down 5.4% today, is still up 10.96% since Obama's speech.

FAZ was a winner today with a gain of 5.08% despite opening to the downside. VXX closed up 3.13% to 32.27.

GLD closed up 1.93% to 121.49 and SLV finished strong, up 4.46% to 17.81. It was mostly the inverse ETNs that had strong moves today. TZA finished up 7.82% to 8.13 on huge volume (59.3 million shares).

TLT held up fairly well at +0.77%.

DNDN took a big hit of -10.14% and closed at 36.70. A lot of traders had big profits and closed out their trades, not too different from traders and funds selling AAPL off to cover losing trades and/or margin calls. (Margin is evil, but that's just my point of view.)

GS down 2.51% to 138.68 on more Fed investigation news. C down 3.96% to 3.64 and NBG -5.6% to 2.19. IRE held on to its gain (+2.91%), but was a far cry from its intraday high when it was up more than 10%.

BP closed near its low at 36.76 (-2.44%) despite reports that it's capturing more of the leaking oil in the Gulf. SCO (+0.42%) and DTO (+0.43%) didn't move big despite BP's drop because other oil plays like Haliburton scored pretty nice today.

IMAX lost its early gains and finished down 1.3% (15.91). Just about every high-flying stock of a few months ago got knocked down for a second day in a row. BIDU lost 4.63% to 69.81. NFLX not too bad a loss, just 0.56% to 109.16. 


FXE down fractionally and UUP up a bit. Stronger dollar each day. Weaker Euro each day. It's probably by design on the part of the EU, which is crappy for the US market. In turn, more people go long the dollar. 

If the market does, indeed, fall through thin ice, there's so little support in terms of willing buyers. The outflows have been significant, and the psyche of traders and investors who left in May will take a long time to heal. Nothing's really changed in the past few weeks. Europe is still in the midst of financial rehab. US banks are going to take a hit because of their relationships with French and German banks, who in turn are going to eat some of the debts of EU laggards like Greece. 

As summer beckons, there are going to be more and more traders who drop everything and escape to their long-awaited vacations, possibly earlier than planned. It would make plenty of sense to get away from this market and its wretched addiction to debt and subsequent withdrawl symptoms. 

I entered small positions in UNG and VXX before the close. I'll probably exit within the next hour. Currently 75% cash. 

Last wall of defensive offense

At some point, if the market keeps bottoming (Dow Jones -229, NAS -46, S&P -23), natty gassers will cave and give back enormous gains. Half of my tracking list remains green, but UNG has plunged from 8.22 to 8.11 in the past several minutes.

The mini-bubble could burst, which would make the sector a shorter's paradise, especially with the sub-5 issues like FTK, DPTR and HERO. Careful out there.

Just about the only real safe haven today has been (and probably will continue to be) VXX, which is up 6.4% to 30.24, off its intraday high of 30.48. FAZ is up 7.1% to 15.79, and inverse oil SCO is +6.2% to 16.07. TLT, grannie favorite TMF and TZA are also up nicely for bearish traders.

Careful riding with the VXXen!

Tuesday toppling

Dow Jones 10,024.82 -112.61 -1.11%
NASDAQ 2,222.33 -34.71 -1.54%
S&P 500 1.070.71 -18.70 -1.72%

A pleasantly nice ride out of the Red Sea by bulls turned into a dump into the sewer today as the market finished with a very noticeable limp. I, as often has been the case in recent days, was a non-competitor. A non-participant. I just don't play well with the other kids for some reason, but I'm not upset. Staying in cash has kept me free from unnecessary stress.

Sure, I would've liked riding AAPL from 259 to 265.94, but it would've been rather treacherous, seeing how the rest of the market was mostly red, red and more red. AAPL rode another upgrade (340 target by another yadayada outfit) to Ka-Chingville, then sold off to 260.83 at the close. I did feel tempted, but I also knew chasing AAPL up a steep slope would be suicidal later. The market is just that way. No solid footing, all slippery downhill.

Really didn't pay close attention to other stocks today. Too choppy for my taste. If I can't trade FAZ or VXX in negative sentiment because the price ain't right, I wait until somehow, an edge falls my way. It never did, so I enjoyed the time to get some work done and actually eat breakfast for a change.

Those of you wise and nimble enough to go short before the market (or premarket) opened, I salute you. Coming into today, the three-day weekend got gloomier and gloomier with news of paranoia gripping markets globally. Most charts I looked at yesterday read SELL SELL SELL, which is a bit unusual even in this recent downturn. There's just no real conviction, a shortage of irrational exuberance, and maybe that's what the market needs, ultimately, to regain its equilibrium. Until then, I'm content to watch from the bleachers.

• BP (36.52 -6.43 -14.97%) started the day beaten down after Top Kill was ruled a failure, but shares rallied to 38.53 by mid-day. The horrendous finish, plus more selling in afterhours trading (36.30) makes BP a helluva place to be for longs. I'm not comfortable betting against oil — DUG (75.01 +5.93 +8.58%) and SCO (16.17 +0.81 +5.27%) are inverse ETNs.

• BIDU (73.56 +0.35 +0.48%) withstood the punishment that was inflicted upon most NAS stocks today. Shares were up to 75.60 at one point.

• FAZ (15.92 +0.98 +6.62%) roared as Eurozone financials stank it up. C (3.85 -0.11 -2.78%) and GS (141.86 -2.40 -1.66%) are difficult places to be for longs. They're at the mercy of any bad news across the Atlantic. IRE (4.73 -0.37 -7.25%), STD (9.83 -0.32 -3.15%) and NBG (2.35 -0.10 -4.08%) were smoked today.

• FXE (122.03 -0.34 -0.28%) rallied from a dip to 121.51, but it hardly appears there is confidence in the currency. If the Romulans, Klingons and humans can co-exist, why not the Euro Union, hmm?

• GLD (119.91 +1.03 +0.87%) is holding steady despite last month's prognostications from doubters that it would soon be overbought. If the Chinese are buying loads of gold, there might be no better move than for us Yankees to buy it, too.

• Treasurys were safe from today's carnage, too. TLT (96.85 +0.67 +0.70%) continues to reward those who don't want to mess with the market's erratic behavior.

• VXX (30.19 +1.61 +5.63%) spent much of the day around the mid 29s before launching over 30 before the close. I can't remember ever successfully trading VXX as a stand-alone. I've done far better using it as a hedge to a position in AAPL. Not going to mess with this VXXen overnight. No thank you.

Hawaii 2:07 am: Bearish roosters

Cockle-doodle-doo to you this bright and early Tuesday morn. Futures are down: Dow Jones -118, Nasdaq -18.25 and S&P 500 -15.30.

Not entirely bad considering the chaos across Planet Earth. Top Kill is a Top Flub. China back to saying, "Europe, your debt crap sucks mightily." Bond issues in Europe. Things could be worse.

Ten minutes into premarket trading:

• AAPL 258.65, up from Friday's 256.88 close. High: 259.18. Low: 255.39. Quite the comeback in just a few minutes. Apple was upgraded by UBS with a target of 320. Just sold its 2 millionth iPad. That's right. Holeee Shit.

• BIDU 71.55, down from Friday's 73.21. High: 72.51. Low: 71.50.

• C 3.90, down from Friday's 3.96. High: 3.96. Low: 3.85.

• F 11.39, down from Friday's 11.73. High: 11.53. Low: 11.33.

• FAS 23.10, down from Friday's 24.14. High: 23.75. Low: 22.94.

• FAZ 15.60, up from Friday's 14.93. High: 15.70. Low: 15.15.

• FXI 38.80, down from Friday's 39.38. Barely any volume so far.

• GLD 119.88, up from Friday's 118.88.

• GOOG 478.80, down from Friday's 485.63. High: 481.91. Low: 478.60.

• GS 143.10, down from Friday's 144.26.

• IRE 4.72, down huge from Friday's 5.10. NBG also down to 2.38 from 2.45. STD is at 9.81, down from 10.15.

• USO 33.21, down from 34.03.

• DUG at 72.35, up from 69.08 on minimal volume.

• VXX 29.85, up from 28.58. High: 30.10. Low: 29.10. Volatility seemed to be a winning play before premarket, but once the AAPL upgrade came out, things reversed some.

TLT is worth watching early on, too. If volatility reigns this morning, Treasurys will keep rising.