Silver and gold stars

11:06 am (Hawaii) Today's silver stars?

GPL 3.82 +0.22 (+6.1%) volume slightly up

SLW 36.75 +1.77 (+5.1%) volume slightly up

EXK 9.81 +0.44 (+4.7%) volume slightly down

PAAS 46.44 +1.59 (+3.6%) volume slightly down

SIL 25.01 +0.67 (+2.8%) volume up big

AG 20.28 +0.42 (+2.1%) volume slightly up

SVM 10.37 +0.13 (+1.3%) volume slightly up

AGQ 177.38 +2.18 (+1.2%) volume even

All are afterhours prices. Not a lot of depth in silver gainers, but notable.

Gold stars:

NUGT 32.65 +1.92 (+6.3%) volume slightly down

GG 52.45 +2.04 (+4.1%) volume up big

NGD 10.75 +0.40 (+3.9%) volume slightly up

EGO 16.37 +0.55 (+3.6%) volume slightly up

XG 14.50 +0.46 (+3.3%) volume slightly up

GDX 57.36 +1.74 (+3.1%) volume up

ABX 47.14 +1.26 (+2.8%) volume up

GDXJ 36.30 +0.80 (+2.3%) volume up big

DGP 50.76 +0.74 (+1.5%) volume up big

UGL 53.80 (+1.4%) volume slightly up

49ers hacking the Bears

7:08 am (Hawaii) If this were an NFL game, the 49ers (gold miners) would be stomping the Bears. NUGT is up 5.2% (29.70) on impressive volume. After trading 78K shares yesterday, NUGT has already traded 200K today, and it's only the halfway point. GDXJ is also up (2.8%) on solid volume, and same with GOLD and GDX.

Silver is also spiking this morning. AGQ is up 5.1% (164.95), though volume is sluggish throughout the silver sector. The sellers are sold out, or were, as of Monday-Tuesday, apparently. GPL (+4.6%), AG (+3.7%), PAAS (+3.4%) look nice on the surface, but again, volume is miniscule.

CU and COPX are gaining (3.5%) again, but volume is nothing special.

Rare earths are also up, but volume there is the same: middling. MCP is up 2.7%, possibly because of talk of a merger.

75% of my Metals list is green. Crude oil is rallying, the dollar is down and things appear to be "normal" for an upside day in metals. Even XG (+0.8%) and DGP (+1%) are up. How long the metals rally is a matter of how much the market believes QE3 is actually underway with the Fed buying Treasurys again. Can anybody eat tainted food without eventually keeling over?

Not quite minus squared

9:37 am (Hawaii) Market is down (Dow -99.83/-0.8%, Nas -31.77/-1.2%, S&P -13.09/-1.0%), but it's not convincing of an onrushing disaster, either. Dollar is up 6/10th of a percentage point, crude oil down again (SCO up 1%). The Metals list is 27% green, 73% red with a majority on the plus side being bear plays. But the key is low volume up and down. Maybe it's a respite of sorts and Monday begins a bloodbath. Or maybe this market will remain choppy, indignant and petulant.

ZSL is up 5.3% to 19.46. DUST, QID, gold bears GLL and DZZ are among the leaders on the list. REE, MCP and AVL have kept rare earths near the top.

Meanwhile, the finnies faded. Three were in the green in the opening minutes today, but now all are in the red. NBG, which got up to 1.43 yesterday on the positive news of austerity psuedo-measures, is down 7% to 1.32. Pulling back is no surprise, but I thought there might be continued momentum after profit-taking. It's tough to make it when you're a bankster.

Silver plays are getting minced again, not a shock. AGQ down 5.4% to 161.54, EXK (-5.2%), SLW (-4.3%), PAAS (-3%), GPL (-4.5%), SVM (-5.1%) are among the bruised silver miners. XG (-2%), NUGT (-5.3%), GG (-3.7%), GDXJ (-3.1%), DGP (-3%) are among the gold plays getting stomped. DGP's descent is unusual; it's normally not a big mover up or down. It's my lone play, a small position, and Spot Gold has room to fall, maybe to 1450. Not fun, but the puppet masters will do what they deem necessary to justify implementation of the next bailout/quantitative easing/big lie.

My Regular watch list is 26% green, 74% red. AAPL is down 1.6% to 325.95. TVIX (+7.5%) and VXX (+3.7%) are up big, as is QID (+3.5%). No buyers, and it seems some hedge funds have emptied out. It's nice to rest easy on summer vacation.

It gets interesting on the Regular list. CMG (+1.1%), RLOC (+0.8%), CSTR (+0.3%) are up. Then it's red, red, red, red ...

Greecian formula?

10:17 am (Hawaii) Major momentum swings today. Jobs report bad. Greece austerity good. Looking over several charts from AAPL to NBG to AG, could it be remotely possible that this bullish vibe — increased volume, heavy momentum from lows to highs by the close — is the real deal? I would find that preposterous to conceive. This is late June, QE2 is almost done and the Fed is in no rush to usher in QE3. In fact, the Fed seems content to see the market tank, even crash, to justify any further fiat currency destruction, i.e. printing trillions more US Dollars.

Yet there are massive numbers in some of these equities/etfs. Are they spurred by high-frequency trading? Probably, but some of those are direct from the hedge funds, and moves on big volume don't lie in the near term. Usually.

I got out of FAZ despite my long-term pessimism about the debt crisis. I am not going to wait around and get cut to pieces by market momentum to the downside. But I am willing to re-enter FAZ once the financials' true colors show up vivid and bright again. Like maybe tomorrow morning. If Spain and Portugal opt for more austere routes, like Greece, that does NOT help US banksters one bit. So it can be possible for NBG to rocket higher on austerity measures while financials stateside swallow another plate of poison.

I looked hard at NBG before the close and had an order at 1.41, but never got it filled. Bad timing. Or good, depending on how the market follows through tomorrow. It could easily pull back into the 1.30s after today's robust gain. A tiny position would be interesting, but a fast move up isn't in the cards. I can see NBG at 2.00 in a few months, but the constant downturns of other banks will keep it leashed. A move to 2.50 or higher could happen within a year. A double is never a bad thing.





Apple held high ground even when the market was still down big. AAPL closed is at 330.20 after hours (+2.3%). Today's candlestick is not exactly bullish, but it is not bearish either.

Baidu has been bullish, as well, with good news earlier in the week. It wasn't long ago that BIDU split 3-for-1 and was sitting at 70. If there's a "safe" play in China, this would be one. Big Brother protects its little brothers.

LULU and other stocks look bullish, but in this bizarro market, LULU could easily lose its recent gains. That small float cuts both ways.

Silver was a roller coaster ride today. Silver Wheaton, like AAPL, showed strength when it was a sea of red. Net-net, SLW had slightly more volume and is up 1% to 33.13 after hours.

First Majestic (AG) also had a positive day (+0.8%) despite the pummeling on silver. Like Silver Wheaton, First Majestic's fundamental numbers are impressive, particularly in profit margin. I think that gets tampered with as energy prices fluctuate, but AG is still a solid miner.

I still like EXK (8.49 after hours), which was down nearly 1% but is still among the stronger plays this week among silver miners. 7.50 is support, and some shrewd traders got in at about 7.60 recently for this elevator ride.










AGQ, GPL, PAAS, SLV for your viewing.

 

 

ZSL was a solid play on the short side, but was well off its intraday high (19.11). ZSL is at 18.49 (+6.4%) after hours.

If the CME mafia continue to pull strings on silver, a little ZSL would make good protection.

DGP (double gold bull) looked horrible on the chart, big gap down on increased volume. If the puppet masters knock gold down, as I expect, to further their argument in favor of QE3, so be it. They will not and cannot hold gold down for long, though. Eventually, the debt crisis will overwhelm all factors, and the US will have to take severe action one way or another. Every way benefits real money: gold and silver. So I will hold my little position in DGP and continue to accumulate hard assets.

Rangold (GOLD) was a rarity today, a gold play that finished green (80.03, +0.5% after hours). I don't trade it, know little about it.

There were a few gold plays that showed some strength, like NGD.

GLD was GLD.

I still like Extorre Gold Mines (XG), even with its huge run in the past several months. They are great marketers and have been successful as of late with their finds in Argentina.










DZZ is one way to play a downturn in gold. GLL is another way (+3.7% today). On the whole, however, I don't plan to short gold. If I bet against anything, it would be the financials or silver, maybe the Nas (QID). I've never played QID, and unless there's a complete breakdown, I won't touch it. But the Nas does fall apart in a big way from time to time, so QID is worth keeping an eye on.

 

I'm mostly cash, same as the last several months. Small, but growing pile of physical metals.

Hitting for power

6:59 am (Hawaii) Just got up to another cool morning in the islands, a nice 73 degrees, partly cloudy, low humidity. The market is where it's hot. Dow up 91.96 (+0.78%), Nas up 47.31 (+1.8%), S&P +14.60 (+1.1%).

Silver is on fire and dominating the top of my Metals list, which is 79% green, 19% red. Unlike other up days, volume is huge so far, which has me intrigued.

AG 17.85, +7.1%
SVM 9.16, +6.9%
EXK 8.37, +6.5%
PAAS 30.36, +6.3%
NUGT 28.73, +5.5%
AVL 6.56, +5%
XG 11.99, +4.9%
SLW 32.57, +4.5%
EGO 13.99, +4%
SIL 23.46, +4%
GOLD 77.69, +3.5%
GDXJ 33.67, +3.16%

All of these upside plays are close to yesterday's volume or, like EXK and XG, have already surpassed it. How is this possible? US Dollar down, Euro up, Greece going through the formalities after the closing bell. Bernanke to speak tomorrow. Even AAPL is up 2.8% to 324.27.

Is it just about Greece and the Euro? I'd say it was a weak dead-cat bounce, but on this kind of volume? The finnies are up big. NBG (+7.4%), BBVA (+2.6%), STD (+2.4%), C (+1.8%), BAC (+1.1%), GS (+1%), GS (+1%), JPM (+0.6%) all up. FAZ down 2.9%.

Whatever the reason, EXK once again bounced off the 7.50-7.60 area. This is no place to chase here.

As for rare earths, AVL is hot on fair volume, MCP is up 1.3% to 53.11 on tiny volume, and REE is up 2% to 10.36, also on very small volume. They had their big run yesterday, but today isn't all bad at all. Looking forward, I'm leaning more toward trading in rare earths and/or holding a small long-term position. Otherwise, I'm still 90% cash, haven't made a trade in nearly two weeks. The game plan was to wait until tomorrow for a signal in either direction and I'm content waiting this out.

My Regular watch list is 87% green, 13% red. The big boys like AAPL, DIS, GOOG, NFLX are up, but on low volume. The smaller players like LULU are up on huge volume (+5%).

Same as it ever was?

6:55 am (Hawaii) Finally awake and conscious after the alarm went off five hours ago. Long, busy weekend can do that to me. Not that I was anticipating a big move for the market or precious metals or AAPL or anything. I don't see any news regarding the national debt ceiling and Congress. I don't see any news about changes in the Middle East. In fact, unless something new surfaces, my attention is on the start of gold futures contracts trading at the Hang Seng Hong Kong in two days. It probably won't send tremors through the global market, but gradually, it could usurp much of the iron first held by London and New York on metals trading. Otherwise, Hang Seng Hong Kong wouldn't have gold futures trade EIGHTEEN 15 HOURS a day.

ZSL leads my metals list with a 5.9% gain, already up from 20.64 when I logged on to 20.83 now. Major volume in the past couple of minutes. Make that 20.90, a HOD. That means Spot Silver is getting crushed. If we see 30 there, I'll be ready to pounce on more physical. I thought we might see 30 last week, and there's a real chance it could dip to 27. But a 29-34 range is reasonable, all things considered. Crude Oil is down, now at 97.76. Spot Gold is at 1491, off its HOD of 1504. Dollar is down, too, which doesn't exactly make sense with Gold down.

So SCO is up, as are TWM, GRS, PSAU, NUGT ... that's right, gold miners are up again. If miners truly are leading indicators, that would explain silver plays dragging along and gold plays chugging rather than dipping as badly. Not all silver plays are down; PAAS is up 0.7%. But the worst on my list are AGQ (163.58) and EXK (8.50).

I remain 100% cash.

Update 7:20 am (Hawaii) Apmex is selling "just listed" fractional silver coins, so great, right? But at least one blog is touting these fractionals as cheap and a way to avoid paying way-high premiums. I looked and found that the prices of these fractionals are just as bad as the premiums on ASEs.

1/10 oz APMEX Mercury Dime Silver Round .999 Fine, $6.73 (check/wire), $6.93 (credit card)
With Spot Silver at 34.10, how is this Apmex price any good? At Spot, this Apmex dime silver round would be 3.41. Does it make any damned sense to pay DOUBLE the spot price?

The 1/4 oz is no better. None are.

1/4 oz APMEX Standing Liberty Quarter Silver Round .999 Fine
They're charging $13.06 (check/wire) for something that is 8.53 at spot. Fuck that.

1/2 oz Sunshine Minting Silver Round .999 Fine
APMEX is charging 20.84 (check/wire) for a coin that is actually 17.05 at spot. Another ripoff.

I don't mind anything that anybody sells. It's a free market in that sense. But any blog that touts this stuff as great to have, "not having to pay the $8 premiums on Silver Eagles," much more liquid when the world ends, blahblahblah ... why the hell would anyone tout something as being cheaper than the pre-existing premium ... when Apmex is clearly selling these fractionals exactly AT premium, percentage-wise?

They're pretty coins. They're just not cheaper than ASEs by any stretch. Be careful of misleading blogs. Especially if you're looking for a good deal like me.

Update 7:41 am (Hawaii) Even a regular peon like me can understand this much: The Chinese ain't joking around about the future. When they make moves like this, they follow through, and it explains the bounce in some gold plays today. Shanghai cutting margin limits on silver ... I've posted this before, but it's worth repeating. Are changes in margin requirements limited to one time only? Not usually. I'm as keen on Wednesday (May 18) and the birth of Hang Seng gold futures as much as ever.

Update 10:18 am (Hawaii) Mostly ignored price "action" today. AAPL dropping below 340 is interesting. Spot Silver at 33.63 means physical is lower, but is physical truly and fully discounted here? I bought a Scottsdale stacker (10 oz) on Friday at $387. It's now going for $373. Can't say I'm shocked, figuring that Spot could drop to 30 soon. The Academy hand-poured 10-oz bar is going for $379. These are the lowest prices I've seen since I've been visiting Scottsdale's site in two or three weeks.

Spot at 30, a possibility, would mean a stacker at $340 maybe. And a hand-poured at $350 maybe. No rush here. My dry powder is ready, but limited. Smart shopping is key.

The 10-oz Engelhard bar is going for $396 (credit card), another recent low. ASE (delayed delivery to June 17) is going for 41.32 (credit card). Premium remains high, in the $8 range, for ASEs.

I'm glad I got a teeny bit of physical gold on Friday. Gold is the one place that was geared for a bit of stability, and I'm leaning more that direction with Asia hungry for more physical and the aforementioned gold futures opening up in less than 48 hours on the Hang Seng.

I never cared much for gold or PMs in general until this year, but demand is demand and supply is limited. Same with Crude Oil, though it was down 2.6% today. Can Obama beat the Crudesters down lower? Hard to say ... if Israel does attack Iraq at some point, I don't think the US would get heavily involved. An Israeli win would be bullish for the US economy via lower crude price (theoretically), but any US involvement would rewrite the script completely and shit could hit the fan.

Global Village, indeed.

Update 10:30 am (Hawaii) I played ZSL late in the session, in at 21.39, out at 21.46. Unwilling to let it slide afterhours. It dipped to 21.30, but is now at 21.60. Afterhours is always a tricky alley to navigate, neanderthals looking to stab you in the eye with infected needles and shit. Get through that, you can make a mint. Spot Silver now at 33.50. 33 could be next, then 32 ... 31 ... 30 ... and boing-o!

Some hideous declines in silver plays or, depending on your point of view, awesomely cool buying opportunities. (After you, of course, after you.) AGQ at 158.06, near the LOD. EXK 8.31, -7.25%. (I  don't remember the last time Endeavour was this cheap.) SLV at 32.75 (-4.8%). UCO at 45.62 (-4.6%). AG 17.20 (-4.4%). PSLV 15.58 (-2.9%). XG 9.34, -2.4%. SIL 23.22 (-1.5%). SLW 33.71 (-1.1%).

Top gainers on my Metals List: ZSL, SCO, TWM, GRS, TRE, NGD, GG, EGO, NUGT ... mainly gold plays. Congrats to you gold bugs. I'm coming around, as I was bound to in time. I'm too skeptical of all things not to.

Update 2:52 pm (Hawaii) Spot Silver bounced off 33.50 and is at 33.92 with Sydney and Hong Kong open now. I've been reading and watch videos about the market, about physical prices and it's interesting to compare prices and opinions. Apmex is clearly not the only dealer to charge a massive premium on fractional silver bullion. Doesn't make me want to go and buy a bunch of their coins, though. Still doesn't make enough sense to me, spending more than $6 on a 1/10th oz silver fractional that is actually worth 3.39 at Spot. With Apmex's emphasis on these overpriced fractionals, maybe this is a sign that the physical market has peaked, i.e. JUMPED THE SHARK. I hope not. 

Worst-case scenario: Spot drifts lower until it hits 30, then straight to 27, then back to 19, where this massive momo run began. It would be ugly, but physical at 19 would be a treat. 

About fractional coins again: if that many people are convinced that dollars and common US mint coins are going to be useless in the event of a global currency collapse, why not use divisible coins like the one at QSB? It can be chiseled into quarter-coins, if desired. The whole coin itself goes for just $37+ on the site, or $3.22 over Spot. None of this wicked 40-50% premium that Apmex charges. 

Mike Maloney in 2010 on the unlikelihood of government confiscation

Hustle and wait

7:23 am (Hawaii) An old ex-military friend once told me, "The military is all about hurry up, get there quick and wait. Wait and wait. All the time." He has a point there. What's the point of efficiency unless you're so good at it, you end up waiting a majority of the time. But to be there, armed and prepared, conditioned for any circumstance, that's the essence of success. The trophies and glory are byproducts.

I've been up since 4:20 am or so, which would be 10:20 am Eastern. I shined up an old coin I found among my pile of dirty pennies, nickels, dimes and quarters. I took in the morning light, which was obscured by light gray clouds over our green mountain. It's good here.

The market? It's stuttering. It's meandering. It has no real direction, just a head fake here and a head fake there. AGQ looks good for a few minutes, then ZSL takes the ball and runs, but before it can turn the corner, it tanks.

I'm still all cash here. Greece and other Euro zone spots are getting media excited. But all in all, things are somewhat calm with crude oil at 98 or so. Spot Gold sank from 1515 overnight to 1492 this morning as the Dollar gained. Spot Silver is at 34.73 after dipping to 32.20 early yesterday. It went to 36+ overnight. We're just five days away from the debut of Hang Seng's Hong Kong's gold futures, an 18-hour/day market that may challenge Comex.

Yesterday, in a post that was stolen and sent into the Blogger.com Bermuda Triangle, I noted that AGQ and ZSL were both in the red at the same time for a long stretch. Made no sense until I revisited that this morning. The reason both ultra ETNs were down big? Outflow. Traders were taking their money out of the market. They were frustrated and decided to get the eff out, as I have done for months. That explains today's lethargic activity. That explains a lot. Liquidity is drastically different. It's not bone dry, but traders are mentally worn out and fatigued. They cashed out. Can't blame them.

Today, AGQ is up 3.9% to 172.10 even though 64% of my metals list is red. Silver in general is red: AG, EXK, PAAS. But some are positive: SLW, PSLV, SLV. ZSL is off by 8.1%.

I still want much more physical silver, but the thesis here is to make as much fiat as possible (without major risk), then collect physical when spot prices decline. Maybe that's later this month, or maybe in early June if the Fed doesn't indicate a bias toward or against QE3. But it's coming, and if the Fed is successful in driving down commodities (especially crude oil), the equation to justify more easing becomes acceptable (?) to the general public and its shills in D.C. They're going to do all they can to stave off the austerity movement.

So what does that have to do with physical? A lot, no doubt about it. So I'll play it as we see it, and if they drive down the price of Spot, I'll come along for the ride. But that means resisting any tempting price today. Example: Scottsdale 10-oz stacker got down to $385 last night. I almost pulled the trigger. It went back to $395 later. But this morning, it's back down to to $385. If Spot gets back to 33, then 30, I'm probably shopping. Shiny metal. So pretty.

Bright green and silver lights

12:42 pm (Hawaii) This was a week of busy, busy work, so I didn't pay much attention to the market. Not like I normally do. So it's stunning to see silver march higher, unencumbered by the supposed interest of JP Morgan in seeing silver wobble and fall. Today's top gainer on my watch list is PAAS (42.70, +8.5%). EXK (12.48, +4.9%) SLV (39.93, +3.1%) and SLW (46.91, +3.1%) are insanely hot. Do I regret selling EXK, SLV and SLW three weeks ago?

Yes. Especially EXK, which I had at 8.75 and sold at 8.55.

UCO is a crude oil play I wish I'd entered. Seems like just a week ago when it was at 54. Just two months ago it was at 42. Today, UCO is at 64.06 (+5.3%) while a gallon of gasoline in Honolulu is as high as $4.37 (regular unleaded). Should I have bought a hundred shares just to hedge against the inevitable rise?

Yes.

Oh well. Coal in China cooled off. YZC (37.17, -5%) fell through the ice. HAIN, another recent runner, is down 4.5% (30.62). WNR, among the hottest oil refiner plays, is down 4.1% (17.65).

All in all, though, playing certain winners in a variety of sectors has worked in the past few weeks. Silver and crude oil worked despite or because of QE2. Is it too late to play UCO or SLW? After today's massive moves up, I'd say so, at least for the short term. Yet I might open that little position in UCO with the knowledge that if crude oil prices finally head down, lower gas prices means I'll break even in a sense. If gas prices continue to climb, UCO would make me some pocket change. Being 100% cash is reassuring, but I'm losing to inflation and UCO wouldn't require constant micromanaging.

All in all, 53% of my watch list is green while the market was fractionally down.

AAPL? down 1% to 334.82. No catalyst in the near term. Support at 326. A small position at that level could work, but if we get there too soon, we'd be too far away from earnings, and AAPL could test the next level near 300. I've held AAPL from 214 down to 195 before (and sold at 257), but I'd rather stay out and wait for the 300 scenario, unlikely as that may be.

Update 12:58 pm (Hawaii) Used to be sports highlights on ESPN made me go, "OH MY GOSH!"

Now it's the market, or rather, the rising price of crude. $112? OH MY GOSH! I'm eyeing UCO if it dips below 64. Sure it could gap up on Monday, but more likely, it'll give back half of its recent spike. The short-term ceiling had been 58 or so, so I'm expecting a pullback to 61 before the climb resumes.

Also, the recent selloff in WNR is more trader behavior than reflective of the crack spread, eloquently explained by Le Fly. Maybe the action in refiners is an omen of a pullback in the crude trade. Or maybe WNR is coiling for another big spring higher. My guess is the latter. A small position in WNR would not be unreasonable here.

Le Fly makes a good point about Cramer contradicting himself — refiners will blow out earnings estimates, but sell them anyway — but how about this ... maybe Cramer knows something we don't know. Maybe he knows the hedge funds that trade refiners want to take this play down to the near-term low (WNR 15,40, then 14.00), then roast all shorts on the way back up and above 19.50, the recent high. Really. Those mofos are greedy as hell and you know it.

CNBC: US oil settles near $113 (Apr 8 2011)

Ladies and gents, a little turbulence

3:25 am (Hawaii). For your Thursday morning pleasure, strap on those seat belts and hold on for the ride. Premarket is 25 minutes in and only 22% of my watch list is in the green. 57% is red, and there's 21% that haven't traded yet.

GMCR is still riding its momo from yesterday, as is HGSI (FDA approved their new drug). SBUX is up, as is AZK. But everything else that's up is money running to safety: EDZ (+3.9%), TVIX (+3.1%), VXX (+2.7%), TZA (+2.4%), QID (+1.6%).

Silver plays are scraping the bottom of the barrel. SLW (-3.8%), SLV (-2.4%), PAAS (-2.8%). Gold plays like NGD (-1.3%) are also struggling along.

If the S&P 500 peels back half of its two-year gain (from 666 to 1333), that would take it back to 1,000. That's a 25% crash if the house of cards falls again. Are you prepared for that possibility? I am. I'm still all cash, paranoid but willing to dip in for a quick trade here and there.

If this is simply a 5% or 10% pullback, so be it. It was going to happen sooner or later. When NFLX and LULU finally burst their bubbles, what else did the market need to tell us? LULU ran wild about three or four years ago, marking the inferno of that run. NFLX at 247 was preposterous, and now at 192, it seems far more reasonable. As the old saying goes, if you're going to get out, get out fast or don't get out at all.

If you are certain QE3 is coming, it would make no sense to sell anything that was bought at the recent top. Unless you're also certain that equities are going to fall much, much more (and give you a cheaper re-entry price) between now and the end of June.

EDZ trading at its high of premarket (21.17, +4.3%). Tempting, but I'll wait.

AAPL? Inching back toward its premarket low (below 350).

Update, 3:40 am (Hawaii). El Stinky. Futures are all over the place. Crude oil has been driven down below 103 after being near 105 early in the morning. Gold has started to rally after being beaten down, but silver has been punished mercilessly, hovering just above 35. Copper, meanwhile, has rallied after taking a pummeling this week.

The three worst performers on my watch list are now all silver plays: EXK (-4.8%), SLW (-3.5%) and PAAS (-2.9%). UCO is right there, too, down 2.5%.

21% green, 68% red on my watch list. That's astounding, considering the number of contrary plays involved. It's been awhile since an early Friday selloff turned around by the closing bell. As always, watching from the rafters with superpowered technology for my sight. Keeping my cash buried in its treasure box nearby.

Update, 4:13 am (Hawaii). This is downright ugly. 19% of my watch list green. 70% now red. Egad.

TZA keeps climbing higher, now up 3.9%. Just an hour ago, it was up "only" 2.4%. Interesting fact: Two years ago, in March of 2009, TZA traded at a "translated" 1,494, or more than 37x its current price of 40.13. I can't imagine any catastrophe that would send TZA to that level again, but it's amusing to think about. Unless you're short TZA. Then today sucks.

Update, 11:49 am (Hawaii). Dow Jones -228.48 (-1.87%). Nasdaq -50.70 (-1.84%), S&P 500 -24.91 (-1.89%). Where was Big Brother? Maybe it would've been worse without him putting a floor under the market. But suggestions that tomorrow, the Day of Rage in several Middle East nations, will have no POMO support for the US market is intriguing. If this is true, why is UCO down 1.5% today? True, UCO is off its LOD of 52.91 after Saudi Arabia opened fire (non-lethal weapons) on protestors today. But at 54.02, is Day of Rage already baked into this level for crude oil? Is there really plenty of supply domestically? Or is something else going to keep a lid on the price?

Crude oil futures went from 101.50 or so to 104+ in a span of 15 minutes when the shooting began. Now trading at 102.45. I've always believed that the Fed can and will put a ceiling or a floor on any market for the best the interests of America. No different here.

Afterhours, 30% of my watch list is green, a nice improvement from earlier levels (17%). GMCR is up 41.4% on the news of its deal with Starbucks. SBUX up 8.8%. HGSI is up 12.7% and NFLX made a run (+3.6%) after the recent beatdown. OPEN (+1.6%), CLNE (+1%), BIDU and CMG all showed signs of life.

EDZ (22.10, +8.9%) and TZA (41.89, +8.4%) were bulldozers. Triple-short ultra ETFs aren't exactly my preference, but both finish much higher than they opened (gap ups). TZA (small-cap bear) gained another 6% from where I first saw it in premarket. Can EDZ (emerging-cap bear) change direction while Day of Rage begins in hours? Hard to chase something almost up 10%; Few stocks can maintain momentum past that level of gain no matter how hot.

TVIX (49.63, +11.2%) and VXX (34.02, +5.5%) ran well today. QID (53.86, +3.1%) was another gainer.

AAPL is at 347.45 (-1.4%) afterhours after a low of 344.90. Silver plays were pillaged, to no surprise. SLW (40.85, -5.9%), EXK (8.82, -5.7%), PAAS (35.39, -4.5%), SLV (34.42, -2.4%) all sucked, but after huge gains in a short time, that's the nature of the beast. Can the regular retail trader/investor really beat JP Morgan and the Fed? The smart, willing puppets traded in and out on the momentum before this week's dip. Stubborn puppets are being toyed with. SLW dipped all the way to 40.22; a drop below 40 would be a major psyche-out move and spook out remaining weak hands.

I want to believe in a resumption of a silver explosion, especially when so much of the demand is driven by China. But if China inflation continues, will it continue hoarding silver or simply take a pause? How dangerous would it be for silver longs if China silver imports stalled or pulled back? Silver has doubled in the past year, which had even silver bulls cautioning newbies about consolidation. It's a fascinating tale to watch unfold. But I remain 100% cash here.

No matter how realistic the perspective, even if you've made good trades within the vortex of negativity via stuff like TZA or EDZ or TVIX, even hungry bears will claw and devour each other when there is no other prey. The market needs to bounce at least a little at some point before things get too lopsided to one end of the ship. Are NFLX and BIDU telling us the worst is over for this week? There isn't a positive catalyst in sight unless NATO gets involved ... it seems.

AAPL 6 month, daily

Update, 12:52 pm (Hawaii). I like it when professionals talk in practical terms. Pete Najarian (Fast Money) noted that AAPL touched its 50-day moving average today, and that's where he stepped in. Is iPad 2 mania*, which will be unveiled at 5 p.m. Eastern tomorrow, going to kick start the next trading range for AAPL? Can AAPL defeat Day of Raaaaaaage??

Thursday Evening News
Jesse's Cafe Americain: Blythe strikes back (Mar 10 2011) "The greatest curse is an early and easy success, and the euphoria of thinking we are greater than we really are. ... Take your positions and hold them, without leverage, and with realistic expectations."
CBS/WFRV-TV: Wisconsin majority leader receives death threats (Mar 10 2011)

Friday forkway

3:15 am (Hawaii). Up. Down. Left. Right. Spend. Hoard.

America is at an economic crossroads today. Depending on who you believe, we are on the brink of prosperity (again). So says Alan Greenspan, per CNBC this morning. "Momentum" is with the improving U.S. economy, he says. Then you have precious metal bugs, some who are heavily invested in gold, silver, ammunition and years worth of canned food, who believe the U.S. dollar is doomed.

All I care about is making a smart trade. One at a time. I've missed the ride up with AAPL despite my bullishness about the stock and company. With 20 minutes until the non-farm payrolls report, AAPL is trading a buck higher in premarket at 360+. It was a couple of weeks ago, when Steve Jobs was spotted at the doctor's office, when I got out at this price. I knew the public would overreact. "He's at the doctor? OMG!" Well, shares dipped much lower from there as hedge funds took profits. Now things are so much better, a catalyst is in play and a new trading range is being formed.

Premarket, 60% of my watch list is green, 22% red, 18% flat.

NGD +6.4%, UCO +2%, EXK +1.7%, PAAS 1.4%, USO +1.1%, FCX +1%, SLW +0.9%, SLV +0.8%

TVIX -7.5%, CLNE -1%, GMCR -0.9%, CSTR -0.8%, OPEN -0.7%, LVS -0.6%, VZ -0.4%, QID -0.3%

Update, 3:41 am (Hawaii). Non-farms payroll report was ho-hum. In line, according to CNBC.

AAPL has retraced more than half of its premarket gain, now 360.33. I don't feel confident about entering here, however. Wait-and-see mode.

Update, 3:50 am (Hawaii). Watch list still mostly green: 51% positive, 33% neg, 16% neutral. Crude oil futures are above 103. Is there a surer bet out there? Maybe AAPL. The assurance from Libya's rebel leader that they will fight to the death probably put the spike in today's price.

NGD +2.4%, UCO +2.3%, USO +1.5%, PAAS +1.4%, EXK +1.2%, SLW +0.9%, SLV +0.8%, LULU +0.7%, FCX +0.6%, APC +0.5%

GS -1.3%, C -1.1%, GMCR -0.9%, CSTR -0.8%, OPEN -0.7%, TVIX -0.6%

Update, 3:59 am (Hawaii). Divergence in gold and silver. While gold, Dow Jones, S&P and Nasdaq futures have eroded in the past hour, silver headed higher. Weirdness.

Update, 4:02 am (Hawaii). Watch list bullishness declining still. 47% green, 35% red, 18% flat. 

Update, 4:22 am (Hawaii). Crude oil is a tempting play (again), but it's important to remember that many of the oil crises of years past were stopped in their tracks by the presence of the US armed forces. Total Investor noted this yesterday in a thorough examination of crude prices before and after American intervention. UCO dipped to about 54.50, close to the 50% retracement of today's premarket gain, but has bounced and is now back up to 54.80. Considerable as a daytrade. but probably too late now.


Update, 5:16 am (Hawaii). Not sure who the gold analyst/bull was, but he showed up on CNBC 30 or 45 minutes ago and noted that Mark Haynes had been negative on gold when he was on the show several months ago. Haynes was pissed, but his body language said it all: it was the truth.

Silver futures chart online is behind most other charts by 15 minutes. This divergence began as silver hit $35. Not sure why, but anything is possible. Gold was fresh and live, but not silver. SLW cracked 45 for the first time, making me regret selling at 43.10 on Wednesday. EXK, PAAS, SLV also doing extremely well.

NGD, UCO, and now TVIX atop my list. So is NFLX, which had been beaten down recently. Not touching that, but the metal plays and UCO continue to appeal to me.

50% retracement levels (on today's gains): SLW 44.37, UCO 54.44. SLW actually dipped to retrace level at 44.36, but I froze up. On cue, SLW ran up immediately back toward 45. My loss.

Hi Ho Silver!

Update, 6:02 am (Hawaii). Most mornings, I'd be in bed by now, peacefully asleep. This time, even without Red Bull, I'm wide awake. The precious metals, silver in particular, are screaming out loud. It's an ecstatic sound. I'm not in, no skin in, all cash. But it's an amazing move up for silver. It makes me remember that though the masses (like me) are interested now, the huge move in the past year probably means silver is nearing a top at some point. Could be next week. Maybe next month or next year. But irrational exuberance is nearing.

EXK exploded above 9 to an HOD of 9.22, now at 9.10. PAAS +3.1%. SLV +2.8%. SLW +2.2%, well off its HOD of 45.13, now 44.68. I want a position at 44.37 (50% retracement of today's gain).

In all, my watch list is 56% green, 41% red. Markets are generally slightly red. AAPL is back in the green, just barely, at 359.59. Needed a breather after that nice move the past couple of days.

UCO still appealing, though I wouldn't want to hold over the weekend if naval ships from around the world converge on Libya. But who knows? Maybe Quadaffi blows up every oil field out of spite.

Update 3:35 pm (Hawaii). Selloff. Upside for precious metals, crude oil. And it would've been more extreme if not for the strange moves. Artificial intelligence, indeed.

Saved by the bell?

Does it matter?

AAPL may never see 350 again

Movin' on up no matter the manipulation stateside

Up up up

Absolutely untainted by equity manipulation

Pump on Fast Money didn't hurt either

All indications point toward continued stampede-like behavior in crude and PMs. How did JP Morgan not pull the rug out on PMs by yesterday or today? Are they shackled now? Is silver going to hit $40 next week? 

I have a very hard time believing that the dollar will implode, that the puppet masters won't pull the rug out from the masses (moving into PMs) soon. Real soon. I hope it doesn't happen that way. Where else is the small-fry citizen to trade or invest when all else is failing? Shorting equities is dangerous with QE2 at full bore. Metals make sense, but strange things happen overnight, or over a weekend. 

In other words, I trust no one. To those of have the gumption to go long silver (rather than sell early as I did), a toast to you. And a merry weekend, also. I caught a bit of a ride on SLV last week, but missed the ride to 34.87 (after hours today). UCO was appealing, but I stayed out and it closed AH at 56.50 today (5.3%). Big cajones means you were still long EXK (+12.2%), which closed AH at 9.36 today. 

EXK 9.36 (+12.2%), UCO 56.50 (+5.3%), NGD 10.79 (+5.2%), SLV 34.93 (+4.5%), NFLX 211.80 (+4.1%), TVIX 42.74 (+4.1%), SLW 45.15 (+3.3%), PAAS 39.70 (+3.2%), CRR 122.90 (+3.2%)

FAS 30.69 (-3.7%), CLNE 13.51 (-2.9%), C 4.55 (-2.8%), VCLK 14.80 (-2.4%), GS 160.80 (-2.2%), EGPT 17.57 (-2.1%), F 14.45 (-2.1%), X 55.70 (-1.9%), GOOG 600.24 (-1.5%), FCX 51.69 (-1.4%), TBT 38.78 (-1.3%)

All (mainly) because of Libya and the contagion of protest across the Middle East. The violence. Quaddafi. But intervention is imminent. Them big ships loaded to the gills with peacemaking weaponry are closing in on Libya sooner or later. Crude will return to 'normalcy.' 

Didn't trade today. I'm starting to realize that even when the direction of the market is fairly clear, the artificial vapors are affecting my judgment. Otherwise I would've jumped in when SLW pulled back roughly 50% on today's gain. I would've trusted what I've seen and bought UCO. I definitely would've opened a UCO position as a hedge if I were long AAPL. Instead, I stayed all cash, as I have since early in the week. 

A coward, yes, but a coward who can relax this weekend and return Monday morning fully locked and loaded. Takes a bit of a twisted mind to attack this particular market. Will work on that this weekend. 

Friday reading
AP: Oil settles at highest level since Sept. 2008 (Mar 4 2011) "Oil prices rose past $104 a barrel to end the week at a 29-month high..."

AP: Burst of hiring could mark turning point for jobs (Mar 4 2011)

The Telegrah: Libyan rebels vow 'victory or death' (Mar 4 2011)

King World News: John Hathaway: $50 to $60 silver, US dollar in danger (Mar 3 2011) "If we have a continuation of QE2 past June 30th, I wouldn't be surprised to see silver in the $50, $60 an ounce territory. PMs and oil top the list in what is becoming, apparently, an every-other-day switcheroo between equities and metals/oils.

The Fly: Yelp is a partner of Open Table, i.e. Asshat of the Week Award to Herb Greenberg/Brad Safalow (Mar 3 2011) "You f**king imbecile, Yelp is a partner of OPEN's. And, to top it off, the only relevent website that could ever threaten OPEN's dominance, Tripadvisor.com, have a partnership as well."

Zero Hedge: Utah pushes to accept gold, silver as alternative currency (Mar 3 2011)

Turd Ferguson: Silver consolidating above 34 (Mar 3 2011)