I formed a mock portfolio a few months back, not long after realizing that Aug. 16 was the bottom of the initial subprime mortage fiasco. Now, more than three months later, it's easy to see whether the current market is really doing as horribly as the media presents. So here's what I found, comparing the intra-day low of Aug. 16 versus Wedneday's closing prices.
Then versus Now
Apple: then 111, now 168, +50.9%
Amazon: then 70, now 79, +13.8%
Crocs: then 44, now 38, -12.1%
Garmin: then 86, now 91, +5.5%
Research in Motion: then 61, now 111, +80.4%
Baidu: then 161, now 307, +91.2%
CNOOC: then 92, now 159, +71.9%
Chipotle Mexican Grill: then 92, now 123, +34.1%
Flowserve: then 62, now 90, +45.6%
Google: then 480, now 660, +37.5%
Blue Nile: then 71, now 74, +4.4%
Nintendo: then 52, now 69, +33.9%
Under Armor: then 54, now 46, -14.1%
As a whole, with an evenly weighted investment in each of these stocks, they would be 34.1% in the positive. Even with the horrendous selloff of the past two weeks, 34% up isn't bad at all for three months of holding. Doesn't mean I'm going to return to a buy-and-never-sell practice, but the numbers appear to be more healthy than I had imagined. Far more.
Showing posts with label Blue Nile. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Blue Nile. Show all posts
Friday, November 23, 2007
Friday, October 12, 2007
Sketchy, shady street slime
Mr. Nice Guy within me thinks that hey, when Morgan Stanley downgraded Baidu yesterday, well, it was about reality and the possibility of BIDU's growth rate slowing, revenues tailing off, blah blah blah.
But Mr. Skeptic in me knows that Morgan Stanley laid off a bunch of employees yesterday, and in a further potentially profitable manuever, called for the downgrade to spur a selloff ... and inevitably, cheap shares to buy for the books.
Mr. Nice Guy within me also thinks that Citigroup's downgrade of Blue Nile (NILE) this morning is more of a possible downturn in online jewelry purchases, a byproduct of a slowing economy, indirectly related to foreclosures.
But Mr. Skeptic knows that it's a bunch of bullcrap, that Citigroup is simply trying to knock down NILE's shares to rake up cheap. With all the exposure to the mortgage meltdown, a whole lotta big boys out there are going to keep trying to scare the average investor out of his/her shares, all so they can get a stock like NILE down to 90 or 80 bucks when it's worth more than 100 right now.
Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me. But it won't scare me. Hell no. Still don't believe me? How about this: Deutsche Bank downgraded Citibank from buy to sell this morning, citing severe management ineptitude. You don't think Citigroup is desperate to do whatever it takes to maximize a profit?
I'm holding my NILE, you downgrading Citigroup bastards.
But Mr. Skeptic in me knows that Morgan Stanley laid off a bunch of employees yesterday, and in a further potentially profitable manuever, called for the downgrade to spur a selloff ... and inevitably, cheap shares to buy for the books.
Mr. Nice Guy within me also thinks that Citigroup's downgrade of Blue Nile (NILE) this morning is more of a possible downturn in online jewelry purchases, a byproduct of a slowing economy, indirectly related to foreclosures.
But Mr. Skeptic knows that it's a bunch of bullcrap, that Citigroup is simply trying to knock down NILE's shares to rake up cheap. With all the exposure to the mortgage meltdown, a whole lotta big boys out there are going to keep trying to scare the average investor out of his/her shares, all so they can get a stock like NILE down to 90 or 80 bucks when it's worth more than 100 right now.
Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me. But it won't scare me. Hell no. Still don't believe me? How about this: Deutsche Bank downgraded Citibank from buy to sell this morning, citing severe management ineptitude. You don't think Citigroup is desperate to do whatever it takes to maximize a profit?
I'm holding my NILE, you downgrading Citigroup bastards.
Monday, October 8, 2007
Bargain hunt yields few catches
No surprise here. The market is off the charts (yes, I will milk a cliche if it is true), so I don't expect to find any of my A and A- grade stocks to turn up as buys here.
My A graders — Amazon, Apple, Crocs, Garmin and Research in Motion — all bumped up on Friday. Only one is relatively cheap: Garmin (GRMN). Thanks to the panic sell-off last week, GRMN closed at 103.71 on Friday, well below its 10-day SMA (103.91) and just a tad above its 50-day SMA (102.64). CROX, meanwhile, closed at 67.70 for a meager gain on Friday. The stock is just a bit over its 10-day SMA (66.51) and far above its 50-day SMA (58.56).
The A- graders are a mixed bag as far as bargains go. Blue Nile (NILE) closed Friday at 94.32, below its 10-day SMA (95.84), but still high over its 50-day SMA (86.37). eBay closed at 38.75, below its 10-day SMA (39.15), but I'm not tempted because of the lack of real policing by the Co of rip-off sellers (my personal experience).
lululemon athletica (LULU) is tapering down from an all-time high. At 44.88, it is nearing its 10-day SMA (43.67). At 105.90, Potash (POT) is also hovering near its 10-day SMA (104.86). Synaptics (SYNA) closed Friday at 47, below its 10-day SMA (47.57). Under Armor, meanwhile, continues to drag. The stock closed Friday at 58.90, below its 10-day SMA (59.74) and 50-day SMA (62.53). UA is the only stock among my A and A- graders that has a lower 10-day average than 50-day average. If I were a doctor, my diagnosis of UA would require a stay in the hospital. The stock has been sick for awhile now, and with a high P/E and a history of mixed earnings results, buyers are staying away.
Pupule says: GRMN, NILE and SYNA are buys. UA is a solid buy if you like the Co. I like my other stocks too much to put anything into UA right now.
My A graders — Amazon, Apple, Crocs, Garmin and Research in Motion — all bumped up on Friday. Only one is relatively cheap: Garmin (GRMN). Thanks to the panic sell-off last week, GRMN closed at 103.71 on Friday, well below its 10-day SMA (103.91) and just a tad above its 50-day SMA (102.64). CROX, meanwhile, closed at 67.70 for a meager gain on Friday. The stock is just a bit over its 10-day SMA (66.51) and far above its 50-day SMA (58.56).
The A- graders are a mixed bag as far as bargains go. Blue Nile (NILE) closed Friday at 94.32, below its 10-day SMA (95.84), but still high over its 50-day SMA (86.37). eBay closed at 38.75, below its 10-day SMA (39.15), but I'm not tempted because of the lack of real policing by the Co of rip-off sellers (my personal experience).
lululemon athletica (LULU) is tapering down from an all-time high. At 44.88, it is nearing its 10-day SMA (43.67). At 105.90, Potash (POT) is also hovering near its 10-day SMA (104.86). Synaptics (SYNA) closed Friday at 47, below its 10-day SMA (47.57). Under Armor, meanwhile, continues to drag. The stock closed Friday at 58.90, below its 10-day SMA (59.74) and 50-day SMA (62.53). UA is the only stock among my A and A- graders that has a lower 10-day average than 50-day average. If I were a doctor, my diagnosis of UA would require a stay in the hospital. The stock has been sick for awhile now, and with a high P/E and a history of mixed earnings results, buyers are staying away.
Pupule says: GRMN, NILE and SYNA are buys. UA is a solid buy if you like the Co. I like my other stocks too much to put anything into UA right now.
Thursday, September 20, 2007
Bargain shopping yields 3 fair prices
Flat market today. A pause to refresh. Pit stop. Calm before the storm. Whatever cliche works for you, the next question is, where does the market go from here? Do stocks simply ramp up or will the market just tread sideways until earnings?
I'm guessing it will be the latter. U.S. economy slowing, global economy still forging ahead. Speaking of the latter, I'm surprised with my lack of China exposure in my portfolio. At one time, I had small pieces of Focus Media and Sina. I got out of FMCN because of its internal accounting issues. The Co still hasn't reported Q2 results, and Nasdaq hasn't settled their situation. SINA is China's top portal, and I would feel OK about stepping back in at a healthy entry point.
Baidu? At these levels, no. No way. A trader's fantasy, though. Now I want to look at what may be in the bargain bin of A and A- grade stocks.
Amazon 89. Leveling off and volume has declined for the past three days since the Fed rate cuts. After blowout Q2 earnings, Georges Yared wrote that the mutual funds would be marching into this stock. Then the market got skittish and AMZN went to 69 on sub-prime meltdown day (August 16). Well, 69 to 89 in a month ain't too shabby. The stock is trading slightly above its 10-day SMA (87). Jeff Bezos rules online retailing, and someday, Outer Space. The stock usually trades like the black sheep of the A grade family. Lags behind, then explodes. Pupule says: Wait.
Apple 140. Down for a second day in a row, just fractionally, on lower volume. Still trading above its moving averages; 10-day SMA is 137. Yared writes that the days of AAPL below 150 are numbered. I remember thinking that the stock was stuck in the 90s forever. That was in April. And then I let go of my shares despite my complete and utter belief about the iPhone and the Co. Never again, never again. Pupule says: Wait.
Crocs 56. The effect of nationwide reports about the sandals and escalator accidents is beginning to subside. Though CROX was up 2% today to 56.45, it continues to trade below its 10-day SMA (57) and EMA (56.99). Today's gain came on lower volume — there's not much conviction on either side of the fence right now. Is this a great buying opportunity? Pupule says: Buy small.
Garmin 106. Stock was down nearly 1% today on lower volume. GRMN (106.75) is a hair above its 10-day SMA (106.44) and EMA (106.25). Like all the A graders, this is a great Co that is hard to resist. Pupule says: Buy small.
Research in Motion 90. Down 1.4% today, but well above its moving averages. 10-day SMA is 86, EMA is 87. Pupule says: Wait.
Baidu 277. The stock was up again today, fractionally. BIDU has traded higher in nine of the last 10 sessions. Insane. The stock is at nosebleed levels. The 10-day SMA is 242 and the 10-day EMA is 249. Pupule says: Wait.
Blue Nile 99. Bit of a surprise that NILE is holding up with strength here. Strength? Yesterday, the stock hit 98 and did a free-fall to 91. Looked like the end of a nice ride for me (from 80). But NILE gathered itself and longs pushed it back up to 95. Today, with continued solid volume, NILE hit 100 briefly before recording an all-time closing high. Stock has been up in eight of the last nine sessions and is trading far above moving averages. 10-day SMA is 86; 10-day EMA is 89. Pupule says: Wait.
Chipotle Mexican Grill 110. Down 1.8% after five up sessions in a row. Volume today was low, but the stock is still above its 10-day SMA (97) and 10-day EMA (107). Pupule says: Wait.
CNOOC Ltd. 148. Oil hit a new high at $83 per barrel, but CNOOC dipped 3.5% today. Inevitable after zooming from a low of 92 one month ago to a high of 155 yesterday. Still a ways to go before my favorite oil/natural gas stock is buyable. 10-day SMA: 134. 10-day EMA: 137. Pupule says: Wait.
Flowserve 77. The opportunity to buy this pump parts company was a week ago, when I wrote about its discounted price. FLS is finally joining the party, and in a big way. Down a skosh today, but still expensive. 10-day SMA: 72. 10-day EMA: 74. Pupule says: Wait.
Google 552. Like NILE and FLS, GOOG was terribly oversold not so long ago. Since disappointing the street with Q2 results (and only because the Co invested in a ton of new employees mostly in China), the stock languished until this week. Today, GOOG was up another 1% on steady volume. In fact, the stock has been up seven of the last eight trading days, and volume on that down day was miniscule. 10-day SMA: 529. 10-day EMA: 533. Pupule says: Wait. When Baidu cools off, so will Google.
lululemon athletica 39. Another day, another all-time high for LULU (41-plus mid-day). Volume was substantially down today, but today's increase (3.6%) defied the market's down day. Four up days in a row, lower volume ... might be time for the stock to take a breather. Then again, tomorrow's Friday, and some of the big houses might want to furnish their rooms with sparkling new lululemon goodies. Trading well above its 10-day averages. Pupule says: Wait.
McDonald's 54. A nice, reliable way to play China's booming economy. Mickey D was down 1% today, but volume was weak after several huge days on the upside since the Co's announcement of a 50% dividend hike. I sit in Starbucks, but I invest in Mickey D. 10-day SMA: 53. 10-day EMA: 50. Pupule says: Wait.
Nintendo 63. The stock languished in the 50s for a six-week stretch, doing its best CROX imitation. Now that the Co has announced increased supply of the Wii console for the US this holiday season, there's reason to be bullish again. Apparently, longs didn't wait, pushing the stock up in four out of five days. Today's 1.1% decline was due, and the trend is up, but it's better to be patient. 10-day SMA: 59. 10-day EMA: 60. Pupule says: Wait.
Potash 98. Instead of slowing momentum, Potash saw volume increase in today's massive 5.1% run-up. This stock never ceases to amaze me. I find myself writing the same things about POT that I did about CEO. 10-day SMA: 90. 10-day EMA: 91. Pupule says: Waaaait.
Synaptics 46. Huge move up came to a halt yesterday. Today, the stock sold off 3%. 10-day SMA: 44. 10-day EMA: 45. Close but no cigar. I like touchscreen, I like this Co, but ... Pupule says: Wait.
Under Armor 63. Having a high valuation (forward P/E of 48 versus CROX's forward P/E of 22) doesn't help UA sometimes. Down 2.9% today, five down days in the last six and nine downers in the last 12. Co needs at least one more blowout quarter to silence the bears, shorts and doubters. Until then, the stock will continue to snooze. UA (63.34) is trading below its 10-day EMA (63.60) and just above its 10-day SMA (63.26). Pupule says: Price is reasonable, but buy very small if at all.
Best buys
I'm guessing it will be the latter. U.S. economy slowing, global economy still forging ahead. Speaking of the latter, I'm surprised with my lack of China exposure in my portfolio. At one time, I had small pieces of Focus Media and Sina. I got out of FMCN because of its internal accounting issues. The Co still hasn't reported Q2 results, and Nasdaq hasn't settled their situation. SINA is China's top portal, and I would feel OK about stepping back in at a healthy entry point.
Baidu? At these levels, no. No way. A trader's fantasy, though. Now I want to look at what may be in the bargain bin of A and A- grade stocks.
Amazon 89. Leveling off and volume has declined for the past three days since the Fed rate cuts. After blowout Q2 earnings, Georges Yared wrote that the mutual funds would be marching into this stock. Then the market got skittish and AMZN went to 69 on sub-prime meltdown day (August 16). Well, 69 to 89 in a month ain't too shabby. The stock is trading slightly above its 10-day SMA (87). Jeff Bezos rules online retailing, and someday, Outer Space. The stock usually trades like the black sheep of the A grade family. Lags behind, then explodes. Pupule says: Wait.Apple 140. Down for a second day in a row, just fractionally, on lower volume. Still trading above its moving averages; 10-day SMA is 137. Yared writes that the days of AAPL below 150 are numbered. I remember thinking that the stock was stuck in the 90s forever. That was in April. And then I let go of my shares despite my complete and utter belief about the iPhone and the Co. Never again, never again. Pupule says: Wait.
Crocs 56. The effect of nationwide reports about the sandals and escalator accidents is beginning to subside. Though CROX was up 2% today to 56.45, it continues to trade below its 10-day SMA (57) and EMA (56.99). Today's gain came on lower volume — there's not much conviction on either side of the fence right now. Is this a great buying opportunity? Pupule says: Buy small.
Garmin 106. Stock was down nearly 1% today on lower volume. GRMN (106.75) is a hair above its 10-day SMA (106.44) and EMA (106.25). Like all the A graders, this is a great Co that is hard to resist. Pupule says: Buy small.
Research in Motion 90. Down 1.4% today, but well above its moving averages. 10-day SMA is 86, EMA is 87. Pupule says: Wait.
Baidu 277. The stock was up again today, fractionally. BIDU has traded higher in nine of the last 10 sessions. Insane. The stock is at nosebleed levels. The 10-day SMA is 242 and the 10-day EMA is 249. Pupule says: Wait. Blue Nile 99. Bit of a surprise that NILE is holding up with strength here. Strength? Yesterday, the stock hit 98 and did a free-fall to 91. Looked like the end of a nice ride for me (from 80). But NILE gathered itself and longs pushed it back up to 95. Today, with continued solid volume, NILE hit 100 briefly before recording an all-time closing high. Stock has been up in eight of the last nine sessions and is trading far above moving averages. 10-day SMA is 86; 10-day EMA is 89. Pupule says: Wait.
Chipotle Mexican Grill 110. Down 1.8% after five up sessions in a row. Volume today was low, but the stock is still above its 10-day SMA (97) and 10-day EMA (107). Pupule says: Wait.
CNOOC Ltd. 148. Oil hit a new high at $83 per barrel, but CNOOC dipped 3.5% today. Inevitable after zooming from a low of 92 one month ago to a high of 155 yesterday. Still a ways to go before my favorite oil/natural gas stock is buyable. 10-day SMA: 134. 10-day EMA: 137. Pupule says: Wait.
Flowserve 77. The opportunity to buy this pump parts company was a week ago, when I wrote about its discounted price. FLS is finally joining the party, and in a big way. Down a skosh today, but still expensive. 10-day SMA: 72. 10-day EMA: 74. Pupule says: Wait.
Google 552. Like NILE and FLS, GOOG was terribly oversold not so long ago. Since disappointing the street with Q2 results (and only because the Co invested in a ton of new employees mostly in China), the stock languished until this week. Today, GOOG was up another 1% on steady volume. In fact, the stock has been up seven of the last eight trading days, and volume on that down day was miniscule. 10-day SMA: 529. 10-day EMA: 533. Pupule says: Wait. When Baidu cools off, so will Google.
lululemon athletica 39. Another day, another all-time high for LULU (41-plus mid-day). Volume was substantially down today, but today's increase (3.6%) defied the market's down day. Four up days in a row, lower volume ... might be time for the stock to take a breather. Then again, tomorrow's Friday, and some of the big houses might want to furnish their rooms with sparkling new lululemon goodies. Trading well above its 10-day averages. Pupule says: Wait.
McDonald's 54. A nice, reliable way to play China's booming economy. Mickey D was down 1% today, but volume was weak after several huge days on the upside since the Co's announcement of a 50% dividend hike. I sit in Starbucks, but I invest in Mickey D. 10-day SMA: 53. 10-day EMA: 50. Pupule says: Wait.
Nintendo 63. The stock languished in the 50s for a six-week stretch, doing its best CROX imitation. Now that the Co has announced increased supply of the Wii console for the US this holiday season, there's reason to be bullish again. Apparently, longs didn't wait, pushing the stock up in four out of five days. Today's 1.1% decline was due, and the trend is up, but it's better to be patient. 10-day SMA: 59. 10-day EMA: 60. Pupule says: Wait.
Potash 98. Instead of slowing momentum, Potash saw volume increase in today's massive 5.1% run-up. This stock never ceases to amaze me. I find myself writing the same things about POT that I did about CEO. 10-day SMA: 90. 10-day EMA: 91. Pupule says: Waaaait.
Synaptics 46. Huge move up came to a halt yesterday. Today, the stock sold off 3%. 10-day SMA: 44. 10-day EMA: 45. Close but no cigar. I like touchscreen, I like this Co, but ... Pupule says: Wait.
Under Armor 63. Having a high valuation (forward P/E of 48 versus CROX's forward P/E of 22) doesn't help UA sometimes. Down 2.9% today, five down days in the last six and nine downers in the last 12. Co needs at least one more blowout quarter to silence the bears, shorts and doubters. Until then, the stock will continue to snooze. UA (63.34) is trading below its 10-day EMA (63.60) and just above its 10-day SMA (63.26). Pupule says: Price is reasonable, but buy very small if at all.
Best buys
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
It's no fantasy: The best stocks and NFL teams have elite traits
There's no fighting the trend, no fighting the Fed. That's why, as much as I adhere to fundamentals and technicals, I view my remaining buying power with a trading mentality. The common denominator, though, is that I am willing to deal with A and A- grade stocks. Best of breed, pack leaders, however you label them, it's pointless to avoid great companies and settle for mediocre outfits. Why avoid Tom Brady and the New England Patriots only to settle for the middling New York Jets? The Arizona Cardinals have offensive weapons, but a horrible offensive line, so I'd rather ride the San Diego Chargers and LT.
NFL fanaticism is a far cry from investing hard-earned money into stocks and a fickle market, but the principle applies. Not gonna put money on a losing team, not gonna put cash on a longshot company. I've got pieces of my five A grade stocks now. Goodie.
Amazon = Denver Broncos
Apple = New England Patriots
Crocs = New Orleans Saints
Garmin = Pittsburgh Steelers
Research in Motion = Indianapolis Colts
Fair? I think so. Of these five A grade stocks, Crocs faces the most scrutiny. Even before they examine the numbers, there are a lot of haters. Some people, mostly men, just can't stand the sight of Cayman sandals, and therefore, they write CROX off as a useless, doomed fad. The same bears are taunting longs over the recent media hysteria over Crocs and escalators.
Sounds a little like the "fans" jumping off the Saints' bandwagon after an 0-2 start. The escalator problem is real, but here in Hawaii, we've all learned to wear slippers to the mall, and the slippers most of us wear are much thinner, much more floppy than Caymans. Parents on the mainland will wise up, I think, and take their kids' Crocs off before stepping on escalators. Plain common sense.
Or they'll just wear tennis shoes to the mall and use the Crocs for everywhere else. I'm not worried about my CROX. Common sense and huge growth will continue to prevail. Here are a few more NFL analogies.
Jeff Bezos' clone in the NFL is Mike Shanahan. Master game-planner, visionary and relentless. The Broncos' zone-blocking scheme is one of the automatic successes every year, as is Amazon's peerless distribution model.
Garmin isn't an old, historic franchise like Pittsburgh, but has a killer app that is quickly becoming a part of our culture. GPS, GPS, GPS.
RIMM is explosive, the BlackBerry gives users reach and power while on the go. It is novel technology, all about control. It is Peyton Manning calling audibles and finding open receivers at will against any defense.
Baidu = Detroit Lions
Blue Nile = Cincinnati Bengals
Google = San Diego Chargers
McDonald's = Dallas Cowboys
Nintendo = Seattle Seahawks
Baidu has a savvy, U.S.-educated and experienced CEO (Robin Li, formerly of Infoseek) and a lot of explosive growth ahead, much like the passing fiends at Detroit.
Blue Nile is big on margins, the first-mover in its niche, but there is a lot of doubting from the bleachers when it comes to off-field activity. NILE has heavy insider selling; the Bengals had, well, indiscretions.
Google and the Chargers are both powerful teams who haven't quite reached their plateau yet.
McDonald's and "America's Team" are twins. The Cowboys were down after the "Triplets" retired, but like Mickey D's, Dallas back with a swagger and global dominance. (And yes, Tony Romo quarterbacks one of my fantasy teams.)
Nintendo owns the Seattle Mariners, and like the Seahawks, have been much improved in recent years. Can Nintendo and the Seahawks get the gold this winter? I'm more bullish on the Wii and DS than I am on Shaun Alexander and Matt Hasselbeck.
NFL fanaticism is a far cry from investing hard-earned money into stocks and a fickle market, but the principle applies. Not gonna put money on a losing team, not gonna put cash on a longshot company. I've got pieces of my five A grade stocks now. Goodie.
Amazon = Denver Broncos
Apple = New England Patriots
Crocs = New Orleans Saints
Garmin = Pittsburgh Steelers
Research in Motion = Indianapolis Colts
Fair? I think so. Of these five A grade stocks, Crocs faces the most scrutiny. Even before they examine the numbers, there are a lot of haters. Some people, mostly men, just can't stand the sight of Cayman sandals, and therefore, they write CROX off as a useless, doomed fad. The same bears are taunting longs over the recent media hysteria over Crocs and escalators.
Sounds a little like the "fans" jumping off the Saints' bandwagon after an 0-2 start. The escalator problem is real, but here in Hawaii, we've all learned to wear slippers to the mall, and the slippers most of us wear are much thinner, much more floppy than Caymans. Parents on the mainland will wise up, I think, and take their kids' Crocs off before stepping on escalators. Plain common sense.
Or they'll just wear tennis shoes to the mall and use the Crocs for everywhere else. I'm not worried about my CROX. Common sense and huge growth will continue to prevail. Here are a few more NFL analogies.
Jeff Bezos' clone in the NFL is Mike Shanahan. Master game-planner, visionary and relentless. The Broncos' zone-blocking scheme is one of the automatic successes every year, as is Amazon's peerless distribution model.
Garmin isn't an old, historic franchise like Pittsburgh, but has a killer app that is quickly becoming a part of our culture. GPS, GPS, GPS.
RIMM is explosive, the BlackBerry gives users reach and power while on the go. It is novel technology, all about control. It is Peyton Manning calling audibles and finding open receivers at will against any defense.
Baidu = Detroit Lions
Blue Nile = Cincinnati Bengals
Google = San Diego Chargers
McDonald's = Dallas Cowboys
Nintendo = Seattle Seahawks
Baidu has a savvy, U.S.-educated and experienced CEO (Robin Li, formerly of Infoseek) and a lot of explosive growth ahead, much like the passing fiends at Detroit.
Blue Nile is big on margins, the first-mover in its niche, but there is a lot of doubting from the bleachers when it comes to off-field activity. NILE has heavy insider selling; the Bengals had, well, indiscretions.
Google and the Chargers are both powerful teams who haven't quite reached their plateau yet.
McDonald's and "America's Team" are twins. The Cowboys were down after the "Triplets" retired, but like Mickey D's, Dallas back with a swagger and global dominance. (And yes, Tony Romo quarterbacks one of my fantasy teams.)
Nintendo owns the Seattle Mariners, and like the Seahawks, have been much improved in recent years. Can Nintendo and the Seahawks get the gold this winter? I'm more bullish on the Wii and DS than I am on Shaun Alexander and Matt Hasselbeck.
Thursday, September 13, 2007
To Infinity and Beyond
Waking up at 7 a.m. Hawaii time is no big deal. Waking up with the market only 3 hours from the final bell, well, that's never boring. This morning, I woke to find NILE up $6 (6.5%) since yesterday. Now trading at 86, Nile is up 11 since last Friday.
That's good news, of course, for NILE longs. For me, it's bittersweet. I pulled a buy order at $75 on Friday. Then on Monday, I got in at 80, but just a small slice of the pie. (The stock wasn't cheap any more, above it's 50-day MA, but still trading at its 13-day MA.) In my mind, I'm keeping dry powder for a correction, not for a stock that had languishied at its 50-day moving averages last week.
So, with Nasdaq up 17 points, it'll be interesting to see what the stock does. Yesterday, NILE ran up to 83 mid-day, then pulled back to 80 by the close. Will it do the same today? If it does, then it would be clear that the stock is being used and abused by traders. Or perhaps former longs are getting over the immense insider selling that tackled the stock in the past few weeks. My guess is that it's the former.
To infinity and beyond? Aah, I'm guessing not.
That's good news, of course, for NILE longs. For me, it's bittersweet. I pulled a buy order at $75 on Friday. Then on Monday, I got in at 80, but just a small slice of the pie. (The stock wasn't cheap any more, above it's 50-day MA, but still trading at its 13-day MA.) In my mind, I'm keeping dry powder for a correction, not for a stock that had languishied at its 50-day moving averages last week. So, with Nasdaq up 17 points, it'll be interesting to see what the stock does. Yesterday, NILE ran up to 83 mid-day, then pulled back to 80 by the close. Will it do the same today? If it does, then it would be clear that the stock is being used and abused by traders. Or perhaps former longs are getting over the immense insider selling that tackled the stock in the past few weeks. My guess is that it's the former.
To infinity and beyond? Aah, I'm guessing not.
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
Up, down, happy frown
The rest of the market went up today. My porftolio stayed down. Apple down. Crocs barely up. Nintendo neutral. My tidbits of Under Armor (down slightly) and Baidu (up) don't affect the sum much. I'm waiting for a chance to get my A grade stock picks at a reasonable price, but it just ain't happening. Time to do a little studying.
Amazon 86. The stock jumped 3.5% today, keeping the AMZN rally alive and well. After looking dead in the 70s for such a long time, it's nice to see longs on the winning side of this growth story. Chinese are astute shoppers, at least the ones i know, and I have great optimism for the Co's growth in China. At this price, though, the stock is far above its 13-, 50- and 200-day moving averages (exponential and simple). Pupule says: Wait.
Apple 135. Low volume today as profit-takers overtook the stock on a -0.89% day. You know, the stock moved up yesterday from 131 to 138 on the announcement of the one-millionth iPhone sold. No other real reason or catalyst. That's life with Apple. At 135, AAPL is touching its 13-day MA, which makes it interesting. Do as I say, not as I did (bought at 135 and 144). Pupule says: Buy small, if at all.
Crocs 57. The stock is trading at 23 times next year's earnings. Compare that to Under Armor, which trades at 50 times. The only reason, and this is my gut feeling, that CROX isn't above 60 is that there is extreme enthusiasm for the Co's great fundamentals and growth on one hand, and extreme pessimism and hatred of the products on the other. Practically every day there's blogger or columnist who scribes his immense hatred of the poofy, hole-ridden Cayman sandals. Never mind the Co's robust future. Just blind hatred. That's why it's taking Crocs more time to ride up than it really should. Power to the patient. The stock is trading at its 13-day MA. Pupule says: Buy small.
Garmin 106. One of my fantasies is buy all the Garmin shares I possibly can, stuff them into a white pillowcase, fall asleep, and then wake up with an extra pillowcase filled with cool Garmin GPS stuff and hard cash. The stock jumped 2.4% today. I keep waiting for a bargain, but the stock drifts above its 13-day MA. Pupule says: Keep waiting.
Research in Motion 83. For a moment (yesterday), RIMM traded at its 13-day moving averages. Today, up nearly 1% and above the MA again. Pupule says: Wait.
Baidu 227. August 16. BIDU traded at 161, below its 13- and 50-day MA. It took the stock just three sessions to explode over both averages. It hasn't touched them since. Today's 4.1% run doesn't help. Can't say I'm surprised. As the U.S. economy slows, more and more investors and traders will look to China as a safe haven. Sorta safe. Pupule says: Wait, wait, wait.
Blue Nile 80. I picked up a few shares of the world's favorite online jewelry company today. I had a buy order on Friday at $75.50, but I pulled it when there were some complications in my trading account. Well, I regret it now. And yet, at 80, NILE is trading at its 13-day MA (and above the 50-day averages). All that insider selling kept the stock half buried for the past week. Funny how you can find jewels by digging a little. Pupule says: Buy small.
Chipotle Mexican Grill 103. My job took me to a press conference at a new place in Waikiki called Senor Frog's yesterday. I wasn't planning to stay afterward, but the food was free, the company was good, and man, it was worth it. Senor Frog's has only two U.S. locations, with plans to open another in Las Vegas. Other locations include Cancun. There's a pattern here, isn't there? If CMG is as good as Senor Frog's, I might be a believer. From what I know, CMG is more of a fast-food style than Senor Frog's, making fast, fresh Mexican food better than anyone. Anyway, CMG the stock was below its 13-day averages yesterday. Today, with the 3% bump up, the stock is above the MA. Pupule says: Wait.
CNOOC Ltd. 127. This stock is all over creation, goofier than a penny stock if you look at the chart. I still lament the major discount of a month ago, when CEO traded as low as 92 — below its 200-day MA. At 127 (up 2.8% today), it is way too expensive. Pupule says: Wait.
Flowserve 70. Up 1.9% today, now touching its 50-day MA. This stock has struggled and struggled for respect. Though its fundamentals and growth numbers are as good as most of my A- picks, the stock has closed above its 13-day MA only once since August 8. Pupule says: Strong buy.
Google 521. Another stock that can't get the motor started for long. Up 1.3% today, still trading within its 13-day MA. Will Google lose in China? That question should be banned. Pupule says: Buy.
Nintendo 57. In a rut for two whole months now. Why? Weak dollar. Strong yen. The stock doubled between November and June. Blah blah blah. Try out the Wii. This baby will sell like hotcakes, pancakes, wedding cakes, cake with coconut frosting, fudge syrup and a cherry on top, to boot. The DS is addicting. It is a legal drug that, unlike the Wii, can be carried near and far. I still think The Sims™ is coming to the Wii sooner than later. The stock is at its 13-day MA, the Co said last month that expanded production is not possible (yeth, that sucketh, I know), and the Co still won't allow the shares in Tokyo to be sold in regular increments. A minimum buy of Nintendo stock on the Tokyo Stock Exchange is 100 shares, or $41,000. Oh well. Pupule says: Buy small.
Potash 89. Up 2.1% today. Damn, did anyone really know that a fertilizer stock would be ballistic like this? This is a pre-split 267. Holy crapoli. At this price, the stock is above its MA. Pupule says: Wait.
Under Armor 62. Down a skosh (-0.37%) today. With a forward P/E of 50, seems like nobody is willing to fork up for the expensive price of the stock. UA is trading below its 13-day MA now, trending toward its 50-day MA. Of all the A- picks, I'm least bullish on UA, which has a history of hit-and-miss execution on earnings. Seems like a logical buyout for Nike. How about a merger with Crocs and their secret-recipe sensation Croslite? That would give Nike a serious run for its money. Pupule says: Buy.
Best buys
Amazon 86. The stock jumped 3.5% today, keeping the AMZN rally alive and well. After looking dead in the 70s for such a long time, it's nice to see longs on the winning side of this growth story. Chinese are astute shoppers, at least the ones i know, and I have great optimism for the Co's growth in China. At this price, though, the stock is far above its 13-, 50- and 200-day moving averages (exponential and simple). Pupule says: Wait. Apple 135. Low volume today as profit-takers overtook the stock on a -0.89% day. You know, the stock moved up yesterday from 131 to 138 on the announcement of the one-millionth iPhone sold. No other real reason or catalyst. That's life with Apple. At 135, AAPL is touching its 13-day MA, which makes it interesting. Do as I say, not as I did (bought at 135 and 144). Pupule says: Buy small, if at all.
Crocs 57. The stock is trading at 23 times next year's earnings. Compare that to Under Armor, which trades at 50 times. The only reason, and this is my gut feeling, that CROX isn't above 60 is that there is extreme enthusiasm for the Co's great fundamentals and growth on one hand, and extreme pessimism and hatred of the products on the other. Practically every day there's blogger or columnist who scribes his immense hatred of the poofy, hole-ridden Cayman sandals. Never mind the Co's robust future. Just blind hatred. That's why it's taking Crocs more time to ride up than it really should. Power to the patient. The stock is trading at its 13-day MA. Pupule says: Buy small.
Garmin 106. One of my fantasies is buy all the Garmin shares I possibly can, stuff them into a white pillowcase, fall asleep, and then wake up with an extra pillowcase filled with cool Garmin GPS stuff and hard cash. The stock jumped 2.4% today. I keep waiting for a bargain, but the stock drifts above its 13-day MA. Pupule says: Keep waiting.
Research in Motion 83. For a moment (yesterday), RIMM traded at its 13-day moving averages. Today, up nearly 1% and above the MA again. Pupule says: Wait.
Baidu 227. August 16. BIDU traded at 161, below its 13- and 50-day MA. It took the stock just three sessions to explode over both averages. It hasn't touched them since. Today's 4.1% run doesn't help. Can't say I'm surprised. As the U.S. economy slows, more and more investors and traders will look to China as a safe haven. Sorta safe. Pupule says: Wait, wait, wait. Blue Nile 80. I picked up a few shares of the world's favorite online jewelry company today. I had a buy order on Friday at $75.50, but I pulled it when there were some complications in my trading account. Well, I regret it now. And yet, at 80, NILE is trading at its 13-day MA (and above the 50-day averages). All that insider selling kept the stock half buried for the past week. Funny how you can find jewels by digging a little. Pupule says: Buy small.
Chipotle Mexican Grill 103. My job took me to a press conference at a new place in Waikiki called Senor Frog's yesterday. I wasn't planning to stay afterward, but the food was free, the company was good, and man, it was worth it. Senor Frog's has only two U.S. locations, with plans to open another in Las Vegas. Other locations include Cancun. There's a pattern here, isn't there? If CMG is as good as Senor Frog's, I might be a believer. From what I know, CMG is more of a fast-food style than Senor Frog's, making fast, fresh Mexican food better than anyone. Anyway, CMG the stock was below its 13-day averages yesterday. Today, with the 3% bump up, the stock is above the MA. Pupule says: Wait.
CNOOC Ltd. 127. This stock is all over creation, goofier than a penny stock if you look at the chart. I still lament the major discount of a month ago, when CEO traded as low as 92 — below its 200-day MA. At 127 (up 2.8% today), it is way too expensive. Pupule says: Wait.
Flowserve 70. Up 1.9% today, now touching its 50-day MA. This stock has struggled and struggled for respect. Though its fundamentals and growth numbers are as good as most of my A- picks, the stock has closed above its 13-day MA only once since August 8. Pupule says: Strong buy.
Google 521. Another stock that can't get the motor started for long. Up 1.3% today, still trading within its 13-day MA. Will Google lose in China? That question should be banned. Pupule says: Buy.
Nintendo 57. In a rut for two whole months now. Why? Weak dollar. Strong yen. The stock doubled between November and June. Blah blah blah. Try out the Wii. This baby will sell like hotcakes, pancakes, wedding cakes, cake with coconut frosting, fudge syrup and a cherry on top, to boot. The DS is addicting. It is a legal drug that, unlike the Wii, can be carried near and far. I still think The Sims™ is coming to the Wii sooner than later. The stock is at its 13-day MA, the Co said last month that expanded production is not possible (yeth, that sucketh, I know), and the Co still won't allow the shares in Tokyo to be sold in regular increments. A minimum buy of Nintendo stock on the Tokyo Stock Exchange is 100 shares, or $41,000. Oh well. Pupule says: Buy small.
Potash 89. Up 2.1% today. Damn, did anyone really know that a fertilizer stock would be ballistic like this? This is a pre-split 267. Holy crapoli. At this price, the stock is above its MA. Pupule says: Wait.
Under Armor 62. Down a skosh (-0.37%) today. With a forward P/E of 50, seems like nobody is willing to fork up for the expensive price of the stock. UA is trading below its 13-day MA now, trending toward its 50-day MA. Of all the A- picks, I'm least bullish on UA, which has a history of hit-and-miss execution on earnings. Seems like a logical buyout for Nike. How about a merger with Crocs and their secret-recipe sensation Croslite? That would give Nike a serious run for its money. Pupule says: Buy.
Best buys
Monday, September 10, 2007
Appleholic unapologetic
My name is Pupule Paul. I am an Appleholic. I am not only an Appleholic, my portfolio is overweight in AAPL. If my portfolio were apples and oranges, we'd be talking about many apples and maybe half an orange. It's that bad. And it may not change real soon.
See, if I venutre out in this crapcrazy market any time soon, it'll be only to buy A grade stocks. Though I like my five A graders, I actually have shares of only two: AAPL and CROX. Am I a fricking hypocrite? Probably so. Until I own pieces of Amazon, Garmin and Research in Motion, I cannot defend myself from any accusation in that vein. I won't try to own all my A graders and A- graders, though. That would give me a portfolio of 14 stocks. A bit too many, though I am just a teeny bit long BIDU and UA, the latter mostly for my UA-worshipping nephew.
FLS is definitely still a strong buy, and its more than likely NILE will still be a buy. I'll look over my A and A- grade stock charts tonight. For now, back to work.
See, if I venutre out in this crapcrazy market any time soon, it'll be only to buy A grade stocks. Though I like my five A graders, I actually have shares of only two: AAPL and CROX. Am I a fricking hypocrite? Probably so. Until I own pieces of Amazon, Garmin and Research in Motion, I cannot defend myself from any accusation in that vein. I won't try to own all my A graders and A- graders, though. That would give me a portfolio of 14 stocks. A bit too many, though I am just a teeny bit long BIDU and UA, the latter mostly for my UA-worshipping nephew.
FLS is definitely still a strong buy, and its more than likely NILE will still be a buy. I'll look over my A and A- grade stock charts tonight. For now, back to work.
Friday, September 7, 2007
Where does the maze lead us?
Subprime mortgages down the toidy. Job reports reflect major economic slowdown. Are things really as bad as they seem?
Unemployment is 4.5% and growth may slow to 2%. Meanwhile, growth in China is 11.9%. Hmm...
I'm far from being an alarmist, and though I refrained from buying today, sniffing around for bargains is never a fruitless pursuit. Though several of my fundamentally sound growth favorites — A and A- grade stocks — are at reasonable prices, I'm going to wait until Monday at the earliest to enter. If there's another dip early Monday, my spider-sense will be tingling.
Here's to the hunt.
Apple 131. Yesterday, it was the iPhone price cut. Today, the jobs report. In just three days, AAPL has sunk from 145 to an intra-day low today of 130. A shortie's paradise. At 131, AAPL is below its one-year 13- and 50-day simple and exponential moving averages. Pupule says: Buy small, wait for more discounting.
Amazon 84. Even with the dip, AMZN is trading far above its moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.
Crocs 56. Actually, 56.92. Since its blowout Q2 earnings report and raised guidance, CROX has traded mostly in the 55-60 range, but the market's vulnerabilities have opened the stock up to major dips. At 56, CROX is at its 13-day moving averages, but patience could reap bargain prices. Pupule says: Buy small and be patient.
Garmin 105. The stock came down and touched its 13-day MA today (102), but at 105 is a skosh too high. Love the Co, but the stock isn't in line yet. Pupule says: Wait.
Research in Motion 80. The Blackberry Cult makes more and more sense to me, yes, me ... a guy who didn't have a cellphone until 1999 (work requirement). I didn't had a cellphone with photo capability until a few months ago, and I still haven't touched an iPhone or any other newfangled fancy thingamajig. (I can't believe that I walked into the Apple store last week and didn't even look at an iPhone.) And yet, with everything that the Crackberry can do, I can understand the addiction. Beats carrying around a PC. As for the stock, it now touches its 13-day averages. Pupule says: Buy small, wait for big discounts.
Baidu 213. With the U.S. economy slowing to a snail's pace, China is obviously the place to be. However, at 213, BIDU is too pricey. Far above its moving averages, but trending closer. Pupule says: Wait.
Blue Nile 75. The insider selling has compounded the stock's problems. I'm still bullish based on the company's growth rates and fundamentals, as well as its first-mover position in the online jewelry pocket. At 75, NILE is at a major discount, far below its 13-day MA and almost below its 50-day averages. Pupule says: Strong buy.
Chipotle Mexican Grill 101. Stock is now touching its 13-day averages, far above 50-day MA. Pupule says: Wait.
CNOOC Ltd. 122. The stock barely moved despite today's 250-point drop on the Dow. At 122, much too pricey, well above all its moving averages. If you got in at 92-110 in mid-August, you are a genius. Pupule says: Wait, wait, wait.
Flowserve 69. Pumps and meters are not sexy, and that's the only reason why this brilliant company is trading at its 50-day MA, and far below its 13-day MA. Pupule says: Strong buy.
Google 519. Recent gains have evaporated, but the overall picture is bright. China. Cellphones. Cellphones in China. The Chinese rely on cellphones for almost all their internet access. Google isn't beloved by citizens of the Middle Kingdom, so the Co simply BUYS the love. It is working. The stock is trading between its 13- and 50-day MA. Pupule says: Buy cautiously, conservatively.
Nintendo 58. The stock was between its 13- and 50-day MA for a couple of days. Not now. At 58, NTDOY.PK is above its averages. Pupule says: Wait.
Potash 87. The stock is finally back to earth, sorta. At 86, POT is touching its 13-day MA. Pupule says: Buy small.
Under Armor 63. One of the few stocks in the green today. At 63, UA is scraping its 13-day MA, well above its 50-day MA. Forward P/E is 50, compared to CROX's 23. Guess which stock I prefer? Pupule says: Buy cautiously.
Today's best buys
Unemployment is 4.5% and growth may slow to 2%. Meanwhile, growth in China is 11.9%. Hmm...
I'm far from being an alarmist, and though I refrained from buying today, sniffing around for bargains is never a fruitless pursuit. Though several of my fundamentally sound growth favorites — A and A- grade stocks — are at reasonable prices, I'm going to wait until Monday at the earliest to enter. If there's another dip early Monday, my spider-sense will be tingling.
Here's to the hunt.
Apple 131. Yesterday, it was the iPhone price cut. Today, the jobs report. In just three days, AAPL has sunk from 145 to an intra-day low today of 130. A shortie's paradise. At 131, AAPL is below its one-year 13- and 50-day simple and exponential moving averages. Pupule says: Buy small, wait for more discounting. Amazon 84. Even with the dip, AMZN is trading far above its moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.
Crocs 56. Actually, 56.92. Since its blowout Q2 earnings report and raised guidance, CROX has traded mostly in the 55-60 range, but the market's vulnerabilities have opened the stock up to major dips. At 56, CROX is at its 13-day moving averages, but patience could reap bargain prices. Pupule says: Buy small and be patient.
Garmin 105. The stock came down and touched its 13-day MA today (102), but at 105 is a skosh too high. Love the Co, but the stock isn't in line yet. Pupule says: Wait.
Research in Motion 80. The Blackberry Cult makes more and more sense to me, yes, me ... a guy who didn't have a cellphone until 1999 (work requirement). I didn't had a cellphone with photo capability until a few months ago, and I still haven't touched an iPhone or any other newfangled fancy thingamajig. (I can't believe that I walked into the Apple store last week and didn't even look at an iPhone.) And yet, with everything that the Crackberry can do, I can understand the addiction. Beats carrying around a PC. As for the stock, it now touches its 13-day averages. Pupule says: Buy small, wait for big discounts.
Baidu 213. With the U.S. economy slowing to a snail's pace, China is obviously the place to be. However, at 213, BIDU is too pricey. Far above its moving averages, but trending closer. Pupule says: Wait. Blue Nile 75. The insider selling has compounded the stock's problems. I'm still bullish based on the company's growth rates and fundamentals, as well as its first-mover position in the online jewelry pocket. At 75, NILE is at a major discount, far below its 13-day MA and almost below its 50-day averages. Pupule says: Strong buy.
Chipotle Mexican Grill 101. Stock is now touching its 13-day averages, far above 50-day MA. Pupule says: Wait.
CNOOC Ltd. 122. The stock barely moved despite today's 250-point drop on the Dow. At 122, much too pricey, well above all its moving averages. If you got in at 92-110 in mid-August, you are a genius. Pupule says: Wait, wait, wait.
Flowserve 69. Pumps and meters are not sexy, and that's the only reason why this brilliant company is trading at its 50-day MA, and far below its 13-day MA. Pupule says: Strong buy.
Google 519. Recent gains have evaporated, but the overall picture is bright. China. Cellphones. Cellphones in China. The Chinese rely on cellphones for almost all their internet access. Google isn't beloved by citizens of the Middle Kingdom, so the Co simply BUYS the love. It is working. The stock is trading between its 13- and 50-day MA. Pupule says: Buy cautiously, conservatively.
Nintendo 58. The stock was between its 13- and 50-day MA for a couple of days. Not now. At 58, NTDOY.PK is above its averages. Pupule says: Wait.
Potash 87. The stock is finally back to earth, sorta. At 86, POT is touching its 13-day MA. Pupule says: Buy small.
Under Armor 63. One of the few stocks in the green today. At 63, UA is scraping its 13-day MA, well above its 50-day MA. Forward P/E is 50, compared to CROX's 23. Guess which stock I prefer? Pupule says: Buy cautiously.
Today's best buys
Thursday, September 6, 2007
Bargain Bin shopping time
It is nearly mid-afternoon (1:30 pm Eastern time) on a deceptively quiet afternoon in the marketplace. Do you know where your stocks are? It's time for another look at the bargain bin and see if any of my A and A- grade stock picks happen to be there.
Apple 134. AAPL is down 11 points off its recent high, 22 points above its mortage meltdown low of three weeks ago. Four huge days up were met by the selloff yesterday and today, triggered by the Co's announcement of lower iPhone prices, but mostly (I think) a lot of profit-taking. Yesterday's volume was major (83 million shares), but today pullback is on just 42 million so far. Now that the stock has dropped close to its 13-day simple and exponential moving averages, selling will dry up soon enough. The iPod Touch is a whole new realm of techno ecstacy. It will be quite a merry Christmas this year. Pupule says: Wait a little more.
Amazon 84. On a roll, up for a fourth day in a row. Well off its high of 88 and far above its moving averages. Intriguing to see how much and how soon AMZN will make inroads in the Middle Kingdom. Pupule says: Wait, wait, wait.
Crocs 57. Downgraded to 'hold' by Zacks today, the stock is up 3.3% anyway. Yesterday, CROX traded at a low of 54.48, well below its 13-day moving averages. Today's gain means the stock is right at its 13-day averages. Pupule says: Buyable, but not a bargain.
Garmin 106. I keep waiting for this baby to pull back to a decent price, but it just won't. Trading at an all-time high now, but decreasing volume says that GRMN may be ready for a breather. Pupule says: Worth waiting for.
Research in Motion 83. Two days of declines were met with today's fractional gain (so far). trading above its 13-day MA. Pupule says: Wait.
Baidu 219. Uh-uh. Today's miniscule pullback in China's favorite search engine is on much lower volume (after two days of major upside volume.) BIDU is a trader's fantasy, an investor's temptation. Pupule says: Wait.
Blue Nile 79. Insider selling has pissed off some longs and fed the bears. Here, NILE is well below its 13-day MA and near its 50-day MA. After significant volume on two down days (Tuesday and yesterday), today's minor gains come on mediocre volume. I'm not convinced the selloff is done, but I wouldn't be shy either. Pupule says: Buy.
Chipotle Mexican Grill 104. CMG is pulling back, but the heights here are still dizzying. Pupule says: Wait.
CNOOC Ltd. 122. For so long, CEO was available at true bargain prices. From August 10 to 22, the stock traded below its 13-day MA, and on several of those days, was below its 50-day MA. Now it's just too expensive even without today's 2.5% gain. Pupule says: Wait.
Flowserve 71. FLS is trading below its 50-day SMA, still a decent price. Pupule says: Not a bargain, but the price is right.
Google 523. GOOG is down more than 4 bucks (less than 1%) so far today, but the gains of the two previous days leave the stock above all moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.
Nintendo 55. Today, NTDOY.PK is trading up at about 58, which leaves the stock right at its 13-day moving averages. Yesterday's price was better, of course. Pupule says: Buy small, if anything.
Potash 89. Pricey here. POT hasn't been a bargain since August 21. Pupule says: Wait.
Under Armor 63. Short interest in UA was 50% just one month ago, but is down to "only" 32%. Today's 2.1% pullback brings the stock below its 13-day moving averages. Pupule says: Buy cautiously, not in bulk.
Today's best buys
Apple 134. AAPL is down 11 points off its recent high, 22 points above its mortage meltdown low of three weeks ago. Four huge days up were met by the selloff yesterday and today, triggered by the Co's announcement of lower iPhone prices, but mostly (I think) a lot of profit-taking. Yesterday's volume was major (83 million shares), but today pullback is on just 42 million so far. Now that the stock has dropped close to its 13-day simple and exponential moving averages, selling will dry up soon enough. The iPod Touch is a whole new realm of techno ecstacy. It will be quite a merry Christmas this year. Pupule says: Wait a little more. Amazon 84. On a roll, up for a fourth day in a row. Well off its high of 88 and far above its moving averages. Intriguing to see how much and how soon AMZN will make inroads in the Middle Kingdom. Pupule says: Wait, wait, wait.
Crocs 57. Downgraded to 'hold' by Zacks today, the stock is up 3.3% anyway. Yesterday, CROX traded at a low of 54.48, well below its 13-day moving averages. Today's gain means the stock is right at its 13-day averages. Pupule says: Buyable, but not a bargain.
Garmin 106. I keep waiting for this baby to pull back to a decent price, but it just won't. Trading at an all-time high now, but decreasing volume says that GRMN may be ready for a breather. Pupule says: Worth waiting for.
Research in Motion 83. Two days of declines were met with today's fractional gain (so far). trading above its 13-day MA. Pupule says: Wait.
Baidu 219. Uh-uh. Today's miniscule pullback in China's favorite search engine is on much lower volume (after two days of major upside volume.) BIDU is a trader's fantasy, an investor's temptation. Pupule says: Wait. Blue Nile 79. Insider selling has pissed off some longs and fed the bears. Here, NILE is well below its 13-day MA and near its 50-day MA. After significant volume on two down days (Tuesday and yesterday), today's minor gains come on mediocre volume. I'm not convinced the selloff is done, but I wouldn't be shy either. Pupule says: Buy.
Chipotle Mexican Grill 104. CMG is pulling back, but the heights here are still dizzying. Pupule says: Wait.
CNOOC Ltd. 122. For so long, CEO was available at true bargain prices. From August 10 to 22, the stock traded below its 13-day MA, and on several of those days, was below its 50-day MA. Now it's just too expensive even without today's 2.5% gain. Pupule says: Wait.
Flowserve 71. FLS is trading below its 50-day SMA, still a decent price. Pupule says: Not a bargain, but the price is right.
Google 523. GOOG is down more than 4 bucks (less than 1%) so far today, but the gains of the two previous days leave the stock above all moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.
Nintendo 55. Today, NTDOY.PK is trading up at about 58, which leaves the stock right at its 13-day moving averages. Yesterday's price was better, of course. Pupule says: Buy small, if anything.
Potash 89. Pricey here. POT hasn't been a bargain since August 21. Pupule says: Wait.
Under Armor 63. Short interest in UA was 50% just one month ago, but is down to "only" 32%. Today's 2.1% pullback brings the stock below its 13-day moving averages. Pupule says: Buy cautiously, not in bulk.
Today's best buys
Tuesday, September 4, 2007
NILE singing the blues today
The Nasdaq is up 1.1% (29 points) and Blue Nile is sinking. How does this happen? Well...
1. Co chairman sold 180,000 shares of NILE at $83.86
2. No other negative news, with the exception of Brian Bolan's call for NILE longs to sell while the stock price is lofty and far above basic valuations, as he explained today.
Seeking Alpha: Blue Nile's Soaring Stock Is Opportunity To Sell
Is Bolan right? As he says openly in the post, one of the analysts that wasn't invited to be in on NILE's Q2 conference call. Is he a little bitter? Possibly, but his breakdown of the numbers is tough to argue against. Maybe he's right. Maybe NILE is really worth no more than $70.
So why is it that Zales and Tiffany's are so slow to enter the online market for diamonds and jewelry? Aren't the profit margins insanely attractive?
On the chart, today's 4.7% pullback brings the stock below 13-day EMA and SMA. I'm wary of a buy here, but I'm watching closely. This is a fickle stock and nowhere near its recent high of 98.
1. Co chairman sold 180,000 shares of NILE at $83.86
2. No other negative news, with the exception of Brian Bolan's call for NILE longs to sell while the stock price is lofty and far above basic valuations, as he explained today.
Seeking Alpha: Blue Nile's Soaring Stock Is Opportunity To Sell
Is Bolan right? As he says openly in the post, one of the analysts that wasn't invited to be in on NILE's Q2 conference call. Is he a little bitter? Possibly, but his breakdown of the numbers is tough to argue against. Maybe he's right. Maybe NILE is really worth no more than $70.
So why is it that Zales and Tiffany's are so slow to enter the online market for diamonds and jewelry? Aren't the profit margins insanely attractive?
On the chart, today's 4.7% pullback brings the stock below 13-day EMA and SMA. I'm wary of a buy here, but I'm watching closely. This is a fickle stock and nowhere near its recent high of 98.
Monday, August 27, 2007
Rowing the magnificent Blue Nile
Blue Nile is exquisitely sexy, no question, and the fact that NILE is trading well below its recent Q2 earnings blowout high of $98 makes the stock tempting here.
But there's reason to believe the stock will stay put for now, perhaps until Q3 earnings are out. Brian on Howard Lindzon's blog explains the technicals. Even with great fundamentals and growth, the Amazon of the diamond industry is worth waiting for, and not much more right now.
But there's reason to believe the stock will stay put for now, perhaps until Q3 earnings are out. Brian on Howard Lindzon's blog explains the technicals. Even with great fundamentals and growth, the Amazon of the diamond industry is worth waiting for, and not much more right now.
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
Discipline is our friend, not foe
I keep telling myself this as my favorite stocks propel out of orbit and into the stratosphere. Keep the discipline. Don't chase. Never chase.
Sure, paying too high a price for a great stock often works out in the long run. But smart shopping is never a bad thing. A great company watches every penny and isn't afraid to spend those pennies — at the right price — if sustainable growth is realistic. Same goes for me. I hope so, anyway.
Guess which stock I bought a little of today?
AAPL $133. This was a steal until yesterday. Now, it's trading above its 13- and 50-day moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.
AMZN 78. Also trading above its moving averages, slow to move (as was Apple) at first when the market bounced. Pupule says: Wait.
CROX 58. My beloved Crocs, which I wear when not sleeping, and even then, my feet would not complain if I did. No, Crocs pulled back a bit today (but is now in green territory in after-hours trading) and is still out of its moving averages. That's what happens with a huge, 30% gain off of last week's rock-bottom lows. Closed at $58, but due for a dip. Pupule says: Wait.
GRMN 101. As tempting as it is to jump in when the stock is down a buck, the stock is still way above its moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.
RIMM 81. And now trading above 82 in AH. The problem is that RIMM did a juggernaut move like CROX and now has to take a breather. Tempting, just like CROX and GRMN — all three raised guidance after Q2 earnings — but still best served with patience. Pupule says: Wait.
So, with all of my A grade stocks unbuyable for disciplined hands, what to do? Shop a little more, that's what.
BIDU 204. Traded at 161 four sessions ago. What a difference one week makes. Drifting high above moving averages here. Pupule says: Wait.
CEO 110. Was such a strong buy yesterday and had been since Thursday when the stock dropped to 92. At 110, CEO is now in its 13- and 50-day averages, but the bargain price is gone for now. Pupule says: Buy.
CMG 102. Stock is lagging the other A and A- picks since Thursday. Trading at its 13-day moving averages. Pupule says: Buy.
FLS 69. Great earnings but bad timing. Good for discount shoppers. Flowserve is still below its 13- and 50-day moving averages here. Pupule says: Strong buy.
GOOG 512. Nice, steady climb since Thursday, trading within its 13- and 50-day MA. Well off its all-time high of 558. So the Co spent more in Q2 to hire quality employees. Does that make Google less of a great company or just intelligent about how to best grow the country in burgeoning monlithic economies like, say, China? Pupule says: Strong buy.
NILE 81. Was slow to move when the market rebounded, but is picking up speed now. Stock trading in its 13-day MA, worth waiting for, but not a bad price here. Pupule says: Buy.
NTDOY.PK 55. Stock has struggled more than most in the past week because of weakness in the Nikkei. I scooped up a few shares here, mostly for my nephew (monthly stock "drip" from his uncle). Stock now trading between its 13- and 50-day MA. Stock closed at 55.75, 7.3% above its low of last week. That's some serious lagging compared to RIMM and CROX. Pupule says: Buy.
UA 68. After a triumphant explosion, the stock is cooling quickly and pulled back today while the rest of Nasdaq gained 31 points. Still trading above its moving averages, but I'm watching closely for a healthy entry point. Pupule says: Wait.
Sure, paying too high a price for a great stock often works out in the long run. But smart shopping is never a bad thing. A great company watches every penny and isn't afraid to spend those pennies — at the right price — if sustainable growth is realistic. Same goes for me. I hope so, anyway.
Guess which stock I bought a little of today?
AAPL $133. This was a steal until yesterday. Now, it's trading above its 13- and 50-day moving averages. Pupule says: Wait. AMZN 78. Also trading above its moving averages, slow to move (as was Apple) at first when the market bounced. Pupule says: Wait.
CROX 58. My beloved Crocs, which I wear when not sleeping, and even then, my feet would not complain if I did. No, Crocs pulled back a bit today (but is now in green territory in after-hours trading) and is still out of its moving averages. That's what happens with a huge, 30% gain off of last week's rock-bottom lows. Closed at $58, but due for a dip. Pupule says: Wait.
GRMN 101. As tempting as it is to jump in when the stock is down a buck, the stock is still way above its moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.
RIMM 81. And now trading above 82 in AH. The problem is that RIMM did a juggernaut move like CROX and now has to take a breather. Tempting, just like CROX and GRMN — all three raised guidance after Q2 earnings — but still best served with patience. Pupule says: Wait.
So, with all of my A grade stocks unbuyable for disciplined hands, what to do? Shop a little more, that's what.
BIDU 204. Traded at 161 four sessions ago. What a difference one week makes. Drifting high above moving averages here. Pupule says: Wait. CEO 110. Was such a strong buy yesterday and had been since Thursday when the stock dropped to 92. At 110, CEO is now in its 13- and 50-day averages, but the bargain price is gone for now. Pupule says: Buy.
CMG 102. Stock is lagging the other A and A- picks since Thursday. Trading at its 13-day moving averages. Pupule says: Buy.
FLS 69. Great earnings but bad timing. Good for discount shoppers. Flowserve is still below its 13- and 50-day moving averages here. Pupule says: Strong buy.
GOOG 512. Nice, steady climb since Thursday, trading within its 13- and 50-day MA. Well off its all-time high of 558. So the Co spent more in Q2 to hire quality employees. Does that make Google less of a great company or just intelligent about how to best grow the country in burgeoning monlithic economies like, say, China? Pupule says: Strong buy.
NILE 81. Was slow to move when the market rebounded, but is picking up speed now. Stock trading in its 13-day MA, worth waiting for, but not a bad price here. Pupule says: Buy.
NTDOY.PK 55. Stock has struggled more than most in the past week because of weakness in the Nikkei. I scooped up a few shares here, mostly for my nephew (monthly stock "drip" from his uncle). Stock now trading between its 13- and 50-day MA. Stock closed at 55.75, 7.3% above its low of last week. That's some serious lagging compared to RIMM and CROX. Pupule says: Buy.
UA 68. After a triumphant explosion, the stock is cooling quickly and pulled back today while the rest of Nasdaq gained 31 points. Still trading above its moving averages, but I'm watching closely for a healthy entry point. Pupule says: Wait.
Monday, August 20, 2007
Growth kings rally, but bargains still there
If we've seen the bottom of bottoms, the growth stocks have already offered us their best at bargain prices. It kinda kills me, but then again, it's my own fault that there was little dry powder available for me to fire up.
Here's an updated look at my A and A- grade stock picks and how they've done since hitting last week's lows.
AAPL 122, low 111, up 9%
The stock is lagging behind the other A graders but there's no point in complaining about 9% up. At 122, AAPL is trading below its 1-year, 13- and 50-day moving averages, just punished by the big boys who took their profits and ran. The issue here now is, no matter how well AAPL executes, will the big boys continue to use and abuse the stock for their shortcomings in other areas like subprime mortgages? I think they will, but only after another huge Apple-icious run. Pupule says: Strong buy.
AMZN 74, low 70, up 5.7%. Slow to move, and the humongous PEG (over 3.0) is certainly a reason for buyers to be cautious. Jeff Bezos has blown out the estimates for two quarters in a row, but at 74, the stock is trading just a tiny bit above its pre-Q2 earnings price. Stock is trading within its 13- and 50-day moving averages. Pupule says: Buy.
CROX 56, low 44, up 21%
The guys who have compained in recent weeks, even before last week's selloff, have no right to bitch. "Waah, why is CROX only up 1 buck today?" When CROX hit $60 after destroying bears and shorts with a Q2 report with raised guidance, there was still whining. Yep, up 50% in three months and a few people couldn't stop grumbling. Well, here were are, post-mortage massacre, and CROX is up 21% from its low. Before today, the stock was well within its 13- and 50-day moving averages. Today, however, buyers were stampeding back in and the stock was up more than 9%. The stock is above its moving averages now. That was quick. Pupule says: Wait.
GRMN 97, low 86, up 12.7%
A beautiful company and a beautiful stock. Raised guidance, then got crushed by the selloff. The smart buyers got their Garmin below 90. The rest of us who didn't have dry powder cried a river. At 97, GRMN is trading at the top of its moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.
RIMM 235, low 184, up 27.7%
If you're a genius, you grabbed all the RIMM you could below 190. Today's move, particularly in the final hour, was dizzying. During that two-day period last week when all hell broke loose in the mortgage mess, RIMM was below its 13- and 50-day moving averages. Now? It's blasted off, far above its moving averages. It'll come back down, but probably not in our lifetimes. Pupule says: Wait.
BIDU 187, low 161, up 16.1%
Even with today's nice bump up, the stock is trading within its moving averages. Volume today was relatively low, which means the stock could be cheaper tomorrow. Pupule says: Buy.
CEO 104, low 92, up 13%
My favorite oil and natural gas stock is rallying off its lows. At one point, CEO touched its 200-day moving average. Spooky unless you were smart enough to scoop up more shares. At 104, with a P/E of 11, CEO is still trading below its 13- and 50-day moving averages. Oil prices are fluctuating, but China's demand for oil and nat gas will not cease for a long time. Pupule says: Strong buy.
CMG 101, low 92, up 9.7%
Chipotle hasn't moved up big, but the blowout Q2 earnings will continue to steady the ship. The stock is trading at its 13-day moving averages, well above the 50-day MA. Pupule says: Wait.
FLS 68, low 62, up 9.6%
Despite blowout earnings, Flowserve continues to hover between its 13- and 50-day moving averages. Pupule says: Buy.
GOOG 497, low 480, up 3.5%
Stock continues to be pummeled, down fractionally today. At 497, trading between its 13- and 50-day averages. I like what Google is doing in China. This team will not be stopped. Pupule says: Buy.
NILE 78, low 71, up 9.8%
Still well below its all-time high of 98. Stock was finally reviving today, up more than $3. Trading between its 13- and 50-day moving averages. Pupule says: Buy.
NTDOY.PK 52, low 51.95, no gain
The stock has languished along with the rest of the Nikkei. When the market in Tokyo settles down, the stock will be poised for another breakout. Wii and DS sales are too strong. Stock now touching its 50-day moving averages, well below its 13-day MA. Pupule says: Strong buy.
UA 64, low 54, up 18.5%
Short interest is still high, and though the stock is off its all-time highs after the great earnings report (and raised guidance), it is trading above its moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.
Here's an updated look at my A and A- grade stock picks and how they've done since hitting last week's lows.
AAPL 122, low 111, up 9%The stock is lagging behind the other A graders but there's no point in complaining about 9% up. At 122, AAPL is trading below its 1-year, 13- and 50-day moving averages, just punished by the big boys who took their profits and ran. The issue here now is, no matter how well AAPL executes, will the big boys continue to use and abuse the stock for their shortcomings in other areas like subprime mortgages? I think they will, but only after another huge Apple-icious run. Pupule says: Strong buy.
AMZN 74, low 70, up 5.7%. Slow to move, and the humongous PEG (over 3.0) is certainly a reason for buyers to be cautious. Jeff Bezos has blown out the estimates for two quarters in a row, but at 74, the stock is trading just a tiny bit above its pre-Q2 earnings price. Stock is trading within its 13- and 50-day moving averages. Pupule says: Buy.
CROX 56, low 44, up 21%
The guys who have compained in recent weeks, even before last week's selloff, have no right to bitch. "Waah, why is CROX only up 1 buck today?" When CROX hit $60 after destroying bears and shorts with a Q2 report with raised guidance, there was still whining. Yep, up 50% in three months and a few people couldn't stop grumbling. Well, here were are, post-mortage massacre, and CROX is up 21% from its low. Before today, the stock was well within its 13- and 50-day moving averages. Today, however, buyers were stampeding back in and the stock was up more than 9%. The stock is above its moving averages now. That was quick. Pupule says: Wait.
GRMN 97, low 86, up 12.7%
A beautiful company and a beautiful stock. Raised guidance, then got crushed by the selloff. The smart buyers got their Garmin below 90. The rest of us who didn't have dry powder cried a river. At 97, GRMN is trading at the top of its moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.
RIMM 235, low 184, up 27.7%
If you're a genius, you grabbed all the RIMM you could below 190. Today's move, particularly in the final hour, was dizzying. During that two-day period last week when all hell broke loose in the mortgage mess, RIMM was below its 13- and 50-day moving averages. Now? It's blasted off, far above its moving averages. It'll come back down, but probably not in our lifetimes. Pupule says: Wait.
BIDU 187, low 161, up 16.1%Even with today's nice bump up, the stock is trading within its moving averages. Volume today was relatively low, which means the stock could be cheaper tomorrow. Pupule says: Buy.
CEO 104, low 92, up 13%
My favorite oil and natural gas stock is rallying off its lows. At one point, CEO touched its 200-day moving average. Spooky unless you were smart enough to scoop up more shares. At 104, with a P/E of 11, CEO is still trading below its 13- and 50-day moving averages. Oil prices are fluctuating, but China's demand for oil and nat gas will not cease for a long time. Pupule says: Strong buy.
CMG 101, low 92, up 9.7%
Chipotle hasn't moved up big, but the blowout Q2 earnings will continue to steady the ship. The stock is trading at its 13-day moving averages, well above the 50-day MA. Pupule says: Wait.
FLS 68, low 62, up 9.6%
Despite blowout earnings, Flowserve continues to hover between its 13- and 50-day moving averages. Pupule says: Buy.
GOOG 497, low 480, up 3.5%
Stock continues to be pummeled, down fractionally today. At 497, trading between its 13- and 50-day averages. I like what Google is doing in China. This team will not be stopped. Pupule says: Buy.
NILE 78, low 71, up 9.8%
Still well below its all-time high of 98. Stock was finally reviving today, up more than $3. Trading between its 13- and 50-day moving averages. Pupule says: Buy.
NTDOY.PK 52, low 51.95, no gain
The stock has languished along with the rest of the Nikkei. When the market in Tokyo settles down, the stock will be poised for another breakout. Wii and DS sales are too strong. Stock now touching its 50-day moving averages, well below its 13-day MA. Pupule says: Strong buy.
UA 64, low 54, up 18.5%
Short interest is still high, and though the stock is off its all-time highs after the great earnings report (and raised guidance), it is trading above its moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.
Friday, August 17, 2007
The wise prosper in the Wild West
Cna you imagine what it's like to wake up with 2 hours left in the market most mornings? And then to see nothing but blood all over your screen?
Ah, green is a great color. It's not surprising today, of course, not with the action we saw yesterday. I went ahead and started a list of my A and A- grade picks to see how they all fared coming off their lows of yesterday (August 16).
AAPL 121 • low 111 • up 9%
AMZN 74 • low 70 • up 6.5%
CROX 50 • low 44 • up 15.1%
GRMN 93 • low 86 • up 7.6%
RIMM 211 • low 184 • up 14.3%
I'm still trying to lift my jaw off the floor. I'm sure there are a few other amateurs like me who didn't have the dry powder to jump in yesterday even though every fiber in our bodies said "GO!" A lesson well learned about market tops. No matter how great the company, and how impressive the earnings, every market has its top. Just like a cinder-cone volcano. It has to blow. Just takes a tiny spark, whether it's a mortgage massacre or anything else.
Seeing Crocs and Under Armor rip to 15% gains off yesterday's lows is just incredible, but not shocking.
BIDU 177 • low 161 • up 10%
CEO 101 • low 92 • up 10%
CMG 99 • low 92 • up 8.5%
FLS 66 • low 62 • up 6.7%
GOOG 498 • low 480 • up 3.6%
NILE 74 • low 71 • up 5.2%
NTDOY.PK, ask 53.10, bid 53.25 • low 51.95 • up 2.2%
UA 63 • low 54.50 • up 15.8%
I am surprised a bit that Blue Nile is slow to move with them, but maybe there are just more doubters now than there were one or two weeks ago when the stock nearly hit 100. The parallel between NILE and AMZN isn't totally off. When Amazon first rolled out, bears swore that it would be crushed by Barnes & Noble and Borders. Same is true of Blue Nile with Tiffany's and Zale, who could enter the online battle at any time. But they won't, not until NILE has continued to establish its territory in cyberspace.
The only other factor holding Blue Nile back is insider selling, including a sale of more than 320,000 shares by its CEO. Same pattern by CROX execs: blowout quarters, reward follows. Investors get their gains, too, even as shorts cry foul.
NILE is one of the very few stocks trading down for the day, minus 1.6% to 73.84. Talk about a steal.
Anyway, to those of you who stayed dry yesterday and today and loaded up the truck, congratulations. Think I'll go scrape some quarters off the floor of my car to get more Nintendo, which is still at a huge discount after Tokyo followed the Dow's selloff yesterday.
Ah, green is a great color. It's not surprising today, of course, not with the action we saw yesterday. I went ahead and started a list of my A and A- grade picks to see how they all fared coming off their lows of yesterday (August 16).
AAPL 121 • low 111 • up 9%AMZN 74 • low 70 • up 6.5%
CROX 50 • low 44 • up 15.1%
GRMN 93 • low 86 • up 7.6%
RIMM 211 • low 184 • up 14.3%
I'm still trying to lift my jaw off the floor. I'm sure there are a few other amateurs like me who didn't have the dry powder to jump in yesterday even though every fiber in our bodies said "GO!" A lesson well learned about market tops. No matter how great the company, and how impressive the earnings, every market has its top. Just like a cinder-cone volcano. It has to blow. Just takes a tiny spark, whether it's a mortgage massacre or anything else.
Seeing Crocs and Under Armor rip to 15% gains off yesterday's lows is just incredible, but not shocking.
BIDU 177 • low 161 • up 10%CEO 101 • low 92 • up 10%
CMG 99 • low 92 • up 8.5%
FLS 66 • low 62 • up 6.7%
GOOG 498 • low 480 • up 3.6%
NILE 74 • low 71 • up 5.2%
NTDOY.PK, ask 53.10, bid 53.25 • low 51.95 • up 2.2%
UA 63 • low 54.50 • up 15.8%
I am surprised a bit that Blue Nile is slow to move with them, but maybe there are just more doubters now than there were one or two weeks ago when the stock nearly hit 100. The parallel between NILE and AMZN isn't totally off. When Amazon first rolled out, bears swore that it would be crushed by Barnes & Noble and Borders. Same is true of Blue Nile with Tiffany's and Zale, who could enter the online battle at any time. But they won't, not until NILE has continued to establish its territory in cyberspace.
The only other factor holding Blue Nile back is insider selling, including a sale of more than 320,000 shares by its CEO. Same pattern by CROX execs: blowout quarters, reward follows. Investors get their gains, too, even as shorts cry foul.
NILE is one of the very few stocks trading down for the day, minus 1.6% to 73.84. Talk about a steal.
Anyway, to those of you who stayed dry yesterday and today and loaded up the truck, congratulations. Think I'll go scrape some quarters off the floor of my car to get more Nintendo, which is still at a huge discount after Tokyo followed the Dow's selloff yesterday.
Friday, August 10, 2007
Shopping List: Grade A-
Barf bag sales are slowing thanks to Big Ben's infusion of liquidity. Turbulence still ahead, but the flight is stabilizing. Here's a look at the A- shopping list.
BIDU, low 185, now 193. Still in the red, just barely, for the day. Pupule says: Buy.
CEO, low 108, now 110. The other day I lamented about missing a chance to buy at 109. This is practically the same. Pupule says: Buy.
CMG, low 100, now 101. Approaching its moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.
FLS, low 72, now 72. Down from an open of 76 despite crushing Q2 estimates yesterday. Trading at the top of its moving averages. Sale price won't last long. Pupule says: Buy.
GOOG, low 505, now 515. Pupule says: Buy.
NILE, low 84, now 86. Hit a high of 98 after Q2 earnings, so this price is a major discount for Blue Nile lovers. Stock is just barely touching the top of its moving averages. Tough call, probably a buy only for NILE devotees. Pupule says: Wait.
NTDOY.PK, ask 54.75, bid 55. Dipping below some of its moving averages. I like this price, definitely. Pupule says: Buy.
UA, low 63, now 66. UA hit a high of 73 yesterday despite the shaky market. Short interest is 50% and yet to fully kick in, I think. Tough call. The blowout earnings and high short interest make it tough for the stock to pull back significantly. A believer will buy, but the stock is still above its moving averages. Pupule says: Wait.
Pupule Paul is long BIDU, NTDOY.PK and UA.
Thursday, August 9, 2007
Munarritz: NILE is a 'nervous hold'
My favorite Motley Fool writer — OK, the only MF writer I like — shares his perspective about Blue Nile. Rick Munarritz admits he was wrong about NILE, but wouldn't be buying or selling here.
See Mac Greer's video interview with Munarritz. Good conversation includes issues about potential competition in the online jewelry field.
NILE is down 6% to $89 with 50 minutes left in today's market. Significant haircut from yesterday's mid-day high of $98.50, but still well above its moving averages. I'll be waiting for some consolidation.
Pupule Paul has no position in NILE.
See Mac Greer's video interview with Munarritz. Good conversation includes issues about potential competition in the online jewelry field. NILE is down 6% to $89 with 50 minutes left in today's market. Significant haircut from yesterday's mid-day high of $98.50, but still well above its moving averages. I'll be waiting for some consolidation.
Pupule Paul has no position in NILE.
Wednesday, August 8, 2007
FWLT swings and misses, but Nasdaq being green
I passed on FWLT. A good pass. Being lights-out asleep through pre-market didn't hurt. Didn't get in, didn't know until later that Foster Wheeler missed estimates due to a big one-time transaction.
FWLT wasn't horribly punished as investors absorbed the data and gave the Co beneift of the doubt. Trading at $101 now after briefly dipping to $99.51. My watch list of nearly 30 stocks is almost all green with the Nasdaq up 1.6% (42 points). I did something different this morning, watching the list based on the losers for the day at the top. Why? Bargain hunting.
I won't be shopping for FWLT anytime soon, not when Amazon continues to consolidate in the high 70s and Apple keeps churing at 134. I regret not getting more Nintendo in the mid-50s; it's now trading above 60.
Yingli Green Energy, which I shunned as the market punished alternative energy last week, has rallied again. After dipping into the 14s last week, YGE is trading up 7.7% today to $16.62. The sector has rebounded with the market. Even First Solar is up to $109.
But the stock that grips me right now is Blue Nile (NILE). It sold off at the open following yesterday's remarkable gain. NILE sat at 92-93 for a little while, then zoomed up as stocks with an 11-million share float do. Now trading above $96, well above its moving averages.
It's tough to watch with discipline. Garmin had a similar earnings boost and upward guidance, and the stock never sold off with conviction. Same could happen with NILE.
Another tough pass is CEO, which was a buy at $112, but zoomed to $117 this morning on only 16,700 shares traded.
Yet, the real buy, if any, is Apple, which is well within its moving averages at $134.
The easy pass is LULU, which is up 4.2% to $37.78. Just don't trust those brand-new IPOs. It might take another few weeks, but I'd rather have LULU at $25.
Pupule Paul is long AAPL and NTDOY.PK.
FWLT wasn't horribly punished as investors absorbed the data and gave the Co beneift of the doubt. Trading at $101 now after briefly dipping to $99.51. My watch list of nearly 30 stocks is almost all green with the Nasdaq up 1.6% (42 points). I did something different this morning, watching the list based on the losers for the day at the top. Why? Bargain hunting.
I won't be shopping for FWLT anytime soon, not when Amazon continues to consolidate in the high 70s and Apple keeps churing at 134. I regret not getting more Nintendo in the mid-50s; it's now trading above 60.
Yingli Green Energy, which I shunned as the market punished alternative energy last week, has rallied again. After dipping into the 14s last week, YGE is trading up 7.7% today to $16.62. The sector has rebounded with the market. Even First Solar is up to $109.
But the stock that grips me right now is Blue Nile (NILE). It sold off at the open following yesterday's remarkable gain. NILE sat at 92-93 for a little while, then zoomed up as stocks with an 11-million share float do. Now trading above $96, well above its moving averages.
It's tough to watch with discipline. Garmin had a similar earnings boost and upward guidance, and the stock never sold off with conviction. Same could happen with NILE.
Another tough pass is CEO, which was a buy at $112, but zoomed to $117 this morning on only 16,700 shares traded.
Yet, the real buy, if any, is Apple, which is well within its moving averages at $134.
The easy pass is LULU, which is up 4.2% to $37.78. Just don't trust those brand-new IPOs. It might take another few weeks, but I'd rather have LULU at $25.
Pupule Paul is long AAPL and NTDOY.PK.
Tuesday, August 7, 2007
Blue Nile on fire
No big surprise here. Blue Nile (NILE) blows out estimates and raises guidance; I add the stock to my lists for the first time as a B+ stock. Then I change my mind and recognize the Co for what it is: on the cusp of greatness.So it's an A- pick. The reasons? Many. One of the best facets of this Co is its presence online and lack of presence as a bricks-and-mortar entity. They can leave that burdensome encumbrance to Zales and Tiffany's.
Kevin Stecyk's piece on NILE via Seeking Alpha is a solid summary of where the young Co stands today. Although I've taken a look at the Co's numbers, Kevin's bullet points are as good a starting place as any for a NILE newbie like me: • Net sales of $72.1 million, an increase of 26.7% over the second quarter of 2006;
• Gross profit grew by 32% and operating income grew by 39.8%, both were the highest that Blue Nile posted as a public company;
• Company claims to extend leadership position in online diamond and jewelry retailing as evidenced by its net income of $3.8 million and net income of $0.23 per share, representing an EPS growth of 28%;
• In Q2, total orders increased 27.2% as compared to a year ago;
• Average selling price per order was $1,630 in the second quarter;
• Website traffic growth was the highest since mid-2004;
• All retail channels—search, portals, partners, and email—were all very strong; and
• Sales and merchandise priced above $25,000 grew by 51%. One exceptional example was a single sale above $1.5 million from a repeat Blue Nile customer.
Certainly, I'll be doing a lot more reading about this intriguing company. Another quarter or two of great earnings could push NILE into A territory.
In the meantime, I'll be looking for a solid entry point, too.
Pupule Paul has no position in NILE.
Diamonds are an investor's best friend at NILE
A few years ago, when I was between jobs, one of the affiliate sponsors that showed up on the radar for my Honda Report site was Blue Nile.
The affiliate sponsor thing was something I tried briefly, but didn't follow up on once I got back into a full-time job. But I never forgot some of those ads. Blue Nile's concept — selling jewelry over the internet — seemed preposterous. Where's the security? I liked the marketing, though.
Fast forward to August 7. Today. An outrageously successful second quarter, plus a nice appearance on yesterday's Fast Money proved positive, for sure. Every guy on FM gave Blue Nile (NILE) a strong thumb's up. But it was the report that gave the stock a 16% boost today.
In fact, while NILE closed at $82 yesterday, by the opening bell, it was down to $78.74. Buyers fought for scant shares. The float is a megaer 11 million shares. The demand pushed the stock to $96.05 by mid-day before NILE closed at $95.17, an all-time high. Quite insane for a stock that was $40 in mid-March.
NILE is a classic momentum stock with great fundamentals. As in zero debt. Or maybe the is the 21st century fundamentally strong stock that happens to have great momo. I wish I hadn't missed this mover, which reminds me a tad bit of Garmin's move last week. I passed on GRMN on the eve of earnings at $83. The stock hit $100 earlier today.
Is NILE still a buy at a P/E of 115 and forward P/E of 85? Depends on how much it can accelerate growth. In Q1, year-over-year revenue growth and earnings growth were each 34%.
More recently, Shortsqueeze.com listed short interest in NILE at a whopping 24%, which would explain part of today's massive move.
I wonder how NILE delivers its product (diamonds) with so much security. And if the U.S. economy is slowing, as all indicators show, how robust are NILE sales abroad?
As for competition, Tiffany's and Zale are hardly prepared to challenge Blue Nile in cyberspace. And therein lies the rub. Blue Nile's margins are substantial because of its business model — no bricks and mortar. Sounds like a perfect fit for my portfolio. Maybe not at $95, but somewhere. This huge runup of 30 percent in the last four sessions means the stock is due for a pullback sooner or later. Kinda like Garmin, which never really has found a new floor since blasting off after the Q2 report.
When the stock rests, I may be hunting for an entry point.
The affiliate sponsor thing was something I tried briefly, but didn't follow up on once I got back into a full-time job. But I never forgot some of those ads. Blue Nile's concept — selling jewelry over the internet — seemed preposterous. Where's the security? I liked the marketing, though.
Fast forward to August 7. Today. An outrageously successful second quarter, plus a nice appearance on yesterday's Fast Money proved positive, for sure. Every guy on FM gave Blue Nile (NILE) a strong thumb's up. But it was the report that gave the stock a 16% boost today. In fact, while NILE closed at $82 yesterday, by the opening bell, it was down to $78.74. Buyers fought for scant shares. The float is a megaer 11 million shares. The demand pushed the stock to $96.05 by mid-day before NILE closed at $95.17, an all-time high. Quite insane for a stock that was $40 in mid-March.
NILE is a classic momentum stock with great fundamentals. As in zero debt. Or maybe the is the 21st century fundamentally strong stock that happens to have great momo. I wish I hadn't missed this mover, which reminds me a tad bit of Garmin's move last week. I passed on GRMN on the eve of earnings at $83. The stock hit $100 earlier today.
Is NILE still a buy at a P/E of 115 and forward P/E of 85? Depends on how much it can accelerate growth. In Q1, year-over-year revenue growth and earnings growth were each 34%. More recently, Shortsqueeze.com listed short interest in NILE at a whopping 24%, which would explain part of today's massive move.
I wonder how NILE delivers its product (diamonds) with so much security. And if the U.S. economy is slowing, as all indicators show, how robust are NILE sales abroad?
As for competition, Tiffany's and Zale are hardly prepared to challenge Blue Nile in cyberspace. And therein lies the rub. Blue Nile's margins are substantial because of its business model — no bricks and mortar. Sounds like a perfect fit for my portfolio. Maybe not at $95, but somewhere. This huge runup of 30 percent in the last four sessions means the stock is due for a pullback sooner or later. Kinda like Garmin, which never really has found a new floor since blasting off after the Q2 report.
When the stock rests, I may be hunting for an entry point.
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