Smelled good

3:13 am (Hawaii) Just before Trichet spoke, FAZ bumped up to 50.46 premarket. Then he said, indirectly, that interest rates are going up this summer in Euro land. Exactly when, he won't say. Bullish, just a bit, for financials. Bad for FAZ. I got out of that trade. The idea wasn't bad, but the timing was horrible. Buying at a top (yesterday) is never good, even when it turns profitable. that just sets up the next top buy, and inevitably, buying at the top often enough leads to destruction. I lost $315 on that trade, a small number percentage-wise (well below 1%) of my modest roll. But I had to get out. There is no catalyst to get FAZ moving in premarket, and none once the bell — and the hyperspeed deep-galaxy alien machines — start humming.

FAZ can edge higher from here. I considered a partial sell. But the added risk on the downside wasn't worth it. Just not enough buying pressure yet, so it could easily fall below 50 or 45.50. Live to fight another day.

Update 3:22 am (Hawaii) 56% of my Regular watch list is green, 31% red. Spot Silver inching higher. Spot Gold in range. In a rut. CSTR is up 4% on news that it is opening more than 1,000 kiosks in Safeway stores. MWW (+3.3%), MOS (+2.3%), LULU (+2%) all up. TVIX (-3.3%), ONW (-2.3%) and ZSL (-1.7%).

Metals list is 56% green, 23% red. TRE (+2.5%), EXK (+2.1%), XG (+1.8%), AGQ (+1.7%), GPL (+1.6%) all benefitting from an overdue bounce in silver plays. How long will this last? Almost all silver plays are green.

ZSL (-1.6%), DBB (-1.3%), COPX (-1.1%), JJC (-1.1%) are at the bottom.

Update 3:44 am (Hawaii) FAZ just did a major melt up and mini crash. Went from 50.02 to 50.75 just seven minutes after the opening bell. Then fell to 50.30 in the next few minutes. Wild. Probably purely mechanical, but I wonder how much of it was raised to clear out positions for big money that bought in late yesterday near the top. Now at 50.36. Without any expected news for financials, it'll hover here.

Might be time for me to hit the sack again. That was a hell of a feeling to see it go back to my entry point. I could've broke even, in theory. Moving on...

Update 3:57 am (Hawaii) The fall for FAZ is fugly, from 50.75 to 49.58. Waterfall. Dead cat bounce for the finnies: WFC (+1.7%), C (+1.3%), GS (+1.2%) BAC (+1%), JPM (+1%). NBG (+2.3%) up, too. The only one on my list of banks in the red is IRE (-3.1%).

AAPL getting rotten to the core?

3:34 am (Hawaii) Of course not. If you held from 95 (I didn't) or 214 (I didn't), then this reshuffling of the Nasdaq 100 won't worry you a bit. After all, even with shares down 1% to 337.66, AAPL is well within its trading range (326 to 365). It's the doldrums, for sure, with earnings reports weeks away and no catalyst to the upside in sight. I'm not about to dive into a huge position blindly here, but perspective is always handy.

The market has opened and 70% of my watch list is red. That's almost as extreme as it ever gets. EWJ was at the very bottom, so something's not going so well in Japan. Then GOOG took its place, down 1.9%, which is odd since the reshuffling of the Nasdaq 100 should benefit GOOG (and INTC and MSFT).

Silver's massive move up continued yesterday, as Turd Ferguson had prognosticated. But he also noted that 39 or 40 would be a ceiling. He said so in his latest video. PAAS, PHYS, SLW, all down in this early morning.

So what's working? CSTR is up 3%. WNR, the magic potion winner of Le Fly, is up again, now 18.62 (+0.9%). LULU and NFLX are up, too, which tells me that the bubble lives, at least for a few more minutes. Never a great sign when LULU and NFLX are among the winners. Toppy top top!

APC, F, VXX are up, which is interesting. So is EXK, so not all silver plays are tanking. This is a good morning to stay tuned in, relax in the upper deck, pick up the binoculars and wonder how such a great environment turned into the worst Final Four final in a generation. (And a mosh pit of a trading session.)

Bumpy hump day

Somehow, we'll survive

9:11 am (Hawaii). One of these days, my sleep cycle will adjust and I'll sleep from 9 pm to 4 am, getting a reasonable amount of sleep before the opening bell. Until then, I'm not awake until midway through the session. Not that I'm missing a lot.

Less than two hours until the closing bell and stocks are a mixed bag. Oil and silver have cooled off significantly this week. Oil futures keep getting shot down below 105 despite violence and turmoil in Libya and neighboring states. The stabilization, however precarious, of crude oil prices has allowed some equities to move forward.

GMCR 43.84 (+7.2%), CSTR 43.27 (+2.6%), NGD 10.59 (+2.4%), LULU 76.45 (+1.6%), AMZN 169.47 (+1.6%)

Smells like retailers are getting some bang for their springtime buck, but they're at the mercy of Middle East madness.

TVIX is also up there, to no surprise, with a 3% gain to 44.72. NGD is up 2.2% (10.57) even though gold is basically flat as a whole.

42% of my watch list is in the green; 56% red.

SLV is up fractionally, but SLW is down again, losing 1.4% so far (44.04). Silver futures have bobbed and weaved at the 36 level today. The mad rush to get in has reversed this week. Was it just a mania? Or is this a short pause on the way to 50? I'm not risking my hard-earned, inflation-ridden dollars to find out.

IPI (-3.7%), EXK (-3.2%), PAAS (-2.9%), X (-2.7%) and FCX (-2.4%) are the big losers on my watch list so far. That's an ag, two silver plays, a steel and a copper. Whether we believe the top is in or not for silver is irrelevant. It's getting sandbagged on every thrust toward a new high and the puppetmasters keep tying new knots on those thinning strings.

AAPL is hanging on at 352.42, off its LOD (350.60). Can a lousy market knock AAPL off its feet as the iPad 2 hits stores Friday afternoon?

Still 100% cash and watching with trusty binoculars from the rafters.

Hump day reading
Cafe Americain: Harvey Organ: targets $2,000 gold and $125 silver (Mar 9 2011)

Friday forkway

3:15 am (Hawaii). Up. Down. Left. Right. Spend. Hoard.

America is at an economic crossroads today. Depending on who you believe, we are on the brink of prosperity (again). So says Alan Greenspan, per CNBC this morning. "Momentum" is with the improving U.S. economy, he says. Then you have precious metal bugs, some who are heavily invested in gold, silver, ammunition and years worth of canned food, who believe the U.S. dollar is doomed.

All I care about is making a smart trade. One at a time. I've missed the ride up with AAPL despite my bullishness about the stock and company. With 20 minutes until the non-farm payrolls report, AAPL is trading a buck higher in premarket at 360+. It was a couple of weeks ago, when Steve Jobs was spotted at the doctor's office, when I got out at this price. I knew the public would overreact. "He's at the doctor? OMG!" Well, shares dipped much lower from there as hedge funds took profits. Now things are so much better, a catalyst is in play and a new trading range is being formed.

Premarket, 60% of my watch list is green, 22% red, 18% flat.

NGD +6.4%, UCO +2%, EXK +1.7%, PAAS 1.4%, USO +1.1%, FCX +1%, SLW +0.9%, SLV +0.8%

TVIX -7.5%, CLNE -1%, GMCR -0.9%, CSTR -0.8%, OPEN -0.7%, LVS -0.6%, VZ -0.4%, QID -0.3%

Update, 3:41 am (Hawaii). Non-farms payroll report was ho-hum. In line, according to CNBC.

AAPL has retraced more than half of its premarket gain, now 360.33. I don't feel confident about entering here, however. Wait-and-see mode.

Update, 3:50 am (Hawaii). Watch list still mostly green: 51% positive, 33% neg, 16% neutral. Crude oil futures are above 103. Is there a surer bet out there? Maybe AAPL. The assurance from Libya's rebel leader that they will fight to the death probably put the spike in today's price.

NGD +2.4%, UCO +2.3%, USO +1.5%, PAAS +1.4%, EXK +1.2%, SLW +0.9%, SLV +0.8%, LULU +0.7%, FCX +0.6%, APC +0.5%

GS -1.3%, C -1.1%, GMCR -0.9%, CSTR -0.8%, OPEN -0.7%, TVIX -0.6%

Update, 3:59 am (Hawaii). Divergence in gold and silver. While gold, Dow Jones, S&P and Nasdaq futures have eroded in the past hour, silver headed higher. Weirdness.

Update, 4:02 am (Hawaii). Watch list bullishness declining still. 47% green, 35% red, 18% flat. 

Update, 4:22 am (Hawaii). Crude oil is a tempting play (again), but it's important to remember that many of the oil crises of years past were stopped in their tracks by the presence of the US armed forces. Total Investor noted this yesterday in a thorough examination of crude prices before and after American intervention. UCO dipped to about 54.50, close to the 50% retracement of today's premarket gain, but has bounced and is now back up to 54.80. Considerable as a daytrade. but probably too late now.


Update, 5:16 am (Hawaii). Not sure who the gold analyst/bull was, but he showed up on CNBC 30 or 45 minutes ago and noted that Mark Haynes had been negative on gold when he was on the show several months ago. Haynes was pissed, but his body language said it all: it was the truth.

Silver futures chart online is behind most other charts by 15 minutes. This divergence began as silver hit $35. Not sure why, but anything is possible. Gold was fresh and live, but not silver. SLW cracked 45 for the first time, making me regret selling at 43.10 on Wednesday. EXK, PAAS, SLV also doing extremely well.

NGD, UCO, and now TVIX atop my list. So is NFLX, which had been beaten down recently. Not touching that, but the metal plays and UCO continue to appeal to me.

50% retracement levels (on today's gains): SLW 44.37, UCO 54.44. SLW actually dipped to retrace level at 44.36, but I froze up. On cue, SLW ran up immediately back toward 45. My loss.

Hi Ho Silver!

Update, 6:02 am (Hawaii). Most mornings, I'd be in bed by now, peacefully asleep. This time, even without Red Bull, I'm wide awake. The precious metals, silver in particular, are screaming out loud. It's an ecstatic sound. I'm not in, no skin in, all cash. But it's an amazing move up for silver. It makes me remember that though the masses (like me) are interested now, the huge move in the past year probably means silver is nearing a top at some point. Could be next week. Maybe next month or next year. But irrational exuberance is nearing.

EXK exploded above 9 to an HOD of 9.22, now at 9.10. PAAS +3.1%. SLV +2.8%. SLW +2.2%, well off its HOD of 45.13, now 44.68. I want a position at 44.37 (50% retracement of today's gain).

In all, my watch list is 56% green, 41% red. Markets are generally slightly red. AAPL is back in the green, just barely, at 359.59. Needed a breather after that nice move the past couple of days.

UCO still appealing, though I wouldn't want to hold over the weekend if naval ships from around the world converge on Libya. But who knows? Maybe Quadaffi blows up every oil field out of spite.

Update 3:35 pm (Hawaii). Selloff. Upside for precious metals, crude oil. And it would've been more extreme if not for the strange moves. Artificial intelligence, indeed.

Saved by the bell?

Does it matter?

AAPL may never see 350 again

Movin' on up no matter the manipulation stateside

Up up up

Absolutely untainted by equity manipulation

Pump on Fast Money didn't hurt either

All indications point toward continued stampede-like behavior in crude and PMs. How did JP Morgan not pull the rug out on PMs by yesterday or today? Are they shackled now? Is silver going to hit $40 next week? 

I have a very hard time believing that the dollar will implode, that the puppet masters won't pull the rug out from the masses (moving into PMs) soon. Real soon. I hope it doesn't happen that way. Where else is the small-fry citizen to trade or invest when all else is failing? Shorting equities is dangerous with QE2 at full bore. Metals make sense, but strange things happen overnight, or over a weekend. 

In other words, I trust no one. To those of have the gumption to go long silver (rather than sell early as I did), a toast to you. And a merry weekend, also. I caught a bit of a ride on SLV last week, but missed the ride to 34.87 (after hours today). UCO was appealing, but I stayed out and it closed AH at 56.50 today (5.3%). Big cajones means you were still long EXK (+12.2%), which closed AH at 9.36 today. 

EXK 9.36 (+12.2%), UCO 56.50 (+5.3%), NGD 10.79 (+5.2%), SLV 34.93 (+4.5%), NFLX 211.80 (+4.1%), TVIX 42.74 (+4.1%), SLW 45.15 (+3.3%), PAAS 39.70 (+3.2%), CRR 122.90 (+3.2%)

FAS 30.69 (-3.7%), CLNE 13.51 (-2.9%), C 4.55 (-2.8%), VCLK 14.80 (-2.4%), GS 160.80 (-2.2%), EGPT 17.57 (-2.1%), F 14.45 (-2.1%), X 55.70 (-1.9%), GOOG 600.24 (-1.5%), FCX 51.69 (-1.4%), TBT 38.78 (-1.3%)

All (mainly) because of Libya and the contagion of protest across the Middle East. The violence. Quaddafi. But intervention is imminent. Them big ships loaded to the gills with peacemaking weaponry are closing in on Libya sooner or later. Crude will return to 'normalcy.' 

Didn't trade today. I'm starting to realize that even when the direction of the market is fairly clear, the artificial vapors are affecting my judgment. Otherwise I would've jumped in when SLW pulled back roughly 50% on today's gain. I would've trusted what I've seen and bought UCO. I definitely would've opened a UCO position as a hedge if I were long AAPL. Instead, I stayed all cash, as I have since early in the week. 

A coward, yes, but a coward who can relax this weekend and return Monday morning fully locked and loaded. Takes a bit of a twisted mind to attack this particular market. Will work on that this weekend. 

Friday reading
AP: Oil settles at highest level since Sept. 2008 (Mar 4 2011) "Oil prices rose past $104 a barrel to end the week at a 29-month high..."

AP: Burst of hiring could mark turning point for jobs (Mar 4 2011)

The Telegrah: Libyan rebels vow 'victory or death' (Mar 4 2011)

King World News: John Hathaway: $50 to $60 silver, US dollar in danger (Mar 3 2011) "If we have a continuation of QE2 past June 30th, I wouldn't be surprised to see silver in the $50, $60 an ounce territory. PMs and oil top the list in what is becoming, apparently, an every-other-day switcheroo between equities and metals/oils.

The Fly: Yelp is a partner of Open Table, i.e. Asshat of the Week Award to Herb Greenberg/Brad Safalow (Mar 3 2011) "You f**king imbecile, Yelp is a partner of OPEN's. And, to top it off, the only relevent website that could ever threaten OPEN's dominance, Tripadvisor.com, have a partnership as well."

Zero Hedge: Utah pushes to accept gold, silver as alternative currency (Mar 3 2011)

Turd Ferguson: Silver consolidating above 34 (Mar 3 2011)

Fantastical Friday

Gold up. Silver up. Oil up. Stocks up. Everything (almost) is up, and mostly up big with less than 20 minutes left in the session.

I haven't made a trade since Tuesday early morning (premarket). I don't feel satisfied, but I don't feel greedy, either. Good place. Still feeling the ailment, still achy and headachy and it sucks. When I woke up, the market was already 90 minutes in (almost 6 am Hawaii time) and everything was green. I've had some long naps since and there is simply an abundance of buyers and a shortage of sellers. Who would've figured that for a Friday. It's almost like a parallel universe, or an opposite world. Instead of the sell-into-strength tendencies of Fridays, it's almost a fantasy.

The first price that had my eyeballs boinging out of my cranium was UCO, which was listed at more than 300% up. I was drowsy when I saw that and immediately thought, 1) must be a typo, and 2) it's not a typo, so maybe Libya just got turned into dust. Holy crude! But no, it's a reverse split in UCO, the one I'd heard about earlier in the week. QID also did a reverse split.

But generally, the top of my watch list is ruled by silver entities. EXK (+5.1%), SLW (+5%), SLV (+4.1%), PAAS (+3.7%). AAPL, BIDU, other momo names like CMG and LULU all up roughly 1% or more. But on the red side, CSTR and NFLX can't get out of the hole. Even AMZN is fractionally down; as the No. 1 contender to usurp NFLX's throne in streaming movies, AMZN should be rolling today, right?

VXX and TVIX are the bottom of my list. Did they actually stop bombing unarmed protestors in Libya today. If so, how can oil stocks still be above water for the day. Weird. Fantastical. Everybody (but the shorts) is happy.

The only negative? Volume is low.

Freaky Friday: Options Expiration

Watch list preview for the day. It's options expiration and the market is teetering at a level that could lead to a healthy pullback. In other words, any trader not exercising caution could get shredded.

If you like candlestick charts, here's the status of my watch list, courtesy of American Bulls.

AAPL — hold
AMZN — buy if
APC — buy if
ARMH — sell if
BIDU — hold
C — sell if
CLR — buy confirmed (Thursday)
CMG — hold
CSTR — wait
DIS — hold
EGPT — buy if
EXK — sell if
F — sell confirmed (Thursday)
FAS — hold
FCX — sell confirmed (Thursday)
GLD — hold
GMCR — wait
GNK — sell if
GOOG — hold
HAIN — sell if
IPI — buy confirmed (Thursday)
LULU — buy if
LVS — hold
MOS — hold
NFLX — hold
NGD — sell confirmed (Thursday)
OIH — hold
OPEN — buy if
PSUN — wait
QID — buy if
RLOC — hold
SBUX — buy if
SLV — buy if
TBT — buy if
TLT — sell if
TVIX — n/a
UCO — hold
VCLK — wait
VXX — wait
VZ — buy confirmed (Thursday)
X — wait
XVIX — n/a

Update, 5:44 am (Hawaii). So dependent on Red Bull. I kept an eye on the "buy if" watch list (six stocks only) and SLV really intrigued me. Always has for many reasons. But it was trading above its opening price of 31.08 on up to about 31.17, in that range, while the rest of the market was flat. Then I nodded off. It was a few minutes at most. Woke up and SLV was at 31.25 or so. Kept right on going, big run and settled into the 31.30s. I opened a position, with the stochastics swinging low, saving a lot of powder for other opportunities.

SLV has made a massive run from 26 in the past three weeks, and with equities peaking short term and so much uncertainty in the Middle East (oil), metals are so shiny and attractive. For now. I still don't trust the possibilities on options expiry. I think SLV holders are ready to cash in profits after holding from 26, 27, 28, 29. It's human nature to collect that beautiful bounty before the weekend begins. So I hope to be out of this trade before lunch hour hits the East Coast.

My position is small, so even another big run today won't make a huge profit for me, but I am aiming to get familiar with the price movement and rhythm of SLV. It could be a nice, steady trading vehicle for some time, especially with AAPL in the doldrums (355).

Update, 6:18 am (Hawaii). Added more SLV at 31.56. Hesitated on stochastics (low) and MACD at 31.51, but no regrets. Huge buys came in moments after my addition, now at 31.68. This is too hot and I don't assume anything about where SLV will close today, but the news surrounding the physical metal is bullish, bullish, bullish. For today.


Bob Kirtley: Silver prices just starting to warm up (see Chinese demand)

Update, 11:27 am (Hawaii). It's been so long since I actually stayed up through the night and morning to follow the market. Normally, I sleep in or get a decent nap. This time, Red Bull and a position in SLV had me buzzed and stoked. That's where I have to deal with this plain fact: once emotion enters the realm of any trade I'm in, good goes bad. 

It was roughly 7:30 am when SLV was hovering at 32 and I had a decent paper profit, far more than I expected that quickly. I'll take a 1.2% profit for just three hours of "work" any time. But I took a phone call that was lengthy and the topics were both sad and happy. Emotion. By the time I hung up, SLV was still slightly above 32. Knowing that I entered midway through today's momentum, exiting at lunchtime (Eastern time) was the game plan. 

But I realize now that emotion clouded my thinking. I was shaking off the effects of the conversation, but also feeling a bit high about the fun of a daytrade. I haven't bought and sold anything on the same day with a solid profit in a long time. Most trades cover a few days. So I sat there and watched. And watched. And eventually, right on cue, the selling began after lunch. I held and held all the way down to 31.55, a shade above my cost basis.

I knew it was too late to get out. The old adage, Get out fast or don't get out at all, so true, true, true. My mental stop was right above my cost basis. If SLV froze at 31.55, I wouldn't mind holding it over the weekend, either. But the game plan was in and out, and I failed. I couldn't stay locked in that failure, though.

The market remained somewhat robust, closing in the green. SLV picked up, dropped off, repeat ... eventually, buyers returned, i.e. traders going long rather than the shorts who got squeezed royally in the morning. SLV is at 31.85 afterhours. 

The retrace today from its high of 32.13 down to 31.55 is EXACTLY 61.8% (going back to yesterday's closing price of 31.03). For you Fibonacci devotees out there, this is proof that you are geniuses. 

Watching SLV trade for hours was quite an experience. The MACD is undeniably indicative of direction of price. That never failed. I didn't want to believe, but I don't matter to MACD. Also, by the final hour, I gave up watching the 1-minute chart. It was exhausting. The 5-minute did just fine for a position like mine, which is not huge, not tiny. 

Another observation: Once the lots on the Ask side become smaller than the Bid size, SLV goes poof! Early on, during the run to 32+, lot sizes of 20,000 and more poured through on the Ask side. After it hit is high of the day, the Asks shrank until the final 45 minutes. Numbers just don't lie. 

So, I screwed up. Maybe I should turn off the phone during market hours (3 am to 3 pm Hawaii time). Maybe I should tune out human existence in my life 12 hours a day. But if I'd sold at half of 1 percent or 1 percent flat off the top, I'd have my pocket-change profit. I'd have satisfaction. I would probably not have reestablished a position, though. 

I'm prepared, though, to roll with this trade and see it through to Tuesday. Unless SLV does something unexpected in AH. Note to self: write up every possible scenario and have a solution.


Update, 12:47 pm (Hawaii). A look at how today's "buy if" stocks turned out. The market opened flat, so the buy-if mandate is to see how each stock fared after the opening bell. If it stays above opening price, potential buy. If it opens lower, no deal. 

All "buys" listed here are in theory only.

SLV — previous close 31.03; open 31.08; 31.95 afterhours (+2.8% since opening bell)

SBUX — previous close 33.50; open 33.37; not a buy (but turned out +1.9% since opening bell)

TBT — previous close 39.97; open 40.28; 40.14 afterhours (-0.03% since opening bell)

LULU — previous close 82.44, open 83.24; 82.13 afterhours (-1.3% since opening bell)

APC — previous close 81.30; open 81.15; not a buy (dropped to 80.96 in afterhours)

AMZN — previous close 187.76; open 187.55; not a buy (dropped to 186.31 afterhours)

EGPT — previous close 18.99; open 19.00; not a buy (18.73 afterhours)

OPEN — previous close 92.89; open 92.52; not a buy (89.96 afterhours)

So, the only two buys based on the candlestick approach would've been SLV and TBT. The best performers were SLV and SBUX. Aside from theory, I actually did open a position in SLV, still holding here.


Update, 2:49 pm (Hawaii). Some charts of SLV. First, a one-year chart with comparison to GLD, AAPL and the S&P 500. Then a two-day chart. Note: there are some concerns that short attacks may arrive next week. I may still unload my position in the next 10 minutes before the AH session closes. 

World Cup Wednesday

Dow Jones 10,434.17 +24.71 +0.24%
NASDAQ 2,307.16 +1.23 +0.05%
S&P 500 1,116.04 +1.43 +0.13%

Anyone like soccer? I have no idea who's going to win the World Cup. It's entertaining to a point, but like those weird kazoo noisemakers that are so popular in South Africa, it will soon pass.

The market was relatively narrow today for the most part. I slept halfway through, strangely not disappointed to see AAPL continue its climb while I watch from the bleachers. Though Apple continues to amaze and I have my doubts about this propped-up market, there are some interesting twists and turns coming as a result of BP's doomsday disaster.

CNOOC (CEO) is a Chinese energy play that I enjoyed watching two, three years ago, but never traded. It remains in a role of little brother to Goliath PetroChina (PTR) in that part of the world known as the Middle Kingdom.

What's interesting about CNOOC now is that it could be in acquisitive mode now that BP is in deep-shit territory. If BP is forced to unload property to raise cash, CNOOC will be ready and willing, according to this story. This is far from breaking news; CEO was at a low of 152 nine days ago and closed today at 173.

Yup, I hear ya. Holy crap.

It's BP's other wells that CNOOC is interested in. It's like breaking up the Yankees, basically. Most major-league teams would be happy to snag A-Rod or Mariano Rivera or Derek Jeter or ... especially at a discount. That makes CEO an interesting watch. I'm not entertaining any notions of buying it here at 173 — already at a 14% gain since June 8. But I'm keeping an eye on it. CEO was listed as a "Buy If" by American Bulls on the candlestick chart reading coming into today's session. With a fractional drop today, CEO is probably still in a near-breakout level.

The market rallied into the close on low volume again, though AAPL had plenty of trading and closed at 271.91 (+1.74%). Shares hit a high of 272.90 early, but dipped below 270 by the end of the first hour of trading. After a rally back near 272, shares fell to 270 before rallying in the final half hour. That kept VXX below 26.00 for the day; it broke above that level briefly before AAPL mounted that late comeback.

US FINANCIALS
Flat, flat, flat. GS up 0.19% to 137.32. C down 0.75% to 3.96. FAZ, the inverse ultra-short ETF, gained just 0.42%.

EURO
STD, which fell flat on its face yesterday, gained 2.45% to 11.27 today. Such a nice move lately after dipping below 10 in recent weeks. There's a lot of confidence in Santander despite mediocre jobs numbers in Espanol. Other Euro banks did not so well. IRE fell 0.96% to 4.14 and NBG dropped 0.81% to 2.45.

The euro (FXE) rose 0.71% to 123.49 while the dollar (UUP) slipped 0.60% to 24.95.

SAFE PLAYS
GLD gained 1.3% to 121.90 and TLT (20-year Treasurys ETF) picked up 0.81% to 97.85.

TECH/INTERNET KINGS
AAPL finished up 1.71% to 271.82 and GOOG was flat (500.08 -0.24%). BIDU lost 3.13% to 72.47

RETAIL/ENTERTAINMENT
NFLX gained 0.91% to 125.80 while CSTR fell 2.32% to 51.29. The momo is gone for CSTR, which rose yesterday on news of a deal with Paramount for early releases of DVDs. CSTR lost almost all its gain intraday yesterday and continues to sell. Below 50 might warrant a closer look.

ENERGY
While BP lost just 0.44% to 31.71, USO (oil ETF) dropped nearly 1% to 35.14, halting a significant run lately.

The Nat Gas sector got hammered for a second day in a row, but gains since Obama's clean energy speech remain massive. UNG bucked the trend and closed at 8.74, a gain of 2.83%. WPRT (18.98 -1.15%) and CLNE (17.28 -1.43%) declined, as did 32 of the 40 on my Natty Gassers list.

WPRT paces that list with a gain of 29.3% in the past two weeks. PQ is up 28.8% and PETD is up 25.1%.

HEAVY METAL
FCX lost 1.82% and FXI dropped 1.17% as copper took a hit. US Steel (X) remained turbulent, losing 2.67% to 44.10. SLV gained nicely (1.38%) to 18.33.

A whole lotta shakin' for whole lotta nothin'

Dow Jones 10,409.46 +4.69 +0.05%
NASDAQ 2,305.93 +0.05 +0.00%
S&P 500 1,114.61 -0.62 -0.06%

I never did get to bed. Napped at the desk and stayed out of this kooky market. Hard to see how or why AAPL has moved so much the past few sessions, but maybe ... well, more on that later.

Not a whole lot to say about today. Most stocks swayed and swirled, but not in a way that got anyone nauseous. Maybe everybody was watching Congress grill BP's Tony Hayward. Or smart traders are enjoying summer vacation.

EURO
FXE was up for much of the session before closing at 122.64 (-0.35%) while UUP (25.10, +0.32%) is slightly up. The Spaniards upped the ante on the Germans, but it was Spain that buckled. EWP (Spain ETF) fell 1.12% to 35.33 and STD dropped 1.79% to 10.99.

FINANCIALS
GS barely finished higher (137.13 +0.17%) while C dropped 0.13% to 3.98. IRE (4.18 -3.02%) and NBG (2.47 -1.59%) pulled back from recent gains. I'm apathetic about this sector. Up, down, up, down ... sometimes because of news. Sometimes because of nothing. It's stupid so I steer clear.

TECH KINGS
AAPL zoomed 2.92% to 267.28, a gain of more than 7 bucks on decent volume. Is there really a difference in Apple since two or three weeks one week ago, when AAPL hovered at 242? Not really. Sure, iPhone G4 demand is huge, but is that really a surprise? Could be that hedge funds and mutuals are piling back in before Q2 ends at the end of this month. That's two weeks away! I'm staying out and waiting for yet another pullback.

GOOG closed up just a hair to 501.34. Much as I like the future for Google, 500 is definitely a psychological barrier. I still prefer GOOG below 490, but I'll buy AAPL before GOOG.

NFLX rose again, nearly 1% to 124.67. CSTR gave up practically all its early gain and closed at 52.51, just .02% higher. The news about the new-release deal with Paramount pushed CSTR shares up to 54.76, but this week's rally turned buyers into sellers by this afternoon. I like CSTR for the time being as a short-term trade. Might get in below 50. Or not.

SAFE PLAYS
GLD closed down a skosh at 120.33, TLT was up a hair to 97.06 ... I hesitate to call copper king FCX a safe play given China's cautious approach to growth. FCX was down just a tiny bit to 67.03 and US Steel (X) dropped 1.31% to 45.33.

ENERGY
BP gained after its chairman and CEO met with Obama. BP closed at 31.85 (+1.43%) on the news that it will suspend its dividend payout and set up a $20 billion fund for Gulf businesses destroyed by the oil "volcano."

The oil sector was up slightly, but it has traded quite well in spite of BP. The inverse ETN for oil, SCO, dropped nearly 2%.

Natural gas started horribly, rallied, and folded by the close. Only 12 of my Nat Gas 40 finished positive today, not too bad considering the rampage the sector had been running since Obama's clean energy speech nearly two weeks ago. MMR finished up 3.75% to 12.44 after leading the group most of the day. KOG, REXX and FTK were also top gainers. Two of my favorites, CLNE and WPRT, finished in the red. CLNE dropped 3.49% to 17.54 and WPRT fell 1.13% to 19.19.

I like WPRT below 19 and had my chance in the morning, but the market was underwater at the time and I decided to play it safe. I like WPRT's balance sheet a lot. Don't really like CLNE's numbers, but as a clean energy play, CLNE is almost as intriguing as WPRT. I'm sure value investors might agree partway on WPRT, probably more so when it was trading at 3 bucks in March of last year. At these levels, it's still reasonably attractive, but I'll be choosy about my price. Haggling is good.

Nat Gas is one of the best sectors to trade and/or follow now that it has an edge of sorts (Obama's verbal backing and nothing more yet) and the world is sick and tired of crude oil's consequences. Whether Nat Gas as a sector is more of a market indicator now than it was last month, well, I wouldn't assume that. I do feel that it truly does give a fingerprint on the market's tone. Natty Gas is a fairly safe play even in the midst of speculation, oversupply and the emotional content of the broad market, i.e. Mother Earth bleeding into the Gulf 24/7.

Even with today's pullback in Nat Gas, five of my 40 are up at least 20% in two weeks, including WPRT (+30.7%). UNG, which was up to 8.83 two days ago, fulfilled my expectations since and closed today at 8.49 (-3.85%). Again, UNG is a buy below 8 and a sell above 8.50, or maybe it's more like a sell at 8.75 now. Higher highs, higher lows and the sector shows no signs of cooling off. I'd guess that Nat Gas will remain hot as long as we can all see that Gulf oil live video.

After that, who knows? I just want to be in the sector's top play rather than bet big on a skittish natty gasser penny when the ice starts to melt.

Horrid opening for Nat Gas

No surprise here that Nat Gas is selling off as a sector after HUGE gains in the past 12 sessions since Obama's clean energy speech. My list of 40 has only one natty gasser in the green: HGT (21.77 +0.83%). The rest are in the red as traders take their profits rather than hang on in a negative market so far.

Here's my little theory: Goldman Sachs propped up the market to get its CBOE IPO off the ground yesterday, launching it way, way up. Now that CBOE's launch is done, GS is getting out of a number of stocks, including those in the Nat Gas industry. Right on cue, with so little conviction (volume) in the market on Monday and Tuesday, it's not taking very much selling to see stocks tumble. (This isn't any claim to a perfect theory; GS has a total of four IPOs this week, so a big, long dump of stocks isn't to its advantage.)

WPRT is down 1.96% to 19.08 after hitting a low of 18.61. CLNE is down 2.72% to 17.67. UNG down 2.27% to 8.63. Overbought conditions all around are hitting this sector as hard as expected.

AAPL, though, is bucking the trend, up 1.15% to 262.67. GOOG is barely positive and NFLX is up 1.24% to 125.10 after yesterday's down action. Netflix is probably benefiting from Coinstar's news. CSTR's Redbox has a new deal with Paramount to issue new releases. With Blockbuster on the verge of bankruptcy, its new-release deal with the industry is pointless and Coinstar picks up the deals now. CSTR is up 3.14% to 54.15, off its high of 54.76. Recent high was 57-plus.

CSTR would make an intriguing catalyst trade on a neutral or bullish day. Not so sure about trying it in this climate.

Just about everything else I'm watching is flat or negative except for a couple of pennies: the aforementioned BBI (0.27 +11.44%) and HAUP (2.51 +3.72%).

Financials are wobbly, as expected. STD is down 2.77% (10.87) and the euro is down 0.36% to 122.62 as Spain issued a challenge to Germany yesterday, asking for stress tests on Euro banks.