Tale of two tittilators

2:54 am (Hawaii) There's GSVC, which has a penny-stock vibe, and then there's AGQ. GSVC, which I delved into a few days ago after it rocketed for a second time in two weeks (from 10 to 16), closed yesterday at 18.02. That's freaking remarkable considering the indices were all down big and breadth was bloody red. With just 3.34 million outstanding shares and a recent deal with ex-Facebook employees to buy a total of 225,000 shares (at $29.28 per), GSVC has some serious sex appeal to traders. Never mind that its sliver of the Facebook valuation pie ($70 billion? $210 billion) is relatively small.

I just wouldn't want to be offline when the stock sells off hard for the second time. The first time, in June, it went from 14 to 10 over the course of three weeks. That was when volume was miniscule.

Now, with all-time volume numbers, and especially with shorts out of the mess, GSVC will find its place in the sun. On Friday, I had hoped for a moderate pullback to 15.55. That never came, not that I was looking yesterday amidst the bloodbath.

Then there's AGQ, which sold off hard not because silver has suddenly become a crap piece of metal. No, no, no. Demand is still strong, supply is still rather weak and the dollar is still near lows. But the puppet masters will have their way, as they did in taking AGQ to the woodshed yesterday. I got out near the low, not willing to risk potential clubbing to the cranium. It closed at 175 yesterday and is now at 167 today in premarket. This is why I got out of this small position with a moderate ($300) loss: Better to cut losses small and go back in if and when the coast is clear. Not when the coast has deadly, rampaging waves and the tide will swallow any ship and spit it back out in splinters.

Gold is hanging in there, now 1549 after a serious dip earlier today. Silver is at the mercy of the CME mafia, down to 35.31. Now that I'm out of AGQ, and now that the latest silver run is done — I missed plenty of chances to ride AGQ and EXK last week — I can put more focus on keeping powder dry and acquiring more physical when the price is right.

For now, with 25 minutes left before the opening bell, 26% of my Metals list is green, 25% neutral and 49% red. The bottom dwellers are GPL (-4.1%), AGQ (-3%), AG (-2.4%), SVM (-1.9%), EXK (-1.4%), SLV (-1.3%).

At the top are ZSL (+2.6%), GLL (+1.1%), DZZ (+0.9%). That's pretty weak stuff for the leaders. With LNKD, AAPL and other stocks showing flat to slightly up gains so far, it looks like the market might stave off another significant selloff today. There's no catalyst in the near future bar the typical Euro crisis stuff. CNBC keeps trumpeting the possibility of strong earnings reports beginning next week, but that's all based off lowered expectations anyway.

My Regular watch list is 28% green, 20% neutral, 52% red. CLNE is ripping higher (+11.7%) with RBY (+5.6%), TVIX (+4.9%), VXX (+2.8%), EDZ (+2.5%), MWW (+2%), TZA (+1.7%), DG (+1.6%). NFLX (+1.7%) is at 292.47.

FAZ, at 46.90 (+1.1%) is still strong. Guess I should've trusted my gut before selling on Friday. I lived to fight another day, at least.

Is the coast clear yet?

Denise Milani

7:35 am (Hawaii) Apparently so. The Fed's minutes are generically status quo. I saw SLV explode from 44.20 (pre-minutes) to 44.85 or so with seven or eight minutes. During that time, when SLV pulled back, I kept thinking 44.24 as an entry point, which is precisely where it came back to. (Why 44.24? I did quick math in my head and a Fibonacci retrace of 38.2% of the gain between 44.20 and 44.85 was roughly 44.24.) But I didn't pull the trigger. And of course, SLV ran back up and continued to 44.85. I eventually entered at 44.75 and sat through a dip below 44.50. SLV now at 44.90 (HOD 44.99).

Yup, Spot Silver is benefiting and GLD is up, too (+1.1% to 147.96).

Bernankepalooza has made happy traders of bulls, not so much of bears. The market's response has been lukewarm. 54% of my watch list is green, but of the winners, they're big winners. RLOC (+31.3% to 23.63), EXK (+6% to 11.31), AMZN (+5.9% to 193.29), SLW (+4.2% to 40.83), CLNE (+4% to 17.07), PSLV (+4% to 20.97), ACQ (+3.7% to 330.22).

Yep, the miners are finally coming home to roost. PAAS and PHYS are also up. AAPL is still down for the day, while X (-4.3%), AMRN (-3.4%), WNR (-2.7%) and RIG (-2.6%) are plodding.

It would be a shock to the market if Big Ben said anything beyond what the minutes offered. Nothing is guaranteed. It's a 90% lock he'll be neutral and stick to the minutes script. That 10% is, of course, spooky for newly minted bulls.

Silver train

Update 9:29 am (Hawaii) As expected, Bernankepalooza went without a hitch. Big Ben assured planet earth that there's no real inflation, all systems are status quo/go and the market responded as such. Spot Silver and silver plays fluctuated during the 40-minute speech, but with the coast very clear now, it is trading at 47.72. SLV has been racing higher, giving back, racing higher, giving back and is now at 46.78, right about its HOD. YES, SLV is trading higher than the -2.5% conversion to Spot, but I'm not complaining.

The only thing that remains close to a 90% guess is that BM/JPM will not issue a bear raid for now. As in the next hour. After that, who knows...

Update 10:06 am (Hawaii) Still 32% cash in my little roll. SLV hit a high of 47.15, currently 46.91 after hours. Might deploy some cash into AGQ (ultra silver ETF) and/or SLW. If there ever was a green light for Spot Silver, now would be the time. I'm 99% positive Asia will push Spot (currently 48.04) higher. What happens after Asia closes and New York opens at 7:30 am Eastern, that's another scenario.

SLV just dropped from 46.85-46.90 to 46.65. Never a dull moment.

Silver with attitude

Update 2:56 pm (Hawaii) Not feeling incredibly confident at this point, but I made the decision and there's nothing that can be done. I'm sticking with my position in SLV overnight, which means 1) Hong Kong could buy it up like crazy, and so far Spot Silver is up to 48.40 in the first 30 minutes or so of trading there, and 2) New York could take Spot tomorrow morning and mutilate it. Odds are in favor of a rise overseas, but I'm not comfortable. I could've sold afterhours for a tidy profit; at SLV's high of 47.56, I could've banked roughly 2.80 in profit. Instead, it's time to let a winner run. In fact, I almost opened a second position in AGQ, which went from 358 during the doldrums of afterhours trading to 370. A small position would've been a nice trade. But I stayed put. 

Busy afternoon and evening ahead, so I won't be able to watch Spot run. Just as well. Nothing I can do about it until 2 am Hawaii time. My leanings and beliefs are only stronger because of the wealth of knowledge out there regarding Spot Silver, SLV (always iffy), the Fed, Spot Gold, etc. This trader is in need of some stress relief, like exercise. A long walk. 

Hong Kong

Dressing up

12 pm (Hawaii) So is this it? Has the end-of-month/end-of-quarter window dressing begun? When I hit the sack around 5 or 6 am Hawaii time (noonish Eastern), it seemed the market was going to drift in small currents forever. Of course, nothing stays the same in the market for long. The market went bozo bullish as I slept, sending 75% of my watch list to the green side after being inept earlier.

DJIA 12,279 (+0.67%), Nasdaq 2,756 (+0.96%), S&P 500 1,319 (+0.71%). Again, volume wasn't impressive, but it was about 20% higher in the "axis" of stocks, AAPL. Monday was a low in volume for the year. Tuesday saw more action. Wednesday is the 30th of March and Thursday is the end of the month. I'd say odds are 70% that window dressing has begun. By that math, the edge is 40% (70 vs. 30), but am I willing to indulge myself with 40% of my roll in play? Or to be risk-addicted about it, place some bets that allow for 40% swing down? Yes to the former and no the latter. We're still somewhat toppy here and the chances of a) a selloff after window dressing and b) negative news about QE3 would easily send the market down the mountain like a wild eagle pushing goats off the ledge.

For now, however, just about everything finished green today, and big on the win side. WNR gained 1.9% to 17.10 after being in red early. Le Fly wins again on his call for oil refiners to slice through any market turmoil. He's right.

AAPL, which sold off to a hair above 346 early, is at 351.30 in afterhours trading. My position in AAPL at the end of last week was opened at 346.75 and I sold at 350.65, which clearly is a range within the larger range (326 to 365). There are too many AAPL bulls who want this stock to lift, for the PE to hit 25 or 27 or 30, and that would be fair. But with the slowdown due to Japan's tragedy, I really don't see any eye-popping sales numbers in the near term. Demand huge, but customers will have to wait. AAPL will be fine long term, but it just won't hit 400 as soon as I or anyone else had expected.

This is not a bad thing. I could buy at 345 (mid-point of the larger range) and sell at 350 over and over again without extreme concern over risk. I didn't do it today, but it's there. What other stock are you going to ride as comfortably? CHGS? LULU?

CHGS 3.54 (+20.4%), MCP 60.10 (+8.3%), CLNE 15.20 (+4.8%), LULU 89.37 (4.8%), CMG 268.00 (+3.9%), RLOC 20.55 (+3.2%), VLO 30.50 (+3.2%), AMZN 174.62 (+3.1%), EXK 9.28 (+3.1%), YZC 34.50 (+2.9%). It goes on and on. Huge gains for momo stocks. Silver plays. Even coal (YZC). China is in heat. US stocks hot, and that's with crude oil up. UCO is at 54.78 (+1.7%).

It almost didn't matter what people bought today. The bull gored every bear in sight. Big losers on my watch list were TVIX 37.49 (-5.5%), EDZ 19.12 (-3.3%), DG 30.52 (-3.1%), TZA 36.84 (-3%), VXX 29.95 (2.7%), QID 51.65 (-1.9%). Also OPEN 102.90 (-1.3%). OPEN's huge run had to stop for a breather at some point.

I wouldn't be shocked if the market reverses before tomorrow's opening bell. There's still time for hedgies to take it down fast and still re-enter before the end of the month. Unlikely, but entirely possible. I'll be waiting for a unlikely discount on my favorite plays with 100% loaded gunpowder.

Barely up?

(8:49 am, Hawaii) Just back from some early-morning work and didn't log onto the world wide web until now. Though the indices are barely positive, commodities are roaring. Silver is sky high. I see SLW up massively (+5.3%) to 44.75. SLV is up 2.4% to 36.38. EXK is at 9.90 (+4.3%). Silver plays all show fair volume with more than an hour left in the session.

Crude oil spike is making happy shareholders of WNR (+5.8% to 16.89) and UCO (+1.5%). CLNE is at the top, up 6.7%. Meanwhile, the indices are all 0.6% up or less. So what gives? With volume at this level, it's not like Monday's soft turnaround. Traders are getting braver, following the money trail. POMO, QE2 ... they're kicking in big while Japan, Libya, Bahrain, Yemen, Portugal, Ireland all give no sign of the "all clear."

So, while precious and industrial metals gain (X is up 2.3%, FCX +5.2%), momo plays like BIDU (+5.1%) and NFLX (+3.8%) are rolling. OPEN is up 2.1% to 94.58. Amazing. LULU, my favorite tell as a momo indicator, is up 3% to 79.51. Funny money rules once again!

While 68% of my watch list is green, there are some red duds. AAPL has fluctuated between 335.95 and 339+ today, currently 339.11 (-0.6%). EGPT is down 8.3%. TVIX (-7.1%) and VXX (-3.6%) are near the bottom. So are EDZ (-4.1%) and PSUN (-3.5%). Everything else red is mostly fractionally negative.

Still 100% cash here. Hindsight: A position in WNR would've been prudent for the past week. Of all the stocks tumbling or gaining since the disaster in Japan, WNR was and still is a winner in most future scenarios as an oil refiner. I sold SLW and EXK recently, taking small losses while both consolidated near new highs. I sold EXK at 8.55, a small position, but didn't have the conviction to hold.

Watching here. Market is still on thin ice, and as more skaters approach, the breaking point nears.

Frazzled Friday

Dow Jones 10,143.81 -8.99 -0.09%
NASDAQ 2,223.48 +3.07 +0.29%
S&P 500 1,076.76 +3.07 +0.29%

Reform is good, but it is no cure and it clearly isn't the catalyst in itself. Today's session was in the green most of the way, but sold off toward the close and essentially closed flat. Sectors that benefited from today's final financial reform bill work on Capitol Hill were (of course) financials and, you guessed it, Chinese energy.

FINANCIALS
Goldman Sachs gained 4.68% to 139.66, capping a nice move from 133 earlier in the week. The intraday high was 140.90. Citigroup closed at 3.94 (+4.23%) after a spooky descent the past few days.

Big winners were buyers of FAS (22.80 +7.17%).

EURO ZONE
FXE traded up (123.44 +0.47%) while the US Dollar (UUP) lost 0.56% (24.83).

Euro banks benefited from the finreg bill. Banco Santander, like their successful national team, finished up (11.05 +1.66%). IRE (3.70 +1.93%) also rose, though NBG fell (2.25 -1.32%).

CHINA ENERGY
With BP selling off chunks of fine, moneymaking operations, entities like CNOOC (CEO) are swooping in. CEO gained 1.93% to 175.24 while PetroChina (PTR) moved up 0.50% to 115.10.

Chinese solar plays are hot again, probably new festering ground for traders who banked big gains in US natural gas stocks the past few weeks. Trina Solar (TSL) had a big bump of 4.09% to 18.33 after landing a deal with the University of Queensland (Australia).

Yingli Green Energy (YGE) gained 3.89% to 10.68, riding the sector's momentum.

US ENERGY
The rise of crude oil to $78/barrel is helping solar plays back in the US. First Solar (FSLR) picked up 2.04% to 119.26. Solar is still "expensive" in the sense that it can't survive without federal subsidies for the most part. Solar will climb as crude prices rise. As usual.

Nat Gas had its best day in about a week, reviving in a big way. My list of 40 natty gassers gained a cumulative 2.12%. NGS was the biggest gainer (+7.65% to 16.74) and HERO (2.80 +5.66%) was second.

Two of my favorites, WPRT (16.70 +1.83%) and CLNE (15.97 +3.9%) did fine. So did another play I like, HGT (20.59 +3.05%).

The natty gasser with the biggest gain since Obama's speech is PETD (26.99 +29.57%).

As for oil, BP resumed its tumultuous descent, losing 5.98% to 26.92. Again, the sector traded well, having pruned BP from its collective sentiment. US Oil Fund (ETF) gained 3.69% to 35.66.

SAFE PLAYS
GLD gained 1.2% to 122.90 and TLT was slightly up (99.05 +0.41%).

CHINA & HEAVY METAL
FXI gained 1.01% to 41.18. Copper did well; FCX rocketed 4.93% to 66.57. US Steel rose 2.83% to 43.24. Metals have been so productive lately that the relative volatility shouldn't have scared me away.

TECH KINGS
Hibernation time for AAPL longs. Shares sold off again, as expected, losing 0.86% to 266.70. I'm waiting for a chance to snare shares at 260 or maybe 250.

GOOG lost 0.51% to 472.68. Another buying opportunity may be nearing, though I'm not in a rush. Even with AdMob and Android, GOOG is not as appealing to me as AAPL.

BIDU gained 3.12% to 76.10, arguably the best mover in the sector. They have no real competition in China. Big Brother is on its side. Baidu will not be beaten.

All in all, still 100% cash and no plans to change as the weekend begins. Just a few more days before Q2 ends, so window dressing may be in store as fund managers trample over each other to establish positions. Or not. If the market has another crash soon, I'll be ready.

What's hot, what's not

A candlestick update from American Bulls.

AAPL (270.97): "Sell Confirmed"
BIDU (76.19): "Buy If"
C (3.89): "Sell Confirmed"
CLNE (16.17): "Wait"
FAZ (15.05): "Hold"
FCX (65.06): "Hold"
FXE (122.69): "Buy If"
FXI (41.26): "Hold"
GLD (120.95): "Hold"
GLDD (6.14): "Wait"
GOOG (482.05): "Hold"
GS (135.07): "Wait"
LVS (27.04): "Hold"
PKX (105.14): "Sell If"
SBUX (27.32): "Buy If"
SCO (15.06): "Hold"
SD (6.25): "Wait"
SLV (18.18): "Buy If"
STD (11.30): "Buy If"
TLT (99.24): "Hold"
UUP (24.97): "Sell If"
VXX (26.71): "Sell If"
WPRT (17.05): "Wait"
X (44.06): "Buy If"

Flatulent Friday: Are we toppy now?

Dow Jones 10,450.64 +16.47 +0.16%
NASDAQ 2,309.80 +2.64 +0.11%
S&P 500 1,117.51 +1.47 +0.13%

Between quad witching and the overwhelming emotional baggage of 1) BP's Gulf oil disaster, 2) Euro percolation, 3) renewed fears of US housing/jobs/financials fuck ups, 4) China inflation, 5) North Korean shitstinkery and more, the market simply seemed exhausted by today. What little buying there was surely was limited to a minority of issues like AAPL, which closed at an all-time high of 274.07 on 30 million shares traded — roughly 25% more volume than usual.

While there wasn't a whole lot of buying pressure, there was even less selling pressure. There are all kinds of reasons for this, but the main one is simple: With $27 billion outflowing from the market so far this year, it's all been reduced to trading desks, high-frequency trading machines and day traders. No blame to go around from this little tower. We wanted to eat the forbidden fruit of market capitalism, and the food chain developed instantly. Whether it's algorithms or the invention of the wheel, whoever capitalizes on new technology will usually win while the remaining masses howl with fever over disadvantage and conspiracy.

I could easily complain, but I'd rather just get a good night's sleep, wake up at a nice hour like 6 or 8 am Hawaii time, and observe. So I missed a chance to re-enter my beloved AAPL. So what. I'll get another chance sooner rather than later. AAPL run-ups are often met with ridiculously steep sell-offs, or simply continue running, especially after a few weeks of consolidation. It won't bother me to ride AAPL from 280 to 300 at all. If I can get in at 250 next week, better yet.

But this is the world we live in, when a single currency has markets fretting, and Earth's greatest tech retailer ever can be practically felled in one swoop (from 200 to 78 not so long ago) because of a housing/financial crisis.

For the record, the eight stocks I'm watching closely were mostly in the red today.

Up:
• AAPL 274.07 (+0.81%)
• SD 6.86 (+1.78%)

Down:
• CLNE 17.15 (-0.81%)
• CSTR 48.95 (-4.56%)
• GLDD 5.34 (-0.78%)
• TGP 30.03 (-0.07%)
• UNG 8.53 (-2.29%)
• WPRT 18.62 (-2%)

I'm still 100% cash, waiting for the market to settle down (which it has) and provide a clue about direction (which it hasn't).

TECH KINGS

AAPL was at 242 last week Wednesday. This feels like the consolidation months back when shares drifted between 195 and 215 before popping on what became a two-month odyssey that topped out at 272 on that climatic earnings day. Love Apple or not, the iPad and iPhone G4 are ruling the geek universe and the normal world simultaneously.

Next week is a liftoff to 300 or it pulls back to 255, maybe 250. How many stocks keep revving higher in a flat market, seven sessions in a row? I can think of one.

FINANCIALS
GS (137.82 +0.63%) and C (4.01 +1.26%) didn't move as much as their Euro counterparts. I still don't like finnies long term. Too many damned questions.

EURO

FXE was basically flat (123.36 -0.11%) while STD (11.53 +2.31%) lost roughly half of its early gain. Those boys at Banco Santander have balls of steel, calling out the Eurozone (Germany, in particular) by demanding stress tests, then grading out No. 1 in leaked reports. Then STD turns out to be a bullish buyer on both sides of the Atlantic. If Santander were a sports team, I'd be a fan. They take care of their shit.

IRE moved up big, 3.86% to 4.30. NBG lost 1.63% to 2.41, but I have no desire to touch any Greek stocks. Ever.

HEAVY METALS
FCX was flat (65.90 +0.14%) and FXI was equally quiet (40.66 +0.10%). US Steel (X) lost 1.56% to 43.41, ending a very turbulent week with ups and downs. SLV moved up again (18.75 +2.29%).

SAFE PLAYS

GLD up again (122.83 +0.76%) and gets a lot of headlines for all-time highs in the metal, but really ... so what? Sure, it gains quite a bit from a 2- or 3-year perspective, or a 5- or 10-year perspective. It's a hedge against inflation, against dwindling currencies ... and unless you hoard bars of the pretty yellow metal, your paper ownership can be "confiscated" by Uncle Sam in times of dire need.

I like gold/GLD as a small piece of the portfolio, nothing more.

TLT also flat today (97.69 -0.16%).

ENERGY
USO up 0.77% to 35.41. BP had another "boring" day with a 0.16% gain to 31.76. All BP shareholders are hoping for plenty of these quiet days.

My Nat Gas 40, a collection of the first 40 sector plays I found on the day of Obama's clean energy speech (15 days ago), was up 0.02% today. As a whole, the 40 are up 12.19%, staying flat the past few days.

Bronco Drilling (BRNC) had a massive gain of 9.84% to 4.24 today and is now up 21.8% since Obama's talk. PQ (+4%), PETD (+3.15%), NGS (+2.57%), GDP (+2.48%) also had nice moves today. In all, 18 of the 40 were in the green today.

My favorite natty gassers, WPRT (18.62 -2%) and CLNE (17.15 -0.81%) were down. UNG sold off 2.29% to 8.53. It remains a buy below 8.00 and a sell above 8.75. It's one of those notorious plays that traders love and investors hated and still hate due to its incredible lack of strength. At this level, though, it's playing fair. It just trades so freaky compared to the sector so often. It'll gain massively while the entire sector is in the red that day. Then it'll tank as high fliers with tiny floats move up, up, up.

Overall, however, this is probably as stable as the industry has been in the market for some time. All because of BP, and all because of Obama, who reiterated his stance on clean energy earlier in the week. That staved off what would've been inevitable mass selling after several natty gassers hit 20%-plus gains in less than two weeks.

Eventually, though, the sector needs another catalyst. Obama can stoke the fire only so many times. The industry needs some real roots into America's energy grid. Question is when.

Happy Father's Day weekend, everybody. Aloha!

Options madness is over ... is this market finally topping out?

World Cup Wednesday

Dow Jones 10,434.17 +24.71 +0.24%
NASDAQ 2,307.16 +1.23 +0.05%
S&P 500 1,116.04 +1.43 +0.13%

Anyone like soccer? I have no idea who's going to win the World Cup. It's entertaining to a point, but like those weird kazoo noisemakers that are so popular in South Africa, it will soon pass.

The market was relatively narrow today for the most part. I slept halfway through, strangely not disappointed to see AAPL continue its climb while I watch from the bleachers. Though Apple continues to amaze and I have my doubts about this propped-up market, there are some interesting twists and turns coming as a result of BP's doomsday disaster.

CNOOC (CEO) is a Chinese energy play that I enjoyed watching two, three years ago, but never traded. It remains in a role of little brother to Goliath PetroChina (PTR) in that part of the world known as the Middle Kingdom.

What's interesting about CNOOC now is that it could be in acquisitive mode now that BP is in deep-shit territory. If BP is forced to unload property to raise cash, CNOOC will be ready and willing, according to this story. This is far from breaking news; CEO was at a low of 152 nine days ago and closed today at 173.

Yup, I hear ya. Holy crap.

It's BP's other wells that CNOOC is interested in. It's like breaking up the Yankees, basically. Most major-league teams would be happy to snag A-Rod or Mariano Rivera or Derek Jeter or ... especially at a discount. That makes CEO an interesting watch. I'm not entertaining any notions of buying it here at 173 — already at a 14% gain since June 8. But I'm keeping an eye on it. CEO was listed as a "Buy If" by American Bulls on the candlestick chart reading coming into today's session. With a fractional drop today, CEO is probably still in a near-breakout level.

The market rallied into the close on low volume again, though AAPL had plenty of trading and closed at 271.91 (+1.74%). Shares hit a high of 272.90 early, but dipped below 270 by the end of the first hour of trading. After a rally back near 272, shares fell to 270 before rallying in the final half hour. That kept VXX below 26.00 for the day; it broke above that level briefly before AAPL mounted that late comeback.

US FINANCIALS
Flat, flat, flat. GS up 0.19% to 137.32. C down 0.75% to 3.96. FAZ, the inverse ultra-short ETF, gained just 0.42%.

EURO
STD, which fell flat on its face yesterday, gained 2.45% to 11.27 today. Such a nice move lately after dipping below 10 in recent weeks. There's a lot of confidence in Santander despite mediocre jobs numbers in Espanol. Other Euro banks did not so well. IRE fell 0.96% to 4.14 and NBG dropped 0.81% to 2.45.

The euro (FXE) rose 0.71% to 123.49 while the dollar (UUP) slipped 0.60% to 24.95.

SAFE PLAYS
GLD gained 1.3% to 121.90 and TLT (20-year Treasurys ETF) picked up 0.81% to 97.85.

TECH/INTERNET KINGS
AAPL finished up 1.71% to 271.82 and GOOG was flat (500.08 -0.24%). BIDU lost 3.13% to 72.47

RETAIL/ENTERTAINMENT
NFLX gained 0.91% to 125.80 while CSTR fell 2.32% to 51.29. The momo is gone for CSTR, which rose yesterday on news of a deal with Paramount for early releases of DVDs. CSTR lost almost all its gain intraday yesterday and continues to sell. Below 50 might warrant a closer look.

ENERGY
While BP lost just 0.44% to 31.71, USO (oil ETF) dropped nearly 1% to 35.14, halting a significant run lately.

The Nat Gas sector got hammered for a second day in a row, but gains since Obama's clean energy speech remain massive. UNG bucked the trend and closed at 8.74, a gain of 2.83%. WPRT (18.98 -1.15%) and CLNE (17.28 -1.43%) declined, as did 32 of the 40 on my Natty Gassers list.

WPRT paces that list with a gain of 29.3% in the past two weeks. PQ is up 28.8% and PETD is up 25.1%.

HEAVY METAL
FCX lost 1.82% and FXI dropped 1.17% as copper took a hit. US Steel (X) remained turbulent, losing 2.67% to 44.10. SLV gained nicely (1.38%) to 18.33.

A whole lotta shakin' for whole lotta nothin'

Dow Jones 10,409.46 +4.69 +0.05%
NASDAQ 2,305.93 +0.05 +0.00%
S&P 500 1,114.61 -0.62 -0.06%

I never did get to bed. Napped at the desk and stayed out of this kooky market. Hard to see how or why AAPL has moved so much the past few sessions, but maybe ... well, more on that later.

Not a whole lot to say about today. Most stocks swayed and swirled, but not in a way that got anyone nauseous. Maybe everybody was watching Congress grill BP's Tony Hayward. Or smart traders are enjoying summer vacation.

EURO
FXE was up for much of the session before closing at 122.64 (-0.35%) while UUP (25.10, +0.32%) is slightly up. The Spaniards upped the ante on the Germans, but it was Spain that buckled. EWP (Spain ETF) fell 1.12% to 35.33 and STD dropped 1.79% to 10.99.

FINANCIALS
GS barely finished higher (137.13 +0.17%) while C dropped 0.13% to 3.98. IRE (4.18 -3.02%) and NBG (2.47 -1.59%) pulled back from recent gains. I'm apathetic about this sector. Up, down, up, down ... sometimes because of news. Sometimes because of nothing. It's stupid so I steer clear.

TECH KINGS
AAPL zoomed 2.92% to 267.28, a gain of more than 7 bucks on decent volume. Is there really a difference in Apple since two or three weeks one week ago, when AAPL hovered at 242? Not really. Sure, iPhone G4 demand is huge, but is that really a surprise? Could be that hedge funds and mutuals are piling back in before Q2 ends at the end of this month. That's two weeks away! I'm staying out and waiting for yet another pullback.

GOOG closed up just a hair to 501.34. Much as I like the future for Google, 500 is definitely a psychological barrier. I still prefer GOOG below 490, but I'll buy AAPL before GOOG.

NFLX rose again, nearly 1% to 124.67. CSTR gave up practically all its early gain and closed at 52.51, just .02% higher. The news about the new-release deal with Paramount pushed CSTR shares up to 54.76, but this week's rally turned buyers into sellers by this afternoon. I like CSTR for the time being as a short-term trade. Might get in below 50. Or not.

SAFE PLAYS
GLD closed down a skosh at 120.33, TLT was up a hair to 97.06 ... I hesitate to call copper king FCX a safe play given China's cautious approach to growth. FCX was down just a tiny bit to 67.03 and US Steel (X) dropped 1.31% to 45.33.

ENERGY
BP gained after its chairman and CEO met with Obama. BP closed at 31.85 (+1.43%) on the news that it will suspend its dividend payout and set up a $20 billion fund for Gulf businesses destroyed by the oil "volcano."

The oil sector was up slightly, but it has traded quite well in spite of BP. The inverse ETN for oil, SCO, dropped nearly 2%.

Natural gas started horribly, rallied, and folded by the close. Only 12 of my Nat Gas 40 finished positive today, not too bad considering the rampage the sector had been running since Obama's clean energy speech nearly two weeks ago. MMR finished up 3.75% to 12.44 after leading the group most of the day. KOG, REXX and FTK were also top gainers. Two of my favorites, CLNE and WPRT, finished in the red. CLNE dropped 3.49% to 17.54 and WPRT fell 1.13% to 19.19.

I like WPRT below 19 and had my chance in the morning, but the market was underwater at the time and I decided to play it safe. I like WPRT's balance sheet a lot. Don't really like CLNE's numbers, but as a clean energy play, CLNE is almost as intriguing as WPRT. I'm sure value investors might agree partway on WPRT, probably more so when it was trading at 3 bucks in March of last year. At these levels, it's still reasonably attractive, but I'll be choosy about my price. Haggling is good.

Nat Gas is one of the best sectors to trade and/or follow now that it has an edge of sorts (Obama's verbal backing and nothing more yet) and the world is sick and tired of crude oil's consequences. Whether Nat Gas as a sector is more of a market indicator now than it was last month, well, I wouldn't assume that. I do feel that it truly does give a fingerprint on the market's tone. Natty Gas is a fairly safe play even in the midst of speculation, oversupply and the emotional content of the broad market, i.e. Mother Earth bleeding into the Gulf 24/7.

Even with today's pullback in Nat Gas, five of my 40 are up at least 20% in two weeks, including WPRT (+30.7%). UNG, which was up to 8.83 two days ago, fulfilled my expectations since and closed today at 8.49 (-3.85%). Again, UNG is a buy below 8 and a sell above 8.50, or maybe it's more like a sell at 8.75 now. Higher highs, higher lows and the sector shows no signs of cooling off. I'd guess that Nat Gas will remain hot as long as we can all see that Gulf oil live video.

After that, who knows? I just want to be in the sector's top play rather than bet big on a skittish natty gasser penny when the ice starts to melt.

Nodding off, but Natty Gassers fueling up

Just as I got up from a sitting-up-at-my-desk nap, natural gas stocks are rallying. With the market climbing back to break-even levels, 21 of the 40 natty gassers on my list are in the green, a huge change from the one-hour point (an hour ago) when only three were green.

MMR dipped from a 5% gain down to a 3% pickup, but is now back to 5.67% ahead (12.67). CRZO is up 2.57% (20.76), but I still have my sights set on WPRT and CLNE.

Hitting the sack soon. Almost 6 am here in the islands. European markets close in 10 minutes, so I'll be watching closely. Might enter small, small positions in AAPL, WPRT and/or CSTR. If I go long, I'll hedge with FAZ or VXX.

Volume still too thin to take any direction seriously. Might be best to stay in 100% cash and fuggedaboudit.

Horrid opening for Nat Gas

No surprise here that Nat Gas is selling off as a sector after HUGE gains in the past 12 sessions since Obama's clean energy speech. My list of 40 has only one natty gasser in the green: HGT (21.77 +0.83%). The rest are in the red as traders take their profits rather than hang on in a negative market so far.

Here's my little theory: Goldman Sachs propped up the market to get its CBOE IPO off the ground yesterday, launching it way, way up. Now that CBOE's launch is done, GS is getting out of a number of stocks, including those in the Nat Gas industry. Right on cue, with so little conviction (volume) in the market on Monday and Tuesday, it's not taking very much selling to see stocks tumble. (This isn't any claim to a perfect theory; GS has a total of four IPOs this week, so a big, long dump of stocks isn't to its advantage.)

WPRT is down 1.96% to 19.08 after hitting a low of 18.61. CLNE is down 2.72% to 17.67. UNG down 2.27% to 8.63. Overbought conditions all around are hitting this sector as hard as expected.

AAPL, though, is bucking the trend, up 1.15% to 262.67. GOOG is barely positive and NFLX is up 1.24% to 125.10 after yesterday's down action. Netflix is probably benefiting from Coinstar's news. CSTR's Redbox has a new deal with Paramount to issue new releases. With Blockbuster on the verge of bankruptcy, its new-release deal with the industry is pointless and Coinstar picks up the deals now. CSTR is up 3.14% to 54.15, off its high of 54.76. Recent high was 57-plus.

CSTR would make an intriguing catalyst trade on a neutral or bullish day. Not so sure about trying it in this climate.

Just about everything else I'm watching is flat or negative except for a couple of pennies: the aforementioned BBI (0.27 +11.44%) and HAUP (2.51 +3.72%).

Financials are wobbly, as expected. STD is down 2.77% (10.87) and the euro is down 0.36% to 122.62 as Spain issued a challenge to Germany yesterday, asking for stress tests on Euro banks.

Nat Gas update: Short-term tipping point?

What goes up must come down unless it's March of 2009 or pre-Internet bubble bursting time. Bull runs can outlast even the most extravagant projections of uber-bulls and squash the testicles of the biggest bears. But last year's run was powered by the Fed stimulus program, among other free-now-but-punishing-to-all-later maneuvers.

For now, it's time to look at my Nat Gas 40. It's fun to see their gains, even if I have not a single position in any. Besides, things are just frothy enough here in the 12 days since Obama's clean energy speech (and his anti-BP chatter today) to possibly mark a short-term top in one of the hottest sectors.

These 40 natty gassers include today's closing price and the gain since Obama's speech 12 days ago, and the candlestick chart analysis. Interesting that the only two that got "Sell Confirmed" status today are among my least favorite issues. 

My Favorite 5:
CLNE 18.17 (+22.39%) — "Buy If" (American Bulls)
HGT 21.59 (+11.29%) — "Sell If" (American Bulls)
PSE 25.15 (+4.44%) — "Sell If" (American Bulls)
SWN 44.99 (+13.04%) — "Sell If" (American Bulls)
WPRT 19.42 (+32.2%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)

Natty Gassers I like, though they lack strong balance sheets:
BEXP 18.96 (+9.23%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
CHK 25.36 (+11.28%) — "Sell If" (American Bulls)
DIG (etf) 31.13 (+13.49%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
FCG (etf) 18.05 (+10.80%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
FST 32.19 (+18.26%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
HK 21.67 (+16.63%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
KOG 3.62 (+13.48%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
KWK 13.81 (+23.3%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
MMR 11.99 (+16.52%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
NBL 66.45 (+12.51%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
NFX 57.05 (+14.21%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
NGS 17.25 (+12.09%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
PETD 26.60 (+27.7%) — "Sell If" (American Bulls)
PQ 7.96 (+27.97%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
PVA 24.78 (+13.36%) — "Sell If" (American Bulls)
PXJ 15.93 (+11.01%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
REXX 11.97 (+15.88%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
ROSE 26.21 (+19.9%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
STR 49.88 (+13.16%) — "Sell If" (American Bulls)
TLM 17.78 (+5.52%) — "Buy If" (American Bulls)
UNG (etf) 8.83 (+17.89%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
UPL 50.04 (+1.73%) — "Buy If" (American Bulls)
XOP 44.15 (+8%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)

Several of these natty gassers are hot, but fundamentally are mediocre:
BRNC 4.00 (+14.94%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
COG 38.41 (+11.24%) — "Sell If" (American Bulls)
CRK 33.53 (+15.34%) — "Sell If" (American Bulls)
CRZO 20.24 (16.66%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
DPTR 1.16 (+2.65%) — "Sell Confirmed" (American Bulls)
FTK 1.44 (+8.27%) — "Sell If" (American Bulls)
GDP 15.29 (27.1%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
HERO 3.19 (+23.17%) — "Buy Confirmed" (American Bulls)
IEO 55.20 (+9.13%) — "Sell If" (American Bulls)
RRC 50.83 (+8.63%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
VNR 22.46 (+5.74) — "Sell If" (American Bulls)
XCO 18.88 (+8.07%) — "Hold" (American Bulls)
XTO 44.23 (+4.44%) — "Wait" (American Bulls)

Of the Nat Gas 40, only one was a "Buy Confirmed" today. Just three are on "Buy If" status.

On a neutral front, 22 are on "Hold" and only one is a "Wait".

12 are "Sell If" status and one was "Sell Confirmed" today.

Today may have been the tipping point for the sector in the near term. For short-term traders, it's time to start scaling out a bit. For long-term nat gas believers, no need to get out yet barring a broad market puke party. There's a nice climb ahead as long as A) Obama continues preaching to the choir of energy worriers and B) we have live video of Mother Earth's blood spewing out of the Gulf.

Stampede Tuesday

Dow Jones 10,404.77 +213.88 (+2.1%)
NASDAQ 2,305.88 +61.92 (+2.76%)
S&P 500 1,115.23 +25.60 (+2.35%)

Huge move today, and though volume is still tepid, it was bigger than yesterday. I'm not a believer in this rally, but there's no point to fighting momentum. Didn't the spring rally continue for months despite lame volume? There's money to be made in both directions.

ENERGY
Nat Gas extremely impressive today, even as BP rallied in the afternoon. Of the 40 natty gassers on my list, 39 finished positive. They averaged a 3.59% gain today, absolutely, undeniably hot. As a group, they have moved up 13.97% since Obama's clean energy speech 12 days ago.

WPRT (19.42), one of my five favorites, moved up 2.29% today — a bit soft compared to the sector — but is now up 32.2% since Obama's talk. Insanely bullish.

GDP (15.29) is up 27.1% during this span, including 4.01% today. KWK (13.81) is up 23.3% since Obama and HERO (3.19) is up 23.17%, including 13.12% today alone. Small floats and daytrading frenzy are factors here, which is why I'll try WPRT rather than HERO.

CLNE (18.17) is up 6.97% today and 22.39% since Obama. WPRT and CLNE are solid fundamentally and both are pure clean energy plays. Another reason to like.

UNG feels safe, but the move from 8 flat to 8.83 in the past week is amazing. UNG now up 17.89% since Obama, including 3.27% today.

BP gained 2.38% to 31.40 and USO is up 2.62% to 35.23. USO down to 34.66 in afterhours trading. SCO, the inverse oil ETN, dropped 4.62% as crude prices rose to $76/barrel.

IPO
CBOE is trading at 32.56 in afterhours, looking like the hottest initial public offering of the year. If Goldman Sachs is propping up the market to support the four IPOs it is unveiling this week, be careful once the propping is done. CBOE's 14% gain is great for the big boys, and they'll cash in while the rest of us think we're walking into a winner.

FINNIES
Speaking of GS, it gained 2.59% to 136.90. That made yesterday's buyers at 133-134 quite happy. C gained 2.84% to 3.99, and Euro banks also gained. STD (11.19 7.08%) has made a great move up since dropping below 10. IRE is up 6.42% to 4.31 and NBG is up 3.29% to 2.51.

FAS tore up 6.88% to 24.04. I still don't trust financials, but the volatility and high-percentage moves are making some fast money for fast traders. I wouldn't short finnies here, either. FAZ lost 6.74% to 14.27. There are numerous stories of an ominous future for finnies. They're not all fiction, no doubt, but as irrational exuberance returns to the market, traders don't care about tomorrow. They're banking on finnies and wild momo swings led by the high-frequency robots.

EURO
FXE (123.07) up almost 1% today while the dollar (UUP) dropped. FXI gained 2.29% to 41.03. Everything's headline-driven. Not my cup of tea, but watching these as indicators.

HEAVY METAL
FCX gained 2.74% to 67.05 and US Steel (X) rose 3.03% to 45.91. Wow. As China goes, so go copper and steel. SLV gained 1.85% to 18.19 for good measure.

NEW TECH
My favorite company, Apple, continues to rebound from last week's plunge to 242. AAPL closed near its high at 259.69, a gain of 2.13%. GOOG rose 3.06% to 497.99. I liked GOOG below 490, but didn't touch it.

NFLX, a wild gainer recently, pared back 2.61% to 123.50.

SAFE PLAYS
GLD climbed 1.16% to 120.99 and TLT dropped 0.41% to 96.51. A massive bull rally and TLT dropped fractionally. That's weird. Probably says something about the cautious nature of retail traders. Nobody wants to get burned by another Flash Crash or any kind of crash.

Can this rally run for two, three months like the previous run? Probably not. A lot of short leashes out there. Fear reigns, even in the bulls. But the shorts are clearly getting hammered lately.

Nat Gas

It's the mother lode. I'm not talking about the "volcano" BP unleashed in the Gulf. Natural Gas stocks are exploding today. My list of 40 are up a combined 2.45% and as a group they're now up more than 12% since Obama's clean energy talk nearly two weeks ago. This might be the best single-day gain (so far) I've seen with 39 of the 40 on my list in the green.

HERO is up more than 10%, CLNE, BRNC and KOG are up more than 5%. REXX and NGS up more than 4%. CLNE (Clean Energy) has gotten some nice pub on TV lately. I missed the boat on this move. Much as I like a few in this sector, I didn't take the ride even though nat gas is one of the few plays with some semblance of an edge in this environment.

The Notorious U.N.G. is up 1.6% to 8.69. Wow. Even Finerman on Fast Money said yesterday she opened a position.

Interesting that BP is actually up from its intraday low, trading at 31.90 (+4%).

Paring natty gassers down

Sure, following 40 nat gas plays is never dull, but the time has come to filter out the crap.

Here's what I like most:

CLNE — not on fundamentals or technicals, but it is pure clean energy speculation
HGT
PSE
SWN
WPRT — pure clean energy play

Here's what is solid, just not sexy:
BEXP
CHK
DIG (etf)
FCG (etf)
FST
HK
KOG — debt free
KWK
MMR
NBL
NFX
NGS
PETD
PVA
PQ
PXJ
REXX
ROSE
STR
TLM
UNG (etf)
UPL
XOP

Here's what I don't like:
BRNC
COG
CRK
CRZO
DPTR
FTK
GDP
HERO
IEO
RRC
VNR
XCO

XTO

Nat gas update: CLNE

Clean Energy Fuels Corp. 

Thursday, June 3, 2 pm Eastern: 14.85

Thursday, June 10, close: 16.44

Gain: +10.71%

Candlestick analysis: "Wait" (American Bulls)

Summary: Margin and return numbers are scary, and total debt is not listed. A small float (41M) and promising growth rate (28.9%) are working for traders, at least for a little while. Though the float and momentum are appealing, there are several more fundamentally sound natty gassers to play than this. 

Natty Gasser: CLNE

Clean Energy Fuels Corp.

Key Statistics

Profit margin: -36.45%

Operating margin: -24.94%

Return on Assets: -6.74%

Return on Equity: -21.31%

Revenue: 140.24M

Quarterly Revenue Growth (yoy): 28.90%

Quarterly Earnings Growth (yoy): n/a

Total Cash: 66.31M

Total Debt: n/a

Shares Outstanding: 60.86M

Float: 41.35M

% held by Insiders: 34.25%

% held by Institutions: 44.80%
CEO: Andrew Littlefair 1.08M

Candlestick analysis: "Buy Confirmed" today at 15.91 (American Bulls)