Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Tuesday Night Library

2:30 pm (Hawaii) A feature by the New York Times about gold and silver coins. I admit I feel a little geeky about those upcoming Utah gold (and silver?) coins. The new stuff might look something like the photo below. It would be a fascinating process to follow.

NY Times: Utah law makes coins worth their weight in gold (or silver) (May 30 2011)
Turd Ferguson: May Wrap (May 31 2011)
ETF Daily News: Calling the end of the commodity bull market? (Mar 31 2011)

It's called a Sweet Spot

11:58 am (Hawaii) Right now, Extorre Gold Mines is in a sweet spot. They're a young company, an offshoot, actually, of a larger mining corporation. They mine only in Argentina, but the lode is motherlicious. They have (seemingly) transparent leadership and communication, reporting the news of each new minute in a smooth, aesthetically pleasing stream of video that hits the internet every two weeks or so.

Not coincidentally, perhaps, a new XG video hit the air yesterday, and today, more news about the busy new mine (Cerro Moro) was released. (This vein was first reported last year.) On a day when Spot Gold was flat to lower, XG ranged higher to 12.00 before pulling back on a near-perfect 50% retrace. 50% is not an ideal retrace; the classic 38.2% retrace (Fibonacci) would be preferred, but in a sector that was somewhat flat, 50 is acceptable. I got out and I'll look for another entry point. 11.30 or so would've been sufficient, and XG closed at 11.42. If gold miners flatten out, I'll be waiting for another opportunity at a lower price. More than anything else, miners are about price. They don't fluctuate forever upward or lower. It's a matter of managing emotion and sticking hard to price points, much like buying physical.

Here's the man, Yale Simpson, talking about Extorre Gold Mines.

Bad credit, bad hair and Europe?

10:17 am (Hawaii) So what does this half-assed solution to the Greek debt crisis mean? How did it spur the indices higher through the closing bell? Was it all just AAPL?

How much of it was end-of-month window dressing? How many of those same fund bosses sell their AAPL and other assorted non-essentials tomorrow before the peon premarket?

A meltdown in Greece, then Portugal, then Spain, France, UK ... wouldn't all of this have left gold and silver alone to run higher and higher? Are we really that much closer to the stack-your-cans-of-sardines-and-Spam days?

One thing is clear. The daily charts show many, many silver plays with fairly bullish candlestick charts. I don't think it's an all-clear that silver shoots up vertically from here, but it's something to watch.

Big Apple

A major gap open and strong finish on increased volume. Under normal conditions, what's not to like, right? But even AAPL can't withstand the unnatural currents of the global market.

Crude activity

What's good for crude oil is good for the market? Not necessarily, but Sensei Turd Ferguson has been forecasting a crude move to the upside.

Silver hammers

AGQ, AG, EXK, SLV all have hammer candles that are somewhat bullish. It's not enough for me to jump in head first, so I'm still 90% cash. But it's getting attractive.

In an afternoon update, Turd pointed to 37.50 as an area of "stout support", with a re-test of 39.50 soon. I suppose I'm selfish wanting prices below 35 to buy physical.

Gold isn't looking as interesting, which is expected after last week's move (and the sputter action of silver). I don't know what to make of XG's candle today except that it finished with some momentum. An oddity.

The gold junior miners ETF looks nice, but GLD looks tired. It might be time for some consolidation. I'm still positive on gold in general, still holding a small piece of DGP, which also looks tired here.

Rare earths are foreign to me, but MCP looks full of vigor here.

If you look hard enough, the palladium ETF chart looks a little bit like XG. Bullish, but something's not quite right.

Copper ETF looks positive, but is all the news out of China already baked in? Copper was a good play a week ago when China's growth turned up strong, but this is a tightrope here. Long term, I wouldn't fear this trade, but I can't hold anything that long in this market.

I'm sticking to my gut for now and staying mostly out. AAPL will be interesting if it holds its ground, but much of that depends on the chaos in the Euro zone and, well, just about everywhere else.

SGS is skeptical about PMs and noted earlier that if gold can't keep up, silver will be ravaged by the puppet masters.

A pullback in PMs would be par for the course. Gold, in particular, tends to pull back on any gains during the summer. It has the last two summers. I'd look to add more physical on discount prices as volume wanes and the lulls take over.

Rise and shine

9:36 am (Hawaii) Been in and out of sleep since early morning. When I did check my live charts, it seemed like something was wrong. Maybe my connection was off. Nothing moves this weakly, right? It does, actually, at least with XG, which has been locked around 11.35 for most of the day. In fact, both the slow stochastics and MACD look like one beach and one big, big wave early in the day ... followed by nothing by suds. Whitewash. Nothing surfable.

AGQ had more action and that's saying a lot since it opened higher, dripped down to 202 and then went back up to 206 ... that's usually enough action for 30 minutes in AGQ. But that's been the day so far.

In fact, with the news about Apple officially announcing the arrival of its iCloud, PLUS Steve Jobs being part of the presentation on (Monday) June 6, there may be a shift of some magnitiude this week for traders. PMs will still have their place in the pecking order, but AAPL's action today was significant, going from Friday's 337 close to 343 for most of today. The past couple of hours, AAPL has risen above 346 and is approaching 347 on heavier volume.

It's an "expensive" stock for some quick traders, but when AAPL gains steam, it's a phenomenal ride.

X marks the spot

3;57 am (Hawaii) I got in XG on Friday at 10.67 and out at 11.79 this morning. Might have gotten out sooner (and closer to 12.00), but this stomachache and my consequent preference to trade from bed got the better of me. Couldn't get the wireless to work for a few minutes. Not a bad profit ($550) for a small position. I don't know if the stomach ailment has anything to do with anxiety or what. But it's starting to go away, if that's a hint. Still have a small position in DGP with no expectations of a big move either way right now, but you never know.

From what I saw before the opening bell, silver and gold spot were ragged all up and down. Best to sit tight rather than get spooked out (or in) by the puppetmasters.

XG continues to market its good news so well. I admire that company and its smooth (slick?) delivery of news. But I'm glad I got out on the pop, which came on news about the new mine. XG already down to 11.28, still up 6%, but well off its high of 12%.

Monday, May 30, 2011

Salute to the men and women

5:30 pm (Hawaii) Been out and working through the day, but my mind and heart are on the brave men and women who protect our nation. Here's to you!

Quint Tatro, aka the Q Man, sees a possible technical breakdown coming for SLV. He says it could be a retest of recent lows.

Tatro: No Mo Pomo (May 30 2011)

Friday, May 27, 2011

Weekend library

3:06 pm (Hawaii) It's true that gold has been in summer doldrums the past two years, but Trader Dan Norcini notes that currency issues will likely keep gold price in an ascendant pattern.

Ever since Fed governor Bullard let the cat out of the bag and basically told the market that the Fed would not be withdrawing accommodative monetary policy until at least July 2012, the Dollar has been moving steadily lower. That keeps REAL INTEREST rate yields negative and has strengthened the conviction in many traders’ minds that such an environment is going to be the norm for at least another year. Gold LOVES those kinds of conditions and thus has moved steadily higher ever since Bullard’s comments.

Dan Norcini: Gold comments (May 27 2011)
Stephen Leeb: Silver should be $150 today (May 27 2011)
Jordan Roy-Byrne: Gold strengthens in real terms (May 27 2011)
David Skarica: Emerging markets on upswing (May 27 2011)

BrotherJohnF on Ted Butler

Bill Murphy of GATA (May 27 2011)

Endless Mountain's daily technical analysis of Spot Silver (May 27 2011)

Mike Krieger on the debt ceiling (May 27 2011)

Beautiful, indeed

2:38 pm (Hawaii) Recently, I was on the hunt for physical silver. I really wanted to just stack without paying a premium. But I came across the new minting of the America the Beautiful series by the US Mint. I was hooked. I didn't like the premium — $279 for a 5-oz coin — but Spot Silver was "only" $35/oz at the time and I talked myself into buying the Yellowstone National Park edition.

It arrived today and I feel like a coin nerd. It's huge. Beautiful. I took it out of the box, but not out of the plastic protection. I don't plan on buying more physical until spot drops below 36 again. But I'm glad I did it. It's just the beginning. Maybe I'll collect the series. Maybe not. It all depends on what I can afford, and I think I can't afford not to stack non-premium silver. It'll be good, though, to have easily recognizable, easily trustable physical like ATB and American Eagles.

eBay: ATB Yellowstone going for $350 (May 26 2011)

Conviction vs. fear

10:01 am (Hawaii) It's a matter of conviction here. Gyrations will come and go, but the last time I had near this much confidence in a stock or sector was AAPL a year or two ago. I held from 215 down to 190 with almost full confidence, and was rewarded later. (Sold at 257, far too early, but still...)

Re-entered XG (10.67) and DGP (48.96) before the close. I had some confidence in Spot Gold when the week started and I am more convinced now. Funny things can happen over a three-day weekend, but a rebound in the euro is not likely one. Not touching silver until premarket on Tuesday, at the earliest.

New positions are small. I'm 80% cash and ready for a pullback on Tuesday if it happens.

Entry points, not so hard. Managing exits, that's key. I am glad about getting more physical gold and silver a week ago. Need to balance the positive with the negative instead of dwelling on negative exits.

Gold smash

8:08 am (Hawaii) Gold breaks out. Silver holding its ground. What difference in little more than 24 hours. There were traders like me who got shaken out whether by stop-loss sell orders or plain fear. Then there are those who were long through the week come speed bump or avalanche. Also there were probably some who jumped in after yesterday's early-morning takedown and held overnight.

They were handsomely rewarded. Spot Gold is at 1536. Silver is at 37.80. All three indices are up fractionally. The US Dollar has barely above 75, hovering near its low of the day. I knew gold had a chance to have a big week, but I lacked the conviction to hold XG through yesterday. It's now at 10.65, or .17 above my sell point.

EXK opened at 10.00 and is still above 10 at 10.03. AGQ is holding ground above 200. In other words, instead of selling yesterday for a total loss of nearly $400, I would've been up right now roughly $800. That's the difference between conviction and fear from the long side. Somewhere, there's someone who is equally bearish but got spooked out and lost money from that direction.

Moving on: I hate to chase any precious metals going into a three-day weekend. The puppet masters will hammer any overseas gains. They could even turn spot prices back to previous levels, not just break-even over the weekend. But I have a hard time denying what Brother Turd wrote today: they'll likely whack any gains back to zero ... not necessarily below that. Would they actually bring margin requirement hikes to Spot Gold? Silver is establishing a base at 37.50-38.00. But it's gold that is through the roof now, with the Dollar sucking so badly and default issues in Europe. If the Chinese and Europeans buying up gold, is there really a whole lot the puppet masters can do to stop all the momentum?

I think not. But they will try. I guess I answered my own question.

Thursday, May 26, 2011

Dollar dollar, yo

11:35 pm (Hawaii) Trader Dan and Turd Ferguson chime in. Will you listen?

Dan Norcini: US dollar running into some selling (May 26 2011)
Turd: Expect silver to rally back toward 38 overnight (May 26 2011)

As the islands enter the midnight hour and those of you on the East Coast bring in the morning sun, I leave you with these feather-light thoughts.

1. President Obama has a sizable chunk of his net worth invested in US Treasurys.
2. China operates a gold futures instrument now and it trades 15 hours per day in Hong Kong.
3. A silver futures instrument will be available in Shanghai by the end of the year.
4. Since gold futures trading opened in Hong Kong on May 18, spot gold and silver are up, and had been up almost daily until Wednesday's overnight takedown by the CME Mafia.
5. China, India and many other emerging-market central banks and/or investors are still buying gold and silver in massive quantities.
6. China is also unloading the bulk of its US Treasurys.
7. The last time Europe faced default possibilities, investors flocked to gold.
8. The last time there was a 3-day holiday weekend, the CME Mafia torched Spot Silver price.
9. Nobody can honestly tell you what spot prices will be on Monday or Tuesday or next year.
10. The fundamentals of physical silver remain. Demand will outweigh supply.
11. If and when the laws change (overnight), how far can any government go to take precious metals from the populace?

This Ass knows

9:24 pm (Hawaii) He's known as the Golden Jackass, but don't be deceived. He is smart as heck and his latest piece covers just about every key issue of the US economy's slow, inevitable decline. I'm not a subscriber and don't plan to become one. But this free essay is a great read.

Here, he writes:
The new Shanghai silver futures contracts are most likely not welcome to the COMEX and its Wall Street overseers. The common practice of ambushing the Gold & Silver prices overnight or immediately after hours in the late afternoon might soon come to an end. 
And this:
Expect no change to the 0% policy (ZIRP) with no change to the heavy monetary inflation (QE), as the path to ruin is set, and the policy of Inflate to Infinity cannot be stopped. Gold will not stop until it surpasses at least $5000 to $7000 in price. Silver will not stop until it surpasses at least $150 to $200 in price. Such forecasts invite mockery, but in two years they will seem prescient.
About CME Mafia:
Few are aware, but the events in the first week of May are what a COMEX default looks like, in its preliminary phase!!! JPMorgan could not meet the schedule of May silver deliveries, that simple. In time, the distance between paper Gold & Silver and physical Gold & Silver will be great. Then the COMEX shuts down, unless they act as a Cash & Carry exchange. Doubtful.
Golden Jackass via Goldseek via Silver Gold Silver: Green shoots, exit strategy, no QE3 (May 25 2011)

So what does this make Jeff Christian? Is he a jackass too? He's forecasting $26 silver.

(video) CPM's Christian forecasts silver at $26, gold near $1400 (May 25 2011)

A brother with a big brain

8:22 pm (Hawaii) BrotherJohnF is one of the most stable, steady hands in the community of vlogging analysts/commentators on silver. This is one of his better videos, a simple reflection of price over the past decade. He began accumulating junk silver when it began to break out around 2003 or so and has continued to stack since.

It's interesting to me that while he points out the obvious manipulations and activity, he doesn't go into detail about it. In fact, his point in this video is that there is nothing those entities can do to stop silver's ascent in the long run. The higher highs and higher lows on the 10-year chart affirm what BrotherJohnF says. His target is $68/oz.

It's not often anyone in this world of PMs looks forward that far, and those who do come up with big numbers. Huge targets. BJF has four figures in mind for silver at some point in the distant future. But near term, he sees 68, and I can't disagree.

(video) BrotherJohnF: Silver Update: Keep Stackin' (May 25 2011)

Sentimental reasons?

1:06 pm (Hawaii) Finally, a moment to relax, get off the road and have some fine home-cooked style lunch in a small town, slower pace. I'm at peace here. Catching up with the wisest of the wise online. Brother Turd sees today as proof that the PMs are too strong to be taken down for long. I can't disagree with him, even though fear shook me out of EXK and AGQ earlier. I can't be mad at myself too long. Even if I'm right and silver spot price plummets, that's just an opportunity to buy more physical.

At my age, with my patient, deliberative nature, it makes more sense to ride out the storms and venture out to the destination, to the place where my conviction lies. I may just do that.

Turd Ferguson: Changing sentiment (May 26 2011)

Weapon of choice

12:28 pm (Hawaii) On the road today and for some odd reason, losing money on those trades isn't bothering me. I exercised caution, cut losses. True, stop-losses would've kept me in better exit points, but that was true only in EXK. There was no way to avoid that steep drop in AGQ. But looking back now, Rip Van Winkle would've fared better than I did.

AGQ is at 194.61 after hours, which is just a few cents lower than my entry point yesterday. Well off the recent high above 201, but still ... I would be OK with it here had I not sold. EXK is at 9.84, finishing pretty strong after that drop to the 9.40 level, where I sold (9.48). Yup, I was one of the fools who got shaken out. Guess that makes me nothing more than a speculator no matter how much I believe in the fundamentals of the silver and gold markets. As for XG, what a punching bag. After that nice run, it's been a dud for days, now at 10.42. I'm glad, in a way, that I got out of that. Then again, this is not a bad level for an entry point. It's just that my entry was at 10.73.

It's a matter of perspective and timing. All the risk management in the world is great for a trader, but it still comes down to choices. Do I choose to micro-manage from minute to minute? Or do I put some trust in the direction of one stock, one sector, one global economy that is clearly in trouble? Even the bears have their conviction and find ways to make money. It's simple for a lot of traders, not so simple for many more. I want simple. Traders who knew silver was topping again at 39 (or close to it) went long ZSL or shorted AGQ. Some of them smartly went long AGQ at 188 or 190 not long after the opening bell. Just like those who sold EXK at 9.90 to 9.93 yesterday, then went long again today below 9.50 — where I sold.

It's about choices, more than any other factor. Being informed helps me make better choices, but it's about as plain as this: buy low, sell high. Anybody with a half-brain and can determine what's low and what's high in any stock, etf or sector and makes the best choices based on that platform will win more than lose.

Might be best to flush out all the activity and give myself a break for the rest of the week. Maybe build up my cash flow situation so I can acquire more physical metal in the next few weeks, strictly for long-term purposes, if the puppet masters take spot prices down again. Not if, but when.

In a tank of sharks

10:05 am (Hawaii) Trying to be a pilot fish ... it's not getting easier. It's getting harder. Choppy seas in the world of precious metals. I was fairly good a while back when Spot Silver climbed to 49, spun out of control and fell to 32. But the trades in EXK, AGQ and XG the past few days leave me yearning for balance and peace of mind. I didn't lose a lot in the sells today, but watching a $525 paper profit turn into a $370 loss was disappointing. I'm too jaded to be angry or frustrated. It's more like surrender now, not the kind that will keep me from trading paper silver and gold, and absolutely not the kind that will scare me out of buying physical PM.

It's just another step along the way, understanding the manipulation and fear in this market. My Metals list is now 41% green, a whole lot better than early this morning when it was around 21%. Then, only really good news could keep EXK above water, but that eventually sold off. It's just doubly difficult when spot price gets yo-yoed by the puppet masters and takes everything down with it no matter what. We don't have a fair opponent for the CME Mafia, an entity that can slash and decapitate with as much frequency and force as the Big Money. We are at the mercy of the phantom puppeteers.

That's why I have avoided going long silver for the most part overnight. Last night's exception proved to myself that it was a good policy. There's no sensible or fair reason why Spot Silver should not be at 38 or 39 right now, and yet fairness and sensibility have NOTHING to do with price. This is the game many of us have chose to play, and when the rules are completely altered over and over, bent to one party's advantage, then it becomes pointless.

For us peon investors and traders, there is no edge.

There is no consolation in being 100% cash while EXK runs back to 9.85, especially when I gave out and finally went to sleep. AGQ is struggling to get back to even for the day, and XG is hopelessly dead money for now, as are most small miners who have no news to report. (Just another reminder of why I stopped trading smaller stocks long ago.) ZSL is still atop my Metals list with a 3% gain, far off its high of the day.

Even with the nice gain in gold and silver in the past few days, it just doesn't smell right. If the Chinese gold futures market is released from restrictions, maybe things really get interesting. Maybe when the Chinese silver futures market opens (expected at the end of this year), we get balance. Or maybe the puppetry continues and grows to a second continent.

The mystery is what permits potential. The blatant chicanery is what shuts that potential down. Between PM options expiration today and my uncooperative sleep patterns, I may resort to putting stop-loss orders on any future positions. Or I'll have to learn to buy puts. But whatever the case, watching minute by minute has become fruitless for me. There's a next step ahead and I'm taking it. Just don't know where it will go.

Making sausage

3:37 am (Hawaii) Another morning begins with me lying in bed for an hour or two. No TV here in the bedroom, just the laptop and me. Trying to figure out how EXK has remained green through this morning's pullback in Spot Silver. TheStreet.com likes the technicals on the chart.

Silver still trying to get untracked, but the process is not pretty. Same goes for gold. AGQ, EXK, XG all losing ground bit by bit.

Marketwire: Endeavour moving forward (May 25 2011)

Update 4:04 am (Hawaii) My suspicions were right. This is no time to be trading long on PMs, and I cashed out of AGQ at 191.38 (small loss), EXK at 9.47 (tiny gain) and XG at 10.38 (small loss). Back to 100% cash. I wanted to hold these positions through a bounce, but there is simply not enough buying pressure right now, which means Spot Silver could easily return to 36 and below. I think traders and investors look at what happened this morning and realize the friggin bogeyman CME is out loose in the woods again.

So, being up a nice (paper) profit yesterday and selling at a solid loss today, that was a swing of about $850. When I awoke during premarket and my positions had rallied off their early lows, I was at break-even, thinking that odds were low that prices would go back to those lows. The fear factor in the PM market is widespread, though. I didn't take that into account enough.

ZSL now at 17.49, off its high of 17.70, up 4.4%. Turns out that selling AGQ above 200 yesterday was the right move whether you hate CME or not. Selling AGQ and/or buying ZL, which was 16.73 at yesterday's close.

Update 4:21 am (Hawaii) Spot Silver reaching 38.75 overnight turned out to be the turning point, it appears. What's almost impossible to figure out is whether the central bank in China is willing and able to short Spot Silver and Gold. China is still in accumulation mode of physical, so higher prices aren't what they want. Yet. To that end, I won't mind getting more myself once the price goes below 35. 33 would be nicer. 30 would be great.

Terrible Timmy's Time Machine

3:09 am (Hawaii) Maybe it's too early in the morning, I've got too many cobwebs in the head and the crash of an automobile waking me up for good did no favors. But maybe this who flash crash (the latest one anyway) was engineered by an overburdened Treasury head who unknowingly walked into a parallel universe and found himself years younger. Maybe he was 8 years old and had all the power in the world there. Maybe his first act was to run to the nearest (and conveniently empty) algo hedge fund office, type in some secret code mumbo-jumbo that bought up a whole lotta naked shorts on Spot Silver, sending the price over a cliff.

Maybe. But soon enough, the young boy's time travel adventure ended and all he had done gradually dissipated. That would explain how AGQ sold off to 188.25 this morning in peon premarket trading. AGQ is now back to 197 or so, still off yesterday's close of 200.18. But Spot Silver has bounced off the early low (below 36) and is at 37.14. Sleeping through the first hour of premarket was a good thing in this scenario.

I'd have a hard time believing any theory other than one involving the puppet masters and their naked shorts (unbacked paper silver). Was it really Asia that took the price down from 38.75 to 36.75 in a 3-hour span? If Asia generally is going to sell off any topping action, why here? A lot of buyers got their positions when Spot was above 45. I don't believe they'd settle for 38 or 37 en masse like this.

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

The Takedown, part 3?

10:55 pm (Hawaii) Just when things looked so promising for Spot Silver, we have this. It looks like yet another takedown by the puppet masters. Just as the price hit 38.75, it got mauled down to 37.57. Looks like there was some fighting by bulls along the way, but when it's this one-sided, there can be only one reason. Price is now lower than it was when afterhours trading ended stateside earlier today (Wednesday).

Just another 30 minutes or so before Hong Kong closes shop. London and Globex took Spot Silver higher the past two days overnight. But it hadn't been knocked senseless like this in those instances. Could the CME really announce another margin hike requirement in the morning? I can't say I would be shocked. But with all the brouhaha in London over JP Morgan and manipulation of price in the LME, any puppetry (paper silver manipulation, lies about physical silver in the Comex vaults, etc.) would be at least a bit surprising.

Update 11:03 pm (Hawaii) Holy crap it just got worse. Back to vertical crashes by the CME Mafia. Guess I should've taken my silver play profits when I had the chance. Nothing I can do here but watch a dvr, read a book and go to sleep. They can't keep silver down forever and they know it. I'll be patient.

Update 11:08 pm (Hawaii) Gold getting beaten down, as well. The earlier margin hike abuses (five hikes in nine days) scared off plenty of speculators. Then Spot Silver moved from 32.20 to 39+ before dropping again. What happens this time? If buyers can't push Spot Silver back up, will the price just melt and dissolve back to the low 30s? Or worse? 

I could've avoided the risk by cashing out earlier, or by learning how to buy puts. But it's too late now. If the price keeps getting brutalized when peon premarket trading starts in less than 3 hours, I'll get some ZSL and hedge myself for the bumpy ride. It's a good thing I'm 60% cash. If they take it below 35, below 33, even below 30, I'm ready for more physical. 

Update 11:24 pm (Hawaii) Spot Silver finally bounces a tiny bit. Gotta hand it to the CME. If they really felt like it, they could take it to 30 overnight. That would probably be too obvious and blatant, even by their standards. They could be doing this to 1) ease buying pressure, 2) create better physical buying opportunities for its vault, 3) counter China's new gold futures instrument in Hong Kong, 4) send a message to China regarding its coming silver futures instrument. 

Asia taking silver higher

4:44 pm (Hawaii) Spot silver at 38.20 after Sydney and Hong Kong open shop. Impressive. We'll see if it sticks ... again, since Hong Kong opened its gold futures instrument, PMs have been on solid footing. So far.

6:20 pm (Hawaii) Until this week, the last time Asia bid Spot Silver up like this ... the CME Mafia shot them down in cold blood. Asia never really recovered until recently. Yesterday, Asia kept the price at the 36-36.50 level. Tonight, price has gone from 37.75 to 38.50. Last price was 38.26. Spot Gold is at 1527.90, still holding its ground after Monday's move from 1516 to 1525.

Zero Hedge: Euro gold confiscation scheme unfolds (May 25 2011)

Buyer's remorse?

2:20 pm (Hawaii) No remorse here, not short term anyway. I've bought almost all the physical gold and silver I could lately, especially after Spot Silver dropped below 35. But just for fun, I'll go look at some of the stuff I bought, have ordered or just didn't get.

• Scottsdale Silver 10-oz bar. Still waiting on this, being patient, and it'll feel great in my hands. I bet I'll wish I had 10 instead of just one. Ordered it at $387. Now going for $407.

• The Academy 10-oz hand-poured bar has always been the apple of my eye. Never ordered it. It was around $382 a week or two ago. Now going for $405.

More later. Got errands to tend to.

Update 4:23 pm (Hawaii) More stuff I either got or couldn't get.

• 10-oz Englehard silver bar. I got this when the "cash discount price" was roughly $415. I paid more (credit card). Now going for $432 ($443 credit card) at Provident Metals.

• Silver American Eagle (2006) is something I picked up off-island for $40.77 apiece. Now going for $45.21 ($46.43 credit card) at Provident.

• Gold American Eagle (2006) is another coin I have, but only the 1/10. Random year price is 172.75 at Provident. I got mine at $180, slightly overpaid, but happy to have a piece of gold.

• Gold American Eagle (random year) 1/2 oz. I ordered this recently and paid $816 or so. Now going for $825 at Provident.

I'd love to get a lot more silver ASEs but I'm torn between something like that, a US Mint-backed coin with a big premium, and silver (and gold) at the cheapest possible price. I've read the arguments for and against paying premium. Not like I'm about to buy 100,000 ounces anyway, but I keep learning. Preferable to being ignorant.

The ideal, of course, would be a collection of big bars (savings) and coins (fun). Something to shoot for, no doubt.

Path of least resistance

5:34 am (Hawaii) The indices have been rather quiet, but PMs are reaching higher. Spot Gold was constant around 1522-1527 overnight and is now above 1530. Spot Silver has inched over 37.50. With each little grab higher, a little more fear leaves the PM market. As Turd Ferguson wrote yesterday, there's not a whole lot of resistance for Spot Silver between 36.50 and 39, so holding this territory is vital for bulls. All the litigious action in London regarding JP Morgan and other entities over monopolization clearly has an effect on what used to be typical counter measures by the CME. A little part of me wouldn't be shocked if grenades start falling and an attempt to drive Spot Silver down happens. We shall see.

I opened a small position in AGQ at 195 this morning. Still holding positions in EXK (up 5.6%) and XG, which is stuck in the mud at 10.43, down almost 3% from my entry point two days ago. Eventually, buyers will return to XG, no idea when. I'm more than 60% in cash.

With that, AGQ just cracked 200 and EXK is closing in on 9.90. The biggest gainer on my Metals list is GPL (+7.8%).


5:22 am (Hawaii) I got up with the alarm clock at 2 am, then slid back into slumber until about 4:15. I kept the TV off until about 15 minutes ago, roughly 5 am. That's where my morning changed. Checking charts and the market without the TV on can be calming, even clarifying. Then I turned on the TV and was stunned. With the passing of CNBC's Mark Haines, it's a bit surreal. Wasn't he on the air just yesterday? Just like that, gone. He was one of the few TV interviewers who had the green light to put any CEO to task on any issue. Not sure they can really, fully replace his experience and candor. Prayers and best wishes to his family and friends.

New York Times: Mark Haines, CNBC anchor, dies at 65 (May 25 2011)

Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Pop tomorrow, bear raid later?

1:06 pm (Hawaii) Makes sense to me. As Jesse says, the last time there was a PM pop on options expiry, a massive bear raid on the following three-day weekend ensued. We're entering a similar scenario this week. I was already planning to cash out before the weekend.

Update 4:35 pm (Hawaii) Here's the perspective of the eccentric genius, Le Fly, who is taking precautionary measures (as always) for an inflationary environment. He expects some form of QE3 to start sooner or later, lest Greece default, the Euro banking cartel collapse, and drag the US into the gutter with them.

iBankCoin: The cost of inaction is too great (May 24 2011)

Update 11:58 pm (Hawaii) A quick look before bedtime was worthwhile. Spot Silver up at 37.15. Brother Turd noted that there is little resistance to 39. We shall see soon enough!

Brits say 'Bollocks!" to shysters

12:15 pm (Hawaii) Via SilverGoldSilver.com via Zero Hedge, a story from Reuters points to this as maybe the biggest reason why PMs were up today.

Financial Post/Reuters: LME needs to get tough on warehouses (May 24 2011)
This from Zero Hedge:
And another big oops for Blythe Masters who apparently has decided to move now officially investigated market manipulation practices to London and away from the CFTC. In the meantime, silver Comex holdings continue to decline and at last check, are flirting with the record low 100 million ounce level. Once can only imagine (literally) what is concurrently happening at the LME and/or LBMA.